| 甲醇日评20250714: 港口逐步累库,单边驱动有限 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/7/11 | 2025/7/10 | 变化值 (絕对值) | 变化值 (相对值) | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2443.00 | 2463.00 | -20.00 | -0.81% | | MA05 甲醇期货价格 | 元/吨 | 2371.00 | 2380.00 | -9.00 | -0.38% | | (收盘价) MA09 | 元/吨 | 2370.00 | 2398.00 | -28.00 | -1.17% | | 太せ | 元/吨 | 2367.50 | 2390.00 | -22.50 | -0.94% | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2250.00 | 2255.00 | -5.00 | -0.22% | | 广东 期现价格 | 元/吨 | 2390.00 | 2412.50 | -22.50 | -0.93% | | 申醇观货价格 及其差 陕西 (日度均价) | 元/吨 | 2055.00 | 204 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年7月14日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年6月份国内沥青总计划排产量为239.8万吨，环比增幅3.5%,同 比增幅12.7%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为33.9166%，环比增加0.779个百分点，全国 样本企业出货26.12万吨，环比增加10.91%,样本企业产量为56.6万吨，环比增加2.35%,样本企 业装置检修量预估为58.2万吨，环比减少2.51%,本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将 增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为32.7%，环比增加0.03个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青 开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Unilateral not to chase short, positive spread arbitrage for monthly spreads. Pay attention to the compression position of forward PXN. The supply and demand of PX are relatively stable, with the Asian PX operating rate at 73.6% (-0.5%). The supply and demand of PX in July are still tight, and the monthly spread is expected to remain strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the compression position of far - month PXN [5]. - PTA: Unilateral not to chase short, positive spread arbitrage for monthly spreads. Go long on PX and short on PTA for the 01 contract, and go long on PR and short on PTA. The supply of PTA increases while the demand decreases, and the polyester operating rate drops. Although there is supply pressure, the downside space of the unilateral price is limited due to the low raw material inventory of polyester factories, and the processing fee is still under downward pressure [6]. - MEG: Unilateral oscillatory market, positive spread arbitrage for monthly spreads. The supply of MEG increases while the demand decreases, but the inventory is at a low level, and the coal price rebounds, so the MEG price rebounds. In the case of limited import increase, go for positive spread arbitrage for ethylene glycol monthly spreads when the price is low [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - PX: A 210,000 - ton PX unit in a Japanese factory stopped due to a reforming unit failure, initially expected to last about 20 days. Another 210,000 - ton/year PX production line of Idemitsu in Japan stopped on July 11 due to technical problems, and the exact time for repair and restart is unknown until next week. The Asian PX price further declined during the closing assessment, with the trading price of September short - haul cargo between Glencore and Hengli at $834/ton [3][5]. Futures Data | Futures | PX Main | PTA Main | MEG Main | PF Main | SC Main | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6694 | 4700 | 4305 | 6388 | 513.9 | | Change | 6782 | -42 | -20 | -52 | -8.6 | | Change Rate | -88 | -0.89% | -0.46% | -0.81% | -1.65% | | Monthly Spread | PX9 - 1 | PTA9 - 1 | MEG9 - 1 | PF8 - 9 | SC8 - 9 | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 74 | 38 | -26 | 120 | 9.7 | | Previous Day's Closing Price | 64 | 12 | -33 | 102 | 10.2 | | Change | 10 | 26 | 7 | 18 | -0.5 | [2] Spot Data | Spot | PX CFR China ($/ton) | PTA East China (Yuan/ton) | MEG Spot | Naphtha MOPJ | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Price | 836.67 | 4715 | 4383 | 584.25 | 72.63 | | Previous Day's Price | 851.67 | 4735 | 4386 | 591 | 70.58 | | Change | -15 | -20 | -3 | -6.75 | 2.04 | | Spot Processing Fee | PX - Naphtha Spread | PTA Processing Fee | Staple Fiber Processing Fee | Bottle Chip Processing Fee | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | | Yesterday's Price | 256.67 | 158.43 | 304.31 | -410.69 | -7.42 | | Previous Day's Price | 251.42 | 165.64 | 301.29 | -453.71 | -7.42 | | Change | 5.25 | -7.21 | 3.02 | 43.02 | 0 | [2] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 - PTA trend intensity: 1 - MEG trend intensity: 1 Note: The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2 (integers). The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation [2]. - The upstream supply of soda ash is at a high level, the improvement of terminal demand is limited, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1217 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1200 yuan/ton, and the main basis was - 17 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract decreased by 1.14%, the low - end price in Shahe increased by 0.50%, and the main basis decreased by 54.05% compared with the previous value [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe market was 1200 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the North China ammonia - soda process was - 134.30 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production process was - 113.50 yuan/ton. The production profit was at the lowest level in the same period in history [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 81.32%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly output was 70.89 tons, including 40.01 tons of heavy soda ash, and the output was at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there was a large - scale expansion of soda ash production capacity. The planned new production capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and 750 tons in 2025 (with an actual production of 100 tons) [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash was 92.40% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.84 tons, and the operating rate was 75.68%, showing a stable recovery [28]. - The price of photovoltaic glass continued to decline. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry cut production, and the daily melting volume in production decreased significantly [31]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 186.34 tons, an increase of 2.98% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the five - year average [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, and other indicators of soda ash over the years, as well as the corresponding supply - demand differences and growth rates [35]. Influencing Factors - Positive factors: The rebound of the downstream glass market boosted the sentiment of the soda ash market [3]. - Negative factors: The supply of soda ash was at a high level, the improvement of terminal demand was limited, and the inventory was at a high level in the same period. The pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry had not been effectively improved [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 14 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 乐观情绪主导，矿价高位运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 乐观情绪未退，矿价高位运行，但铁矿石供需格局并无改善，淡季钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗 延续下行，相对利好则是钢厂盈利状况尚可，减量空间有限。同时，港口到货低位回升，而矿商发运 大幅减量，海外矿石供应明显收缩，相应的内矿生产同样趋弱，供应短期收缩。目前来看，政策利好 预期 ...

商 品 研 究 豆粕：USDA 报告偏空&天气良好，或偏弱震荡 豆一：现货稳定，盘面仍震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 2025 年 07 月 14 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） 涨 跌 | | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2509 （元/吨） | 4101 -9 | （-0.22%） | 4110 | +12 （+0.29%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 2976 | +33（+1.12%） | 2975 | +4（+0.13%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1007.5 | -6.25（-0.62%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 284 | -1.3（-0.46%） | | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 2850～2890， 较昨+20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - For corn, the international corn price has an advantage due to the good initial growth condition in the US. In the domestic market, the cooling of imported corn auction transactions, strong selling intention of grain holders, increasing feed substitution of wheat, and weakening feed demand have led to a decline in corn prices. The corn futures price continued to fall this week, showing overall weakness [8]. - For corn starch, although the production loss of corn starch enterprises has reduced the supply pressure, the demand in the civilian and paper - making markets is poor, and the inventory has increased. Affected by the decline of corn prices, the starch futures price has also shown a weak oscillation recently [12]. - The strategy for both corn and corn starch is to focus on short - term trading [7][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Key Points Summary Corn - **Market Review**: The corn futures price fluctuated and declined this week. The closing price of the main 2509 contract was 2306 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The excellent rate of US corn is high, and the international corn price has an advantage. In the domestic market, the cooling of auction transactions, increased market supply, and substitution of wheat have led to weakening prices [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on short - term trading [7]. Corn Starch - **Market Review**: The Dalian corn starch futures price fluctuated and declined. The closing price of the main 2509 contract was 2656 yuan/ton, a decrease of 61 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [12]. - **Market Outlook**: The production loss has reduced the supply pressure, but the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased. Affected by the decline of corn prices, the starch price has shown a weak oscillation [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on short - term trading [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position Changes - The corn futures September contract continued to decline, with a total position of 1030900 lots, an increase of 85554 lots compared with the previous week. The corn starch futures September contract also declined, with a total position of 247864 lots, an increase of 69516 lots compared with the previous week [18]. Top 20 Net Position Changes - The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 30902, and the net short position decreased compared with the previous week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 9506, and the net short position also decreased [24]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipt volume of yellow corn was 196479, and that of corn starch was 21979 [30]. Spot Price and Basis - As of July 10, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2426.86 yuan/ton, and the basis between the September futures price and the spot price was + 120 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2920 yuan/ton, with a slightly decreasing trend. The basis between the September futures price and the Jilin spot price was 194 yuan/ton [35][39]. Futures Inter - month Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of corn was 75 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 9 - 1 spread of starch was 44 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [45]. Futures Spread - The spread between the September contracts of starch and corn was 350 yuan/ton. In the 28th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 410 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [53]. Substitute Spread - As of July 10, 2025, the spread between wheat and corn was 18.64 yuan/ton. In the 28th week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 139 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [58]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation Corn - **Supply Side** - **Port Inventory**: As of July 4, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 88.6 tons, a decrease of 15.5 tons compared with the previous week, and the foreign trade inventory was 1.3 tons, an increase of 1 ton compared with the previous week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 259.6 tons, a decrease of 12.8 tons compared with the previous week, and the shipping volume was 41.8 tons, an increase of 16.6 tons compared with the previous week [49]. - **Monthly Import**: In May 2025, the total import volume of ordinary corn was 190,000 tons, a decrease of 860,000 tons (81.9%) compared with the same period last year and an increase of 10,000 tons compared with the previous month [67]. - **Feed Enterprise Inventory**: As of July 10, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 31.58 days, a decrease of 0.38 days compared with the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.19%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.38% [71]. - **Demand Side** - **Livestock Inventory**: As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 417.31 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. At the end of May, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 and a year - on - year increase of 1.15% [75]. - **Breeding Profit**: As of July 4, 2025, the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 119.72 yuan/head, and that of purchased piglets was - 26.26 yuan/head [79]. - **Processing Profit**: As of July 11, 2025, the processing profit of corn starch in Jilin was - 66 yuan/ton. The processing profit of corn alcohol in Henan was - 585 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 399 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 85 yuan/ton [84]. Corn Starch - **Supply Side** - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of July 9, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.436 million tons, an increase of 1.88% [88]. - **Starch Production and Inventory**: From July 3 to July 9, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 536,700 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons compared with the previous week; the national corn starch production was 259,400 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons compared with the previous week; the weekly operation rate was 50.14%, a decrease of 1.06% compared with the previous week. As of July 9, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.337 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons compared with the previous week, a weekly increase of 1.83%, a monthly increase of 2.14%, and a year - on - year increase of 26.97% [92]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis - As of July 11, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2509 contract of corn was 7.67%, a decrease of 1.05% compared with 8.72% in the previous week. The implied volatility continued to decline this week and was at a slightly higher level than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [95].

行业 沥青日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 11 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（碳市场工业硅） 研究员 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The report suggests waiting for an opportunity to go long on MTO profit. The 09 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500, and a unilateral position is advised to be on the sidelines [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased by 29 yuan/ton (-1.18%) to 2434 yuan/ton; MA05 decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-0.84%) to 2360 yuan/ton; MA09 decreased by 26 yuan/ton (-1.08%) to 2372 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In太仓, the price increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.42%) to 2390 yuan/ton; in山东, it decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-0.88%) to 2255 yuan/ton; in广东, it increased by 12.5 yuan/ton (0.52%) to 2412.5 yuan/ton; in内蒙古, it increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.51%) to 1972.5 yuan/ton. Prices in陕西, 川渝, and 湖北 remained unchanged [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of 太仓现货 - MA increased by 39 yuan/ton to -44 yuan/ton [1]. - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: Coal and industrial natural gas prices remained unchanged [1]. 2. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: Coal - based methanol profit remained at 423.4 yuan/ton, while natural - gas - based methanol profit remained at -590 yuan/ton [1]. - **MTO Profit**: Northwest MTO profit increased by 25 yuan/ton (5.47%) to 481.8 yuan/ton, and East China MTO profit increased by 13 yuan/ton (1.82%) to -701.07 yuan/ton [1]. - **Methanol Downstream Profit**: Acetic acid profit decreased by 6.04 yuan/ton (-1.52%) to 391.09 yuan/ton; formaldehyde profit decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-4.37%) to -238.8 yuan/ton; 二曲監 profit decreased by 100 yuan/ton (-16.23%) to 516 yuan/ton. MTBE profit remained unchanged [1]. 3. Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2509 opened at 2370 yuan/ton, closed at 2398 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 676921 lots and an open interest of 695469, showing a decrease in volume and position [1]. - **Foreign**: Non - Iranian methanol cargoes for far - month arrival are priced at 270 - 280 US dollars/ton, with some offers up 2%. In other Middle - East regions, far - month arrival cargoes are negotiated at +0.5 - 1.5%, with some transactions at +1%. Southeast Asian methanol plants are running stably, but demand is weak, and local prices are weakly adjusted [1]. 4. Trading Strategy - The recent improvement in macro sentiment and policy expectations has boosted the bullish sentiment in commodities, and the rise in coal prices has also driven the rebound of methanol. From a valuation perspective, upstream coal - based profits are still high, while downstream comprehensive profits are relatively poor, and methanol valuation is relatively high. From a driving perspective, the supply - demand drive of methanol is not strong, and the basis in East China needs to converge. The 09 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500. A unilateral position is advised to be on the sidelines, and it is recommended to wait for an opportunity to go long on MTO profit [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - For lead, due to no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, processing fees are likely to rise. Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase, while secondary lead production is at a relatively low level due to raw material shortages and high costs. As the demand gradually shifts from the off - season to the peak season, the drag on lead prices may ease. Overall, raw material shortages and peak - season expectations support lead prices, but high prices may limit the upside [1]. - For zinc, zinc smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. The tight supply of zinc concentrate is expected to improve, and smelter production and profits are improving. However, high zinc prices and weak downstream demand lead to limited upside for zinc prices, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the positive factors fade [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Market Data - **Lead**: On July 11, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,000 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day), the closing price of the Shanghai lead futures main contract was 17,230 yuan/ton (up 0.32% from the previous day), the basis was - 230 yuan/ton, and the trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 6.39% to 30,897 lots, while the open interest increased by 0.52% to 52,534 lots [1]. - **Zinc**: On July 11, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,330 yuan/ton (up 1.09% from the previous day), the closing price of the Shanghai zinc futures main contract was 22,385 yuan/ton (up 1.20% from the previous day), the basis was - 55 yuan/ton, and the trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 5.21% to 146,456 lots, while the open interest decreased by 1.85% to 112,634 lots [1]. Industry News - **Lead**: An East - China secondary lead smelter is expected to increase production by about 3,500 tons compared to last month. A Central - China primary lead smelter resumed normal production after a weekend equipment failure. As of July 10, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions was 61,100 tons, an increase of 4,200 tons from July 3 and 3,200 tons from July 7 [1]. - **Zinc**: A North - China zinc mine plans to conduct a 10 - day maintenance in August, affecting nearly 1,000 metal tons of zinc concentrate. The recent tender result of a North - China zinc mine was 5,450 yuan/ton (including 20 - 80 sharing). As of July 10, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven regions was 90,300 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons from July 3 and 1,200 tons from July 7 [1]