国家统计局12月10日发布数据显示，11月份，居民消费持续恢复，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比 略降0.1%，同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比上月扩大0.5个百分点，为2024年3月份以来最高。1-11月平均，全国 居民消费价格与上年同期持平。 "受前期天气及生产流通环节短期扰动影响，部分生鲜农产品供应阶段性收紧，叠加年末需求上升，带 动食品分项价格快速上行。"国联民生证券首席经济学家陶川表示。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟表示，11月份，CPI同比涨幅扩大主要是食品价格由降转涨拉动。 此外，受国内部分行业供需结构优化、国际大宗商品价格传导等因素影响，11月份，工业生产者出厂价 格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.1%，同比下降2.2%。 食品价格拉动CPI同比涨幅扩大 从同比看，11月份，食品价格由上月下降2.9%转为上涨0.2%，对CPI同比的影响由上月下拉0.54个百分 点转为上拉0.04个百分点。 具体看，食品中，11月份，鲜菜价格同比由上月下降7.3%转为上涨14.5%，为连续下降9个月后首次转 涨；猪肉和禽肉类价格同比分别下降15.0%和0.6%，降幅均有收窄。 ● 本报记者 连润 11月份，PPI环比上 ...

格隆汇12月10日｜国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读2025年11月份PPI数据：11月PPI环比上涨 0.1%，连续两个月上涨。本月PPI环比运行的主要特点： 一是国内部分行业需求季节性增加带动其价格 上涨。各地"迎峰度冬"开始，煤炭、燃气需求季节性增加，煤炭开采和洗选业价格环比上涨4.1%，煤炭 加工价格上涨3.4%，燃气生产和供应业价格上涨0.7%。入冬以来，防寒保暖产品进入消费旺季，毛织 造加工价格上涨0.6%，羽绒制品加工价格上涨0.2%。 二是输入性因素影响国内有色金属和石油相关行 业价格走势分化。国际有色金属价格上行带动国内有色金属矿采选业价格环比上涨2.6%，有色金属冶 炼和压延加工业价格上涨2.1%，其中铜冶炼、金冶炼、铝冶炼价格分别上涨2.9%、1.4%和0.2%。国际 油价下行影响国内石油和天然气开采业价格下降2.4%，精炼石油产品制造价格下降2.2%。 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the highest growth since March 2024, with a rise of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [2] - Food prices shifted from a decline of 2.9% to an increase of 0.2%, contributing positively to the CPI, with fresh vegetable prices rising by 14.5% after nine months of decline [2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2%, maintaining above 1% for three consecutive months, driven by increases in service prices and industrial consumer goods [2][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month, marking two consecutive months of growth, influenced by seasonal demand increases in certain domestic industries [4] - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 2.2%, with the decline slightly widening by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, primarily due to high comparison bases from the previous year [6] - The prices in key industries such as coal mining and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing showed a narrowing decline, indicating improvements in market competition and policy effectiveness [6]

一、CPI同比涨幅扩大，核心CPI上涨1.2% 2025年11月份CPI同比涨幅扩大 核心CPI继续上涨 ——国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读2025年11月份CPI和PPI数据 11月份，居民消费持续恢复，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比略降0.1%，同比上涨0.7%，扣除食品和能 源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%。受国内部分行业供需结构优化、国际大宗商品价格传导等因素影响， 工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.1%，同比下降2.2%。 PPI环比上涨0.1%，连续两个月上涨。本月PPI环比运行的主要特点：一是国内部分行业需求季节性增加 带动其价格上涨。各地"迎峰度冬"开始，煤炭、燃气需求季节性增加，煤炭开采和洗选业价格环比上涨 4.1%，煤炭加工价格上涨3.4%，燃气生产和供应业价格上涨0.7%。入冬以来，防寒保暖产品进入消费 旺季，毛织造加工价格上涨0.6%，羽绒制品加工价格上涨0.2%。二是输入性因素影响国内有色金属和 石油相关行业价格走势分化。国际有色金属价格上行带动国内有色金属矿采选业价格环比上涨2.6%， 有色金属冶炼和压延加工业价格上涨2.1%，其中铜冶炼、金冶炼、铝冶炼价格分别上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has increased by 0.1% month-on-month for the first time in 2023, indicating an improvement in supply-demand relationships across various industries [1] Group 1: PPI Trends - The month-on-month PPI has shifted from flat to an increase of 0.1%, marking the first rise this year [1] - Key industries experiencing price increases include coal mining and washing (up 1.6%), coal processing (up 0.8%), and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing (up 0.6), all of which have seen continuous price rises for over two months [1] - Other sectors such as cement manufacturing, computer assembly, lithium-ion battery manufacturing, and integrated circuit manufacturing have also transitioned from price declines to increases, with respective rises of 1.6%, 0.5%, 0.2%, and 0.2% [1] Group 2: Impact of External Factors - Domestic prices in the non-ferrous metals and petroleum-related industries have shown a divergence due to external factors [1] - The rise in international non-ferrous metal prices has led to a 5.3% increase in domestic non-ferrous metal mining prices and a 2.4% increase in non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling prices, with gold and copper smelting prices rising by 8.7% and 4.3%, respectively [1] - Conversely, the decline in international oil prices has resulted in a 2.3% decrease in domestic oil and natural gas extraction prices and a 0.8% decrease in refined petroleum product manufacturing prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the inflation trends in May, highlighting a slight decrease in CPI and a more significant drop in PPI, with implications for future economic conditions and policy responses [1][10]. Group 1: CPI Inflation - May CPI inflation was reported at -0.1% year-on-year, matching the previous value and exceeding market expectations of -0.2% [1][2]. - Energy prices have significantly dragged down CPI inflation, while core CPI showed slight upward support [2][6]. - Food prices experienced a mild decline, with a 0.2% drop month-on-month, which is less than the average decline of 1.4% over the past five years [5]. - Core CPI inflation rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 0.6% year-on-year, although month-on-month momentum has weakened [6][7]. - Service prices remained resilient, with travel prices increasing by 0.8% month-on-month, surpassing the five-year average of 0.2% [6]. Group 2: PPI Inflation - May PPI inflation was reported at -3.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and -0.4% month-on-month, which is weaker than the historical average since 2017 [10][12]. - The decline in PPI is attributed to weak oil prices affecting the entire industrial chain and a slowdown in the construction sector due to adverse weather conditions [10][12]. - Despite the overall decline, there are signs of recovery in prices related to exports and new growth sectors, with textile prices narrowing their decline and some electronic prices turning positive [12][15]. Group 3: Forward Outlook - Looking ahead, energy prices are expected to remain weak, with Brent crude oil projected to fluctuate between $60 and $70 [9]. - The overall pace of CPI recovery is anticipated to be slow, influenced by policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption [16]. - For the second quarter, CPI inflation is expected to stabilize around 0%, while PPI inflation may drop to approximately -3.0% [16].

Group 1 - In May 2025, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers decreased by 3.3% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, while the purchasing price index fell by 3.6% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month [2] - The average PPI and purchasing prices from January to May 2025 both declined by 2.6% compared to the same period last year [2] - The decline in domestic prices is influenced by international factors, particularly the drop in international crude oil prices, which led to a 5.6% decrease in the oil and gas extraction industry and a 3.5% decrease in refined petroleum product manufacturing [2] Group 2 - The coal mining and washing industry saw a price drop of 3.0%, while coal processing prices fell by 1.1% due to seasonal demand and sufficient inventory [2] - The black metal smelting and rolling industry, along with the non-metallic mineral products industry, experienced a price decline of 1.0% due to ample supply of construction materials [2] - The year-on-year decline in PPI has widened by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, but some industries are showing signs of price recovery due to improved supply-demand relationships [3] Group 3 - Consumer demand is recovering, leading to price increases in living materials, supported by policies aimed at boosting consumption [3] - The development of high-end equipment manufacturing is contributing to price increases in related industries, reflecting a trend towards high-tech product demand [3] - The transition towards high-end, intelligent, and green industries is progressing steadily, with some sectors experiencing year-on-year price increases [3]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6% year-on-year, a rise of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1][2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, although some sectors showed marginal price improvements [1][3] - The decline in CPI was primarily driven by a 1.7% decrease in energy prices, which accounted for approximately 70% of the total CPI decline, while food prices fell by 0.2%, less than the seasonal average decline of 1.1% [1][2] Group 2 - In May, the year-on-year decline in energy prices was 6.1%, which was the main factor affecting the CPI, contributing approximately 0.47 percentage points to the overall decline [2] - The core CPI's increase of 0.6% year-on-year was supported by rising prices in various categories, including gold jewelry (up 40.1%), household textiles (up 1.9%), and durable goods for entertainment (up 1.8%) [2] - The PPI's decline was influenced by international factors, particularly the decrease in international crude oil prices, which affected domestic oil-related industries, contributing approximately 0.23 percentage points to the PPI decline [3]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 0.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from April [1][3] - The decline in CPI was primarily influenced by a 1.7% decrease in energy prices, which accounted for approximately 0.13 percentage points of the total CPI decline [2] - The hospitality and tourism sectors saw price increases of 4.6% and 0.8% respectively, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [2][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.6 percentage points compared to April [1][4] - The decrease in PPI was largely due to international factors, with significant price drops in the oil and gas extraction sector (5.6%) and refined petroleum products (3.5%) [4] - Domestic energy and raw material prices also saw a decline, particularly in the coal sector, which experienced a 3.0% drop due to seasonal demand [4][6] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The core CPI's mild recovery reflects improvements in supply and demand structures across various industries, supported by macroeconomic policies [3][6] - The overall economic resilience is expected to lead to a gradual recovery in CPI, with increased demand during the summer likely to boost service prices [3] - The PPI is anticipated to show marginal improvement, although it may take time to exit negative territory [6]

Group 1 - The core objective of macroeconomic policy in the second half of the year is to promote a reasonable recovery of price levels, which will create space for fiscal measures to boost consumption and investment, as well as for further interest rate cuts by the central bank [1][2][5] - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of negative growth, primarily due to falling energy prices and lower food prices [1][3][4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a year-on-year decline of 3.3% in May, with the drop in production material prices contributing significantly to this decline [1][6][10] Group 2 - The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.6% year-on-year in May, indicating a slight improvement in underlying price levels [1][4][5] - The decline in food prices, particularly fresh vegetables and eggs, has been a major factor in the overall CPI decrease, with fresh vegetable prices dropping by 8.3% year-on-year [3][4][6] - The implementation of policies aimed at boosting consumption, such as the trade-in program for vehicles and appliances, has provided some support to prices in certain sectors [4][5][8] Group 3 - The analysis indicates that while the PPI is expected to show marginal improvement, it is likely to remain in negative territory for some time due to external and internal pressures [8][9][10] - The demand for high-tech products is increasing, leading to price increases in sectors such as integrated circuits and aircraft manufacturing [8] - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with low inflation levels exerting pressure on corporate operations and employment [5][6]