证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 经济周周看：本周经济景气度延续回落 ——宏观经济周度高频前瞻报告 核心观点 基于前期报告《经济周周看：整体向上，生产偏强，需求涨跌互现——宏观经济周度 高频前瞻报告》中构建的生产端景气周度跟踪框架，我们进一步编制 GDP 周度高频 景气指数，更好地综合把握经济景气强度及变化方向。 从我们构建的 GDP 周度高频景气指数历史回溯来看，GDP 周度高频景气指数在趋势、 节奏上与月度 GDP 的趋势节奏有较好的拟合度，例如 2024 年二季度的回落、三季度 筑底与四季度的大幅改善得到较好拟合，在拐点上有较好提示。未来随着高频数据质 量的进一步完善，有望更好地拟合周度 GDP，使其在弹性强度上更为准确。 GDP 周度高频景气指数本周（截至 12 月 27 日）为 4.9%，与上周修订值 4.8%略有回 升，或表征经济增长景气有所回暖。 从生产端来看，服务业、工业高频指标较上周涨跌互现。 从需求端来看，外需仍是最强变量，基建实物工作量小幅改善。 从价格端来看，消费品价格涨跌互现，工业品价格基本持平。 ❑ 风险提示 经济结构转型，传统指标对经济的拟合度下降； 地缘政治博弈强度 ...

Core Insights - In 2025, China's economy demonstrated strong resilience amid internal and external challenges, characterized by two "better than expected" and two "worse than expected" trends, with an overall growth rate showing a "high first, low second" trajectory [2][3][7] - For 2026, a GDP growth target of around 5% is anticipated, with a dual focus on both real and nominal GDP growth to address low inflation [2][11][18] Group 1: Economic Performance in 2025 - China's exports showed strong resilience, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% from January to October, supported by diversified market layouts and upgraded export structures [3][4] - The capital market outperformed expectations, driven by institutional reforms and increased risk appetite, particularly in technology stocks, leading to a significant bull market [4][5] - The real estate market's recovery was slower than anticipated, with real estate investment declining by 14.7% year-on-year from January to October, exceeding the previous year's decline [5][6] - Consumer spending showed initial improvement but fell short in the latter half of the year, with retail sales of home appliances declining significantly in the last quarter [6][7] Group 2: Economic Challenges and Policy Recommendations for 2026 - The core issues for 2026 will revolve around real estate and local government debt, which are intertwined and pose both short-term and long-term challenges [8][9] - Local government financial capacity is under pressure due to declining land sales revenue, which is expected to drop from 8.7 trillion yuan in 2021 to below 4 trillion yuan in 2025 [8][9] - To stabilize the economy, macroeconomic policies need to be more proactive, with a focus on fiscal policy, monetary policy, and real estate policy working in concert [2][11][19] - A "dual 5" growth target is recommended, aiming for both 5% real and nominal GDP growth, to embed price recovery within growth objectives [18][20] Group 3: Structural Changes and Future Outlook - The economic growth structure is expected to shift, with traditional growth drivers weakening and new drivers, such as service consumption and infrastructure investment, gaining momentum [12][13] - Despite ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical risks, China's exports are projected to remain resilient, supported by new demands from emerging markets and advancements in technology [12][14] - The real estate market is anticipated to undergo a prolonged adjustment period, with potential recovery contingent on easing policies in major cities and adjustments in mortgage rates [15][16] - The government is advised to implement a comprehensive policy framework to stabilize the real estate market, including the establishment of a "Real Estate Stability Fund" and increased fiscal support for local governments [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - Asian United Infrastructure Holdings (00711) reported a significant turnaround in its financial performance for the six months ending September 30, 2025, with total revenue reaching HKD 4.925 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.69%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 61.184 million, compared to a loss of HKD 264 million in the same period last year [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for the period was HKD 4.925 billion, reflecting a growth of 10.69% year-on-year [1] - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 61.184 million, a significant recovery from a loss of HKD 264 million in the previous year [1] - Basic earnings per share were reported at HKD 0.0331 [1] - The company proposed an interim dividend of HKD 0.0083 per share [1] Strategic Insights - The growth in total revenue and net profit indicates the effectiveness of the company's strategic adjustments and operational optimizations [1] - The management emphasized the importance of talent development and operational intelligence to maintain long-term competitive advantages [1] - The company aims to provide high-quality services to clients, which is expected to further enhance overall operational performance [1]

Core Insights - The macroeconomic data for October indicates a short-term increase in economic downward pressure, with a focus on stimulating domestic demand and repairing industrial product prices while maintaining the overall principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" [1] CPI - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 0.2% in October from -0.3% in the previous month, marking a 0.5 percentage point increase [2] - The month-on-month increase was 0.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, driven by rising prices of fruits and vegetables [2] PPI - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year in October, improving from a decline of 2.3% in September, with the mining sector providing significant support [3] - The prices of production materials increased by 0.1%, with mining prices up by 1% [3] PMI - The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49% in October from 49.8% in September, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [4] - The decline in PMI is attributed to high inventory levels, a weakening demand structure, and reduced investment demand due to accelerated debt repayment [5] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (FAI) decreased by 1.7% year-on-year in October, worsening from a decline of 0.5% in September [6] - The decline in infrastructure investment is influenced by multiple factors, including accelerated debt repayment and insufficient project reserves [6] Credit - New credit issuance in October was 220 billion yuan, a decrease of 280 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [7] - The total social financing (TSF) increased by 815 billion yuan, but the growth rate has slowed down [7] M2 - The M2 money supply grew by 8.2% year-on-year in October, down from 8.4% in September, influenced by a rebound in fiscal deposits [8] - The central government allocated 500 billion yuan to local governments to support effective investment and address existing debt issues [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated slowdown in various macroeconomic indicators for October, influenced by factors such as the elevated base from 2024 and increased external uncertainties. Economists maintain a stable outlook for China's economy, projecting a 5% growth target for the year, with a focus on domestic demand recovery [2][12]. Industrial Growth - The average forecast for October's industrial added value year-on-year growth is 5.7%, down from 6.5% in the previous month. The manufacturing PMI has dropped to 49.0%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [4][6]. - Despite the expected slowdown, some sectors like steel and chemicals show resilience, with steel production rates increasing significantly [5][6]. Consumer Spending - The predicted year-on-year growth for October's retail sales is 2.7%, a decrease from 3% in the previous month. The non-manufacturing business activity index has risen to 50.1%, indicating expansion, driven by holiday consumption [8][9]. - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to boost consumption in specific categories, contributing to a high base effect for October [8]. Automotive Industry - In October, China's automotive production and sales reached 3.359 million and 3.322 million units, respectively, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.1% and 8.8%. New energy vehicles also saw significant growth [9]. Fixed Asset Investment - The forecast for September's fixed asset investment growth is -0.8%, indicating a further decline. However, infrastructure investment may see a narrowing of its decline due to new policy measures [10][11]. - The real estate sector continues to struggle, with significant declines in property transactions and land sales [10][11]. Economic Policy and Outlook - The government is intensifying growth stabilization policies, with significant financial tools deployed to support key investment projects. Local governments are also issuing consumption vouchers to stimulate demand [14][15]. - The overall economic growth target of around 5% for the year is deemed achievable, supported by improved trade conditions and a focus on domestic demand [12][13].

Economic Overview - The external environment remains complex and variable, with a focus on domestic demand recovery for the economy [1] - The Chief Economist Confidence Index from First Financial Research Institute stands at 50.3, indicating stable economic performance with a target growth rate of 5% for the year [1] Industrial Growth - The predicted year-on-year growth rate for industrial added value in October is 5.7%, down from 6.5% in the previous month [2] - The manufacturing PMI for October is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [2][3] - High-frequency data shows a strong production trend in the steel sector, with the average blast furnace operating rate at 84.38%, up 3.31 percentage points year-on-year [3] Consumer Spending - The forecast for year-on-year growth in retail sales of consumer goods for October is 2.7%, down from 3% in the previous month [4] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for October is at 50.1%, indicating expansion, driven by holiday consumption [4] - The automotive industry sees record production and sales figures, with October production reaching 3.359 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 12.1% [5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment is expected to decline by 0.8% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment showing signs of potential recovery due to new policy financial tools [6][7] - Real estate investment continues to face challenges, with significant declines in property transactions in major cities [6][7] Policy and Economic Goals - The government aims to achieve the annual economic growth target despite external challenges, with a focus on effective policy implementation [8] - Recent policies include the issuance of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools to support key investment projects [9] - Local governments are actively deploying measures to stimulate consumption and investment, including issuing consumption vouchers and launching major infrastructure projects [10]

Core Viewpoint - The economic growth in the third quarter is supported by short-term factors and medium-term resilience, maintaining reasonable growth [2][8][42] GDP - The GDP growth rate for the third quarter is 4.8%, matching expectations, with contributions from service consumption, improved external demand, and strong construction activity [2][44] - Service consumption remains resilient, contributing 2.7 percentage points to GDP [2][8] - External demand has improved, with net exports contributing 1.2 percentage points to GDP [2][8] - Construction activity surged in September, with a 22.9% increase, boosting property sales and supporting capital formation in GDP [2][8] Production - Industrial value-added growth increased to 6.5% in September, driven by specific industries like automotive production [2][13] - The automotive sector saw a 7.6% increase in value-added, contributing to an overall production growth of 0.4% [2][13] - Downstream production showed significant improvement, while upstream production remained weak due to declining investments [2][14] Retail Sales - Retail sales below the quota showed a decline, but service consumption continued to grow at a rate of 5.2% [3][20] - Retail sales of automobiles improved due to anticipated adjustments in subsidy policies, while home appliances saw a decline [3][20] - The overall retail sales growth in September was 3.0%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [3][20] Real Estate - The "guarantee delivery" and "existing home sales policy" have been implemented, leading to a significant increase in construction activity [3][24] - Property prices in 70 cities showed a slight year-on-year increase, but still negative on a month-on-month basis [3][24] - The construction growth rate surged to 1.5% in September, driven by policy support [3][24] Investment - Fixed asset investment growth remains low, with a year-on-year decline of 6.5% in September [4][33] - Other expenses saw a significant increase, while construction and installation investment dropped sharply [4][33] - The acceleration of debt repayment has occupied funds for fixed investment, contributing to the ongoing decline in investment growth [4][33] Summary - Economic pressures are increasing, but policies are actively countering these effects, with expectations for resilience in the fourth quarter [4][42] - Short-term factors like "production rush" may fade, leading to potential downward pressure on industrial production [4][42] - The implementation of 500 billion yuan in local special bond quotas is expected to alleviate the impact of debt repayment on fixed asset investment [4][43]

Economic Overview - GDP growth for Q3 2025 is reported at 4.8%, with a slight decrease from 5.2% in Q2 2025[5] - The GDP growth rate for the first nine months of 2025 is 5.0%[5] Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing investment has weakened significantly, with a decline of 1.1% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025[22] - The manufacturing sector's investment growth is attributed to diminishing returns on equipment updates and internal competition[22] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment continues its downward trend, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.7% in the first nine months of 2025[26] - The infrastructure investment growth rate is projected to be supported by recent central government financial assistance to local governments[26] Consumer Spending - Overall consumer spending growth is slightly below expectations, with retail sales growth at 3.0% in September 2025[12] - Service retail remains stable, while dining services have seen a decline[12] Employment Trends - The unemployment rate has decreased but remains higher compared to the previous year, reported at 5.2%[4] - Employment conditions are improving, but the recovery is not yet robust[4] Risks and Challenges - The report highlights potential risks including economic uncertainties and external market pressures that could impact future growth[4] - The foundation for consumer recovery is deemed unstable, indicating a need for cautious optimism[12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company experienced a slight decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of the year, with total revenue of 511.09 billion yuan, down 5.93% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.83 billion yuan, down 17.17% year-on-year [2][6] - Despite the overall decline, the company achieved stable growth in overseas contracts, with new contracts signed amounting to 1,108.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, and overseas business contracts reaching 124.87 billion yuan, up 51.6% year-on-year [12] - The company is focusing on improving operational quality and is optimistic about the revaluation of its mineral resources, having established five modern mines that are operating well [12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 511.09 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.93% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in infrastructure construction, which accounted for 436.25 billion yuan, down 7.78% [12] - The gross profit margin slightly decreased to 8.73%, with the infrastructure construction margin at 7.37%, down 0.53 percentage points [12] - The net profit margin decreased to 2.31%, down 0.31 percentage points year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit margin of 2.01%, down 0.40 percentage points [12] Operational Highlights - The cash collection ratio improved to 88.47%, up 0.36 percentage points year-on-year, although the net cash outflow from operating activities was 79.63 billion yuan, an increase of 10.30 billion yuan year-on-year [12] - The company has a total of 5 modern mines in operation, producing various metals including copper, cobalt, molybdenum, lead, zinc, and silver, with stable production levels [12] Market Position - The company’s overseas revenue showed resilience, with a year-on-year growth of 8.34% in foreign markets, contrasting with a 6.83% decline in domestic revenue [12] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for mineral resources and is actively expanding its international footprint [12]

Core Insights - The report highlights a stable economic environment in China, with a 3.5% year-on-year growth in total goods trade value for the first seven months of 2025, amounting to 25.7 trillion RMB [4] - The report indicates that the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a continuous year-on-year rebound, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) has seen a narrowing decline [5] - The report emphasizes the government's commitment to maintaining strict controls on the issuance and listing of new stocks, preventing large-scale market expansion [5] Industry Dynamics - Seven departments have issued a document to promote the development of the brain-computer interface industry, which is expected to boost the sector. Related stocks include Sanbo Brain Science (301293) and Xiangyu Medical (688626) [6] - A plan to construct and renovate 300,000 kilometers of rural roads by 2027 is expected to support the infrastructure sector. Related stocks include China Communications Construction (601800) and Baoli International (300135) [6] - The State Grid has reported a record high in electricity load for three consecutive days, indicating potential improvements in profitability for the power sector. Related stocks include Huayin Electric (600744) and Leshan Electric (600644) [6] Company Focus - BOE Technology Group (000725) is entering a rebalancing phase in the display industry, with MiniLED and OLED technologies expected to grow rapidly in the high-end market [7] - Shengtong Holdings (002599) is providing technical support for the World Robot Conference through its subsidiary Zhongming Robotics [7] - Berry Genomics (000710) plans to establish a joint venture to provide integrated testing services for newborns and children with genetic diseases [7] - Digital Certification (300579) is set to change its controlling shareholder to Beijing Data Group, while the actual controller remains a Beijing state-owned enterprise [7] Market Review and Outlook - On August 8, the market experienced narrow fluctuations with slight declines in the three major indices. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.71 trillion RMB, a decrease of 115.3 billion RMB from the previous trading day [8] - The report notes that over 2,800 stocks in the market declined, with sectors such as Xinjiang local stocks and high-speed rail showing gains, while AI application stocks faced significant drops [8] - The report mentions that the margin trading balance has returned to 2 trillion RMB for the first time in ten years, indicating an improvement in market risk appetite and a generally loose liquidity environment [8] - Three factors are expected to support a continued upward trend in the A-share market: stable economic performance, improving corporate profitability due to recent policies, and ample market liquidity [8]