【重点关注】 ·财政部：2025年证券交易印花税增长57.8% ·两部门：将通过容量电价回收煤电机组固定成本的比例提升至不低于50% 【国内要闻】 ·国务院关税税则委员会公告，自2026年2月2日起，对威士忌酒实施5%的进口暂定税率。 ·1月30日，财政部举行新闻发布会，介绍2025年财政收支情况。会上，财政部国库司副司长郑涌介绍， 2025年，证券交易印花税达到2035亿元，增长57.8%。 ·财政部发布数据显示，2025年1-12月，国有企业营业总收入848886.5亿元，同比增长0.5%； 国有企业 利润总额40380.5亿元，同比下降6.3%。 ·工信部发布2025年软件业运行情况。2025年，我国软件和信息技术服务业（简称"软件业"）运行态势 良好，软件业务收入稳健增长，利润总额增势放缓，软件业务出口保持正增长。2025年，我国软件业务 收入154831亿元，同比增长13.2%。软件业利润总额18848亿元，同比增长7.3%。软件业务出口627.3亿 美元，同比增长7.7%，增速连续10个月保持正增长。 ·国家发展改革委、国家能源局发布关于完善发电侧容量电价机制的通知。通知指出，完善煤电及天然 气发 ...

新质生产力引领产业高质量发展 "2025年，我国规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.9%，制造业增加值占GDP比重保持稳定，制造业规模有 望连续16年保持全球第一，工业和信息化领域对经济增长的贡献超四成。"1月21日，在国务院新闻办公 室举行的新闻发布会上，工业和信息化部副部长张云明等亮出2025年工业经济发展成绩单。 实体经济与数字经济加速融合 "初步核算，到2025年末我国数字产业收入约38.3万亿元，实现利润3.1万亿元。"张云明说，相比"十三 五"末期(2020年)分别累计增长约39.5%、48.4%。 "2025年，全球人工智能技术加速创新迭代，与各行业、各领域融合不断加深，中国人工智能产业也亮 点纷呈、活力迸发。"张云明说，"十四五"以来，工业和信息化部一体推进技术攻关、成果转化和产业 化发展，因地制宜发展新质生产力，为我国经济发展提供强大动力。 一批"含新量"高的创新成果竞相涌现。钙钛矿材料、永磁材料、动力电池等技术处于国际先进水平，新 型网络、高速通信、先进计算、新兴软件、区块链等技术加快迭代，基于新型量子技术的原子钟、磁力 仪等样机研制成功，超导量子计算机、光量子计算机实现量子优越性，脑机接口技术 ...

据国新网消息，1月21日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍2025年工业和信息化发展成效。会上，工业和信息化 部副部长张云明介绍道，数字产业是促进实体经济和数字经济深度融合的关键支撑，也是发展新质生产力的 重要载体。"十四五"以来，我国数字产业快速发展，质量效益不断提升，在"规模体量、创新能力、赋能应 用"三方面取得显著进展。 规模体量不断壮大，大省作为产业发展"稳定器"作用更加突出。初步核算，到2025年末我国数字产业收入约 38.3万亿元，实现利润3.1万亿元，相比"十三五"末期(2020年)分别累计增长约39.5%、48.4%。2025年，广东、 江苏、北京、浙江、上海、山东、四川、福建、安徽、湖北等省市数字产业收入规模居全国前10，对全国数 字产业收入增长贡献率超90%。 创新能力加速释放，培育新动能"加速器"作用更加突出。软件业创新成果不断涌现，基础软件生态持续完善， 开源鸿蒙操作系统装载设备量已接近12亿台。人工智能产业蓬勃发展，一批现象级创新成果不断涌现，各类 终端产品日益丰富。新领域、新赛道数字产品正带动新一轮消费升级，成为经济发展新的增长点。 赋能应用纵深推进，实数融合的"连接器"作用更加突出。工 ...

新华财经北京1月21日电（记者刘旭阳李唐宁）21日，国务院新闻办举行新闻发布会，介绍2025年工业 和信息化发展成效。工业和信息化部副部长张云明在会上表示，"十四五"以来，数智技术深度融入生产 制造核心环节，已有100家高水平的5G工厂达到全球领先水平。工业和信息化部会同财政部对101个中 小企业数字化转型试点城市予以支持，"点线面"结合推动4.5万家中小企业开展数字化转型。 创新能力加速释放，培育新动能"加速器"作用更加突出。软件业创新成果不断涌现，基础软件生态持续 完善，开源鸿蒙操作系统装载设备量已接近12亿台。人工智能产业蓬勃发展，一批现象级创新成果不断 涌现，各类终端产品日益丰富。新领域、新赛道数字产品正带动新一轮消费升级，成为经济发展新的增 长点。 赋能应用纵深推进，实数融合的"连接器"作用更加突出。工业互联网融合应用实现工业大类全覆盖，初 步建成多层次、系统化的工业互联网平台，全国重点平台工业设备连接数超过1亿台（套）。数智技术 深度融入生产制造核心环节，已有100家高水平的5G工厂达到全球领先水平，平均产能提升25%，产品 质量提升21%，运营成本降低19%。会同财政部对101个中小企业数字化转 ...

10万亿度，这不是天文数字的印钞机，是咱中国去年干出来的用电实绩。 2025年，中国全社会用电量历史性地突破了10.4万亿千瓦时。这不是简单的一串数字，而是全人类历史上，单一国家首次跨过这一门 槛。 这意味着中国一个国家的电力需求，已经超过美国的两倍，更是欧盟、俄罗斯、印度、日本四个经济体加起来的总和。如果这还不够震 撼，那我们继续往下扒。 第一产业用电1494亿千瓦时，增速9.9%，这是农业，但不是镰刀锄头的那种，而是温室大棚+智能灌溉+无人机喷洒的"未来农业"。 这个趋势看得格外清楚，两个"明星行业"冲在最前头， 第二产业是大头，66366亿千瓦时，一口气占了总用电量的64%，增速3.7%。很稳定，体现出我国工业生产的基本盘还很扎实，颤都不 带颤一下的。 但真让我眼前一亮的，是第三产业用电19942亿千瓦时和城乡居民生活用电15880亿千瓦时，这两头加起来贡献了一半的增长率！ 啥意思？服务业发力，消费端火热，社会活动全都转起来了。 但光有用电不够猛，输电才是真章法。中国凭什么能扛下这么大的电量？全靠电网"大脑"在操盘。 国家电网最近刚公布的"十五五"规划，4万亿元不是拿去建电站，而是升级整个电网系统。 咱 ...

Group 1 - The core argument is that the high growth in equipment investment is not primarily driven by the "Two New" policies or the manufacturing Juglar cycle, but rather by strong investment in broad infrastructure and the service sector [1][8][69] - Equipment investment growth is significantly higher in sectors such as construction (65.5%), narrow infrastructure (46.1%), public utilities (16.5%), and services (13.9%) compared to manufacturing (6.5%), contributing an additional 8.1 percentage points to overall equipment investment [1][8][69] - In 2025, manufacturing investment growth is expected to decline to 1.9%, while equipment investment is projected to maintain high growth at 12.2%, driven by digital infrastructure and energy infrastructure [1][8][69] Group 2 - The strong growth in equipment investment is fueled by the establishment of a modern industrial system, which enhances digital infrastructure, alongside natural renewal cycles and recovering travel demand, thus boosting narrow infrastructure and construction equipment investment [3][24][69] - Key sectors such as software and computer services are experiencing growth rates of 53%, while aviation and road transport equipment investments are also high, correlating with a 17.9% year-on-year increase in civil aviation passenger transport [3][24][69] - The acceleration of energy transition and infrastructure investment in central and western regions, particularly since the intensification of the "dual carbon" policy in 2021, has led to a significant increase in public utility equipment investment [3][31][69] Group 3 - Fiscal policies have increased research spending and improved travel chain demand, leading to a notable rise in service sector equipment investment, which has outpaced construction investment since 2023 [4][40][69] - The growth rate for service sector equipment investment reached 13.9% in 2024, while construction investment only grew by 2.8% [4][40][69] - The recovery gap in service sector investment is estimated to be around 2-3 trillion yuan, indicating a strong potential for future growth in this area [4][56][69] Group 4 - Equipment investment is expected to continue its high growth into 2026, supported by both domestic and external demand chains [5][69] - Narrow infrastructure investment is anticipated to rebound significantly, particularly in digital infrastructure and hub-related investments [5][46][69] - The "dual carbon" policy is expected to further drive investment in equipment for carbon reduction, including modifications in high-energy-consuming industries and investments in renewable energy [5][51][69]

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the high growth in equipment investment is not primarily driven by the "Two New" policies or the manufacturing Juglar cycle, but rather by strong investment in broad infrastructure and the service sector [2][9][71]. Group 1: Misconceptions about Equipment Investment Growth - Misconception 1: The strong equipment investment is attributed to the "Juglar cycle"; however, it is actually driven by robust growth in broad infrastructure and service sector investments. In 2024, the growth rates for equipment purchases in construction (65.5%), narrow infrastructure (46.1%), public utilities (16.5%), and services (13.9%) significantly outpaced manufacturing (6.5%), contributing an additional 8.1 percentage points to overall equipment investment [2][9][71]. - Misconception 2: The strong equipment investment is influenced by the "Two New" policies; however, the investment rhythm and structure contradict this view. Special government bonds supporting the "Two New" policies will intensify in the second half of 2024, but by February 2024, manufacturing investment and equipment purchase investment had already surged significantly [2][9][71]. - Misconception 3: The strong manufacturing investment is a result of strong equipment investment; in reality, it stems from construction and installation investments (expansion investments). Since 2024, while manufacturing and equipment purchase investments have grown simultaneously, the growth in equipment investment is not solely derived from manufacturing [3][21][71]. Group 2: Drivers of High Equipment Investment Growth - Reason 1: The establishment of a modern industrial system has driven strong digital infrastructure growth, combined with natural renewal cycles and recovery in travel demand, boosting narrow infrastructure and construction equipment investments. In 2024, narrow infrastructure equipment purchases contributed 4.3 percentage points to total equipment investment, exceeding manufacturing's contribution [4][25][77]. - Reason 2: The acceleration of energy transition and thermal power renovation investments in the central and western regions has strengthened public utility equipment investments, particularly since the intensification of the "dual carbon" policy in 2021. Public utility equipment investment has consistently outpaced construction investment by nearly 10 percentage points since 2021 [4][32][77]. - Reason 3: Increased fiscal spending on research and improvement in travel chain demand have boosted service sector equipment investments. Since 2023, service sector equipment investments have shown a trend of being stronger than construction investments, with significant growth in sectors like leasing and scientific research [5][42][77]. Group 3: Sustainability of High Equipment Investment Growth - Main Line 1: Narrow infrastructure is expected to rebound significantly, especially in digital infrastructure and hub-type investment construction. Recent policy measures, including the issuance of special bonds and financial tools, are set to support new infrastructure investments [6][48][79]. - Main Line 2: The "dual carbon" policy is expected to enhance investments in equipment for carbon reduction, including renovations in high-energy-consuming industries and investments in renewable energy [6][53][79]. - Main Line 3: Policies related to "investment in people" are likely to be significantly intensified, with service sector equipment investments related to consumer infrastructure expected to recover actively [6][58][79]. - Main Line 4: Equipment investments related to external demand are expected to remain resilient, particularly in sectors supporting the industrialization of emerging economies [6][63][79].

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the high growth in equipment investment is not primarily driven by the "Two New" policies or the manufacturing Juglar cycle, but rather by strong investment in broad infrastructure and the service sector [2][9][71]. Group 1: Misconceptions about Equipment Investment Growth - Misconception 1: The strong equipment investment is attributed to the Juglar cycle; however, it is actually driven by robust growth in broad infrastructure and service sector investments. In 2024, the growth rates for equipment purchases in construction (65.5%), narrow infrastructure (46.1%), public utilities (16.5%), and services (13.9%) significantly outpaced manufacturing (6.5%), contributing an additional 8.1 percentage points to overall equipment investment [2][9][71]. - Misconception 2: The strong equipment investment is influenced by the "Two New" policies; however, the investment rhythm and structure contradict this view. The special government bonds supporting "Two New" policies will only ramp up in the second half of 2024, while manufacturing and equipment purchase investments had already surged in February 2024 [2][9][71]. - Misconception 3: The strong manufacturing investment is a result of strong equipment investment; in reality, it stems from construction and installation investments (expansion investments). Since 2024, while manufacturing and equipment purchase investments have grown simultaneously, the growth in equipment investment is not solely derived from manufacturing [3][21][71]. Group 2: Drivers of High Equipment Investment Growth - Reason 1: The establishment of a modern industrial system has boosted digital infrastructure, combined with natural renewal cycles and recovering travel demand, driving equipment investment in narrow infrastructure and construction. In 2024, narrow infrastructure equipment purchases contributed 4.3 percentage points to total equipment investment, exceeding manufacturing's contribution [4][25][77]. - Reason 2: The acceleration of energy transition and thermal power renovation investments in central and western regions has strengthened public utility equipment investments, particularly since the intensification of the "dual carbon" policy in 2021 [4][32][77]. - Reason 3: Increased fiscal spending on research and improvements in travel chain demand have driven strong service sector equipment investments. Since 2023, service sector equipment investments have shown a trend of outpacing construction investments [5][42][77]. Group 3: Sustainability of High Equipment Investment Growth - Main Line 1: Narrow infrastructure is expected to rebound significantly, especially in digital infrastructure and hub-related investments. Recent policy measures, including a reduction in the proportion of special refinancing bonds, are anticipated to support a rebound in infrastructure investment in 2026 [6][48][79]. - Main Line 2: The "dual carbon" policy is expected to enhance investments in equipment for carbon reduction, including renovations in high-energy-consuming industries and investments in renewable energy [6][53][79]. - Main Line 3: Policies related to "investment in people" are likely to be significantly strengthened, with service sector equipment investments related to consumer infrastructure expected to recover actively [6][58][79]. - Main Line 4: Equipment investments related to external demand are expected to remain resilient, particularly in sectors supporting the industrialization of emerging economies [6][63][79].

Group 1: Misconceptions about Equipment Investment Growth - Equipment investment growth is not primarily driven by the "Juga Cycle" but rather by strong infrastructure and service sector investments, with construction industry growth at 65.5% and narrow infrastructure at 46.1% in 2024, contributing an additional 8.2 percentage points to overall equipment investment[2] - The notion that equipment investment strength is influenced by the "Two New" policies is misleading; significant increases in manufacturing investment and equipment purchases occurred as early as February 2024, with equipment purchase investment growth reaching 17%[2] - Manufacturing equipment purchase investment growth was only 6.5% in 2024, significantly lower than the overall equipment investment growth of 15.7%[3] Group 2: Drivers of Equipment Investment Growth - The establishment of a modern industrial system has driven strong digital infrastructure investments, with software industry growth at 53% and computer services at 35%, contributing to overall equipment investment[4] - Public utility equipment investment has surged since the "dual carbon" policy was intensified in 2021, with electricity and heat equipment investment growth at 17.6%[4] - Service sector equipment investment has outpaced construction investment since 2023, with growth rates of 13.9% compared to 2.8% for construction investment in 2024[5] Group 3: Sustainability of Equipment Investment Growth - Equipment investment is expected to continue high growth in 2026, supported by a rebound in narrow infrastructure, particularly in digital infrastructure and hub-related investments[6] - The "dual carbon" policy is anticipated to further enhance investment in carbon reduction technologies, including high-energy-consuming industry upgrades and renewable energy investments[6] - Policies focused on "investing in people" are likely to increase service sector equipment investment, with a projected growth rate of around 6% in 2026, surpassing the overall fixed asset investment growth of 3%[7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the meetings is to implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, summarize the work of 2025 and the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, analyze new situations, and research key tasks for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, while deploying key work for 2026 [1][2] - In 2025, the industrial economy is expected to achieve effective qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth, with telecommunications business volume and software business revenue projected to grow by approximately 9% and 12% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The resilience of industrial and supply chains is continuously enhanced, with high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing value-added growing by 9.2% and 9.3% year-on-year from January to November, respectively [1] Group 2 - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan," focusing on achieving new industrialization, deepening reforms, and promoting the integration of technological and industrial innovation [2] - Ten key areas of work have been deployed for 2026, including consolidating the positive trend of the industrial economy, enhancing the resilience and safety of industrial chains, and promoting green low-carbon development in the industrial sector [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to establish the first batch of national emerging industry development demonstration bases and create innovative industrial clusters [3]