当前A 股市场可能继续呈现蓄势震荡的特征，在国内政策预期升温与三季报业绩验证的支撑下，结构性机会依然丰富。投资者宜保持战略定力，在震荡市中 积极寻找下一阶段的优质资产。科技成长仍是市场中长期主线，在良性调整期间宜择优布局。同时关注三季报业绩验证，寻找盈利优势明显的细分方向。操 作上宜均衡配置，在科技成长与红利价值之间寻求平衡，兼顾进攻与防御。预计短期市场以稳步震荡上行为主，仍需密切关注政策面、资金面以及外盘的变 化情况。短线建议关注通信设备、电子元件、半导体以及消费电子等行业的投资机会。 主力净流入行业板块前五：国产软件，半导体，传媒，游戏，手游； 主力净流入概念板块前五：人工智能，大数据，阿里巴巴概念股，区块链，数字经 济； 主力净流入个股前十：利欧股份、北方华创、蓝色光标、新易盛、寒武纪、华胜天成、东芯股份、三六零、中微公司、华夏幸福 今年以来，二级市场上有色股业绩整体亮眼。Wind数据显示，申万一级有色金属行业141家上市公司已经全部公布三季度报告，前三季度，108家公司营收 规模实现同比增长；96家公司归母净利润同比增长，占比接近七成，其中有23家公司同比增幅超过一倍。与此同时，行业上市公司纷纷通过收 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【集运指数欧线周报（EC）】 02 PART TWO 价格 胡塞停止袭击叠加运价落地不佳，本周EC弱势震 荡 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-17 卢钊毅 从业资格证号：F3171622 投资咨询证号：Z0021177 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 集运指数：胡塞停止袭击叠加运价落地不佳，本周E C弱势震荡 | | 影响因素 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 现货运价 | 11月下旬MSK报价2020、HPL报价2850；OOCL报价2300；CMA报价3150；MSC报价2350、HMM报价2500、YML报价2550、ONE报价2650。（各航司 利空 喊涨开始出现明显分化） | | | | 12月上旬MSK报价3200、HPL报价3250；ONE报价2450； | | | 政治经济 | 【1】根据国务院办公厅关于2026年部分节假日安排，2026年2月份最后一个开展期货交易的周一为2月9日。根 ...

Report 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Core View - Presents the latest data on stock index futures spreads including price differences between futures and spot, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety ratios, along with their changes from the previous day and historical percentile rankings [1] Summary by Category - **Futures - Spot Price Differences**: F futures - spot price difference is - 7.17, H is - 4.87, IC is - 86.29, and IM is - 112.18 with various percentage changes and historical percentile rankings [1] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different inter - period spreads such as next month - current month, quarterly month - current month, etc. are provided for IF, IH, IC, and IM, showing their values, changes, and historical percentile rankings [1] - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios like CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc. are given with their values, changes, and historical percentile rankings [1] Report 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Core View - Displays the latest data on treasury bond futures spreads including basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads, along with their changes from the previous day and historical percentile rankings [2] Summary by Category - **Basis**: TS basis is 1.5208, TF is 1.2620, T is 1.3841, and TL is 1.2692 with corresponding changes and historical percentile rankings [2] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for TS, TF, T, and TL such as current quarter - next quarter, current quarter - distant quarter, etc. are presented with their values, changes, and historical percentile rankings [2] - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads like TS - TF, TS - T, etc. are provided with their values, changes, and historical percentile rankings [2] Report 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report Core View - Provides the latest data on precious metals including domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, price ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, and inventory and position data, along with their changes [4] Summary by Category - **Futures Closing Prices**: Domestic AU2512 contract closed at 961.22 yuan/gram, AG2512 at 12588 yuan/kilogram; foreign COMEX gold at 4174.50, COMEX silver at 52.23 dollars/ounce with corresponding changes [4] - **Spot Prices**: London gold at 4170.87, London silver at 52.33 dollars/ounce, Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T + D at 958.67 yuan/gram, silver T + D at 12563 yuan/kilogram with corresponding changes [4] - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis is - 2.55, silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract basis is - 25 with corresponding changes and historical percentile rankings [4] - **Price Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver ratio is 79.93, Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver ratio is 76.36 with corresponding changes [4] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.11%, 2 - year is 3.58%, 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield is 1.83%, US dollar index is 99.18, offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.0974 with corresponding changes [4] - **Inventory and Position**: Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory is 90426, silver inventory is 584014 kilograms; COMEX gold and silver inventories, registered warrants, and ETF positions are provided with their changes [4] Report 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report Core View - Offers the latest data on the container shipping industry including spot quotes, freight indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data, along with their changes [5] Summary by Category - **Spot Quotes**: Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rates from different shipping companies show various changes [5] - **Freight Indices**: SCFIS (European route) settled at 1504.80, SCFIS (US West route) at 1329.71; Shanghai Export Container Freight Index and its sub - indices show different changes [5] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: EC2512 (main contract) futures price is 1782.3 with a 1.88% increase, and the basis (main contract) is 21.7 with a - 33.64% change [5] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply remains unchanged; Shanghai port on - time rate, port calls, monthly export amount, overseas economic indicators, and OECD leading indicators show different changes [5]

【集运指数】 【现货报价】 根据极羽科技，截至11月4日，未来6周上海-欧洲基本港的运费报价区间参考，马士基1320-2065美 元/FEU，2200-3360美元/FEU；CMA 1460-2206美元/TEU，2520-4008美元/FEU；ONE 1265-1625美 元/TEU，1935-2535美元/TEU；EMC 165-1855美元/TEU，251-2810美元/TEU。 【操作建议】 截至11月3日，SCFIS欧线指数报1208.71点，环比下跌7.92%；美西航线报1267.15点，环比上涨 14.43%。截至10月31日，SCFI综合指数报1550.7点，环比上涨10%；上海-欧洲运价上涨8%至1344美 元/TEU；上海-美西运价2647美元/FEU，上涨23%；上海-美东运价3438美元/FEU，较上周涨13%。 短期震荡，建议逢低做多12合约 【基本面】 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the shipping industry, particularly focusing on the European shipping market, highlighting price fluctuations, supply and demand dynamics, and geopolitical influences affecting the market [3][5][10]. Pricing Performance - The SCFI European line index showed a significant increase, with the December contract rising by 5.08% to 1871 points, marking a 15.32% increase over the past 20 trading days, with a trading volume of 34,500 contracts and a turnover of 3.18 billion yuan [3]. - The SCFI European line price reached 1246 USD/TEU, reflecting a weekly increase of 101 USD/TEU, indicating a price stabilization effort by shipping companies [5]. - The pricing for major shipping lines such as Maersk and CMA has seen substantial increases, with Maersk's large container rates rising by 550 USD to 2350 USD and CMA maintaining rates around 2731 USD [6]. Supply and Turnover - The shipping capacity statistics indicate a high operational capacity in the last week of October, with the GEMINI alliance increasing its capacity due to delayed schedules, resulting in a total capacity of 350,900 TEU [9]. - November's initial capacity remains relatively high at 328,000 TEU, but is expected to decrease significantly in the following weeks, potentially supporting price stabilization in mid-November [9]. - By December, the capacity is projected to be around 250,000 TEU, which may help in building a rolling pool to support price increases [9]. Demand Aspects - The demand for the European line is following seasonal trends, with a typical decline in demand from August to October, but a decrease in booking pressure is expected as shipping companies prepare for the year-end peak season [17]. - The container throughput at domestic ports reached 6.431 million TEU in the 42nd week, reflecting a 3.61% increase month-on-month, indicating a slight recovery in demand [17]. - The macroeconomic indicators show a rebound in the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI to 50, with service sector PMI rising to 52.6, suggesting a positive outlook for demand [17]. Market Perspectives - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict in Gaza, are expected to delay the resumption of shipping routes in the Red Sea, which may influence market valuations [20]. - The new shipbuilding market is in an upward cycle, indicating that oversupply may continue to exert pressure on freight rates [20]. - The market sentiment is currently mixed, with expectations of price increases in November driven by shipping companies' pricing strategies and changes in cargo volumes [20][21]. Additional Insights - Recent price increases by major shipping companies have boosted market confidence for November price hikes, with Maersk's pricing strategy being particularly influential [22]. - The geopolitical landscape, including trade tensions between the US and China, continues to impact shipping demand, with expectations of a decline in trade volumes as a result of tariffs and other regulatory measures [21][22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The US government shutdown continues, causing the US dollar index to fluctuate. The stock market shows different trends, with US stock indices rising due to tech companies' capital expansion, while the Shanghai Composite Index faces a resistance level after breaking through 4000 points. [1][2][3] - In the commodity market, factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy rumors, and corporate actions affect prices. For example, rumors of China's control over syrup imports are beneficial to the domestic sugar market, and the short - term de - stocking of lithium carbonate supports its price. [4][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US government shutdown may last until November, leading to various negative impacts. The US consumer confidence index in October was 94.6. Gold prices fluctuated downward, breaking through the $4000 mark. Short - term gold lacks upward momentum and may still decline. [12][13] - Investment advice: Wait for a better time to buy gold as it has not stabilized yet. [13] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - South Korea's business confidence index declined in October. The US House Speaker poured cold water on Trump's 2028 candidacy. The US Senate failed to pass a bill to end the government shutdown. The US government shutdown continues, putting downward pressure on the US dollar index, which is expected to fluctuate. [14][15] - Investment advice: Expect the US dollar to trade in a range. [16] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The full text of the "15th Five - Year Plan" was released, setting economic and social development goals and promoting the development of strategic emerging industries. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 4000 points but then declined. It may be a short - term resistance level, but there may be medium - term upward momentum. [16][17] - Investment advice: Allocate evenly among long positions in various stock indices. [17] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - OpenAI reached an agreement to transform into a for - profit organization, with Microsoft holding 27% of the shares. The US private sector's average new jobs in the past four weeks were about 14,250. The market is turning cautious before the interest rate meeting, but tech giants' capital expansion supports the index. [18][19] - Investment advice: Be bullish on US stocks with a bias towards a long - position strategy. [19] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 4753 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to be slightly weak in the short term, but there will be better buying opportunities. In November, with weak fundamentals and expected central bank actions, broad - based monetary policy may drive the bond market. [20] - Investment advice: Look for opportunities to go long on treasury bond futures at low prices. [21] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - ANEC expects Brazil's soybean exports in October to be 7 million tons. Affected by the expected Sino - US agreement, CBOT soybean prices rose, driving up the cost of imported soybeans and soybean meal prices in China. [22] - Investment advice: Monitor Sino - US leaders' meetings and China's actual purchases of US soybeans as soybean meal prices follow the external market and import costs. [22] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Pakistan is facing a sugar crisis, and the government is accused of yielding to sugar mills. Brazil's increased corn - ethanol production has pressured sugar prices. India announced an 11 - month sugar domestic sales quota of 2 million tons. Rumors of China's control over syrup and premixed powder imports may benefit the domestic sugar market. [23][25][27] - Investment advice: The rumors are positive for Zhengzhou sugar in the short term. The price may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to relevant policies at the national sugar conference. [28] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Shennong Group's full - cost in September was 12.5 yuan/kg. Market sentiment for secondary fattening has increased, driving up prices slightly. However, due to insufficient capacity reduction and speculative demand, the supply - surplus situation remains. [29][31] - Investment advice: Short - sell near - month contracts on rebounds and focus on the LH2603 contract. Consider reverse - spread opportunities. [31] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Jujubes) - The price of jujubes in Hebei's Cui'erzhuang market has weakened. The futures price of the main contract has declined. The supply is in the normal drying period, and the demand is weak. [31][32] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and focus on price negotiations and acquisition progress in the production areas. [32] 3.2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal market in northern ports remained stable on the 28th. With the end of the railway maintenance, port inventories may accumulate. Coastal power consumption has declined seasonally, and coal prices may weaken slightly in 1 - 2 weeks but remain strong in the fourth quarter. [33] - Investment advice: Expect steam coal prices to weaken slightly in the short term but remain strong in the fourth quarter. [33] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Onslow Iron has been operating at full capacity for three months. Iron ore prices are in a volatile range. Demand is weak, but there is still some spot buying. The price is expected to remain volatile with upward pressure. [34] - Investment advice: Iron ore prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with limited upside. [34] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch enterprises in different regions had varying theoretical profits on October 28. The 11 - contract CS - C spread fluctuated narrowly. The 01 - contract may see a spread repair similar to the 11 - contract. [35][36] - Investment advice: Expect a spread - repair market for the 01 - contract similar to the 11 - contract. [36] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Domestic corn prices are weak, with prices in ports and Northeast deep - processing plants falling, and prices in North China deep - processing plants fluctuating. Futures prices are narrowly volatile. [37] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term as short - selling has a poor risk - return ratio, and it may be too early to go long. [38] 3.2.9 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - The production schedules of major white - goods in November 2025 have decreased. Chongqing Iron and Steel has changed its controlling shareholder. The steel price is volatile, with limited upward momentum due to weakening demand and inventory pressure. [39][40][41] - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading approach and be cautious about upward rebounds. [42] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Shuangliang Energy Saving's Q3 report shows a significant reduction in losses. Polysilicon spot prices are stable, with some orders being delivered. Terminal demand has weakened since late October, but considering upstream inventory and ongoing policies, prices are expected to remain stable. [43][44] - Investment advice: Buy on dips if the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. Take profits if the futures price is at a significant premium. [45] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead 0 - 3 spread was at a discount of $33.8/ton on October 27. The LME inventory decreased, and the outer - market price rose. The domestic lead price was slightly affected, with short - term supply shortages and long - term demand uncertainties. [46] - Investment advice: Be cautious when going long on lead in the short term. Consider positive - spread opportunities for the spread and be cautious in cross - border trading. [47] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc 0 - 3 spread was at a premium of $212.89/ton on October 27. Peru and Chile's zinc concentrate exports have changed. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic zinc market has supply and demand challenges. The zinc price may be volatile and slightly bullish in the short term. [48][49][51] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. Look for medium - term positive - spread opportunities and be cautious in cross - border trading. [51] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In October, the operating rate and output of industrial silicon in Yunnan decreased. The inventory is expected to be difficult to deplete in November and may decrease in December. [52][53] - Investment advice: Buying industrial silicon at low prices may be more cost - effective. [54] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Anglo American's Q3 copper production increased, and an Australian investment company is involved in the strategic metals market. The macro environment supports copper prices, but high prices have affected downstream restocking. The spot price may remain at a discount. [55][56] - Investment advice: Adopt a buy - on - dips strategy for single - side trading and a wait - and - see approach for spreads. [57] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Albemarle simplifies its business by selling a stake in Ketjen. Lithium carbonate inventory is decreasing, and the price is supported in the short term, but further upward movement depends on supply disruptions. [58][59] - Investment advice: Use a range - trading strategy in the short term and consider short - selling opportunities when demand peaks. Take profits on the LC2511 - LC2601 reverse - spread and look for positive - spread opportunities for LC2601 against more distant contracts. [59] 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts increased on October 28. The short - term market is affected by Sino - US relations and the interest - rate cycle. The global nickel inventory is accumulating, and the price may fluctuate within a narrow range above the cost. [60][61] - Investment advice: Consider going long on nickel at low prices for allocation purposes. Speculators can consider selling out - of - the - money puts and buying deep - out - of - the - money calls. [61] 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US API crude oil inventory decreased. Oil prices fell, and the risk premium has declined. The impact of sanctions on Russian oil supply is uncertain. [62][63] - Investment advice: Expect crude oil prices to fluctuate in the short term and monitor geopolitical situations. [63] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - Iran's Marjan methanol plant has restarted. Methanol prices have fallen with increased positions. The market is bearish, and the price may continue to decline. [64] - Investment advice: Hold short positions and consider adding short positions for aggressive investors. Set a profit - taking target between 2150 - 2200 yuan/ton. [65] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market is stable, with some varieties showing a strengthening trend. The futures price is volatile. The market may have limited upward space due to poor supply - demand fundamentals. [66][67] - Investment advice: The pulp price may be relatively strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited. [67] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of high - concentration caustic soda in Shandong has declined. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is limited. The price of caustic soda may continue to fall. [68][69] - Investment advice: Short - sell caustic soda at high prices but be cautious when chasing short positions due to the large discount in the futures price and potential demand from new alumina capacity. [69] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in the Shahe area is fluctuating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is average. High inventory levels are suppressing the price. [70] - Investment advice: The downward space for soda ash is limited in the short term, and attention should be paid to coal prices and new - capacity releases. [70] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market is stable. The futures price has rebounded due to short - covering. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand is weak. [71][72] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach as the terminal demand is weak, and short - selling at the current level is risky due to potential policy impacts and the futures discount to the spot price. [72] 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA closing price on October 28 was 51.73 yuan/ton, a 3.69% decline. The trading volume has increased slightly, but the price has fallen significantly. The supply - demand structure is balanced and loose, and the price may fluctuate widely during the compliance period. [73] - Investment advice: Expect CEA prices to fluctuate widely in the short term. [74] 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - A collision accident occurred to a 13,000 TEU container ship in the Pearl River Estuary. The MSK W46 line's opening price decreased, and other shipping companies may follow suit in November. The 12 - contract price may face resistance to upward breakthroughs. [75] - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading strategy and avoid chasing long positions at the current level. [76]

中文社会社 | 集运产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年10月28日 | | | | til | Z0016628 | | 现货报价 | | | | | | | 上海-欧洲未来6周运价参考 | 10月28日 | 10月27日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | MAERSK马士基 | 2358 | 2364 | -6 | -0.25% | 美元/FEU | | CMA式飞 | 3533 | 3425 | 108 | 3.15% | | | MSC地中海 | 2265 | 2265 | 0 | 0.00% | | | ONE海洋网联 | 2325 | 2535 | -210 | -8.28% | | | EMC长荣 | 2645 | 2645 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 集运指数 | | | | | | | 结算价指数 | 10月27日 | 10月20日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SCFIS (欧洲航线) | 1312.71 | 1140.38 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The view on the Container Shipping Index (European Line) for this week is wide - range fluctuations. It's necessary to pay more attention to supply - side changes, especially the shipping schedule delays from late November to December caused by port congestion in Europe, which potentially benefit the 2512 contract. The 2512 contract is recommended to be traded with a wide - range fluctuation strategy, and the 2602 contract can also be considered for low - buying opportunities, mainly through 02 - 04 positive spreads for rolling long positions [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Spot Freight and Spot Index Tracking - The average market freight for 43 weeks was 1108 dollars for 20GP and 1812 dollars for 40GP. The SCFIS European Line index on October 13th was 1031.80 points, and it's expected to be around 1100 points on October 20th. The freight of the PA alliance loosened in late October, falling to 1300 - 1500 dollars/FEU [12][14][15] Seasonal Freight Trends of Major Global Routes - The SCFI and NCFI show the seasonal freight trends of major global routes, including Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - Mediterranean, Shanghai - North America, etc [17][18][20] Demand Side China's Export Perspective - In September 2025, China's US - dollar - denominated export year - on - year growth rate rebounded to 8.2%. Exports to the EU, Africa, and ASEAN remained strong, with the year - on - year growth rate of exports to the EU rising to 14.2% [26] Asia's Export to Europe Perspective - From January to August 2025, the cumulative container trade volume from Asia to Europe (Northwest Europe + Mediterranean) was 13.18 million TEU, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.7% [4] Asia's Export to North America Perspective - In January 2025, the container trade volume from Asia to North America was 2.1188 million TEU, with a year - on - year increase of 8.2% [33] US Import Volume Weekly Tracking - The data shows the weekly container import volume of the US from the world, India, China, etc., updated to October 9th [36][37][38] Supply Side Supply Chain Risk Events - Events include the Middle East geopolitical situation, European port operation efficiency, and Southeast Asian extreme weather. For example, Tropical Storm "Ramil" may affect port operations in South China Sea areas [45][46][47] Shipping Schedule Table - The weekly average capacity in November remained around 300,000 TEU/week (excluding 2 pending voyages), with a month - on - month increase of 16.5% and a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. There are many pending voyages in December, and the capacity may be significantly revised later [4][50] Dynamic Capacity - In the past week, the speed of 8,000 - 11,999TEU container fleets was around 15 knots, and the idle capacity of 8 - 11,999TEU container fleets was 14 ships as of October 10th [59] Turnover Efficiency - Data shows the congestion situations of ports in China, the UK/Europe, the Mediterranean/Black Sea, Southeast Asia, North America, and Asia [61][63][65] Static Capacity - In the past three months, the top ten liner companies received new 12,000+TEU container ships, with some deployed on European, American, and Latin American routes. In the next three months, they are expected to receive 18 new 12,000+TEU container ships [74][75][76]

Report Information - Report Title: Container Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: October 16, 2025 - Analyst: Yu Junchen [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Today, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) (EC) continued to decline first and then returned to low - amplitude fluctuations. As of the close, the prices of all EC monthly contracts declined. The decline was due to the relatively weak fundamental support and the attempt of some shipping companies to resume routes in the Red Sea, which brought negative sentiment. In the short term, with geopolitical and tariff issues remaining unstable, the futures prices are likely to continue to fluctuate. Strategies can generally remain on the sidelines or focus on short - term operations, and there are still opportunities for low - buying in the December contract [3]. Grouped Key Points EC Risk Management Strategy - For companies with purchased shipping spaces but full capacity or poor booking volumes and worried about freight rate drops, they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2512) at 1700 - 1750 to lock in profits [2]. - For companies aiming to manage costs, when shipping companies increase blank sailings or enter the peak season, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2512) at 1450 - 1500 to fix booking costs in advance [2]. Market Situation Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: Maersk's cabin opening quotes at the end of October were the same as the previous two periods, indicating successful price support in mid - to late October. Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag - Lloyd all issued price increase letters for November. An Israeli senior official denied reports of a Gaza cease - fire agreement [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The offline PA alliance reduced freight rates to $1500 per FEU. SeaLead and CMA CGM announced route reforms and upgrades [4]. EC Data - **EC Basis Changes**: On October 16, 2025, the basis and its daily and weekly changes of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, and EC2608 are provided in the report [5][6]. - **EC Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices, daily and weekly price changes, and price spreads of different EC contracts on October 16, 2025, are presented [6]. Shipping Quotes - **Container Spot Quotes**: Maersk's 20GP and 40GP quotes from Shanghai to Rotterdam on different dates in October showed increases, while some of CMA CGM's quotes decreased [8]. - **Global Freight Rate Indexes**: The latest values, previous values, changes, and change rates of various global freight rate indexes such as SCFIS, SCFI, XSI, and FBX are provided [9]. Port and Shipping Data - **Port Waiting Times**: The waiting times at major global ports on October 15, 2025, and their changes compared to the previous day and the same period last year are presented [16]. - **Shipping Speeds and Waiting Ships**: The average speeds of 8000 +, 3000 +, and 1000 + container ships on October 15, 2025, and the number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorages are provided, along with their changes compared to the previous day and the same period last year [25].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Today, the futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) (EC) oscillated at a low level with a slight upward trend. As of the close, the prices of EC contracts showed mixed movements. The main reason for the overall oscillatory trend of today's futures price is that although the US announced a 100% tariff increase on China, subsequent statements on social media by Trump and Vance were more conciliatory, leading to an oscillating macro - sentiment. Additionally, the near - month contracts rebounded due to CMA CGM's announcement of a November freight rate increase. In the short term, the futures price is likely to continue oscillating. It is necessary to closely monitor the cease - fire process in Gaza and Sino - US relations. Strategically, one can generally remain on the sidelines or attempt a 10 - 12 positive spread strategy [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Position Management**: For those who have already acquired positions but have full capacity or poor booking volumes during the peak season and are worried about falling freight rates (long position in spot), to prevent losses, they can short the container shipping index futures according to the company's position to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2512, with a selling recommendation and an entry range of 1700 - 1750 [2]. - **Cost Management**: When shipping companies increase blank sailings or the market is about to enter the peak season, and they hope to book cabins according to order situations (short position in spot), to prevent an increase in transportation costs due to rising freight rates, they can buy the container shipping index futures at present to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EC2512, with a buying recommendation and an entry range of 1450 - 1500 [2]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - As of the close, for the EC2510 contract, long positions decreased by 1414 lots to 9464 lots, short positions decreased by 1129 lots to 10337 lots, and trading volume decreased by 946 lots to 6566 lots (bilateral) [3]. 3.3利多解读 - On the evening of October 12, US Eastern Time, the US stock futures market rebounded after Friday's sharp decline. Dow Jones futures rose 0.7%, more than 300 points. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures rose 0.9% and 1% respectively. Earlier in the morning, US President Trump softened his tone, saying that US - China relations "will be fine" and that the US wants to help China rather than harm it [4]. - CMA CGM officially announced a November price increase. Starting from November 1, the quoted price for the Asia - to - Northern Europe route will rise to $1500/TEU and $2600/FEU [4]. 3.4利空解读 - On October 10, 2025, Trump stated that the US would impose a 100% tariff on China and implement new export controls on key software products [5]. 3.5 EC Basis Daily Changes - For EC2510, the basis was - 97.60 points, with a daily change of - 8.30 points and a weekly change of - 79.09 points [6]. - For EC2512, the basis was - 530.70 points, with a daily change of 8.50 points and a weekly change of 125.81 points [6]. - For EC2602, the basis was - 328.10 points, with a daily change of - 21.90 points and a weekly change of 236.41 points [6]. - For EC2604, the basis was - 66.70 points, with a daily change of - 29.50 points and a weekly change of 81.41 points [6]. - For EC2606, the basis was - 236.2 points, with a daily change of - 34.10 points and a weekly change of - 7.62 points [6]. 3.6 EC Price and Spreads - For EC2510, the closing price was 1129.4 points, with a daily increase of 0.74% and a weekly decrease of 0.84% [8]. - For EC2512, the closing price was 1562.5 points, with a daily decrease of 0.54% and a weekly decrease of 12.07% [8]. - For EC2602, the closing price was 1359.9 points, with a daily increase of 1.64% and a weekly decrease of 19.29% [8]. - For EC2604, the closing price was 1098.5 points, with a daily increase of 1.25% and a weekly decrease of 13.41% [8]. - For EC2606, the closing price was 1268.0 points, with a daily increase of 1.55% and a weekly decrease of 14.53% [8]. - For EC2608, the closing price was 1395.8 points, with a daily decrease of 0.66% and a weekly decrease of 13.69% [8]. 3.7集运现舱报价（CY - CY，上海—鹿特丹） - On October 24, for Maersk's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1095, a $10 increase from the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $1830, a $20 increase from the previous period [10]. - In late October, for CMA CGM's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1210/1345, a $100 decrease from the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $2020/2292, a $200 and $199 decrease from the previous period respectively. For Hapag - Lloyd's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam during the same period, the total quote for 20GP was $1185, a $50 decrease from the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $1935, a $100 decrease from the previous period [10]. 3.8 Global Freight Rate Index - SCFIS: European Route was 1031.8 points, down 14.7 points (- 1.40%) from the previous value [11]. - SCFIS: US West Route was 862.48 points, down 14.34 points (- 1.64%) from the previous value [11]. - SCFI: European Route was $1068/TEU, up $97 (9.99%) from the previous value [11]. - SCFI: US West Route was $1468/FEU, up $8 (0.55%) from the previous value [11]. - XSI: European Route was $1603/FEU, unchanged from the previous value [11]. - XSI: US West Route was $1478/FEU, down $5 (- 0.3%) from the previous value [11]. - FBX Comprehensive Freight Rate Index was $1540/FEU, unchanged from the previous value [11]. 3.9 Global Major Port Waiting Times - Hong Kong Port: On October 12, 2025, the waiting time was 0.832 days, a decrease of 0.207 days from the previous day, compared with 0.948 days in the same period last year [18]. - Shanghai Port: On October 12, 2025, the waiting time was 0.763 days, a decrease of 0.517 days from the previous day, compared with 1.246 days in the same period last year [18]. - Yantian Port: On October 12, 2025, the waiting time was 1.925 days, a decrease of 0.278 days from the previous day [18]. - Singapore Port: On October 12, 2025, the waiting time was 1.174 days, a decrease of 0.068 days from the previous day, compared with 0.515 days in the same period last year [18]. - Jakarta Port: On October 12, 2025, the waiting time was 1.414 days, an increase of 0.285 days from the previous day, compared with 1.206 days in the same period last year [18]. - Long Beach Port: On October 12, 2025, the waiting time was 1.892 days, a decrease of 0.007 days from the previous day, compared with 1.798 days in the same period last year [18]. - Savannah Port: On October 12, 2025, the waiting time was 1.355 days, an increase of 0.833 days from the previous day, compared with 1.864 days in the same period last year [18]. 3.10 Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorages - For 8000 + container ships, on October 12, 2025, the speed was about 15.618 knots, a decrease of 0.005 knots from the previous day, compared with 15.845 knots in the same period last year [26]. - For 3000 + container ships, on October 12, 2025, the speed was about 14.882 knots, a decrease of 0.037 knots from the previous day, compared with 15.081 knots in the same period last year [26]. - For 1000 + container ships, on October 12, 2025, the speed was about 13.352 knots, an increase of 0.116 knots from the previous day, compared with 13.538 knots in the same period last year [26]. - The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage on October 12, 2025, was 11, an increase of 1 from the previous day, compared with 6 in the same period last year [26].