出海 兴业证券主要观点如下： 周期 "反内卷"优化供给秩序，部分推进行业自律/盈利底部的子行业有望迎来修复，关注有机硅、PTA、涤纶 长丝、己内酰胺、氨纶、纯碱、PVC、草甘膦、尿素。当前化工行业中，多个盈利承压的子行业，如有 机硅、PTA、己内酰胺等正逐步开启行业自律以求盈利修复，后续随相关控价、减产措施落地，相关企 业业绩有望改善。其他部分产品价格、价差周期底部震荡的子行业亦有望在行业潜在自律以及自身供需 修复的推动下迎来盈利改善。 农药 去库周期告一段落，景气有望触底回升，创制能力将成为我国农药行业的未来竞争要素。持续去库存使 得2025年全球农药渠道库存趋近合理水平，部分品种率先提价，周期修复信号初现。未来两年将转入去 产能阶段，拥有成本优势和市场渠道的农药企业强者恒强，行业集中度以及头部企业的定价权将进一步 提升。同时，国内企业在创制农药的研发、生产及市场推广能力方面持续取得显著进步，领先企业有望 沿着微笑曲线实现高附加值升级。 兴业证券发布研报称，2026年化工行业将迎来周期复苏与产业升级的双重机遇。化工品底部区间运行已 达三年，行业在建工程增速持续下滑，新产能投放接近尾声。展望2026年，"十五 ...

国海证券指出，反内卷有望重估中国化工行业，后续措施有望使全球化工行业产能扩张大幅放缓。中国 化工行业具有充沛的经营活动现金流量净额，一旦扩张放缓，潜在股息率将大幅提升，有望实现从吞金 兽到摇钱树的转变；同时，供给端的改变将带来景气度的止跌回升，化工标的有望兼具高弹性和高股息 的优势。重点关注石油化工、煤化工、有机硅、磷化工、草甘膦等。 每日经济新闻 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行业分 布来看，基础化工行业占比为60.39%，石油石化行业占比为32.71%。政策针对化工行业的"反内卷"措 施持续加码，成为板块走强的核心支撑。 截至12月4日9点52分，石化ETF（159731）涨0.36%。持仓股藏格矿业、金发科技、中国石油等涨幅居 前。从资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF连续9个交易日获得资金净流入，合计"吸金"2550万元。石化ETF 最新份额达2.42亿份，最新规模2.02亿元，均创成立以来新高。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 11.699 billion yuan for the third quarter of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.11%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 71 million yuan, down 46.21% year-on-year. However, the third quarter alone saw a revenue of 3.641 billion yuan, an increase of 8.97% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.3 million yuan, up 276.65% year-on-year [1][8] - The company is facing pressure on its performance due to low sales prices of glyphosate and silicone products, but it is actively working on cost reduction and efficiency improvement. The stability and utilization rate of its basic facilities are at a high level [8] - The company is experiencing a recovery in glyphosate prices due to improved supply and demand dynamics, with the average market price for glyphosate at 24,400 yuan per ton, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.43% [8] - The demand for silicone products continues to grow, with the company maintaining a terminal conversion rate of over 45% and offering over 3,000 types of terminal products across various industries [8] Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 14.631 billion yuan in 2023 to 18.446 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9% [3][14] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase significantly from 140 million yuan in 2023 to 727 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 356% in 2025 [3][14] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.10 yuan in 2023 to 0.54 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios decreasing from 96.4 to 18.6 over the same period [3][14] Stock Performance - The company's stock has shown a performance of -2% over the past month, 36% over the past six months, and 16% over the past year [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current market's main trend revolves around computing power and electricity, and short - term policy information during festivals and weeks does not reverse the market trend. A marginal loosening of monetary policy expectations in economies like the US and Japan may extend the market bubble and boost the prices of gold and resource - related products while raising inflation expectations [3][46] - Due to the structured nature of the equity market, there are also structured characteristics in convertible bond parity and valuation. In investment strategies, the controllability of drawdown is prioritized, followed by upward elasticity, focusing on definite directions of performance improvement or valuation repair [3][46] - In the extreme market on Friday, some recommended targets from September 22 - 26 still provided hedging space, and overall, their performance was acceptable [3][47] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Weekly Market Review 1.1 Equity Market: Overall Rise with Most Industries Gaining - From September 29 to October 10, the equity market generally rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.80%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.11%, the CSI 300 up 1.47%, while the ChiNext Index fell 1.21%. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased by about 855.25 billion yuan to 23805.86 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 3.73% [9][12] - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 24 industries rose, with 11 industries rising more than 2%. The top - performing industries were non - ferrous metals (up 11.89%), steel (up 7.89%), basic chemicals (up 4.62%), building decoration (up 4.30%), and building materials (up 4.10%) [17] 1.2 Convertible Bond Market: Overall Rise with Most Industries Gaining - From September 29 to October 10, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.58%. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 17 industries rose, with one industry rising more than 2%. The top - performing industries were beauty care (up 2.12%), environmental protection (up 1.81%), coal (up 1.71%), non - ferrous metals (up 1.25%), and basic chemicals (up 1.15%) [21] - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 1057.27 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 75.66 billion yuan, a month - on - month decline of 6.68%. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of trading volume were Guanzhong Convertible Bond, Jize Convertible Bond, etc. [21] - The overall conversion premium rate of the market gradually recovered, with an average daily conversion premium rate of 39.22%, an increase of 0.60 pcts compared to the previous period. There were different changes in conversion premium rates and conversion parities in different price, parity, and industry ranges [25][36][37] 1.3 Comparison of Stock and Bond Market Sentiments - From September 29 to October 10, the weekly weighted average and median increases of the convertible bond and underlying stock markets were positive, and the underlying stocks had a larger weekly increase. The trading volume of the convertible bond market decreased by 27.72% month - on - month, at the 51.00% quantile level since 2022, while that of the underlying stock market decreased by 22.26%, at the 92.50% quantile level [41] - Overall, the trading sentiment in the convertible bond market was better during this period, but there were differences on different trading days [41][42][44] 2. Outlook and Investment Strategies for the Future - Continue to be cautious about performance and valuation, and be sensitive to external disturbances such as tariff and non - tariff barriers and the reconstruction of the Fed's monetary policy framework [3][46] - Add several balanced chemical targets for reference, including Xingfa Group/Xingfa Convertible Bond, Hebang Biotech/Hebang Convertible Bond, and Kaisheng New Materials/Kaisheng Convertible Bond. The first two are leading companies in the glyphosate industry, which is in the middle - early stage of a "small - cycle recovery" [2][47][48] - The top ten convertible bonds with the greatest potential for parity premium rate repair next week are Liqun Convertible Bond, Meijin Convertible Bond, etc. [4][50][51]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the significant price increases in synthetic ammonia, lithium battery electrolytes, aniline, and anhydrous hydrofluoric acid, while other products like natural gas and sulfuric acid experienced notable declines [1][2][3] - As of September 26, Brent crude oil prices reached $70.13 per barrel, up 5.17% from the previous week, while WTI crude oil prices were at $65.72 per barrel, up 4.85% [1][3] - The report anticipates that the central value of international oil prices will stabilize between $65 and $70 by 2025 [1][3] Group 2 - The report identifies key investment opportunities in sectors such as glyphosate, fertilizers, import substitution, domestic demand, and high-dividend assets [4] - It suggests focusing on the glyphosate industry, which is showing signs of recovery with decreasing inventory and rising prices, recommending companies like Jiangshan Co., Xinfeng Group, and Yangnong Chemical [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic chemical fertilizer industries, particularly nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, which are expected to maintain stable demand, recommending companies like Hualu Hengsheng and China Heart Link Fertilizer [4] Group 3 - The chemical industry is currently experiencing mixed performance, with some sectors like lubricants exceeding expectations, while overall industry performance remains weak due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [3][4] - The report highlights the potential for growth in the lubricating oil additive sector and suggests companies with strong competitive positions and growth potential, such as Ruifeng New Materials and Baofeng Energy [4] - The report also notes that the three major oil companies in China are expected to remain attractive due to their high asset quality and dividend yields in the context of rising international oil prices [4]

Company Overview - The company is a dual leader in glyphosate and silicone, established in 1965, with glyphosate technology introduced in 1987 and entry into the silicone sector in 1997, forming a dual main business model of crop protection and silicon-based materials [1] - The company has an annual production capacity of 80,000 tons for glyphosate, 550,000 tons for silicone monomers, and a total capacity of 300,000 tons for industrial silicon, with a focus on expanding into the new energy sector [1] - The company is currently in a phase of industry cycle bottoming, poised for significant profit elasticity upon improvements in supply-demand dynamics or changes in competitive behavior [1] Silicone Industry - The expansion cycle for silicone is nearing its end, with medium to long-term prospects for improvement driven by global economic recovery and strong growth in overseas market demand [2] - China's silicone export demand has shown an upward trend, supported by both traditional and emerging sectors, with robust growth in new energy vehicles and photovoltaics driving continuous demand for silicone [2] - The domestic silicone industry is entering the tail end of the capacity expansion cycle, with limited new capacity expected in the future, leading to a gradual alleviation of supply-side pressures [2] Glyphosate Market - Glyphosate is the largest herbicide in the global market, primarily used on genetically modified crops, with stable growth in the planting area of such crops providing rigid support for glyphosate demand [3] - China's glyphosate export volume is expected to rebound in 2024, with significant future demand growth anticipated as genetically modified crops are further promoted [3] - As a major producer of glyphosate, China accounts for over 70% of global production capacity, with a high industry concentration, although the growth rate of production capacity has slowed in recent years [3] Investment Outlook - The company is rated as a "buy" due to its leadership in glyphosate and silicone, with the silicone expansion cycle nearing its end and a potential bottom recovery in market conditions [4] - The demand for silicone terminal materials is driven by emerging applications, and high-end replacements are accelerating [4] - The stable supply-demand dynamics in glyphosate, along with high industry concentration and significant price elasticity, are expected to lead to a rebound in product market conditions, positively impacting the company's performance [4] - Projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 450 million, 750 million, and 1.11 billion yuan respectively [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports indicates that the recent "anti-involution" policies are beneficial in curbing low-level repetitive construction in the chemical industry and are actively promoting a shift from homogeneous price wars to high-quality development [1][3] - The chemical industry is expected to see a recovery in its prosperity, with a focus on the revival of terminal product demand, increasing industry concentration, and investment opportunities in segments with industrial moats and potential cyclical rebounds, such as refining, ethylene, polyester filament, PVC, organic silicon, battery materials, glyphosate, and soda ash [1][2] Group 2 - The chemical industry has faced significant pressure since 2022 due to demand contraction and supply shocks, with the CCPI continuing to decline by 5.57% from early 2025 to July 24, 2025 [2] - From January to May 2025, the revenue of the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry grew by 2.10% year-on-year, while total profits decreased by 4.70% [2] - The industry's capacity utilization rate was 71.90% in the second quarter of 2025, down by 1.60 percentage points from the first quarter [2] - The capital expenditure in the large chemical sector has significantly declined, with the capital expenditure growth rate for the oil and petrochemical/basic chemical sectors turning negative at -6.6% and -15.0%, respectively [2] Group 3 - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to reshape the petrochemical industry landscape, addressing the pressures of overcapacity and homogeneous competition [3] - Refining is experiencing a decline in operating rates due to demand downturn and electrification, with potential policy measures to reduce inefficient capacity and encourage integrated development [3] - The ethylene sector faces oversupply and competition, but controlling production and improving quality could alleviate supply-demand imbalances [3] Group 4 - In the battery materials sector, rapid capacity expansion amid growing demand has led to significant supply pressure, but "anti-involution" policies may guide healthier industry development [4] - The organic silicon industry is nearing the end of its capacity expansion phase, with recent supply disruptions and sustained demand growth expected to ease short-term supply pressures [4] - The "anti-involution" policies are anticipated to improve the supply landscape in the soda ash sector by accelerating the exit of outdated processes and capacities [4]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices experienced narrow fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.08%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.04%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.92% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1,145.9 billion yuan, an increase of 7.1 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 3,800 stocks declined across the two markets [1] Sector Performance - The CRO (Contract Research Organization), PET copper foil, and semiconductor sectors showed gains, while the glyphosate and insurance sectors experienced adjustments [1] - The CRO sector saw a significant rise, with Aoxiang Pharmaceutical (603229) and Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical (603456) hitting the daily limit, and Yaoshi Technology (300725) increasing by over 17% [1] - The PET copper foil sector also performed well, with Fangbang Co. hitting the daily limit and Woge Optoelectronics (603773) also reaching the daily limit, while the semiconductor sector saw Dongxin Co. hitting the daily limit [1] - The glyphosate sector declined across the board, with no stocks showing an increase [1] - The insurance sector adjusted, with Xinhua Insurance (601336) and China Pacific Insurance (601319) both dropping by over 1% [1]

Market Overview - A-shares continue to rise steadily, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high of 3600 points and the Shenzhen Component Index surpassing 11000 points, both marking year-to-date highs [1] - Weekly trading volume surged to 9.24 trillion yuan, the highest in five months [1] Financing and Fund Flows - Net financing purchases exceeded 39.2 billion yuan for the week, marking the second-highest this year and the fifth consecutive week of over 10 billion yuan in net purchases [2] - The financing balance has surpassed 1.9 trillion yuan for the first time in nearly four months [2] - The machinery, non-ferrous metals, and pharmaceutical industries each received over 4 billion yuan in net financing purchases, while sectors like oil and petrochemicals saw slight net selling [2] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector attracted over 32 billion yuan in net inflows, with machinery, basic chemicals, and construction decoration also receiving significant inflows [2] - Public funds reported an 85.8% equity position in stock holdings by the end of Q2, a 0.5 percentage point increase from Q1 [2] Future Market Outlook - Cinda Securities anticipates a potential market breakthrough in the second half of 2025, similar to the second half of 2014, driven by economic or policy catalysts [3] - Huatai Securities notes a shift towards large-cap growth stocks, with several "anti-involution" sectors showing low valuations and potential for price increases [3] Glyphosate Market Dynamics - The glyphosate sector remains strong, with prices rising continuously since May, currently around 26,000 yuan per ton, up over 9% since late June [4] - Bayer's potential exit from the U.S. glyphosate market due to ongoing lawsuits could reshape global supply dynamics [4] - Demand for glyphosate is expected to increase, particularly in South America, as planting areas for soybeans and corn are projected to grow [4] AI in Healthcare - The AI healthcare sector has seen significant growth, with the index reaching historical highs and several companies reporting over 300% gains year-to-date [6] - The Chinese AI+ healthcare market is projected to reach 315.7 billion yuan by 2033, with a compound annual growth rate of 43.1% [6] - Major hospitals are accelerating digital transformation, and the introduction of AI applications is expected to enhance service offerings and create new functionalities [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the chemical industry [11] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing "involution" in the chemical industry, with multiple government meetings in 2024 highlighting the need to combat "malicious competition" and promote product quality [6][16] - The focus is on identifying potential investment opportunities within the chemical sector that can benefit from the government's "anti-involution" policies [17] Summary by Sections Why Focus on Chemical Industry Investment Opportunities? - The report outlines the government's commitment to addressing "involution" through various meetings and policy announcements, including the emphasis on supply-side structural reforms and the need for industry self-discipline [6][16] - The report suggests that the chemical industry can find opportunities under the current "anti-involution" policies, particularly through the identification of sectors with stable supply-demand dynamics [17] Which Sub-industries May Benefit from Anti-involution? - The report identifies several sub-industries likely to benefit from the anti-involution policies, including: 1. Comprehensive Chain: Chromium salts, caustic soda, industrial silicon, organic silicon 2. Agricultural Chain: Glyphosate, urea, methanol, sucralose/aspartame, MSG, lysine 3. Real Estate Chain: PVC, soda ash, titanium dioxide, MDI/TDI 4. Electronics Chain: Photoinitiators, refrigerants R134a/R32 5. Textile Chain: Dyes, viscose staple fiber, spandex, viscose filament, polyester filament 6. Automotive Chain: Polyester industrial yarn [7][8][20] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sub-industries that meet specific criteria such as slowing capacity growth, high operating rates, high concentration, minimal cost differences among leading companies, and products at the bottom of the price cycle [8][9] - Key sub-industries to watch include organic silicon, polyester filament, photoinitiators, glyphosate, industrial silicon, and MSG/amino acids, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment [9][29]