投资要点 ▌ 总量观点 10 月海外关注美国政府停摆、经济数据及 10 月降息预期。 预计中上旬美国政府延续关门，目前市场反应还算温和， 警惕持续关门引发的资产波动放大。国内：关注短期增量 对冲政策、中长期十五五风向和 10 月底 APEC 中美进展。A 股震荡整固后蓄势上行，关注政策催化、景气修复和降息 受益三大方向。 行业选择：关注三大方向：1）政策催化（十五五规划受益 的半导体、机器人、工业软件、军工等）；2）景气修复 （三季报盈利预期改善的 AI、创新药、新能源等）；3）降 息受益（联储预防式降息延续利好的有色、非银等）。 ▌ 本期金股组合： 电子：中微公司（688012.SH） 电子：复旦微电（688385.SH） 中小盘：思泉新材（301489.SZ） 电子：长飞光纤（601869.SH） 汽车：模塑科技（000700.SZ） 电力设备：美湖股份（603319.SH） 新能源：深圳新星（603978.SH） 有色：洛阳钼业（603993.SH） 有色：兴业银锡（000426.SZ） 化工：江山股份（600389.SH） 2025 年 10 月 08 日 十月策略和十大金股 —10 月十大金股 注： ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has a current capacity of 325,000 tons for spandex and plans to expand by 300,000 tons, with the first phase of 100,000 tons already in production. Future industry expansion will mainly focus on leading enterprises, ensuring an orderly release of supply. Additionally, the company has significant cost advantages in raw material procurement, energy, labor, and equipment at its Chongqing base, leading to superior cost control [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 12.137 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.70%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 983 million yuan, down 35.23% year-on-year. Revenue for Q1 and Q2 was 6.314 billion and 5.823 billion yuan, with net profits of 504 million and 479 million yuan respectively [2] - The average market prices for spandex 40D and adipic acid in the first half of 2025 were 23,725 yuan/ton and 7,622 yuan/ton, reflecting year-on-year declines of 15% and 22%. The price spread for spandex and adipic acid decreased by 11% and 21% year-on-year, respectively, impacting the company's overall performance [3] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The spandex and adipic acid price spreads have narrowed, putting pressure on the company's performance in the first half of 2025. Revenue from spandex was 4.215 billion yuan, down 9.43% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 18.65%, up 3.68 percentage points. Adipic acid revenue was 4.471 billion yuan, down 15.01%, with a gross margin of 4.37%, down 11.08 percentage points [3] - The company currently has a spandex capacity of 325,000 tons, and once the Chongqing base's 300,000 tons of differentiated spandex project is fully operational, annual capacity will exceed 500,000 tons, solidifying its leading position in the global spandex industry. The Chongqing base has clear cost advantages in energy, labor, and transportation [4] Group 3: Future Growth Prospects - The domestic adipic acid capacity is expected to reach 4.1 million tons by 2024, with an overall operating rate of 60%-70%. The demand for adipic acid is anticipated to grow rapidly due to breakthroughs in domestic hexamethylenediamine production technology and the large-scale production of biodegradable materials [4] - The company is planning projects for 300,000 tons of hexamethylenediamine and 300,000 tons of PBAT, which are expected to drive future demand for adipic acid by nearly 1 million tons [5] - The company is also investing in projects to enhance its industrial chain, including a 1.204 billion yuan investment for a 120,000-ton PTMEG project and a 5.02 billion yuan investment for a 1.1 million-ton natural gas integration project, which will strengthen its competitive advantage and profitability [6]

Core Views - The report highlights the financial performance of China National Electric Apparatus Research Institute Co., Ltd. (China Electric Research) for the first half of 2025, showing significant growth in revenue and profit across its main business segments [2][3][15]. Company Overview and Financial Indicators - The company reported a total revenue of approximately 2.33 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.88% [3]. - The total profit reached approximately 299.58 million yuan, marking a 29.53% increase compared to the previous year [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 258.24 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 31.28% [3]. - The basic earnings per share increased to 0.64 yuan, a rise of 30.61% from the previous year [3]. Business Segments Quality Technical Services - The quality technical services segment is a key area for the company, focusing on inspection, testing, certification, and standardization, which are essential for enhancing product quality in various industries [4][5]. - The segment has seen stable growth, driven by increasing demand in smart home and emerging business areas, despite facing short-term pressures from rising costs [15]. Electrical Equipment and Complete Equipment - The electrical equipment segment has experienced significant revenue and profit growth, particularly in the new energy battery post-processing systems, which benefited from large orders and a recovering industry [15]. - The complete equipment segment faced challenges due to long project execution cycles and high base effects from the previous year, but it continues to develop new high-end clients and expand its market share [15][16]. Environmental Coatings and Resins - The environmental coatings and resins segment has maintained steady growth, with a focus on powder coatings and water-based coatings, which are increasingly in demand due to environmental regulations [16][12]. - The company has successfully penetrated new markets, including Egypt and Brazil, enhancing its international sales [16]. Industry Context - The quality technical services industry is experiencing robust growth, with the number of accredited testing institutions in China reaching 53,057 and generating revenue of approximately 487.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.41% [5]. - The electrical equipment industry is closely linked to the growth of green and clean energy sectors, with significant increases in lithium battery production driven by electric vehicle demand [7]. - The environmental coatings market is shifting towards eco-friendly products, with powder coatings and water-based coatings gaining market share as part of the national strategy for ecological civilization [12][16]. Innovation and R&D - The company has increased its R&D investment to approximately 182 million yuan, a growth of 8.70%, focusing on enhancing its technological capabilities and developing new products [17]. - The establishment of various national-level research platforms has strengthened the company's innovation foundation, leading to significant technological advancements and recognition in the industry [18][19].

Core Insights - Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Co., Ltd. has signed strategic cooperation agreements with Haitian Plastic Machinery Group and Wanhua Chemical Group to expand industrial collaboration and drive innovation in automotive lighting technology [1] Group 1 - The strategic partnerships aim to enhance innovation in both manufacturing and materials for automotive lighting [1] - The agreements signify a commitment to advancing technology in the automotive lighting sector [1]

Group 1 - ST Ningke (SH 600165, closing price: 3.93 yuan) announced on August 15 that its ninth board meeting was held on the same day to review the 2025 semi-annual report and summary [2] - For the year 2024, ST Ningke's revenue composition is as follows: chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing accounted for 64.0%, biobased and starch-based new materials manufacturing accounted for 35.26%, and other businesses accounted for 0.74% [2]

Group 1 - ST Ningke (SH 600165) announced the appointment of Jin Xiangyu as the new Chief Financial Officer, approved by the board with a unanimous vote of 7 in favor, 0 against, and 0 abstentions [1] - For the fiscal year 2024, ST Ningke's revenue composition is as follows: 64.0% from chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, 35.26% from bio-based and starch-based new materials manufacturing, and 0.74% from other businesses [1] - As of the report date, ST Ningke has a market capitalization of 2.9 billion yuan [1]

Macro Dynamics - In the first half of the year, state-owned enterprises' total operating revenue decreased by 0.2% year-on-year, amounting to 4,074.96 billion yuan, while total profit fell by 3.1% to 218.25 billion yuan [1] - The taxes payable by state-owned enterprises also saw a decline of 0.8%, totaling 300.26 billion yuan [1] - As of the end of June, the asset-liability ratio of state-owned enterprises increased by 0.3 percentage points to 65.2% [1] Financial Institutions - Wang Xiaohang, former vice president of Ant Group, has been appointed as the Chief Technology Officer (CTO) of Ping An Group, bringing nearly 20 years of experience in the "finance + technology" sector [7] Market Data - The ChiNext Index rose by 1.86%, with strong performances in the pharmaceutical and steel sectors, while the overall market saw a trading volume exceeding 1.8 trillion yuan [8] - As of July 28, the financing balance on the Shanghai Stock Exchange reached 989.90 billion yuan, an increase of 11.71 billion yuan from the previous trading day [9] Company Dynamics - Apple announced the closure of its first direct store in Dalian, marking its first store closure in China, effective August 9, 2025 [11] - WuXi AppTec plans to adjust the upper limit of its share repurchase price from 90.72 yuan to 114.15 yuan per share, with its stock price rising significantly following the announcement [12] - Wanhua Chemical has resumed normal production at its facilities in Fujian after a maintenance shutdown [13] - China Chang'an Automobile has become the indirect controlling shareholder of Hunan Tianyan following a corporate restructuring [14] - Zhixiang Jintai received approval for clinical trials of its dual-specific antibody for passive immunity against rabies in children and adolescents [15]

Group 1 - The core revenue composition of ST Ningke for the year 2024 is as follows: 64.0% from chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, 35.26% from bio-based and starch-based new materials manufacturing, and 0.74% from other businesses [1] Group 2 - On July 29, ST Ningke announced the appointment of Ms. Jin Xiangyu as the financial director of the company, following a unanimous approval from the board's nomination committee and audit committee [3]

Group 1 - A total of 390 stocks reported their latest shareholder numbers as of July 20, with 188 stocks showing a decrease compared to the previous period [1][3] - The stocks with the largest decline in shareholder numbers include Chuangyitong, Huizhong Co., and Xingsen Technology, with declines of 27.39%, 24.28%, and 18.87% respectively [3][4] - The average increase in the concentrated chip stocks since July 1 is 4.56%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 3.99% [2] Group 2 - Among the stocks with a decline of over 10% in shareholder numbers, 19 stocks were identified, with Huicheng Co. showing the highest increase in stock price at 41.92% since July 1 [2][3] - The latest performance report indicates that four stocks have already released their half-year earnings, with Baolong Chuangyuan and Guoyuan Securities showing net profit growth rates of 42.68% and 40.44% respectively [4] - The industry distribution of concentrated chip stocks shows a significant presence in machinery, basic chemicals, and electronics, with 25, 22, and 13 stocks respectively [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil: The weak retaliatory action by Iran and the full ceasefire between Iran and Israel have significantly reduced the geopolitical risks in the Middle East, alleviating concerns about crude oil supply disruptions. However, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East cannot be completely ruled out. Crude oil has entered the seasonal travel peak season, and U.S. crude oil inventories have dropped to a low level. But the latest EIA report shows an unexpected increase in U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories, and OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. It is recommended to temporarily exit the previous short positions in crude oil [7][14]. - Bitumen: The bitumen开工率 has rebounded slightly, but the downstream demand is still affected by factors such as funds and weather. The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have cooled down, and OPEC+ plans to increase production in August, which puts pressure on the crude oil market sentiment. As it gradually enters the peak season, it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread of bitumen at low prices [8][81]. - PVC: The upstream calcium carbide price has been slightly reduced. The PVC开工率 has decreased slightly, and the downstream demand has not improved substantially. The inventory pressure is still large, and the real - estate market improvement still takes time. It is expected that PVC will fluctuate at a low level in the near future, and it is mainly recommended to go short at high prices [9][100]. - L&PP: The plastic and PP开工率 have declined to a moderately low level. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is still large. The U.S. government's cancellation of ethane - related restrictions is beneficial to the recovery of Sino - U.S. trade. It is expected that polyolefins will fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the progress of the global trade war [10][126]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC's crude oil production increased in April and May 2025, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia. U.S. crude oil production decreased slightly in the week ending June 27, 2025, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased [20]. - Demand: According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products increased, but was lower than the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand decreased, while diesel weekly demand increased [36]. - Inventory: As of the week ending June 27, 2025, U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories increased unexpectedly, while Cushing crude oil inventory decreased [45]. - Geopolitical Risks: The ceasefire between Iran and Israel has reduced geopolitical risks, but risks still exist, such as Iran's uranium - enrichment activities and the situation in the Israel - Hamas negotiations [49][52]. Bitumen - Supply: The bitumen开工率 rebounded slightly last week, and the expected production in July is expected to increase compared with the previous month and the same period last year [67][81]. - Demand: The downstream demand for bitumen is affected by factors such as funds and weather. The road - bitumen开工率 increased slightly, but is still at a relatively low level [74]. - Inventory: As of the week ending July 4, 2025, the bitumen refinery inventory - to - sales ratio increased slightly, but is still at the lowest level in recent years [78]. PVC - Supply: The PVC开工率 decreased slightly, and new production capacity is about to be put into operation. The upstream calcium carbide price has been slightly reduced [91][100]. - Demand: The downstream demand for PVC has not improved substantially, and the real - estate market improvement still takes time. The export of PVC to India is restricted by policies and the rainy season [9][100]. - Inventory: As of the week ending July 3, 2025, PVC social inventory increased slightly and is still at a relatively high level [97]. L&PP - Supply: The plastic and PP开工率 have declined. New production capacity has been put into operation, and recent maintenance devices have increased, alleviating some pressure [112][126]. - Demand: The downstream demand for polyolefins is weak. The PE and PP downstream开工率 are at relatively low levels, and the recovery is slow [118][126]. - Inventory: The petrochemical inventory is at a moderately low level, and the de - stocking speed is average [123][126].