康波的凝视：油价一触即发 20260112 摘要 本轮大宗商品超级周期由美元信用裂痕扩张驱动，预计持续约 4 年，大 宗商品上涨呈现轮动规律：黄金、工业金属、石油、农产品依次上涨。 全球石油战略库存已降至历史最低位，金油比和金铜比达到历史最高位， 预示 2026 年俄乌冲突缓解后，全球油价可能出现反转。 油价反转的核心信号包括：主要产油国释放减产协商意愿、联合减产并 有效执行、减产协议在程度和时间上不断加码。第三个信号出现后，油 价将迅速上升。 石油资本开支连续 10 年收缩，美国及其他主要国家战略石油储备降至 历史低点，为未来油价上涨提供支撑。 中长期关注"有锌高"组合，即有色金属（金、银、铜、铝等）、新消 费领域（食品、旅游出行等）和高端制造业（电力设备、化工、医药、 工程机械等）。 康波萧条期的大宗商品超级周期核心逻辑是主导国货币信用裂痕，而非 需求驱动。2016 年以来全球对美元需求回落，增强了大宗商品储备价 值。 当前国际油价已回落至 60 美元以下，接近美国页岩气行业盈亏平衡线， 下跌空间有限，上涨空间较大，布局石化投资具有机会。 Q&A 2026 年大宗商品市场的投资机会有哪些？ 在 2026 ...

但在这这一片火热中，帮主想请大家留意几个细节。昨天，领涨的商业航天板块盘中出现了大幅跳水， 虽然最终收回来了，但这个波动给所有人都提了个醒：市场积累了大量的短期获利盘，一旦风吹草动， 波动会非常剧烈。这就像爬山爬得正起劲，突然一阵强风吹来，你得抓牢才行。 那咱们中长线投资者，面对这种十年一遇的连阳行情，是该跟风猛冲，还是该稳守阵地？我的观点很明 确：可以乐观，但必须清醒。市场的热度是事实，经济预期的改善、增量资金的入场、政策面的支持， 这些都是实实在在的支撑。不少公司自己也在回购股票，或者通过定增扩大投资，这说明产业资本对后 市也有信心。 嘿，朋友们，是不是感觉最近朋友圈里聊股票的忽然多了起来？听说杭州有位90后朋友，两天时间用十 万本金赚了近一万，相当于一个月的工资。这行情，确实让人心痒痒。大家好，我是帮主郑重，做了二 十年财经记者，现在专注中长线投资。今天市场走出十六连阳，沪指一举冲破4100点，创下十年半新 高，咱们就来聊聊，这股热浪里，中长线投资者到底该怎么看、怎么动。 这波行情，火得确实有理由。日成交额重新站上三万亿元，市场仿佛回到了资金充沛的亢奋时刻。人工 智能、商业航天这些板块轮番领跑，赚钱效应 ...

Economic Overview - Yunnan Province's economic performance from January to November 2025 shows overall stability and a solid foundation for positive development, with high-quality growth being actively promoted [1] - State-owned enterprises (SOEs) in Yunnan play a crucial role in industrial production, consumption upgrades, investment growth, service sector development, and market stability, injecting strong momentum into the province's economic development [1] Industrial Production - Yunnan is committed to expanding its industrial sector, leveraging its resource-based industry advantages, and focusing on optimizing and upgrading its industrial structure [1] - The non-ferrous metal industry, led by SOEs, continues to grow rapidly at a rate of 13.2%, contributing 36.6% to the province's industrial growth [1] - The chemical industry, supported by technological innovation and resource integration from SOEs, has seen a growth of 3.7%, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] High-end Manufacturing - High-end manufacturing sectors, including equipment and high-tech manufacturing, have shown strong growth, with value-added increasing by 17.0% and 16.9% respectively, surpassing the overall industrial growth rate by 12.5 and 12.4 percentage points [2] - The electronics sector has experienced a growth of 21.6%, with a slight acceleration of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, contributing 24.3% to the overall industrial growth [2] - Emerging industries such as new energy batteries, green aluminum, and silicon photovoltaic, led by SOEs, have seen significant increases in value-added, with growth rates of 75.7%, 10.6%, and 4.7% respectively, becoming new engines for industrial growth [2] Future Outlook - Yunnan aims to maintain a stable yet progressive work approach, implementing more proactive macro policies to expand domestic demand and optimize supply [2] - SOEs in Yunnan are expected to continue their leading role, actively contributing to the effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth of the economy, thereby enhancing the province's high-quality economic and social development [2]

格隆汇1月5日｜近日消息，港股上市公司、国内头部的产业互联网平台——汇通达网络(9878.HK)拟收 购的高端制造业上市公司——金通灵(300091.SZ)重整工作取得关键进展。金通灵于2025年12月31日收 到南通市中级人民法院裁定受理重整申请，标志着金通灵的重整工作步入司法程序，进入实质推进阶 段。 据悉，汇通达于去年9月公告宣布拟收购金通灵25%股权，收购完成后将成为金通灵最大股东。此 次重整申请获得法院受理，是该项收购顺利推进的核心环节。 随着法院受理重整，金通灵股票于1月6 日复牌后股票简称将变更为"*ST通灵"。这是A股市场对于进入重整程序上市公司的标准流程和常规监 管措施，旨在提示投资者相关公司正处于特殊治理阶段。 市场预期，重整程序完成后，金通灵的基本 面将得到显著改善，有望重回持续经营和盈利轨道。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The State Council's Tariff Policy Committee has announced the "2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan," effective from January 1, 2026, aimed at optimizing import tariffs to promote high-quality development and meet the growing needs of the population [1][2]. Group 1: High-end Manufacturing and Technology Industry - The industry will benefit directly from reduced import tariffs on key components and advanced materials, such as hydraulic cushions and composite connectors, which will lower import costs and enhance supply stability [4]. - The tariff reduction is expected to alleviate financial pressure on companies importing critical semiconductor equipment, thereby accelerating domestic substitution processes and fostering a favorable development environment [4]. Group 2: Healthcare Sector - The tariff adjustments will lower import tariffs on medical products like artificial blood vessels and diagnostic kits, reducing procurement costs for domestic healthcare institutions and improving access to quality medical resources [4]. - The ongoing optimization of tariff policies will further decrease operational costs for healthcare companies, enhancing their market competitiveness [4]. Group 3: Foreign Trade and Retail - Foreign trade enterprises, particularly those engaged in cross-border operations, will benefit from tariff reductions, with products like coffee beans and automotive engines included in the "zero tariff" list [5]. - The rising demand in the duty-free shopping market, exemplified by a 54.9% year-on-year increase in Hainan's duty-free shopping amount, will drive growth in related industries such as shipping and logistics [5]. Group 4: Green Energy - The green energy sector will see advantages from reduced import tariffs on resource products, such as recycled black powder for lithium-ion batteries, lowering production costs for new energy battery manufacturers [5]. - The easing of tariffs is expected to provide more certainty for global investments in the new energy sector, further reducing export costs for China's photovoltaic and new energy vehicle industries [5].

Core Viewpoint - Despite an agreement between China and the U.S. to resume the export of rare earth products, China still imposes restrictions on certain critical rare earth elements, impacting U.S. companies' access to essential materials like dysprosium and its oxides [1][5]. Group 1: Impact of China's Restrictions - China's limitations on the export of key rare earth elements directly affect U.S. capabilities to produce high-performance magnets, which are crucial for defense and high-end manufacturing sectors [3][6]. - The U.S. relies on imported finished rare earth magnets, which contain processed dysprosium, but cannot import dysprosium itself due to Chinese restrictions [5][10]. - Without access to high-purity dysprosium or its oxides, the U.S. struggles to produce advanced magnets domestically, hindering its ability to establish a self-sufficient rare earth supply chain [6][10]. Group 2: U.S. Industry Challenges - The U.S. aims to develop a complete rare earth industry chain, from mining to metal refining and magnet production, but faces significant challenges due to the lack of access to critical raw materials [8][12]. - Even with mining operations underway, the U.S. lacks the necessary separation technology and capacity to obtain high-purity dysprosium, making it difficult to achieve independence from Chinese supplies [10][12]. - The inability to secure essential raw materials means that the U.S. can only import finished products, akin to receiving "bread" without the ability to produce the "flour" and "yeast" needed for self-sufficiency [10][12].

Core Insights - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is accelerating, with a 14.0% year-on-year increase in cross-border RMB payments in the first half of the year, making it the second-largest trade financing currency and the third-largest payment currency globally [1] - The inclusion of RMB in the International Air Transport Association's (IATA) clearing system marks a significant milestone in the functional recognition of RMB in international financial clearing [1] - The transformation of RMB from a payment tool to an operational currency is evident, particularly among European companies deeply engaged in the Chinese market [2] Group 1: RMB's Role in Global Trade - RMB is increasingly embedded in global industrial division and multinational corporate operations, transitioning from a foreign exchange currency to an operational currency for European enterprises [2] - The local procurement, production, and sales cycles established by companies like Volkswagen and BMW in China create a natural demand for RMB as a key currency for pricing, settlement, and asset-liability management [2] Group 2: Corporate Adoption of RMB - The core motivation for multinational companies to adopt RMB has shifted from merely saving on exchange costs to enhancing risk management and optimizing global liquidity structures [3] - By integrating RMB into their internal settlement systems as a functional currency, companies achieve valuable natural hedging against financial risks from exchange rate fluctuations [3] Group 3: Institutional and Market Developments - The RMB internationalization process has made significant progress in institutional frameworks and market product innovation, transitioning from a regional payment method to a global trading and reserve network [4] - The establishment of offshore RMB market cooperation in bilateral mechanisms indicates a shift from spontaneous market behavior to coordinated policy efforts [4] Group 4: Global Currency System Diversification - The diversification of the global currency system, driven by changes in the global economic landscape and geopolitical factors, presents a "window of opportunity" for RMB [5] - A report indicates that 59% of sovereign institutions plan to increase their holdings of Chinese assets over the next five years, with North American sovereign funds showing a 73% willingness to invest [5] Group 5: Central Bank Perspectives - For central banks like the European Central Bank and the German Central Bank, the rationale for allocating RMB assets lies in achieving diversification of reserve assets [6] - RMB government bonds exhibit low correlation with Western assets, providing strategic hedging value and independent attributes in investment portfolios [6]

Group 1: Policy Overview - The Hainan Free Trade Port's closure policy aims to enhance market vitality and openness by reducing institutional costs through "zero tariffs," trade management relaxation, and efficient supervision[5] - "One line open" allows free movement of goods between Hainan and foreign countries, while "two lines control" regulates goods entering the mainland, ensuring tax security and preventing smuggling[5][17] - The proportion of "zero tariff" goods will increase from 1,900 to approximately 6,600 items, covering 74% of all tariff items, significantly reducing import costs[9] Group 2: Economic Impact - Hainan's policies are expected to attract global resources, enhancing its role as an international resource allocation hub[5] - The personal income tax rate for high-end and scarce talents in Hainan is capped at 15%, significantly lower than the mainland's 25%, attracting high-income individuals[27] - The corporate income tax rate for eligible enterprises is reduced to 15%, encouraging talent retention and investment[29] Group 3: Industry Development - Hainan's focus on processing and value-added tax exemptions is driving the clustering of high-tech enterprises and industrial upgrades, particularly in energy, digital economy, and biomedicine[24][30] - Key industrial parks in Hainan, such as Yangpu and Haikou, are becoming hubs for high-end industries, contributing over 30% of total tax revenue despite occupying less than 1% of the land area[32] Group 4: Regional Collaboration - The "front store, back factory" model is evolving, with Hainan serving as an order and trade settlement center while surrounding provinces handle large-scale production[45] - Enhanced logistics capabilities at Hainan's ports and airports are expected to create a complementary port cluster with Guangdong and Guangxi, improving regional cooperation and trade efficiency[45]

Group 1: Manufacturing Industry Trends - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aimed to maintain a stable proportion of manufacturing, while the "15th Five-Year Plan" shifts to maintaining a "reasonable proportion," indicating a potential decline from the current level, which is double the OECD average[2][10]. - In 2024, China's nominal manufacturing value added is projected to account for 24.9% of GDP, significantly higher than the OECD average of 12.4%[2][10]. - From 2011 to 2020, China's manufacturing value added as a percentage of GDP decreased from 31.6% to 25.7%, but the decline has slowed since 2020 due to real estate cycle adjustments[2][11]. Group 2: Investment and Growth Rates - The annualized growth rate of China's real manufacturing value added (PPP) from 2021 to 2024 is expected to be 4.6%, surpassing the global average of 1.7% during the same period[2][20]. - High-end manufacturing investment is projected to grow at an annualized rate of 12.2% from 2021 to 2024, outpacing the overall manufacturing investment growth rate of 9.5%[3][26]. - Traditional manufacturing sectors are expected to see an investment growth rate increase from 2.9% during the "13th Five-Year Plan" to an average of 8.9% from 2021 to 2024[3][27]. Group 3: Emerging Industries and Future Prospects - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes breakthroughs in high-tech industries and aims to enhance competitiveness in sectors like AI, hydrogen energy, and quantum information[3][29]. - The production of new energy vehicles is projected to rise from 340,000 units in 2015 to 13.168 million units in 2024, reflecting significant growth in the sector[3][46]. - The brain-computer interface industry is expected to grow from 2.33 billion yuan in 2022 to 3.2 billion yuan in 2024, with an annual growth rate of 17.2%[3][48].

Core Viewpoint - The Hainan closure policy is a significant initiative in China's new round of reform and opening-up, characterized by unprecedented depth in institutional design and broad policy coverage [1] Group 1: Policy Framework - Hainan's free trade port policy system is built on "zero tariffs, low tax rates, and simplified tax systems," which significantly reduces operational costs for enterprises [1] - The financial sector in Hainan adopts a regulatory model of "freeing up the first line and controlling the second line," facilitating the liberalization and convenience of cross-border capital flows [1] - The establishment of the EF account system provides an upgraded infrastructure for financial openness [1] Group 2: Economic Opportunities - The policy dividends are expected to make Hainan a hotspot for industrial migration, with high-end manufacturing, air logistics, and digital economy industries likely to cluster in the region, creating new economic growth points [1] - Hainan's measures to relax visa policies and optimize the tourism environment effectively stimulate overseas consumption and enhance its status as an international tourism consumption center [1] Group 3: Demographic Changes - The relaxation of household registration policies and talent introduction plans in Hainan significantly promote population structure optimization and urbanization processes [1] - The influx of high-quality talent provides strong support for the construction of Hainan's free trade port [1] Group 4: Challenges and Future Outlook - The Hainan closure policy faces risks and challenges from deteriorating international economic and trade relations and rising global trade protectionism, which may restrict population migration [1] - Overall, the Hainan closure policy is expected to significantly enhance Hainan's position in the global value chain and inject new momentum into China's high-quality economic development [1] - Hainan needs to continue deepening policy implementation, strengthening risk prevention, and promoting the continuous achievement of new results in free trade port construction [1]