Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Index Futures - On Wednesday morning, the A-share market fluctuated and declined, but rebounded in the afternoon driven by the artificial intelligence sector. Ignoring the overnight decline of US stocks and Asia-Pacific stock indices, index futures soared in a short-squeeze situation, contrasting with the limit-down of lithium carbonate. The loose capital situation is the main reason. Under the central bank's loose policy, funds flow into the stock and futures markets in search of returns. With the improvement of residents' wealth management awareness and the decline of the attractiveness of real estate, some funds have turned to the financial sector, enriching the stock market capital pool. The general bullish sentiment in the market forms a positive feedback - investors' buying drives up prices, and rising prices attract more funds, amplifying the gains. This change in sentiment and confidence has become an important psychological basis for the short-squeeze market of index futures IM and IC [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - Taking the previous high as a reference, if the subsequent adjustment of yields cannot break through the previous high (for example, the previous high of 2.06% for the active 30-year treasury bond 2500002), then the most severe impact of the strong performance of the equity market on the bond market may have passed. At the same time, the bond market has also witnessed marginal positive factors such as the return of loose capital after the tax period and the relief of the fund redemption pressure after the previous release. This environment is conducive to the stabilization of bond market sentiment and also helps the bond market and the equity market to trade according to their own logics in the subsequent process [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Index Futures - **Market Review**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 1.16%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 1.08%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 rose 1.4%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 rose 1.23%. The 10-year main contract fell 0.19%, the 5-year main contract fell 0.1%, the 30-year main contract fell 0.5%, and the 2-year main contract fell 0.01% [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The RSI indicator shows that the market is approaching a short-term high [4]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Buy on dips [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Review**: The 10-year, 5-year, 30-year, and 2-year main contracts are involved [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator shows that the T contract may rebound [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines [2] Futures Data - On August 20, 2025, the closing price of CSI 300 continuous contract was 4270.00 yuan/contract, with a daily increase of 1.16%, a trading volume of 90,137 lots, and an open interest of 159,194 lots. The closing price of SSE 50 continuous contract was 2851.20 yuan/contract, with a daily increase of 1.08%, a trading volume of 45,450 lots, and an open interest of 72,434 lots. The closing price of CSI 500 continuous contract was 6695.20 yuan/contract, with a daily increase of 1.40%, a trading volume of 77,339 lots, and an open interest of 127,360 lots. The closing price of CSI 1000 continuous contract was 7276.00 yuan/contract, with a daily increase of 1.23%, a trading volume of 196,109 lots, and an open interest of 217,300 lots. The closing price of 10-year treasury bond continuous contract was 107.84 yuan/contract, with a daily decrease of 0.19%, a trading volume of 78,281 lots, and an open interest of 69,826 lots. The closing price of 5-year treasury bond continuous contract was 105.42 yuan/contract, with a daily decrease of 0.10%, a trading volume of 52,899 lots, and an open interest of 63,108 lots. The closing price of 30-year treasury bond continuous contract was 115.88 yuan/contract, with a daily decrease of 0.50%, a trading volume of 96,513 lots, and an open interest of 48,883 lots. The closing price of 2-year treasury bond continuous contract was 102.32 yuan/contract, with a daily decrease of 0.01%, a trading volume of 47,983 lots, and an open interest of 42,716 lots [6].

Macro Economic Overview - The report indicates that the next important time point may be in the late third quarter of 2025, with a suggested asset allocation order of stocks > commodities > bonds > currency [2][4] - In the first half of 2025, China's actual GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, laying a good foundation for achieving the annual target of 5.0% [2][4] - Economic data from July shows signs of growth pressure, including weakened external demand due to increased tariffs from the US and sluggish domestic consumption [2][4] Asset Performance - The A-share market saw an increase, with the CSI 300 index rising by 2.37% and the CSI 300 stock index futures up by 2.83% [11][12] - Commodity futures showed mixed results, with coking coal futures up by 0.33% and iron ore down by 1.65% [11][12] - The yield on ten-year government bonds rose by 6 basis points to 1.75%, while active ten-year government bond futures fell by 0.26% [11][12] Policy Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand in the second half of the year, suggesting that policies should be implemented to enhance efficiency and release domestic demand [2][4] - It is noted that the fiscal policy may have room for further adjustments within the year, particularly in light of external pressures easing due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][4] Sector Performance - The report highlights that the TMT sector has shown significant growth, with the ChiNext index leading with an 8.58% increase, followed by the Shenzhen Component Index at 4.55% [35][36] - The report also notes that the banking sector has faced declines, with a drop of 3.22% [35][36] Financial Data - In July, new social financing amounted to 1.13 trillion yuan, while new RMB loans decreased by 500 million yuan, indicating weak financing demand in the real economy [4][17] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.8% year-on-year, reflecting a relatively strong liquidity environment despite weak economic indicators [4][17]

金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 美国通胀"爆表"，7 月 PPI 环比飙升至 0.9%，创三年新高，同比升至 3.3%。 美国 PPI 数据显示美国批发通胀意外强劲，打压周二 CPI 数据助燃的 9 月美 联储降息预期。指数走强，是政策暖风频吹、资金活水不断、事件催化密集等 因素正反馈不断强化的结果。短线达新高后，或借高点震荡洗盘，但中期趋 势向上未改，有仓位的可继续持有或回调锁仓，无仓位可考虑逢回调做多。 ◆ 策略建议： 逢低做多。 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 近期债券市场仍面临风险资产的掣肘格局。尽管权益市场终结了八连阳走势， 但从日内表现来看，调整深度较为有限，仅回踩至 5 日均线附近便重拾涨势， 且单日成交量再度攀升至 2.3 万亿高位。尽管部分资金选择阶段性止盈，但 增量资金持续涌入，呈现出"逢调买入"特征，当前权益占优的格局可能仍未 到逆转时候，短期仍对债市形成明显压制，制约了债市的修复进程。关注周 五即将公布的经济数据表现，是否能给债市提供阶段性支撑。 ◆ 策略建议： 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 研究员： 彭博 从业编号：F308 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Index Futures - The U.S. Treasury Secretary believes that the U.S. interest rate should be 150 - 175 basis points lower than the current level. China's new social financing in July was 1.16 trillion yuan, RMB loans decreased by 5 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed. The central bank's media suggests not over - hyping single - month credit fluctuations. The expectation of a September interest rate cut is strengthened, and the Secretary's statement reinforces the market's anticipation of a larger cut. The index's strength is due to positive policies, continuous capital inflows, and frequent event catalysts. After reaching a short - term high, it may oscillate to wash out floating chips, but the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged [2]. Treasury Bonds - Whether the bond market will continue to rebound or fall needs further observation. The bond market has lacked profit - making opportunities recently, leading to the outflow of some allocation funds. A short - term upward movement may even stimulate more outflows. The bond market may fluctuate in both directions for some time, providing opportunities for flexible funds [3]. Strategy Recommendations Index Futures - Buy on dips [2]. Treasury Bonds - Expect a volatile market [4]. Market Review Index Futures - The main contract of the CSI 300 index futures rose 1.02%, the SSE 50 index futures rose 0.35%, the CSI 500 index futures rose 1.78%, and the CSI 1000 index futures rose 1.77% [6]. Treasury Bonds - The 10 - year main contract rose 0.04%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.05%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.14%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.03% [7]. Technical Analysis Index Futures - The RSI indicator shows that the market is approaching a short - term high [6]. Treasury Bonds - The MACD indicator suggests that the T main contract may weaken [8]. Data Table - On August 13, 2025, the closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of various index and treasury bond futures contracts are provided, including CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000, 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year futures [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index**: Trump signed a new tariff executive order effective August 1, maintaining the minimum reciprocal tariff rate at 10%. The US core PCE price index in June reached a 4 - month high of 2.8% year - on - year. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged and raised inflation forecasts. The State Council passed relevant AI - related opinions and implemented loan interest subsidy policies. With high margin trading in China, a decline in fund holding ratios, and the Politburo meeting not exceeding expectations, the stock index may fluctuate in late August during the intensive semi - annual report disclosure period [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The external environment has not deteriorated significantly. With policy focus on consumption, market mechanisms, and capital market stability in the second half of the year, the rising market risk appetite may restrict the bond market. Some investors are reducing positions, and there are still differences in the market outlook [3]. 3. Strategy Suggestions - **Stock Index**: Expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to move in a volatile manner [3]. 4. Market Review - **Stock Index**: On July 31, 2025, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures fell by 1.77%, 1.44%, 1.38%, and 0.88% respectively [5][7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On July 31, 2025, the 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year main contracts of treasury bond futures rose by 0.17%, 0.08%, 0.57%, and 0.01% respectively [6][7]. 5. Technical Analysis - **Stock Index**: The RSI indicator shows that the market has a callback risk [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The RSI indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views Stock Index - The Federal Reserve has kept rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings. The initial estimate of the annualized quarterly growth rate of the US Q2 real GDP is 3%, better than expected. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to decide to convene the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work. China's preliminary budget for child - rearing subsidies is 90 billion yuan, and applications will be accepted in late August. Domestic margin trading has reached a high level, while the proportion of fund holdings has declined, showing a divergent trend. Coupled with the fact that the Political Bureau meeting did not exceed expectations, there may be small fluctuations during the intensive disclosure period of mid - year reports in late August, and the stock index may fluctuate. [1] Treasury Bonds - At present, the external environment has not deteriorated significantly. Coupled with the fact that the focus of policy efforts in the second half of the year is on boosting consumption, optimizing the market competition mechanism, and ensuring the stable operation of the capital market, etc., against the background of a significant increase in market risk appetite, it may still pose certain constraints on the bond market. Whether it can fully recover to the starting point of this round of adjustment remains to be seen. [2] 3. Strategy Recommendations Stock Index - Fluctuate [1] Treasury Bonds - Fluctuate weakly [2] 4. Market Review Stock Index - The main contract futures of the CSI 300 index rose 0.04%, the main contract futures of the SSE 50 index rose 0.28%, the main contract futures of the CSI 500 index fell 0.42%, and the main contract futures of the CSI 1000 index fell 0.43%. [4] Treasury Bonds - The 10 - year main contract rose 0.15%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.08%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.40%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.03%. [5] 5. Technical Analysis Stock Index - The RSI indicator shows that the broader market has a risk of correction. [4] Treasury Bonds - The RSI indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound. [5] 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Contract) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | CSI 300 Continuous | 4,136.40 | 0.04 | 81,931 | 162,604 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2,820.00 | 0.28 | 46,511 | 64,619 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | CSI 500 Continuous | 6,215.40 | - 0.42 | 58,280 | 108,507 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6,604.20 | - 0.43 | 144,840 | 185,002 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.30 | 0.15 | 86,268 | 183,354 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.63 | 0.08 | 72,345 | 141,731 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 118.36 | 0.40 | 159,171 | 115,352 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.34 | 0.03 | 38,836 | 98,577 | [6]

Group 1: Core Views - Core view of stock index: Sino-US economic and trade talks are held in Stockholm. The two sides will continue to promote the 90-day extension of the 24% reciprocal tariffs of the US and China's countermeasures. The Political Bureau's economic work conference will be held today. Margin trading reaches a high level, while the fund holding ratio decreases and the trends diverge. Coupled with the intensive disclosure period of the semi-annual reports in late August, there may be small fluctuations. The stock index may fluctuate [1] - Core view of treasury bond: From the recent trend, the bond market is still in the paradigm of "trading bonds based on commodities" and "trading bonds based on stocks". The short-term focus of the market still lies in the subsequent trends of the commodity and equity markets. Recently, attention should be paid to whether important meetings bring incremental demand-side policies. If the demand side can be repaired under the support of policies to digest the pressure of this round of cost increase, it may not be appropriate to be overly optimistic about the bond market [3] Group 2: Strategy Recommendations - Strategy recommendation for stock index: Fluctuate [2] - Strategy recommendation for treasury bond: Fluctuate weakly [4] Group 3: Market Review - Stock index market review: The futures of the main contracts of CSI 300 Index rose 0.54%, the futures of the main contracts of SSE 50 Index rose 0.39%, the futures of the main contracts of CSI 500 Index rose 0.66%, and the futures of the main contracts of CSI 1000 Index rose 0.86% [5] - Treasury bond market review: The 10-year main contract fell 0.25%, the 5-year main contract fell 0.16%, the 30-year main contract fell 0.81%, and the 2-year main contract fell 0.06% [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Stock index technical analysis: The RSI indicator shows that the market has a callback risk [5] - Treasury bond technical analysis: The RSI indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound [6] Group 5: Futures Data - Futures data on July 29, 2025: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of various stock index and treasury bond futures are provided in the table [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Views - **Equity Index**: The "Renovation Gate" of the Fed has escalated, with Trump pressuring for a rate cut. The ECB has stopped rate cuts after eight consecutive reductions, and the expectation of a September rate cut has dropped sharply. China is strongly "anti - involution" with the revision of the Price Law. After the coal mine production verification dampened market sentiment, the "Hainan blockade" and "anti - involution" have boosted market risk appetite again, and the slow - bull trend of the equity index is becoming clear with its central level rising [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On Thursday, the bond market adjusted significantly. Currently, the focus of short - term bond market trading is not on the capital and fundamental aspects. The influence of investor behavior and the performance of major asset classes on the bond market has been significantly magnified. Compared with the commodity and equity markets, the previous adjustment space of the bond market is still insufficient, and the odds are limited, making incremental funds cautious and existing funds uneasy. In this situation, the bond market is still difficult to make great progress. It is recommended to preserve strength and wait for better opportunities to allocate [2]. 3. Directory Summaries Market Review - **Equity Index**: The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 equity index futures rose by 0.76%, 0.50%, 1.72%, and 1.84% respectively [1][5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year main contracts of treasury bond futures fell by 0.27%, 0.20%, 0.87%, and 0.08% respectively [2][6]. Technical Analysis - **Equity Index**: The RSI indicator shows that the market has a callback risk [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The RSI indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound [6]. Strategy Suggestions - **Equity Index**: The equity index is expected to fluctuate upwards [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Pay attention to taking profits and wait for better entry opportunities [2][3]. Futures Data - **Equity Index Futures**: On July 24, 2025, the closing prices of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 main contracts were 4,141.20 yuan, 2,816.60 yuan, 6,226.00 yuan, and 6,618.60 yuan respectively, with trading volumes of 65,298 lots, 34,309 lots, 49,292 lots, and 124,051 lots, and open interests of 163,125 lots, 63,790 lots, 109,680 lots, and 181,457 lots respectively [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On July 24, 2025, the closing prices of 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year main contracts were 108.24 yuan, 105.60 yuan, 118.31 yuan, and 102.30 yuan respectively, with trading volumes of 88,420 lots, 88,209 lots, 149,278 lots, and 54,515 lots, and open interests of 196,150 lots, 160,008 lots, 122,909 lots, and 106,097 lots respectively [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views - **Stock Index**: The current stock index futures market shows a pattern of "strong small - cap and stable large - cap". The positive news from the negotiation has ended, and the technology sector related to IM has positive catalysts. Domestic stock indices may fluctuate. The US 5 - month CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, falling short of expectations for the fourth consecutive month. China and the US have basically reached an agreement framework. The US Treasury Secretary said the inflation data was "very good" and there were other related statements [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On Wednesday, the bond market continued to be favorable, with yields of bonds of various maturities declining slightly. Overnight funds returned below 1.4%, dispelling market concerns. Although the equity market strengthened on Wednesday, the bond market was not much affected. Currently, the two markets are trading their own main lines. The bond market is benefiting from the resonance of fundamentals, funds, and the approaching end of the supply peak. Be patient with the subsequent decline in interest rates [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to fluctuate [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Allocate on dips [4]. 4. Market Review - **Stock Index**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 0.89%, SSE 50 rose 0.79%, CSI 500 rose 0.75%, and CSI 1000 rose 0.63% [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0.06%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.07%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.23%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.02% [9]. 5. Technical Analysis - **Stock Index**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows a possible fluctuating trend [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows a fluctuating trend [10]. 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3878.80 | 0.89 | 69002 | 115340 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2682.40 | 0.79 | 35407 | 44558 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5761.20 | 0.75 | 47295 | 89802 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6144.00 | 0.63 | 112327 | 144803 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 109.05 | 0.06 | 47080 | 187358 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.19 | 0.07 | 38116 | 150845 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 120.44 | 0.23 | 55029 | 105150 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.46 | 0.02 | 23987 | 119103 | [12]

Group 1: Core Views - The current stock index futures market shows a pattern of "strong small-cap and stable large-cap". With positive news from the US Commerce Secretary, domestic stock indices may fluctuate strongly [1] - On Tuesday, the bond market continued to fluctuate, with a bullish bias. Fundamentals and other factors are favorable to the bond market in the long run, but the market may experience short-term fluctuations. However, the scope and time of market pullbacks are limited [3] Group 2: Strategy Recommendations - For stock indices, the strategy is to expect a fluctuating and upward trend [2] - For government bonds, the strategy is to allocate on dips [4] Group 3: Market Review - The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures fell by 0.69%, 0.53%, 0.88%, and 0.89% respectively [6] - The main contracts of 10-year, 5-year, 30-year, and 2-year government bond futures rose by 0.01%, 0.01%, 0.07%, and 0.00% respectively [9] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index suggests a possible fluctuating trend [7] - The KDJ indicator of the T main contract of government bonds shows a fluctuating trend [10] Group 5: Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-06-10 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3841.00 | -0.69 | 64495 | 112083 | | 2025-06-10 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2660.00 | -0.53 | 38481 | 46099 | | 2025-06-10 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5718.20 | -0.88 | 52147 | 93852 | | 2025-06-10 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6113.80 | -0.89 | 132573 | 158926 | | 2025-06-10 | 10-year Government Bond Continuous | 109.00 | 0.01 | 47942 | 184969 | | 2025-06-10 | 5-year Government Bond Continuous | 106.14 | 0.01 | 47953 | 147190 | | 2025-06-10 | 30-year Government Bond Continuous | 120.16 | 0.07 | 62753 | 103965 | | 2025-06-10 | 2-year Government Bond Continuous | 102.44 | 0.00 | 25053 | 118657 | [12] Group 6: Figures - Figures related to stock index futures include trends, PE ratios, trading volume, open interest, trading volume to open interest ratio, basis, basis rate, annualized basis rate, and inter - period spreads [13][17][22][24][26][29][31][33][34] - Figures related to government bond futures include trends, trading volume, open interest, trading volume to open interest ratio, trading amount, basis, and spot - futures price difference [37][42][47][49]