Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The coke market is experiencing a bottom - side oscillation, and the coking coal market is also at the bottom with oscillations due to the inspection by the environmental protection supervision team [1][2] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: JM2509 closed at 799.5 yuan/ton with no change, J2509 closed at 1364 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton or 0.80%. JM2509 had a trading volume of 521,082 lots, an open interest of 521,014 lots with an increase of 1,529 lots. J2509 had a trading volume of 26,256 lots, an open interest of 56,307 lots with an increase of 591 lots [2] - **Spot Prices**: For coking coal, the prices of some varieties such as Jinquan Meng 5 clean coal decreased, while others remained stable. For coke, all the prices remained unchanged. The coking coal and coke warehouse - receipt costs also showed little change [2] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of JM2509 for Meng 5 decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and for Meng 3 decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The basis of J2509 for Hebei quasi - dry quenched coke and Shanxi quasi - first - grade delivered - to - factory increased by 11 yuan/ton. The spreads of JM2509 - JM2601 and J2509 - J2601 both decreased [2] Price and Position Situation - **Northern Port Coking Coal Quotes**: The prices of coking coal at different northern ports vary, with Jingtang Port's Shanxi prime coking coal at 1,320 yuan/ton, and the prices of Australian prime coking coal at other ports ranging from 1,160 to 1,385 yuan/ton [2] - **May 27th Fenwei CCI Metallurgical Coal Index**: The prices of S1.3 G75 prime coking coal from Shanxi, Meng 5, and Meng 3 decreased by 30, 10, and 5 yuan/ton respectively [3] - **Position Situation**: On May 27th, for the coking coal JM2509 contract, long positions increased by 1,401 lots and short positions decreased by 2,647 lots. For the coke J2509 contract, long positions increased by 593 lots and short positions increased by 288 lots [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is both 0 [4]

2025 年 5 月 28 日 硅铁：需求预期转弱，低位震荡 锰硅：需求预期转弱，低位震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 资料来源：钢联、同花顺、国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2507 | 5452 | -54 | 237,913 | 194,866 | | 期 货 | 硅铁2509 | 5358 | -62 | 131,129 | 177,670 | | | 锰硅2506 | 5560 | -56 | 2,920 | 15,188 | | | 锰硅2509 | 5616 | -52 | 293,076 | 440,811 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | 现 货 | 硅铁:FeSi75-B:汇总价格:内蒙 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The day - session decline of fuel oil continues, with short - term weak and volatile trends. Low - sulfur fuel oil dropped significantly during the night session, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market strengthened [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Changes**: - For FU2507, the closing price was 2,972 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 2.14%, and the night - session increase was 0.34%. For FU2508, the closing price was 2,982 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.53%, and the night - session decline was 3.22%. - For LU2507, the closing price was 3,512 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.51%, and the night - session decline was 0.20%. For LU2508, the closing price was 3,505 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.14%, and the night - session decline was 1.88% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: - The trading volume of FU2507 was 541,397, a decrease of 166,483, and the open interest was 123,841, a decrease of 14,474. - The trading volume of FU2508 was 40,399, a decrease of 46,726, and the open interest was 31,619, a decrease of 6,774. - The trading volume of LU2507 was 61,702, a decrease of 17,667, and the open interest was 47,297, a decrease of 5,610. - The trading volume of LU2508 was 46,356, an increase of 822, and the open interest was 64,572, a decrease of 3,179 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total market warehouse receipts for fuel oil were 28,950, with no change. There were no warehouse receipts for low - sulfur fuel oil and no changes [1]. - **Spot Prices and Changes**: - Singapore MOPS: The price of high - sulfur (3.5%S) was 420.5 US dollars/ton, a daily decline of 1.89%; the price of low - sulfur (0.5%S) was 488.9 US dollars/ton, a daily decline of 0.84%. - Singapore Bunker: The price of high - sulfur was 427.0 US dollars/ton, a daily decline of 1.16%; the price of low - sulfur was 500.0 US dollars/ton, a daily decline of 0.99%. Similar price declines were seen in other regions such as Fujeirah, Zhoushan, Shanghai, Tokyo, and South Korea [1]. - **Price Spreads**: - The spread of FU07 - 08 was - 10 yuan/ton, and the spread of LU07 - 08 was 7 yuan/ton. The spread of LU07 - FU07 was 540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan compared to the settlement spread. - The spread between FU2507 and Singapore MOPS (3.5%S) was - 53.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.9 yuan compared to the previous day. The spread between LU2507 and Singapore MOPS (0.5%S) was - 5.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.6 yuan compared to the previous day. The spread between Singapore MOPS (0.5%S - 3.5%S) was 68.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4.0 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of fuel oil was 0, and the trend intensity of low - sulfur fuel oil was also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For PX, supply is tight, inventory is decreasing, and the monthly spread remains strong. Hold a long PX and short PTA position. Pay attention to the return of the PX - MX spread. With an increase in the load of a certain PX plant in East China in June and the upcoming commissioning of a new PTA plant of Honggang Petrochemical, the PX supply - demand pattern is tight, so continue the long PX and short naphtha/PTA operation [4]. - For PTA, continue to hold the position of compressing processing fees. The mid - term idea for the monthly spread is to go long on dips. With filament factories reducing loads and overall polyester load dropping to 91%, the production cut exceeds expectations. However, due to the planned maintenance of plants such as Fuhai Chuang in June - July, the inventory is still in a decreasing pattern, and the PTA monthly spread will remain strong [4]. - For MEG, the upside space for the single - side is limited. Go long on PTA and short MEG. There are more unplanned shutdowns and maintenance of MEG plants, and the MEG operating rate has dropped to 58%. As the single - side price of ethylene glycol rebounds and the prices of upstream coal and crude oil fall, especially the profit of coal - based MEG recovers quickly, the willingness to start coal - based MEG plants in the future will significantly increase. The short - term monthly spread is still strong, but further chasing the high is not recommended [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Daily Closing Prices and Changes**: On May 27, 2025, the PX main contract closed at 6706 with a daily change of 0.5%, PTA at 4740 (0.3% change), MEG at 4387 (- 0.1% change), PF at 6456 (0.4% change), and SC at 3512 (- 0.5% change) [1]. - **Monthly Spreads and Changes**: On May 27, 2025, the PX (9 - 1) monthly spread was 216 with a daily change of 28, PTA (9 - 1) was 162 (16 change), MEG (9 - 1) was 71 (11 change), PF(7 - 8) was 24 (14 change), and PX - EB07 was - 291 (64 change) [1]. - **Inter - variety Spreads and Changes**: On May 27, 2025, the PTA09 - 0.65PX09 spread was 381 with a daily change of - 5, PTA09 - MEG09 was 353 (22 change), PTA07 - PF07 was - 1608 (- 4 change), PF07 processing fee on the disk was 825 (14 change), and PTA09 - LU09 was 1325 (32 change) [1]. - **Basis and Changes**: On May 27, 2025, the PX basis was 199 with a daily change of - 32, PTA basis was 165 (15 change), MEG basis was 135 (10 change), PF basis was - 40 (- 90 change), and the PX - naphtha spread was 268 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Numbers and Changes**: On May 27, 2025, the PTA warehouse receipt number was 56308 with a daily change of - 258, ethylene glycol was 10630 (- 20 change), short - fiber was 0 (- 1109 change), PX was 0, and SC was 4029000 [1]. 3.2 Market Overview - **PX**: A 300,000 - ton PX plant in Taiwan, China is restarting after a 45 - day maintenance from April 9. A 1 - million - ton PX plant in East China plans to increase its load to about 90% in June after reducing the load in mid - April. A 400,000 - ton PX plant in South Korea plans to restart around mid - June after shutting down in early February [3]. - **MEG**: A 400,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Guangdong has restarted normally after a maintenance in early May. From May 26 to June 2, the expected arrival volume at Zhangjiagang is about 10,000 tons, at Taicang Pier about 42,000 tons, at Ningbo about 24,000 tons, and at Shanghai about 0 tons, with a total planned arrival at major ports of about 76,000 tons [3]. - **Polyester**: On the 27th, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were differentiated, with the average sales estimated at just over 50% by 3:30 pm. The sales of several factories were 50%, 45%, 20%, 750%, 50%, 40%, 50%, 30%, 50%, 0%, 200%, 30%, 80%, 40%, 40%, 70%, 30%, 20%, 50%, 40%, 20%, 80% respectively. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber on the 27th improved slightly compared with the 26th, with an average sales of 55% by 3:00 pm, and the sales of some factories were 100%, 60%, 60%, 100%, 30%, 30%, 30%, 40%, 60% [3][4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene is 0, PTA is 0, and MEG is - 1 [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - PX: Unilateral weakness, strong monthly spread, hold long PX and short PTA, focus on PX - MX spread regression, maintain long PX and short naphtha/PTA due to tight supply - demand [4] - PTA: Unilateral weakness, hold PTA processing fee compression positions, mid - term monthly spread is to buy on dips, de - stocking pattern in June - July, monthly spread remains strong [5] - MEG: Limited upside for unilateral price, long PTA and short MEG, short - term monthly spread is strong but not recommended to chase higher [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: On May 26, 2025, PX closed at 6674, PTA at 4724, MEG at 4393, PF at 6430, and SC at 3530. Daily changes were 0.3%, 0.2%, - 0.2%, - 0.3%, and 0.6% respectively [1] - **Monthly Spread**: On May 26, 2025, PX (9 - 1) was 188, PTA (9 - 1) was 146, MEG (9 - 1) was 60, PF(7 - 8) was 10, and PX - EB07 was - 355. Daily changes were 4, - 2, 8, - 2, and 162 respectively [1] - **Inter - variety Spread**: On May 26, 2025, PTA09 - 0.65PX09 was 386, PTA09 - MEG09 was 331, PTA07 - PF07 was - 1604, PF07盘面加工费 was 811, and PTA09 - LU09 was 1293. Daily changes were - 6, 18, 34, - 35, and - 18 respectively [1] - **Basis**: On May 26, 2025, PX basis was 231, PTA basis was 165, MEG basis was 135, PF basis was - 40, and PX - naphtha spread was 268. Daily changes were 33, 15, 10, - 90, and 2 respectively [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: On May 26, 2025, PTA warehouse receipts were 56308, ethylene glycol were 10630, short - fiber were 0, PX were 0, and SC were 4029000. Daily changes were - 258, - 20, - 1109 respectively [1] Market Overview - **PX**: A 700,000 - ton PX unit in the Northeast is restarting, a 9 - million - ton PX unit of a major factory in East China is expected to resume soon, PX price rose, and the valuation on May 26 was 834 dollars/ton, up 8 dollars from last Friday [3] - **PTA**: A 50,000 - ton IPA unit in North China is under maintenance, a 1 - million - ton PTA unit in Southwest China has restarted [3] - **MEG**: A 1 - million - ton/year EO - EG co - production unit in East China has restarted, a 300,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol unit in Anhui has reduced load, a 150,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol unit in East China stopped, and a 300,000 - ton/year unit in Guizhou is restarting [3][4] - **Polyester**: A 200,000 - ton polyester unit in Wujiang is restarting, a 200,000 - ton polyester bottle - chip unit in East China is under maintenance, Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak with an average sales rate of about 30%, and direct - spun polyester staple fiber sales were also weak with an average sales rate of 45% [4] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: - 1, PTA trend intensity: - 1, MEG trend intensity: - 1 [5]

Group 1 - Report Title: Zinc: Refinery Disturbances on the Rise, but Sustainability May Be Limited [1] - Analyst: Mo Xiaoxiong, Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0019413, Email: moxiaoxiong@gtht.com [1] Group 2 - Shanghai Zinc Main Contract Closing Price: 22,185 yuan/ton, down 0.14% [1] - London Zinc 3M Electronic Disk Closing Price: 2,712.5 US dollars/ton, up 0.30% [1] - Shanghai Zinc Main Contract Trading Volume: 142,739 lots, an increase of 15,550 lots [1] - London Zinc Trading Volume: 8,813 lots, an increase of 488 lots [1] - Shanghai Zinc Main Contract Open Interest: 118,520 lots, an increase of 4,451 lots [1] - London Zinc Open Interest: 212,114 lots, a decrease of 866 lots [1] - Shanghai 0 Zinc Premium: 195 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - LME CASH - 3M Premium: -23.51 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.01 US dollars/ton [1] - Guangdong 0 Zinc Premium: 370 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [1] - Import Bill of Lading Premium: 150 US dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - Tianjin 0 Zinc Premium: 195 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [1] - Zinc Ingot Spot Import Profit and Loss: -604.23 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.22 yuan/ton [1] - ZN00 - ZN01: 220 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [1] - Shanghai Zinc Continuous Three Import Profit and Loss: -1,071.68 yuan/ton, an increase of 27.68 yuan/ton [1] - Shanghai Zinc Futures Inventory: 1,774 tons, unchanged [1] - LME Zinc Inventory: 153,500 tons, a decrease of 2,725 tons [1] - 1.0mm Hot - Dipped Galvanized Coil Tax - Included Price: 4,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton [1] - LME Zinc Cancelled Warehouse Receipts: 73,325 tons, a decrease of 2,725 tons [1] - Shanghai Zamak - 5 Zinc Alloy Price: 73,325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,725 yuan/ton [1] - Zinc Oxide ≥99.7% Price: 21,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [1] Group 3 - News: After Trump postponed 50% tariffs, the EU said that the EU - US trade negotiations had "new impetus" and planned to "advance quickly." The trade commissioner said on Monday that he had a "good call" with US officials [2] - Zinc Trend Intensity: 0, with a range of [-2, 2] and classifications including weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong. -2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report focuses on the egg market, waiting for the verification of hen culling after the Dragon Boat Festival, but no clear core view is explicitly stated [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2507 is 2,943 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 1.01%, and trading volume increased by 37,677, while open interest increased by 6,344. The closing price of egg2509 is 3,766 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily increase of 0.11%, trading volume decreased by 1,509, and open interest increased by 1,842 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The egg 7 - 8 spread is -637 (previous day: -611), and the egg 7 - 9 spread is -823 (previous day: -796) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The latest spot prices in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 2.95 yuan/jin, 2.64 yuan/jin, 3.00 yuan/jin, and 2.96 yuan/jin respectively. The latest corn and soybean meal spot prices are 2,316 yuan/ton and 2,940 yuan/ton respectively, and the latest Henan live - pig price is 14.45 yuan/kg [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view, with a value range of [-2, 2], where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report indicates that both coke and coking coal are in a bottom - oscillating state. Coke is in a bottom - oscillating state, and coking coal is also in a bottom - oscillating state with the environmental protection supervision team stationed [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of JM2509 was 799.5 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.25%); the closing price of J2509 was 1375 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.58%). The trading volume of JM2509 was 592,256 lots, with a position of 519,485 lots and a decrease of 2,392 lots; the trading volume of J2509 was 21,477 lots, with a position of 55,716 lots [2]. - **Spot Prices**: For coking coal, the prices of some varieties remained unchanged, while the peak - view converted to RMB increased by 41 yuan/ton. For coke, the price of Hebei quasi - dry quenched coke remained unchanged, the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke to the factory remained unchanged, and the Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade price index decreased by 30 yuan/ton [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of JM2509 and J2509 showed different changes. The spread between JM2509 - JM2601 increased by 5.5 yuan/ton, and the spread between J2509 - J2601 increased by 8.0 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Price and Position Situation - **Northern Port Coking Coal Quotes**: The warehouse - pick - up price of Shanxi main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,350 yuan/ton, and the warehouse - pick - up prices of Australian main coking coal at Qingdao Port, Lianyungang Port, Rizhao Port, and Tianjin Port were 1,305 yuan/ton, 1,305 yuan/ton, 1,190 yuan/ton, and 1,295 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **May 26th Fenwei CCI Metallurgical Coal Index**: The price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Shanxi coal) in Jiexiu was 1,030 yuan/ton; the price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) in Shaheyi was 925 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 3) in Shaheyi was 957 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton [3]. - **Position Situation**: On May 26th, from the position situation of the top 20 members of the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the long positions of the coking coal JM2509 contract increased by 5,096 lots, and the short positions decreased by 7,463 lots; the long positions of the coke J2509 contract increased by 100 lots, and the short positions increased by 185 lots [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of coke was 0, and the trend intensity of coking coal was 0 [4].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 旺季预期 震荡 | VS OPEC+增产，油价盘整。OPEC+持续增产，原油远月压力较大；夏季原油 | | | | 消费旺季即将到来；中美关税超预期下降，宏观面改善，市场风险偏好上升。SC【445-465】 | | LPG | 偏弱 | 仓单压制盘面，液化气走势偏弱。近期液化气仓单不断攀升，盘面受到压制，油价偏弱； | | | | 下游利润不佳，但对美关税下降后，进口成本下降，开工率有上升预期。PG【4030-4080】 | | L | 偏弱 | 期现齐跌，社库去化速度放缓，本周装置计划重启增多，供给充沛；抢出口可持续性不 | | | | 强，农膜季节性淡季，反弹偏空。L【7050-7150】 | | PP | 偏弱 | 内需淡季，期现齐跌，5-7 月即将迎来新一轮投产高峰期，基本面供需格局偏弱，向下考 | | | | 验前低支撑位，反弹偏空。PP【6930-7030】 | | PVC | 偏弱 | 成本坍塌，开工高位窄幅下滑。5-6 月有多套新装置计划投产，出口尚存不确定性，基本 | | | | 面预期 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 26 日 对二甲苯：多 PX 空 PTA PTA：长丝计划检修，多 PX 空 PTA MEG：多 PTA 空 MEG 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-05-23 | 6652 | 4716 | 4403 | 6450 | 3508 | | 2025-05-22 | 6614 | 4702 | 4411 | 6452 | 3505 | | 2025-05-21 | 6766 | 4788 | 4414 | 6544 | 3571 | | 2025-05-20 | 6668 | 4732 | 4413 | 6506 | 3556 | | 2025-05-19 | 6752 | 4776 | 4475 | 6544 | 3563 | | 日度变化 | ...