棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2601 | 元/吨 | 14,030 | 0.00% | 14155 | 0.89% 0.60% | | | CY2511 | 元/吨 | 20,060 | 0.00% | 20180 | | | | ICE美棉12 | 美分/磅 | 68 | 0.79% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2601 | 手 | 214,219 | 16,126 | 727,579 | -6,325 | | | CY2511 | 手 | 5,396 | -1,999 | 21,958 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日变动 | | | 郑棉 | 张 | 7,198 | -137 | 63 | -125 | | | 棉纱 | 张 | 64 | -5 | 0 | 69 | | | | | 价 ...

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The cotton spot trading is average, with textile enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases. The spot basis remains relatively stable. The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market has rebounded, but overall it is still average, and the yarn price continues to rise slightly. The ICE cotton futures are in short - term oscillation waiting for new drivers [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For CF2601, the closing price was 14,100 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.18%, and the night - session closing price was 14,100 yuan/ton with no change. The trading volume was 209,409 lots, a decrease of 31,617 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 759,524 lots, a decrease of 4,507 lots. For CY2511, the closing price was 20,145 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.05%, and the night - session closing price was 20,160 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase. The trading volume was 7,879 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 21,914 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots. The ICE US cotton 12 closed at 67.53 cents/pound, a 0.46% decline [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 7,762, a decrease of 67 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 249 with no change. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 69, a decrease of 5 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 0, an increase of 74 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,292 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton (0.33%) from the previous day; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,983 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton (0.33%) from the previous day. The 3128B index was 15,243 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton (0.06%) from the previous day. The international cotton index M was 75.34 cents/pound, an increase of 0.26 cents/pound (0.35%) from the previous day. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton (- 0.10%) from the previous day [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 295 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,190 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: According to TTEB information, the cotton spot trading is average, with textile enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases. The offers of cotton in inland warehouses are relatively numerous, and the spot basis remains relatively stable. Different regions and qualities of cotton have different sales bases [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market has rebounded, with increased downstream restocking purchases, but overall it is still average. The feedback from textile enterprises varies greatly, and the yarn price continues to rise slightly [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures declined slightly yesterday. The US Department of Agriculture lowered the US cotton production and ending stocks for the 25/26 season, providing support for the ICE cotton futures. The ICE cotton is in short - term oscillation waiting for new drivers [2]. 3. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5].

Core Viewpoint - The cotton fiber industry in China is undergoing a critical transformation, driven by policies promoting intelligent, green, and high-value upgrades, with a focus on domestic demand recovery and export resilience despite import restrictions [1][4][14]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Cotton fiber, a natural seed fiber primarily composed of cellulose, is essential in the textile industry due to its unique structure, which provides softness and moisture absorption [2]. - The industry is categorized into three types based on botanical varieties: short-staple cotton, long-staple cotton, and coarse cotton, and further classified by processing methods and quality indicators [2]. Group 2: Development Background - China has established a systematic policy framework to support the cotton fiber industry, including various development guidelines aimed at technological innovation, green manufacturing, and digital empowerment [4]. - Xinjiang, as a major cotton-producing region, has implemented policies to enhance the cotton and textile industry through subsidies and support for intelligent and green upgrades [4]. Group 3: Current Industry Status - The cotton textile industry in China is experiencing a recovery, with a June 2025 industry prosperity index reaching 50.3%, indicating a return to growth driven by improved domestic consumption and macroeconomic signals [7]. - The domestic cotton market is projected to see an increase in production to 6.664 million tons in the 2024/25 season, while consumption is expected to decrease to 7.8 million tons, leading to a "production increase, demand decrease" scenario [14]. Group 4: Industry Chain Analysis - The cotton fiber industry chain is characterized by upstream large-scale planting, midstream intelligent processing, and downstream diversified applications, with Xinjiang accounting for 90% of national production [9]. - The downstream sector is expanding into high-value areas such as medical cotton products and biodegradable fibers, while the export sector is transitioning towards ODM/OBM models [9][11]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape of the cotton fiber industry is marked by a "dual tower" structure, with leading companies like Weiqiao Textile and Huafu Fashion dominating the market through comprehensive industry chain layouts and technological innovation [18][20]. - The industry is witnessing a trend towards increased concentration, with a significant number of small and medium enterprises seeking breakthroughs through equipment upgrades and market repositioning [18]. Group 6: Future Trends - The industry is moving towards intelligent and green transformations, with advancements in biotechnology and digital technology reshaping traditional planting and processing methods [23][24]. - There is a growing emphasis on sustainable development and circular economy practices, with organic cotton production expanding and new biomanufacturing techniques emerging [25][26].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Cotton futures prices reached a new high for the year. The trend strength of cotton is neutral with a value of 0 [1][4]. - Domestic cotton spot trading was average, with local basis - locked transactions and stable overall basis. The cotton yarn market was lackluster, and the cotton fabric market had few real orders and high inventory [2]. - ICE cotton futures fluctuated narrowly after two consecutive days of gains and were waiting for the export sales data on Thursday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2509 closed at 13,990 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 1.01%, and 14,165 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 1.25%. Trading volume was 386,635 lots, an increase of 89,128 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 883,428 lots, an increase of 37,744 lots [1]. - CY2509 closed at 20,180 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.65%, and 20,360 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 0.89%. Trading volume was 7,504 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 20,395 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - ICE cotton 12 closed at 68.56 cents/pound yesterday with a decrease of - 0.01% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts were 9,643, a decrease of 73 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 223, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - Cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 98, unchanged from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 98 from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Data**: - The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,320 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.79%. The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,990 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.81% [1]. - The price in Shandong was 15,226 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan/ton from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.25%. The price in Hebei was 15,313 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan/ton from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.32% [1]. - The 3128B index was 15,272 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.20%. The international cotton index M was 76.14 cents/pound, an increase of 0.58% from the previous day [1]. - The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 22,122 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan/ton from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.06% [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The CF9 - 1 spread was 95 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: According to TTEB, cotton spot trading was average, with local basis - locked transactions and stable overall basis. Different regions and qualities of cotton had different basis quotes [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The pure - cotton yarn market had little change in trading, and the overall atmosphere was still dull. Yarn prices were stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream enterprises were gradually digesting the previous price increases. The off - season continued, and spinning mills continued to reduce production by lowering the operating rate to relieve inventory pressure. The all - cotton fabric market had few real orders, and manufacturers had high inventory and poor sales [2]. - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures fluctuated narrowly after two consecutive days of gains and were waiting for the export sales data on Thursday [2]. 3.3 Trend Strength The trend strength of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

Core Insights - Wei Qiao Chuang Ye Group has evolved from a small cotton processing factory in Shandong to a multinational enterprise with 100,000 employees, consistently ranked among the Fortune Global 500 since 2012 [1] - The company focuses on traditional manufacturing sectors such as textiles and aluminum, while also expanding into emerging fields like new energy, new materials, and automotive lightweighting [1] - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve sales revenue of 558.3 billion yuan, contributing to employment for over 500,000 people [1] Group 1: Business Overview - Wei Qiao Chuang Ye Group is a leading player in the global cotton textile and electrolytic aluminum industries, having been recognized in the Fortune Global 500 for 13 consecutive years [1] - The company has established over 20 innovation platforms, developing more than 3,000 new products annually and holding over 2,800 patents, with 19 technologies reaching international leading standards [1] - The company operates 16 internationally advanced intelligent textile factories and is building a world-class research and manufacturing base for automotive lightweighting [1] Group 2: Development Strategies - The company emphasizes green and low-carbon development as a pathway for high-quality growth, particularly in the energy-intensive aluminum sector, by relocating some production to Yunnan to utilize hydropower and deploying solar energy in Shandong [2] - The company is actively pursuing digital transformation, leveraging AI technology to enhance production efficiency and reduce energy consumption in the aluminum sector [2] - Innovation is driven not only through product and process improvements but also through collaborations with educational institutions and research centers, fostering internal motivation for innovation and embracing AI and big data for management and operational enhancements [3]

Group 1 - The concept of "basis" is increasingly discussed and utilized in the cotton textile industry, reflecting the deep integration of cotton futures and the spot market, which is profoundly impacting the industry's development [1] - The cotton spinning industry in China is experiencing a decline in revenue and profit, influenced by regional capacity restructuring and increased competition, as well as complex international conditions and rising tariff barriers [2][3] - The correlation between cotton futures prices and the domestic spot price index CC Index3128B has remained high, with a correlation coefficient above 0.9, indicating a strong relationship between the two markets [3] Group 2 - Cotton enterprises are actively exploring new models of utilizing futures, with companies like Zhongmian Group adopting a resource control model to enhance their operational stability and risk management [4] - Large trading companies are integrating futures tools into their operations, using warehouse receipt pledge financing to support upstream cotton purchases and employing basis trading and options trading to lock in profits and mitigate risks [5] - Small and medium-sized enterprises are adopting flexible strategies to participate in the futures market, often relying on large trading firms for risk management and financing through warehouse receipt pledge financing [6] Group 3 - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has expanded its business model to provide new financing tools for cotton textile enterprises, addressing their significant financing needs [6][7] - In 2018, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange launched a comprehensive business platform that allows entities to trade warehouse receipts, catering to diverse procurement and financing needs [7] - The scale of warehouse receipt repurchase business reached 3.9 billion yuan in 2019, with a significant portion attributed to cotton warehouse receipts, indicating a growing reliance on warehouse receipt financing among enterprises [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - Cotton futures prices lacked effective drivers and retreated after a rally. The cotton market faced a complex situation with various factors influencing supply and demand, and the overall market sentiment was neutral [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 13,740 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.15% and a night - session closing price of 13,730 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.07%. CY2509 closed at 19,990 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.57% and a night - session closing price of 20,010 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.10%. ICE US cotton 12 closed at 68.04 cents/pound with a decline of 1.85%. The trading volume of CF2509 was 456,550 lots, an increase of 205,573 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 863,411 lots, a decrease of 12,095 lots. The trading volume of CY2509 was 11,405 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 21,776 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 10,273, a decrease of 29, and the effective forecast was 301, an increase of 6. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 2, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 3, a decrease of 1 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,060 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan or 0.33% compared to the previous day. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,760 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price in Shandong was 15,153 yuan/ton, an increase of 38 yuan or 0.25%. The price in Hebei was 15,109 yuan/ton, an increase of 91 yuan or 0.61%. The 3128B index was 15,154 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan or 0.30%. The international cotton index M was 76.83 cents/pound, an increase of 1 cent or 0.73%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,420 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan or 0.20%, and the arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 21,910 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan or - 0.10% [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous day's spread. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 increased by 70 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Local cotton spot trading was slightly better than last week, with most transactions based on locked basis prices. The overall basis remained stable. There were more pre - sale quotes for new cotton in the 2025/26 season in Xinjiang [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The price increase of pure - cotton yarn was less than that of cotton, and the cash - flow losses of spinning enterprises widened. Downstream demand was weak, and spinning enterprises were expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The all - cotton grey fabric market had light trading, and many fabric mills continued to cut production [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures fell yesterday because the US cotton planting area in the 2025/26 season was 10.12 million acres, higher than the market average forecast of 9.8 million acres and the USDA's June supply - demand report forecast of 9.87 million acres. As of June 29, the US cotton sowing progress was 95%, compared with 97% in the same period last year and a 5 - year average of 98%. The good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 50%, up from 47% the previous week and the same as 50% in the same period last year [3][4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5]

Core Viewpoint - The global cotton market has experienced significant fluctuations in the first half of the year due to trade tensions and supply-demand dynamics, with domestic cotton prices gradually recovering after hitting a near six-year low [1][2] Group 1: Cotton Price Trends - Cotton prices fell to 13,527 yuan/ton on April 9, down 992 yuan/ton from the high point earlier in the year, but began to recover following easing trade tensions from the China-U.S. Geneva economic talks in May [1][2] - The average price of China's 3128B grade cotton is expected to reach 14,417 yuan/ton in the second half of the year, an increase of 317 yuan/ton compared to the first half [3] Group 2: Supply Chain and Import Dynamics - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. has raised concerns about the stability of the global cotton textile industry, leading to a significant increase in import cotton costs and a shift towards Brazilian cotton, which accounted for 45% of imports in the first half of 2024 [2] - By 2025, the proportion of U.S. cotton imports is expected to drop to 20%, while Brazilian cotton's share may rise to 57% [2] Group 3: Industry Restructuring and Innovation - The cotton textile industry is focusing on "new quality productivity" to reshape competitive advantages through supply chain resilience [4] - Xinjiang is actively promoting the development of the cotton and textile industry chain, aiming to enhance the local conversion rate of cotton and build industry clusters [4] - Companies are leveraging technological innovation and digital transformation to enhance production resilience, with initiatives like smart factories and AI-driven optimization [4] Group 4: Future Outlook and Industry Strategy - Despite low revenue and profit levels in the cotton textile industry expected in the first half of 2025, structural adjustments such as capacity expansion and digital transformation are showing initial results [5] - The industry is encouraged to focus on high-quality development to address external uncertainties, emphasizing technological innovation and supply chain enhancement [5]

Group 1 - The global cotton market is entering a new production cycle, with major cotton-producing countries like China, Brazil, and Australia expected to increase their output [1] - China's cotton planting area is projected to reach 44.823 million acres by 2025, with Xinjiang's area growing by 3.3% year-on-year, benefiting from favorable weather conditions [1] - Domestic cotton market shows a nuanced situation, with import tariffs closing the import window, leading some companies to use domestic cotton, resulting in a reduction of cotton inventory and a tightening of high-grade cotton supply [1] Group 2 - Concerns about future cotton prices persist, with the market characterized by "large supply, stable consumption, strong support, and weak driving forces," leading to expectations of price fluctuations [2] - The new cotton basis and purchase prices are expected to be lower than in 2024, with long-term high basis levels likely unsustainable due to a global supply exceeding demand [2] Group 3 - The cotton textile industry is facing renewed pressure due to declining cotton prices and insufficient terminal demand, leading to a drop in average profit margins and effective demand [4] - Revenue and profit in the industry have fallen to their lowest levels in over a decade, with revenues for 2023-2024 projected to shrink to below one trillion yuan and total profits at only 21.7 billion yuan [4] - The operating profit margin has decreased from 3.09% in 2022 to 1.82% in the first four months of 2025, with the loss ratio expanding to 28.1%, marking a historical high [4]

Core Viewpoint - The global cotton market is expected to experience a significant increase in production, with major producing regions such as China, Brazil, and Australia anticipating higher yields. However, the cotton price may face downward pressure as new crops are harvested in October [1][2]. Group 1: Cotton Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic cotton basis remains strong, reflecting structural supply-demand contradictions, particularly a shortage of high-grade cotton. The increase in domestic cotton usage is driven by tariff hikes that have forced some enterprises to switch to local cotton [3][4]. - The current cotton inventory is continuously depleting, leading to a marginal improvement in the cotton market fundamentals. However, the demand remains weak, particularly during the textile off-season from June to September, which could put pressure on the cotton basis [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Challenges and Profitability - The cotton textile industry is facing significant challenges, including persistently low average profit margins and insufficient effective demand. This has led to an accelerated industry reshuffle, with the scale of cotton textile revenue expected to shrink to below one trillion yuan, marking a significant decline from previous years [5][6]. - The profit margin for large-scale cotton textile enterprises has decreased from 3.09% in 2022 to 1.82% in the first four months of 2025, indicating a continuous downward trend and the highest loss ratio in the industry [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Development Initiatives - Despite the current challenges, the cotton textile industry has a solid foundation and potential for long-term growth. The industry is encouraged to optimize its structure, enhance technological innovation, and focus on green development to maintain confidence and improve its image [7]. - The industry is expected to further align with macro policies, develop new productive forces, and deepen industrial transformation to promote high-quality development while preventing unhealthy competition [7].