黄金犹如坐过山车，上周大幅下杀后，本周初便强力反弹，力度之大令人咋舌。从周线看，整体仍处于震荡区间。月线收官时收出十字星，这一形 态为后市走势增添了诸多悬念。技术上十字星是中继信号，并非顶部信号，但震荡格局尚未打破，何时能迎来趋势性行情，仍是未知数。4小时图 上，黄金在黄金分割位50%处难以站稳，主要支阻均线对金价形成压制，下跌风险隐现。3451以来的下降趋势线形成的侧向支撑，也岌岌可危。日 线上金价位于走平的布林中轨，昨日刺破后收回，后市方向不明。但结合前两日收阳且探底回升的态势，后市看多概率增大，或呈现亚盘回落、欧 盘或美盘上扬的走势，目前上方阻力在3344-3349，下方支撑在3321-3315，操作上建议反弹高空为主，回调做多为辅。 操作策略1：建议反弹3339-3345做空，损3352，目标看3320-3300。 操作策略2：建议回调3305-3300做多，损3290，目标看3325-3345。 生活除了投资，还有诗和远方，以及徐老师。面对市场，实际上就是面对自己，改正缺点，直面错误，严格律己，不说谎言，才是成功的根本。目 前主要研究现货黄金为主，笔者涉足金融以及金融衍生品分析多年，指导经验丰富，以 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 2 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡走高，上涨 0.66%至 9943 | 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.46%至 80390 | | | | | 元/吨；现货进口维系亏损态势。宏观方面，美国 6 月 | ISM 制造业 PMI 指数为 49，连 | | | | | 续四个月萎缩，预期为 48.8，前值为 48.5。美国 5 月 | JOLTS 职位空缺 776.9 万人，高 | | | | | 于预期的 730 万人，前值为 739.1 | 万人，该数值大幅超出市场预期，显示市场韧性。 | | | | | 美联储主席鲍威尔在一次会议上未排除 7 | 月降息可能，称若非关税已降息，关税料将 | | | | | 对通胀产生影响。关税方面，7 月 9 | 日关税重启最后期限，特朗普政府正在调整贸易 | | | | 铜 | | 谈判策略，从寻求全面互惠协议转向更有限的分阶段协议，以避免对部分国家重新征 | | | | | 收严厉关税。库存方面， ...

智昇研究国际金融分析师欧文认为，随着中东地区进展局势缓和，供需关系将成为油价的最核心因素，OPEC+降速增产的概率很大，油价上涨困 难重重。 黄金价格走势图：黄金小时图 原油方面：据消息人士透露，OPEC+计划在8月将原油产量再提高41.1万桶/日，延续了5月以来的增产计划。意味着OPEC+将增产总量提高至178 万桶/日，约占全球原油需求的1.5%，220万桶/日的自愿减产已经基本取消。 另一方面，特朗普在社交媒体上宣布，美国代表与以色列就加沙停火举行谈判，以色列同意60天的停火协议，地区局势有缓和的继续，或将促成 油价进一步下跌。 黄金方面：昨日（7月1日）美联储主席鲍威尔在讲话中表示，如果没有特朗普关税政策的影响，美联储已经开始降息，会采取比目前更宽松的政 策。同时还表示看到了关税规模后才选择了维持利率不变，担心美国的通胀会出现大幅上升。对于7月降息的问题，他表示会根据数据的情况，在 逐次的议息会议作出决定。 从鲍威尔的表述来看，美联储已经做好了降息的准备，将在未来几个月开始行动。对于市场而言，未来押注降息的概率将会上升，对黄金上涨有 利。 技术面：黄金昨日（7月1日）延续上涨，再次收阳线，多头强劲，突 ...

摩根资产管理环球多资产策略师盛楠表示，在美国，"Magnificent7"科技股具备估值和盈利支撑，而标 普500其余股票估值接近历史高位。鉴于科技采用持续推动该板块快速盈利增长，摩根资产管理将美国 投资倾向科技和通讯服务板块。在美国以外，日本和中国香港股票具倍估值支撑。中国股市整体动能增 强，摩根资产管理预计这一趋势将持续。日本股市则在2025年下半年提供追赶机会。 摩根资产管理超配主权债券，预计美国10年期国债收益率将在3.75%至4.50%区间交易。美国收益率曲 线陡化趋势可能持续，但因市场拥挤及美联储定价调整，短期内面临风险。摩根资产管理偏好非美国主 权债券市场，如意大利政府债券和英国国债，而非日本债券。 扩展固定收益方面，摩根资产管理看好高收益债券，尽管利差仅300个基点，但受强劲企业资产负债表 支撑，整体收益率接近7.5%。 股票方面，大多数投资组合接近中性，但通过区域和板块相对价值观点实现针对性风险倾向。摩根资产 管理对经济的乐观看法(增长上行风险更大)支持盈利增长，特别是2026年。然而，许多市场估值远高于 长期平均水平，对未来回报构成阻力。 关税可能导致美国通胀暂时飙升，核心消费者物价指数( ...

消息面： 1、习近平7月1日上午主持召开中央财经委员会第六次会议，研究纵深推进全国统一大市场建设、海洋 经济高质量发展等问题。 2、据国家发改委消息，从7月1日24时起，国内汽、柴油每吨分别上调235元和225元，全国平均来看， 92号汽油、95号汽油和0号柴油每升上调0.18元、0.19元和0.19元。 7月2日消息，三大指数涨跌不一，兵装重组板块跌幅居前。截至今日开盘，沪指报3458.17点，涨 0.01%；深成指报10455.83点，跌0.20%；创指报2140.14点，跌0.36%。 3、针对"国内头部光伏玻璃企业计划于7月开始集体减产30%"的市场消息，亚玛顿董秘刘芹回应称，光 伏玻璃行业减产的消息属实。 4、工信部发布数据，1—5月份，规模以上互联网和相关服务企业完成互联网业务收入7735亿元，同比 增长0.9%。 5、比亚迪上半年新能源汽车销量约214.6万辆，同比增长33.04%。 6、禾元生物科创板IPO在7月1日获上市委会议通过，这是重启科创板第五套上市标准后首家过会企 业。 7、百川股份公告，公司实际控制人、董事长郑铁江被留置。 8、新大陆公告称，设立境外子公司并取得美国MSB牌照，覆盖 ...

Group 1: IPO Activity - A-share IPO activity has surged in the first half of 2025, with a total of 177 companies accepted for listing, marking a significant increase compared to previous years [1] - In June alone, 150 companies were accepted, accounting for over 80% of the total for the first half of the year, setting a new monthly record [1] - The increase is attributed to the gradual easing of the "phase tightening IPO" policy and the withdrawal of non-compliant applications, which has reduced pressure on exchanges and improved acceptance and review efficiency [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Signals - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that most committee members expect a rate cut later this year, depending on economic data [3] - Following Powell's comments, the probability of a rate cut in July rose to approximately 25%, up from less than 20% previously [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Fed will restart rate cuts in September, with expected cuts of 25 basis points in September, October, and December [3] Group 3: Automotive Industry Performance - BYD reported June sales of 382,500 new energy vehicles, up from 341,700 in the same month last year, with a cumulative sales increase of 33.04% year-on-year [8] - Great Wall Motors sold 110,700 vehicles in June, a year-on-year increase of 12.86%, with a total of 197,700 vehicles sold in the first half of the year [8] - Xiaomi's automotive division delivered over 25,000 vehicles in June [8] Group 4: Innovation in Pharmaceuticals - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission issued measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, emphasizing the use of healthcare data for drug research [10] - The measures aim to enhance collaboration among healthcare, insurance, and pharmaceutical sectors to facilitate innovative drug development [10] Group 5: Corporate Developments - He Yuan Bio's IPO application has been approved, marking the first company to pass under the newly restarted fifth set of standards for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [14] - The company plans to raise 2.4 billion yuan for projects including the construction of a human albumin industrialization base and new drug research [14] - Zhongke Environmental announced the acquisition of 100% equity in two environmental companies for a total of 354 million yuan, expanding its waste treatment capabilities [19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, influenced by factors such as interest rate expectations, trade agreements, and market sentiment towards non-farm payroll data. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On July 1, gold prices opened at $3302.91 per ounce, reached a low of $3302.19, and peaked at $3357.90 before closing at $3338.71, marking a daily increase of $35.8 or 1.08% [1][3] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious due to mixed economic data, with expectations for non-farm payroll data influencing gold price movements [3][5] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The decline in the US dollar index and the anticipation of interest rate cuts have provided support for gold prices, despite some technical resistance [3][5] - The market is currently awaiting key employment data, including the Challenger job cuts and ADP employment figures, which are expected to be bearish for gold prices [5] Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials suggest a potential interest rate cut in July, which has bolstered bullish sentiment for gold [7] - President Trump's stance on not extending the July 9 trade negotiation deadline has raised concerns about trade agreements, further increasing market demand for safe-haven assets like gold [7] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates a bearish outlook for gold prices, but they remain above the 5-month moving average, suggesting a potential for further gains unless this support is broken [9] - Short-term technical indicators show that gold prices are facing resistance at the middle Bollinger Band, but support levels are present at various moving averages [10] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Suggested trading levels for gold include support at $3333 or $3320 and resistance at $3348 or $3360 [11]

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 400.17 points, or 0.91%, closing at 44,494.94 [2] - The Nasdaq Composite decreased by 166.84 points, or 0.82%, closing at 20,202.89 [2] - The S&P 500 index fell by 6.94 points, or 0.11%, closing at 6,198.01 [2] - The European Stoxx 50 index declined by 20.81 points, or 0.39%, closing at 5,282.43 [2] - The UK FTSE 100 index rose by 124.37 points, or 0.28%, closing at 8,785.33 [2] - The German DAX index decreased by 236.32 points, or 0.99%, closing at 23,673.29 [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 13.32 points, or 0.39%, closing at 3,457.75 [2] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 211.87 points, or 0.87%, closing at 24,072.28 [2] Legislative Developments - The U.S. Senate passed a comprehensive tax and spending bill supported by President Trump with a vote of 51 to 50, now awaiting a vote in the House of Representatives [4] - The House Speaker Mike Johnson is working to pass the bill before July 4, but success is not guaranteed [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed might consider a rate cut in July, depending on evolving data, emphasizing the need for the Fed to remain apolitical [5] International Investment Changes - Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree establishing new investment mechanisms for foreign investors, allowing investments from "unfriendly countries" and creating special accounts for transactions [6] Political Developments in Thailand - The Thai Constitutional Court has suspended Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha amid impeachment proceedings related to alleged constitutional violations [7] Automotive Industry Performance - BYD reported June sales of 382,600 new energy vehicles, a 17.5% increase year-over-year [9] - Leap Motor achieved a record delivery of 48,000 vehicles in June, up over 138% year-over-year [9] - Xpeng Motors delivered 34,600 vehicles in June, marking a 224% increase year-over-year [9] - NIO delivered 24,900 vehicles in June, a 17.5% increase year-over-year [9] - Xiaomi Motors delivered over 25,000 vehicles in June [9]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell suggested the possibility of interest rate cuts in July but did not formally endorse the idea [1] - European Central Bank President Lagarde indicated that 2025 could be a "critical year" for the status of the US dollar as a global reserve currency [2] - Bank of England Governor Bailey stated that UK interest rates are in a "downward channel," but the motivation for past rate cuts may be limited due to low household debt [2] - Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong mentioned that South Korea's inflation rate is well stabilized, but the central bank is closely monitoring rising financial stability risks when deciding on the timing and pace of rate cuts [2] - Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo noted that Japan's interest rates are currently below neutral levels, but he cautioned against using theoretical rates as a guideline in "cloudy" circumstances [2]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results with the Nasdaq down 0.82%, while the Dow Jones rose by 0.91% [5] - International gold prices increased, with spot gold rising by 1.06% to $3337.33 per ounce [7] - International oil prices also saw a slight increase, with WTI crude oil rising by 0.65% to $65.53 per barrel [8] Economic Policies and Developments - The Central Financial and Economic Committee of China emphasized the need to advance the construction of a unified national market, focusing on legal and regulatory measures to improve product quality and phase out outdated production capacity [10] - The U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that the current tariff system creates uncertainty, which may delay interest rate cuts [6] Automotive Industry Performance - BYD reported a 17.5% year-on-year increase in June sales, totaling 382,600 new energy vehicles [22] - Leap Motor achieved a record high of 48,000 deliveries in June, marking a 138% year-on-year increase [22] - Xpeng Motors delivered 34,600 vehicles in June, a significant increase of 224% year-on-year [23] - NIO delivered 24,900 vehicles in June, reflecting a 17.5% year-on-year growth [26] Corporate Changes - Gree Group appointed "post-80s" Zhao Hui as the new chairman, succeeding "post-70s" Kang Hong, indicating a potential shift in corporate strategy [28] - Baidu announced the appointment of He Haijian as the new CFO, which may bring new perspectives to the company's financial management [30] Industry Trends - The photovoltaic glass industry is experiencing a collective production cut of 30% by major manufacturers, which is expected to help stabilize prices after a period of losses [15] - The competitive landscape in the new energy vehicle market is intensifying, with various companies adjusting strategies in response to sales fluctuations [27]