证券研究报告 2026 年 1 月 20 日 星期二 板块排名： 【A 股市场大势研判】 沪指走势较强，创业板指冲高回落 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 4114.00 | 0.29% | 12.09 | | | 深证成指 | 14294.05 | 0.09% | 12.97 | | | 沪深 300 | 4734.46 | 0.05% | 2.58 | | | 创业板 | 3337.61 | -0.70% | -23.41 | | | 科创 50 | 1506.86 | -0.48% | -7.21 | | | 北证 50 | 1548.33 | 0.00% | 0.00 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 | 申万一级涨幅前五 | | | 申万一级跌幅前五 | 热点板块 n | 涨幅前五 | 热点板块跌幅前五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基础化工 | 2.70% | 计算机 ...

Group 1: Military Exercises - The Eastern Theater Command of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is conducting significant military exercises and live-fire drills in designated maritime and aerial areas from 8 AM to 6 PM today, emphasizing a strong stance against separatism and interference to maintain national sovereignty and territorial integrity [1] - On December 30 at 1 PM, the Eastern Theater Command's army, in coordination with the navy, air force, and rocket forces, executed a long-range joint fire strike in the southern waters related to Taiwan, achieving the expected results [2] - The PLA organized naval and air forces to conduct verification, warning, and simulated strike exercises in the northern and southern waters of Taiwan, testing their integrated control capabilities [4] Group 2: Tax Policy Announcement - The Ministry of Finance announced that individuals selling residential properties purchased for less than two years will be subject to a full 3% value-added tax, while those selling properties held for two years or more will be exempt from this tax. This policy will take effect on January 1, 2026 [3] Group 3: Market Performance - The Shenzhen Component Index saw a slight increase of 0.23% during the morning session, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.1%. The total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 1.3039 trillion yuan, down by 103.9 billion yuan from the previous day [6] - Sectors such as gaming, film, and AI applications showed strong performance, with stocks like Baidu and Jin Yi Films hitting the daily limit, while sectors like the Hainan Free Trade Zone and retail faced declines [6]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a structural rotation rather than a comprehensive recovery, with funds shifting from previous hot themes like commercial aerospace to AI applications that have significant growth potential but are currently undervalued [4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market is divided into two distinct segments: one characterized by enthusiasm for AI applications, and the other showing weakness in sectors like Hainan Free Trade Zone and retail, with over 2,700 stocks declining [4]. - The trading volume has decreased significantly, with a drop of over 1 trillion in transaction value, indicating a lack of overall market liquidity and a concentrated flow of funds into a few high-potential areas [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on AI application sectors while being cautious not to chase stocks that have already reached their peak during high emotional periods; instead, look for stocks with solid business logic that have not yet seen significant price increases [5]. - There is a need for vigilance regarding the overall market environment, as the shrinking trading volume is a warning sign; if the market does not show effective volume growth in the afternoon, caution should be exercised regarding the sectors that have shown strength [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent eight consecutive days of gains in the Shanghai Composite Index signal a positive outlook, indicating that the A-share year-end rally has commenced [1] Group 1: Market Drivers - Three main expectations are driving the initiation of the year-end rally: a consensus of optimism among institutional investors, the anticipated early arrival of the spring market, and the conclusion of adjustments in overseas AI models, leading to improved liquidity and risk conditions [1] - Recent announcements of the 15th Five-Year Plan policies and events have heightened investor expectations regarding policy [1] Group 2: Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch for the year-end rally include non-ferrous metals and AI computing power, which are expected to experience significant catalytic growth [1] - The primary market focus remains on commercial aerospace, with secondary themes including the Hainan Free Trade Zone, controllable nuclear fusion, and humanoid robots [1]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities indicates that the A-share year-end rally has begun, driven by positive signals from the recent eight consecutive days of gains in the Shanghai Composite Index, following the completion of a mid-term adjustment [1] Market Outlook - The optimistic expectations from institutional investors suggest that the spring market rally may start earlier than usual [1] - Improvements in overseas liquidity and risk, alongside the conclusion of adjustments in AI models in the U.S., contribute to a favorable market environment [1] - The release of numerous policies and events related to the 14th Five-Year Plan has heightened investor expectations [1] Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch include non-ferrous metals and AI computing power, with commercial aerospace remaining the primary market focus [1] - Secondary themes include the Hainan Free Trade Zone, controllable nuclear fusion, and humanoid robots [1] Specific Sector Insights - The upgrade of NVIDIA's Rubin architecture is expected to boost the entire AI computing power industry chain, benefiting sectors such as optical fibers, liquid-cooled servers, CPOs, and storage chips [1] - Non-ferrous metals continue to maintain a rising trend due to price increases in lithium carbonate, gold, silver, copper, and aluminum, indicating a high level of industry prosperity [1] - The market's thematic focus remains on commercial aerospace, with secondary attention on the Hainan Free Trade Zone, controllable nuclear fusion, and humanoid robots [1] Investment Highlights - Key sectors for investment consideration include non-ferrous metals, commercial aerospace, AI, humanoid robots, controllable nuclear fusion, innovative pharmaceuticals, non-bank financials, and the Hainan Free Trade Zone [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.29% to 3952.5 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.11% and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.38% [1][2] - The total market turnover reached 12.119 billion yuan, an increase of 527 million yuan compared to the previous day, with over 3200 stocks rising [1][2] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector experienced a significant surge, leading the market gains, while the paper and military industries also saw notable increases [1] - Precious metals prices, after reaching new highs, retreated, contributing to a collective pullback in the non-ferrous metals sector [1] - The Hainan Free Trade Zone, beverage manufacturing, and components sectors faced declines [1]

Group 1 - The Hainan Free Trade Zone sector experienced a sharp rise on December 24, with Hainan Development hitting the daily limit up [1] - Other companies that saw gains include Shennong Seed Industry, Haima Automobile, Xinlong Holdings, Hainan Airlines Group, and Junda Co., Ltd [1]

Group 1 - The Hainan Free Trade Zone sector experienced a short-term decline, with Hainan Haiyao falling over 6% [1] - Other companies such as Zhongtung High-tech, Luoniushan, Kangzhi Pharmaceutical, and Hainan Rubber also saw declines [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed positive momentum with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.34%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.65%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.78% as of midday trading [3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 52.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3,300 stocks declining [4] Sector Performance - The lithium battery sector experienced a significant surge, with stocks like Multi-Fluorine and Tianji Co. hitting the daily limit [5] - The precious metals sector also saw gains, with Shandong Gold rising over 6% and other gold stocks following suit [8] - The semiconductor index continued its strong performance, while sectors such as commercial aerospace and consumer goods faced adjustments [6] Notable Stocks and Trends - The carbon lithium main contract saw a daily increase of 4.00%, currently priced at 118,460 yuan per ton [10] - The Fujian sector showed notable activity, with stocks like Haixia Innovation surging over 10% amid news of new operational phases in Pingtan [9] - The insurance sector saw short-term gains, with major companies like New China Insurance and China Ping An both rising over 1% [11] Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 59.3 billion yuan for a 7-day term at an interest rate of 1.40%, with 135.3 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing today [18] - The RMB to USD central parity rate was reported at 7.0523, an increase of 49 basis points from the previous trading day [19]

Company News - Sanhua Intelligent Control expects net profit attributable to shareholders to be between 3.874 billion and 4.649 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 25%-50% [2] - Yongding Co., Ltd. plans to increase capital and introduce external investors for its subsidiary, Dingxin Optoelectronics, raising a total of 55 million yuan [2] - Ningbo Huaxiang's subsidiary signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Shenzhen Dahuang Robot Technology to enhance collaboration in the development and manufacturing of general humanoid robot dexterous hands [2] - Tongyu Communication's subsidiary plans to introduce investors through capital increase, with a total investment of 10 million yuan [2] - Reader Culture announced that its controlling shareholder is planning a change in control, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock [2] Industry News - Quantum Computing: A significant advancement in quantum error correction was achieved by a team at the University of Science and Technology of China, laying a foundation for practical quantum computers [6] - Commercial Space: The 2025 Third Commercial Space Development Conference will be held on December 24, focusing on national policies and key technology discussions [7] - Hainan Free Trade Zone: The full island closure operation officially started, with Sanya reporting a sales figure of 118 million yuan on the first day [8] - Humanoid Robots: The robot rental market has surpassed 1 billion yuan this year, with expectations to grow to at least 10 billion yuan next year [9] - Semiconductor Equipment: The global semiconductor equipment market is expected to reach 133 billion dollars in 2025, driven by AI-related investments [14]