1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent criticism of the Fed Chair by Trump and the defense of central bank independence by the Treasury Secretary have increased market divergence on the future interest - rate path, weakening dollar confidence and boosting the appeal of gold as a non - interest - bearing asset. Uncertainty in interest - rate expectations has solidified the demand for safe - havens. The agreement between the US and Japan on tariff cuts initially boosted the dollar and Treasury yields, but the subsequent decline was quickly absorbed by the gold price. Multiple investment banks have raised their gold price forecasts for the year to between $3600 and $4000. The underperformance of the US in multiple economic indicators has limited the upward momentum of the dollar and yields, providing macro - environmental support for high gold prices. Geopolitical risks may trigger a rapid inflow of safe - haven funds. Future economic data and the Fed's stance at the meeting will determine the trends of Treasury yields and the dollar, which in turn will affect the gold price. It is recommended to maintain the view of buying on dips, while being cautious of short - term correction risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 778.74 yuan/gram, down 14.16 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 9386 yuan/kg, down 106 yuan. The main - contract positions of Shanghai gold were 213,456 lots, down 8931 lots; those of Shanghai silver were 459,484 lots, down 18,795 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract were 160,396 lots, down 1408 lots; those of Shanghai silver were 135,258 lots, up 1070 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 29,358 kg, up 501 kg; that of silver was 1,188,721 kg, up 239 kg [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 787.97 yuan/gram, up 6.47 yuan; the spot price of silver was 9419 yuan/kg, up 105 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 4.93 yuan/gram, down 1.59 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 73 yuan/kg, up 6 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings were 954.8 tons, unchanged; silver ETF holdings were 15,207.82 tons, up 49.45 tons. Gold CFTC non - commercial net positions were 213,115 contracts, up 10,147 contracts; silver CTFC non - commercial net positions were 59,448 contracts, up 927 contracts. The total quarterly supply of gold was 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the total annual global demand for silver was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 12.86%, up 1.92 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 12.23%, up 0.93 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 22.12%, up 0.8 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.12%, up 0.81 percentage points [2] 3.5 Industry News - The US - Japan tariff negotiation reached an agreement, with the "reciprocal tariff" rate on Japan lowered from 25% to 15%, and Japan will increase imports of US rice. Trump plans to impose 15% - 50% simple tariffs on most other countries and is negotiating with the EU. The EU and the US are moving towards an agreement with a 15% tariff rate on most products. Trump criticized the Fed for lacking "courage" and called for a three - percentage - point interest - rate cut. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. The probability of keeping rates unchanged in September is 37.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 61.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 1.6% [2]

摘要在7月24日的亚洲交易时段，一则重磅利好消息传来——美日成功达成协议，且美欧也渐近达成 15%关税协议。受此积极因素提振，市场对于贸易摩擦的忧虑情绪显著缓解。随着避险需求的迅速降 温，美债收益率呈现全线攀升态势；现货黄金价格跌破3380美元/盎司关口，日内跌幅为0.20%；与此同 时，现货白银亦出现短线急跌行情，日内跌幅高达1.00%，当前报价定格于38.84美元/盎司。 在7月24日的亚洲交易时段，一则重磅利好消息传来——美日成功达成协议，且美欧也渐近达成15%关 税协议。受此积极因素提振，市场对于贸易摩擦的忧虑情绪显著缓解。随着避险需求的迅速降温，美债 收益率呈现全线攀升态势；现货黄金价格跌破3380美元/盎司关口，日内跌幅为0.20%；与此同时，现货 白银亦出现短线急跌行情，日内跌幅高达1.00%，当前报价定格于38.84美元/盎司。 【要闻速递】 据了解谈判情况的外交官透露，欧盟与美国正朝着达成协议的方向迈进，该协议将对大多数产品设定 15%的关税税率。外交官表示，成员国可能准备接受15%的关税，且欧盟官员正推动将这一税率涵盖汽 车等行业。 其中一位外交官补充称，超过一定配额的钢铁和铝进口将面临5 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the bullish trend in gold has ended after a significant drop, with a recent high of 3440 being a resistance level that led to a decline to around 3380, marking a drop of nearly 60 dollars [2][4] - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are heavily influenced by tariff news, with reports suggesting that the US and EU are nearing a tariff agreement, which has diminished the demand for gold as a safe haven [4] - Today's trading is critical, with key resistance levels at 3396 and 3420; if these levels are not maintained, a bearish outlook is expected [6][9] Group 2 - Silver prices also experienced a decline after reaching new highs, with short-term potential for further increases but a likelihood of significant corrections in the medium term [6] - Support levels for silver are identified at 38.7, with further declines expected if this level is breached, potentially leading to prices dropping to 35-34.5 [8] - The trading strategy for both gold and silver emphasizes short positions at resistance levels, with specific targets and stop-loss measures outlined for risk management [9]

周四（7月24日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅波动，目前交投于3390美元附近，有消息称美国和欧盟即将 签署一项协议，该消息让避险需求受到打击，金价周三跌破3400美元的/盎司，跌幅1.30%。 摘要周四（7月24日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅波动，目前交投于3390美元附近，有消息称美国和欧盟 即将签署一项协议，该消息让避险需求受到打击，金价周三跌破3400美元的/盎司，跌幅1.30%。 【要闻速递】 英国《金融时报》周三报道称，欧盟与美国接近达成一项贸易协议，将对欧洲进口商品征收15%关税， 类似于美国特朗普本周与日本达成的协议。 三位知情人士向《金融时报》表示，布鲁塞尔可能会同意所谓的"对等关税"，以避免特朗普威胁祭出的 关税。特朗普此前威胁自8月1日起上调对欧盟关税至30%。 一名欧盟外交官指表示："与日本达成的协议明确了敲诈勒索的条款。大多数成员国都在忍气吞声，可 能会接受这项协议。" 上述知情人士表示，双方将免除部分产品的关税，包括飞机、烈酒与医疗器材。 其中两位知情人士表示，美日达成的协议已促使布鲁塞尔方面勉强接受更高的对等关税税率，以避免一 场破坏性的贸易战。 【技术分析】 黄金价格昨天冲高3438附近 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty of Trump's new policies and high international geopolitical risks continue to support the gold price, and the restructuring of the international trade - currency system will support the long - term bull market of gold. The economic growth slowdown and central bank interest - rate cut expectations caused by Trump's reforms will support the medium - term bull market of gold. However, high price - to - earnings ratios mean increased price volatility, and in the third quarter, attention should be paid to the impact of the implementation of the US fiscal expansion bill and rising inflation pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut timing [6]. - In the short term, London gold is expected to continue to oscillate within the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce, waiting for the next round of breakthrough and upward trend. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4][6]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: Trump's government pressured the Fed to cut interest rates, causing the US dollar exchange rate and US Treasury yields to decline significantly, which boosted the price of precious metals with strong financial attributes. London gold rebounded close to $3440 per ounce. However, the information about the US reaching trade agreements with the Philippines and Japan in the Asian session on the 23rd weakened the safe - haven demand for gold. Currently, the volatility of gold has increased, but the medium - term upward trend remains good. London gold may oscillate within the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise again. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions. This week, attention should be paid to the preliminary PMI values for July in Europe and the US and the ECB's interest - rate meeting [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: Since late April, London gold has been oscillating within the range of $3100 - $3500 per ounce. Although the cooling of international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill have weakened the safe - haven and allocation demand for gold, the uncertainty of Trump's new policies and high geopolitical risks continue to support the price. It is expected that in the short term, London gold will continue to oscillate within the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions. Traders with a bearish mindset can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage strategy after the upward momentum of silver fades [6]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 794.01, up 1.04%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9500, up 1.05%; the Gold T + D closed at 788.11, up 1.04%; the Silver T + D closed at 9475, up 1.14% [5]. II. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - The US Treasury Secretary, Bezant, will meet with the Chinese Treasury Secretary in Stockholm next week to discuss whether to extend the deadline for the agreement reached on August 12 to avoid a significant tariff increase. China's embassy in the US said that the implementation details of the trade consensus reached by Trump and Xi Jinping have been finalized [18]. - US President Trump said that a large - scale deal has been reached with Japan, and Japan will pay a 15% reciprocal tariff to the US and invest $550 billion in the US as required. The EU's trade commissioner said that the upcoming China - EU summit is an opportunity to discuss key trade and investment issues [18]. - Trump criticized Fed Chairman Powell, saying that he is a fool for keeping interest rates too high and that Powell will step down in eight months. Trump believes that the policy interest rate should be 3 percentage points lower than the current level. Bezant said that there is no need for Powell to step down immediately and that Powell should adjust the scale of the Fed's non - monetary policy functions as a legacy of his tenure [18].

Core Insights - Gold prices have reached a nearly five-week high, with COMEX gold futures rising 1.63% to $3410.3 per ounce and spot gold surpassing $3400 at $3406.4 per ounce, marking a 1.43% increase [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also increased, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Lao Miao seeing a rise of 7-10 yuan per gram, returning to the range of 1000-1021 yuan per gram, approaching historical highs from June [1] Driving Factors - There is a surge in safe-haven demand due to the impending 30% tariffs on the EU by the U.S. and a stalemate in negotiations, causing market panic [2] - Concerns over the credibility of the Federal Reserve, following accusations against Chairman Powell and criticism from Treasury Secretary Yellen, have raised fears of a dollar credit crisis [2] - The dollar index has dropped 0.6% to a five-week low, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has reached a one-week low of 4.348%, reducing the cost of holding gold [2] Market Impact - Gold mining companies are experiencing significant profit increases, with Zhongrun Resources reporting a net profit growth of 161-191%, Western Gold seeing a rise of 96%-142%, and Zijin Mining achieving a record net profit of 23.2 billion yuan in the first half of the year [4] - Consumer behavior is shifting, with essential buyers opting for lighter gold jewelry (average 30 grams) or rental models, while investors face risks of being trapped at high prices due to lower buyback prices [5] Future Trends and Key Variables - There is a divergence in institutional views regarding future gold prices, with central banks, particularly in China, increasing gold reserves for eight consecutive months, potentially pushing prices above $3500 if continued [6] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions and the potential escalation of the U.S.-EU tariff conflict are likely to sustain high demand for gold as a safe haven [6] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has risen to 59%, which, along with a weakening dollar, is favorable for gold [6] - Inflation expectations are increasing, driven by a slowdown in U.S. wage growth and potential fiscal stimulus, enhancing gold's appeal as a hedge [6] Investment Recommendations - Short-term strategies should focus on monitoring resistance levels between $3420-$3450 and adjusting support levels to $3360, while being cautious of potential disruptions from the August 1 tariff implementation [7] - Long-term strategies suggest prioritizing physical investments in gold bars or coins with low premiums and avoiding high craftsmanship fees associated with intricate gold jewelry [12]

7月23日，市场全天冲高回落，沪指3600点得而复失。黄金市场表现亮眼，华安黄金ETF（518880）当 日上涨0.99%，收报7.548元，换手率达3.94%，成交额23.68亿元。 华安黄金ETF（518880）成立于2013年7月18日，以国内黄金现货价格为业绩比较基准，由基金经理许 之彦管理，投资目标为紧密跟踪黄金现货价格表现。投资者或可通过华安黄金ETF（518880）及其联接 基金（A类000216，C类000217）采取分批布局或定投策略参与投资。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 截至当日15：15，伦敦金现货价格盘中最高触及3438.8美元/盎司，逼近6月16日创下的近期高位3451美 元/盎司。金价走强主要受以下因素支撑：美指和美债疲软增强了黄金对投资者的吸引力，市场预期美 国可能出现货币政策调整和经济增速放缓，全球多国央行增储黄金和全球避险需求为国际金价提供了支 持。在地缘局势紧张和美国关税政策不确定性加剧的情况下，无论机构还是个人投资者均继续将黄金视 为投资组合多元化的重要工具。 独立分析师吕超认为，由于特朗普政府 ...

Group 1 - The precious metals market in 2025 is experiencing unprecedented heat, with silver prices reaching a 14-year high of over $39 per ounce, marking a 33% increase year-to-date, while gold has risen by 27% in the same period [1][3] - As of July 23, 2025, the London gold spot price is reported at $3425.45 per ounce, with Shanghai gold futures exceeding 792 yuan per gram, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 20% [3] - The World Gold Council reported a net inflow of 552 tons into global gold ETFs in Q1 2025, a 170% year-on-year increase, with several domestic gold ETFs ranking among the top ten globally [3] Group 2 - The surge in demand for safe-haven assets is driven by geopolitical tensions and a trend towards de-globalization, leading to increased allocations in gold among wealthy individuals, with the proportion rising from 5% in 2024 to 11% in 2025 [4] - Industrial demand for silver is on the rise, particularly in the photovoltaic and electronics sectors, with an expected global solar installation capacity exceeding 600 GW in 2025, consuming over 670 million ounces of silver [4] - Retail participation in gold investments is increasing, with domestic gold ETFs showing over a 20% increase year-to-date, and platforms like Alipay attracting many new investors [4] Group 3 - Despite the market's enthusiasm, institutional views are divided, with HSBC raising its 2025 gold price forecast to $3215 per ounce, while Macquarie remains cautious, predicting silver prices to average around $36 per ounce in Q3 2025 [5] - Experts generally agree on a long-term upward trend for precious metals, with expectations of significant price movements in the second half of 2025 due to geopolitical risks and central bank purchasing trends [5] - The World Bank emphasizes that rising geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases will support precious metal assets in 2025-2026 [5] Group 4 - Regulatory compliance is becoming a focal point for investors, with five ministries in China issuing guidelines to strengthen management of gold trading platforms, ensuring traceability and data integrity [7] - Compliance platforms like Gold盛贵金属 are implementing strict transaction protocols and real-time verification systems to enhance investor confidence [7] Group 5 - For novice investors, it is recommended to use simulation accounts to familiarize themselves with trading indicators and to control risks effectively during live trading [8] - Advanced strategies suggest combining macro hedging with event-driven tactics, such as pre-setting orders based on central bank announcements to capture short-term price movements [8] - Risk management strategies include a "core + satellite" approach, maintaining a long-term holding while dynamically adjusting positions based on market conditions [8]

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading below 9487, with a recent price of 9476, reflecting a 0.94% increase from the opening price of 9442 [1] - The highest price reached today was 9526, while the lowest was 9390, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in silver futures [1] - The market's risk appetite has increased following President Trump's announcement of a trade agreement with Japan, leading to a nearly 4% rise in the Japanese stock market and a new high for the Shanghai Composite Index since October of last year [3] Group 2 - The trade agreement includes a reduction in tariffs on Japanese products from a threatened 25% to 15%, which may further enhance market risk appetite and reduce demand for safe-haven assets like silver [3] - The U.S. dollar index is hovering near a two-week low, and the decline in U.S. Treasury yields is providing some support for silver prices [3] - Analysts suggest that if more trade agreements are reached before August, it could further boost risk appetite and weaken gold demand, although a continued weak dollar may allow gold prices to rise to $3500 [3] Group 3 - The silver market is currently in a bullish trend, with recent highs around 9540, although there has been some pullback without forming a top pattern [4] - Key support levels for silver are identified at 9350 and 9250, with a break below 9350 indicating a potential shift from strong to weak momentum [4]

7月23日国内黄金市场动态：国内品牌金店金价继续上涨，整体涨幅超8元/克。其中，周生生的黄金价 格上涨8元/克，报价1029元/克，为最高价金店。上海中国黄金上涨12元/克，报价981元/克，还是最低 价金店。今日最高与最低金店间价差扩大至52元/克。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | 今日金店黄金价格一览（2025年7月23日） | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1024 | 元/克 | 10 | 涨 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1023 | 元/克 | 8 | 涨 | | 周大福黄金价格 | 1023 | 元/克 | 8 | 涨 | | 周六福黄金价格 | 1003 | 元/克 | 8 | 涨 | | 金至尊黄金价格 | 1023 | 元/克 | 8 | 涨 | | 老凤祥黄金价格 | 1024 | 元/克 | 8 | 涨 | | 潮宏基黄金价格 | 1023 | 元/克 | 8 | 涨 | | 周生生黄金价格 | 1029 | 元/克 | 8 | 涨 | | 菜百 ...