Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report presents the basis statistics of various futures on November 14, 2025, including the basis for the current month, next month, and the month after next, contract prices, spot prices, basis rates, and their changes compared to the previous day for different commodities across multiple sectors such as non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, energy, and chemicals. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The spot price is 87390, the basis rate is - 0.14%, and it decreased by - 0.21% compared to the previous day [4]. - Aluminum: For different types, the basis rates range from - 0.32% to - 1.02%, with changes from 0.12% to 0.40% compared to the previous day [4]. - Zinc: The spot price is 22655, the basis rate is - 0.11%, and it increased by 0.02% compared to the previous day [4]. - Tin: The spot price is 296000, the basis rate is - 0.24%, and it decreased by - 0.06% compared to the previous day [4]. - Nickel: The spot price is 120650, the basis rate is 1.52%, and it increased by 0.22% compared to the previous day [4]. - Industrial Silicon: The spot price is 9500, the basis rate is 3.49%, and it decreased by - 0.17% compared to the previous day [4]. - Lithium Carbonate: The spot price is 84370, the basis rate is - 4.52%, and it decreased by - 0.68% compared to the previous day [4]. Precious Metals - Gold: The spot price is 958.67, the basis rate is - 0.27%, and it decreased by - 0.11% compared to the previous day [4]. - Silver: The spot price is 12563, the basis rate is - 0.20%, and it decreased by - 0.36% compared to the previous day [4]. Ferrous Metals - Rebar: The spot price is 3139, the basis rate is 5.71%, and it increased by 0.38% compared to the previous day [4]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The spot price is 3263, the basis rate is 0.80%, and it increased by 0.03% compared to the previous day [4]. - Iron Ore: The spot price is 821.5, the basis rate is 6.34%, and it increased by 0.21% compared to the previous day [4]. - Coke: The spot price is 1680, the basis rate is - 0.35%, and it decreased by - 0.43% compared to the previous day [4]. - Coking Coal: The spot price is 1214.0, the basis rate is 32.62%, and it increased by 0.54% compared to the previous day [4]. - Thermal Coal: The spot price is 830.0, the basis rate is 3.57%, and it increased by 0.37% compared to the previous day [4]. - Ferrosilicon: The spot price is 5160, the basis rate is - 6.28%, and it decreased by - 0.27% compared to the previous day [4]. - Silicomanganese: The spot price is 5872, the basis rate is 1.63%, and it increased by 0.11% compared to the previous day [4]. - Stainless Steel: The spot price is 12750, the basis rate is 2.20%, and it decreased by - 0.41% compared to the previous day [4]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans: The spot price is 3920, the basis rate is - 5.06%, and it decreased by - 0.05% compared to the previous day [4]. - Soybean Meal: The spot price is 3000, the basis rate is - 2.31%, and it decreased by - 0.38% compared to the previous day [4]. - Rapeseed Meal: The spot price is 2620, the basis rate is 5.14%, and it increased by 0.08% compared to the previous day [4]. - Edible Oils: For different types like soybean oil, rapeseed oil, etc., the basis rates range from 2.86% to 12.98%, with changes from - 0.35% to 11.78% compared to the previous day [4]. - Palm Oil: The spot price is 8570, the basis rate is - 2.08%, and it decreased by - 0.66% compared to the previous day [4]. - Corn: The spot price is 2205, the basis rate is 0.87%, and it increased by 0.27% compared to the previous day [4]. - Corn Starch: The spot price is 2510, the basis rate is 0.12%, and it decreased by - 0.68% compared to the previous day [4]. - Apples: The spot price is 8408, the basis rate is 17.93%, and it decreased by - 2.65% compared to the previous day [4]. - Eggs: The spot price is 2900, the basis rate is - 4.61%, and it increased by 0.72% compared to the previous day [4]. - Hogs: The spot price is 12000, the basis rate is 1.18%, and it increased by 0.71% compared to the previous day [4]. - Cotton: The spot price is 14819, the basis rate is 9.85%, and it decreased by - 0.03% compared to the previous day [4]. - Sugar: The spot price is 5760, the basis rate is 4.50%, and it decreased by - 0.65% compared to the previous day [4]. Energy and Chemicals - Methanol: The spot price is 2100, the basis rate is - 0.14%, and it decreased by - 0.14% compared to the previous day [4]. - Ethanol: The spot price is 4063, the basis rate is 1.49%, and it increased by 0.10% compared to the previous day [4]. - Crude Oil: The spot price is 421.4, the basis rate is - 6.24%, and it decreased by - 0.52% compared to the previous day [4]. - Short - Fiber: The spot price is 6360, the basis rate is 2.19%, and it increased by 0.29% compared to the previous day [4]. - PVC: The spot price is 5405, the basis rate is 17.86%, and it decreased by - 0.13% compared to the previous day [4]. - Rubber: The spot price is 14800, the basis rate is - 3.83%, and it decreased by - 0.75% compared to the previous day [4]. - 20 - Numbered Rubber: The spot price is 13212, the basis rate is 6.55%, and it decreased by - 1.58% compared to the previous day [4]. - Soda Ash: The spot price is 1194, the basis rate is - 3.63%, and it increased by 0.49% compared to the previous day [4]. - Urea: The spot price is 1610, the basis rate is - 2.90%, and it decreased by - 0.18% compared to the previous day [4]. - Pulp: The spot price is 5525, the basis rate is - 0.95%, and it decreased by - 0.16% compared to the previous day [4]. - Fuel Oil: The spot price is 2742, the basis rate is 5.66%, and it decreased by - 0.08% compared to the previous day [4]. - Asphalt: The spot price is 3010, the basis rate is - 0.63%, and it increased by 0.78% compared to the previous day [4]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The spot price is 3170, the basis rate is 4.06%, and it increased by 5.05% compared to the previous day [4]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The spot price is 4498, the basis rate is 4.02%, and it increased by 0.81% compared to the previous day [4]. - PTA: The spot price is 4585, the basis rate is - 2.45%, and it decreased by - 0.84% compared to the previous day [4]. - Polypropylene: The spot price is 6820, the basis rate is 5.25%, and it decreased by - 0.33% compared to the previous day [4]. - Styrene: The spot price is 6405, the basis rate is - 0.50%, and it decreased by - 0.48% compared to the previous day [4]. - Plastic: The spot price is 7100, the basis rate is 4.14%, and it decreased by - 0.46% compared to the previous day [4]. Financial Futures - CSI 300: The spot price is 4702.1, the basis rate is 0.54%, and it increased by 0.15% compared to the previous day [4]. - SSE 50: The spot price is 3073.7, the basis rate is 0.16%, and it increased by 0.11% compared to the previous day [4]. - China Securities 500: The spot price is 7355.3, the basis rate is 1.19%, and it decreased by - 0.04% compared to the previous day [4].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The report presents a comprehensive table of basis statistics for various futures on November 14, 2025, including base prices, contract prices, basis rates, and their daily changes for multiple commodities across different sectors [4]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Categories Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Spot price is 87390, with a basis rate of - 0.14% and a daily change of - 0.21% [4]. - Aluminum: Spot price is 21920, basis rate is - 0.32%, and daily change is 0.12% [4]. - Zinc: Spot price is 22630, basis rate is - 0.11%, and daily change is 0.02% [4]. - Lead: Spot price is 17500, basis rate is - 1.02%, and daily change is 0.40% [4]. - Tin: Spot price is 296000, basis rate is - 0.24%, and daily change is - 0.06% [4]. - Nickel: Spot price is 120650, basis rate is 1.52%, and daily change is 0.22% [4]. - Industrial Silicon: Spot price is 9500, basis rate is 3.49%, and daily change is - 0.17% [4]. - Lithium Carbonate: Spot price is 84370, basis rate is - 4.52%, and daily change is - 0.68% [4]. Precious Metals - Gold: Spot price is 958.67, basis rate is - 0.27%, and daily change is - 0.11% [4]. - Silver: Spot price is 12563, basis rate is - 0.20%, and daily change is - 0.36% [4]. Ferrous Metals - Rebar: Spot price is 3139, basis rate is 5.71%, and daily change is 0.38% [4]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: Spot price is 3263, basis rate is 0.80%, and daily change is 0.03% [4]. - Iron Ore: Spot price is 821.5, basis rate is 6.34%, and daily change is 0.21% [4]. - Coke: Spot price is 1680, basis rate is - 0.35%, and daily change is - 0.43% [4]. - Coking Coal: Spot price is 1610, basis rate is 32.62%, and daily change is 0.54% [4]. - Thermal Coal: Spot price is 830, basis rate is 3.57%, and daily change is 0.37% [4]. - Ferrosilicon: Spot price is 5160, basis rate is - 6.28%, and daily change is - 0.27% [4]. - Silicomanganese: Spot price is 5872, basis rate is 1.63%, and daily change is 0.11% [4]. - Stainless Steel: Spot price is 12750, basis rate is 2.20%, and daily change is - 0.41% [4]. Building Materials - Glass: Spot price is 1110, basis rate is 5.11%, and daily change is - 0.70% [4]. Grains and Oils - Soybeans: Spot price is 3920, basis rate is - 5.06%, and daily change is - 0.05% [4]. - Soybean Meal: Spot price is 3000, basis rate is - 2.31%, and daily change is - 0.38% [4]. - Rapeseed Meal: Spot price is 2620, basis rate is 5.14%, and daily change is 0.08% [4]. - Soybean Oil: Spot price is 8560, basis rate is 2.93%, and daily change is - 0.35% [4]. - Rapeseed Oil: Spot price is 10260, basis rate is 2.86%, and daily change is 0.11% [4]. - Peanuts: Spot price is 9000, basis rate is 12.98%, and daily change is 11.78% [4]. - Palm Oil: Spot price is 8570, basis rate is - 2.08%, and daily change is - 0.66% [4]. Agricultural Products - Corn: Spot price is 2205, basis rate is 0.87%, and daily change is 0.27% [4]. - Corn Starch: Spot price is 2510, basis rate is 0.12%, and daily change is - 0.68% [4]. - Apples: Spot price is 8408, basis rate is 17.93%, and daily change is - 2.65% [4]. - Eggs: Spot price is 2900, basis rate is - 4.61%, and daily change is 0.72% [4]. - Hogs: Spot price is 12000, basis rate is 1.18%, and daily change is 0.71% [4]. - Cotton: Spot price is 14819, basis rate is 9.85%, and daily change is - 0.03% [4]. Soft Commodities - Sugar: Spot price is 5760, basis rate is 4.50%, and daily change is - 0.65% [4]. Energy and Chemicals - Methanol: Spot price is 2100, basis rate is 0.47%, and daily change is - 0.14% [4]. - Ethanol: Spot price is 4063, basis rate is 1.49%, and daily change is 0.10% [4]. - Crude Oil: Spot price is 421.4, basis rate is - 6.24%, and daily change is - 0.52% [4]. Financial Futures - CSI 300: Spot price is 4702.1, basis rate is 0.54%, and daily change is 0.15% [4]. - SSE 50: Spot price is 3073.7, basis rate is 0.16%, and daily change is 0.11% [4]. - Mid - Cap 500: Spot price is 7355.3, basis rate is 1.19%, and daily change is - 0.04% [4]. Chemicals - Short - Fiber: Spot price is 6360, basis rate is 2.19%, and daily change is 0.29% [4]. - PVC: Spot price is 5405, basis rate is 17.86%, and daily change is - 0.13% [4]. - Rubber: Spot price is 14800, basis rate is - 3.83%, and daily change is - 0.75% [4]. - 20 - Rubber: Spot price is 13212, basis rate is 6.55%, and daily change is - 1.58% [4]. - Soda Ash: Spot price is 1194, basis rate is - 3.63%, and daily change is 0.49% [4]. - Urea: Spot price is 1610, basis rate is - 2.90%, and daily change is - 0.18% [4]. - Pulp: Spot price is 5525, basis rate is - 0.95%, and daily change is - 0.16% [4]. - Fuel Oil: Spot price is 2742, basis rate is 5.66%, and daily change is - 0.08% [4]. - Asphalt: Spot price is 3010, basis rate is - 0.63%, and daily change is 0.78% [4]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Spot price is 3170, basis rate is 4.06%, and daily change is 5.05% [4]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: Spot price is 4498, basis rate is 4.02%, and daily change is 0.81% [4]. - PTA: Spot price is 4585, basis rate is - 2.45%, and daily change is - 0.84% [4]. - Polypropylene: Spot price is 6820, basis rate is 5.25%, and daily change is - 0.33% [4]. - Styrene: Spot price is 6405, basis rate is - 0.50%, and daily change is - 0.48% [4]. - Plastic: Spot price is 7100, basis rate is 4.14%, and daily change is - 0.46% [4].

Core Insights - Honeywell participated in the China International Import Expo for the eighth consecutive year, showcasing its commitment to innovation and collaboration in the Chinese market [1] - The company introduced a record number of eight new products, covering 15 core categories, highlighting the expo as a key platform for fulfilling its promise of "empowering development through innovation" [1] - Honeywell's new products focus on five critical areas: semiconductors, industrial combustion, industrial automation, smart buildings, and battery safety, addressing specific market demands in China [1] Product Highlights - New solutions for semiconductor manufacturing aim to enhance wafer production stability, precision, and yield [1] - The ThermJet-pro low-NOx burner made its debut in China, balancing high-efficiency combustion with low emissions [1] - The CCC Inside and Experion PKS integrated solution creates a high-performance control platform covering the entire lifecycle of equipment [1] - A new battery safety sensor was introduced to provide early warnings for thermal runaway risks across various battery applications [1] - Future-oriented building management solutions and the Optimizer series controllers were also showcased, enhancing operational efficiency and intelligence in building management [1] Strategic Initiatives - Honeywell signed 26 strategic cooperation intentions, demonstrating its commitment to innovation, management enhancement, and ecological collaboration [1] - The company emphasized its "Eastern service for the East" strategy, aiming to work closely with Chinese partners to create a safer, smarter, and more sustainable future [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: None - **Bearish**: Palm oil, Rapeseed oil, Soybean meal, Paper pulp - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Polysilicon, Lithium carbonate, Iron ore, Manganese silicon, Soda ash, Coking coal, Coke, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, Natural rubber, Synthetic rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short - fiber, Styrene, Urea, PE, PP, PVC, Caustic soda, PG, Container shipping European line Core Views - Short - term, market sentiment may shift from optimism to caution, and the stock index may enter an oscillating phase to accumulate momentum for the next upward movement, with strong support below due to policy and liquidity [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank interest - rate risk warnings suppress the upside [1]. - Precious metals are under short - term pressure due to tight dollar liquidity [1]. - Copper price is expected to have limited downside, while aluminum price oscillates, and alumina has a weak fundamental situation [1]. - Zinc price is expected to stay high, but chasing high should be cautious; nickel and stainless - steel prices are affected by macro factors and have different trends [1]. - Tin has long - term buying opportunities at low prices; polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and other commodities have their own oscillating or directional trends based on supply - demand and macro factors [1]. - Some agricultural products like palm oil, rapeseed oil, etc. face bearish factors, while others like sugar and cotton have complex supply - demand situations [1]. - Energy - chemical products' prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and cost, showing various trends [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - Short - term, with the release of positive factors, the stock index may oscillate to accumulate momentum for the next upward movement, and there is strong support below due to policy and liquidity [1]. Treasury Bond - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank interest - rate risk warnings suppress the upside [1]. Gold - Precious metals are under short - term pressure due to tight dollar liquidity [1]. Copper - Macro - positive sentiment is digested, and copper price may decline, but the downside is limited [1]. Aluminum - Recent industrial drivers are limited, and with the digestion of macro - positives, aluminum price oscillates [1]. Alumina - Domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, with both production and inventory increasing, and the fundamental situation is weak, putting pressure on the spot price [1]. Zinc - Market risk aversion rises, LME zinc inventory is decreasing, and zinc price is strong, but domestic over - supply requires caution when chasing high [1]. Nickel - Short - term, nickel price may be dominated by macro factors and oscillate weakly, with high inventory pressure; long - term, primary nickel over - supply persists [1]. Stainless Steel - Macro sentiment weakens, and stainless - steel futures are under pressure; short - term operations are recommended, and opportunities for selling hedges at high prices should be noted [1]. Tin - Long - term, there are opportunities to go long at low prices due to the unrepaired raw - material end and good new - quality demand expectations [1]. Polysilicon - Northwest production capacity is recovering, production in November is decreasing, and there are expectations of capacity reduction and increased terminal installation [1]. Lithium Carbonate - There are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season, and attention should be paid to upward pressure after the realization of macro sentiment [1]. Iron Ore - Near - month production is restricted, and far - month has upward potential [1]. Manganese Silicon - Direct demand is good, but high supply and inventory pressure limit price rebound [1]. Soda Ash - It follows glass, but supply - demand is average, and there is strong upward resistance [1]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal is testing support, and coke has a complex situation; short - term, single - side operations should be observed, and long - term, low - buying is recommended [1]. Palm Oil - Short - term, it faces seasonal production increase and weak exports; from November, there may be a phased rebound if exports improve [1]. Rapeseed Oil - Sino - Canadian relations and Canadian harvest put pressure on the price [1]. Cotton - Uncertainty in cotton demand exists due to the contradiction between Xinjiang's capacity expansion and reduced spinning profit; the downside is limited, but new - crop base and price may be under pressure [1]. Sugar - Short - term, there is seasonal upward momentum, but new - sugar listing may limit the rebound space [1]. Corn - Futures and spot face selling pressure, and the price may oscillate and bottom out [1]. Soybean Meal - Domestic soybean purchase and processing profit is poor, and the price may rebound to repair the profit, but supply expectations limit the rebound height [1]. Paper Pulp - The 11 - contract has pressure, and an 11 - 1 reverse spread is recommended [1]. Log - The fundamental situation has declined, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Live Pig - Short - term, futures follow the spot and turn weak [1]. Crude Oil and Fuel Oil - OPEC+ continues to increase production slightly, geopolitical hype cools down, and market sentiment eases [1]. Asphalt - Short - term supply - demand is not prominent, and the "14th Five - Year Plan" demand may be false; supply is sufficient, and profit is high [1]. Natural Rubber - Supported by raw - material cost, mid - stream inventory decreases, and the market atmosphere is positive [1]. Synthetic Rubber - Cost support weakens, supply is loose, and the price is adjusted downwards [1]. PTA and Short - fiber - The "anti - involution" policy drives the price up, and short - fiber follows the cost [1]. Ethylene Glycol - It follows the decline of crude oil, but cost support strengthens, and polyester demand is stable [1]. Styrene - Asian benzene price is weak, and styrene profit declines, with more device overhauls [1]. Urea - Export is weak, and there is cost support [1]. PE and PP - Supply pressure is high, and downstream improvement is less than expected [1]. PVC - Supply pressure is large, and cost support strengthens [1]. Caustic Soda - Production plans increase, over - concentration of overhauls decreases, and there is a risk of short - squeeze [1]. PG - International oil and gas supply is loose, and domestic spot is stable [1]. Container Shipping European Line - Macro - positive sentiment is digested, and November's shipping capacity supply is relatively loose [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | Asset Category | Rating | | --- | --- | | Gold | Bearish | | Dollar | Sideways | | US Stocks | Sideways | | A-Shares | Sideways | | Treasury Bonds | Slightly Bearish and Sideways | [31] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US government shutdown continues, and the macro data is in a vacuum. The September CPI is slightly lower than expected, supporting two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. The market has fully priced in the cuts, and the downside space for US bond yields is limited. The 10 - month Fed interest rate meeting is coming up, and the future interest rate cut path and balance - sheet reduction rhythm are the focus of market games. The domestic market is boosted by macro events and themes, deviating from the economic fundamentals in the short term [6]. - Global market risk appetite continues to recover, with most global stock markets rising. The US dollar index fluctuates at a high level, and major currencies show different trends. Global major national 10 - year treasury bond yields fluctuate. The commodity futures and spot markets show a divergent trend [8][12][17][29]. - Different asset classes are expected to show different trends next week. Gold lacks upward momentum and has a callback risk; the dollar is expected to fluctuate; US stocks are supported but volatile; A - shares are affected by top - level planning and liquidity; treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate slightly bearishly [31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Context Tracking - The US government shutdown persists, and the macro data is in a vacuum. The September CPI is slightly lower than expected, supporting two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. The market has fully priced in the cuts, and the downside space for US bond yields is limited. The upcoming 10 - month Fed interest rate meeting will focus on the future interest rate cut path and balance - sheet reduction rhythm. The short - term market is more affected by macro news, and the market volatility remains high. The sanctions on Russia by the US and Europe amplify short - term energy price fluctuations, while the marginal relaxation of Sino - US negotiations boosts market risk appetite. The domestic market is boosted by macro events and themes, deviating from the economic fundamentals in the short term. The Fourth Plenary Session's top - level planning for the technology industry supports the stock market's risk appetite, while the bond market lacks a trading mainline and shows a slightly weak and sideways trend [6]. 3.2 Global Asset Class Trends Overview 3.2.1 Equity Market - Global market risk appetite continues to recover, and most global stock markets rise. In developed markets, the S&P 500 rises 1.92%, the Nikkei 225 rises 3.61%, the South Korean KOSPI index rises 5.14%, and the German DAX index rises 1.72%. In emerging markets, the Shanghai Composite Index rises 2.88%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rises 3.62%, and the Taiwan Weighted Index rises 0.84%. The MSCI Global Index shows that emerging markets > global > developed > frontier [8][10]. 3.2.2 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index fluctuates at a high level, finally closing at 98.9, appreciating 0.39% from last week. The RMB exchange - rate index remains the same as the previous value, and the RMB appreciates slightly against the US dollar. The Mexican peso depreciates 0.46%, the Brazilian real appreciates 0.26%, the euro depreciates 0.22%, the yen depreciates 1.5%, the won depreciates 1.2%, the pound depreciates 0.86%, and the Australian dollar appreciates 0.29% [12][13]. 3.2.3 Bond Market - Global major national 10 - year treasury bond yields fluctuate. In developed countries, the US bond yield remains at 4.02%, with limited downside space; the Japanese treasury bond yield rises 3bp; the UK treasury bond yield falls 12bp; the German treasury bond yield rises 5bp. In emerging market countries, the Chinese treasury bond yield rises 2bp to 1.85%, the Brazilian treasury bond yield falls 21bp, and the Indonesian treasury bond yield rises 7bp [17][18]. 3.2.4 Commodity Market - This week, the global commodity futures and spot markets show a divergent trend, with the futures index rebounding significantly and the spot index continuing to fall. Affected by geopolitical risks, energy prices rise, with WTI crude oil rising 7.32% to $61.4 per barrel. The metal sector shows a differentiated performance, with LME copper rising 3.21% and LME aluminum rising 2.81%. The precious - metal sector continues to correct, with COMEX gold falling 3.3% and silver falling 4.38% as of Friday. The domestic commodity market shows a differentiated performance, with the energy - chemical sector > industrial products > non - ferrous metals > black metals > agricultural products > precious metals [29]. 3.3 Weekly Outlook for Asset Classes 3.3.1 Precious Metals - Precious metals correct from high levels. After the geopolitical risks do not further intensify, long - position holders take profits. Geopolitical risks decline marginally, which is negative for gold. The US government shutdown continues, dragging down the economy and the employment market. The US September core CPI slightly drops to 3%, and the inflation pressure is generally controllable. The market has fully priced in a 25bp interest rate cut in the October interest rate meeting. Short - term gold prices lack upward momentum, and there is a risk of correction. The international gold price tests the support at the $4000 mark. The actual interest rate slightly rises to 1.75%, the 10 - year US bond yield returns to 4%, and the US bond yield has limited downside space. The dollar index fluctuates at a high level, and the RMB fluctuates. After the correction of the outer - market gold price, the discount of Shanghai gold narrows. The Comex gold futures speculative data suspension is due to the government shutdown, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings slightly drop to 1047 tons, and the Shanghai gold positions are significantly reduced. The London silver spot price drops 6% to $48.5 per ounce, and the forced - buying market in the London spot market eases [32][40][47]. 3.3.2 Foreign Exchange - The market fluctuates significantly this week. The cease - fire agreement proposed by Ukraine and Europe raises the market's expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, causing a short - term plunge in safe - haven assets. However, Russia does not support a cease - fire based on the current actual control line, and the meeting between Trump and Putin is cancelled. The US September CPI is lower than expected, indicating that the inflation pressure in September is controllable, and the expectation of two interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2025 is basically determined, which boosts the market risk appetite. Sino - US trade negotiations are held in Malaysia, and it is expected that the short - term trade war will not intensify, but it is also difficult to reach a significant trade agreement. The dollar is expected to fluctuate in the short term [48]. 3.3.3 US Stocks - The US government shutdown is still deadlocked, and the market fluctuates mainly due to the progress of Sino - US negotiations and earnings data. Sino - US negotiations are tortuous, and the tension eases this week. As corporate earnings are released, the market continues to raise its profit expectations, and corporate profits expand steadily. Large technology companies will release their earnings next week, which may further boost the market. The overall view of US stocks is bullish, but attention should be paid to the increased volatility caused by corporate earnings falling short of expectations and the twists and turns in Sino - US negotiations. Cyclical sectors lead the index, and the technology sector remains strong. The market risk appetite recovers, with only the consumer staples and utilities sectors recording declines. As earnings are released, the market profit expectations continue to rise, and the expected profit growth rate for Q3 rises to 9.3%. Short - term Sino - US negotiations are tortuous, and the market is more volatile [53][65]. 3.3.4 A - Shares - This week, the average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets is 1.7975 trillion yuan, a decrease of 395.6 billion yuan compared with last week. All A - share sectors rise, with the ChiNext Index rising 8.05% and the BeiStock 50 rising 2.74%. Among the first - level industries, 27 rise and 3 fall. The leading industry is communication (+11.56%), and the lagging industry is agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-1.59%). The market ERP slightly declines, boosting the risk appetite. Attention should be paid to the rapid decline in A - share trading volume. If the trading volume continues to decline, the high - level and high - valuation situation of the stock index will lack support; if the trading volume stabilizes, the market may still be boosted by macro events and themes [66][76]. 3.3.5 Treasury Bonds - The main logic of the bond market is still unclear, mainly affected by multiple factors such as market risk appetite, Sino - US trade negotiations, and the tax period. There are many uncertain factors, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate slightly bearishly. However, the bond - market adjustment should be temporary. After November, there will be limited incremental policies, and the market risk appetite will lack a driving force to continue rising. The bond market should turn to focus on the fundamentals, and there should be a recovery market at that time. Currently, opportunities to buy on dips and play the trading range can be grasped. The 10Y - 1Y spread of treasury bonds narrows 4.91bp to 36.96bp, the 10Y - 5Y spread narrows 0.66bp to 22.52bp, and the 30Y - 10Y spread narrows 1.32bp to 36.54bp. As of the close on October 24, the settlement prices of the two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year treasury bond futures main contracts are 102.334, 105.615, 108.015, and 115.030 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.044, - 0.160, - 0.250, and - 0.700 yuan compared with last weekend. The trading volumes of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week are 76,489, 154,308, 264,330, and 179,114 lots respectively, with changes of +1958, - 1892, +4151, and - 672 lots compared with last week [77][88]. 3.4 Global Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.4.1 Overseas High - Frequency Economic Data Tracking - The GDPNow model estimates the Q3 growth rate at 3.9%, and the year - on - year growth rate of Redbook retail sales is 5%, with an average year - on - year growth rate of about 5% since the beginning of the year, indicating that the US economy maintains resilience. The bank reserve balance drops to 2.44 trillion, the TGA account balance rises to 905.1 billion, and the overnight reverse - repurchase scale drops to 2.44 billion, indicating that the market liquidity continues to tighten. The corporate - bond credit spread slightly declines, and the short - term credit risk decreases. The September CPI is slightly lower than expected, and the market fully prices in a 25bp interest rate cut in October and a further interest rate cut in December. The September CPI data shows that the year - on - year growth rate is 3%, the month - on - month growth rate is 0.3%, the core CPI year - on - year slightly drops to 3%, and the month - on - month growth rate drops to 0.2%, slightly lower than expected. This report consolidates the possibility of a 25bp interest rate cut next week and supports further interest rate cuts this year. However, the inflation risks in categories more affected by tariffs still exist [90][108][117]. 3.4.2 Domestic High - Frequency Economic Data Tracking - The real - estate transaction remains weak, with both volume and price continuing to decline. The Fourth Plenary Session has relatively few arrangements for real estate, and the market's expectation of stable housing prices weakens again. The financial data mostly shows a slightly weak performance, and the active financing demand of the real - economy sector is still weak. The M1 growth rate is high, but this rise does not represent an improvement in the real economy. The PPI year - on - year growth rate in September is - 2.3%, and the CPI year - on - year growth rate is - 0.3%. Although the PPI year - on - year reading rebounds, the momentum for price increases on a month - on - month basis is still insufficient, and it is difficult for upstream price increases to be transmitted to the terminal. China's exports in September (in US dollars) increase 8.3% year - on - year, and imports increase 7.4% year - on - year. The increase in import growth may be related to China's capacity upgrade and the increased demand for imported mechanical and electrical products and high - tech products [118][142][149][159]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the collaboration between the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) and the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) in various fields, with a signed agreement amounting to over 7 billion yuan [1][5]. - The cooperation involves 20 central enterprises and 21 research institutions under CAS, focusing on 40 key projects, including applications in ultra-large diameter shield machine main drive shaft and synthetic biology [1][5]. - In the past two years, SASAC and CAS have signed over 600 cooperation agreements, with total project funding nearing 10 billion yuan [5]. Group 2 - SASAC Director Zhang Yuzhuo stated that 58 central enterprises have established 97 original technology sources, highlighting the synergy between CAS's strong innovation capabilities and the market advantages of central enterprises [3]. - Future collaboration will focus on long-cycle, systematic, and integrated innovation efforts, emphasizing the importance of long-term planning and multi-field coordination [5]. - The collaboration will also address key national strategic areas such as integrated circuits, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, quantum technology, brain-machine interfaces, and nuclear fusion [6].

Core Insights - The release of the "Shandong Provincial State-owned Assets and Enterprises Social Responsibility Blue Book (2024)" highlights the commitment of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in Shandong to social responsibility and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) practices [2][3] ESG Leadership and Reporting - Nearly half of the provincial SOEs have established ESG leadership bodies, with 90.63% having designated ESG departments and 81.25% setting specific ESG work requirements [2] - 51.52% of SOEs have transitioned their social responsibility reports to ESG reports, marking a significant increase of 45.46 percentage points from 2023 [2] Economic Performance - In 2024, the total assets of provincial SOEs reached 52,804.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.1%, while operating revenue was 25,037.4 billion yuan, up 6.7% [4] - The industrial output value of SOEs was 9,454.2 billion yuan, with sales value at 9,602.7 billion yuan, showing increases of 18% and 17.7% respectively [4] Green Development Initiatives - Over 90% of provincial SOEs have implemented "dual carbon" strategies, with energy consumption decreasing by 4.8% and carbon emissions by 2% year-on-year [3] - Key projects include the construction of the country's first zero-carbon expressway and the establishment of a hydrogen energy port with a clean energy usage rate of 63% [3] Rural Revitalization Efforts - 30 provincial SOEs have partnered with 54 counties to support rural revitalization, investing approximately 21.8 billion yuan in 367 projects since 2022 [4] - The focus on tangible investments demonstrates a commitment to innovative pathways and significant outcomes in rural development [4] Employment and Social Contributions - In 2024, provincial SOEs donated 142 million yuan, a 6% increase from the previous year, and hired 22,100 employees, with 65% being recent graduates [4] - The ongoing contributions of SOEs are positioned as stabilizing forces in the economy, supporting high-quality development across the province [4][5]

Market Overview - As of October 14, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3865.23 points, down 24.27 points, a decline of 0.62% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12895.11 points, down 336.36 points, a decline of 2.54% [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2955.98 points, down 122.78 points, a decline of 3.99% [1] Trading Activity - A total of 73 A-shares had a turnover rate exceeding 20% on the same day, indicating significant trading activity [1] - Notable stocks with high turnover rates included: - Beifang Changlong (301357) with a turnover rate of 58.43% and a closing price of 157.90 CNY, down 0.18% [1] - Lihexing (301013) with a turnover rate of 54.39% and a closing price of 39.90 CNY, up 5.28% [1] - Lanfeng Biochemical (002513) with a turnover rate of 52.57% and a closing price of 8.50 CNY, down 8.21% [1] Notable Stocks - Other stocks with significant turnover rates included: - Yunhan Xincheng (301563) at 46.97% turnover, closing at 137.50 CNY, down 7.41% [1] - Hezhuan Intelligent (603011) at 43.36% turnover, closing at 27.68 CNY, up 5.81% [1] - China Ruilin (603257) at 42.75% turnover, closing at 74.02 CNY, down 1.84% [1] Summary of Turnover Rates - The report provides a detailed list of stocks with their respective turnover rates, closing prices, and percentage changes, highlighting the volatility and trading interest in the market [1][2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil as the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamental factors will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, expect the fundamental situation to gradually improve, and suggest paying attention to long - position opportunities at low prices and 1 - 5 positive spread opportunities [4] - For urea, due to weak demand and high inventory, the price is expected to move within a range, and it is recommended to consider long - position opportunities at low prices [6] - For rubber, maintain a long - term bullish view, and suggest waiting and seeing in the short term as it follows the trend of industrial products [11] - For PVC, due to strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, it is recommended to consider short - position opportunities at high prices, but beware of short - covering rallies [13] - For pure benzene and styrene, it is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices, and the styrene price may rebound when the inventory drawdown inflection point appears [16] - For polyethylene, expect the price to oscillate upwards in the long term, and suggest waiting and seeing in the short term [18] - For polypropylene, due to high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, it is recommended to wait and see [19] - For PX, due to lack of upward drivers, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the subsequent improvement in the terminal market [22] - For PTA, due to high unexpected maintenance and weak long - term outlook, it is recommended to wait and see [23] - For ethylene glycol, due to high supply and expected inventory build - up in the fourth quarter, it is recommended to go short at high prices, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [24] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 5.60 yuan/barrel, or 1.15%, to 493.60 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil rose 8.00 yuan/ton, or 0.29%, to 2795.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 42.00 yuan/ton, or 1.25%, to 3395.00 yuan/ton [1] - **Data**: In the weekly data of Fujeirah Port's oil products, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.94 million barrels to 6.07 million barrels, a 24.26% decrease; diesel inventory decreased by 0.18 million barrels to 1.82 million barrels, an 8.79% decrease; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.67 million barrels to 6.32 million barrels, a 9.58% decrease; total refined oil inventory decreased by 2.79 million barrels to 14.21 million barrels, a 16.41% decrease [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 16, the 01 contract fell 21 yuan/ton to 2375 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 3 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 83 [4] - **Fundamentals**: The high - inventory pattern at ports remains unchanged, and the market structure is still weak, but most of the negative factors have been priced in. Supply is sufficient, and demand is expected to improve marginally. The inventory at ports has reached a new high, while the inventory of inland enterprises is relatively low [4] - **Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities at low prices and 1 - 5 positive spread opportunities [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 16, the 01 contract rose 3 yuan/ton to 1686 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 46 [6] - **Fundamentals**: Domestic enterprise inventory is slowly rising, and the overall inventory level is high. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and compound fertilizer production has rebounded but is still in the seasonal decline stage. Demand is weak, and exports provide limited support [6] - **Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities at low prices [6] Rubber - **Supply**: The expected rainfall in Thailand in the next 7 days is decreasing, reducing the positive supply factors [8] - **Market Sentiment**: Bulls believe in limited rubber production growth, seasonal price increases, and improved demand in China; bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal weak demand, and less - than - expected supply benefits [9] - **Industry Conditions**: As of September 11, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong increased both week - on - week and year - on - year, while the operating rate of semi - steel tires increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year. The export expectation has declined. As of September 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased [10] - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was at 15100 (0) yuan, STR20 was at 1865 (+10) dollars, and STR20 mixed was at 1865 (0) dollars [11] - **Strategy**: Adopt a long - term bullish view and wait and see in the short term [11] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 39 yuan to 4960 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4790 (+50) yuan/ton, the basis was - 170 (+11) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 301 (+2) yuan/ton [13] - **Cost**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai increased, the price of semi - coke remained unchanged, the price of ethylene remained unchanged, and the price of caustic soda decreased [13] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall operating rate increased, and the downstream operating rate also increased. Factory inventory decreased, while social inventory increased. Enterprises' comprehensive profits are at a high level for the year, and the valuation pressure is large [13] - **Strategy**: Consider short - position opportunities at high prices, but beware of short - covering rallies [13] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices rose, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level for the same period, with significant upward correction potential [15][16] - **Fundamentals**: The cost - side pure benzene production is fluctuating moderately, and the supply is still abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has increased, and the benzene - ethylene production has been continuously increasing. The port inventory of benzene - ethylene has been significantly decreasing, and the demand - side three - S overall operating rate is fluctuating downward [16] - **Strategy**: Go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [16] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and cost support remains [18] - **Supply and Demand**: There are only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity left. The overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the demand - side agricultural film raw material procurement has started. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven price decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [18] - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the short term [18] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The supply - side still has 1.45 million tons of planned production capacity, and the pressure is high [19] - **Supply and Demand**: The demand - side downstream operating rate has rebounded from a seasonal low. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions [19] - **Strategy**: Wait and see [19] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 10 yuan to 6762 yuan, and the PX CFR price fell 2 dollars to 834 dollars. The basis was 66 yuan (- 29), and the 11 - 1 spread was 42 yuan (- 4) [21] - **Supply**: The operating rate in China and Asia has increased. Some domestic and overseas plants have increased production or restarted [21] - **Demand**: The PTA operating rate has increased, and some plants have restarted [21] - **Inventory**: The inventory decreased month - on - month at the end of July [21] - **Valuation**: The PXN is 228 dollars (- 6), and the naphtha cracking spread is 114 dollars (+6) [21] - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the subsequent improvement in the terminal market [22] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 16 yuan to 4688 yuan, the East China spot price rose 10 yuan to 4610 yuan, the basis was - 80 yuan (0), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 46 yuan (- 2) [23] - **Supply**: The operating rate increased, and some plants restarted. Unexpected maintenance is still high, and the de - stocking pattern continues [23] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the terminal draw - texturing and weaving operating rates remained unchanged [23] - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased in early September [23] - **Valuation**: The spot processing fee and the futures processing fee both increased [23] - **Strategy**: Wait and see [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 16 yuan to 4272 yuan, the East China spot price rose 7 yuan to 4385 yuan, the basis was 91 yuan (- 11), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 50 yuan (- 5) [24] - **Supply**: The overall operating rate increased, with the synthetic gas - based operating rate increasing significantly. Some domestic and overseas plants had production changes [24] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the terminal draw - texturing and weaving operating rates remained unchanged [24] - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased, and the import arrival forecast is 94,000 tons [24] - **Valuation**: The profit of naphtha - based production is - 645 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production is - 792 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production is 812 yuan [24] - **Strategy**: Go short at high prices, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [24]

Core Insights - The article highlights the addition of 12 new "Lighthouse Factories" to the Global Lighthouse Network, bringing the total membership to 201, showcasing excellence in manufacturing across seven countries [2][3]. - The selection criteria for the new members have been optimized to focus on five core areas: customer centricity, productivity, supply chain resilience, sustainability, and talent development, indicating a shift towards innovative practices in these domains [2][3]. - The newly recognized "Lighthouse Factories" have demonstrated significant improvements, with an average labor productivity increase of 40% and a 48% reduction in delivery cycles, showcasing the effectiveness of digital technologies in addressing complex challenges [2][3]. Focus Areas of New Lighthouse Factories - The new "Lighthouse Factories" are concentrating on three main directions: establishing highly interconnected smart operations, deploying AI for collaborative innovation, and significantly enhancing employee skills, which are essential for maintaining competitive advantage in a volatile global environment [3]. - These factories not only showcase impactful application scenarios but also highlight the capability to scale and implement multiple use cases simultaneously [3]. Performance in Key Areas - In the customer centricity domain, the recognized factories leverage technology to enhance design and procurement processes, optimizing production batches, delivery cycles, product costs, and performance, ultimately achieving industry-leading speed to market and customization capabilities [7]. - In the productivity domain, the awarded factories have achieved remarkable results through technology-driven transformations, enhancing asset utilization, empowering employees, and optimizing resource management, leading to excellence in both cost and quality [7]. Overview of the Global Lighthouse Network - The Global Lighthouse Network is a global initiative by the World Economic Forum, co-founded with McKinsey & Company, aimed at shaping the future of global manufacturing through collaboration among industry leaders [7]. - Members of the network are selected by an independent expert review panel, and they are recognized for their measurable positive impacts on productivity, supply chain resilience, customer experience, sustainability, and talent development [7].