Group 1 - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the importance of promoting a stable, healthy, and high-quality development of the real estate market, urging local governments to take responsibility and implement precise policies tailored to individual cities [1] - There has been a noticeable acceleration in debt restructuring among real estate companies, with significant breakthroughs achieved recently, leading to a collective rise in real estate stocks in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1] - As of July 10, the A-share real estate sector saw stocks like China Fortune Land Development and Greenland Holdings hit the daily limit, while in Hong Kong, Longfor Group's stock surged over 80% during the day [1] Group 2 - The construction materials sector experienced a significant rise, attributed to improved macroeconomic expectations and anticipated policy support for urban renewal, alongside a favorable performance in the building materials industry's fundamentals [2] - The inventory of rebar continues to decline despite the seasonal demand lull, indicating a better-than-expected performance in the building materials sector [2] - As of July 10, the total inventory of glass production enterprises in key monitored provinces decreased by 1.66%, with a consumption rate exceeding production, indicating a positive trend in the glass market [3] Group 3 - The market anticipates continued policy support and potential production restrictions in northern factories, suggesting that black series futures and glass prices may continue to rebound until mid-August [4] - Post the rainy season, demand for glass is expected to improve, stabilizing market sentiment and potentially resonating with the industry's "anti-involution" trend [4]

房地产及建材行业 房地产-标配（维持） 建材材料-标配（维持） 2025 年 07 月 4 日 分析师：何敏仪 S0340513040001 电话：0769-22177163 邮箱：hmy@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源：iFind，东莞证券研究所 证 券 研 究 报 资料来源：iFind，东莞证券研究所 房地产及建材行业双周报（2025/06/20-2025/07/03） 行 业 双 周 二手房延续"以价换量"行情 销售回暖持续性仍需观察 投资要点： SAC 执业证书编号： 房地产周观点：根据中指院数据，6月百城二手住宅均价环比下跌0.75%， 同比下跌7.26%，当前多数城市二手房市场延续"以价换量"行情。百 城新建住宅均价受部分城市优质改善项目入市带动，环比上涨0.19%， 同比上涨2.59%。而根据媒体报道，北京、深圳等一线城市二手房成交 量同比涨幅明显。北京商报：1至6月，北京二手房网签量同比增长20.4%。 深圳中原研究中心：上半年，深圳一手住宅网签同比增长24.4%；二手 住宅过户同比增36.6%；上半年二手房同比增30.7%。高能级城市销售以 价换量促进成交明显。房企融资方面，上证报消息，房 ...

长江大宗 2025年7月金股推荐 长江证券研究所周期组 1 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 2025-06-29 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com SAC执业证书编号：S0490520080009 SAC执业证书编号：S0490517080003 SAC执业证书编号：S0490520080022 SAC执业证书编号：S0490516080003 SFC执业证书编号：BUT964 SFC执业证书编号：BQT627 SFC执业证书编号：BUT917 SFC执业证书编号：BUT918 分析师 魏凯 分析师 张韦华 分析师 张弛 分析师 肖勇 分析师及联系人 分析师 王鹤涛 分析师 范超 分析师 韩轶超 分析师 马太 SAC执业证书编号：S0490512070002 SAC执业证书编号：S0490513080001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490512020001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490516100002 SFC执业证书编号：BQT626 SFC执业证书编号：BQK473 SFC执业证书编号：BQK468 SFC执业证书编号：BUT911 %% %% %% %% researc ...

亲商暖企、安商助企、尊商重企，这是四川省成都市武侯区一以贯之发展民营经济的态度。作为重要组 成部分，武侯区簇锦街道紧扣"立园满园"目标，以创新服务、深化改革为抓手，推动招商引资提质增 效。截至2025年5月底，辖区落地市级重大产业化项目3个，新增企业800余家，共同为区域产业升级注 入强劲动力。 "没想到我们的难题在武侯区2个月就解决了。"乐车汽车超市负责人感叹道。这家由腾讯与腾易科技在 国内率先打造的汽车新零售平台，曾因工业用地属性、租金等问题受阻。今年3月落户武侯区，簇锦街 道主动作为，牵头联合5个部门修改7版材料，将签约开业周期从5个月压缩至2个月。开业后，街道协调 相关部门，协助办理招牌审批、申请开票额度调整，并宣传购车补贴政策。平台负责人直言："武侯区 服务是企业发展的'加速器'。" "绿色通道"提速企业注册 ·广告 "走访时得知东方雨虹建材科技有限公司计划布局西南总部，我们立刻行动。"簇锦街道投资促进办公室 负责人说道。面对营收超328亿元的行业龙头企业，街道在今年3月启动"绿色通道"，协调容缺受理、并 联审批，日夜跟进材料审核，提交资料当天就拿到了营业执照，助力东方雨虹建材科技有限公司成功登 记 ...

操作上： 品种基本面分析及行情研判： | 品种 | 观点及操作建议 | 方向研判 | 分析师 | 联系人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 陆家嘴论坛开幕提振政策预期 海外地缘政治扰动尚未平息，但 A 股已反弹企稳，展现出韧 | | 投资咨询部 | | | | 周二 A 股窄幅震荡，沪深两市成交额维持在 1.24（前值 1.24） | | | | | | 万亿元左右。从行业来看，金融、煤炭等红利板块收涨，医药、传 | | | | | | 媒行业跌幅居前。股指期货随现货窄幅整理，IH、IM 收涨，IF、IC | | | | | | 收跌，各期指基差进一步走强，IC、IM 当月合约基差基本收敛。 | | 张舒绮 | 联系人：房紫薇 | | | | | 从业资格： | 021-80220135 | | | | 震荡偏强 | | | | | 性，但当前基本面暂无新增利好，市场仍处于存量博弈状态，主题 | | F3037345 | 从业资格： | | | 轮动仍将持续。政策方面，2025 年陆家嘴论坛将于今日开幕，在 | | 投资咨询： | F03121473 | | | ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 我们认为，广州市于2024年9月已实质放开居民家庭在本市购买住房的各项限购政策；此次提及更多是对已有 政策的进一步明确，向市场传递宽松的积极信号。此外，关于加快推进城中村改造将有利于带动更多购房需求 的释放，以及推进利用专项借款购买存量商品房作为安置房，或将助力地产进一步去库。 本周市场重要数据跟踪： 国务院总理李强6月13日主持召开国务院常务会议，会议指出：构建房地产发展新模式，对于促进房地产市场 平稳、健康、高质量发展具有重要意义，要着眼长远，坚持稳中求进、先立后破，有序搭建相关基础性制度。 要扎实有力推进"好房子"建设，纳入城市更新机制加强工作统筹，在规划、土地、财政、金融等方面予以政策 支持。要对全国房地产已供土地和在 ...

证券代码： 证券简称： 汇丽B 公告编号： 临2025-027 上海汇丽建材股份有限公司 关于与控股股东上海汇丽集团有限公司 转让相关股权暨关联交易完成的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 上海汇丽建材股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第十届董事会第十二次会 议及2024年年度股东大会审议通过了《公司关于与控股股东上海汇丽集团有限公 司（以下简称"汇丽集团"）转让相关股权暨关联交易的议案》，即公司向汇丽 集团出让持有的上海汇丽涂料有限公司（以下简称"汇丽涂料公司"）37.50% 的股权，同时汇丽集团以其持有的上海中远汇丽建材有限公司（以下简称"中远 汇丽公司"）10%的股权作为其受让汇丽涂料公司37.50%股权的部分交易对价、 并通过现金方式向公司支付剩余的转让价款。本次关联交易的具体内容及决策程 序详见公司于2025年4月19日及5月13日在上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn） 及 指 定 媒 体 上 披露 的 相 关 公 告 （ 公告 编 号 ： 临 2025-009 、 临 2025-010 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The allocation value of stock indices continues to increase, with a clear upward trend in the long - term. It is recommended to buy IF and IM far - month contracts on dips [1]. - The intention to protect liquidity in the bond market is clear, and the expectation of the bond market has slightly improved, but it is difficult to form a trend - based market [1]. - For precious metals, the short - term gold price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - to - long - term price center will rise. It is advisable to buy on dips or hold short out - of - the - money put options. Silver has a high probability of upward valuation repair [4]. - For base metals, copper, aluminum, and nickel prices are expected to be range - bound, while alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile [4]. - For energy and chemical products, crude oil prices have limited upside potential and will maintain high volatility; methanol and polyolefin prices are expected to decline [10]. - For building materials, the prices of soda ash and glass are expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions [8]. - For steel and coal, the prices of steel products, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are expected to be volatile, with a weakening trend [5][8]. - For agricultural products, cotton prices are expected to be range - bound, and rubber prices are expected to be weakly volatile [10]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Indices - Last week, the A - share market was strong, with communication and non - ferrous metals leading the gains, and home appliances and automobiles leading the losses. The trading volume on Friday decreased slightly to 1.18 trillion yuan. - In June, the A - share market started well, with technology stocks driving market sentiment and slightly boosting trading volume. - Overseas macro uncertainties have reduced global economic growth expectations, but Chinese assets have attracted the attention of foreign institutions. - The upward trend of stock indices is clear, but short - term breakthroughs require an increase in trading volume. It is recommended to buy IF and IM far - month contracts on dips [1]. Bonds - The central bank's intention to protect the market is clear, and the early announcement of repurchase operations has boosted market confidence. - Last Friday, bond futures closed higher. After the China - US call, China - US economic and trade consultations will be held in London. - The macro situation is uncertain, and the bond market is difficult to form a trend - based market. Short - term market conditions are mainly affected by liquidity [1]. Precious Metals - Gold: The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - to - long - term price center will rise. It is advisable to buy on dips or hold short out - of - the money put options. - Silver: The gold - silver ratio is high, and the valuation of silver is low. If the gold price remains strong, the probability of upward valuation repair of silver increases. It is advisable to hold short out - of - the money put options [4]. Base Metals Copper - Last week, copper prices fluctuated within a range. Macro uncertainties remain high, and the supply of copper ore is still tight. - The demand is affected by macro uncertainties and the domestic consumption off - season. - LME inventories are decreasing, while COMEX and SHFE inventories are increasing. Copper prices are expected to remain range - bound [4]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina: The supply is uncertain, but the short - term impact is weakening. The resumption of production is expected to increase supply pressure, and prices may continue to run close to the cost line. - Aluminum: The supply is constrained, with support at the bottom, but the demand policy is uncertain, and the directional driving force is limited [4]. Nickel - The supply of nickel ore is gradually recovering, and the supply of refined nickel is in excess. The demand from the stainless steel and new energy sectors is weak. - The price of nickel is expected to remain range - bound, and it is advisable to hold short call options [4]. Energy and Chemical Products Crude Oil - The US non - farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, and geopolitical disturbances continue. The number of US oil rigs has decreased significantly. - The demand for gasoline and diesel in the US is lower than expected. Oil prices have limited upside potential and will maintain high volatility [10]. Methanol - Overseas methanol plant operating rates have increased, and the price of thermal coal is stable. - Affected by positive factors such as the recovery of olefin plant demand and China - US talks, methanol futures prices have rebounded, but further upside is limited [10]. Polyolefins - The production of polyolefins has increased slightly, and more production capacity is expected to resume this week. - Downstream industries are entering the off - season, and the operating rate is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long the L - PP spread [10]. Building Materials Soda Ash - The production of soda ash is expected to increase in June, while demand is weak. The supply is relatively loose, and inventory is high. - It is recommended to hold short positions in the SA509 contract and go short on rebounds near the cash cost line [2][8]. Glass - The glass market has entered the off - season, with weak demand and high inventory. - It is recommended to hold short positions in the FG509 contract and consider long - short spread strategies [8]. Steel and Coal Steel Products - The spot prices of steel products are weak, and demand has entered the off - season. - The results of the China - US trade negotiations will affect market sentiment. It is recommended to hold short call options for rebar and short positions for hot - rolled coils [5][8]. Iron Ore - The static supply - demand structure of imported iron ore is healthy, but the supply is expected to increase seasonally, and demand may decline. - It is recommended to hold the 9 - 1 positive spread combination or short the I2601 contract with a stop - loss [5][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - The supply of coking coal is in excess, and the price rebound is not sustainable. - The demand for coke is weak, and the price is under pressure [8]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The weather in the Xinjiang cotton - producing area is normal, and downstream demand is gradually recovering. - It is advisable to hold positions patiently and wait for a breakthrough in the price range [10]. Rubber - The supply of rubber is increasing, while demand is decreasing. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [10].

（本文节选自半夏宏观对冲基金2025年5月报） 前些天，一位老投资人给我发了一条微信： "蓓总好！现在净值和 924 相差不大， 8 个月过去了，我们应该是错过了什么，或者做错了 什么。记得您说过 22 年的回调源于执念，现在的坚持是否也是执念呢？当然您历史业绩优 异，也是赢在了坚持。牛市来之不易，别错过了难得的机会。供参考。" 这位先生是一家券商的高管，主管自营业务， 2019 年他主导所在券商自营资金投资了半 夏，是我最早的 3 家机构投资人之一。这位先生本人也是半夏的投资人。他一直是我尊重和 感谢的投资人。 当天我给了一个不长不短的答案。现在我想更加系统认真的回答一下这些问题，也是阶段性 必要的对自己的梳理。 关于我错过了什么和做错了什么，表面上：做一下归因分析，对比大类资产持仓和表现，答 案很简单： 我错过了小微盘，错过了新消费，科技和创新药，所以权益类的涨幅比较平庸。 （ 给我留言 的投资人之所以感受是牛市，大概率就是持有这些品类，因为如果看沪深 300 ，其实比较平淡。 ） 我错误做多了工业商品，结果现在工业品比 924 创了新低还跌了不少。所幸 3 月后工业品净 多已经大幅减仓，所以受伤不大。 ...

Group 1 - The core idea of the news is that Dongfang Yuhong is launching the 2025 "Safety and Environmental Month" initiative to enhance employee safety awareness and improve safety and environmental management capabilities in its manufacturing plants [1][5] - The initiative includes activities such as "Five Ones" promotion, special inspections, emergency drills, safety and environmental risk identification, and sustainable development theme activities [1] - On June 5, Dongfang Yuhong held an "Environmental Open Day" in response to the theme "Beautiful China, I Go First," engaging students in interactive activities to promote green development concepts [1] Group 2 - The company has established a "system + technology + management" three-dimensional environmental protection system, which includes forming a special working group to improve management systems, investing in pollution treatment equipment upgrades, and implementing dual systems for environmental and energy management [5] - Dongfang Yuhong's full-chain model of "source reduction - process control - end treatment" provides a replicable practice sample for the green transformation of the building materials industry [5] - The environmental activities at the Yueyang factory not only reflect Dongfang Yuhong's commitment to sustainable development over the past thirty years but also aim to foster social consensus on green and low-carbon initiatives [5]