南华期货硅产业链企业风险管理日报 2025年09月11日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 工业硅价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅主力合约 | 震荡区间：8000-9000 | 29.9% | 83.2% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 硅产业企业风险管理策略 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 操作思路 | 套保工具 | 操作建议 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 采购管理 | 产品价格无相关性：未来有生产多晶 采购工业硅时价格上涨导致采购成本 | 为防止成本上涨，企业根据生产计划 | 期货 | 买入对应期货合约 | 60% | 7900-8400 | | | 硅/有机硅/铝合金的计划，担心未来 | 需买入对应生产计划的期货合约锁定 | | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive impressions of young Taiwanese entrepreneurs visiting Qinghai, emphasizing the unique natural beauty and cultural experiences they encountered [1][3]. - The delegation, consisting of 31 young Taiwanese businesspeople, visited various locations in Qinghai, including the Qinghai Lake and the largest photovoltaic power plant in the world, showcasing the region's diverse landscapes and resources [1][3]. - The visit aimed to foster understanding and connections between Taiwanese youth and the local culture, with a focus on how people coexist harmoniously with nature [3][5]. Group 2 - Young Taiwanese entrepreneurs expressed a desire to enhance cultural recognition and reduce misunderstandings between the two regions, emphasizing the importance of personal experiences over digital information [5]. - The event included team-building activities, such as ice curling competitions, which facilitated interactions and common interests among young entrepreneurs from both regions [5]. - Qinghai's government has been actively promoting economic and trade forums to strengthen ties with Taiwan, indicating a growing collaboration between businesses in both areas [5].

Group 1 - Northvolt's bankruptcy has caused significant shock within the EU, highlighting the challenges faced by European renewable energy companies amid fierce competition from China and Southeast Asia [1] - The EU Commission's latest report indicates that the prices of solar products produced in China and Southeast Asia have fallen below the production cost of European companies, making survival increasingly difficult for them [1] - The French government has announced a tax reduction policy of up to 200 million euros for companies investing in France, aiming to establish the country as a battery manufacturing hub [3] Group 2 - A joint report from scholars in France and Germany urges the EU to reassess its industrial policies, suggesting that Europe should focus resources on more strategically significant sectors like defense, aerospace, and robotics instead of competing in solar energy [5] - China currently dominates the global photovoltaic industry, contributing approximately 75% of the world's solar cells and 70% of photovoltaic module production, with a total investment of 100 billion dollars in the past three years [7] - European industry organizations warn that imposing trade restrictions on Chinese photovoltaic products could lead to a "lose-lose" situation, increasing clean energy development costs and delaying carbon neutrality goals [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Insights of the Report - The Fed is expected to restart the easing cycle. Powell's dovish stance at the global central bank meeting paves the way for a September rate cut, making the path of overseas inflation more straightforward [2]. - The current commodity fundamentals are still weak, and caution should be exercised regarding the implementation of policy expectations. Commodity price volatility may remain high [2]. - With the continuous increase in risk aversion and rate - cut expectations, the prices of gold and silver have reached record highs [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In August, there were initial signs of rising overseas inflation. Global economic data in July remained resilient. China's official manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.3, while non - manufacturing remained in expansion. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year in US dollars, higher than expected [1]. - The State Council emphasized measures to stabilize the real estate market, and the government plans to expand service consumption and investment. China's official manufacturing PMI in August slightly rebounded to 49.4, and non - manufacturing accelerated its expansion [1]. - On September 2, A - shares fluctuated and adjusted throughout the day, with the three major indices closing down. The basis of IC and IM futures of stock indices has widened, and subsequent basis changes and risks should be monitored [1]. - In the US, the ISM manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7, with the contraction rate of manufacturing activities slightly slowing down. The "Big Beautiful" Act may support subsequent consumption, and attention should be paid to the further transmission and verification of overseas inflation [1]. Fed and Global Central Banks - Powell's dovish speech at the global central bank meeting on August 22 increased the downward risk of employment, which may lead to a policy adjustment. He also abandoned the 2020 flexible average inflation target framework [2]. - The New York Fed President Williams believes that if the neutral interest rate is 1% or slightly lower, the current situation is in a restrictive area. Trump threatened to remove Fed Governor Cook, and the Fed stated that the removal needs "just cause" [2]. - The European Central Bank's July meeting minutes showed that officials considered inflation risks to be "generally balanced." The preliminary annual CPI rate in the eurozone in August was 2.1%, slightly higher than the previous month, supporting the ECB to maintain the status quo [2]. Commodity Market - Domestically, the black and new energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas inflation expectations can focus on precious metals and agricultural products [2]. - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" situation. The supply constraints in the non - ferrous sector have not been alleviated, and the government will regulate the photovoltaic industry [2]. - In the medium - term, the supply of energy is expected to be relatively loose, with OPEC+ accelerating production increases. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of some varieties is worthy of attention [2]. - Agricultural products are currently driven by tariffs and inflation expectations, but they still need fundamental signals and attention should be paid to Sino - US negotiations [2]. Key News - The central bank's liquidity injection in August included a net MLF injection of 30 billion yuan, a net PSL withdrawal of 16.08 billion yuan, and a net injection of 30 billion yuan through repurchase agreements [4]. - The ceremony commemorating the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War will be held on September 3, with the parade lasting about 70 minutes [4]. - The overall market fluctuated and adjusted, with more stocks falling than rising. The trading volume exceeded 2.91 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.14%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.85% [4]. - The US ISM manufacturing index in August was 48.7, with new orders and other sub - indices showing different trends [4]. - The preliminary annual CPI rate in the eurozone in August was 2.1%, and the core CPI also showed certain changes [4]. - The yield of UK long - term government bonds reached the highest level since 1998, putting pressure on the government. US stocks before the market opened saw a decline in European and US stocks, a surge in long - term bond yields, and a rise in gold prices [4].

Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral for polysilicon; short-term range operation for polysilicon in the strategy [5][7] - Inter-temporal: None [5][7][8] - Inter-commodity: None [5][7][8] - Spot-futures: None [5][7][8] - Options: None [5][7][8] Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the short-term supply and demand have marginally improved, but there are issues of overcapacity and high inventory pressure, and the supply side is still expected to increase. The industrial silicon futures market fluctuates with the overall commodity sentiment [2] - For polysilicon, the downstream production scheduling of the photovoltaic industry increased slightly in September. Self-discipline production cuts by polysilicon producers led to a slight reduction in supply, and the oversupply situation improved. The market is greatly affected by anti-involution policies, and the policy is still being promoted, causing large market fluctuations. In the medium to long term, it is suitable to build long positions on dips [7] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On September 2, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was strong. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,480 yuan/ton and closed at 8,470 yuan/ton, up 1.13% (95 yuan/ton) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 281,480 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,029 lots, down 371 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon was stable. The price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon was 9,000 - 9,200 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygenated 553 silicon was 8,400 - 8,600 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,400 - 8,600 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai regions increased slightly, and the price of 97 silicon also rose slightly [1] - The consumption of industrial silicon is expected to remain stable. The price of silicone DMC was 10,500 - 10,900 yuan/ton. Silicone enterprises face increased cost pressure, and the peak-season restocking of end consumers is average [1] Polysilicon - On September 2, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 oscillated strongly, opening at 52,360 yuan/ton and closing at 51,875 yuan/ton, up 3.97% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 145,855 lots (150,409 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 530,778 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The price of N-type material was 49.00 - 54.00 yuan/kg, and N-type granular silicon was 48.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon producers and silicon wafers decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 21.30 (a month-on-month decrease of 14.29%), and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.05GW (a month-on-month increase of 3.68%). The weekly polysilicon production was 31,000 tons (a month-on-month increase of 6.53%), and the silicon wafer production was 13.31GW (a month-on-month increase of 8.30%) [4] - In September, most domestic silicon wafer enterprises increased their production scheduling plans, and the overall output showed an upward trend compared to August [4] - In September, the global battery production scheduling was about 60GW (a month-on-month increase of 2.3% compared to 59GW in August), and the domestic production scheduling was about 59GW (a month-on-month increase of 2.3% compared to 58GW in August) [6] - The mainstream transaction prices of components remained stable. The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N-type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W, and N-type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [6] Strategy Industrial Silicon - The spot price fluctuates slightly. The short-term supply and demand have marginally improved, but due to overcapacity and high inventory pressure, and the supply side is still expected to increase. The industrial silicon futures market fluctuates with the overall commodity sentiment [2] Polysilicon - In September, the downstream production scheduling of the photovoltaic industry increased slightly. Self-discipline production cuts by polysilicon producers led to a slight reduction in supply, and the oversupply situation improved. The market is greatly affected by anti-involution policies, and the policy is still being promoted, causing large market fluctuations. Participants need to pay attention to risk management, continuously follow up on policy implementation and the downward transmission of spot prices. In the medium to long term, it is suitable to build long positions on dips [7]

Core Insights - TCL Technology announced that it expects to achieve a net operating cash flow of 27.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, primarily driven by cash flow contributions from TCL Huaxing [1] - The company reported that TCL Zhonghuan has maintained positive operating cash flow despite being at the bottom of the industry cycle [1] - The rapid growth in operating cash flow for TCL Huaxing is attributed to significant profitability growth despite high depreciation, along with improvements in inventory turnover and accounts receivable management [1] Financial Performance - TCL Technology's capital expenditures are on a declining trend as both the display and photovoltaic industries have passed their investment peaks, indicating a stable growth in future free cash flow [1] - The company plans to increase its equity stake in certain panel production lines to enhance parent company profits [1] - Management of the debt-to-asset ratio is a priority, with a focus on reducing financial costs [1] Shareholder Returns - The company has a long-standing commitment to shareholder returns and will continue to implement a proactive dividend strategy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "involution" in various industries, leading to issues such as price wars and low innovation, which have resulted in insufficient market demand and inefficient resource allocation. The "anti-involution" policies aim to regulate market competition and promote industrial upgrades for sustainable economic development. The consumer sector, including automotive, agriculture, and new energy, is identified as a key beneficiary of these policies [1][28]. Group 1: BYD - BYD is a leading player in the new energy vehicle sector, achieving a revenue of 76.463 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.46%, and a net profit of 10.530 billion yuan, up 1170% [3][5]. - The company has implemented cost advantages through technological reductions and management innovations, with the cost of pig farming dropping to 11.8 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.3 yuan/kg since the beginning of the year [4]. - BYD's strong brand influence and market share position it well to further consolidate its market presence and enhance profitability through innovation and cost control [5]. Group 2: Wens Foodstuffs - Wens Foodstuffs, primarily engaged in poultry and pig farming, reported a revenue of 49.852 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 5.91% increase, and a net profit of 3.475 billion yuan, up 159.12% [6][8]. - The company has reduced its comprehensive pig farming cost to 6.2 yuan per jin, a decrease of 1 yuan per jin compared to the previous year [7]. - Wens Foodstuffs holds a leading market position in pig farming and is expected to enhance its market share and profitability through cost control and technological innovation [8]. Group 3: Muyuan Foods - Muyuan Foods is a leading enterprise in the domestic pig farming industry, achieving a revenue of 76.463 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a net profit of 10.530 billion yuan, reflecting a 1170% year-on-year growth [9][11]. - The company has significantly lowered its pig farming costs to 11.8 yuan/kg, a reduction of 1.3 yuan/kg since the beginning of the year [10]. - Muyuan Foods is positioned to strengthen its market presence through cost control and technological advancements as anti-involution policies progress [11]. Group 4: New Hope Group - New Hope Group is a major player in the modern agricultural and food industry, with the largest feed production capacity globally and the leading poultry processing capability in China [12]. - The company has diversified its operations to reduce reliance on a single business, enhancing profitability across various sectors through technological innovation and cost control [13]. - New Hope Group is expected to further increase its market share and profitability through diversification and innovation as anti-involution policies advance [14]. Group 5: CATL - CATL is a global leader in new energy innovation, consistently ranking first in global power battery usage for eight consecutive years and in energy storage battery shipments for four years [15]. - The company has achieved significant breakthroughs in product performance and cost reduction through technological innovation [16]. - CATL is well-positioned to consolidate its market share and enhance profitability through continued innovation and cost control as anti-involution policies are implemented [17]. Group 6: Ganfeng Lithium - Ganfeng Lithium is a leading enterprise in lithium deep processing, involved in the research, production, and sales of lithium products [18]. - The company has established a full industry chain to lower raw material procurement costs and is recognized for its leading technology and processes [19]. - Ganfeng Lithium is expected to enhance its market share and profitability through its comprehensive industry chain and cost control as anti-involution policies take effect [20]. Group 7: Tongwei Co. - Tongwei Co. is a significant player in the global photovoltaic industry, focusing on the research, production, and sales of polysilicon and solar cells [21]. - The company has optimized production capacity and implemented technological innovations to address challenges in the photovoltaic sector [22]. - Tongwei Co. is likely to strengthen its market position through capacity optimization and innovation as anti-involution policies progress [23]. Group 8: Enjie Co. - Enjie Co. is a leading supplier of lithium-ion battery separators, focusing on the research, production, and sales of wet and dry separators [24]. - The company has enhanced its market competitiveness through technological innovation and capacity expansion [25]. - Enjie Co. is expected to further solidify its market position through innovation and cost control as anti-involution policies are implemented [26]. Group 9: Tianci Materials - Tianci Materials is a leading supplier of electrolytes for lithium-ion batteries, focusing on the research, production, and sales of these products [27]. - The company has improved its market competitiveness through cost control and technological innovation [28]. - Tianci Materials is positioned to enhance its market share and profitability through continued innovation and cost management as anti-involution policies advance [28].

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant advancements in China's manufacturing capabilities, particularly in high-tech sectors, as acknowledged by Russian President Vladimir Putin [1][3][12] Group 1: Manufacturing Strength - China's manufacturing value-added has ranked first in the world for 13 consecutive years, accounting for approximately one-third of global manufacturing [7] - In the electric vehicle sector, China has maintained the highest production and sales globally for eight years, with a substantial lead over competitors [7] - Eight out of the top ten companies in the photovoltaic industry are Chinese, showcasing dominance in this high-tech field [7] Group 2: Global Recognition - Foreign leaders and business figures, including Elon Musk, have praised the efficiency and quality of Chinese manufacturing, particularly noting that Tesla's Shanghai factory surpasses its U.S. counterparts [9] - German manufacturing experts have acknowledged that Chinese companies have surpassed traditional German strengths in certain niche areas [9] Group 3: Factors Behind Success - A significant factor in the rise of Chinese manufacturing is the improved talent pool, with young engineers now possessing strong theoretical foundations and innovative thinking [11] - The vast and accommodating Chinese market has provided opportunities for companies to experiment and innovate based on local demand [12] - A resilient and competitive spirit among Chinese manufacturers drives technological advancements, as they strive to prove their capabilities [12]

Core Viewpoint - The newly constructed Bayin-Pugebu Sand Crossing Road in Inner Mongolia represents a significant advancement in desertification control, transforming the region from "sand encroachment" to "road advancement" and serving as a "green artery" for ecological restoration and livelihood improvement [1][3]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Bayin-Pugebu Sand Crossing Road spans 16.81 kilometers and effectively divides the shifting sand dunes, implementing a governance model of "road delineation, sand blockage, and economic development" [1][3]. - The road construction is part of the "Three-North" project, which employs a scientific approach to desertification control, including road construction, sand fixation, and planting drought-resistant vegetation [3][5]. Group 2: Economic and Ecological Impact - The road has not only improved the local environment but also facilitated economic opportunities, such as easier access for solar energy projects and job creation for local farmers and herders [5][7]. - The local government plans to implement an additional 55 kilometers of "road-based desertification control" projects by 2025, building on the 544 kilometers of existing sand crossing roads that have already contributed to the ecological restoration of nearly 490,000 acres [5][7]. Group 3: Technological and Scientific Foundations - The success of the "road-based desertification control" strategy is rooted in decades of accumulated experience and technological advancements in desertification management in Inner Mongolia [5][7]. - Historical innovations, such as the comprehensive sand prevention system developed during the construction of the Baolan Railway, have laid the groundwork for current practices, which aim to provide replicable solutions for desertification control both nationally and globally [7].

Group 1 - The company plans to adjust the procurement limit for materials from related parties, with an increase not exceeding RMB 460 million [1][2] - The adjustment of the daily related party transaction limit has been approved by the board and will be submitted to the shareholders' meeting for review [1][2] - The daily related party transactions are necessary for the company's operational needs and will follow fair pricing principles based on market rates [7][6] Group 2 - The related parties involved include Jiangxi Province Gaoxin Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. and Xinyu Gaotou Supply Chain Co., Ltd., both subsidiaries of Xinyu Jin Zixin Enterprise Management Center [6][7] - The main content of the related transactions includes the procurement of raw materials such as battery cells and the sale of photovoltaic components [7][6] - The independent directors have unanimously agreed that the proposed related party transactions are fair, reasonable, and in the best interest of the company and its shareholders [7][8] Group 3 - The financial data of the related parties shows total assets of RMB 731.8 million and total liabilities of RMB 730.3 million as of June 30, 2025 [5][4] - The registered capital of Jiangxi Province Gaoxin Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. is RMB 50 million, while Xinyu Gaotou Supply Chain Co., Ltd. has a registered capital of RMB 20 million [3][5] - Both related parties are not listed as dishonest executors, indicating a stable operational background [4][5]