不同国家经济政策对外汇市场影响的系统性分析，综合了货币政策、财政政策及外部冲击等，并结合最 新市场动态（截至 2025 年 7 月）： 一、货币政策对外汇的影响机制 1. 利率政策 1、原理：利率上升吸引外资流入，推升本币需求；反之则导致资本外流。 2、案例： 3、美联储 2022 年激进加息，美元指数一年内上涨 15%。 4、日本央行维持负利率，2023 年 USD/JPY 突破 150 关口。 2. 量化宽松（QE）与缩表 1. 扩张性政策（如购债、降准）：增加货币供应，引发本币贬值压力。 2、美联储 2020 年 QE 期间，美元指数下跌 10%，新兴市场资本流入激增。 3、紧缩性政策：推高长期利率，吸引套利资金流入。 4、2025 年美国 "大而美" 法案计划增发 1 万亿美元国债，推升美债收益率，加剧新兴市场资本外流。 二、主要经济体政策的外汇影响对比 1. 美国：全球金融周期主导者 · 政策工具：联邦基金利率、QE / 缩表、前瞻指引。 · 影响路径： · 利率渠道：加息→美元升值（如 2022 年）。 · 风险偏好渠道：紧缩政策推升全球风险溢价，引发避险货币（日元、瑞郎）需求。 · 美元流动性： ...

资金管理也是外汇交易技巧中的重要一环。投资者不应将全部资金集中投入某一笔交易或某一种货币 对。分散投资可以降低单一因素对投资组合造成的影响。可以根据不同货币对的风险收益特征，合理分 配资金，确保在市场出现不利波动时，整体投资组合不至于遭受毁灭性打击。 以上信息由金融界利用AI助手整理发布。金融界作为专业的金融媒体，始终致力于为广大投资者提供 全面、客观、准确的金融信息与知识。通过对各类金融领域知识的梳理与解读，帮助投资者提升金融素 养，更好地理解金融市场的运行机制和交易原理。金融界不断丰富内容形式，借助先进的技术手段，以 更高效、优质的方式将专业信息传递给受众，助力各界人士在金融领域做出更加明智的决策。 免责声明： 本文内容根据公开信息整理生成，不代表发布者及其关联方的官方立场或观点，亦不构成任何形式的投 资建议。请您对文中关键信息进行独立核实，自主决策并承担相应风险。 外汇交易是一个复杂且充满机遇的领域，吸引着众多投资者。要在外汇市场中进行有效的操作，掌握一 些实用的技巧至关重要。 首先，扎实的基础知识是前提。投资者需要深刻理解外汇交易的基本概念，如货币对的构成。不同国家 的货币相互组合形成货币对，汇率的波 ...

Group 1 - The global foreign exchange market is experiencing a shift where macroeconomic data, particularly inflation indicators, are becoming the primary drivers of currency movements, overshadowing political rhetoric such as tariff threats [1] - The recent performance of the US dollar illustrates this data-driven characteristic, as its strength is more attributed to fundamental support like rising US Treasury yields rather than political statements [2] - The Canadian dollar is under multiple pressures, including political uncertainty from US tariff threats and upcoming domestic employment data that may reveal economic weaknesses, leading to potential downward risks [3] Group 2 - The euro is facing a unique challenge as its strength, while enhancing its status as a strategic asset, is also eroding the competitiveness of European exporters amid global demand weakness and new tariff risks [4] - The European Central Bank is in a delicate policy dilemma due to the rapid appreciation of the euro, which has implications for its monetary policy considerations [4][5] - The current foreign exchange market is in a cautious wait-and-see mode, with pricing strategies becoming more precise, and the next major movement will depend on whether inflation data alters Federal Reserve policy expectations [6]

Core Viewpoint - The euro is experiencing fluctuations against the US dollar, with recent developments in trade negotiations and economic indicators influencing its value [2]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Trends - The euro to US dollar exchange rate is currently around 1.1674, down 0.21% from the previous close of 1.1699, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 13% [1]. - Over the past month, the euro has appreciated by 2.18% against the dollar, and by 7.95% over the past year [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Policies - The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered the deposit rate to 2.00% in June and is expected to maintain it this month, with market expectations of a further 25 basis point cut by the end of the year [2]. - In contrast, the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50%, raising inflation expectations for 2025 due to tariffs impacting prices [2]. Group 3: Trade Negotiations and Market Sentiment - Significant progress has been made in EU-US trade negotiations, with a potential framework agreement that may include a 10% baseline tariff and exemptions for key products like Airbus aircraft [2]. - The market is closely monitoring the outcome of these negotiations, as a successful agreement could strengthen the euro further, while uncertainties surrounding tariff policies and global economic fluctuations remain [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The initial resistance level for the euro against the dollar is at 1.1830, with further resistance at 1.1815 and 1.1852 [3]. - Key support levels are identified at 1.1441 (55-day SMA), followed by 1.1210 and 1.1064, with a significant psychological level at 1.1000 [3].

2025年7月11日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价 美元/人民币报7.1475，下调（人民币升值）35点； 欧元/人民币报8.3697，下调313点； 港元/人民币报0.91054，下调4.2点； 英镑/人民币报9.7142，下调209点； 澳元/人民币报4.7156，上调335点； 加元/人民币报5.2391，上调63点； 100日元/人民币报4.8981，下调65点； 人民币/俄罗斯卢布报10.8324，下调550点； 新西兰元/人民币报4.3225，上调227点； 人民币/林吉特报0.59359，上调8.9点； 瑞士法郎/人民币报8.9859，下调426点； 新加坡元/人民币报5.5933，下调21点。 ...

Group 1 - The performance of major markets has diverged significantly in the first half of the year, with the Dow Jones up 3.64%, Nasdaq up 5.48%, and S&P 500 up 5.50%, while the KOSPI index surged 28.04%, DAX index rose 20.09%, Hang Seng index increased by 20.00%, and IBOVESPA index grew by 15.59% [1] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index saw a nearly 14% increase in the first half of the year, marking the best performance for the same period since 2017 [1] - The shift of capital from the US to Europe and Asia is evident, driven by the US government's tariff policies and the resulting uncertainty in the US market [1][3] Group 2 - The US has experienced a "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and currencies, with expectations that this may become a norm due to political and policy uncertainties [2] - The rising US debt and persistent fiscal deficits are undermining market confidence and financial stability, leading to a potential decline in the attractiveness of dollar assets [2][5] - If the US does not effectively manage its debt, the long-term risk of a decline in dollar assets may increase, prompting investors to diversify into other assets [5] Group 3 - The economic growth in Europe and Asia is relatively stable, with declining interest rates attracting more capital, as investors seek value in previously underperforming markets [4] - The capital cycle that traditionally supported US assets is being challenged, leading to accelerated "de-dollarization" among global economies [4][7] - The potential for a financial crisis exists if the US continues to expand its debt, which could disrupt the global financial chain [7] Group 4 - The US dollar index has dropped over 10% in the first half of the year, the largest decline since 1973, attributed to slowing economic growth and rising debt levels [6] - The demand for long-term debt is raising concerns about a "gray rhino" risk, which could lead to a debt crisis affecting global financial markets [7] - Stablecoins are seen as a potential support for US debt, but they come with regulatory and liquidity risks that need to be addressed [8] Group 5 - Hong Kong is positioned as a leading area for stablecoin development, with expectations for enhanced regulatory frameworks and international cooperation [9] - By 2025, global capital is anticipated to continue flowing into emerging markets and digital assets, reshaping the global market landscape [10] - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to interest rate cuts may influence market stability, with potential implications for both US and Asia-Pacific markets [11] Group 6 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance, particularly in technology and renewable energy sectors, with expectations for continued growth [12] - A-share markets are expected to catch up with Hong Kong stocks, driven by government policies aimed at stimulating economic growth and innovation [12]

超配全球股票，看淡美元。 日前，渣打银行财富方案部日前发布了主题为"美元转向，运筹决胜"的《2025年下半年全球市场展望》。 展望指出，从宏观层面来看，全球央行放宽政策、美国经济很大机会软着陆及美元走弱都有利于风险资产，渣 打继续看好全球股票，并将亚洲（除日本）股票上调至超配。 继续看好全球股票 由于美元预计走弱，渣打看好欧元、英镑和日元，以及5-7年期的美元债券，并将新兴市场本币债上调至超 配。此外，美国重新加征关税、通胀和经济数据疲软是主要风险，黄金和另类投资策略作为有吸引力的多元化 投资工具，有助于降低暂时的波动。 渣打银行北亚区首席投资总监郑子丰表示，当前，全球的投资环境仍然充满不确定性。今年以来，"去美元 化"的结构性风险备受关注，美元的走弱促使更多资金流入新兴市场，"我们预计包括中国和韩国在内的亚洲 （除日本）股票市场将表现领先"。 同时，郑子丰提到，在进行资产配置时，建议投资者不仅要考虑资产类别的多样化，还需要有地域的多样化， 通过多元化的资产配置维持长期的卓越回报。 值得注意的是，在美国经济软着陆的基本情境下，渣打仍然认为股票有进一步上行的空间，因此倾向于略微看 好股市多于固定收益。 在固定收 ...

Group 1 - The euro to dollar exchange rate has dropped to around 1.1705, while the pound has risen for the fourth consecutive trading day, surpassing the 1.3700 mark during the European session [1] - The US dollar has regained strength against the yen, breaking through the 147.00 level, and the Australian dollar is fluctuating above 0.6500 [1] - The New Zealand dollar is showing an upward trend, trading around 0.6050, and the US dollar has also strengthened against the Canadian dollar, climbing to approximately 1.3700 [1] Group 2 - President Trump stated that those who challenge the dollar will pay a price, emphasizing the dollar's dominance [2] - Trump also suggested that if Federal Reserve Chairman Powell misleads Congress, he should resign immediately and called for an interest rate cut [3] - According to the Wall Street Journal, National Economic Council Director Hassett is a strong contender for the next Federal Reserve Chairman, having met with Trump in June [3] Group 3 - Fitch Ratings indicated that US stablecoin legislation could address key credit risks and enhance usage [4] - The UK's Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projected that by the early 2070s, UK debt will exceed 270% of GDP [5] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority provided liquidity of 46.7 billion HKD to banks through the discount window [6] - The Bank of Japan's committee member noted that the weighted median inflation remains below 2%, requiring careful examination of inflation stability in Japan's economy [6] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.25%, aligning with market expectations, and indicated potential future rate cuts if mid-term inflation pressures ease [6] - A Reuters survey indicated that all 30 economists surveyed expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower the cash rate to 3.60% in August [6] Group 4 - The Thai Industrial Federation estimated that Thailand's exports have suffered losses of approximately 800 to 900 billion THB due to US tariff measures [7] - The Vietnamese Prime Minister stated that achieving a growth target of at least 8% by 2025 is a significant challenge [8] - The Bank of Thailand's meeting minutes suggested that monetary policy should remain accommodative to support economic development, with a low likelihood of a technical recession [8] Group 5 - Technical analysis for EUR/USD indicates resistance at the 2025 high of 1.1830, with support at the 55-day simple moving average at 1.1428 [9] - For AUD/USD, the Ichimoku Cloud analysis shows the pair testing the baseline, indicating potential short-term downside risk, although the overall trend remains unchanged [9] - GBP/USD is currently contesting the 2022 high of 1.3643, with support from the 21-day simple moving average at 1.3588 [10]

美元刚刚经历了自20世纪70年代初以来最糟糕的上半年表现。而不少业内人士表示，下半年美元的 前景可能也好不到哪里去…… 在2025年的前六个月，ICE美元指数累计下跌了近11%，这是自1973年尼克松时代以来该指 数在历年上半年的最大跌幅。 而1973年也正是布雷顿森林体系最终彻底崩溃的一年，西方国 家在当时放弃了固定汇率制，转而实行浮动汇率制。 事实上，过去十年间，美元也曾经历过其他疲弱期，但正如下图所示，没有哪一次像过去六个 月时间里发生的那样严重。 这一次，风向似乎正在彻底转变，且对美元不利。如今，华尔街很少有人预期美元在未来一年 左右时间会走强。有些人甚至认为这可能是美元长期贬值周期的开始。美元汇率的持续下跌， 也正开始使其作为全球顶级避险资产的地位，受到愈发尖锐的质疑。 对此， 杰富瑞集团全球外汇主管Brad Bechtel表示，"我认为美元的整体趋势仍将走低。" 外汇对冲需求 Bechtel和其他一些业内人士盘点了美元目前面临的三大利空： 通常，这些以本国货币计算回报但投资于以其他货币计价资产的投资者，会使用远期等衍生品 合约来对冲货币风险。多年来，随着美国股市和美元持续攀升，持有美股和美债的外国 ...

周二欧元走势总体呈现上涨的状态，当日欧元/美元最低下跌至1.1682位置，最高上涨至1.1765位置，收 盘于1.1724位置。回顾周二欧美市场表现，早盘期间价格先向上修正测试到四小时阻力附近后再度承 压，价格向下测试到日线支撑后止步，最终当天大阳收尾，针对后续需要关注日线分水岭位置得失。 从多周期分析，从月线级别来看，欧元受撑于1.0950位置，所以长线多头对待，月线大阳收尾，则长线 上依旧偏多。从周线级别看欧元对美元汇率受撑于1.1450区域的支撑，从中线的角度持续看多，价格下 跌暂时作为中线上涨中的修正对待。从日线级别，伴随着时间的推移暂时需要重点关注1.1700及昨日低 点区间分水岭，此位置之上暂时波段多对待，但是需要关注后续震荡后能否进一步下破是关键。从四小 时级别看暂时需要关注1.1730位置及上方趋势线1.1760-70区间阻力。从一小时级别看，考虑到目前价格 测试到日线支撑后反弹，后续暂时关注趋势线阻力压制，后续再关注能否进一步下破日线支撑是关键。 根据纽约联储周二发布的月度调查数据，消费者对未来通胀的预期已回落至今年年初、即特朗普政府宣 布大规模新关税之前的水平。美国家庭对劳动力市场的看法传 ...