Core Viewpoint - DeFi Development aims to raise capital through debt and equity to invest in Solana, creating a potential investment opportunity but also raising questions about the effectiveness of this strategy compared to directly investing in Solana itself [2][10]. Group 1: Company Strategy - DeFi Development holds 690,420 Solana, valued at approximately $109 million, and stakes most of these coins to generate yield [4]. - The company recently increased a convertible note sale to $112.5 million, allocating $75 million for share buybacks and the remainder for purchasing more Solana [5]. - A partnership with BONK, a meme coin project, aims to enhance the company's ecosystem and potentially drive demand for Solana [7][9]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - DeFi Development's stock trades around $25, with an implied value of about $5.90 of Solana per share, indicating a significant premium over the direct investment in Solana [10]. - The convertible notes convert at $23.11, introducing leverage risk that could dilute equity if Solana's price declines [11]. - Interest on the debt could reduce staking yields, and existing equity lines may lead to further dilution for shareholders [12]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - The current premium on DeFi Development's stock reflects investor hope for management's ability to generate value faster than Solana itself [11]. - If Solana's price increases significantly and staking rewards remain high, the company's per-share crypto backing could improve, potentially reducing the premium [13]. - Direct investment in Solana is suggested as a safer option, avoiding risks associated with DeFi Development's management and debt [14].

Group 1: Dollar's Dominance - The US dollar has long been the world's primary reserve currency, often accounting for over 40% of global trade, making it a core pillar of the global economy [1][4] - The dollar's dominance has allowed the US to enjoy rapid economic growth, but it also leads to wealth extraction from other countries during economic bottlenecks [1][8] - The Bretton Woods system established in 1944 marked the formal beginning of the dollar's status as the world's leading currency, linking it to gold and creating a stable exchange rate mechanism [6][4] Group 2: Historical Context - The transition of dominant currencies throughout history is closely related to the rise and fall of great powers, with the dollar maintaining its position since the Bretton Woods agreement [4][6] - Post-World War II, the US emerged as a global economic power due to its minimal war impact and significant gold reserves, which fueled industrial and trade growth [3][6] Group 3: Economic Strategies - The US solidified the dollar's position by establishing oil trade agreements in the 1970s, making the dollar the sole currency for oil transactions, further enhancing its global economic influence [7][8] - The US has utilized a debt issuance strategy to bring dollars back into the domestic economy, promoting investment and consumption without immediate large costs [7][8] Group 4: Global Economic Impact - By 2022, US debt exceeded thirty trillion dollars, yet as long as interest payments can be met, the economy can continue to function, allowing the US to maintain its global economic advantage [8][10] - The cyclical nature of US monetary policy, including interest rate adjustments, has led to economic crises in emerging markets, allowing the US to acquire assets at lower prices during downturns [8][10] Group 5: Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite the wealth gained through dollar dominance, the US faces challenges from rising global manufacturing and the potential for economic instability due to its hollowing-out trend [15] - China's significant economic size, manufacturing capabilities, and strategic autonomy present a challenge to US economic hegemony, making it difficult for the US to exert the same level of influence as before [13][15]

日本6月基础货币同比 -3.5%，前值 -3.4%。 ...

Group 1 - The approval of the REX-Osprey Sol+Staking ETF (SSK) marks the first cryptocurrency product allowing investors to earn yields through staking Solana tokens, reflecting a significant regulatory shift under the Trump administration [1][2] - The ETF will charge a fee rate of 0.75% and allocate at least 40% of its assets to other ETFs and exchange-traded products, primarily those registered outside the U.S., indicating a change in its investment strategy [1] - The SEC's evolving stance under the new leadership of Paul Atkins shows a greater openness to the cryptocurrency sector, potentially allowing more tokens to be classified outside of securities regulations [2] Group 2 - The introduction of staking yield ETFs is seen as a step towards integrating the crypto economy with public markets, making cryptocurrencies more accessible to traditional investors [2] - Despite the approval, there are ongoing uncertainties regarding the distribution, taxation, and reporting of staking rewards, which pose operational risks for ETF issuers [3] - The approval of SSK is expected to trigger a wave of new cryptocurrency ETF launches, with potential implications for the approval of spot Ether ETFs as well [3]

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for June is at 49.7%, indicating a slight expansion in the manufacturing sector, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month [2][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.5%, showing continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [4][6] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.7%, reflecting an overall acceleration in production and business activities [6] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI increased to 49.7%, with production and new orders indices at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, indicating improved production activities and market demand [2][3] - The purchasing volume index rose to 50.2%, up by 2.6 percentage points, suggesting enhanced procurement willingness among enterprises [2] - Price indices for major raw materials and factory prices improved, with indices at 48.4% and 46.2%, respectively, influenced by rising international oil prices [2] Key Industries - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods continue to expand, with PMIs at 51.4%, 50.9%, and 50.4%, respectively [3] - The construction sector shows a significant recovery, with the business activity index at 52.8%, indicating robust infrastructure project progress [4][5] Market Expectations - The service sector's business activity expectation index is at 56.0%, indicating optimism among service enterprises regarding future development [5] - The construction industry's business activity expectation index rose to 53.9%, reflecting increased confidence among construction firms [5] Overall Economic Outlook - The overall economic activity is expected to improve as policy effects continue to manifest, with investment and consumption-related demands likely to be released [7]

Economic Resilience - In the first half of the year, the Chinese economy demonstrated resilience amid complex domestic and international conditions, supported by a series of proactive policy measures [1] - The manufacturing PMI and composite PMI both showed a rebound for two consecutive months in June, indicating a gradual stabilization and improvement in the economy [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking a continuous recovery in the economic climate [1] - Production activities in June accelerated despite it being a traditional off-peak season, showing a seasonal anomaly [1] - The purchasing volume index rose significantly by 2.6 percentage points to 50.2%, while raw material inventory increased by 0.6 percentage points to 48%, the highest level this year [1] - The new orders index rose by 0.4 percentage points to 50.2%, indicating an overall improvement in market demand [1] Key Industries - The three major industries—equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods—maintained good expansion momentum, with PMIs of 51.4%, 50.9%, and 50.4% respectively, all remaining in the expansion zone for two consecutive months [2] - Equipment manufacturing showed particularly active production and demand, driving collaborative development across related industries [2] - The high-tech manufacturing sector provided strong support for economic transformation and high-quality development [2] - The consumer goods sector's steady expansion reflected improving consumer confidence and recovering market demand [2] Construction Sector - The construction business activity index rose to 52.8%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant improvement in the sector's climate [2] - The positive trend was supported by government policies and funding guarantees, including the issuance of long-term special bonds and local government special bonds [2] Service Sector - The service sector maintained steady expansion, with a business activity index of 50.1%, despite a slight decline due to seasonal factors [3] - Certain service industries, such as telecommunications, financial services, and insurance, remained robust with business activity indices above 60% [3] - The service sector's business activity expectations index remained high, reflecting optimism about future market developments [3] Fiscal and Monetary Policies - The issuance of new special bonds accelerated significantly in June, focusing on key areas to support economic growth [4] - The first round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions for the year has been fully implemented, alleviating pressure on the banking system and reducing financing costs [4] - The central bank and other departments are expected to introduce more incremental policies to further promote high-quality economic development [4] Real Estate Support - The central and local governments are increasing support for the real estate sector, with measures aimed at stabilizing the market and optimizing existing policies [5] - More special bond funds are expected to be allocated to areas such as shantytown renovation and old community upgrades to improve living conditions [5]

三大重点行业继续扩张。装备制造业、高技术制造业和消费品行业PMI分别为51.4%、50.9%和50.4%， 均连续两个月位于扩张区间。其中，装备制造业生产指数和新订单指数均高于53.0%，相关行业产需两 端较为活跃。高耗能行业PMI为47.8%，比上月上升0.8个百分点，景气水平有所改善。 产需指数均位于扩张区间。生产指数和新订单指数分别为51.0%和50.2%，比上月上升0.3和0.4个百分 点，制造业生产活动加快，市场需求有所改善。从行业看，食品及酒饮料精制茶、专用设备等行业生产 指数和新订单指数连续两个月位于扩张区间，相关行业产需释放较快；非金属矿物制品、黑色金属冶炼 及压延加工等行业两个指数继续低于临界点，市场活跃度仍显不足。在产需回升的带动下，企业采购意 愿增强，采购量指数为50.2%，比上月上升2.6个百分点。 价格指数回升。主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为48.4%和46.2%，均比上月上升1.5个百 分点，制造业市场价格总体水平有所改善。从行业看，受近期国际原油价格上涨等因素影响，石油煤炭 及其他燃料加工业主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数明显回升；此外，由于铁矿石等原材料价格 继 ...

东方金诚宏观研究 稳增长政策效应显现叠加贸易局势缓和，6 月宏观经济景气度延续回升 ———— 2025 年 6 月 PMI 数据点评 王青 闫骏 冯琳 事件：根据国家统计局公布的数据，2025 年 6 月，中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.7%，比 5 月上升 0.2 个百分点；6 月非制造业商务活动指数为 50.5%，比 5 月上升 0.2 个百分点，其中，建筑 业商务活动指数为 52.8%，比 5 月上升 1.8 个百分点，服务业 PMI 指数为 50.1%，比 5 月下降 0.1 个百 分点；6 月综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.7%，比 5 月上升 0.3 个百分点。 6 月 PMI 数据要点解读如下： 6 月制造业 PMI 指数上升 0.2 个百分点，基本符合市场预期。历史数据显示，6 月制造业 PMI 指数 季节性规律并不明显，由此，当月制造业 PMI 指数走势主要受外部环境、宏观政策及经济基本面牵 动。6 月制造业 PMI 指数回升，背后主要有两个原因：一是稳增长政策效应持续体现。4 月 25 日中央 政治局会议部署"加强超常规逆周期调节"，"加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"，其中，5 ...

周一大多数亚洲货币走强，此前数据显示中国商业活动有所改善，而美元则因美联储可能降息的预期增强而回 落。 美元仍处于三年多来的低点，同时还受到政府债务水平上升担忧的压力，尤其是随着一项全面减税和削减支出的 法案在美国参议院取得进展。预计议员最早将于周一对该法案进行表决。 区域货币普遍延续上周涨势，并在6月份取得强劲增长，这主要得益于美元持续疲软。 人民币走强;6月PMI显示有所改善 不过，中国经济持续疲软预计将促使北京出台更多刺激措施。 美元因降息预期和债务担忧而走弱 美元指数和美元指数期货在亚洲交易时段均下跌0.2%，仍接近2022年初以来的最低水平。 美元受到市场对美联储降息计划预期增强的压力。CME Fedwatch显示，市场加大了对央行至少在9月前降息25基 点的押注。 这些押注出现在近期通胀数据显示5月份有所上升之际，而美联储主席鲍威尔也驳斥了即将降息的猜测。 尽管如此，鲍威尔仍面临来自特朗普总统降息的持续压力，预计特朗普甚至会提前宣布鲍威尔的继任者以削弱美 联储主席的影响力。 随着特朗普全面减税法案在参议院取得进展，对美国政府债务高企的担忧也拖累了美元。 人民币兑美元汇率周一下跌0.1%，中国货币接 ...

2025 年 6 月 30 日 总量研究 外部扰动减弱，内生动能修复 ——2025 年 6 月 PMI 点评 作者 分析师：高瑞东 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513066 gaoruidong@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 "抢出口"带动制造业 PMI 回暖——2025 年 5 月 PMI 点评（2025-05-31） 经济新动能加快释放——2025 年 3 月 PMI 点评（2025-03-31） 2 月制造业 PMI"开门红"——2025 年 2 月 PMI 点评（2025-03-01） 1 月制造业 PMI 为何回落？——2025 年 1 月 PMI 点评（2025-01-27） PMI 数据显示逆周期政策正在见效——2024 年 12 月 PMI 点评（2024-12-31） 为何 PMI 能连续超预期？——2024 年 11 月 PMI 点评兼光大宏观周报（2024-11-30） 政策效果正在显现，PMI 逆季节性回升—— 2024 年 10 月 PMI ...