写了很多腾讯，后台很多用户私聊我，问怎样看阿里？特别是阿里最近涨幅很猛，蒋凡执掌权柄后有了 中兴之势！ 现在已经不是零售商阿里，是AI的阿里，在云服务、芯片、大模型上三箭齐发，同时闪购+到店+高德 为主站导入海量电商流量，寻找了10年之久的流量入口，终于搭建成功了。 1. 零售电商份额持续流失。零售本质就是多、快、好、省，之前基本是淘宝+天猫独霸了，现在心智完 全分散了。 好——京东自营+天猫品牌店； 多——淘宝、拼多多，抖音、快手货架也丰富起来； 快——京东； 还有菜鸟物流，蚂蚁（支付宝），海外电商板块都是实力在线，这样看上去，阿里眉清目秀， 高大威 猛！ 综合来看，阿里就是亚马逊（电商+云服务）+OpenAI（通义）+英伟达（自研芯片），简直是六边形战 士。 涨就是必然的。 我们反过来探究一下，那为啥之前不涨，跌跌不休？除了进入GP周期而不是效率周期之外，阿里本身 面对什么问题： 省——拼多多。 2. 新的战略级别流量入口始终没有办法找到。 陆兆禧集全集团之力做"来往"失败后，阿里除了同步搞了移动端，千人千面这是电商转化端，一直也同 步寻找新的线上战略级别入口，这个入口必须自己把控的，没有新的流量入口，再 ...

Core Viewpoint - The document titled "Internet Platform Pricing Behavior Rules (Draft for Public Comment)" was jointly released by three departments, focusing on the pricing behaviors of internet platforms, which are directly related to everyday apps used by consumers [1][3]. Group 1: Pricing Behavior - Pricing behavior includes price marking and price competition, with promotional events like "Double 11" and "618" being significant examples [2]. - The draft emphasizes preemptive guidance, requiring relevant parties to self-regulate their behaviors [3]. Group 2: Subsidy Wars - The ongoing "takeout war" among major platforms like Meituan, Ele.me, and JD.com has led to an estimated total investment of 25 billion yuan in the second quarter [4]. - This competition has resulted in substantial consumer benefits, with daily order volumes in the instant retail market increasing from 100 million to 250 million [5]. Group 3: Regulation and Compliance - The draft does not explicitly prohibit subsidies but mandates platforms to disclose rules for subsidy promotions and prohibits false advertising or exaggeration of subsidy amounts [6][12]. - The rules aim to protect the legitimate rights of consumers and operators by regulating pricing behaviors related to subsidies [12][18]. Group 4: Impact on Small Businesses - Small businesses, referred to as "couple shops," may bear 70%-80% of the subsidy costs, creating a dilemma where participation in subsidy activities leads to higher losses [15][17]. - The draft emphasizes the protection of pricing autonomy for platform operators, prohibiting unreasonable restrictions on pricing behaviors [18][19]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - The "takeout war" is fundamentally about competing for user traffic rather than market share, as platforms seek to enhance user engagement through their main apps [8][10]. - The draft aims to create a fair competitive environment by preventing platforms from using unfair pricing practices and ensuring transparency in promotional activities [32][34].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the bond market amidst fluctuations in the stock market, emphasizing a long-term low interest rate environment and its implications for investment strategies in bonds and equities [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Market Analysis - The bond market experienced a decline, with 30-year government bonds dropping over 3 basis points, influenced by the cooling stock market and external interventions affecting bond futures [1][2]. - The article argues that the low interest rate environment is expected to persist, suggesting that there is no significant upward pressure on interest rates in the medium to long term [4][6]. - It highlights that government bonds saw a substantial increase in issuance, with a reported 7.656 trillion yuan in new government bonds in the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year growth of 21.3% [8][12]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The article advises investors to align their investment choices with their risk tolerance, suggesting that low-risk funds should consider short-term bond funds and fixed-income products as viable options [15]. - It emphasizes maintaining a balanced portfolio between stocks and bonds, indicating that a diversified approach remains a cost-effective strategy [16]. - The article also encourages embracing high-quality equity investments in a low interest rate environment, while recognizing the challenges in identifying and diversifying quality stocks [16]. Group 3: Market Trends and Insights - The article notes the ongoing volatility in the Hong Kong stock market, particularly highlighting the decline of Meituan's stock, which has reached a new low for the year [19]. - It discusses the launch of a new technology-focused ETF by Huaxia, aimed at capturing opportunities in the tech sector amidst market fluctuations [21][22]. - The article concludes with a mention of a global asset allocation strategy that remains open for investment, despite recent market downturns [25].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a fierce subsidy war in the food delivery industry, with major platforms like Meituan, Taobao Flash, and JD launching aggressive promotional strategies to attract users, resulting in a 35% year-on-year increase in total industry subsidies [2] - Taobao Flash announced a subsidy plan of 500 billion yuan, while JD initiated a "Double Hundred Plan" to support benchmark brands with 10 billion yuan, and Meituan and Ele.me continued their classic strategies of discounts for new users [2] - The subsidy war has led to significant growth in order volumes, with Meituan's daily orders surpassing 150 million and Taobao Flash and Ele.me exceeding 8 million daily orders, indicating an exponential growth trend in the industry [2] Group 2 - JD expressed concerns about the "0 yuan purchase" and other aggressive subsidies as signs of severe internal competition, emphasizing that sustainable growth is more important than short-term gains from subsidies [2] - JD's strategy focuses on quality food categories, such as prepared meals and crayfish, aiming to provide targeted subsidies to meet effective demand and drive growth [2][8] - The food delivery business is viewed as a significant traffic entry point for e-commerce, with cross-purchase behavior observed among users, indicating that losses in the front-end can lead to profits in the back-end [8] Group 3 - In recent years, the food delivery market has been dominated by Meituan and Ele.me, with Meituan holding a market share of 68.2% and Ele.me at 25.4% as of mid-2020 [3] - The overall performance of the instant delivery market in 2020 was underwhelming, with three out of four segments reporting continuous losses, while the food delivery segment remained profitable, with Meituan's revenue reaching 66.27 billion yuan and operating profit at 2.83 billion yuan [4] - Future predictions indicate significant losses for Alibaba and JD's food delivery businesses, estimated at 41 billion yuan and 26 billion yuan respectively, while Meituan's EBIT is expected to decline by 25 billion yuan [5]

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of generative AI is reshaping the mobile ecosystem, prompting a new competition for entry points as the flow of super apps reaches its peak and user engagement becomes fragmented [1][2]. Group 1: New Flow Entry Points - HarmonyOS is gradually addressing the challenge of becoming a new operating system, with Huawei identifying three key elements for its ecosystem's competitiveness: AI agents, meta-services, and application market recommendations [1][2]. - The meta-service model, which allows for lightweight applications, is crucial as 50% of the top three apps in any industry account for over 80% of the traffic, indicating fierce competition among leading platforms [2]. Group 2: Meta-Services and User Interaction - The integration of meta-services allows for precise user engagement through card and command formats, moving away from traditional app structures that require keyword competition and advertising [4]. - HarmonyOS's distributed technology capabilities enable a seamless user experience across multiple devices, enhancing the system's ability to deliver services at the right moment [4]. Group 3: AI Agents as a Tool for Growth - AI agents are positioned as a significant tool for driving traffic, with Huawei integrating various applications into its AI assistant, allowing users to perform tasks directly through the assistant [5]. - The HarmonyOS AI agent framework (HMAF) empowers developers to create agents that can autonomously execute complex tasks, marking a shift from passive tools to proactive AI systems [5][6]. Group 4: Ecosystem Development and Challenges - The transition from a single app competition to a new phase of "system entry + service intelligence" is underway, with the success of HarmonyOS relying on the collaboration of developers and users to form a sustainable commercial cycle [6]. - HarmonyOS is perceived to be on an upward trajectory, following a "smile curve" growth path, indicating its evolution from pilot projects to mainstream app integration [6].

Group 1 - The article discusses the evolution of internet access points, highlighting the transition from portal websites to search engines, and ultimately to browsers as the primary means of accessing the internet [2][3][4] - Google's PageRank algorithm revolutionized information retrieval, leading to the dominance of search engines over traditional portals, with Google achieving a market value exceeding $100 billion by 2006 [4] - The rise of mobile internet and independent apps has fragmented information distribution, challenging the browser's role as the main access point [10][11] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that browsers must evolve to integrate AI capabilities effectively, as traditional browser functionalities are being challenged by AI-driven applications [12][13] - OpenAI's CEO noted that a significant portion of young adults are using AI tools like ChatGPT as operating systems, indicating a shift in user interaction with technology [13][14] - Microsoft and Google are leading the charge in integrating AI into their browsers, with Microsoft's Edge incorporating Copilot and Google launching an AI Mode in Chrome [23][24] Group 3 - QQ Browser's approach to AI integration focuses on user choice, allowing users to opt for traditional search methods alongside AI features, reflecting a balance between innovation and user habits [26][31] - The introduction of QBot as an AI assistant in QQ Browser aims to enhance user experience without overwhelming them, maintaining a low profile unless needed [31][32] - QQ Browser's strategy has resulted in increased user engagement and retention, demonstrating the effectiveness of gradual AI integration rather than abrupt changes [43][44] Group 4 - The article concludes that the future of browsers lies in their ability to adapt to AI technologies while maintaining usability, emphasizing that AI should enhance rather than replace traditional functionalities [46][47][48]