以下文章来源于紫金天风期货研究所 ，作者刘晓元 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 作者 | 刘晓元 来源 | 紫金天风期货研究所 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 历史复盘显示，历次大宗商品牛市并不存在"金先动→银跟上→铜确认→油引暴→农收尾"的严格板块轮动顺序。唯一相对普遍的规律是农 产品往往在牛市后期表现强势，其他板块的启动顺序和表现强度，均取决于当时的宏观与商品自身基本面。 紫金天风期货研究所 . 对于本轮上涨行情来说，我们监测的大宗商品市场情绪指标已经接近过热预警线，因此短期内商品市场回调风险有所加大。从资金行为 上看，资金自2025年6月起持续流入商品市场，近期呈现从贵金属、有色向其他板块扩散的迹象。在板块配置角度，我们跟踪的Smart Money仍维持贵金属与有色多头、黑色空头，农产品已由空转多，并开始试探性布局化工。 紫金天风期货研究所官方订阅号 2026年能否迎来一轮商品轮动式的牛市，核心仍需观察宏观政策、产业基本面改善情况以及资金在板块间的接力流向。短期需警惕市场 整体情绪过热后的技术性回调。中长期配置仍需回归各板块的宏观驱动与产业逻辑，而非押注于固定轮动顺序。 MANUFACTURE 20 ...

国技期货 商品量化CTA周度跟踪 国投期货研究院 金融工程组 2025/12/23 有色截面动量分化 商品本周多头占比小幅上升,主要表现 贵金属因子强度维持高位,农产品板块 小幅下降。目前,截面偏强的板块是贵 金属和有色,黑色和能源也位于中性以 上区间,截面偏弱的是农产品。具体来 看,黄金时序动量小幅上升,白银的持 仓量边际上升幅度更大,持续处于偏强 区间,截面两端分化扩大。有色板块短 周期动量回升,期限结构分化收窄,截 面上铜和锡均偏强。黑色板块,时序动 量显示边际回落,铁矿和螺纹持仓量维 持中性,焦煤焦炭持仓量仍然位于高位 。能化板块短周期动量因子回升,纯碱 处于截面偏空端。农产品方面,油粕截 面分化收窄,虽然时序动量层面下行趋 势边际减弱,但持仓量处于近期低位。 玻 寶 策略净值方面,上周供给因子上行 1.51%,需求因子走强1.62%,库存因子 走弱0.13%,价差因子走高0.29%,利润 因子走强0.21%，合成因子上行1.38%， 本周综合信号空头。基本面因子上,浮 法玻璃企业开工环比持平,供给端中 性;二线城市商品房成交数量增多,需 求端中性偏多;河北、湖北浮法玻璃企 业小幅累库,库存端多头强度 ...

证券研究报告 固收视角 生产端有所收敛 华泰研究 2025 年 12 月 22 日│中国内地 | 张继强 | | --- | 吴宇航* 研究员 SAC No. S0570518110002 SFC No. AMB145 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 研究员 SAC No. S0570521090004 wuyuhang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 吴靖*，PhD 研究员 SAC No. S0570523070006 wujing018437@htsc.com 李梓豪* 联系人 SAC No. S0570124060040 lizihao@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 高频数据核心观点 12 月第三周，地产方面，地产成交热度小幅修复，但新房与二手房整体偏弱，叠加高基数影响，同比读数弱于前期， 房价有待改善，土地成交指标低位运行。生产端来看，工业方面，货运量韧性回落，生产开工率多数偏弱，地炼开工 率修复，焦化、高炉、汽车边际偏弱，基数对读数有扰动。建筑业方面，水泥与黑色供需偏弱运行，库存小幅去化， 沥青开工率 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Commodities Weekly Report - Report Date: December 22, 2025 - Author: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures - Investment Consulting Number: Z0019749 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03090299 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The overall commodity market rose slightly by 0.09% last week, with the black sector leading the gain at 3.04%, while the agricultural product sector fell by 2.12%. The liquidity environment is generally favorable, and the commodity market may run stably in the short - term [2][6]. - The dovish interest rate hike in Japan supported the US dollar index, but after the release of US economic and inflation data last week, market expectations for interest rate cuts increased, and short - term US dollar liquidity may remain stable. In China, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment and social retail sales slowed down in November, and economic growth continued to slow down moderately [2]. - Different commodity sectors have different short - term trends. The precious metals sector may be volatile and bullish; the non - ferrous metals sector may run stably; the black sector may fluctuate; the energy sector may fluctuate; the chemical sector's rebound space may be limited; and the agricultural products (oilseeds) sector may fluctuate [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: The overall commodity market rose slightly by 0.09% last week. The black, precious metals, energy - chemical, and non - ferrous sectors rose by 3.04%, 1.9%, 0.91%, and 0.79% respectively, while the agricultural product sector fell by 2.12% [2][6]. - **Top - Gaining and Top - Losing Varieties**: The top - gaining varieties were coking coal (9%), coke (8.31%), and PTA (4.45%); the top - losing varieties were rapeseed oil (- 6.45%), soybean oil (- 3.53%), and apples (- 3.36%) [2][6]. - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, with only the agricultural product and precious metals sectors showing mainly declining volatility [2][6]. - **Fund Flow**: The overall market scale decreased slightly last week, and the non - ferrous, energy - chemical, and black sectors all had net capital outflows [2][6]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: US economic data last week showed an economic cooling trend, and the November CPI data decline exceeded expectations. The core CPI reached a new low since March 2021. Fed Chair candidates Hasset and Waller believe there is still room for interest rate cuts. The sector may be volatile and bullish in the short - term [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Overseas economic data is weak, interest rate cut expectations are rising, and the US dollar index is under pressure, with the macro environment generally positive. The inventory continued to decline last week, but the decline rate narrowed, and the spot premium was mainly weakening. However, there is still a risk of smelting contraction. The sector may run stably in the short - term [3]. - **Black Sector**: The apparent demand for rebar improved last week, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. Steel mills' profitability is poor, and due to environmental protection factors, the decline in hot metal production is still large, but steel mill profits are showing marginal improvement, and the production - cut trend may slow down. For raw materials, the global shipment of iron ore increased month - on - month and was stronger than the same period last year, and the domestic arrival volume rebounded; the total coking coal inventory increased slightly. After the oversold rebound, the market sentiment has become cautious, and the sector may fluctuate in the short - term [3]. - **Energy Sector**: The Berlin negotiation between the US and Ukraine last week was very positive, leading to market concerns that an agreement may increase the supply pressure of Russian oil. EIA data showed that although crude oil inventory decreased, gasoline and distillate oil inventories increased unexpectedly. The supply - loose pattern always puts pressure on oil prices. However, the escalation of the US - Venezuela situation and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical issue may bring phased risk premiums. Oil prices may fluctuate in the short - term [3]. - **Chemical Sector**: For polyester varieties, the expectation of tight supply led to a significant increase in PX positions and price. Stimulated by raw material price increases, downstream buyers replenished inventory at low prices, and polyester filament inventory decreased. The short - term polyester start - up rate will be maintained, but it is expected to decline later due to mid - line inventory accumulation and the Spring Festival factor. The short - term cost support is strong, but the rebound space may be limited under the background of a downward demand period [4]. - **Agricultural Products Sector**: Recently, the weather in South America has continued to improve, and the probability of La Nina turning into ENSO neutral in the first quarter of next year is 68%. The trading logic has returned to concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a bumper harvest in South America. The US soybean futures price has fallen back to the previous bottom range, and soybean meal may follow the adjustment in the short - term. The global rapeseed supply - demand pattern is loose, and the weak rapeseed oil has also led to the weakening of soybean and palm oil. The Malaysian palm oil market still faces high inventory pressure. Although the production decreased month - on - month in November, the decline was small, and the demand was even worse. The oilseeds sector may fluctuate in the short - term [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally had positive returns, with the total return of gold ETFs at 0.07%. The returns of individual gold ETFs such as Qianhai Kaiyuan Gold ETF and Tianhong Shanghai Gold ETF were 1.16% and 0.98% respectively [38]. - The energy - chemical ETF (Jianxin Yisheng Zhengshang Energy Chemical Futures ETF) had a return of 2.71% [38]. - The soybean meal ETF (Huaxia Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF) had a return of - 1.32% [38]. - The non - ferrous ETF (Dacheng Non - Ferrous Metals Futures ETF) had a return of - 0.66% [38]. - The silver fund (Guotou Ruixin Silver Futures (LOF)) had a return of 3.47% [38]. - The total return of commodity ETFs was 0.24% [38].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the overall price index for bulk commodities in China is expected to show a trend of low first and high later, stabilizing and recovering, reflecting a healthier and more sustainable economic structure [1] - The average price index for bulk commodities in China for 2025 is projected to be 112.1 points, a slight decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous year [1] - Among the 50 monitored bulk commodities, 10 are expected to see price increases, with notable rises in neodymium oxide (43.4%), refined tin (20.6%), and corrugated paper (18.5%) [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous price index is expected to stand out with an average of 131 points, an increase of 4.2% year-on-year, driven by high growth in high-tech manufacturing and equipment sectors, alongside supply disruptions from incidents like the mudslide at Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine [1] - The black, energy, chemical, and mineral indices are projected to decline, with average values of 78.8 points, 99.1 points, 102.7 points, and 73.9 points respectively, reflecting decreases of 7.5%, 9.9%, 10.2%, and 10.6% [2] - The agricultural product price index is expected to fluctuate downwards, averaging 96.7 points, a slight decrease of 0.4%, attributed to effective implementation of national food security strategies and balanced supply and demand for key agricultural products [2] Group 3 - The overall stability of the bulk commodity market is highlighted, with a clear transition between old and new growth drivers, supported by government policies aimed at promoting consumption and stabilizing growth [3] - The resilience of the Chinese economy and its substantial domestic demand potential are seen as the strongest foundation for the global bulk commodity market moving forward into 2026 [3] - The conference focused on enhancing international influence and building credible trade rules, discussing future trends, challenges, and opportunities in global bulk commodity trade [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the proportion of long positions in commodities decreased slightly. The factor strength of the black and chemical sectors declined, while that of the non - ferrous sector increased slightly. The non - ferrous sector is relatively strong in cross - section, and the chemical and agricultural product sectors are relatively weak [3]. - For the CTA strategy, the signals vary across different commodities. For example, the comprehensive signal for methanol is short, for glass is long, for iron ore changes from long to short, and for lead remains short [3][9][11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Commodities in General - This week, the proportion of long positions in commodities decreased slightly. The factor strength of the black and chemical sectors declined, while that of the non - ferrous sector increased slightly. The non - ferrous sector is relatively strong in cross - section, and the chemical and agricultural product sectors are relatively weak [3]. - In terms of strategy net value, the demand factor weakened by 0.01%, the inventory factor increased by 0.36%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.01%. The comprehensive signal this week is short [3]. Black Sector - The short - cycle momentum of the black sector decreased. The term structure shows narrowing differentiation. The positions of coking coal and coke remained low, and the short - cycle momentum of iron ore reversed and declined [3]. - In terms of strategy net value, last week the inventory factor decreased by 0.39%, the profit factor strengthened by 0.74%, and this week the comprehensive signal is long [9]. Non - Ferrous Sector - The short - cycle momentum of the non - ferrous sector increased marginally, and the cross - section momentum differentiation narrowed. Copper and zinc are relatively strong, and tin is relatively weak in cross - section [3]. - The time - series momentum of gold declined, the position of silver remained high, and the cross - section differentiation at both ends widened [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - The long - cycle momentum factor of the energy and chemical sector decreased, and ethylene glycol is at the short end in cross - section [3]. Agricultural Product Sector - The cross - section differentiation of oil and meal narrowed, and the position of soybean oil decreased marginally [3]. Glass - In terms of strategy net value, last week the inventory factor decreased by 0.39%, the profit factor strengthened by 0.74%, and this week the comprehensive signal is long. The production of float glass enterprises, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized Chinese cities, and the continuous destocking of float glass enterprises all release long signals. The spot price of glass is neutral, and the profit of glass remains short [9]. Iron Ore - In terms of strategy net value, last week the supply factor decreased by 0.22%, the comprehensive factor weakened by 0.04%, and this week the comprehensive signal changes from long to short. The cumulative year - on - year decline of iron ore production has narrowed, the port daily dredging volume has decreased, the inventory of port iron ore and trade ore has accumulated, and the spot price center has moved down [11]. Lead - In terms of strategy net value, last week the supply factor increased by 0.02%, the demand factor weakened by 0.46%, the inventory factor decreased by 0.5%, the spread factor weakened by 0.33%, the synthetic factor decreased by 0.32%, and this week the comprehensive signal remains short. The profit of recycled lead has recovered, the inventory of lead has decreased, the position of the main contract of Shanghai lead has decreased, and the spread of lead has moved down [11].

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 28 日 从信念到模型验证：估值与周期双轮驱动 ——大宗商品中观轮动系列（二） | 虞堪 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 | yukan@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 邵婉嫕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | 李翔云（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03149627 | lixiangyun@gtht.com | 报告导读： 商品中观轮动的研究初衷，是将"主观+量化"理念有机结合并付诸实践。我们希望尽可能降低策略 中因子、参数及模型的特异性，注重策略的可解释性及可归因性，给出经得起时间验证的模型。我们构建 的月频品种簇中观轮动模型，样本内平均年化收益率 17.79%，夏普比率 1.44，回撤-5.70%，月度胜率 68.98%；样本外 2025 年 1-11 月总收益录得 15.43%，回撤录得 1.09%，月度胜率 70%，仅三个月录得负 收益率。 本篇报告是中观轮动系列的模型搭建部分： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Purpose - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic. It is for internal company use only and does not constitute personal investment advice [1]. 2. Market Data 2.1. Commodity Prices and Weekly Changes | Asset Class | Sub - variety | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Commodities | Iron ore | 785.50 | 1.68% | | | Corn | 2195.00 | 0.46% | | | Rebar | 3057.00 | 0.13% | | | PTA | 4666.00 | - 0.72% | | | Palm oil | 8550.00 | - 1.09% | | | Polysilicon | 53360.00 | - 1.27% | | | Copper | 85660.00 | - 1.43% | | | Crude oil | 447.40 | - 2.19% | | | Aluminum | 21340.00 | - 2.29% | | | Methanol | 2004.00 | - 2.48% | | | Soybean meal | 3012.00 | - 2.59% | | | Gold | 926.94 | - 2.75% | | | Ethylene glycol | 3808.00 | - 2.91% | | | PVC | 4456.00 | - 3.30% | | | Live pigs | 11350.00 | - 3.61% | | | Glass | 987.00 | - 4.36% | | | Silver | 11680.00 | - 5.62% | | | Coking coal | 1103.00 | - 7.47% | 2.2. Stock Indexes and Weekly Changes | Stock Index | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai 50 | 2955.85 | - 2.72% | | CSI 300 | 4453.61 | - 3.77% | | CSI 500 | 6817.41 | - 5.78% | | FTSE 100 | 9539.71 | - 1.64% | | S&P 500 | 6602.99 | - 1.95% | | France CAC40 | 7982.65 | - 2.29% | | NASDAQ Index | 22273.08 | - 2.74% | | Nikkei 225 | 48625.88 | - 3.48% | | Hang Seng Index | 25220.02 | - 5.09% | 2.3. Bonds and Weekly Changes | Bond | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.59 | + 0.62bp | | 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.82 | + 0.14bp | | 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.43 | - 0.45bp | 2.4. Foreign Exchange and Weekly Changes | Foreign Exchange | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | US Dollar Index | 100.15 | + 0.87% | | US Dollar Intermediate Price | 7.09 | + 0.07% | | Euro - US Dollar | 1.15 | - 0.93% | [2] 3. Commodity Views 3.1. Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures** - Strategy View: 3 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Nvidia's better - than - expected performance eases AI bubble concerns; Fed officials' remarks boost rate - cut expectations; loose expectations remain, and the stock index may stage a phased recovery; significant short - term decline with strong downside support. - Bearish Logic: Fed's hawkish stance causes liquidity expectations to fluctuate; rising US Dollar Index suppresses global risk appetite; AI bubble controversy affects tech stocks; fading speculative sentiment leads to reduced trading volume [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures** - Strategy View: 1 out of 7 institutions is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Weak fundamental data and insufficient domestic demand support loose expectations; central bank's restart of Treasury bond trading signals policy support; medium - to - long - term allocation demand pulls interest rates down; limited incremental policies at the end of the year. - Bearish Logic: Low expectation of further rate cuts, lack of upward momentum; tight external market liquidity affects the bond market; new redemption rules suppress the bond market, especially 30 - year bonds [4]. 3.2. Energy Sector - **Crude Oil** - Strategy View: 0 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: OPEC + suspends production increase, tightening supply expectations; northern hemisphere's heating season boosts demand; geopolitical risks in South America remain; short - term disruption of Libyan exports; Fed officials' calming remarks boost rate - cut expectations; potential stabilization after short - term oversold. - Bearish Logic: Persistent global supply surplus and inventory accumulation; fluctuating Fed rate - cut expectations and tight liquidity; overall slowdown in fourth - quarter demand; significant decline in geopolitical risks [5]. 3.3. Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Malaysia enters the production - reduction season, easing supply pressure; India's import profit recovery may increase procurement; Indonesia's B50 policy boosts long - term biodiesel demand; widening international soybean - palm oil price difference makes palm oil more cost - effective. - Bearish Logic: US cancellation of relevant energy offices is negative for biodiesel policies; weak Malaysian palm oil exports in November; large domestic inventory accumulation; winter consumption off - season and expected inventory build - up [5]. 3.4. Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Aluminum** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Low inventory provides price support; limited supply increase expected in 2026, maintaining a tight supply - demand balance; emerging sectors like energy storage drive long - term aluminum consumption. - Bearish Logic: AI bubble concerns affect metal performance; cooling Fed rate - cut expectations pressure metal prices; potential decline in photovoltaic production may suppress aluminum consumption; high prices squeeze processing profits; industry off - season affects demand and开工 [6]. 3.5. Chemical Sector - **Methanol** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Potential winter maintenance in Iran may reduce imports; attention to year - end maintenance of southwest gas - based producers; increased losses in coal - to - methanol production may force a reduction in operating loads; low valuation limits downside space. - Bearish Logic: Weakening macro - drivers lead to trading of weak fundamentals; high import arrivals and expected port inventory build - up; compressed MTO profits reduce methanol procurement; weakening coal - based cost support [6]. 3.6. Precious Metals Sector - **Gold** - Strategy View: 2 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Fed officials' dovish signals boost rate - cut expectations; geopolitical and policy uncertainties increase gold's safe - haven appeal; US debt credit issues weaken long - term US dollar confidence; global central banks' continuous gold purchases support long - term demand. - Bearish Logic: Large internal differences within the Fed lead to unclear policy guidance; better - than - expected non - farm payrolls strengthen the hawkish stance; improving US dollar liquidity may increase market risk appetite [7]. 3.7. Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Tight supply expectations of Australian coal may support import costs; potential decline in production after year - end production targets are met; increased demand from winter heating. - Bearish Logic: Supply - guarantee policies make the market cautious; increased steel mill losses lead to reduced hot metal production; significant increase in Mongolian coal customs clearance; more online auction failures indicate weak demand; high coking coal inventory in coke enterprises reduces restocking willingness [7].

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the mid - stream digital transformation progress, and also provides an overview of upstream, mid - stream, and downstream industries including price and activity changes, along with relevant policies in production and service industries [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Policy Information - In the production industry, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to build about 200 high - standard digital parks by 2027, achieving full digital transformation of above - scale industrial enterprises in the park, full coverage of industrial Internet applications, 100% digital transformation coverage of above - scale industrial enterprises, 100% dual - gigabit network coverage, and effective deployment and application of computing power infrastructure [1] - In the service industry, 12 departments including the Beijing Branch of the People's Bank of China issued a plan to support consumption in Beijing, including increasing bond market financing support, promoting the issuance of bonds by service - consumption enterprises, and expanding consumer credit [1] Upstream Industry - Black: Glass prices declined slightly [3] - Agriculture: Egg prices rebounded [3] - Real estate: The building materials price index rose slightly [3] Mid - stream Industry - Chemical: PX operation remained at a high level, while PTA operation declined [3] - Energy: Coal consumption of power plants increased slightly [3] - Infrastructure: Asphalt operation declined [3] Downstream Industry - Real estate: Seasonal decline in commercial housing sales in second - and third - tier cities [3] - Service: International flight frequencies decreased slightly [3] Key Industry Price Indicators - Agriculture: Corn price was 2161.4 yuan/ton with a 0.40% year - on - year increase; egg price was 6.5 yuan/kg with a 4.50% increase; palm oil price was 8700.0 yuan/ton with a - 0.68% change; cotton price was 14848.8 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase; pork average wholesale price was 17.9 yuan/kg with a - 0.94% change; copper price was 86020.0 yuan/ton with a - 0.95% change; zinc price was 22304.0 yuan/ton with a - 1.52% change [34] - Non - ferrous metals: Aluminum price was 21473.3 yuan/ton with a - 0.14% change; nickel price was 117383.3 yuan/ton with a - 2.92% change; another aluminum price was 17188.8 yuan/ton with a - 1.36% change [34] - Black metals: Steel price was 3161.3 yuan/ton with a 1.05% increase; iron ore price was 805.2 yuan/ton with a 1.71% increase; wire rod price was 3320.0 yuan/ton with a 0.23% increase; glass price was 13.7 yuan/square meter with a - 2.14% change [34] - Non - metals: Natural rubber price was 14891.7 yuan/ton with a 0.85% increase; China Plastic City price index was 768.1 with a - 0.51% change [34] - Energy: WTI crude oil price had a - 0.37% change; Brent crude oil price was 64.2 dollars/barrel with a 0.22% increase; liquefied natural gas price was 4182.0 yuan/ton with a - 0.33% change; coal price was 832.0 yuan/ton with no change [34] - Chemical: PTA price was 4628.8 yuan/ton with a - 0.18% change; polyethylene price was 7005.0 yuan/ton with a 0.41% increase; urea price was 1630.0 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase; soda ash price was 1218.6 yuan/ton with a 0.53% increase [34] - Real estate: The national cement price index was 137.3 with a 0.51% increase; the building materials composite index was 113.8 with a 1.49% increase; the national concrete price index was 90.8 with a - 0.07% change [34]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the proportion of short positions in commodities has rebounded, mainly due to the decline in the factor strength of the precious metals and non - ferrous sectors, while the black sector has recovered. The black sector is relatively strong in cross - section, while the non - ferrous and agricultural sectors are relatively weak [3]. - The comprehensive signals of methanol, float glass, iron ore, and lead have different trends this week, with methanol and float glass showing long signals, iron ore showing a short signal, and lead maintaining a short signal [5][8][11]. 3. Summary by Related Content Commodity Market Overview - In the precious metals sector, the time - series momentum of gold has declined, and the trading volume of silver has decreased significantly, with an expanding divergence at both ends of the cross - section. In the non - ferrous sector, the position factor has decreased marginally, the cross - section momentum divergence has narrowed, and lead is relatively weak in the cross - section. In the black sector, the positions of iron ore and rebar have decreased slightly, but the short - term momentum time - series has recovered, and rebar is relatively strong in the cross - section. In the energy sector, the short - term momentum factor has declined, and the chemical sector is at the relatively strong end of the cross - section. In the agricultural products sector, the cross - section divergence of oil and meal has narrowed, and the overall long - term momentum has stabilized slightly [3]. Strategy Net Value and Fundamental Factors - **Methanol**: Last week, the supply factor increased by 0.57%, the demand factor decreased by 0.40%, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.58%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.45%. This week, the comprehensive signal has turned long. In terms of fundamental factors, the supply side has turned neutral, the demand side has weakened from a long signal to neutral, the inventory side is long, and the spread side is slightly bearish [5]. - **Float Glass**: Last week, the profit factor increased by 0.05%, the spread factor weakened by 0.36%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.26%. This week, the comprehensive signal is long. The supply side is neutral, the demand side is slightly bearish, the inventory side is long, and the spread side has weakened significantly from a long signal to neutral [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the supply factor decreased by 0.2%, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.3%, and the comprehensive factor increased by 0.06%. This week, the comprehensive signal has turned short. The supply side remains bearish, the demand side has turned bearish, the inventory side has turned neutral, and the spread side remains neutral [11]. - **Lead**: Last week, the supply factor decreased by 0.18%, the demand factor weakened by 0.17%, the inventory factor decreased by 0.16%, the spread factor weakened by 0.07%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.14%. This week, the comprehensive signal remains short. The supply side has turned neutral, the inventory side remains bearish, and the spread side remains bearish [11].