2025年09月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，高位震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：原料走势趋弱，偏弱震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：原料走势趋弱，偏弱震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：板块情绪共振，偏弱震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：板块情绪共振，偏弱震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 30 日 铁矿石：预期反复，高位震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【宏观及行业新闻】 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12601 | | 784. 0 | -6. 0 | -0.76% | | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market is affected by factors such as Fed rate - cut expectations, Sino - US trade negotiations, and geopolitical issues. Short - term oil prices are expected to be volatile [1][2]. - The asphalt market has a complex supply - demand situation. With increasing supply and weak pre - holiday demand, the spot price is expected to be weak, and the futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [3][4]. - The fuel oil market has different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils. High - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure from high inventory, while low - sulfur fuel oil has increasing supply and weak demand [5][6]. - The PX & PTA market has a tight balance in the short - term, but the supply is expected to increase in the medium - term, and the price is affected by macro and cost factors [8][9]. - The ethylene glycol market has an expected increase in supply and a weakening demand, with a risk of inventory accumulation [11][12]. - The short - fiber market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term due to rising raw material prices, but the processing fee is expected to remain low [13][14]. - The PR (bottle - chip) market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term due to rising raw material prices, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level [14][15]. - The pure benzene and styrene market has different supply - demand situations. Pure benzene supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be volatile; styrene supply is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure [16][17]. - The propylene market has an increasing supply and weak downstream demand, and the price is recommended to be short - sold on rebounds [19][20]. - The plastic and PP market has a short - term price volatility due to rising oil prices and a medium - term bearish outlook [21][23]. - The PVC market has a large inventory pressure, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is weak, with a bearish outlook in the short - and medium - term [23][26]. - The caustic soda market is in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term is weak, and the medium - term is expected to be long after a sufficient correction [28][29]. - The soda ash market is expected to be stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory [31][32]. - The glass market is expected to be volatile before the holiday, affected by factors such as production, inventory, and demand [34][36]. - The methanol market has an increasing supply and a high port inventory, and the price rebound is limited [39]. - The urea market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and export [40][41]. - The log market has a weak supply - demand situation, and the price can be slightly long - tried near the integer level [43]. - The pulp market has a high port inventory and weak demand, and the price can be slightly long - bought at the low point of last week [44][46]. - The offset printing paper market has a slight increase in supply and weak demand, and the price of the 01 contract can be short - sold near the lower limit of the spot price [47][48]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber market has different trends for different types of rubber, and the trading strategies vary for different contracts [49][51]. - The butadiene rubber market has a decreasing capacity utilization rate, and the price of the 11 - contract can be short - tried [52][54]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2511 contract settled at $64.98, down $0.01 (- 0.02%); Brent2511 contract settled at $69.42, up $0.11 (+ 0.16%); SC2511 contract rose 6.6 to 488.9 yuan/barrel, and rose 2.2 to 491.1 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: A new Fed governor called for significant rate cuts, but other colleagues advocated caution. US initial jobless claims decreased, and investors thought it did not support further rate cuts. Sino - US trade negotiations made progress, and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation affected oil prices [1][2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Sino - US trade negotiations improved the macro - sentiment, and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation increased the risk premium. The short - term oil price is expected to be volatile, with the Brent main contract operating in the range of $67.5 - 69 per barrel [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile, with the Brent main contract operating in the range of $67.5 - 69 per barrel; gasoline and diesel crack spreads are weak; options are on hold [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2511 closed at 3440 points (+ 0.41%) at night, and BU2512 closed at 3386 points (+ 0.39%) at night. The spot price in Shandong, East China, and South China remained stable [3]. - **Related News**: In the Shandong market, rising crude oil prices and reduced rainfall increased demand, but the supply - demand pattern did not change significantly. In the Yangtze River Delta market, pre - holiday project rush increased demand, but low - price resources from some merchants affected the price. In the South China market, typhoon and rainfall affected sales, but the expected reduction in production in October supported the price [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic asphalt plant operating rate increased, the refinery inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased. The high - level oil price supported the cost, but the pre - holiday demand was weak. The short - term spot price is expected to be weak, and the futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be range - bound; the asphalt - crude oil spread is expected to be weak; sell out - of - the - money call options on BU2512 [4][5]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU01 contract closed at 2893 (+ 0.35%) at night, and LU11 closed at 3455 (+ 0.58%) at night. The Singapore paper - cargo market had different month - spreads for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils [5]. - **Related News**: The ARA fuel oil inventory decreased, and the Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased. The high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil spot windows had no or few transactions [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: Russian energy facilities were attacked, but the refineries and transportation facilities recovered. The high - sulfur fuel oil supply increased, and the demand decreased. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply increased, and the demand had no specific driver [6][7]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: FU main contract is expected to be strongly volatile, and LU near - month contract is expected to be range - bound with crude oil; consider widening the LU01 - FU01 spread; sell out - of - the - money call options on FU01 [8]. PX & PTA - **Market Review**: PX2511 main contract closed at 6674 (+ 72/+ 1.09%) during the day and 6636 (- 38/- 0.57%) at night; TA601 main contract closed at 4678 (+ 52/+ 1.12%) during the day and 4652 (- 26/- 0.56%) at night. The PX spot price increased, and the PTA basis was stable [8]. - **Related News**: The PTA and polyester operating rates changed. The PTA production and sales increased [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PX supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be stable. The PTA supply is expected to increase slightly in October, and the demand is expected to be stable. The price is affected by macro and cost factors [9][10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be strong due to rising oil prices and market sentiment, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [10]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2601 main contract closed at 4246 (+ 12/+ 0.28%) and 4224 (- 22/- 0.52%) at night. The spot basis was stable [10][11]. - **Related News**: The ethylene glycol production and sales changed, and the operating rate decreased [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase due to planned maintenance and new device commissioning, and the demand is expected to be weak. The market is expected to be loose, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [12]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be weak and volatile; arbitrage is on hold; sell call options [12]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2511 main contract closed at 6372 (+ 76/+ 1.21%) during the day and 6326 (- 46/- 0.72%) at night. The spot price in different regions was stable or slightly increased [12][13]. - **Related News**: The polyester production and sales increased, and the terminal operating rate increased [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - fiber processing fee fluctuated narrowly. The raw material price increase and terminal operating rate increase promoted inventory reduction, but the terminal cash flow was in deficit, and the processing fee was expected to remain low [14]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [14]. PR (Bottle - Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2511 main contract closed at 5840 (+ 56/+ 0.97%) and 5808 (- 32/- 0.55%) at night. The spot market had a good trading atmosphere [14]. - **Related News**: The bottle - chip factory export price increased slightly [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream terminal bid for next - year's first - quarter orders, a bottle - chip device was under maintenance, and the operating rate decreased. The inventory was expected to decrease, and the processing fee was expected to fluctuate at a low level [15]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 main contract closed at 5922 (+ 15/+ 0.25%) during the day and 5894 (- 28/- 0.47%) at night; EB2511 main contract closed at 6958 (+ 30/+ 0.43%) during the day and 6927 (- 31/- 0.45%) at night. The pure benzene spot price increased slightly, and the styrene port inventory increased [16]. - **Related News**: The pure benzene and styrene production and sales and operating rates changed [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: The pure benzene supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be stable. The styrene supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decrease. The price is affected by inventory and downstream demand [17][18]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be strong due to geopolitical and macro factors, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; long pure benzene and short styrene in arbitrage; options are on hold [18]. Propylene - **Market Review**: PL2601 main contract closed at 6372 (+ 15/+ 0.24%) and 6371 (- 1/- 0.02%) at night. The spot price in different regions remained stable [18][19]. - **Related News**: The domestic propylene operating rate increased [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: The propane market entered the peak season, and the demand for PDH devices was expected to increase. The propylene supply increased due to device restart, and the market was loose. The downstream product profit was poor, and the load increase was limited [19][20]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is recommended to short - sell on rebounds; arbitrage is on hold; sell put options [21]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: The LLDPE market price partially weakened, and the PP spot price in different regions was stable or slightly changed. The linear futures increased slightly [21]. - **Related News**: The PE and PP maintenance ratios decreased, and the operating rates changed. The downstream industry operating rates increased slightly [21][22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream demand was in the peak season, and the pre - holiday inventory was concerned. The supply was expected to increase due to reduced maintenance and new device commissioning. The near - term cost increase supported the price, and the medium - term price was recommended to be short - sold on highs [23]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be volatile, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The PVC spot price was strong and volatile, and the futures price was also strong and volatile. The trading was light [23]. - **Related News**: The PVC production enterprise capacity utilization rate increased, the预售 volume increased slightly, the factory inventory increased, and the social inventory increased [24][25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PVC inventory was at a high level, and the supply was expected to increase due to new device commissioning. The demand was weak due to the real - estate market weakness, and the export was expected to decrease. The short - and medium - term outlook was bearish [26]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is bearish in the short - and medium - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [26]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The caustic soda spot price in different regions remained stable [26]. - **Related News**: The caustic soda production enterprise capacity utilization rate increased, and the inventory increased [28]. - **Logic Analysis**: The caustic soda market was in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term was affected by inventory and price reduction, and the medium - term was expected to be long after a sufficient correction [28]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term is weak, and medium - term is long after a sufficient correction; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures 01 contract closed at 1315 yuan (+ 8/+ 0.6%) during the day and 1306 yuan (- 9/- 0.7%) at night. The spot price in different regions changed slightly [29][31]. - **Related News**: The soda ash production, inventory, and profit changed. The market was weak and stable [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The soda ash supply was at a high level, and the demand was stable. The price was affected by inventory, downstream demand, and policy. The price was expected to be stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday [32]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday; long glass and short soda ash in short - term arbitrage; options are on hold [32][34]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures 01 contract closed at 1270 yuan (+ 33/+ 2.67%) and 1264 yuan (- 6/- 0.47%) at night. The spot price in different regions increased [34][35]. - **Related News**: The glass production, inventory, and profit changed. The market trading atmosphere was good [34][35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The glass production increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The price was affected by production, inventory, and demand. The price was expected to be volatile before the holiday [36]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile before the holiday; long glass and short soda ash in short - term arbitrage; options are on hold [36][37]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2341 (- 16/- 0.68%). The spot price in different regions was stable [38]. - **Related News**: The methanol production increased, and the device capacity utilization rate increased [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international device operating rate decreased, and the import recovered. The domestic supply was loose due to the end of autumn maintenance. The port inventory increased rapidly. The price rebound was limited due to supply and inventory [39]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: stop loss on short positions; arbitrage is on hold; sell call options [40]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures closed at 1674 (+ 1/+ 0.06%). The spot price was stable with small changes [40]. - **Related News**: The urea production and operating rate changed [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The urea supply was loose, and the demand was weak. The export had a certain

研究员：王子健 从业资格：F03087965 交易咨询资格：Z0019551 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 09 月 24 日星期三 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：17803978037 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 原木期价回调，主力 2511 合约收盘价 805.0 元/立方米，收跌 0.31%。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【 ...

Group 1: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The substantial support policies such as "anti - involution" in the polysilicon market have not been implemented in time, and the new energy - consumption national standard has limited impact on short - term supply and demand. The supply - side regulation effect is less than expected, and the industry's over - capacity pattern remains unchanged. The inventory of downstream component links is high, and prices are loosening. Future attention should be paid to national - level policies on capacity clearance and industry procurement, as well as the actual start - up rate and production reduction implementation of polysilicon enterprises, and the inventory digestion progress and new order demand of downstream photovoltaic component factories [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type polysilicon materials remained stable on September 22 compared with September 19, while the N - type material basis (average price) increased by 3420.00% [1]. - **Futures Price and Inter - month Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 3.24% from September 19 to September 22, and the spread between different months showed various changes [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 0.64%, while monthly production increased by 23.31%. Monthly polysilicon import decreased by 9.63%, and net export increased by 94.25%. Weekly and monthly silicon wafer production increased [1]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 6.85%, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.93% [1]. Group 2: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - From September to October, the supply of industrial silicon increases, and the supply - demand balance gradually becomes loose. The expected batch production reduction of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan during the flat - dry season is at the end of October, and the supply surplus is more obvious in October and narrows in November. The cost increase during the flat - dry season in the southwest boosts market sentiment. In the short term, industrial silicon has insufficient upward driving force, and the price may turn to oscillation, with the main price fluctuation range between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and industrial silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan in the fourth quarter [2]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The prices of various types of industrial silicon increased on September 22 compared with September 19, and the basis also showed significant changes [2]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spread between different months of industrial silicon futures contracts showed various changes [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: Monthly national and regional industrial silicon production increased, and the national and regional start - up rates also increased. The production of organic silicon DMC and polysilicon increased, while the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. Industrial silicon exports increased [2]. - **Inventory Change**: The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang decreased, while that in Yunnan and Sichuan increased slightly. Social inventory and non - warehouse receipt inventory increased slightly, and contract inventory decreased slightly [2]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures market is weak. Although the manufacturer's inventory has decreased recently, the inventory has actually transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory continues to rise. The weekly production remains high, and there is still an over - supply situation compared with the current rigid demand. In the medium term, there is no significant increase in downstream capacity, so the demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. If there is no actual capacity exit or load reduction, the inventory will be further pressured. Attention can be paid to the implementation of policies and the load - regulation situation of alkali plants. It is advisable to short on rebounds [4]. - **Glass**: The glass futures market is weak. The spot market trading has become dull, and the inventory of some middle - stream areas remains high without obvious reduction. In the long - term, as the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. Attention can be paid to the implementation of regional policies and the inventory - replenishment performance of the middle and lower reaches during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. In the short term, sentiment - driven factors may drive the spot market to improve, and the sustainability needs to be tracked [4]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: The prices of glass in different regions remained stable, and the prices of glass futures contracts decreased slightly [4]. - **Soda - Ash - related Price and Spread**: The prices of soda ash in different regions remained stable, and the prices of soda ash futures contracts decreased [4]. - **Supply**: The soda ash start - up rate and weekly production decreased, the float - glass daily melting volume decreased slightly, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory and soda - ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased, while the soda - ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased. The glass factory's soda - ash inventory days remained unchanged [4]. - **Real - estate Data**: The new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real - estate all showed different degrees of change [4]. Group 4: Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - On the supply side, the expected increase in future supply weakens the raw - material price and cost support, but the typhoon weather has raised concerns about short - term supply release. The pre - festival inventory replenishment of downstream tire factories is basically completed, and the inventory - reduction rhythm of natural rubber spot inventory has slowed down. On the demand side, although some enterprises still face shortages, the overall shipment performance is less than expected, and some enterprises' inventory may increase. Affected by the typhoon weather, the short - term rubber price will fluctuate strongly, with the 01 contract price ranging from 15000 - 16500 yuan/ton. Future attention should be paid to the raw - material output during the peak season in the main production areas and the impact of the La Nina phenomenon on supply. If the raw - material supply is smooth, the price may decline further; otherwise, it will continue to operate within the range [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of some rubber varieties remained stable, while the basis and non - standard price difference changed [5]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spread between different months of rubber futures contracts showed various changes [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of rubber in Thailand, Indonesia, and China in July showed different trends. The start - up rate of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased slightly. The domestic tire production in August increased, while the tire export decreased. The import of natural rubber and synthetic rubber increased [5]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded - area inventory and the上期所 factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber decreased, and the inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in the bonded and general - trade warehouses in Qingdao changed [5]. Group 5: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The log futures market oscillated. The spot price of the main standard delivery products remained unchanged, and the inventory decreased significantly. The demand (outbound volume) decreased, while the supply (expected arrival of New Zealand logs) increased. As the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season approaches, attention should be paid to whether the outbound volume improves significantly after entering the seasonal peak season. The current daily outbound volume is about 60,000 cubic meters, but it has not exceeded 70,000 cubic meters. The price below 800 yuan/cubic meter has high "receiving value". In the current pattern of "weak reality and strong expectation", it is recommended to go long on dips [7]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Price**: The log futures price oscillated, and the spot price of main standard delivery products remained unchanged [7]. - **Cost: Import Cost Calculation**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate and import theoretical cost changed slightly [7]. - **Port Shipment and Departure Ship Number**: The port shipment volume and departure ship number from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased [7]. - **Main Port Inventory and Daily Outbound Volume**: The national coniferous log inventory decreased, and the daily outbound volume decreased [7].

知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 | *业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年9月23日 | | | | 纪元菲 Z0013180 | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品相 | 9月22日 | 9月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧SI5530工业硅 | a500 | a320 | J20 | 1.60% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | ട്ടാ | 45 | 202 | 1122.22% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 9700 | 9600 | 100 | 1.04% | 元/肥 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | -50 | -505 | 455 | 90.10% | | | 新疆99硅 | 9000 | 8800 | 200 | 2.27% | | | 基差(新疆) | 820 | 295 | 555 | 188.14% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 9月 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The oil market is facing increasing supply pressure, with a high probability of inventory accumulation in Q3 and greater surplus pressure in Q4. Brent is expected to maintain a weak pattern, with attention on the support near $65.6 per barrel [2]. - The asphalt market has increasing supply and weak demand. Short - term spot prices are expected to run weakly, and the futures are expected to be weakly volatile [5][6]. - The fuel oil market has high - sulfur inventories suppressing prices, and low - sulfur supply increasing with no specific demand drivers. It is expected to be weakly volatile [8][9]. - The PX and PTA markets are affected by macro factors and oil prices. PX supply is expected to increase, and PTA supply and demand contradictions are expected to ease. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [11][13]. - The ethylene glycol market has an expected increase in supply and low - level port inventories. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [16]. - The short - fiber market has low processing fees and weak downstream demand. It is expected to be weakly volatile [17]. - The PR (bottle - chip) market has a transition from peak to off - peak demand, and processing fees are expected to fluctuate at a low level [19]. - The pure benzene and styrene markets are affected by macro and supply - demand factors. Supply is expected to increase, and prices are expected to be weakly volatile [24][26]. - The propylene market has an expected increase in supply and weak downstream demand. Prices are under pressure [28]. - The glass market has a marginal weakening of procurement sentiment. It is expected to be volatile before the festival [31][32]. - The soda ash market has high - level supply and stable demand. Before the festival, prices are expected to be stable, and after the festival, attention should be paid to policy and mid - stream pressure [34][35]. - The urea market has a loose supply and weak demand. It is expected to be weakly volatile [37][38]. - The methanol market has an increase in supply and high - level port inventories. The rebound height is limited, and it is recommended to short at high levels [40]. - The offset - printing paper market has a slight increase in supply and limited demand. It is recommended to short the 01 contract [42][43]. - The pulp market has high port inventories and weak demand, but there is support below. It is recommended to try long positions in the SP 11 contract [46]. - The log market has a supply - demand double - weak situation. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can place a small number of long positions [49][50]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber markets have inventory changes and macro factors affecting prices. It is recommended to hold short positions in the RU 01 contract and wait and see for the NR 11 contract [52][53]. - The butadiene rubber market has a decrease in capacity utilization and inventory changes. It is recommended to hold short positions in the BR 11 contract [55]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Review - **Crude Oil**: WTI2510 settled at $62.64, down $0.04 (- 0.06%); Brent2511 settled at $66.57, down $0.11 (- 0.16%); SC2511 fell to 484.2 yuan/barrel, and 477.5 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Asphalt**: BU2511 closed at 3387 points (- 0.41%) at night, BU2512 closed at 3329 points (- 0.69%) at night. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [3]. - **Fuel Oil**: FU01 closed at 2772 (- 0.22%) at night, LU11 closed at 3363 (- 0.30%) at night. Singapore paper - cargo market had specific month - spreads [6]. - **PX & PTA**: PX2511 closed at 6592 (- 0.03%) during the day and 6562 (- 0.46%) at night; TA601 closed at 4586 (- 0.39%) during the day and 4564 (- 0.48%) at night. Spot prices also had corresponding changes [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: EG2601 closed at 4268 (- 0.67%) during the day and 4249 (- 0.45%) at night. Spot and futures basis and prices were provided [14]. - **Short - Fiber**: PF2511 closed at 6344 (- 0.91%) during the day and 6318 (- 0.41%) at night. Spot prices in different regions decreased [16][17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: PR2511 closed at 5816 (- 0.89%) during the day and 5796 (- 0.34%) at night. Spot market had an acceptable trading atmosphere [19]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: BZ2503 closed at 5921 (- 0.75%) during the day and 5905 (- 0.27%) at night; EB2511 closed at 6928 (- 0.92%) during the day and 6901 (- 0.39%) at night. Spot prices and inventories changed [22][23]. - **Propylene**: PL2601 closed at 6424 (- 0.59%) during the day and 6401 (- 0.36%) at night. Spot prices in different regions had different trends [27]. - **Glass**: The glass 01 contract closed at 1199 yuan/ton (- 1.40%), 1179 yuan/ton (- 1.67%) at night. Spot prices in different regions had different performance [29]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash 01 contract closed at 1293 yuan (- 1.9%), 1276 yuan (- 1.3%) at night. Spot prices in different regions changed [33]. - **Urea**: The urea futures closed at 1660 (- 0.06%). Spot prices decreased across the board [35][36]. - **Methanol**: The methanol futures closed at 2349 (- 0.17%). Spot prices in different regions were provided [38][39]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: OP2601 was volatile and closed at 4234 at night. Market and raw material prices were stable [40]. - **Pulp**: The SP 11 contract closed at 4986, down 22 points (- 0.4%). Imported pulp prices in different varieties had different trends [43]. - **Log**: The 11 - month log contract closed at 807.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.44%. Spot prices were stable [46]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: RU 01 closed at 15600, down 15 points (- 0.10%); NR 11 closed at 12455, up 30 points (+ 0.24%); BR 11 closed at 11500, down 5 points (- 0.04%). Spot and futures prices in different varieties were provided [50][51][53]. Related Information - **Crude Oil**: Fed officials had different views on interest - rate cuts. The net long positions of traders in crude - oil futures and options increased. Middle - East oil - producing countries increased production, and the demand peak season ended [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: In different regions, factors such as rainfall, refinery production resumption, and project construction affected supply and demand and prices [3][4]. - **Fuel Oil**: Russian refineries had maintenance and damage incidents, and Singapore's spot - window transactions were limited [7]. - **PX & PTA**: PTA plants had restart, maintenance, and load - reduction situations due to different reasons [10][12]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory increased slightly, and the downstream polyester sales had different performances [14]. - **Short - Fiber**: The downstream polyester sales had different performances, and the short - fiber factory prices decreased [16][17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: Polyester bottle - chip factories' export quotes decreased slightly, and a 60 - ton bottle - chip device in Jiangyin was under maintenance [19]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Pure benzene and styrene had changes in plant maintenance, production, and port inventories [23][24][25]. - **Propylene**: The domestic propylene and propane - dehydrogenation operating loads increased [28]. - **Glass**: There were news about financial and industrial policies, and different regions' glass markets had different performances [29][30]. - **Soda Ash**: Some soda - ash plants resumed production, and the total inventory decreased [34]. - **Urea**: The daily production increased, and the开工 rate was high. The inventory of production enterprises increased [36][37]. - **Methanol**: International methanol production decreased, and some Iranian devices had problems [39]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: A paper - making project of Jindong Paper reached a milestone, and the export volume and price of double - offset paper and coated paper decreased [40][41]. - **Pulp**: The import volume of bleached pulp and wood chips decreased in August, and the central bank official made a statement [44][45]. - **Log**: The number of pre - arrival ships of New Zealand logs increased, and the inventory decreased [47]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: An Indian tire company adjusted its export strategy due to US tariffs [52][54]. Logical Analysis - **Crude Oil**: The month - spread of Brent was stable, while that of Dubai weakened. Supply pressure increased, and the price was expected to be weak [2]. - **Asphalt**: Supply increased, demand was weak, and inventory trends were different. Futures prices were expected to be weakly volatile [5][6]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur inventories suppressed prices, and low - sulfur supply increased with no specific demand drivers [8][9]. - **PX & PTA**: Affected by macro and oil - price factors, PX supply increased, and PTA supply - demand contradictions eased [11][13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply was expected to increase, and port inventories were at a low level. Prices were expected to be weakly volatile [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Processing fees were low, and downstream demand was weak. It was expected to be weakly volatile [17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: Demand transitioned from peak to off - peak, and processing fees were expected to fluctuate at a low level [19]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Affected by macro and supply - demand factors, supply increased, and prices were expected to be weakly volatile [24][26]. - **Propylene**: Supply was expected to increase, and downstream demand was weak. Prices were under pressure [28]. - **Glass**: Procurement sentiment weakened marginally. It was expected to be volatile before the festival [31][32]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply was at a high level, and demand was stable. Before the festival, prices were expected to be stable, and after the festival, attention should be paid to policy and mid - stream pressure [34][35]. - **Urea**: Supply was loose, and demand was weak. It was expected to be weakly volatile [37][38]. - **Methanol**: Supply increased, and port inventories were at a high level. The rebound height was limited [40]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: Supply increased slightly, and demand was limited. It was recommended to short the 01 contract [42][43]. - **Pulp**: Port inventories were high, and demand was weak, but there was support below [46]. - **Log**: Supply - demand was double - weak. It was recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors could place a small number of long positions [49][50]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: Inventory changes and macro factors affected prices. It was recommended to hold short positions in the RU 01 contract and wait and see for the NR 11 contract [52][53]. Trading Strategies - **Crude Oil**: Unilateral: Narrow - range oscillation, focus on the support of Brent near $65.6 per barrel; Arbitrage: Gasoline and diesel cracks were weak; Option: Wait and see [2]. - **Asphalt**: Unilateral: Weakly volatile; Arbitrage: The asphalt - oil spread was weakly volatile; Option: Sell out - of - the - money call options for BU2512 [6]. - **Fuel Oil**: Unilateral: Weakly volatile; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell out - of - the - money call options for FU01 at high levels [9]. - **PX & PTA**: Unilateral: Weakly volatile; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [14]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Unilateral: Weakly volatile; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Unilateral: Weakly volatile; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: Unilateral: Weakly volatile; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [19][20]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Unilateral: Weakly volatile; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [24][26]. - **Propylene**: Unilateral: It is recommended to short on rebounds, not to chase shorts; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Not mentioned [29]. - **Glass**: Unilateral: The price is expected to be stable before the festival; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [33]. - **Soda Ash**: Unilateral: Stable before the festival, pay attention to policy and mid - stream pressure after the festival; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [35]. - **Urea**: Unilateral: Weakly volatile; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [38]. - **Methanol**: Unilateral: Short at high levels, not to chase shorts; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell call options [40]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: Unilateral: Short the 01 contract based on the lower limit of the spot - market price; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell out - of - the - money call options [43]. - **Pulp**: Unilateral: Try long positions in the SP 11 contract, enter gradually based on last week's low; Arbitrage: Wait and see, focus on the 11 - 1 reverse spread; Option: Wait and see [46]. - **Log**: Unilateral: Wait and see, aggressive investors can place a small number of long positions; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [50]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: Unilateral: Hold short positions in the RU 01 contract, wait and see for the NR 11 contract; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [53].

Group 1: Glass and Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core Viewpoints - **Glass**: Last week, the macro environment initially drove the glass futures market up, but the market corrected later. Although the spot market had good sales and inventory decreased, some regions still had high intermediate - level inventories. The deep - processing orders improved seasonally but were still weak, and the low operating rate of low - emissivity (Low - E) glass did not show peak - season characteristics. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs to clear excess capacity. Track policy implementation and downstream restocking. In the short - term, sentiment drives the market, and track its sustainability. For the medium - term, focus on peak - season demand [3]. - **Rubber**: Near the holiday, capital's risk - aversion sentiment increased, and the macro sentiment of commodities weakened. It is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the 01 contract ranging from 15,000 - 16,500. In the supply side, the rainy season and typhoons in the producing areas affect rubber tapping, and the expected increase in supply in the future suppresses raw - material prices. The cost support has weakened. The downstream tire factories have basically completed pre - holiday stockpiling, and it is difficult for natural - rubber futures inventory to significantly decrease. In the demand side, some enterprises still lack goods, and the equipment runs stably to replenish inventory, but the overall sales are not as expected, and some enterprises' inventory may increase. Some enterprises may control production flexibly [1]. Summary by Catalog Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass prices in different regions were stable. Glass 2505 rose 1.13% to 1343, and Glass 2509 rose 1.30% to 1405. The 05 - contract basis decreased by 8.43%. For纯碱, prices in different regions were unchanged.纯碱 2505 rose 0.50% to 1407, and纯碱 2509 rose 0.86% to 1454. The 05 - contract basis decreased by 7.00% [3]. - **Supply**: The soda - ash mining rate decreased by 2.02% to 85.53%, and the weekly soda - ash production decreased by 2.02% to 74.57 million tons. The float - glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.47% to 15.95 million tons, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged at 89,290 tons [3]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory decreased by 1.10% to 6090.80, the soda - ash factory inventory decreased by 2.33% to 175.56 million tons, and the soda - ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 10.69% to 61.49 million tons. The glass - factory soda - ash inventory days remained unchanged at 20.4 [3]. - **Real - Estate Data**: The new construction area increased by 0.09% to - 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43% to 0.05%, the completion area decreased by 0.03% to - 0.22%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% to - 6.55% [3]. Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 0.68% to 14,700 yuan/ton, and the full - latex basis decreased by 65. The Thai - standard mixed - rubber price decreased by 1.67% to 14,750 yuan/ton, and the non - standard price difference decreased by 37.72%. The cup - lump price in the international market decreased by 1.16% to 51.05 Thai baht/kg, and the glue price increased by 0.18% to 56.30 [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 50.00% to 15, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 66.67% to 5, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 55.56% to - 20 [1]. - **Production**: In July, Thailand's rubber production increased by 1.61% to 421.60 thousand tons, Indonesia's increased by 12.09% to 197.50 thousand tons, and India's decreased by 2.17% to 45.00 thousand tons. China's production decreased by 1.30 to 101.30 thousand tons [1]. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory decreased by 1.66% to 592,275, and the natural - rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 3.07% to 44,553 [1]. Group 2: Log and Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core Viewpoints - **Log**: The log futures market closed up last Friday. The spot price of the main deliverable log was stable. The inventory increased, and the demand (out - bound volume) slightly increased. The supply of New Zealand logs to Chinese ports decreased. As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, observe whether the out - bound volume improves. The price below 800 yuan has high "receiving value". In the "weak reality, strong expectation" situation, it is recommended to buy on dips [4]. - **Industrial Silicon**: From the fundamental perspective, the supply - demand balance of industrial silicon will gradually become looser from September to October. The expected large - scale production cuts of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan during the flat - and low - water periods will occur at the end of October. The supply will reach a peak in October, and the balance is expected to be significantly loose, then narrow in November. The cost increase in the flat - and low - water periods in the west raises the industry's average cost, bringing positive sentiment to the market. In the short term, the upward - driving force of industrial silicon is insufficient, and the price may oscillate, mainly in the range of 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the production - cut rhythm of silicon - material enterprises and Sichuan - Yunnan industrial - silicon enterprises in the fourth quarter [5]. Summary by Catalog Log - **Prices and Spreads**: Log futures prices in different contracts rose slightly. The 11 - 01 spread decreased by 15 to - 15, the 11 - 03 spread increased by 2.5 to - 20, and the 11 - contract basis decreased by 3.5 to - 55 [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 6.38% to 44. The total inventory of national coniferous logs increased by 2.72% to 302 million cubic meters, and the daily average out - bound volume increased by 3% to 6.29 million cubic meters [4]. Industrial Silicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of different types of industrial silicon were stable. The basis of different types of industrial silicon changed significantly. For example, the basis of East - China oxygen - passing SI5530 decreased by 89.89%. The monthly spreads also had large fluctuations, such as the 2510 - 2511 spread decreasing by 233.33% [5]. - **Production and Inventory**: The national industrial - silicon production increased by 14.01% to 38.57 million tons, and the production in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan all increased. The national operating rate increased by 6.20% to 55.87%. The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 1.07% to 12.04 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.74% to 54.30 million tons [5]. Group 3: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core Viewpoints A weekly industry self - discipline meeting was held to discuss the self - discipline process. Some leading enterprises plan to cut production. The increase in downstream prices, the meeting, and some enterprises' low inventory (unequally distributed among enterprises) support the polysilicon price increase. Currently, low - price polysilicon resources are scarce and snapped up, while high - price resources face downstream resistance. It is expected that the polysilicon market will continue to oscillate in the short term [6]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices and Spreads**: The average price of N - type re - feed increased by 0.10% to 52,650 yuan/ton, and the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 49,500 yuan/ton. The N - type material basis increased by 91.74% to - 50. The main - contract price of polysilicon futures decreased by 0.95% to 52,700. The spreads between different contracts changed significantly [6]. - **Production and Inventory**: The weekly polysilicon production decreased by 0.64% to 3.10 million tons, and the monthly production increased by 23.31% to 13.17 million tons. The polysilicon inventory decreased by 6.85% to 20.40 million tons, and the silicon - wafer inventory increased by 1.93% to 16.87 GW [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic growth is slowing down, with drags from the real estate sector, weakening consumption support, and declining investment growth. However, policy - side counter - cyclical adjustments have been implemented, and the stock market remains strong while the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed has started a "preventive降息周期" [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, the upward risk of the US dollar may be higher than the downward risk. The exchange rate may oscillate around 7.10 in the short - term, and policy signals from the RMB central parity rate should be focused on [4]. - The stock index is expected to be volatile in the short - term due to the multi - empty game and the approaching holidays [6]. - Treasury bonds should focus on central bank dynamics. There may be opportunities for long - side intervention on dips [7]. - Precious metals are expected to run strongly as the Fed's monetary policy is in a loose cycle, and gold price will continue to rise [10]. - Copper prices may oscillate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton due to tight supply in the short - term and stable demand [15]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly, alumina may run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate strongly [17]. - Zinc is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern and is recommended to be under - weighted [20]. - Nickel and stainless steel are mainly affected by the macro - level, and the fundamentals provide no clear guidance [21]. - Tin prices may oscillate around 274,000 yuan per ton, with short - term supply remaining tight [23]. - Carbonate lithium prices are expected to oscillate between 72,000 - 76,000 yuan per ton before the National Day holiday [25]. - Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly during the dry season but are restricted by inventory. Polysilicon trading is complex, and high volatility requires cautious participation [28]. - Lead prices are expected to be cautiously bullish as the supply - demand contradiction lies in raw materials [29]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate before the holiday, with limited upward and downward space [30]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with support from replenishment and high molten iron production but limited upward space due to demand and high shipments [34]. - Coking coal and coke prices are supported by pre - holiday replenishment, but the rebound height is restricted by high steel inventory [35]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are supported by cost and term structure improvement, and trial long - positions are recommended [38]. - Crude oil is under fundamental pressure, and the medium - term trend is bearish, although geopolitical risks may cause short - term rebounds [40]. - LPG is expected to oscillate weakly as the overall driving force weakens [44]. - PTA - PX needs macro - level drivers to break through, and the polyester peak season is not highly expected [48]. - MEG is expected to oscillate between 4200 - 4400 yuan, and short - term downward space is limited [51]. - Methanol is recommended to reduce long - positions and hold short - put options [54]. - PP's downward space is limited, and attention should be paid to device changes and opportunities for long - positions on dips [57]. - PE is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern as the real - world situation is weak but the valuation is low [60]. - PVC is recommended to be observed temporarily due to the coexistence of weak fundamentals and macro - level expectations [62]. - Pure benzene is facing increasing surplus pressure, and its price is expected to be weakly volatile. Styrene is expected to oscillate, and the spread between pure benzene and styrene can be considered to be widened [64][66]. - Fuel oil's cracking is stabilizing, and short - term short - selling is not recommended. Low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and the short - term situation remains weak [67][69]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate weakly, with the possibility of a last - chance rise in the futures market during the demand peak season [71]. - Urea is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 yuan in the 01 contract, with support and suppression coexisting [73]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - **Market Information**: There were various events such as the China - US presidential phone call, policy announcements in China (e.g., Shanghai's property tax adjustment), and overseas events like the Fed's interest - rate decision, Japan's central bank actions, and geopolitical events [1]. - **Core Logic**: The macro - economy shows a complex situation with slowing growth and policy counter - cyclical adjustments. The stock and commodity markets are affected differently, and overseas, the Fed's policy path depends on employment and inflation [2]. 3.2 RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Performance**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar declined on Friday, with the central parity rate also being adjusted downwards [3]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed faces challenges in formulating monetary policy. The US dollar index may mainly trade based on the current situation, and the RMB exchange rate may oscillate around 7.10, with policy signals from the central parity rate being crucial [4]. 3.3 Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index was volatile with reduced trading volume last Friday, and the trading enthusiasm declined but sentiment improved [6]. - **Core Logic**: The market is in a multi - empty game. With the approaching holidays, the market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [6]. 3.4 Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: Treasury bonds rebounded last week but dropped significantly on Friday, and the money market was tight due to tax payments [7]. - **Core Logic**: The economic data in August showed downward pressure, but the market paid little attention. The bond market was less affected by the stock market. The market lacks a clear right - side signal, and attention should be paid to central bank dynamics [7]. 3.5 Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - **Market Performance**: London spot gold and silver continued to rise last week, with short - term adjustments after the Fed's interest - rate cut but strong rebounds on Friday [10]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed is in a monetary policy easing cycle, and gold prices will continue to rise. Attention should be paid to the Fed's policy expectations and relevant economic data [10]. 3.6 Copper - **Market Performance**: The main futures contract of Shanghai copper declined during the week, and inventories changed differently in different markets [13]. - **Core Logic**: The decline in copper prices was due to the Fed's interest - rate cut and Powell's speech. In the future, copper prices may oscillate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton due to tight supply and stable demand [15]. 3.7 Aluminum Industry Chain - **Market Performance**: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy showed different trends, and relevant trading volumes and positions also changed [16]. - **Core Logic**: For aluminum, after the interest - rate cut, the focus may shift to fundamentals, and prices may oscillate strongly. Alumina is in a state of supply surplus and may have a weak price trend. Cast aluminum alloy is supported by cost and may oscillate strongly [17]. 3.8 Zinc - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated slightly, and trading volume and positions changed [19]. - **Core Logic**: The zinc market is affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut and supply - demand fundamentals. Supply is in surplus, and demand is average. It is recommended to maintain an under - weighted position [20]. 3.9 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel declined, and relevant spot prices and inventories also changed [20]. - **Core Logic**: They are mainly affected by the macro - level, with limited fundamental adjustments. The future trend needs further observation [21]. 3.10 Tin - **Market Performance**: The main futures contract of Shanghai tin declined slightly during the week, and inventories increased [22]. - **Core Logic**: The decline was due to the Fed's interest - rate cut and Powell's speech. In the short - term, supply is tight, and prices may oscillate around 274,000 yuan per ton [23]. 3.11 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: The weighted index contract of carbonate lithium rose last week, with changes in trading volume, positions, and warehouse receipts [24]. - **Core Logic**: The lithium - battery industry chain performed well last week. With the expected increase in downstream demand, carbonate lithium prices may oscillate before the National Day [24][25]. 3.12 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The weighted futures contracts of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different trends, with changes in trading volume, positions, and warehouse receipts [26]. - **Core Logic**: Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly during the dry season but are restricted by inventory. Polysilicon trading is complex, and high volatility requires cautious participation [28]. 3.13 Lead - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated at a high level, and trading volume and positions changed [29]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut has little impact on lead prices. The supply - demand fundamentals are stable, and prices may rise cautiously [29]. 3.14 Black Metals 3.14.1 Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: Steel prices were strong, and there were price adjustments in billets [30]. - **Core Logic**: The supply of steel decreased, and demand improved slightly, but inventory was still at a high level. Before the holiday, steel prices are expected to oscillate with limited space [30]. 3.14.2 Iron Ore - **Core Logic**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the market may return to fundamental trading. Supply is abundant, demand is strong, and inventory is transferring from ports to steel mills. Prices are expected to oscillate [32][33]. 3.14.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: There were relevant geopolitical and policy - related events. - **Core Logic**: Downstream pre - holiday replenishment has started, and the market's sentiment is improving. However, high steel inventory restricts the rebound height of coking coal and coke prices [35]. 3.14.4 Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - **Market Performance**: The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese rose, and positions decreased [37]. - **Core Logic**: They are supported by cost and term - structure improvement. The long - term logic is related to the anti - involution expectation, and trial long - positions are recommended [38]. 3.15 Energy and Chemicals 3.15.1 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: International oil prices weakened, with declines in both WTI and Brent crude [40]. - **Core Logic**: The core contradiction is between fundamental pressure and geopolitical support. Fundamentals are bearish in the medium - term, while geopolitical events may cause short - term rebounds [40]. 3.15.2 LPG - **Market Performance**: LPG prices declined, and relevant spot prices also changed [42]. - **Core Logic**: The overall driving force is weakening, with supply increasing slightly and demand changing little [44]. 3.15.3 PTA - PX - **Market Performance**: The prices of PX and PTA were affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors [45]. - **Core Logic**: The polyester peak season is not highly expected, and macro - level drivers are needed for a breakthrough [48]. 3.15.4 MEG - Bottle Chip - **Market Performance**: The inventory of MEG increased, and the prices were affected by supply, demand, and cost factors [49]. - **Core Logic**: MEG is under pressure from inventory expectations but has limited downward space. It is expected to oscillate between 4200 - 4400 yuan [51]. 3.15.5 Methanol - **Market Performance**: The price of methanol changed, and the inventory situation was different in different regions [53]. - **Core Logic**: The main contradiction lies in the port, and it is recommended to reduce long - positions and hold short - put options [54]. 3.15.6 PP - **Market Performance**: The price of PP declined, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [55]. - **Core Logic**: The downstream demand recovery is less than expected, but the profit compression may trigger device shutdowns and a potential rebound [57]. 3.15.7 PE - **Market Performance**: The price of PE declined, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [58]. - **Core Logic**: The real - world situation is weak, but the low valuation limits the downward space, and an oscillatory pattern is expected [60]. 3.15.8 PVC - **Market Performance**: PVC prices were at a low level, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [61]. - **Core Logic**: The industry has weak fundamentals, but macro - level expectations make short - selling less attractive. It is recommended to observe temporarily [62]. 3.15.9 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Performance**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene declined, and their inventory situations changed [63][65]. - **Core Logic**: Pure benzene faces increasing surplus pressure, and styrene may oscillate. The spread between them can be considered to be widened [64][66]. 3.15.10 Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil changed, and their supply, demand, and inventory situations were different [67][68]. - **Core Logic**: Fuel oil's cracking is stabilizing, and short - term short - selling is not recommended. Low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and the short - term situation remains weak [67][69]. 3.15.11 Asphalt - **Market Performance**: The price of asphalt declined, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [70]. - **Core Logic**: Asphalt is expected to oscillate weakly, with the possibility of a last - chance rise in the futures market during the demand peak season [71]. 3.15.12 Urea - **Market Performance**: The price of urea declined, and its inventory situation changed [72]. - **Core Logic**: Urea is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 yuan in the 01 contract, with support and suppression coexisting [73].

Report on the Rubber Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that rubber prices will oscillate weakly in the short term, with the 01 contract trading in the range of 15,000 - 16,500. The supply side is affected by the rainy season and typhoons in the producing areas, and the expected increase in raw material output in the future suppresses the raw material prices. The cost support has weakened, and the pre - holiday inventory replenishment of downstream tire factories is basically completed, so the natural rubber inventory is unlikely to see a significant reduction. On the demand side, although some enterprises are short of goods, the overall sales performance is below expectations, and some enterprises may control production flexibly. As the holiday approaches, the risk - aversion sentiment of funds increases, and the macro - sentiment of commodities weakens [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 100 yuan to 14,700 yuan, a decline of 0.68%. The basis of whole - milk rubber decreased by 65 to - 835. - The price of Thai - standard mixed rubber decreased by 250 yuan to 14,750 yuan, a decline of 1.67%. The non - standard price difference decreased by 215 to - 785, a decline of 37.72%. - The FOB intermediate price of cup rubber in the international market decreased by 0.60 Thai baht per kilogram to 51.05 Thai baht per kilogram, a decline of 1.16%. The FOB intermediate price of glue in the international market increased by 0.10 to 56.30, an increase of 0.18% [1]. Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 15 to 15, a decline of 50.00%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 10 to 5, a decline of 66.67%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 25 to - 20, an increase of 55.56% [1]. Production and Consumption Data - In July, Thailand's production was 421,600 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons or 1.61% compared with the previous month. Indonesia's production was 197,500 tons, an increase of 21,300 tons or 12.09%. India's production was 45,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons or 2.17%. China's production was 101,300 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons [1]. - The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles was 73.66%, an increase of 0.20 percentage points. The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires for automobiles was 65.66%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points. In August, domestic tire production was 10.2954 million tons, an increase of 859,000 tons or 9.10%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 63.01 million pieces, a decrease of 3.64 million pieces or 5.46% [1]. Inventory Change - The bonded area inventory decreased by 10,020 tons to 592,275 tons, a decline of 1.66%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1,411 tons to 44,553 tons, a decline of 3.07% [1]. Report on the Glass and Soda Ash Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - **Soda Ash**: The fundamental problem of over - supply still exists. Although the manufacturers' inventory has decreased recently, the inventory has actually been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory continues to rise. The weekly production remains high, and the over - supply still exists compared with the current rigid demand. In the medium term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream production capacity, so the demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. If there is no actual production capacity withdrawal or load reduction, the inventory will be further pressured. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. - **Glass**: The spot market has good transactions, and the inventory has decreased this week. However, the inventory of some middle - stream enterprises in some regions remains high. The deep - processing orders have improved seasonally but are still weak, and the operating rate of low - emissivity (Low - E) glass is continuously low. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the completion volume is shrinking. The industry needs to clear production capacity to solve the over - supply problem. It is necessary to track the implementation of regional policies and the inventory - replenishment performance of the middle and lower reaches during the "Golden September and Silver October" [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Spread - **Glass**: The price of glass 2505 increased by 15 yuan to 1343 yuan, an increase of 1.13%. The price of glass 2509 increased by 18 yuan to 1405 yuan, an increase of 1.30%. The 05 basis decreased by 15 to - 193, a decline of 8.43%. - **Soda Ash**: The price of soda ash 2505 increased by 7 yuan to 1407 yuan, an increase of 0.50%. The price of soda ash 2509 increased by 12 yuan to 1454 yuan, an increase of 0.86%. The 05 basis decreased by 7 to - 107, a decline of 7.00% [3]. Supply - The soda ash mining rate decreased by 2.02 percentage points to 85.53%. The weekly production of soda ash decreased by 15,000 tons to 745,700 tons, a decline of 2.02%. The daily melting volume of float glass decreased by 1,000 tons to 159,500 tons, a decline of 0.47%. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged at 89,290 tons [3]. Inventory - The glass inventory decreased by 675,000 tons to 60.908 million tons, a decline of 1.10%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 42,000 tons to 1.7556 million tons, a decline of 2.33%. The soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 59,000 tons to 614,900 tons, an increase of 10.69% [3]. Real - Estate Data - The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area was - 0.09%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points compared with the previous month. The year - on - year growth rate of construction area was 0.05%, a decrease of 2.43 percentage points. The year - on - year growth rate of completion area was - 0.22%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The year - on - year growth rate of sales area was - 6.55%, a decrease of 6.50 percentage points [3]. Report on the Log Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View As the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season approaches, it is necessary to observe whether the shipment volume improves significantly. The current average daily shipment volume is still below 70,000 cubic meters. The price below 800 yuan per cubic meter has a high "receiving value". In the current pattern of "weak reality and strong expectation", it is recommended to go long on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures and Spot Prices - The price of log 2511 increased by 3.5 yuan to 805 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 0.44%. The price of log 2601 increased by 2 yuan to 818.5 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 0.24%. The price of log 2603 increased by 1 yuan to 825 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 0.12%. The price of log 2605 remained unchanged at 828 yuan per cubic meter [4]. - The 11 - 01 spread decreased by 15 to - 15. The 11 - 03 spread increased by 2.5 to - 20. The 11 - contract basis decreased by 3.5 to - 55. The 01 - contract basis decreased by 66.5 to - 68.5 [4]. Import Cost and Shipping - The import theoretical cost was 796.96 yuan, an increase of 0.37 yuan, an increase of 0%. - The number of ships departing from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 3 to 44, a decline of 6.38% [4]. Inventory and Demand - The total inventory of coniferous logs in China increased by 80,000 cubic meters to 3.02 million cubic meters, an increase of 2.72%. - The average daily shipment volume of logs increased by 0.17 million cubic meters to 6.29 million cubic meters, an increase of 3% [4]. Report on the Industrial Silicon Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View From a fundamental perspective, from September to October, as the supply of industrial silicon increases, the balance will gradually become looser. The expectation of large - scale production cuts in Sichuan and Yunnan silicon enterprises during the flat - and - low - water period is at the end of October, so the expected surplus in October is more obvious and will narrow again in November. At the same time, the increase in production costs in the southwest during the flat - and - low - water period raises the average industry cost, giving positive sentiment to the market. It is expected that the industrial silicon price will continue to lack upward driving force in the short term and may turn to oscillation, with the main price fluctuation range between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan per ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the production - cut rhythm of silicon - material enterprises and Sichuan and Yunnan industrial silicon enterprises in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 8,350 yuan. The basis decreased by 400 to 45, a decline of 89.89%. - The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,600 yuan. The basis decreased by 97 to - 202, a decline of 380.95%. - The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon remained unchanged at 8,800 yuan. The basis decreased by 400 to 295, a decline of 57.55% [5]. Monthly Spread - The 2510 - 2511 spread decreased by 35 to - 50, a decline of 233.33%. The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 5 to - 390, a decline of 1.30%. The 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 5 to 5. The 2601 - 2602 spread increased by 30 to 10, an increase of 150.00% [5]. Fundamental Data - **Production**: The national industrial silicon production was 385,700 tons, an increase of 47,400 tons or 14.01%. Xinjiang's production was 169,700 tons, an increase of 19,400 tons or 12.91%. Yunnan's production was 58,100 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons or 41.19%. Sichuan's production was 53,700 tons, an increase of 5,200 tons or 10.72% [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The national operating rate was 55.87%, an increase of 3.26 percentage points or 6.20%. Xinjiang's operating rate was 60.61%, an increase of 8.02 percentage points or 15.25%. Yunnan's operating rate was 47.39%, an increase of 14.50 percentage points or 44.09%. Sichuan's operating rate was 44.29%, an increase of 7.33 percentage points or 19.83% [5]. - **Downstream Production**: The production of organic silicon DMC was 223,100 tons, an increase of 23,300 tons or 11.66%. The production of polysilicon was 131,700 tons, an increase of 24,900 tons or 23.31%. The production of recycled aluminum alloy was 615,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or - 1.60%. The export volume of industrial silicon was 74,000 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons or 8.32% [5]. Inventory Change - The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 0.13 tons to 12.04 tons, a decline of 1.07%. The factory - warehouse inventory in Yunnan increased by 0.16 tons to 3.10 tons, an increase of 5.45%. The factory - warehouse inventory in Sichuan increased by 0.01 tons to 2.29 tons, an increase of 0.44%. The social inventory increased by 0.40 tons to 54.30 tons, an increase of 0.74% [5]. Report on the Polysilicon Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the industry self - discipline meeting was held again to discuss the self - discipline process. Some leading enterprises have production - cut plans in the future. The increase in downstream prices, the meeting, and the low inventory of some enterprises (the inventory distribution among enterprises is uneven) provide support for the price increase of polysilicon enterprises. Currently, low - price resources in the polysilicon market are scarce and are being snapped up, while high - price resources still face some resistance from downstream. It is expected that the polysilicon market will continue to oscillate in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 increased by 50 yuan to 52,650 yuan, an increase of 0.10%. The average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 49,500 yuan. The basis of N - type material increased by 555 yuan to - 50, an increase of 91.74% [6]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The price of the main contract decreased by 505 yuan to 52,700 yuan, a decline of 0.95%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased by 130 to 120, an increase of 1300.00%. The spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract decreased by 50 to - 2590, a decline of 1.97% [6]. Fundamental Data - **Weekly Data**: The production of silicon wafers was 13.92 GW, an increase of 0.04 GW or 0.29%. The production of polysilicon was 3.10 kilotons, a decrease of 0.02 kilotons or - 0.64%. - **Monthly Data**: The production of polysilicon was 131.7 kilotons, an increase of 24.9 kilotons or 23.31%. The import volume of polysilicon was 0.11 kilotons, an increase of 0.03 kilotons or 40.30%. The export volume of polysilicon was 0.22 kilotons, an increase of 0.01 kilotons or 5.96%. The net export volume of polysilicon was 0.11 kilotons, a decrease of 0.02 kilotons or - 14.92% [6]. Inventory Change - The inventory of polysilicon decreased by 1.5 kilotons to 20.4 kilotons, a decline of 6.85%. The inventory of silicon wafers increased by 0.32 GW to 16.87 GW, an increase of 1.93%. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 20 to 7900 hands, an increase of 0.25% [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in the Shandong market increased by 10 yuan/cubic meter compared to last week, while the price in the Jiangsu market remained flat. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply. - As of September 14, there were 21 ships departing from New Zealand in September, with 16 bound for mainland China and 5 for Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced loads. It is expected that 15 ships will arrive in September and 6 in October, with an estimated arrival of 1.41 million cubic meters in September. - As of the week of September 12, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port increased by 0.34 million cubic meters week - on - week, and that of Taicang Port increased by 0.07 million cubic meters week - on - week. The total inventory of the four major ports increased by 35,600 cubic meters compared to the previous week. - As of September 19, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 increased by 0.7% compared to last week, and the market showed a narrow - range oscillation. The fundamental situation maintained a marginal weak supply - demand pattern. [19] 3. Summary by Directory Overview - The spot price of 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in Shandong was 755 yuan/cubic meter, up 10 yuan/cubic meter from last week; in Jiangsu, it was 765 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week. The price of 3.9 - meter 40+ radiata pine in Shandong remained flat at 850 yuan/cubic meter. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market were out of stock [4]. Supply - As of September 14, 21 ships departed from New Zealand in September, with 16 going to mainland China and 5 to Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced loads. It is expected that 15 ships will arrive in September and 6 in October, with an estimated arrival of 1.41 million cubic meters in September [5]. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of September 12, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 2.02 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.34 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 1.19 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.07 million cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port's inventory was about 1.1379 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 10,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port's inventory was about 464,900 cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 24,200 cubic meters), Xinminzhou's inventory was about 321,400 cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 51,200 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port's inventory was about 154,700 cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 52,600 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.0789 million cubic meters, an increase of 35,600 cubic meters compared to the previous week [6][12]. Market Trends - As of September 19, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 805 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.7% from last week. The market showed a narrow - range oscillation, and the fundamental situation maintained a marginal weak supply - demand pattern. The monthly spread changes this week were small [19]. Price and Spread - **Spot Price**: The price of 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/cubic meter compared to last week, while the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged. The prices of other specifications and varieties in different regions showed little change or slight decreases compared to four weeks ago [22]. - **Regional Spread**: The report presents the price spreads of different tree species and specifications between Shandong and Jiangsu, such as the spread of 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine between the two regions [25]. - **Tree Species and Specification Spread**: The report shows the price spreads between different specifications of radiata pine, such as the spread between 3.9 - meter 30+ and 40+ radiata pine [39]. Other - **Freight Index**: As of the week of September 21, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,203.00 points, up 77 points (+3.6%) from last week; the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 815 points, up 1.4% from last week; the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,198.21 points, down 14.3% from last week. - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index fluctuated weakly. The US dollar - to - Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.115, down 0.1% week - on - week, and the US dollar - to - New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 1.7% to 1.707 [54].