6月8日，英国《金融时报》报道：目前中国除了在稀土领域拥有主导地位外，在新型超强磁铁、电池、新型芯片等多项领域都拥有主导地位，特朗普政府已 经意识到了这一点，但他们也无能为力。 中国的底牌远不止稀土，特朗普政府后知后觉，终于发现天平朝中方倾斜，美国掀起关税战，不但没能逼中国低头，反而帮中国更了解自己的实力了。 国际观察家们已经注意到，中国在稀土供应链上的布局配合对美出口的适时管控，正成为影响中美贸易谈判走向的关键筹码，天平正逐渐向北京倾斜，中国 市场的任何风吹草动，都可能牵动美国工业和科技敏感的神经。 特朗普政府并非没有尝试过其他方案：从其他国家采购，甚至考虑海底开采稀土，然而实践表明，即便获得矿石，缺乏中国的精炼技术也无济于事，正如外 国专家直言："稀土调配完全由中国掌控"。 将视野放宽，中国的优势远不止于稀土，除了新型超强磁铁和电池，中国在高性能晶体管、特定软件领域，以及无人机、机器人、智能手机等热门产业，都 已构建起完整的产业生态体系。 这一体系的独特之处在于，即便某些技术环节尚有提升空间，整个系统仍能自主运转，不惧外部干扰，当美国政界意识到时，中国已在多个领域占据先机， 追赶将变得异常困难。 以华为芯 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 8 Jun 2025 香港策略 Hong Kong Strategy 宽幅震荡升级在即，继续回避微盘股和新消费风险 Broad Consolidation About to Intensify; Remain Cautious on Micro-Caps and New Consumer Names 周林泓 Amber Zhou 李加惠 Jiahui Li, CFA amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com jh.li@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 上周我们认为当前市场处于宽幅震荡中，回调仍未结束，尤其需要规避短期过热的A股小微盘股及港股新消费板 块。本周一，受中美贸易摩擦影响，恒生指数早盘一度跌近2.7%，恒生科技最多跌3.1%，两者从5月高点分别累计 回撤5.2%、8.9%。这波下跌充分释放了市场对中美贸易不确定性的担忧，因此市场进入宽幅震荡以来 ...

Core Insights - The escalating trade tensions between the US and China have created significant opportunities for Australian farmers and fund managers, particularly in the agricultural sector [1][3] - Warakirri Asset Management's Steve Jarrott has made substantial investments in high-value agricultural assets, including wine, citrus, berries, and nuts, capitalizing on the increased demand for Australian products in China [3][4] Agricultural Sector Performance - Almonds have emerged as a major winner, with prices soaring to over AUD 12 per kilogram, the highest in a decade, due to punitive tariffs imposed by China on US almonds [4][6] - Australian almond exports reached AUD 762 million last season, a significant increase from AUD 570 million the previous year, highlighting the growing market position for Australian almonds [4] - The demand for citrus and berries is also rising, with Australian exports of oranges and blueberries showing strong growth, particularly blueberries which saw a 63% year-on-year increase [6] Investment Strategy - Warakirri's investment strategy prioritizes almonds, citrus, and berries as top investment categories, reflecting the changing dynamics in global agricultural markets [6][8] - The fund has made strategic acquisitions, including a AUD 15 million purchase of a 160-hectare citrus orchard and leasing a 59-hectare berry farm to Costa Group [8] - The fund's annualized net return is currently 5.91%, with a three-year annualized return of 5.78%, indicating stable performance in agricultural REIT investments [8] Market Trends - The rise of the Chinese middle class is driving demand for high-protein and high-value food products, benefiting Australian agricultural exports [5][8] - Australian agricultural products are perceived as clean, green, and high-quality, allowing for premium pricing in international markets [5][7] - Customization in production, such as producing visually appealing fruits for gifting, is crucial for meeting the preferences of Chinese consumers [7] Fund Composition - The fund's asset allocation includes 34% in wine, 19% in nuts, 18% in fruits, 16% in vegetables, and 13% in agricultural infrastructure, showcasing a diversified investment approach [11]

Core Insights - The trade tensions between the U.S. and China have made soybeans a focal point, with China accelerating its imports from Brazil and Argentina due to tariffs and trade uncertainties [1][2] - Brazil has significantly increased its share in China's soybean import market, with exports to China projected to be more than three times that of the U.S. by 2024 [3][4] Group 1: Trade Dynamics - Since 2018, Brazil's share in the Chinese soybean import market has been steadily increasing, attributed to trust, stability, and sustainable supply [3] - In April 2023, the unloading volume of Brazilian soybeans at Ningbo-Zhoushan Port reached 700,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of over 30% [2][4] Group 2: Supply and Demand - Brazilian soybean producers have adjusted their supply to meet the growing demand from China, estimating that 35% to 40% of the current harvest is directed towards the Chinese market [4] - The trade war has led to a shift in Brazil's export direction, increasing total soybean exports while negatively impacting domestic processing due to reduced supply [6] Group 3: Future Outlook - In the next 5 to 10 years, China is expected to focus on increasing its domestic soybean self-sufficiency, potentially reducing large-scale imports of raw soybeans [7] - There is potential for strategic imports of soybean meal from Brazil, which could help maintain a stable bilateral trade relationship [7] Group 4: Environmental Concerns and Cooperation - Brazil has implemented measures to prevent deforestation linked to soybean production, including the "Amazon Soy Moratorium" established in 2006 [8] - There is significant potential for cooperation between China and Brazil in agricultural technology and logistics, particularly in seed technology and railway transportation [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growing trade surplus of China, which reached nearly $1 trillion last year, and the implications this has for U.S.-China relations, highlighting the U.S. concerns over China's manufacturing dominance and its impact on American industries [3][12][15]. Trade Surplus - Trade surplus is defined as a situation where a country's exports exceed its imports, with China achieving a trade surplus close to $1 trillion last year [3]. - China's ability to export such a large volume of goods is attributed to its scale of manufacturing and cost control, which has made its products attractive to global buyers [3][12]. U.S. Perspective - The U.S. perceives China's reliance on manufacturing as a deviation from previous development paths, leading to concerns about global demand insufficiency rather than overcapacity [4][12]. - The decline of U.S. industrial power post-World War II has contributed to wealth disparity and dissatisfaction among American blue-collar workers, who feel marginalized by globalization [4][5][10]. Economic and Security Concerns - The U.S. is motivated by economic and security concerns, recognizing that industrial capacity is closely linked to military manufacturing capabilities [6][12]. - Events like the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict have heightened U.S. awareness of the risks associated with over-reliance on foreign supply chains [6][12]. Comparative Advantage Theory - The article references the comparative advantage theory, suggesting that while countries should specialize in their strengths, China's broad manufacturing capabilities have led to a convergence of advantages, creating competitive pressures on developed nations [8][9]. - The fear is that if China excels in high-end manufacturing, particularly in semiconductors, it could undermine the remaining industrial advantages of developed countries like the U.S. [9][12]. Globalization and Competition - The article posits that as comparative advantage theories fail, globalization may devolve into a zero-sum game, leading to intensified competition and trade friction [13][14]. - China's significant trade surplus is viewed as a threat to the industrial bases of developed countries, prompting fears of a strategic shift in global manufacturing [14][15]. Future Implications - As tensions rise, China is encouraged to expand its domestic market and reduce reliance on Western economies, while seeking new emerging markets [15][16]. - The article concludes that the competition between the U.S. and China is a natural response to the evolving global economic landscape, where both nations must adapt to new realities [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting economic situations of the United States and China amid ongoing trade tensions, highlighting China's economic resilience and strategic positioning compared to the challenges faced by the U.S. economy. Group 1: U.S. Economic Challenges - The U.S. is experiencing supply shortages and rising prices in supermarkets, indicating underlying economic issues [3][11] - Trump's administration appears to be in a reactive position regarding trade negotiations with China, oscillating between hardline and conciliatory stances [7][9] - The International Monetary Fund has expressed concerns about the future of the U.S. economy, suggesting a lack of confidence from other countries in investing in the U.S. [9][13] Group 2: China's Economic Strength - China's economy shows strong performance, with over two-thirds of its provinces meeting or exceeding growth targets in the first quarter [15][35] - Shanghai's GDP has re-entered the top ten nationally, driven by robust industrial investment, consumption, and foreign trade [17][35] - The Chinese government’s long-term planning and policy stability contribute significantly to its economic resilience [19][21] Group 3: Trade Strategy and Responses - China is adjusting its trade strategy by encouraging domestic consumption and exploring new export markets to reduce reliance on the U.S. [21][25] - Export restrictions on critical resources like rare earths are being used as leverage in negotiations with the U.S. [21][23] - China is adopting a wait-and-see approach regarding U.S. trade policies, believing it has the time and capability to navigate the trade dispute effectively [27][29] Group 4: Global Economic Implications - The ongoing trade conflict is seen as a gamble for the U.S., with potential risks to its economic future, while China is perceived to be gaining the upper hand [11][32] - The outcome of the U.S.-China trade tensions could significantly impact the global economic order and accelerate shifts in power dynamics [34]

截至2023年，美国出口的大豆中，超过一半是面向中国的。由于中美贸易摩擦，中国正大幅 减少对美国大豆的进口量。日本考虑承担减少的部分…… 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）获悉，在日美关税谈判中，日本政府正考虑扩大进 口美国大豆。截至2023年，美国出口的大豆中，超过一半是面向中国的。由于中美贸易摩 擦，美国大豆的出口量减少，日本考虑承担减少的部分，以引导美方态度软化。 负责与美国进行关税谈判的日本经济财政再生相赤泽亮正将于4月30日至5月2日访问美 国，与美国财政部长贝森特等人进行磋商。赤泽表示力争"达成一体化协议"，扩大进口美国大 豆的方案将成为日方的谈判筹码之一。 日本的大豆进口由民营企业进行。2024年的进口量比上年增长0.5%，达到317万吨。其 中，美国占65.7%，巴西占23.4%，加拿大占10.4%。日本政府正在考虑让民营企业增加来自 美国的进口量。 2023年，美国的大豆出口中，有54.3%是面向中国的。美国特朗普政府对中国进口商品征 收的关税目前累计达到145%。中方也采取反制措施，把对美国进口商品征收的关税提高到 125%。 目前，中国正大幅减少对美国大豆的进口量。业界团体美国大豆协会对 ...

据金融界报道，特朗普政府无视国际规则，肆意破坏国际经贸秩序，近日疯狂对中国提高关税。美国白宫官员证实，美 国对中国进口商品征收的关税税率目前实际上已达145%。面对美国单边霸凌胁迫的做法，中国坚定捍卫自身合法权益。 据最新消息，国务院关税税则委员会发布公告，自近日起对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税税率由84%提高至125%。鉴 于在目前关税水平下，美国输华商品已无市场接受可能性，如果美方后续对中国输美商品继续加征关税，中方将不予理 会。 最近，中美贸易摩擦逐渐进入高潮，美副总统的一句"乡巴佬"暴露了美国骨子里的傲慢和优越，也揭露了美国为什么如 此执着于要让中国先低头认输。然而，市场不给美国继续装腔作势的机会了，连日来，美股震荡、美债收益率上升、物 价飙涨、大宗产品出口额暴跌，使得美国不得不尽快调整关税政策，并在贸易谈判中取得成果。这一周，美国接连退了 好几步，不仅宣布对部分国家暂缓90天实施"对等关税"，还对高达3000多亿美元的商品实施了关税减免 毕竟现在中国手中的筹码太多了，近日美国财政部公布的数据显示，2025年2月，美债前三大海外债主日本、中国、英国 均增持美国国债。美国财政部2025年2月国际资本流动 ...

关税落地已经十来天了，那中美的贸易现在成啥样了呢？ 我这段时间跟不少做对美贸易的读者聊了下，很确认地说：生意还在继续。 确实有人在观望，但即便是在特朗普加关税当天，还有美国中小企业在给中国工厂发来1400万的大单。 他们找过一圈东南亚的"平替"，没找到。 在中国一家工厂里就能成套购买的商品，在东南亚要找三四家工厂分别定制，相互之间尺寸甚至也很难 匹配。 事实证明，美国中小企业离不开中国供应链。 其实说起中国供应链的优势，大家可能第一反应是人力成本便宜，这当然是真的。但这并不是全部，甚 至如今已经不是最重要的。 咱们现在的优势主要是另外两个：规模优势和产业网络的灵活性。 规模优势很好理解，咱们现在的生产规模太大了，生产的越多，可以把固定成本均摊的越低。大家知道 一个东西叫"学习曲线"吧，看着好像说的是中学生记单词曲线，其实说的是1915年美国航空工业发现， 随着飞机生产数量增加，工人组装时间呈指数级下降。 后来又发现，生产的越多，技术迭代、工艺优化、管理创新等层面的不断改进，会导致成本不断下降。 中国工业独步世界这些年，不仅仅是积累了巨大的产能，更是积累了无数的相关知识和经验，这让中国 生产的产品成本降得非常非 ...

恐慌之下容易病急乱投医，一旦冷静下来，自然动作就不那么轻率了。 另一方面，从遭遇突发的关税冲击到之后的慢慢适应，市场其实正从关税冲击带来的第一阶段情绪恐慌中 慢慢回过神来。 华创证券的报告中提到，成交缩量的背后是市场进入观测期，即对于关税风险的定价从第一阶段突发的情 绪恐慌，转向对于国内对策的跟踪和等待。 民生证券的报告中提到，在特朗普宣布要在全球范围内实施对等关税措施以来，投资者此外对本轮贸易摩 擦的定价情境是：始作俑者美国和被关税政策针对并采取最坚决反制措施的中国将是受损最严重的国家， 全球出现衰退风险，因此才会出现过去三周美元和人民币同时走弱的情况。但上述定价情境对应的 中美 受损与全球衰退的预期回摆在即 。驱动因素主要有三，一是就国内基本面来看，本周公布的3月经济数据 表明当前国内经济的内生性修复韧性较强；二是美国方面当前消费与就业情况并未出现急剧恶化，近期反 而仍有改善；三是贸易争端本身具有减速的希望，中国和美国已分别开始和各自的重要贸易伙伴进行磋 商。 近期市场有涨有跌，更多的关注被聚焦到了成交量上。毕竟，过去一周的全A日均成交额仅1.1万亿，较此 前一周1.6万亿显著下滑。除此之外，上周五（4月 ...