18 6600 3 魏凤春 深圳商报记者 陈燕青 2026年，市场定价从"预期透支"回归"盈利兑现"。产业选择的核心标尺从"赛道故事"转向"盈利验证"，业绩 确定性成为估值锚定的核心依据。 在投资机会方面，一是新质生产力赛道（电子、高端装备），二是中游制造及上游资源品。 2025年，A股整体呈现震荡上涨态势：沪指上涨近两成，一度冲上4000点；科技成长股领涨，创业板指大涨 五成。进入2026年，A股会否延续反弹？市场风格又将如何演绎？近日，创金合信基金首席经济学家魏凤春 在接受深圳商报记者采访时表示，2026年A股有望延续此前的上涨态势，但市场的驱动逻辑切换为盈利主 导，看好新质生产力赛道和中游制造。 2026年A股有望延续上涨态势 2025年，A股整体呈现科技股领涨的成长风格。从大的板块来看，科创50、创业板指数全年分别大涨近四成 和约五成，明显超过上证50、沪深300等蓝筹股指数。 创金合信基金首席经济学家魏凤春认为，过去一年市场的结构性分化，核心源于资产定价逻辑的三重维度演 进。首先，2025年呈现向科技成长端集中的结构性倾斜，本质是新质生产力引领的主导产业更替进入质变 期，AI+赋能与科技自立自强形成 ...

本报讯(记者袁传玺)天眼查App显示，近日，苏州市健康养老产业发展集团有限公司发生工商变更，注 册资本由10亿元增至20亿元。 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of rationality, professionalism, and courage in economic discussions, particularly in the context of the "Yi Cai Hao" platform and its annual recognition of outstanding thinkers in finance [1][2]. Group 1: Achievements and Impact - Over the past year, the "Qian V Plan" has produced over 700 in-depth articles and more than 1,500 videos, achieving over 60 million views [2]. - The "Da V Liu Shui Xi" live broadcast attracted 4.64 million viewers, while the previous year's "Annual Financial Thinker Ceremony" engaged 7.41 million participants, generating a total communication flow of 40 million [2]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - A survey of 180 economists and researchers indicates that over 60% expect China's GDP growth target for 2026 to be between 4.5% and 5.0%, reflecting a pragmatic balance between stability and progress [3]. - 88.2% of experts believe that significant advancements in 2026 will occur in "technological innovation and industrial upgrading," with a focus on artificial intelligence, robotics, and semiconductor localization as key strategic areas [3]. Group 3: Consumer Trends and Market Dynamics - Health and elderly care, along with cultural and experiential consumption, are viewed as the most promising new consumer engines, with approximately 70% agreement among experts [4]. - In the real estate sector, the focus has shifted from simple stimulus to urban renewal and improvement, indicating a transition from "housing for all" to "livable housing" [4]. Group 4: Global Economic Context - Experts anticipate that the Federal Reserve will gradually enter a rate-cutting phase in 2026, maintaining a neutral global liquidity environment, with the US dollar index expected to remain stable within a certain range [4]. - The article highlights the importance of understanding global variables to navigate domestic policy space and market fluctuations [4].

Core Viewpoint - The "National Subsidy" policy has significantly boosted consumption, benefiting over 360 million consumers and generating over 2.5 trillion yuan in consumption from January to November 2025 [1]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The "National Subsidy" has led to substantial exchanges, including over 11.2 million old cars, 12.844 million old home appliances, and 9.015 million digital products [1]. - The official deadline for the 2025 "National Subsidy" is set for the end of this month, with no extensions or additional budgets available once the funds are exhausted [1][2]. Group 2: Future Expectations - The "National Subsidy" policy is expected to continue into 2026, with potential adjustments to its core rules [3][6]. - The funding for the "National Subsidy" increased from 150 billion yuan in 2024 to 300 billion yuan in 2025, with expectations for a slight increase or maintenance of this scale in 2026 [8][9]. Group 3: Changes in Subsidy Categories - The 2025 policy expanded to include three new digital product categories and four new home appliance categories, indicating a shift towards more diverse consumer goods [13]. - Future policies may focus more on service consumption, targeting areas such as cultural tourism, sports, and health care, while also emphasizing green and smart products [13][14]. Group 4: Regulatory Adjustments - Due to issues like scalping and fraudulent transactions in 2025, the 2026 "National Subsidy" may implement stricter eligibility criteria and smarter regulatory measures to ensure funds reach genuine consumers [16].

二是绿色低碳消费场景加快培育，彰显可持续发展理念。推广绿色居住、绿色出行、绿色餐饮等消费场 景，这既顺应了"双碳"目标要求，也抓住了年轻消费群体环保意识觉醒的新趋势。随着新能源汽车充电 网络的持续完善、节能家电的加速普及，正在形成颇具规模的消费增长点。数据显示，我国绿色低碳产 业规模已突破10万亿元，预计在"十五五"时期还将实现规模倍增。 三是文旅融合消费场景创新发展，不断突破产业边界。政策重点支持发展智慧旅游、沉浸式体验、文创 产品开发等新业态，推动旅游、文化、商业的深度融合。近年来，从"长安十二时辰"主题街区的火爆， 到各地博物馆文创产品的热销，再到乡村民宿与农事体验的结合，文旅消费正从单一观光向复合体验转 变，创造出更高的附加值和更丰富的消费内涵。 近日，工信部、国家发展改革委等六部门联合印发《关于增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费的实施 方案》，围绕拓展增量、深挖存量、场景赋能等系统化部署了19项重点任务。这是党的二十届四中全会 后首个印发的促消费政策文件，致力于以消费升级引领产业升级，以优质供给更好满足多元需求，实现 供需更高水平的动态平衡。 这份方案既着眼于当前消费市场的企稳复苏，更注重构建长期有 ...

Core Insights - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" will focus on high-quality development, emphasizing technological self-reliance, boosting consumption, and building a unified national market [1][3] Group 1: Technological Self-Reliance - The first major highlight of the "14th Five-Year Plan" is to accelerate technological self-reliance, focusing on key areas such as integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, high-end instruments, and biomanufacturing [3] - The development of these industries is expected to provide substantial structural investment opportunities for investors [3] Group 2: Domestic Market and Consumption - The second highlight is the construction of a strong domestic market aimed at significantly boosting consumption [3] - New consumption sectors such as health and elderly care, as well as smart living, are projected to show immense potential due to changes in population structure and consumption habits [3] Group 3: Unified National Market - The third highlight involves the construction of a unified national market, which aims to eliminate barriers that hinder its development [3] - This initiative is expected to optimize the business environment and create favorable conditions for improving corporate profitability [3] Group 4: Economic Outlook - Looking ahead to the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan," it is anticipated that proactive fiscal policies will continue to support stable economic operations [3] - The deep integration and application of emerging technologies like artificial intelligence are expected to inject new momentum into economic development [3] - Under the guidance of the new plan, China's economic development is expected to enter a phase characterized by higher quality, greater efficiency, and enhanced sustainability [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and 12 other departments have issued a plan to enhance financial support for consumption in Beijing, focusing on developing equity financing to address funding challenges across different stages of consumption enterprises [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Support for Consumption - The plan aims to facilitate equity financing for quality enterprises in the consumption industry through methods such as public listings and "New Third Board" listings [2][4]. - As of November 19, 18 consumer companies have gone public this year, raising a total of 19.8 billion yuan, with a significant number from the automotive sector, indicating a shift towards consumption structure upgrades and technological innovation [2][5]. Group 2: Long-term Capital Support - The plan emphasizes the need for long-term and patient capital to support long-cycle consumption industries like cultural tourism and health care, which require stable funding over extended periods [4][5]. - Experts suggest that optimizing exit channels and improving assessment mechanisms are crucial for attracting long-term investments from insurance funds and pension funds [4][5]. Group 3: Comprehensive Financing System - The initiative establishes a comprehensive equity financing support system for consumer enterprises, covering all stages from seed to maturity, enabling production, channel, and terminal enterprises to enhance their capabilities [5][6]. - This system is expected to stimulate market vitality by increasing the number of quality consumer companies listed, thereby attracting more investors and fostering a positive interaction between capital and the consumption market [5][6].

Group 1 - The "Investment China: Sino-Japanese Advanced Technology Matching Conference" was successfully held during the 8th China International Import Expo, with over 200 participants including executives from more than 80 Fortune Global 500 companies and industry leaders from Japan [1][2] - The Deputy Director of the Investment Promotion Bureau of the Ministry of Commerce emphasized the deep economic cooperation and mutual benefits between China and Japan over the past 50 years, highlighting China's role as a safe and attractive investment destination for foreign businesses [1][2] - The conference served as a platform for sharing innovative practices and discussing the development prospects of advanced technology industries between China and Japan, promoting collaboration and the integration of technology with the economy [3] Group 2 - Presentations were made on the current state of Sino-Japanese economic cooperation and the future of advanced technology industries, with case studies shared by representatives from various organizations [2] - A roundtable discussion focused on collaborative innovation in advanced technologies, particularly in the fields of intelligent robotics and health care, generating enthusiastic responses from attendees [2]

Core Insights - The development of the silver economy is a crucial measure to address population aging, enhance the well-being of the elderly, and promote high-quality economic growth [1][5] Group 1: Policy and Strategic Direction - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has emphasized the importance of developing the silver economy in its 15th Five-Year Plan, indicating a clear direction for growth in this sector [1] - The Chinese government is elevating the response to population aging as a national strategy, with significant measures to support the development of the silver economy outlined in the "Opinions on Developing the Silver Economy to Enhance the Well-being of the Elderly" [5] Group 2: Market Trends and Innovations - The 2024 United Nations World Population Prospects predicts that by 2030, the elderly population in China will reach 369 million, accounting for 26.4% of the total population, highlighting the growing market potential for silver economy products and services [5] - Recent trends show a significant increase in social attention and market interest in the silver economy, with a notable rise in the number of business entities, industry scale, and consumer spending [5][6] - New business models are emerging, integrating silver economy services with various sectors such as culture, education, fashion, and finance, leading to rapid growth in online shopping and live-streaming sales among the elderly [5][6] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The integration of technology into products for the elderly is becoming increasingly important, with innovations in home safety, smart lighting, and health management solutions tailored to the needs of older adults [2][3][4] - Companies are expanding the use of medical products from healthcare institutions to community and home settings, enhancing the accessibility of professional medical solutions for elderly care [3][4] - The development of silver technology is focused on areas such as AI-enabled precision medicine, chronic disease management, and digital elderly care platforms, although challenges remain in data collaboration and talent shortages [7]

Core Insights - The establishment of the Suqian Bonded Logistics Center (Type B) marks a significant step in supporting local enterprises to expand into international markets and reduce logistics costs, reflecting the city's commitment to high-quality service industry development since the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] Group 1: Service Industry Development - Suqian has prioritized service industry development as a key driver for economic transformation, implementing a three-year action plan for high-quality modern service industry development [2] - The service industry added value surpassed 200 billion yuan for the first time in 2023, reaching 206.66 billion yuan, with projections for 2024 to achieve 235.22 billion yuan, ahead of the 14th Five-Year Plan targets [2] - By the first half of 2025, the service industry's added value accounted for 51.9% of GDP, solidifying its role as a critical force in promoting synchronized development [2] Group 2: Market Vitality and Business Growth - Suqian focuses on cultivating business entities to enhance market vitality, with a significant increase in the number of scale service enterprises, reaching 756 by August 2025, a 2.6-fold increase from the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [3] - In the first nine months of 2025, 123 new scale service enterprises were added, a year-on-year increase of 25.5%, indicating robust market activity [3] Group 3: Project Development and Investment - The city emphasizes the "project first" philosophy, attracting high-quality service industry projects that drive effective investment and enhance development momentum [4] - Notable projects include the Suqian Digital Economy Center, expected to generate annual revenues of 20 billion yuan and create 20,000 jobs upon full completion [5] - By September 2025, 47 major service industry projects had completed investments of 12.58 billion yuan, achieving 73.2% of the annual plan [5] Group 4: Policy Support and Future Outlook - Suqian's modern service industry development is supported by comprehensive policy measures and financial incentives, contributing to a 3.96-fold increase in revenue for scale service enterprises by 2024 [7] - The city aims to continue enhancing the service industry's supply-side structural reforms, focusing on improving the industrial system, expanding business entities, advancing project construction, and optimizing the development environment [7]