中金研究 在全球股市经验的首篇 《股市长牛之美国经验：呵护成长性》 ，我们复盘了1980年代以来美国股市长牛的历史经验。本篇作为系列报告的第二篇，我 们回顾1990年代资产泡沫破灭后的十多年间，日本股市结构性上涨的历史启示。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 1990年后，日本经历"失落的二十年"。但我们认为，仅从整体角度看日本宏观经济基本面和股市，忽视了其中的结构性转变和投资机会，这二十年中，日 本股市出现明显的"结构性"行情。 日本结构性上涨背后反映的是日本经济的结构性转变，是企业出海、高技术主导和公司治理改善共同作用的结果。 如果把日本对国内地产和通缩暴露较 多的"老经济"行业去除，"新经济"行业指数在90年代后趋势走强。其中，工业、科技、通信，甚至大消费板块表现较好。除资产端外，稳定的资金，尤其 是长线资金和海外资金入市，对日本结构性上涨形成资金端支撑。 海外暴露： 90年代日本出口保持高增，对外直接投资增加。制造业，特别是高端制造业，是日本对外投资的主要方向，带动日本海外生产和销售占比提 升。日本海外投资具有更高的利润率，改善企业整体盈利能力。 高技术主导： 日本国内宏观层面长期低迷并 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：太阳投研札记） 洪灏在《展望 2026：持而盈之》上下篇中，从全球经济格局、中美市场表现、政策走向及资产配置等 多个维度，分析了 2026 年市场的风险与机遇，核心观点可总结为以下两大方面： 特朗普发起的全球贸易战未能改善美国贸易赤字，反而因中国制造业优势和稀土行业整合，让美国谈判 筹码不足；关税政策推高美国通胀预期，进一步复杂化美联储决策。 美国经济与市场：风险积聚，泡沫隐现 1. 货币政策失去独立性，陷入 "三难" 困境 美联储货币政策逐渐从属于美国财政政策，因美国政府债台高筑，美联储需通过购债为财政赤字融资， 其决策受经济增长、通胀高企和金融稳定三重矛盾制约。 美国回购市场流动性紧张，隔夜逆回购工具近乎归零，美联储大概率将停止量化紧缩并重启扩表，但扩 表方式（买短端 / 长端债券）将影响资产价格走势，短期利好市场，长期恐因久期问题难改美股冲高回 落趋势。 2.经济周期步入晚期，半导体与经济周期背离 量化模型显示美国经济未来数月将放缓，而半导体周期仍在冲高，美股涨幅集中于少数科技巨头和 AI 相关企业，市场宽度持续收窄，科技股估值已接近甚至超过 2000 年互联网泡沫水平。 美国私 ...

62家优质企业、107个成熟型人才岗位、需求总人数超350名……11月24日，镇江市2025成熟型人才 引进揭榜对接活动举办，市人社部门向27家参会人力资源服务机构集中发布"英雄帖"，通过政府搭台、 企业发榜、人力资源机构"揭榜""接单"的方式，为镇江"四群八链"重点产业注入成熟型人才动能，助力 城市产业升级与高质量发展。 成熟型人才是企业发展的"稳定器"与"催化剂"，也是城市发展的关键"助推器"。我市人社部门连续 4年举办紧缺急需成熟型人才揭榜对接活动，累计为企业精准匹配解决240余个中高端紧缺人才需求，有 效打通人才供给与企业需求的堵点断点，为产业发展提供了坚实的人才支撑。 "今天的活动，既是我市人才需求的一次集中发布，也是我们与人力资源服务机构携手合作、共谋 发展的重要契机。"市人社局党委书记、局长艾晓晖表示，希望广大人力资源机构发挥平台力量和资源 优势，为企业搭建一条全流程、定制化、专业化的人才供应链。我市人社部门将不断健全常态化、精准 化的服务对接机制，着力营造一流的人才发展生态。 近年来，我市锚定产业强市战略，纵深推进"876"创新引领工程，产业升级提速、发展质效提升， 对紧缺的成熟型人才的需求愈 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of deepening the market-oriented allocation of factors as a key step in building a unified national market and a high-level socialist market economy system [1][5]. Group 1: Background and Significance - The need to improve resource allocation efficiency, especially for scarce resources, is highlighted as essential for maximizing production and benefits [2]. - The transition from a government-led development model to a market-driven approach has revealed structural contradictions, necessitating reforms to enhance economic efficiency [3]. - The current phase of high-quality development in China requires breaking local protectionism and market segmentation to unleash market potential and enhance economic dynamism [2][3]. Group 2: Existing Issues in Factor Market - The factor market's development is lagging compared to commodity and service markets, with issues such as low marketization and systemic barriers to orderly flow [6]. - Local protectionism and market fragmentation hinder the free flow of factors across regions, affecting overall economic efficiency [6][10]. - The lack of unified standards for evaluating and trading factors, particularly in land, labor, and capital, contributes to inefficiencies [6][9]. Group 3: Reform Pilot Initiatives - The pilot reforms aim to explore innovative systems in key areas like technology, data, and talent, facilitating a virtuous cycle between education, technology, and finance [7]. - The initiative is expected to enhance innovation and industrial upgrading by reallocating factors towards high-end manufacturing and green industries [7][8]. - The pilot projects are strategically located in ten regions with strong development foundations, aiming to address common challenges in factor mobility and support the construction of a unified national market [10][12]. Group 4: Unified Factor Resource Market - Establishing a unified factor resource market is crucial for reducing resource misallocation and waste, promoting fair competition [9][10]. - The unified market will standardize property rights, entry and exit conditions, pricing mechanisms, and regulatory frameworks across regions [9][10]. - This approach is expected to enhance the efficiency and resilience of the national economy by facilitating the optimal allocation of resources [10]. Group 5: Future Directions and Systematic Reforms - The reforms should focus on enhancing the synergy between traditional and new factors, ensuring a dynamic balance that supports new productivity [13][14]. - Key areas for reform include establishing clear property rights, improving price formation mechanisms, and creating a unified market system [15][16]. - Continuous efforts are needed to break down administrative and regional barriers, ensuring a conducive environment for factor mobility and fair trading [16].

报告还显示，过去5年，中国高端制造业上市公司不断开拓海外业务，海外收入持续增长。2020年至 2024年，高端制造业上市公司海外收入从20926亿元增长至43113亿元，过去5年复合增长率为19.81%， 明显高于同期全体A股上市公司海外收入的复合增长率；海外收入占A股上市公司海外总收入的比例从 32.53%增长至41.96%，体现出高端制造业正逐步发展成为中国企业出海的主力军。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 报告：中国高端制造业上市公司总资产规模持续增长 编辑：王永乐 中新社北京11月14日电 (记者 陈康亮)中国上市公司协会14日发布《中国上市公司高端制造业发展报告 (2025)》(下称报告)称，中国高端制造业上市公司家数由2020年的1661家增加至2024年的2503家，高端 制造业总体资产规模和收入水平持续增长。 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 报告显示，截至2024年底，高端制造业上市公司的总资产规模达到27.24万亿元(人民币，下同)，占A股 上市公司总资产的6.07%，较2023年末增长6.13%，较2020年末增长68.79%，资产规模增速较快。 高端制造业上市公司的收入规模持续增长，由2020年的9 ...

资产规模增速快，发展韧性强 截至2024年底，高端制造业上市公司的总资产规模达到27.24万亿元，占A股上市公司总资产的6.07%， 较2023年末同比增长6.13%，较2020年末增长68.79%。年均复合增长率为13.98%，高于A股整体复合增 长率9.40%，资产规模增速较快。 收入规模持续增长，由2020年的9.36万亿元增长至2024年的15.41万亿 元，复合增长率为13.27%，增速显著高于GDP增速，实现净利润的复合增长率为12.28%，盈利水平整 体有较大提升，表明高端制造业公司仍处于快速发展阶段，表现出了强劲的发展韧性。 智通财经APP获悉，11月14日，中国上市公司协会发布《中国上市公司高端制造业发展报告(2025)》。 报告显示，过去5年，在国家战略支持和精准产业政策的引领下，在国际产能合作深化及企业内生动力 的驱动下，我国高端制造业上市公司家数由2020年的1,661家增加至2024年的2,503家，复合增长率为 10.80%，同期高于A股上市公司数量复合增长率6.52%;总市值达到32.47万亿元。高端制造业总体资产规 模和收入水平持续增长，资本结构稳健，行业整体处于由高速发展向高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new rise of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is driven by the "New Four Bulls" logic, which includes capital inflow, technological innovation, institutional reform, and consumption upgrade [1][2]. Group 1: New Four Bulls Logic - Capital inflow is a significant factor driving the market [2]. - Technological innovation is expected to play a crucial role in market dynamics [2]. - Institutional reform is anticipated to enhance market efficiency and attractiveness [2]. - Consumption upgrade reflects the changing consumer behavior and spending patterns [2]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The "New Four Bulls" market trend is expected to gradually unfold along an upward trajectory, with the market center gradually rising, maintaining a "slow bull" pattern through 2026 [2]. - Key investment themes will revolve around technological self-reliance, industrial upgrades, and resource security, with opportunities identified in AI, semiconductors, computers, primary products, precious metals, new energy, high-end manufacturing, humanoid robots, and low-altitude economy [2]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Economic Environment - The U.S. is projected to be in a rate-cutting cycle over the next two to three years, while China is expected to implement a dual easing of fiscal and monetary policies, creating a favorable external environment [3]. - By 2026, China's monetary policy is anticipated to remain accommodative, with a potential 50 basis point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and continued interest rate cuts [3]. - The easing monetary policy is expected to positively impact macroeconomic stability and capital markets, supporting growth, employment, and expectations [3]. Group 4: Saudi-China Investment Cooperation - The Saudi stock exchange is focused on deepening capital cooperation opportunities between Saudi Arabia and China, enhancing connectivity [3]. - China's direct investment in Saudi Arabia is rapidly increasing, indicating a growing partnership in both scale and strategic depth [3]. - The Saudi stock exchange has signed memorandums of understanding with Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges to promote bilateral capital flow [5].

Core Insights - The 8th China International Import Expo (CIIE) is currently ongoing, with six countries including Thailand, UAE, Nigeria, Georgia, Sweden, and Colombia participating as guest countries [1][7] - Sweden, as a first-time guest country, showcased high-end manufacturing and green technology products, blending technology with culture [1] - Colombia, also a returning participant, presented its cultural charm through dance performances and food tastings, highlighting the growing scale and importance of the expo for Colombian businesses [5] Group 1 - The CIIE serves as a significant platform for international cooperation, with companies aiming to establish new partnerships with Chinese enterprises [3] - The expo features a diverse range of products from various countries, from Thai rice to heavy trucks, showcasing the strengths of each participating nation [7] - The increasing number of exhibitors and attendees at the expo indicates its expanding influence and importance in global trade [5][7] Group 2 - The UAE pavilion attracted many visitors with distinctive cultural performances, emphasizing the country's unique offerings [7] - The participation of 29 Colombian companies at the expo reflects the growing interest and investment in the Chinese market [5] - The event highlights the role of China as a global leader in innovation, attracting international businesses to engage and collaborate [3]

Core Insights - The manufacturing industry is facing significant challenges in workforce transformation and talent supply due to aging populations and declining interest from younger generations in manufacturing jobs [1] - A report from the World Economic Forum indicates that over 40% of Generation Z employees in manufacturing are considering leaving their jobs within the next three to six months [1] - There is a mismatch between the skills taught in educational institutions and the needs of the manufacturing industry, exacerbated by rapid technological advancements [1] Group 1: Talent Shortage and Demand - The manufacturing sector globally is experiencing a talent shortage, particularly in developed countries, where young people prefer more comfortable jobs in finance rather than in the manufacturing sector [3] - In the U.S., a report from the Manufacturing Institute and Deloitte forecasts a need for up to 3.8 million manufacturing workers from 2024 to 2033, with approximately 1.9 million positions expected to remain unfilled [3] - The industry requires talent with foundational scientific knowledge and digital skills to effectively utilize advanced technologies like AI and automation [4] Group 2: Role of Education and Innovation - Universities and companies should play distinct roles in research and development, with universities focusing on foundational research that can lead to innovative ideas, while companies concentrate on short-term R&D goals [5] - The World Manufacturing Foundation reported that 29.9 million workers in advanced manufacturing will need to change their skills due to trends like green transformation and new technology applications [5] - There is a growing need for interdisciplinary and comprehensive talent that can adapt to rapid changes in the industry, rather than individuals with expertise in only one field [5][6] Group 3: Lifelong Learning - Educational institutions should aim to cultivate talent capable of lifelong learning, preparing individuals for long-term career development rather than just their first job [6]

Core Argument - The mainstream economic view that prioritizes the development of productive services as the leading industry is outdated; instead, a strong manufacturing sector, particularly high-end manufacturing, is essential for a country's economic strength and competitiveness [1][2][3]. Group 1: Historical Context and Economic Theories - Historically, no country has become a global power solely through services; all strong nations have relied on manufacturing [3]. - The "Pietro-Clark Theorem" suggests that as income rises, labor shifts from primary to secondary and then to tertiary industries, but this view has misled global industrial structure adjustments [1][3]. - The U.S. began to refocus on manufacturing as a strategic economic initiative during the Obama administration, indicating a shift back to prioritizing manufacturing [2]. Group 2: Importance of Manufacturing - The rise of the Netherlands in the 17th century was closely tied to its manufacturing strength, particularly in textiles, which was later undermined by an overemphasis on commerce and finance [3]. - The experience of Hong Kong illustrates that a lack of strong manufacturing can limit economic development, despite having competitive service sectors [4]. - A robust manufacturing base is crucial for national security; countries without strong manufacturing capabilities risk vulnerability [4]. Group 3: Current Global Trends - The global competition for economic dominance is increasingly centered on high-end and advanced manufacturing sectors, with major developed countries vying for resources in these areas [2][5]. - The U.S. maintains a competitive edge in high-end manufacturing, particularly in defense and aerospace, as evidenced by the production of advanced military aircraft [4]. - The urgency for China to develop a manufacturing-centric industrial system is emphasized, highlighting a consensus on the importance of this strategy for long-term economic stability [5].