广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一， 6月CPI同比0.1%，高于前值的-0.1%。PPI同比-3.6%，低于前值的-3.3%。按照CPI、PPI分别 60%、40%粗略模拟的平减指数为-1.38%，持平于5月，继续处于2024年2月以来低点（图1）。 第二， CPI数据符合预期，在6月底周报中我们根据高频数据测算CPI同比0.14%；PPI同比则明显低于我们 当时测算的-3.0%的预期。6月PPI有基数优势，翘尾回升0.2%；同比却较高频数据继续下探，背后可能一是 高频数据对统计数据的表征有偏差；二是有高频数据不易捕捉的中游和下游行业价格弱势。 第三， 从数据来看确实如此，6月PPI煤炭加工价格环比-5.5%、煤炭开采和洗选业价格环比-3.4%、黑色金 属冶炼和压延加工业价格环比-1.8%，均弱于高频数据的焦煤、动力煤、螺纹钢价格表现，原因可能是煤价 是最后一周反弹（图2），而统计采样前三周更为关键；同时钢铁现货价格弱于期货也导致高频数据存在一定 偏差。 第四， 同时中下游制造行业也确实有一些价格异动，PPI耐用消费品分项环比从0.1%回落至-0.1%，其中计 算机通信 ...

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 王丹 bjwangdan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 6 月制造业 PMI 环比小幅上行 0.2 个点至 49.7 。 15 个细分制造业中，位于景气扩张的行业个数为 6 个，较 5 月增加了 2 个：石油加工及炼焦、 专用设备由景气收缩回到荣枯线上方。 第二， 从绝对景气度看，石油、化纤、电气机械、专用设备、农副食品等景气领先。我们理解：石油、化纤受大宗价格影响；专用设备广泛包括采矿设备、建 筑设备、原材料加工设备、食品轻工和医药设备、电子电工设备、环保设备等，受益于本轮大规模设备更新；电气机械主要包括新能源相关、家电相关，同时 受益于能源转型行业趋势和"两新"红利；计算机通信电子受益于" AI+ "的行业趋势和"两新"红利；农副食品属于今年少有的景气一直偏高的下游行业，受益 于消费环境好转。 第三， 环比代表边际变化， 6 月景气环比前值改善的行业包括汽车、医药、石化产业链、专用设备、非金属矿。我们理解：（ 1 ）汽车行业包含内外需驱 动，一则出口订单环比上行 7.8 个点，二则" 618" 促销带动 6 月狭义乘用车零售同比增长 13.4% ，环比增长 ...

Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI for June is reported at 49.7%, indicating a slight improvement from the previous value of 49.5%, suggesting a continued recovery in manufacturing activity [1] - The construction business activity index rose to 52.8% from 51%, while the services business activity index decreased to 50.1%, down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The production index and new orders index in manufacturing are both in the expansion zone, with marginal increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points to 51% and 50.2%, respectively [2] Group 2 - The internal demand index increased by 0.4 percentage points to 50.6%, outpacing the new export orders index, which rose by 0.2 percentage points to 47.7% [2] - High-frequency indicators show that the year-on-year growth rate of foreign trade cargo volume narrowed from -3.8% to -3.5%, indicating a continued weakening in export strength [2] - The PMI data indicates a divergence in performance among enterprises, with large and medium-sized enterprises seeing increases in PMI, while small enterprises experienced a decline to 47.3%, the lowest since September 2024 [3] Group 3 - The manufacturing sector faces downward pressure due to a potential weakening in export chain production as the equipment renewal cycle declines [3] - Recent policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, including a 500 billion yuan service consumption relending initiative, are expected to support service consumption and infrastructure investment [3] - The PMI improvements in June were more pronounced in industries such as petroleum processing, pharmaceutical manufacturing, and chemical manufacturing, while sectors like electrical machinery and textiles saw significant declines [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to analyze the impact of external environment changes on corporate profitability, particularly in the industrial sector, and the necessary policy responses to stabilize profits [2][3]. Group 1: External Demand Exposure - The estimated external demand exposure for industrial revenue is approximately 16.2% [5][20]. - The calculation of external demand exposure is defined as the total export value of industrial enterprises divided by total revenue, with 2024 total exports projected at 25.5 trillion and industrial revenue at 156 trillion [5][20]. Group 2: Export Profit Elasticity - Two pathways are used to estimate the elasticity of industrial profits to export changes: one focusing on revenue and profit margins, and the other on total output [6][8]. - The elasticity of industrial profits to exports is estimated to be between 0.41% and 0.43%, meaning a 1% change in exports could lead to a 0.41% to 0.43% change in industrial profits [21][23]. Group 3: Domestic Demand Elasticity - The elasticity of industrial profits to final consumption is estimated at 0.54%, while to capital formation it is 0.70%, indicating that changes in domestic demand have a significant impact on industrial profits [31][32]. - A 1% increase in final consumption is estimated to increase industrial profits by approximately 0.05 trillion, while a similar increase in capital formation could raise profits by about 0.06 trillion [32]. Group 4: Policy Response Requirements - To stabilize industrial profits, a 1% decline in exports may require a 0.76% increase in final consumption growth or a 0.59% increase in capital formation growth [35][36]. - The required policy response is greater for consumption than for investment, reflecting the broader impact of consumption across various sectors [36]. Group 5: Industry-Level Insights - Industries with high export elasticity include textiles and metal smelting, while those with high elasticity to final consumption include food and tobacco, and paper and education [45][49]. - Industries that could benefit from increased investment include non-metallic products and metal smelting, which have high elasticity to capital formation [49].

Economic Overview - Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui provinces have reported stable economic performance in recent months [1] - Fixed asset investment in Zhejiang increased by 1.9% year-on-year from January to May, with project investment growing by 12.1% [3] - Infrastructure investment in Zhejiang rose by 14.2%, accounting for 26.4% of total investment, an increase of 2.9 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Anhui's fixed asset investment grew by 0.2% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment increasing by 12.4% [3] - Jiangsu's fixed asset investment decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, but infrastructure investment grew by 8.7% [3] Trade Performance - Zhejiang ranked first in the country for export contributions, with total goods import and export reaching 2.24 trillion yuan, a 6.5% increase [4] - Anhui's total import and export value was 374.79 billion yuan, growing by 15.4% [4] - Jiangsu's total goods trade value was 2.33 trillion yuan, a 5.3% increase year-on-year [4] Consumer Spending - All three provinces maintained a retail sales growth rate of over 5% in the first five months [5] - Jiangsu's retail sales totaled 1.98839 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6% [5] - Zhejiang's retail sales reached 1.55 trillion yuan, with a growth of 5.3% [5] - Anhui's retail sales increased by 5.5% [5] Industrial Growth - Jiangsu's industrial added value grew by 7.7% year-on-year, with equipment manufacturing accounting for 54.6% of the total [7] - High-tech manufacturing and digital product manufacturing in Jiangsu saw increases of 9.8% and 9.7%, respectively [7] - Zhejiang's industrial added value grew by 7.6%, with significant contributions from petroleum processing and automotive sectors [8] - Anhui's industrial added value increased by 8.4%, with high-tech manufacturing growing by 29.3% [9]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 工业盈利：外需敞口与弹性分析 ❖ 核心观点 4 月以来，外部环境出现急剧变化。4 月政治局会议强调，"着力稳就业、稳企 业、稳市场、稳预期"。此处，稳企业的内涵，我们理解或包括稳定企业盈利。 因而，有必要进一步研究外部环境变化对企业盈利的影响幅度以及需要的政策 对冲力度。简言之，工业企业（与出口相关）的外需敞口，内外需盈利弹性。 我们的估算表明，工业部门营收端的外需敞口或在 16.2%左右。从两个路径分 析出口变动对企业盈利影响，路径一为影响工业企业营收与利润率。路径二为 影响全社会总产出进而影响工业企业盈利。1 个百分点的出口变动，工业盈利 增速或变化 0.41%至 0.43%。 内需弹性方面，类似的分析估算表明，最终消费增速变化 1 个百分点，工业盈 利增速或变化 0.54%。资本形成增速变化 1 个百分点，工业盈利增速或变化 0.7%。换言之，1 个百分点的出口变动，需要的对冲力度可能是 0.76%的最终 消费的增速变化或 0.59%的资本形成的增速变化。从 4 月政治局会议来看，最 终消费的政策加码方向为"大力发展服务消费，尽快清理消费领域限制性措施， 设立服务消 ...

5月CPI通胀-0.1%，持平于前值，高于市场预期（-0.2%）；PPI通胀-3.3%，低于前值（-2.7%）与市场预期 （-3.2%）。 一、CPI通胀：能源拖累，核心支撑 5月CPI通胀同比-0.1%，环比为-0.2%。从分项看，能源通胀拖累增大，核心CPI通胀小幅上行形成支撑。 图1：能源对CPI通胀的拖累加大 资 料 来 源 ： M a c r o b o n d ， 招 商 银 行 研 究 院 食品价格温和下跌。 食品价格环比下跌0.2%，跌幅小于过去5年同期（1.4%），同比降幅走阔0.2pct至0.4%。 一方面，部分食品价格季节性转跌，上市量增加导致鲜菜价格环比下行5.9%，需求平淡使猪肉、蛋类、奶类 价格低位下行；另一方面，因供给受扰动、部分食品价格逆势上涨，包括鲜果价格因部分地区暴雨天气阻碍生 产运输而环比上涨3.3%，关税持续影响牛肉进口导致价格环比上涨1.3pct、同比接近回正（-0.1%）。 能源方 面， 国际油价下跌带动国内成品油价再度下调，叠加今年以来共下调4次的累计影响，交通工具用燃料价格环 比下跌3.7%，同比降幅扩大2.7pct至12.9%。 图2：食品价格温和下跌 资 料 ...

广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一， 2025年5月CPI同比-0.1%，持平前值；PPI同比-3.3%，低于前值的-2.7%。按CPI和PPI权重分别 60%和40%模拟的平减指数为-1.38%，低于前值的-1.14%，为过去16个月以来最低。 第二， CPI为什么弱势徘徊？如果我们把CPI价格简单分为三部分：能源、食品、核心，5月前两部分形成双 下拉。一是能源价格环比下降1.7%，拖累CPI环比约0.13个百分点，主要与关税影响下大宗价格的向内传递 有关，4月IPE布油价格环比下行达18.3%，带来5月成品油价格的下降。二是食品价格环比下降0.2%，拖累 CPI环比约0.04个百分点。食品价格偏弱背后可能主要还是餐饮部门需求偏弱，而国内肉类、蔬菜等的传统供 给能力又一直较强。 第三， 再看能源食品之外的价格。因为经历"五一"假期，主要耐用消费品价格环比仍普遍降价，但幅度并未 超过季节性，从而同比降幅并未进一步加深。不过汽车、家电、租赁房、酒类同比仍在负增长区间，除汽车降 幅小幅收窄外，其余降幅持平前值。涨幅扩大的门类主要是服装、家纺、金饰品、文娱耐用品。综合影响下， ...

以下文章来源于36氪财经 ，作者丁卯 郑怀舟 36氪财经 . 36氪旗下官方账号。洞见市场，比99%的投资者更聪明。 A股估值重塑有望延续。 文 ｜ 丁卯 编辑 ｜ 郑怀舟 来源｜ 36氪财经（ID： krfinance） 封面来源 ｜ 视觉中国 本周，受端午节假期影响，周内仅4个交易日。市场在内外部因素共振下，情绪有所回暖，展现出弱反弹态走势，盘中大盘指数向3400点发起冲击，但受量 能偏弱影响未能如愿。全周来看，各宽基指数均迎来反弹，以创业板和中证1000指数为代表成长和中小盘表现最为亮眼。具体来看，上证指数收于3385.36 点，涨幅1.13%；深证成指收于10183.7点，涨幅1.42%；沪深300指数收于3873.98点，涨幅0.88%；创业板指数收于2039.44点，涨幅2.32%；中证1000指数 收于6152.84点，涨幅2.10%；科创50指数收于991.64点，涨幅1.5%。 行业方面，31个申万一级行业中25个上涨，仅6个下跌。表现较好的为通信（5.27%）、有色金属（3.74%）和电子（3.6%）；表现较差的为家用电器 （-1.79%）、食品饮料（-1.06%）、交通运输（-0.54% ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 6 月 5 日 5 月 PMI 数据点评 内、外需表现分化 5 月内、外需表现分化。外贸环境短期改善，对 5 月制造企业生产意愿有所 提振。高技术制造业及高技术服务业景气度均处于扩张区间。 5 月制造业产、需表现均有回升。2025 年 5 月，制造业 PMI 指数为 49.5%， 环比（4 月，下同）回升 0.5 个百分点；制造企业景气度有所回升，但仍 处于收缩区间。多个重要细分项环比有所回升，5 月新订单指数 49.8%， 环比回升 0.6 个百分点，其中，新出口订单指数环比回升 2.8 个百分点， 实现 47.5%，外需是制造业需求回暖的重要贡献项。5 月生产指数实现 50.7%，环比回升 0.9 个百分点，重回扩张区间；原材料库存指数为 47.4%， 环比回升 0.4 个百分点；产成品库存指数为 46.5%，环比下滑 0.8 个百分 点；从业人员指数为 48.1%，环比回升 0.2 个百分点；供货商配送时间指 数为 50.0%，环比下滑 0.2 个百分点。 企业预期方面，制造业生产经营活动预期指数为 52.5%，环比回升 0.4 个 百分点。5 月 ...