民政部刚出的2024年数据，全国结婚登记就610.6万对，比前一年少了157.4万对，降了20.5%，这是 1980年以来最低的。结婚率也掉到4.3‰，单身成年人超2.4亿。年轻人不急着成家，经济压力大，房价 高，工作不稳，很多人觉得结婚就是多张嘴吃饭。结果呢，婚庆订单比五年前少四成，婚纱店关了不 少，母婴用品增速从双位数滑到个位数。成人用品行业规模从2020年的200亿缩到156亿，四年倒了7万 多家小厂。 这不光是婚恋冷清，整个消费都跟着凉。618大促成交额头一次负增长，京东淘宝补贴砸百亿，用户下 单还少了1.2次。双十一四年不报总销售额了，第三方测算实际增幅不到10%。商场里家电区冰箱洗衣 机卖不动，库存堆45天，三折甩卖都没人要。汽车销量3143万辆是涨了4.5%，但燃油车只1850万辆， 降15%，大家宁愿等电动车优惠。黄金店客流减18%，婚戒卖不动了。 消费信心指数三季度88.5点，十年最低。62%的25到35岁人说，只买必需品，非必需消费从28%掉到 19%。月储蓄率35%，信用卡分期少用10%。大家不是穷，是怕不确定，花钱得算计。城镇家庭平均 2.62人，独居25%，单身经济起来了，但钱不往传 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or companies discussed Core Insights - Amer Sports reported strong Q3 revenue growth of 30% year-on-year, reaching $1.756 billion, and has raised its full-year revenue growth guidance to 23-24% from the previous 20% [1] - The medical aesthetics industry is experiencing a shift towards increased concentration, with leading companies like New Oxygen and Meili Tianyuan achieving differentiated growth despite a slowdown in overall industry growth [2][17] - Retail sales in the apparel sector showed signs of recovery in October, with a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, while jewelry retail also continued to improve with a 9.6% increase [3][23] Summary by Sections Section 1: Amer Sports Performance - Amer Sports' Q3 revenue reached $1.756 billion, with a net profit of $143 million, driven by significant growth in the Americas and Asia-Pacific regions [1][12] - The company has adjusted its full-year earnings per share forecast to $0.88-0.92 from $0.77-0.82, indicating strong operational performance [1][12] Section 2: Medical Aesthetics Industry Trends - The medical aesthetics market is shifting from high-priced surgical procedures to more accessible light medical aesthetics, with a projected 10% decline in average transaction value but a 10.7% increase in consumer numbers [2][17] - New Oxygen's Q3 revenue exceeded expectations, driven by a 304.6% increase in its beauty treatment services, reaching approximately $25.8 million [18][21] - Meili Tianyuan has strategically acquired 19 franchise stores to enhance its presence in the Greater Bay Area, indicating a robust growth strategy [21] Section 3: Apparel and Jewelry Retail Recovery - October apparel retail sales increased by 6.3% year-on-year, attributed to seasonal promotions and improved consumer traffic [3][23] - Jewelry retail sales also saw a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, reflecting a recovery in consumer spending [3][23] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - Recommendations include focusing on brands like Hailan Home, which is adapting to consumer trends, and companies in the beauty sector with strong brand recognition [4][38] - The report suggests monitoring the apparel sector for potential rebounds due to low valuations and improving sales data [3][23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" [1][4]. Core Views - The report indicates that Amer Sports has shown strong performance in Q3 2025, with revenue and profit exceeding previous guidance and Bloomberg consensus expectations. The growth is driven by the Salomon brand, DTC channels, and strong performance in Greater China and the Asia-Pacific region. Management has raised the full-year revenue, profit margin, and EPS guidance [2][3][34]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Amer Sports reported a revenue increase of 30% year-on-year to $1.756 billion, with adjusted net profit rising 161% to $185 million. The adjusted gross margin improved by 2.4 percentage points to 57.9%, and the adjusted operating margin increased by 1.3 percentage points to 15.7%, surpassing Bloomberg consensus expectations [2][7][8]. - Revenue growth was driven by all three business segments, with Technical Apparel up 31%, Outdoor Performance up 36%, and Ball & Racquet up 16%. The Greater China region saw a revenue increase of 47% [2][18]. Management Guidance - Management has raised the full-year revenue growth forecast to 23-24%, with an expected contribution of 100 basis points from exchange rates. The adjusted gross margin is now projected to be around 58%, and the adjusted operating margin is expected to be between 12.5% and 12.7% [32][33]. Business Segment Performance - Technical Apparel: Revenue increased by 31% (fixed exchange rate +32%), driven by strong performance in all regions and channels, particularly in women's products [15]. - Outdoor Performance: Revenue grew by 36% (fixed exchange rate +32%), with significant contributions from footwear and apparel. The DTC channel saw a 67% increase [16]. - Ball & Racquet: Revenue rose by 16% (fixed exchange rate +16%), primarily driven by strong sales in apparel and the tennis segment [17]. Regional Performance - Revenue growth by region: Greater China +47%, Asia-Pacific +54%, North America +12%, and EMEA +23%. All business lines performed well across these regions [18]. Channel Performance - DTC channel revenue increased by 51% to $720 million, accounting for 41% of total revenue, while wholesale revenue grew by 18% [18].

丨 2025年11月20日 星期四 丨 NO.1始祖鸟母公司第三季度净利润增长161% 11月18日晚，始祖鸟母公司亚玛芬体育公布最新业绩。2025年第三季度亚玛芬体育营收同比增长30%至 17.56亿美元；调整后净利润增长161%至1.85亿美元，每股收益翻倍至0.33美元，仍较预期高出8美分； 调整后毛利率扩大240个基点至57.9%。公司预计2025年收入增长将达到23%～24%，高于最初20%～ 21%的增长指引。这一新展望对应的收入预期为63.7亿美元至64.2亿美元，而市场此前估计为63.9亿美 元。 点评：亚玛芬体育三季报数据亮眼，营收利润双增，其中，大中华区成强劲引擎。公司上调全年增长预 期，彰显其市场信心。在运动户外行业竞争白热化的当下，此成绩或引发行业格局变动。超预期数据有 望吸引资金关注，推动股价上扬，但也需留意后续业绩能否持续兑现，以支撑长期走势。 点评：寒潮之下，羽绒服竟掀起"涨价狂潮"。养鸭数量少，羽绒价格疯涨，白鸭绒从低谷价飙升数倍， 鹅绒价格更是高昂。成本大幅增加，让正规厂家羽绒服出厂价直逼千元。这既反映出市场供需的失衡， 也凸显了产业链上游波动对终端产品的巨大影响。 NO.4 ...

每经记者：杜蔚 每经编辑：魏官红 丨 2025年11月20日 星期四 丨 NO.1始祖鸟母公司第三季度净利润增长161% 点评：灵隐寺免票开放，是杭州"还景于民"的又一暖心实践。此举打破门票壁垒，降低公众亲近佛教文 化的门槛，让文化瑰宝更好融入大众生活。景区配套实名预约、分时游览制度，兼顾游客体验与文物保 护。这一举措有望提升城市文旅吸引力，为文化传承与旅游发展注入新活力。 NO.3羽绒价格狂飙，1吨鸭绒从17万元涨到58万元 据媒体报道，11月19日，寒潮来袭，羽绒服迎来"涨价狂潮"。近日，青岛羽绒市场行业人士在接受记者 采访时透露，现在养鸭子的特别少，羽绒价格一天一个价，90%的白鸭绒最低的时候1吨17万元，现在 差不多58万元，鹅绒现在是98万元1吨，一件成人短款羽绒服，差不多需要100只鸭的绒，成本飙升致正 规厂家出厂价逼近千元。 点评：寒潮之下，羽绒服竟掀起"涨价狂潮"。养鸭数量少，羽绒价格疯涨，白鸭绒从低谷价飙升数倍， 鹅绒价格更是高昂。成本大幅增加，让正规厂家羽绒服出厂价直逼千元。这既反映出市场供需的失衡， 也凸显了产业链上游波动对终端产品的巨大影响。 NO.4国际机票降价，不到600元能飞新加 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The consumer sector is experiencing a rebound, with the Consumer ETF (159928) rising by 0.47% and achieving a trading volume exceeding 660 million yuan [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer 50 ETF (159268) also saw a slight increase of 0.2%, with trading volume surpassing 126 million yuan, indicating strong capital inflow [2] - Notable stocks include Samsonite, which surged over 17% with a 11% year-on-year profit growth and a gross margin increase to 59.6% [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year in October, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth, which has drawn attention to the recovery of consumer spending [5] - The government plans to continue implementing measures to boost consumption, including financial subsidies for personal consumption loans and support for key sectors like elderly care and childcare [15] Group 3: Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The Consumer ETF (159928) has a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 20.55, which is at the 7.45% percentile over the past decade, indicating it is cheaper than 92% of the historical time frame [5] - Despite a strong performance in technology and cyclical sectors, the consumer sector has shown relatively weaker growth of only 10.85% year-to-date, suggesting potential for catch-up [8] Group 4: Sector Analysis - The consumer sector is expected to see a rotation and rebound, with specific segments like healthcare, aviation, home appliances, personal care, and non-white liquor showing strong earnings growth while remaining at historically low valuations [12] - The new consumption trends are driven by the Z generation, with sectors like trendy toys and jewelry expected to grow due to changing consumer preferences and technological integration [16][17] Group 5: Company Innovations - Anta Group has launched the first AI design model in the sports goods industry, which has already generated over 2.5 billion yuan in orders, indicating a significant boost in sales conversion rates [18] - Upbeauty Co. has introduced a new baby care brand, expanding its IP strategy to capture the growing demand in the baby personal care market [19]

Core Insights - The first phase of the 2025 Double 11 shopping festival shows significant growth in the sports and outdoor sector, with Taobao and Tmall capturing 58% of the sales share, reinforcing Tmall's dominance in traditional promotional events [1][7]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Tmall maintained its leading sales share despite having the shortest selling period, contributing over 50% of sales in multiple core categories [7]. - Major brands like Fila, Nike, and Lululemon quickly surpassed 100 million in sales after Tmall's launch, indicating strong consumer attraction to top brands and high-value consumers [7]. - Outdoor apparel categories saw double-digit growth year-on-year, with specific items like down jackets and functional underwear experiencing significant increases of over 60% and 30%, respectively [7][8]. Group 2: Consumer Trends - There is a rising enthusiasm for outdoor activities among consumers, with outdoor footwear and apparel categories showing double-digit growth as of October 31 [7]. - The demand for health, fashion, and technology in outdoor consumer products has led to the emergence of innovative categories like functional underwear, with brands achieving triple-digit growth in sales [8]. Group 3: Product Innovation - The differentiation towards professional and functional products in the sports and outdoor sector is driven by the supply of new and innovative items, with over 50% of best-selling outdoor apparel being new products [8]. - Limited edition items in winter sports, such as collaboration snowboards and apparel, have sparked a buying frenzy, with brands like Burton seeing sales growth of over 300% during the festival [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the outstanding performance of new brands during this year's Tmall Double 11 event, with 302 emerging brands achieving top sales in their respective trending categories, including 14 brands surpassing 100 million RMB in sales [1][4] - Notable new brands such as Xianlang (pet fresh food), Laifen (high-speed hair dryer), and Tuozhu (3D printer) have joined the "billion club," showcasing strong growth momentum [1] - The mother and baby sector saw 37 champion new brands, while the sports and outdoor, and home decoration sectors each had 31 new brands leading in sales, indicating these areas as the most active for new brand performance [4] Group 2 - Emerging brands are not only breaking through in traditional categories but also driving innovation in new categories, such as Mai Cong's customized keyboards and QINKUNG's running apparel [4] - The sales explosion of champion new brands is transitioning niche categories into mainstream markets, with examples like ZWO's smart astronomical telescope and COUCOQ's embedded clothing care machine [4] - Tmall's initiatives like the "Thousand Stars Program" and "Treasure New Brand" are providing traffic support and operational guidance to help brands achieve scalable growth and long-term operations [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid growth and market positioning of the Camel brand in the outdoor apparel sector, highlighting its competitive advantages and challenges in a crowded market. Group 1: Market Performance - Camel ranked first in the outdoor sports brand sales on Douyin during the Double 11 shopping festival, outperforming major brands like FILA and Nike. Within the first 30 minutes of sales on Tmall, Camel's revenue exceeded 100 million yuan [6][12]. - The brand's GMV is projected to exceed 5 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 33% [6]. - Camel has maintained its position as the top seller in various outdoor categories, including jackets and footwear, for six consecutive years [13]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Despite its success, Camel faces increasing competition from both established brands and new entrants targeting the high-end outdoor market [7][27]. - The brand's market share is estimated at 5.5% in the Chinese outdoor apparel sector, with projected retail revenue of around 5.6 billion yuan for 2024 [14][15]. - The article notes that Camel's mid-range positioning may be threatened by the influx of international brands and local competitors entering the market [27]. Group 3: Strategic Positioning - Camel's success is attributed to its timely entry into the outdoor market and its strategic focus on affordable, high-quality products that appeal to a broad consumer base [17][20]. - The brand has effectively targeted the mid-range price segment, with popular products priced between 400-600 yuan, capturing a significant portion of the market [23]. - Camel has invested heavily in marketing, signing high-profile endorsements and increasing advertising spend significantly, which has enhanced brand visibility among younger consumers [24][25]. Group 4: Future Challenges - Camel's growth strategy may face limitations as the brand attempts to expand into higher-end markets, where competition is fierce and brand recognition is still developing [27][31]. - The brand is also exploring new product lines, including beauty products, to diversify its offerings and reach new customer segments [28][29]. - Ongoing trademark disputes and the prevalence of counterfeit products pose additional challenges to Camel's brand integrity and market expansion efforts [31][33].

Core Insights - The 2025 "11.11" shopping festival by "What Worth Buying" emphasizes a consumer trend driven by interests and AI technology, aiming to enhance user experience and satisfaction during the shopping event [1][12] Consumer Trends - The top five categories by GMV during the opening period were major appliances, mobile communications, kitchen appliances, home furniture, and household electricals, indicating a strong preference for larger items [3] - Fastest-growing categories with GMV over one million included pet daily necessities, gaming hardware, outdoor apparel, kitchen tools, and automotive maintenance, with year-on-year growth rates of 90.35%, 55.28%, 43.33%, 36.26%, and 36.24% respectively [3] Interest-Driven Consumption - Interest-driven consumption is becoming a new norm, with significant performance in categories like sports equipment, travel, and home renovation, reflecting a shift from traditional consumption patterns [3][5] - The platform's upgraded "Interest Square" features over a hundred dedicated interest scenarios, enhancing the consumer experience from interest content to interest-based purchases [5] High-Value Products - High-value products such as large-capacity appliances and premium electronics are leading the market, with brands like Midea and Xiaomi dominating sales in their respective categories [4][5] - The smartphone category is witnessing a trend towards high-end and smart devices, with the new iPhone 17 series capturing the top three GMV spots [5] Health and Wellness - Health-related products are experiencing significant growth, with functional health products and smart devices becoming essential for consumers, particularly among working professionals [10] - The trend of "active health management" is driving demand for health products that focus on precise interventions rather than basic protection [10] Travel and Outdoor Activities - Travel-related consumption is on the rise, with international travel gaining popularity, particularly to destinations like Europe and Japan [8] - Outdoor sports categories, including footwear and apparel, are also seeing substantial sales, driven by both professional and amateur consumers [7] Future Outlook - The company aims to deepen its understanding of consumer interests and enhance operational strategies using AI technology, focusing on creating a more interconnected shopping experience [12]