工业经济延续稳健增长态势。1—10月，全省规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.8%，工业生产韧性持 续显现。10月当月，规上工业增加值同比增长5.8%，其中高端制造领域表现亮眼：装备制造业、高技 术制造业、数字核心产品制造业分别增长8.0%、11.7%、9.4%，增速高于整体水平；计算机通信和其他 电子设备制造业、铁路船舶航空航天和其他运输设备制造业分别实现12.3%、18.1%的增长，彰显江苏 工业转型升级的坚实成效。 记者11月20日从省统计局获悉，今年以来全省坚守稳中求进工作总基调，持续加力稳就业、稳企 业、稳市场、稳预期，推动各项宏观政策落地见效，前10月经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，工业、消 费、服务业等关键领域呈现诸多亮点。 消费市场持续回暖，内需潜力稳步释放。1—10月，全省社会消费品零售总额达38816.8亿元，同比 增长4.0%。10月当月，限额以上家用电器和音像器材类商品零售额同比增长7.4%，计算机及其配套产 品类更是增长48%，升级类、数码类消费需求旺盛。从累计数据看，1—10月全省限额以上批发业、零 售业销售额分别增长5.1%、7.6%，限额以上住宿业、餐饮业营业额分别增长2.7%、5.1% ...

Core Insights - The number and quality of merger and acquisition reviews by the State Administration for Market Regulation have increased in the first three quarters of the year, with a total of 528 cases concluded, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.8% [1] Group 1: Review Statistics - A total of 514 cases were unconditionally approved, making it the dominant outcome, while 4 cases were conditionally approved and 1 case was prohibited [1] - The manufacturing sector was particularly active, with 182 cases, accounting for approximately 35.4% of the total [1] - The total transaction amount for unconditionally approved mergers exceeded 2.05 trillion yuan, with 158 cases between 100 million and 1 billion yuan, representing 30.7% [1] Group 2: Industry and Transaction Types - The automotive manufacturing sector saw over 60% of concentration cases involving parts and components manufacturing, indicating a trend towards deeper integration within the industry [1] - Horizontal concentration cases involving competitors accounted for 295 cases, approximately 57.4%, while vertical concentration cases involving upstream and downstream enterprises accounted for 213 cases, about 41.4% [2] - Domestic enterprises were highly active, with 308 cases among them, making up nearly 60% of the total, while foreign enterprises were involved in 218 cases, exceeding 40% [1][2] Group 3: Review Efficiency - Most cases were concluded within the preliminary review stage (within 30 days), with 457 cases, approximately 88.9% of the total [2] - In the decision types of case reviews, 441 cases were concluded without further review during the preliminary stage, accounting for 85.8% [2] - The concentration cases involved enterprises from over 30 countries and regions, with significant participation from Japan, the United States, the United Kingdom, Singapore, and France [2]

Group 1: Electric Vehicle Industry - In the first ten months of the year, the production of new energy vehicles in Beijing increased by 150% year-on-year [1] - The production of lithium-ion batteries also saw a significant increase of 130% during the same period [1] - The overall industrial production value in Beijing grew by 6.9%, with the automotive manufacturing sector specifically growing by 15.9% [1] Group 2: Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in Beijing (excluding rural households) grew by 7.8% in the first ten months [2] - Investment in high-tech industries surged by 48.4%, driven by projects in internet enterprise hardware and the Zhongguancun Science Park [2] - Equipment purchase investments aimed at expanding production capacity increased by 73.7%, accounting for 30.2% of total fixed asset investment [2] Group 3: Retail Sector Performance - Retail sales of certain upgraded consumer goods showed positive trends, with jewelry sales increasing by 41.2%, cosmetics by 10.8%, and home appliances by 3.4% [2] - The growth rates for these categories improved compared to the previous three quarters [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the "14th Five-Year Plan" before making investment decisions, highlighting that a deep comprehension of this strategic framework is crucial for long-term investment strategies [1] Market Review - The "barbell strategy" remains effective, with technology growth and gold showing inverse performance, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2] - The performance of the A-share market reflects a transition from a defensive to a more aggressive investment approach, with concerns about economic transformation and potential tech bubbles [2] Demand Shortage - The "14th Five-Year Plan" addresses the current economic challenges, particularly the insufficient domestic demand, which is evident in investment, consumption, and real estate sectors [5] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with manufacturing investment growth slowing to 4.0% [5] - Social retail sales grew by only 4.5% year-on-year, below GDP growth, indicating weak consumer momentum [5] - Real estate investment fell by 13.9% year-on-year, with a significant amount of unsold housing inventory [5][6] Structural Rewards - Emerging industries are experiencing a rebound in profitability, with industrial enterprise profit growth reaching 21.6% in September 2025 [7] - Factors driving this growth include easing price pressures, demand recovery in key sectors like automotive and computing, and favorable policy measures [8] - High-tech manufacturing profits grew by 26.8%, indicating a shift towards more advanced production capabilities [9] Opportunities in Traditional Industries - The "14th Five-Year Plan" redefines traditional industries as foundational to the manufacturing sector, emphasizing quality improvement and reasonable growth [10] - Traditional industries are encouraged to undergo transformation through digitalization, green initiatives, and cluster development [10] Investment Strategy - The distinction between new and old industries is less relevant than the value proposition, with traditional industries offering attractive price points [11] - Recent market adjustments suggest a shift towards balanced allocations between new and traditional sectors, indicating a potential for recovery in traditional industries [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - In September, industrial profits showed a weak performance compared to previous years when adjusted for low base effects, with current cost rates remaining at historically high levels [2][8]. Overall Performance - In September, industrial profits continued to rise due to short-term factors such as expenses, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6 percentage points to 22.5% under low base conditions. However, on a two-year compound basis, profit growth fell by 5.3 percentage points to -5.9%, and the month-on-month profit increase was only 1.1%, significantly lower than the same period last year (11.3%) [2][8]. - The profit margin increased year-on-year, primarily driven by short-term indicators like expense ratios, which rose by 9.5 percentage points to 11.6% [2][8]. Revenue Analysis - In September, industrial revenue improved, with nominal revenue rising due to marginal improvements in the Producer Price Index (PPI). The actual revenue growth rate, adjusted for price changes, increased by 0.2 percentage points to 5.4%, contributing an additional 0.3 percentage points to the year-on-year profit growth [2][16]. - Revenue growth varied across industrial chains, with the consumer chain showing a notable increase of 2.2 percentage points to 8.1%, while the petrochemical and metallurgy chains also saw improvements [2][16]. Cost Structure - Industrial enterprises faced increasing cost pressures in September, with cost rates for the metallurgy and consumer chains at historically high levels, indicating that the effects of anti-involution policies are yet to be realized. The overall cost rate for industrial enterprises was 85.4%, remaining relatively high compared to previous years [3][22]. - The cost contribution to year-on-year profit growth decreased by 0.3 percentage points to -3.6% [3][22]. Industry Insights - Industries with significant profit improvements were primarily influenced by revenue and expenses, despite ongoing cost pressures. Notable profit recoveries were observed in the computer communication and automotive sectors, contributing 3.5 and 2.8 percentage points to overall profit, respectively [3][33]. - Other sectors such as general equipment, non-metallic products, and rubber and plastics also contributed positively to profit growth, while the beverage industry saw a significant decline in profit growth [3][33]. Future Outlook - Industrial enterprises are expected to continue facing substantial cost pressures, with the effectiveness of anti-involution policies still to be seen. The current profit pressures are largely attributed to rigid cost increases driven by downstream investment [4][48]. - Future policies aimed at stabilizing growth in sectors like construction materials and steel are anticipated to gradually alleviate cost pressures, alongside a recovery in domestic demand [4][48].

Core Viewpoint - In September, industrial profits showed a weak performance compared to previous years when adjusted for low base effects, with current cost rates remaining at historically high levels [2][8]. Overall Performance - In September, industrial profits continued to rise due to short-term factors like expenses, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6 percentage points to 22.5%. However, on a two-year compound basis, profit growth fell by 5.3 percentage points to -5.9%. Month-on-month, profits increased by only 1.1%, significantly lower than the same period last year (11.3%) [2][8]. - The profit margin continued to rise, primarily driven by short-term indicators, with a marginal increase of 9.5 percentage points to 11.6%. Other income items that previously boosted profits saw a decline in their contribution [2][8]. Revenue Analysis - Industrial revenue improved in September, with nominal revenue rising due to marginal improvements in the Producer Price Index (PPI). The actual revenue growth rate, adjusted for price changes, increased by 0.2 percentage points to 5.4%, contributing an additional 0.3 percentage points to profit growth [2][16]. - By industry chain, the consumer chain saw a significant increase in actual revenue growth, rising by 2.2 percentage points to 8.1%. The petrochemical and metallurgy chains also showed improvements, with year-on-year increases of 1.3 and 0.1 percentage points to 3% and 4.8%, respectively [2][16]. Cost Structure - Industrial enterprises faced increasing cost pressures in September, with cost rates in the metallurgy and consumer chains at historically high levels. The overall cost rate was 85.4%, reflecting a relative high compared to recent years [3][22]. - The cost contribution to year-on-year profit growth decreased by 0.3 percentage points to -3.6%. The cost rates for the metallurgy and consumer manufacturing chains were 86.5% and 83.9%, respectively, both higher than the previous year [3][22]. Industry Insights - Industries with significant profit improvements were primarily influenced by revenue and expenses, although cost pressures remained substantial. Notably, the computer communication and automotive sectors saw profit increases of 3.5 and 2.8 percentage points to 4.5% and 2.2%, respectively [3][33]. - Other contributing sectors included general equipment, non-metallic products, and rubber and plastics, which collectively boosted overall profits. However, the automotive and computer communication sectors experienced year-on-year increases in operating costs of 4% and 3.8%, respectively [3][33]. Future Outlook - Industrial enterprises are expected to continue facing significant cost pressures, with the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies still to be seen. The current profit pressures are largely due to rigid cost increases from downstream investments [4][48]. - Looking ahead, policies aimed at stabilizing growth in sectors like construction materials and steel have been introduced, which, along with accelerated debt repayments, may gradually alleviate cost pressures. However, attention should be paid to the potential negative impact of upstream price surges on corporate profitability [4][48]. Regular Tracking - Industrial profits have been on the rise, with both volume and price improvements noted. In September, industrial profits increased by 1.2 percentage points to 21.6%, driven by a 1.3 percentage point rise in industrial added value to 6.5% [5][51]. - Revenue growth for industrial enterprises also showed signs of recovery, particularly in the cultural, educational, and entertainment sectors, as well as in petroleum and coal processing, with significant month-on-month increases [5][65].

Core Viewpoints - In September, industrial enterprises' profits continued to rise, primarily driven by low base effects and short-term factors, but when adjusted for these factors, the profit performance was weaker than in previous years [2][8] - The cumulative revenue of industrial enterprises in September showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, while profits increased by 3.2% [7][90] Revenue - In September, nominal revenue for industrial enterprises improved, with all three major industrial chains showing revenue recovery. The Producer Price Index (PPI) marginally improved, leading to a nominal revenue increase [16][91] - The actual revenue growth rate, adjusted for price changes, rose by 0.2 percentage points to 5.4%, contributing to a 0.3 percentage point increase in profit year-on-year [16][91] Costs - Industrial enterprises faced increasing cost pressures in September, with cost rates in the metallurgical and consumer chains remaining at historically high levels. The overall cost rate was 85.4%, indicating significant cost pressure on profits [22][91] - The cost rate for the metallurgical chain was 86.5%, and for the consumer manufacturing chain, it was 83.9%, both higher than the previous year [22][91] Industry Performance - Industries such as computer communication and automotive saw significant profit recovery, contributing 3.5 and 2.8 percentage points to overall profit growth, respectively [33][92] - Despite revenue improvements in these sectors, cost pressures remained high, with operating costs for the automotive and computer communication sectors rising by 4% and 3.8%, respectively [33][92] Outlook - The cost pressures for industrial enterprises are expected to remain high, with ongoing monitoring of the "anti-involution" policy's impact on costs. The current profit pressure is largely due to rigid cost increases from downstream investments [4][48] - Future policies aimed at stabilizing growth in sectors like construction materials and steel are anticipated to gradually alleviate cost pressures, although attention should be paid to potential negative impacts from upstream price surges [4][48]

Economic Growth - Shanghai's GDP growth rate for the first three quarters is 5.5%, exceeding the national average and market expectations, with a growth rate of 5.1% in the first half of the year [1] - The economic structure adjustment and upgrading results are being realized, reflecting the proactive layout of key industries during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Industrial Development - The industrial sector in Shanghai has shown significant improvement, with the total industrial output value increasing by 5.7% year-on-year in the first three quarters, driven by the three leading industries: artificial intelligence, integrated circuits, and biomedicine, which grew by 8.5% [2] - Strategic emerging industries now account for 44.1% of Shanghai's total industrial output value, indicating a shift towards new growth engines in the industrial sector [2] Cost Reduction Initiatives - Shanghai has implemented measures to reduce costs for industrial enterprises, resulting in a reduction of over 52 billion yuan in costs through the "17 measures for cost reduction and efficiency improvement" [3] - Industrial profits in Shanghai increased by 16.3% from January to August, with a profit margin of 6.3%, indicating improved efficiency [3] Financial Sector Performance - The financial sector has seen robust growth, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange's trading volume increasing by 38.4% in the first three quarters, and the securities business turnover growing by 95.2% [4][5] - The financial industry's added value reached 696.53 billion yuan, growing by 9.8%, while the information transmission, software, and IT services sector grew by 15.5% to 527.74 billion yuan [6] Export Growth - Shanghai's exports increased by 11.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with the export of the three leading industries reaching 193.67 billion yuan, growing by 10.3% [8][9] - High-end manufacturing exports also showed strong growth, with industrial robots and aerospace equipment exports increasing by 41.6% and 39%, respectively [9][10] Consumer Market Recovery - The retail sales of consumer goods in Shanghai grew by 4.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with significant increases in July to September [11] - The tourism sector has rebounded, with 25.49 million visitors during the recent holiday period, reflecting a 19.7% increase [11] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Shanghai increased by 6% year-on-year in the first three quarters, surpassing the national average, contributing to the overall economic resilience [12]

Group 1: Industrial Growth in Beijing - In the first three quarters of this year, the output of new energy vehicles in Beijing increased by 1.5 times year-on-year [1] - The added value of strategic emerging industries and high-tech manufacturing in Beijing grew by 17.9% and 9.9% respectively [1] - The production of lithium-ion batteries, wind turbines, service robots, and CNC metal cutting machine tools also saw significant increases, with growth rates of 1.6 times, 47.1%, 39.6%, and 19.1% respectively [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The industrial added value in Beijing, calculated at comparable prices, increased by 6.5% [1] - The sales output of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 20,223.5 billion yuan, marking a growth of 6.7% [1] - The domestic sales output was 18,634.6 billion yuan, also growing by 6.7%, while the export delivery value increased by 6.0% [1] Group 3: Consumer Prices and Producer Prices - In the first three quarters, the consumer price index in Beijing decreased by 0.4%, with consumer goods prices down by 0.7% and service prices remaining stable [2] - The producer price index for industrial producers continued to decline, with a decrease of 1.8% in factory prices and a 1.7% drop in purchase prices [2]

Economic Overview - In September, the economy continued the trend of "production resilience, demand slowdown," with retail sales and real estate sales both lower than previous values[1] - The GDP growth for Q3 was 4.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from Q2, aligning with expectations and reflecting the impact of tariff shocks and domestic structural adjustments[2] Consumption and Investment - Retail sales in September grew by 3.0% year-on-year, down from 3.4% in the previous month, influenced by the depletion of prior subsidies and a high base from last year[5] - Fixed asset investment in September decreased by 8.4%, with manufacturing, broad infrastructure, narrow infrastructure, and real estate investments down by 1.9%, 8.0%, 4.7%, and 21.3% respectively, indicating a widening decline across sectors[22] Industrial Production - Industrial output in September rose by 6.5% year-on-year, up from 5.2% in August, supported by resilient exports and an additional working day due to holiday arrangements[5] - The performance of downstream industries was relatively strong, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.3%, 5.0%, and 7.1% for downstream, midstream, and upstream industries respectively[9] Risks and Policy Implications - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic policy measures, unexpected changes in international geopolitical situations, and possible measurement errors in data[29] - The necessity for further policy stimulus in Q4 is low unless significant risks arise in real estate, exports, or employment[4]