第六， 7 月行业盈利有哪些边际变化？（ 1 ）"反内卷"带动部分上游行业利润改善，原材料制造（化工、石油炼焦、黑色和有色冶炼、非金属矿制品）当月 同比增速由 6 月的 -5% 回升至 36.9% ，其中黑色冶炼和石油炼焦行业利润同比扭亏为盈，非金属矿制品和化工利润当月同比降幅大幅收窄，我们根据累 计值推算非金属矿制品 6-7 月利润当月同比分别为 -26.7% 和 -6.7% ，化工利润当月同比由 6 月的 -25.9% 回升至 -1.9% ；（ 2 ）消费品制造利润 有所好转，当月同比由 6 月的 -4.7% 回升至 -1.7% ，其中我们推算食品制造、家具利润当月同比达到两位数；（ 3 ）中国经济最活跃的部分依旧在中 游，"两新"政策红利叠加产业升级趋势，中游制造利润仍保持较快增长，其中计算机通信电子、交运设备同比分别增长 30% 和 24.8% ，统计局指出 7 月 航空航天器、集成电路、半导体专用设备、半导体分离器、生物药品制造当月利润同比增速均在 20% 以上。 广发证券 资深宏观分析师 王丹 bjwangdan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 工业企业营收呈"磨底"特征。 ...

Group 1: Industrial Growth - In July, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises in Zhejiang Province increased by 5.3% year-on-year, with 22 out of 37 industrial categories showing positive growth [1] - Key industries contributing to this growth include automotive (17.3%), tobacco (16.7%), computer communication electronics (15.8%), instrumentation (14.0%), and chemical raw materials (7.7%), collectively driving a 4.0 percentage point increase in industrial added value [1] - The new product output rate for large-scale industrial enterprises reached 41.9%, up by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a sustained enhancement of innovative momentum [1] Group 2: Service Sector Performance - In the first half of the year, the operating income of large-scale service enterprises (excluding wholesale, retail, accommodation, financial, and real estate sectors) was 1.75 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.7% year-on-year growth [1] - The information transmission, software, and IT service sectors saw a 12.1% increase in operating income, while leasing and business services grew by 8.4%, contributing a combined 6.9 percentage points to the overall service sector growth [1] - Emerging service industries are rapidly developing, with the digital economy core service industry, technology services, and high-tech services experiencing revenue growth of 12.5%, 12.2%, and 10.8%, respectively [1] Group 3: Investment Trends - From January to July, fixed asset investment decreased by 1.9%, but excluding real estate development, it grew by 8.0% [2] - Investment in the livelihood sector has strengthened, with infrastructure investment increasing by 8.7%, accounting for 26.8% of total investment, up by 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Equipment and tool purchases saw a significant increase of 12.4%, contributing 1.2 percentage points to overall investment growth [2] Group 4: Retail and Consumption - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 300.8 billion yuan, marking a 4.4% year-on-year increase, with commodity retail growing by 4.9% [2] - Online consumption showed strong momentum, with retail sales through public networks increasing by 11.7% [2] - Notable growth in quality of life-related consumption was observed, with retail sales of wearable smart devices, photographic equipment, home appliances, and new energy vehicles increasing significantly [2]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial enterprises' revenue in the first half of 2025 showed a slight increase of 2.5% year-on-year, compared to 2.1% in 2024, indicating a marginal improvement in performance [1][5][6]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The revenue growth exhibited a pattern of "accelerating first, then slowing down," with monthly growth rates peaking at 4.2% in March and declining to 1.0% in May and June [1][4]. - The profit of industrial enterprises decreased by 1.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, showing a slight narrowing of the decline compared to previous years [1][6][7]. - The profit structure was characterized by "increased volume, decreased prices, and declining profit margins," with a cumulative PPI decline of 2.8% [7][11]. Industry Performance - Profit growth was concentrated in sectors such as metals (non-ferrous and steel), equipment manufacturing, and certain consumer goods (tobacco, food, agricultural products), with some industries experiencing double-digit profit growth [11][14]. - Industries with significant profit declines included mining (coal and black mining), petrochemicals, and light manufacturing, attributed to commodity price adjustments and weak domestic construction demand [14][15]. Inventory and Financial Stability - Both nominal and actual inventories showed a downward trend, with nominal inventory decreasing for three consecutive months, indicating a shift towards destocking [3][17]. - The asset-liability ratio of industrial enterprises remained stable at 57.9%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points [18][19]. Future Outlook - Several favorable factors for profit growth in the second half of 2025 include a significant decrease in the base effect starting in August and potential improvements in prices and profit margins due to anti-involution measures [19].

来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 目前，浙江省新设企业和个体户保持稳步增长，截至6月末，在册经营主体数量逾1100万户，其中，在 册民营企业和个体工商户占比逾95%。上半年，规模以上工业民营企业增加值同比增长8.0%。民营企业 进出口2.24万亿元，增长8.1%，占全省进出口总值的81.9%，拉动全省进出口增长6.6个百分点。1-5月， 规模以上服务业民营企业营收增长9.4%，对规模以上服务业营收增长的贡献率达七成。 在服务业方面，上半年，服务业增加值同比增长6.0%，其中，信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业增加 值增长9.3%，交通运输、仓储和邮政业增加值增长7.2%，批发和零售业增加值增长7.9%，租赁和商务 服务业增加值增长5.9%，金融业增加值增长8.4%。1-5月，规模以上服务业企业营业收入（不包括批零 住餐、金融和房地产开发业）增长9.0%，其中，数字经济核心产业服务业营业收入增长12.4%。 此外，消费潜力持续释放，以旧换新相关商品快速增长。上半年，社会消费品零售总额18979亿元，同 比增长5.3%，增速比一季度加快0.8个百分点。其中，网上销售支撑有力，即时零售等新业态兴起。上 半年，限额以上单位通 ...

Economic Overview - Zhejiang's GDP for the first half of the year reached 45,004 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8%, surpassing the national average [1] - The growth rates for the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries were 3.5%, 5.6%, and 6.0% respectively [1] - Industrial added value increased by 7.6%, while the service sector grew by 6.0% and agriculture by 3.6% [1] Export Performance - Zhejiang contributed 19.8% to the national export growth, the highest in the country [3] - Total import and export volume reached 2.73 trillion yuan, a 6.6% increase year-on-year, with exports at 2.07 trillion yuan, growing by 9.1% [3] - The export of mechanical and electrical products was 970.54 billion yuan, up 10.7%, accounting for 46.8% of total exports [4] Consumption Trends - Social retail sales in Zhejiang totaled 18,979 billion yuan, with a growth of 5.3%, accelerating by 0.8 percentage points from the first quarter [6] - E-commerce played a significant role, with online retail sales increasing by 27.4%, outpacing overall retail growth by 22.1 percentage points [7] - New retail formats, such as instant retail and flash sales, have emerged as key growth drivers [7] Industrial Development - The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 7.6%, with private enterprises contributing 77.9% to this growth [9] - Key manufacturing sectors, including computer communication electronics and automotive, saw growth rates of 18.0% and 17.6% respectively [9] - High-tech manufacturing and digital economy sectors also demonstrated robust growth, with increases of 12.7% and 12.0% respectively [10] Price Trends and Income Distribution - Consumer prices in Zhejiang saw a slight decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.2% [11] - The per capita disposable income for urban residents was 43,293 yuan, growing by 4.7%, while rural residents saw a 5.7% increase to 25,986 yuan [11] - The income gap between urban and rural residents has narrowed, indicating improved income distribution [11]

Core Viewpoint - The June CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, surpassing the previous value of -0.1%, while the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of -3.3%. The simulated deflation index based on CPI and PPI remains at -1.38%, consistent with May and at a low since February 2024 [1][5]. Summary by Sections CPI and PPI Analysis - The CPI data met expectations, with high-frequency data estimating a 0.14% year-on-year increase, while the PPI was significantly lower than the expected -3.0% [1][5]. - The PPI showed a base effect advantage with a 0.2% month-on-month recovery, but year-on-year figures continued to decline, indicating potential discrepancies in high-frequency data representation [1][7]. Price Movements in Industries - In June, the PPI for coal processing fell by 5.5% month-on-month, and the prices in coal mining and black metal industries also decreased, reflecting weaker performance compared to high-frequency data [1][7]. - The durable consumer goods segment of PPI fell from 0.1% to -0.1%, with notable declines in the computer and textile sectors, possibly influenced by tariff uncertainties and the "618" e-commerce promotions [2][8]. Positive Trends in PPI - The automotive manufacturing sector saw a month-on-month PPI increase of 0.2%, indicating initial positive effects of the "anti-involution" trend in production [3][9]. - The prices for complete vehicles and new energy vehicles rose by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively, suggesting a narrowing of year-on-year declines in these categories [10]. Notable CPI Details - Key details in CPI include a 0.3% month-on-month decrease in alcohol prices, a shift in clothing prices from increase to decrease during the "618" sales, and a 0.4% decline in transportation tools, indicating ongoing price reductions in the automotive retail sector [4][10]. - Medical service prices have shown a consistent upward trend, with a year-to-date increase of 0.7%, while pork prices fell by 1.2% month-on-month, although a rebound was noted post-June 26 [4][10]. Overall Price Stability and Future Outlook - The current task of stabilizing prices remains significant, with no signs of a turning point in the simulated deflation index. Various factors, including supply-demand fundamentals and external demand fluctuations, are influencing prices [4][13]. - Positive signs include a moderate rise in core CPI year-on-year, improvements in coal and meat prices since July, and initial positive signals in automotive manufacturing prices [4][13]. Key future indicators will be the recovery of local project starts and the continued effectiveness of the "anti-involution" trend [4][13].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for June increased slightly by 0.2 points to 49.7, with six sectors in expansion compared to four in May, indicating a modest recovery in the manufacturing sector [1][5][6]. Manufacturing Sector Summary - The sectors leading in absolute prosperity include petroleum, chemical fiber, electrical machinery, specialized equipment, and agricultural products, benefiting from commodity price influences and large-scale equipment updates [1][7]. - The automotive sector saw a 7.8-point increase in export orders, with a 13.4% year-on-year growth in retail sales during the "618" promotion, and the launch of the 2025 new energy vehicle initiative [2][10]. - The pharmaceutical sector's PMI rose by 7.2 points, ending a two-month decline, influenced by policies supporting innovative drug development [2][10]. - Specialized equipment and non-metallic minerals also showed improvements, with increases of 3.3 and 3.7 points respectively, correlating with the rise in construction PMI [2][10]. - High-energy industries' PMI rose by 0.8 points, reflecting a divergence from overall manufacturing PMI trends [2][12]. Emerging Industries Summary - New materials and next-generation information technology are the only two sectors in the expansion zone for June, with new materials leading for two consecutive months and next-generation information technology for four months [3][13]. - The automotive manufacturing sector improved, but the new energy vehicle segment saw a significant decline in production by 15.9 percentage points, likely due to production cuts and supply-demand adjustments [3][15]. Construction Industry Summary - The construction PMI increased by 1.8 points in June, with residential and construction activity indices rising by 6.1 and 3.4 points respectively, attributed to improved funding for projects and minimal weather impact on indoor construction [3][15][16]. - However, the real estate sector's activity index and new orders declined by 0.7 and 2.9 points, indicating ongoing challenges in the front-end sales segment [3][19]. Service Industry Summary - The information technology and financial services sectors showed the highest prosperity, while offline travel-related industries experienced significant declines, with transportation and hospitality sectors dropping over 5 points [4][19][20]. - The service sector PMI decreased slightly by 0.1 points to 50.1, with various service sectors showing mixed performance [4][20]. Overall Insights - The overall PMI remains low, highlighting the need to focus on mid-level indicators, such as the benefits seen in emerging sectors, the automotive export order increase, and the recovery in pharmaceutical manufacturing [4][21].

Economic Overview - Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui provinces have reported stable economic performance in recent months [1] - Fixed asset investment in Zhejiang increased by 1.9% year-on-year from January to May, with project investment growing by 12.1% [3] - Infrastructure investment in Zhejiang rose by 14.2%, accounting for 26.4% of total investment, an increase of 2.9 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Anhui's fixed asset investment grew by 0.2% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment increasing by 12.4% [3] - Jiangsu's fixed asset investment decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, but infrastructure investment grew by 8.7% [3] Trade Performance - Zhejiang ranked first in the country for export contributions, with total goods import and export reaching 2.24 trillion yuan, a 6.5% increase [4] - Anhui's total import and export value was 374.79 billion yuan, growing by 15.4% [4] - Jiangsu's total goods trade value was 2.33 trillion yuan, a 5.3% increase year-on-year [4] Consumer Spending - All three provinces maintained a retail sales growth rate of over 5% in the first five months [5] - Jiangsu's retail sales totaled 1.98839 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6% [5] - Zhejiang's retail sales reached 1.55 trillion yuan, with a growth of 5.3% [5] - Anhui's retail sales increased by 5.5% [5] Industrial Growth - Jiangsu's industrial added value grew by 7.7% year-on-year, with equipment manufacturing accounting for 54.6% of the total [7] - High-tech manufacturing and digital product manufacturing in Jiangsu saw increases of 9.8% and 9.7%, respectively [7] - Zhejiang's industrial added value grew by 7.6%, with significant contributions from petroleum processing and automotive sectors [8] - Anhui's industrial added value increased by 8.4%, with high-tech manufacturing growing by 29.3% [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the inflation trends in May, highlighting a slight decrease in CPI and a more significant drop in PPI, with implications for future economic conditions and policy responses [1][10]. Group 1: CPI Inflation - May CPI inflation was reported at -0.1% year-on-year, matching the previous value and exceeding market expectations of -0.2% [1][2]. - Energy prices have significantly dragged down CPI inflation, while core CPI showed slight upward support [2][6]. - Food prices experienced a mild decline, with a 0.2% drop month-on-month, which is less than the average decline of 1.4% over the past five years [5]. - Core CPI inflation rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 0.6% year-on-year, although month-on-month momentum has weakened [6][7]. - Service prices remained resilient, with travel prices increasing by 0.8% month-on-month, surpassing the five-year average of 0.2% [6]. Group 2: PPI Inflation - May PPI inflation was reported at -3.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and -0.4% month-on-month, which is weaker than the historical average since 2017 [10][12]. - The decline in PPI is attributed to weak oil prices affecting the entire industrial chain and a slowdown in the construction sector due to adverse weather conditions [10][12]. - Despite the overall decline, there are signs of recovery in prices related to exports and new growth sectors, with textile prices narrowing their decline and some electronic prices turning positive [12][15]. Group 3: Forward Outlook - Looking ahead, energy prices are expected to remain weak, with Brent crude oil projected to fluctuate between $60 and $70 [9]. - The overall pace of CPI recovery is anticipated to be slow, influenced by policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption [16]. - For the second quarter, CPI inflation is expected to stabilize around 0%, while PPI inflation may drop to approximately -3.0% [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the weak performance of CPI and PPI in May 2025, highlighting a deflationary trend and the factors contributing to this situation, including energy and food prices, as well as the broader economic implications for GDP growth and investment opportunities [1][4][11]. CPI Analysis - In May 2025, the CPI year-on-year was -0.1%, unchanged from the previous value, while the PPI year-on-year was -3.3%, lower than the previous -2.7% [1][4]. - The simulated deflation index, based on CPI and PPI weights of 60% and 40%, was -1.38%, the lowest in the past 16 months [1][4]. - The decline in CPI is attributed to a 1.7% month-on-month decrease in energy prices, which negatively impacted CPI by approximately 0.13 percentage points, primarily due to the transmission of commodity price declines influenced by tariffs [6][7]. - Food prices also saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%, contributing to a 0.04 percentage point drag on CPI, with weak demand in the restaurant sector being a significant factor [6][7]. PPI Analysis - The PPI decline was exacerbated by two main factors: a decrease in global pricing raw materials and weak domestic construction product pricing [8][9]. - The oil extraction, processing, and chemical industries experienced expanded declines due to falling oil prices, with year-on-year price drops of -17.3% for oil extraction and -14.7% for oil processing [8][9]. - New industry products made a slight positive contribution to PPI, with some sectors like automotive and electronics showing a slight narrowing in their year-on-year decline [8][9]. Future Price Trends - Looking ahead, there is a potential for a slight narrowing of PPI declines in June due to recent rebounds in oil and copper prices, indicating a possible improvement in global pricing factors [10]. - However, to significantly alter the low PPI situation, prices in the construction and emerging industries need to exit the negative growth range, which requires effective local government investment strategies [10]. Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment since the "924" policy has shown signs of stabilization, with actual GDP growth expected to remain above 5% in the second quarter of 2025, despite pressures from exports to the U.S. [11]. - The current economic challenges are primarily related to low prices and nominal GDP, leading to high real interest rates and a heavier debt burden, which could affect investment and consumption opportunities [11].