Group 1: Zijin Mining (601899.SH) - The core conclusion highlights the advancement of the three-wheel drive of gold, copper, and lithium, strengthening both anti-cyclical attributes and growth potential [1] - In 2025, Zijin Mining achieved a revenue of 349.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 51.78 billion yuan, up 61.55% [6] - Gold production reached 90 tons, a 22.8% increase, contributing 40.89% to the group's gross profit, with significant growth driven by acquisitions and project improvements [6][7] - Copper production was 1.09 million tons, a 1.56% increase, contributing 34.49% to gross profit, with a target of 1.5-1.6 million tons by 2028 [7] - Lithium carbonate production reached 25,500 tons, with a projected increase to 120,000 tons in 2026, representing a 370% growth [7] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2026-2028 are projected at 3.12, 3.65, and 4.06 yuan, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 10, 8, and 8 times respectively [6] Group 2: Li Auto (2015.HK) - The report indicates that Li Auto's revenue for 2025 was 112.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 22% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.14 billion yuan, down 86% [9] - In Q4 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 28.8 billion yuan, with a vehicle gross margin of 16.8%, slightly above expectations due to supplier rebates [9][10] - The launch of the new L9 model and advancements in embodied intelligence products are expected to drive a new growth cycle for the company [10] - The company plans to deliver 85,000 to 90,000 vehicles in Q1 2026, with a revenue forecast of 20.4 to 21.6 billion yuan [10] - Revenue projections for 2026-2028 are 131.2 billion, 169.2 billion, and 195.7 billion yuan, with net profits of 1.2 billion, 5.1 billion, and 9.1 billion yuan respectively [11] Group 3: China Hongqiao (01378.HK) - China Hongqiao reported a revenue of 162.35 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.96%, with a net profit of 22.64 billion yuan, up 1.18% [14][15] - The company’s operating cash flow was particularly strong, with a growth of 14.75%, indicating improved financial health [15] - The aluminum alloy segment maintained sales of 5.824 million tons, with a revenue of 106.1 billion yuan, while alumina sales increased by 22.7% to 13.397 million tons [16] - EPS for 2026-2028 is expected to be 3.24, 3.50, and 3.78 yuan, with PE ratios of 9, 9, and 8 times respectively [16] Group 4: North Exchange Market - The North Exchange market is currently under pressure, with a significant decline in the core index, reaching a 10-month low, and liquidity continues to shrink [4][20] - The report notes that the market is at a dual bottom in terms of sentiment and liquidity, with a need to be cautious about ongoing liquidity issues and external geopolitical disturbances [4] - Long-term investment value is expected to gradually emerge as the market expands and institutional improvements continue, particularly for specialized and innovative enterprises [4][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical conflicts and a hawkish Fed stance have led to a significant decline in the non - ferrous metals sector on March 19, with short - term market risk appetite difficult to repair, and the overall non - ferrous metals market in a state of shock and pressure [3][11] - Medium - term attention should be paid to the duration of the US - Iran war and oil price trends [11] - Aluminum prices are expected to continue a shock - strengthening trend, and nickel prices have strengthened bottom support, suggesting waiting for price stabilization before considering low - buying opportunities [11] Summary by Variety Copper - Short - term: Affected by geopolitical conflicts and a hawkish Fed, the market is pessimistic, and copper prices are expected to be weak. Long - term: The supply - demand tension remains unchanged, and low - buying opportunities can be considered after the price stabilizes [4] Alumina - Short - term: Cost support has increased, and the fundamentals have slightly improved. Medium - long - term: Guinea's policies and sea freight will affect prices, and the supply may increase, with the price showing a slight upward trend while fluctuating [5] Aluminum - Short - term: Pessimistic macro - sentiment, expected to maintain high - level shock. Medium - term: Supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the price center may move up. Low - buying opportunities can be considered [5] Aluminum Alloy - Driven by aluminum prices, with stable supply - demand and cost support, it is expected to follow aluminum prices, and low - buying opportunities can be considered [6] Zinc - Short - term: Pessimistic macro - situation, prices are weak. Medium - term: Global zinc ore increment is small, and overseas supply - demand is expected to be tight. After the price drops, downstream procurement demand improves, and spot procurement opportunities can be considered after price stabilization [7] Lead - Short - term: Scrap battery prices provide bottom support. Medium - term: Supply in China and overseas is in surplus, and prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level around the cost of recycled lead [7] Nickel - Supply pressure has slightly increased, and the bottom support is strengthening. It is expected to be shock - strengthening, but short - term fluctuations are large. Low - buying opportunities can be considered after price stabilization [7] Stainless Steel - Cost support exists, and production is expected to increase. It is expected to be shock - strengthening in the medium - term, but short - term fluctuations are large. Low - buying opportunities can be considered after price stabilization [8] Tin - Short - term: Pressured by macro - sentiment and supply recovery expectations. Medium - long - term: Supply risks exist, and demand is expected to increase, with prices expected to be in a shock - positive state [8] Industrial Silicon - Short - term: May fluctuate at a low valuation. Medium - long - term: In a loose supply - demand situation, prices are under pressure. Upstream can hedge at high prices, and investors can consider short - selling at high prices [9] Polysilicon - Short - term: Pressured by market sentiment and high inventory, prices may continue to compete around the cost area. Medium - term: "Anti - involution" policies need to be monitored, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, with prices in a wide - range shock pattern. The anti - arbitrage strategy between the 05 contract and far - month contracts can be continued [10] Lithium Carbonate - Short - term: Trading on macro - issues and weak demand expectations, prices are under shock pressure. Medium - long - term: Supply problems may drive prices up after May [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ongoing US-Iran conflict may enter an irreversible escalation phase, strengthening the upward support for international oil prices. This underlying risk determines the hawkish stance of the Fed's March FOMC meeting, leading to a shift in the market's trading focus to inflation stickiness and policy tightening risks [2]. - In the short term, the upward rigidity of oil prices may continue, putting pressure on the earnings and valuations of US stocks. Gold is unlikely to have a trend - like market in the short term, and its safe - haven property needs a substantial improvement in interest rate cut expectations. The yield of US Treasuries has limited room for further upward movement, and the US dollar still has safe - haven value in short - term risk events [2][3]. - The core variables in the subsequent market are the evolution rhythm of the Middle East conflict and the marginal changes in US inflation and employment data [3]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: The central bank is committed to maintaining the stability of financial markets. Fiscal revenue in the first two months of 2026 showed a slight increase, and the stamp duty on securities transactions increased significantly. Central banks around the world mostly maintained interest rates unchanged, with some releasing hawkish signals. The energy situation is tense, and the Iran situation has escalated [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: Most central banks maintained interest rates unchanged and released hawkish signals, causing the US dollar index to decline passively. China's economic fundamentals are steadily recovering, and policy support lays a foundation for the moderate appreciation of the RMB. Short - term strategies are provided for export and import enterprises [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The Fed's interest rate decision and the situation in the Middle East have put pressure on A - shares. In the short term, the market may continue to adjust, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [4][6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, the trading logic of the bond market has shifted from inflation concerns to risk aversion. With the easing of the situation, the risk - aversion sentiment may weaken, and the futures bonds are expected to decline [7]. - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: The market is in a state of intense game between geopolitical risks and off - season fundamentals. The futures price is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern in the short term [9][10][11]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate futures fell, and the spot market price of the lithium - battery industry chain weakened. Affected by the overall correction of the non - ferrous metal sector, lithium carbonate showed a downward trend [12]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The main contracts of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures declined. The spot market of the industrial silicon and photovoltaic industries showed a weakening trend. Affected by the non - ferrous metal sector, they oscillated and declined [12][13]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The price of aluminum dropped due to concerns about inflation and the impact of the war situation. The fundamentals of alumina are mixed, and the casting aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to aluminum. All are expected to be in a state of shock and consolidation [16][17]. - **Copper**: The copper price dropped significantly due to multiple negative factors at the macro level and specific contradictions in the fundamentals. It is recommended to pay attention to the upper pressure when the price rebounds [17][18][20]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price was suppressed by macro factors during the day and rebounded at night. The supply side is under pressure, and the demand side is delayed. The zinc price is expected to be weak in the short term [20]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel dropped during the day and recovered at night. The fundamentals are in a state of intense game, and the price trend needs to pay attention to multiple factors [21]. - **Tin**: The tin price is weak in the short term and is expected to move upward in the long term [22]. - **Lead**: The lead price is expected to oscillate and gradually bottom out [22]. Oils and Fats and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The external market stopped falling, and the domestic market followed the rebound. The short - term price is supported by the slow shipment in Brazil, but the medium - term supply is still abundant. The rapeseed meal has regained cost - effectiveness [24]. - **Oils**: The oil market is in a state of shock, lacking new driving factors. The market is concerned about the development of the Iran situation and the change of crude oil prices [25]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **SC**: The oil price is affected by multiple factors, with short - term upward driving factors and high volatility. Risk management should be done [27][28]. - **Fuel Oil**: The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is tightened, and the market structure is strong. The high - sulfur fuel oil is still at a high level. The overall pattern of Asian fuel oil is difficult to change in the short term [29]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt is affected by geopolitical factors. The supply is reduced, and the demand is weak. The price may fluctuate greatly, and investors should pay attention to position control [30]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The prices of platinum and palladium continued to decline under pressure. The market is in a state of stagflation panic, and it is recommended to be strategically bullish on precious metals in the medium - term [31][32]. - **Gold and Silver**: The prices of gold and silver dropped significantly. The market is concerned about the Middle East conflict, inflation, and the Fed's interest rate policy. It is also recommended to be strategically bullish on precious metals in the medium - term [32][33][34]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The spot price of pulp rebounded, and the port inventory decreased. The price of offset paper futures was driven by the cost of pulp. For pulp futures, it is recommended to shift from a high - short strategy to a light - long strategy; for offset paper, the range - shock strategy continues [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene follow the cost side. The market is concerned about the closure time of the Strait of Hormuz and the supply reduction. They are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [37][38][39]. - **LPG**: The price of LPG is affected by geopolitical risks, and the risk premium is rising. It is not recommended to short against the trend. Options strategies can be considered [41]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol fluctuates greatly, mainly affected by the US - Iran situation. The MTO profit has expanded, and the 5 - 9 spread can be in a positive set [42][43]. - **PP and Propylene**: The prices of PP and propylene are expected to maintain a shock - strong trend. The supply of PP is supported, and the supply of propylene is expected to be tightened [45]. - **Plastic**: The price of plastic is expected to maintain a high - level shock. The supply is reduced, but the demand is suppressed. It is necessary to pay attention to the Middle East situation and the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz [46][47]. - **Rubber**: The price of rubber is affected by macro and geopolitical factors. Synthetic rubber may maintain a strong wide - range shock, and natural rubber is expected to gradually stabilize with macro - sentiment fluctuations [51][53][54]. - **Urea**: The US - Iran war has a significant impact on the urea market, which may drive up the price by international cost and domestic sentiment [55]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash is under pressure, and the inventory is better than expected. The cold - repair expectation of glass continues, and the high inventory in the middle reaches restricts the price increase [56][57]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices of coke and iron ore are supported by the Iran situation, which in turn supports the steel price. However, the high inventory of hot - rolled coils restricts the upward space of the price. The steel price may rebound in the short term, but the rebound height is limited [58][59]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price is strong in the short term, but the supply - demand pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. It is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices [60]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to oscillate weakly. The supply pressure is not large, and the demand is supported to a certain extent, but the upward space is limited [60][61]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Pig**: The futures price of pigs continued to drop, and the slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises increased slightly, but the demand was weak [63]. - **Cotton**: The issuance of cotton import quotas has a limited impact on the domestic market. The supply - demand situation is expected to be tight, and the cotton price has support. It is necessary to pay attention to the support at 15,000 [65][66]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price may maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term due to the tense Middle East situation and cautious market sentiment [67]. - **Egg**: The egg market is in a game between sufficient supply and warming demand. The egg price may be weak and stable in the short term and show an upward trend in the long term [68][69]. - **Apple**: The apple futures are strongly supported by the shortage of delivery products, and the 05 contract is expected to maintain a strong oscillating pattern [76][77]. - **Red Date**: The red date market is in a state of oversupply, and the price may oscillate at a low level [77][78]. - **Log**: The inventory of logs has decreased, and the price has some support. The market is expected to return to neutral, and short - term interval trading and long - term low - buying opportunities can be considered [79][80].

Group 1 - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued a regulatory letter to Chongqing Shunbo Aluminum Alloy Co., Ltd. and its executives due to violations identified in the company's financial reporting for 2024 [1] - The company was found to have issues with revenue recognition, inventory impairment measurement, and insufficient provision for bad debts, leading to inaccurate financial disclosures [1] - The actions of the company's chairman, president, and CFO were deemed to have failed in their duties, resulting in primary responsibility for the violations [1] Group 2 - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange emphasized the importance of compliance with laws and regulations, urging the company and its executives to adhere strictly to disclosure obligations to prevent future incidents [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Short - term prices fluctuate greatly due to market sentiment, and cautious participation is recommended. Supply: Myanmar's tin ore imports increased significantly in November, and Indonesia's approved export quota for 2026 is about 60,000 tons. Demand: Tin solder enterprises in South China show certain resilience, while those in East China are more restricted [1]. Industrial Silicon - The industry is expected to continue the pattern of weak supply and demand. The decline in production is gradually being implemented. Pay attention to the change in polysilicon production and the lower support. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range likely to be between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [3]. Polysilicon - The spot price is stable, and the futures are weakly volatile. There is support at the 48,000 yuan/ton level. The market has a certain bottom - support as silicon wafer and polysilicon supply and demand are basically matched. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to production cuts and downstream demand recovery [4]. Copper - The medium - and long - term fundamentals are good, and the bottom center is gradually rising. In the short term, the price remains high due to the global inventory imbalance and supply concerns. Pay attention to the change in CL premium, LME inventory, and the 99,000 - 100,000 support [7]. Zinc - The LME's suspension of zinc ingot delivery from Korea Zinc led to a supply - tightening expectation. The price is supported by the tight ore supply, but there is also pressure from imported ore supply and weak demand. Pay attention to zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes, and the 24,000 support [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The market showed a high - level correction. The cost is the main driving factor, but the fundamentals are in a weak supply - demand pattern. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, with the reference range of 22,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton [11]. Aluminum - The price is driven by macro and policy expectations, but the fundamentals are under pressure. It is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock, with the reference range of 23,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to inventory accumulation, downstream consumption, and overseas events [12]. Nickel - The market is affected by Indonesia's nickel ore policy adjustment and geopolitical factors. The short - term is expected to be strongly volatile, with the main center reference range of 140,000 - 152,000 yuan [13]. Stainless Steel - The market is driven by raw material nickel. The supply pressure eases slightly, and the cost support is strengthened, but the demand is weak. It is expected to be strongly volatile, with the reference range of 13,800 - 14,500 yuan [15][16]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures are in shock adjustment. The production is slightly increasing, and the demand has certain resilience. The short - term is expected to be in a wide - range shock, with the reference range of 155,000 - 165,000 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and pay attention to positive spread opportunities [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Spot Price and Basis - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin rose 5.06% to 426,000 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium decreased 12.50% to 700 yuan/ton [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The prices of various grades of industrial silicon remained stable, and the basis of some varieties changed [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The average price of N - type materials was stable, and the basis of N - type materials increased 4.74% [4]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased 1.29% to 102,575 yuan/ton, and the premium increased [7]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot rose 3.42% to 25,410 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM ADC12 decreased 0.83% to 24,000 yuan/ton, and the scrap - to - refined spread of some varieties changed [11]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum decreased 1.95% to 24,190 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased [12]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose 2.46% to 150,050 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The prices of 304/2B coils in Wuxi and Foshan rose, and the basis increased [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased 2.45% to 159,000 yuan/ton, and the basis changed [17]. Inter - month Spread - **Tin**: The spreads of 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604, etc. changed, with some spreads decreasing and some increasing [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spreads of the main contract and other contracts changed, with some spreads increasing and some decreasing [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The spreads of contracts such as the main contract, near - month - to - first - continuous, etc. changed significantly [4]. - **Copper**: The spreads of 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604, etc. changed [7]. - **Zinc**: The spreads of 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604, etc. changed [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spreads of 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604, etc. changed [11]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads of AL 2602 - 2603, AL 2603 - 2604, etc. changed [12]. - **Nickel**: The spreads of 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604, etc. changed [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spreads of 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604, etc. changed [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spreads of 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604, etc. changed [17]. Fundamental Data - **Tin**: In November, tin ore imports increased 29.81%, and in December, SMM refined tin production decreased 0.06%. The开工率 of some sectors changed [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In December, the national industrial silicon production decreased 1.15%, and the开工 rates of different regions changed. The production of related downstream products and export volume also changed [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The weekly and monthly production, import, and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed, and the inventory also changed [4]. - **Copper**: In December, electrolytic copper production increased 6.80%, and in November, the import volume decreased 3.90%. The开工 rate of copper rod production and inventory changed [7]. - **Zinc**: In December, refined zinc production decreased 7.24%, and in November, the import volume decreased 3.22%. The开工 rates of related sectors and inventory changed [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In December, the production of regenerated and primary aluminum alloy ingots changed, and the开工 rates of different - sized enterprises and inventory changed [11]. - **Aluminum**: In December, the production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased, and the import and export volumes of electrolytic aluminum changed. The开工 rates of related sectors and inventory changed [12]. - **Nickel**: In December, China's refined nickel production decreased 9.38%, and the import volume increased 30.08%. The inventory changed [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: In December, the production of 300 - series stainless steel in China and Indonesia changed, and the import, export, and inventory changed [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In December, the production and demand of lithium carbonate changed, and the import, export, and inventory changed [17]. Inventory Change - **Tin**: SHEF inventory decreased 12.61%, social inventory decreased 12.23%, and SHEF warehouse receipts increased 34.04% [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Social inventory increased 0.54%, and warehouse receipt inventory was basically stable [3]. - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon inventory increased 6.29%, and silicon wafer inventory decreased 5.53% [4]. - **Copper**: Domestic social inventory increased 17.20%, and SHFE inventory increased 24.22% [7]. - **Zinc**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased 0.08%, and LME inventory was basically stable [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The weekly social inventory of regenerated aluminum alloy decreased 1.41%, and the daily inventory of some regions changed [11]. - **Aluminum**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased, and LME inventory decreased 0.41% [12]. - **Nickel**: SHFE inventory increased 2.43%, social inventory increased 3.61%, and LME inventory increased 0.22% [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The 300 - series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan decreased 1.47%, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased 0.89% [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased 12.23%, and the upstream and downstream inventories changed [17].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - No core view provided in the report Group 3: Summary by Metal Gold - On January 14, 2026, the closing price of SHFE gold's main contract was 1040.62 yuan/gram, the near - month contract was 1036.60 yuan/gram; COMEX gold's main contract was 471.00 dollars/ounce, the near - month contract was - 24.90 dollars/ounce; the London gold spot price was 276.25 dollars/ounce, and the SGE gold spot price was 25.65 yuan/gram [1] - The domestic basis (Gold T + D - main contract) was - 1.35 yuan/gram, and the overseas basis (LBMA gold spot - COMEX AU01) was 28.65 dollars/ounce [1] Silver - On January 14, 2026, the closing price of SHFE silver's main contract was 22763 yuan/kilogram, the near - month contract was 22906 yuan/kilogram; COMEX silver's main contract was 22.73 dollars/ounce, the near - month contract was 2.16 dollars/ounce; the London silver spot price was 1.75 dollars/ounce, and the SGE silver spot price was 1.553 yuan/kilogram [1] - The domestic basis (AG(T + D) - main contract) was 106 yuan/gram, and the overseas basis (LBMA silver spot - COMEX AG01) was 1.70 dollars/ounce [1] Copper - On January 14, 2026, the closing price of SHFE copper's main contract was 104120 yuan/ton, the continuous contract was 280 yuan/ton; the main contract of international copper was 9.930 yuan/ton, the continuous contract was 90760 yuan/ton; LME copper 3M was 173.00 dollars/ton, and COMEX copper's main contract was 0.15 dollars/pound [1] - The SHFE copper monthly spread (CU00 - CU01) was - 220 yuan/ton, the international copper monthly spread (BC00 - BC01) was - 1.580 yuan/ton, and the LME copper 0 - 3 spread was 90.23 dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE copper warehouse receipt inventory was 149339 tons, the international copper was 3223 tons, the LME copper was 141550 tons, and the COMEX copper was 78879 short tons [1] Aluminum and Alumina - On January 14, 2026, the closing price of SHFE aluminum's main contract was 24595 yuan/ton, the continuous contract was 2630 yuan/ton; the alumina's main contract was 20 yuan/ton, the continuous contract was 2543 yuan/ton; LME aluminum 3M was 3193.00 dollars/ton, and COMEX aluminum's main contract was - 3143.25 dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE aluminum monthly spread (AL00 - AL01) was - 55 yuan/ton, the alumina monthly spread (A000 - A001) was - 133 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 0 - 3 spread was 22 dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory was 55752 tons, the alumina was 11737 tons, the LME aluminum was 494000 tons, and the COMEX aluminum was 529497 tons [1] Zinc - On January 14, 2026, the closing price of SHFE zinc's main contract was 24475 yuan/ton, the continuous contract was 24400 yuan/ton; LME zinc 3M was - 23 dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE zinc monthly spread (ZN00 - ZN01) was - 25 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 0 - 3 spread was 13.26 dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE zinc warehouse receipt inventory was - 351 tons, and the LME zinc was 11350 tons [1] Lead - On January 14, 2026, the closing price of SHFE lead's main contract was 17385 yuan/ton, the continuous contract was 70 yuan/ton; LME lead 3M was 2.00 dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE lead monthly spread (PB00 - PB01) was 0 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 0 - 3 spread was - 43.81 dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory was 9.720 tons, and the LME lead was 218925 tons [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel - On January 14, 2026, the closing price of SHFE nickel's main contract was 140940 yuan/ton, the continuous contract was 27450 yuan/ton; the stainless steel's main contract was 13925 yuan/ton, the continuous contract was 1.360 yuan/ton; LME nickel 3M was - 770 dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE nickel monthly spread (NI00 - NI01) was - 890 yuan/ton, the stainless steel monthly spread (SS00 - SS01) was - 270 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 0 - 3 spread was 35 dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE nickel warehouse receipt inventory was 40272 tons, the stainless steel was - 770 tons, and the LME nickel was 284148 tons [1] Tin - On January 14, 2026, the closing price of SHFE tin's main contract was 413170 yuan/ton, the continuous contract was 409900 yuan/ton; LME tin 3M was 10360 dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE tin monthly spread (SN00 - SN01) was - 3270 yuan/ton, and the LME tin 0 - 3 spread was 318 dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE tin warehouse receipt inventory was 7107 tons, and the LME tin was 5930 tons [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share annual report performance forecast season is unfolding with a notable difference from previous years, as companies with poor performance are disclosing their losses earlier than usual, alongside profit warnings from companies with better performance [1]. Group 1: Performance Forecast Trends - As of January 13, 2026, 105 listed companies have released their performance forecasts for 2025, accounting for 70.9% of recent disclosures, with 57 companies (54.29%) predicting losses [1]. - Traditionally, companies with good performance tend to report positive forecasts early, while those with poor performance delay their disclosures. However, this trend has been disrupted in January 2026, with loss announcements appearing simultaneously with profit increases [1][3]. Group 2: Industry Impact and Loss Distribution - The current wave of loss announcements is characterized by "uneven scale and industry concentration," with traditional cyclical industries being the hardest hit. The real estate sector has shown particularly poor performance, with all six companies that disclosed forecasts reporting losses [3]. - Among the 57 companies predicting losses, two are expected to lose over 10 billion, while others fall into various loss brackets, with the real estate giant Greenland Holdings projected to lose between 16 billion to 19 billion yuan, marking its third consecutive year of losses [3][4]. Group 3: Specific Company Forecasts - Yonghui Supermarket is expected to report a negative net profit for the fifth consecutive year, while the vaccine leader Zhifei Biological Products anticipates a loss of 10.698 billion to 13.726 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 630% to 780%, marking its first annual loss in 25 years [4]. - Other companies, such as Sanan Optoelectronics and Zhuosheng Micro, are also forecasting significant losses, with declines in their respective sectors [5]. Group 4: Profit Growth in Certain Sectors - In contrast to the loss announcements, companies in the resource and technology sectors are experiencing significant profit growth, driven by rising commodity prices and technological innovations. For instance, Zijin Mining expects a net profit of 51 to 52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62% [8]. - The technology sector is also seeing growth, with companies like Sanhua Intelligent Control projecting a profit increase of 25% to 50% due to advancements in their automotive parts business [8][9]. Group 5: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the early disclosure of losses is a strategy to manage investor expectations and prevent market volatility during the concentrated reporting period. This reflects a regulatory focus on transparency and investor protection [14]. - Looking ahead to 2026, there is a positive sentiment among institutions regarding market recovery, with expectations of improved corporate earnings driven by macroeconomic recovery and increased investor confidence [15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices have significantly increased recently, driven by the potential US refined copper tariff - expected inventory transfer to the US and investment fund inflows. Future copper price performance depends on terminal demand, US restocking, and Chinese demand recovery. It's expected to accumulate inventory steeply before the Spring Festival and de - stock quickly after [1]. - Aluminum's spot and futures prices are dominated by expectation trading with amplified fluctuations. Domestic apparent demand is weaker than previously judged, but strong expectations support the current high price [1][2]. - Zinc's domestic fundamentals are poor, but there is a temporary supply reduction at the end of the year, so the price may not fall deeply. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities for internal - external trading, and positive arbitrage opportunities for month - spread trading [5]. - Nickel's short - term real - world fundamentals are weak, and the game between short - term policies and fundamentals continues [6][7]. - Stainless steel's fundamentals are weak, and the price is mainly driven by nickel price in the short term [11]. - Lead prices are expected to oscillate next week. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of low warehouse receipts [12]. - Tin has strong support in the short - term, and the upward drive is stronger before the macro - sentiment weakens. In the long - term, demand determines the upside space [13]. - Industrial silicon's supply and demand are close to balance in the short - term, and the price is expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long - term, it will oscillate at the cycle bottom [16]. - Lithium carbonate prices are rising due to resource - end disturbances, processing fee increases, and macro - sentiment. Downstream buyers are cautious [19]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the spot price of Shanghai copper changed by 60, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 1290, and LME inventory decreased by 1750 [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The recent rise in copper prices is due to potential US tariffs and investment inflows. Future performance depends on demand and restocking [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 310, and LME inventory decreased by 2000 [1][24]. - **Market Outlook**: Expected trading affects prices. Domestic apparent demand is weak, but strong expectations support high prices [1][2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the spot premium decreased by 20, and LME inventory decreased by 650 [5]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is affected by TC decline and smelter maintenance. Demand is seasonally weak domestically and has different trends overseas. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and focus on arbitrage opportunities [5]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the price of Shanghai nickel changed by 3800, and LME inventory decreased by 228 [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Short - term fundamentals are weak, and the policy - fundamentals game continues [6][7]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil increased by 100 [11]. - **Market Outlook**: Fundamentals are weak, and the price follows nickel price in the short term [11]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the spot premium remained unchanged, and LME inventory decreased by 1275 [12]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is affected by production recovery and raw material tightness. Demand is expected to weaken. Prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to low warehouse receipt risk [12]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the spot import gain changed by 2456.09, and LME inventory increased by 490 [12][13]. - **Market Outlook**: There are supply risks in major countries. In the short - term, the price has strong support and upward drive. In the long - term, demand determines the upside space [13]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the 421 Yunnan basis changed by - 40, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [16]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply and demand are close to balance in the short - term, and the price will fluctuate with costs. In the long - term, it will oscillate at the cycle bottom [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 12000, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 610 [19]. - **Market Outlook**: Prices are rising due to resource - end disturbances and other factors. Downstream buyers are cautious [19].

Core Insights - Jinchuan Group Co., Ltd. has successfully developed high-performance K438 high-temperature alloy powder by overcoming key technical challenges related to rare earth element loss, segregation, and defect-free casting [2][6] - The K438 alloy is a nickel-based precipitation-strengthened high-temperature alloy, known for its excellent high-temperature strength, thermal corrosion resistance, and oxidation resistance, making it suitable for components in environments above 900°C, such as turbine blades and gas turbine hot-end parts [2][6] - The alloy powder can be utilized in additive manufacturing processes like laser selective melting and electron beam melting, allowing for the integrated production of complex structural parts with higher precision and material utilization compared to traditional casting methods [2][6] Technical Development - Upon receiving a special order from a client, the Nickel-Cobalt Metal Materials Research Institute quickly formed a research team to optimize alloy composition, control gas content, and improve powder particle size distribution, flowability, and bulk density [2][6] - The team employed plasma rotating electrode technology to produce high sphericity, low impurity, and high-density high-temperature alloy powder [2][6] - The product has an average particle size of 43μm to 45μm and a bulk density of 4.9g/cm³, with a smooth powder surface and no satellite or hollow particles, achieving advanced industry performance [2][6] Future Directions - The Nickel-Cobalt Metal Materials Research Institute now possesses both plasma rotating electrode and gas atomization production capabilities, enabling the development and mass production of various nickel-cobalt-based high-temperature alloy powders [3][7] - Jinchuan Group will continue to focus on market demand, adhering to the philosophy of "promoting production through research and driving research through production," accelerating technological innovation in high-performance alloy powders and key materials for additive manufacturing [3][7] - The company aims to contribute to the high-quality development of the non-ferrous metal new materials industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3][7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - No core viewpoints presented in the given content Group 3: Summary by Metals Gold (AU) - On 2026/1/5, the closing price of SHFE gold main contract was 17.44 yuan/gram, SHFE gold nearby contract was -11.94 yuan/gram, COMEX gold main contract was -173.30 dollars/ounce, COMEX gold nearby contract was -161.40 dollars/ounce, London gold spot price was 178.58 dollars/ounce, and SGE gold spot price was -9.47 yuan/gram. The domestic basis (Gold T+D - main contract) was 0.80 yuan/gram, and the overseas basis (LBMA gold spot - COMEX AU01) was -65.00 dollars/ounce [1] Silver (AG) - As of 2026/1/5, the closing price of SHFE silver main contract was 1,173 yuan/kilogram, SHFE silver nearby contract was 1,553 yuan/kilogram, COMEX silver main contract was 70.98 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver nearby contract was -4.92 dollars/ounce, London silver spot price was -2.85 dollars/ounce, and SGE silver spot price was -1.060 yuan/kilogram. The domestic basis (AG(T+D) - main contract) was 396 yuan/kilogram, and the overseas basis (LBMA silver现货 - COMEX AG01) was 0.43 dollars/ounce [1] Copper (CU, BC) - On 2026/1/5, the closing price of SHFE copper (CU) main contract was 10,370 yuan/ton, SHFE copper (CU) continuous contract was 10,230 yuan/ton, international copper (BC) main contract was 2,960 yuan/ton, international copper (BC) continuous contract was 8,800 yuan/ton, LME copper 3M closing price (15:00) was 1,413.50 dollars/ton, and COMEX copper main contract was 5.69 dollars/pound. The SHFE copper monthly spread (CU00 - CU01) was -160 yuan/ton, international copper monthly spread (BC00 - BC01) was -1,170 yuan/ton, LME copper 0 - 3 premium/discount was -9.48 dollars/ton [1] Aluminum and Alumina (AL, AO) - As of 2026/1/5, the closing price of SHFE aluminum (AL) main contract was 23,645 yuan/ton, SHFE aluminum (AL) continuous contract was 23,610 yuan/ton, alumina (AO) main contract was 2,770 yuan/ton, and alumina (AO) continuous contract was 2,620 yuan/ton. LME aluminum 3M closing price (15:00) was 93.50 dollars/ton, and COMEX aluminum main contract was -2,968.50 dollars/ton. The SHFE aluminum monthly spread (AL00 - AL01) was -60 yuan/ton, alumina monthly spread (A000 - A001) was 10 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium/discount was 5.00 dollars/ton [1] Zinc (ZN) - On 2026/1/5, the closing price of SHFE zinc (ZN) main contract was 23,820 yuan/ton, SHFE zinc (ZN) continuous contract was 23,800 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3M closing price (15:00) was 3,173 dollars/ton. The SHFE zinc monthly spread (ZN00 - ZN01) was -20 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 0 - 3 premium/discount was -5.96 dollars/ton [1] Lead (PB) - As of 2026/1/5, the closing price of SHFE lead (PB) main contract was 17,395 yuan/ton, SHFE lead (PB) continuous contract was 17,395 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3M closing price (15:00) was 2,020.00 dollars/ton. The SHFE lead monthly spread (PB00 - PB01) was 20 yuan/ton, and LME lead 0 - 3 premium/discount was -42.00 dollars/ton [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel (NI, SS) - On 2026/1/5, the closing price of SHFE nickel (NI) main contract was 134,100 yuan/ton, SHFE nickel (NI) continuous contract was 133,750 yuan/ton, stainless steel (SS) main contract was 13,075 yuan/ton, and stainless steel (SS) continuous contract was 12,910 yuan/ton. LME nickel 3M closing price (15:00) was 16,820 dollars/ton. The SHFE nickel monthly spread (NI00 - NI01) was 2,100 yuan/ton, and stainless steel monthly spread (SS00 - SS01) was -165 yuan/ton [1] Tin (SN) - As of 2026/1/5, the closing price of SHFE tin (SN) main contract was 334,370 yuan/ton, SHFE tin (SN) continuous contract was 334,030 yuan/ton, and LME tin 3M closing price (15:00) was 42,520 dollars/ton. The SHFE tin monthly spread (SN00 - SN01) was 520 yuan/ton, and LME tin 0 - 3 premium/discount was 322 dollars/ton [1]