Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the supply of corn is tight, supporting its price, but the increase in policy - based wheat supply and the increase in corn circulation may suppress the price. In the long - term, focus on import and domestic auction policies [3]. - In the short - term, the price of starch will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend due to tight raw material supply, but the slow recovery of downstream consumption may limit price increases. In the long - term, focus on downstream consumption rhythm [3]. - The international sugar market's fundamentals are slightly stronger, and the domestic market is affected by import policy discussions. There is hedging pressure on the upper side of the futures price [4]. - Cotton demand is expected to continue to improve, and new - season planting area in Xinjiang will decline, so it is suitable for long - term long positions [6]. - The process of egg production capacity reduction has slowed down, and the focus is on farmers' sentiment towards culling hens. Adopt a reverse spread strategy [9]. - The apple market maintains stable trading, with different situations in eastern and western regions, and the sales atmosphere in the consumer market is not strong [12]. - The supply of live pigs is still relatively loose, and the market is in the process of bottom - searching. Pay attention to the impact of production capacity reduction on market sentiment and the expected difference [12]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From March 16 - 20, 2026, the prices of corn in Changchun, Jinzhou, and other places remained mostly unchanged, and the price of starch in Heilongjiang and Weifang also remained stable. The corn basis decreased by 3, and the import profit decreased by 20. The starch basis decreased by 79, and the processing profit increased by 10 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short - term, the supply of corn is tight, but the increase in wheat supply and corn circulation may suppress the price. For starch, tight raw material supply supports price increases, but slow downstream consumption may limit it [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From March 16 - 20, 2026, the spot prices in Liuzhou and Nanning changed little, and the basis decreased by 22. The import profit from Thailand and Brazil decreased by 101, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The international sugar market's fundamentals are slightly stronger, and the domestic market is affected by import policy discussions, with hedging pressure on the upper side of the futures price [4]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From March 16 - 20, 2026, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 40, and the import profit of cotton decreased. The inventory (warehouse receipts + forecast) decreased by 32, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 32 [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The initial inventory of cotton is low, and demand is expected to improve. New - season planting area in Xinjiang will decline, making it suitable for long - term long positions [6]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From March 16 - 20, 2026, the prices in Hebei and Liaoning remained unchanged, and the prices in Shandong and Henan increased by 0.1. The basis increased by 62, the price of white - feather broilers remained unchanged, the price of yellow - feather broilers decreased by 0.05, and the price of live pigs decreased by 0.13 [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The process of egg production capacity reduction has slowed down, and the focus is on farmers' sentiment towards culling hens. Adopt a reverse spread strategy [9]. Apples - **Price Data**: From March 16 - 20, 2026, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained unchanged. The national inventory increased by 25, Shandong inventory decreased by 110, and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 3 [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The apple market maintains stable trading, with different situations in eastern and western regions, and the sales atmosphere in the consumer market is not strong [12]. Live Pigs - **Price Data**: From March 16 - 20, 2026, the prices in Henan Kaifeng and Hubei Xiangyang decreased, and the basis increased by 65 [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of live pigs is still relatively loose, and the market is in the process of bottom - searching. Pay attention to the impact of production capacity reduction on market sentiment and the expected difference [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the CBOT May soybean contract dropped 63.25 to close at 1160.5 cents per bushel, a decline of 5.17%; the May soybean meal contract fell 99 to close at 3029 yuan per ton, a decline of 3.16%; the spot price of soybean meal in South China rose 20 to 3128 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.59%; the May rapeseed meal contract dropped 168 to close at 2423 yuan per ton, a decline of 6.48%; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Guangxi fell 190 to 2440 yuan per ton, a decline of 7.22% [4][7] - The U.S. soybeans retreated from high levels mainly because the Sino - U.S. economic and trade consultations concluded, and the expectation of increased U.S. soybean purchases in the new year was basically dashed. The U.S. soybean futures price limit - down on Monday. The ongoing Middle - East situation and the strong - oscillating oil prices provided support to the U.S. soybean and other agricultural product markets. The Dalian soybean meal adjusted downward, encountering a key resistance level on the weekly line technically. The overall arrival of domestic soybeans was relatively low, oil mills gradually shut down for maintenance, supply tightened, downstream procurement transactions picked up, and the spot price was relatively strong. However, the arrival of soybeans will increase in April, and the short - term upward space is expected to be limited [4][7] - The Middle - East conflict continues, Trump postponed his visit to China, and the new purchases of U.S. soybeans this year are in doubt. The outer market retreated from high levels. Pay attention to the planting intention report at the end of the month. The arrival of domestic soybeans in March is generally low, oil mills are gradually shutting down for maintenance, the crushing operation rate is expected to decline to some extent, and the spot basis is relatively strong. But the arrival of soybeans will increase in April, which will relieve the short - term supply pressure. Pay attention to the talks between the Brazilian delegation and China on quarantine issues. It is expected that the Dalian soybean meal will oscillate, decline, and adjust in the short term [4][11] 3. Summary According to the Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean price on March 20 was 1160.50 cents per bushel, a decrease of 63.25 cents or 5.17% from March 13; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was 482.00 dollars per ton, a decrease of 13.00 dollars or 2.63% from March 13; the CNF import price of U.S. Gulf soybeans was 512.00 dollars per ton, a decrease of 24.00 dollars or 4.48% from March 13; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the disk was 106.74 yuan per ton, a decrease of 17.52 yuan from March 13; the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean meal price was 3029.00 yuan per ton, a decrease of 99.00 yuan or 3.16% from March 13; the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (CZCE) rapeseed meal price was 2423.00 yuan per ton, a decrease of 168.00 yuan or 6.48% from March 13; the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference was 606.00 yuan per ton, an increase of 69.00 yuan from March 13; the spot price of soybean meal in East China was 3330.00 yuan per ton, an increase of 10.00 yuan or 0.30% from March 13; the spot price of soybean meal in South China was 3400.00 yuan per ton, an increase of 20.00 yuan or 0.59% from March 13; the spot - futures price difference in South China was 371.00 yuan per ton, an increase of 119.00 yuan from March 13 [5] Market Analysis and Outlook - The U.S. soybeans retreated from high levels due to the conclusion of Sino - U.S. economic and trade consultations and the dashing of the expectation of increased purchases. The Middle - East situation and oil prices provided support. The Dalian soybean meal adjusted downward, encountering technical resistance, with tight supply in March and expected supply relief in April [4][7][11] - As of the week ending March 12, 2026, the net increase in U.S. soybean export sales in the 2025/2026 season was 29.8 tons, compared with 45.7 tons in the previous week; the cumulative sales volume of U.S. soybeans this season was 3679 tons, with a sales progress of 85.8%, compared with 89.0% in the same period last year; China's net purchase of U.S. soybeans that week was 8.0 tons, with a cumulative purchase volume of 1098 tons and an unshipped volume of 312.7 tons [8] - As of the week ending March 13, 2026, the gross profit of U.S. soybean crushing was 3.27 dollars per bushel, compared with 2.94 dollars per bushel in the previous week. The spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at Illinois soybean processing plants was 325.63 dollars per short ton, compared with 313.88 dollars per short ton in the previous week. The truck - quoted price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 66.64 cents per pound, compared with 64.61 cents per pound in the previous week. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 12.16 dollars per bushel, compared with 11.98 dollars per bushel in the previous week [8][9] - The NOPA monthly crushing report showed that the U.S. soybean oil inventory in February was 2.08 billion pounds (expected 1.93 billion pounds, 1.9 billion pounds in January, and 1.503 billion pounds in the same period last year); the U.S. soybean crushing volume in February was 208.785 million bushels (expected 202.73 million bushels, 221.564 million bushels in January, and 177.87 million bushels in the same period last year) [9] - Conab reported that as of March 14, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 59.2% (50.6% last week, 69.8% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 58.4%). The harvest progress in Mato Grosso was 96.4% (89.2% last week, 96.6% in the same period last year). The harvest progress in Paraná was 60% (46% last week, 72% in the same period last year). The harvest progress in South Mato Grosso was 68% (61% last week, 80% in the same period last year). Brazil's soybean exports in March are expected to reach 16.32 million tons, down from the previous estimate of 16.47 million tons [9] - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that as of the week ending March 18, 2026, the proportion of normal and excellent crops was 78% (76% in the previous week, 76% in the same period last year). Due to recent good rainfall, the crop conditions in Argentina improved, and the exchange estimated the soybean output in the 2025/2026 season to remain at 48.5 million tons [10] - As of the week ending March 13, 2026, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 5.4861 million tons, a decrease of 240,600 tons from last week and an increase of 2.3181 million tons from the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 627,300 tons, a decrease of 133,200 tons from last week and a decrease of 55,700 tons from the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 3.8895 million tons, a decrease of 416,900 tons from last week and an increase of 1.5347 million tons from the same period last year. The soybean inventory at national ports was 5.489 million tons, a decrease of 305,000 tons from last week and an increase of 2.1877 million tons from the same period last year [10] - As of the week ending March 20, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal nationwide was 190,000 tons, including 147,800 tons of spot trading and 42,300 tons of forward trading. The average daily total trading volume in the week before the holiday was 168,700 tons; the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal was 168,900 tons, compared with 177,100 tons in the week before the holiday; the crushing volume of major oil mills was 1.9905 million tons, compared with 1.9694 million tons in the week before the holiday; the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises was 8.82 days, compared with 8.64 days in the previous week [11] Industry News - Brazilian consulting firm PAN reported that as of March 13, the harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/2026 season was 57.43%, lower than 66.03% in the same period last year and slightly lower than the five - year average of 57.88%. The overall yield per unit area still increased [12] - AgRural reported that as of March 12, the harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/2026 season was 61% (51% last week, 70% in the same period last year). The focus has shifted to the impact of excessive and insufficient rainfall in late - sown areas [12] - The Agricultural Economics Research Institute of Mato Grosso reported that as of March 13, the harvest progress of soybeans in the state in the 2025/2026 season reached 96.4% of the planted area, higher than 89.15% a week ago and higher than the historical average of 90.64% in the same period, but lower than 97.33% in the same period last year. The predicted soybean output in the state in the 2025/2026 season is 50.5 million tons, a 0.74% decrease from the record - high output last year [12] - The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture detailed that one in every ten batches of goods will be strictly inspected. For one in every ten batches, officials will take samples of up to 5 kg for pest and disease inspections. Some soybean cargoes failed the Brazilian health inspection last week, which may lead to delays in exports to China [13] - SECEX reported that Brazil's soybean export pace in March 2026 continued to be lower than the same period last year. From March 1 to 13, Brazil's soybean exports were 6.507 million tons, compared with 14.658 million tons in the whole month of March 2025 [13] - S&P Global Energy reported that it expects U.S. farmers to plant 95.2 million acres of corn and 85 million acres of soybeans in 2026 [13] - The Brazilian Minister of Agriculture said that if the Middle - East conflict is not resolved soon, Brazil may face difficulties in fertilizer supply. Analysts believe that farmers may turn to cheaper alternative supplies [13] - The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (Abiove) expects Brazil's soybean crushing volume in 2026 to reach a record 61.5 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 61 million tons. It expects Brazil's soybean output in the 2025/2026 season to reach 177.85 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 177.12 million tons, and exports in 2026 to be 111.5 million tons, the same as the previous estimate [14] - The International Grains Council (IGC) monthly report showed that the global soybean output in the 2026/2027 season is expected to increase by 16 million tons year - on - year to 442 million tons, the trade volume to increase by 3 million tons to 190 million tons, the consumption to increase by 12 million tons to 442 million tons, and the ending stocks to increase by 1 million tons to 79 million tons [14] Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts such as the price trends of U.S. soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, and soybean meal, the exchange rate trend, the crushing profit by region, and the inventory data of soybeans, soybean meal, etc. [15][16][17][18][20][22][24][27][28][29][30][32][33][35][37][42][43]

Summary of Key Points from Commodity Market Outlook and Q&A Industry Overview - The report discusses the global commodity market outlook, focusing on structural changes and price dynamics as of 2025 and projections for 2026 [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Structural Changes in Commodity Market**: - Three main structural changes are identified: 1. Geopolitical risks significantly altering supply dynamics, particularly in the Middle East, affecting oil markets [2]. 2. Strategic stockpiling demand driven by security considerations, especially in emerging markets for energy and metals [2]. 3. Uncertain growth in emerging demand, with overall commodity demand growth slowing [2]. - **Price Dynamics**: - Oil price baseline adjusted to $75-80 per barrel due to geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions, with a potential for significant inventory impacts if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked [5][6]. - Copper prices supported by global electrification, with a safe incentive price range around $12,000 per ton [5][6]. - Aluminum prices expected to decline to $3,000 per ton by Q4 2026 due to overseas capacity increases [5][6]. - **Market Rotation Characteristics**: - Long-term rotation characteristics are not evident, while mid-term shows clear patterns with industrial metals leading economic cycles by about three months [3]. - Short-term rotation is influenced by capital flows, with potential linkages between energy and agricultural products during significant fund inflows or outflows [3]. Additional Important Content - **Black Metals and Agricultural Products**: - Black metals, particularly iron ore, face downward pressure from new project outputs and real estate investment pressures [7]. - Agricultural markets are influenced by oil price transmission and climate shifts, with specific forecasts for soybeans, corn, and pork prices [7]. - **Gold Market Dynamics**: - The primary driver for rising gold prices is investment demand, particularly from ETF holdings, despite a slowdown in central bank purchases [8]. - Current conditions do not indicate a peak for gold prices, as necessary conditions for a top have not yet formed [8]. This summary encapsulates the key points regarding the commodity market's current state and future outlook, highlighting significant trends, price expectations, and underlying factors influencing various sectors.

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of March 20, 2026, shows the CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE at 21.7x and PB at 1.8x, positioned at the historical 81st and 43rd percentiles respectively [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 PE is at 11.4x and PB at 1.3x, at the historical 57th and 34th percentiles [2] - The CSI 300 PE is at 14.0x and PB at 1.5x, at the historical 62nd and 36th percentiles [2] - The CSI 500 PE is at 35.1x and PB at 2.4x, at the historical 67th and 56th percentiles [2] - The ChiNext Index PE is at 41.2x and PB at 5.6x, at the historical 36th and 64th percentiles [2] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Automation Equipment, Retail, IT Services, and Communication [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communication [2] - Industries with both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile include Securities, Food and Beverage, Medical Services, and White Goods [2] Industry Sentiment Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, the price of polysilicon futures dropped by 11.8%, and the spot price fell by 3.2%, indicating cautious demand from downstream [2] - Battery material prices, including lithium, have seen significant declines, with lithium carbonate down by 3.9% [2] Technology TMT - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 0.3%, while the Taiwan Semiconductor Index fell by 0.4% [2] - The DRAM price index increased by 4.1%, indicating a positive trend in semiconductor pricing [2] Real Estate Chain - The national average price of rebar fell by 0.4%, while cement prices increased by 1.3% as construction activity picks up [3] - Real estate sales area decreased by 13.5% year-on-year in January-February 2026, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs fell by 1.8%, prompting government intervention to stabilize prices [3] - Retail sales grew by 2.8% year-on-year in January-February 2026, showing signs of recovery in consumer confidence [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment grew by 3.1% year-on-year in January-February 2026, supported by improved cash flow and external demand [3] - Industrial electricity consumption increased by 6.1%, reflecting a recovery in manufacturing and export activities [3] Cyclical Industries - Concerns over global economic stagnation have led to significant declines in metal prices, with COMEX gold down by 10.6% [3] - Brent crude oil prices rose by 0.5% to $104.41 per barrel, driven by geopolitical tensions affecting supply [3]

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of March 20, 2026, shows the CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE at 21.7x and PB at 1.8x, positioned at the historical 81st and 43rd percentiles respectively [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 PE is at 11.4x and PB at 1.3x, at the historical 57th and 34th percentiles [2] - The CSI 300 PE is at 14.0x and PB at 1.5x, at the historical 62nd and 36th percentiles [2] - The CSI 500 PE is at 35.1x and PB at 2.4x, at the historical 67th and 56th percentiles [2] - The ChiNext Index PE is at 41.2x and PB at 5.6x, at the historical 36th and 64th percentiles [2] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Automation Equipment, Retail, IT Services, and Communication [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communication [2] - Industries with both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile include Securities, Food and Beverage, Medical Services, and White Goods [2] Industry Midstream Sentiment Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, polysilicon futures prices fell by 11.8%, and spot prices dropped by 3.2%, indicating cautious demand from downstream [3] - Battery material prices, including lithium, have seen significant declines, with lithium carbonate down 3.9% [3] Technology TMT - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 0.3%, while the Taiwan Semiconductor Index fell by 0.4% [3] - The DRAM price index increased by 4.1%, indicating a positive trend in semiconductor pricing [3] Real Estate Chain - The national average price of rebar fell by 0.4%, while cement prices increased by 1.3% as construction activity picks up [3] - Real estate sales area decreased by 13.5% year-on-year in January-February 2026, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs fell by 1.8%, prompting government intervention to stabilize prices [3] - Retail sales grew by 2.8% year-on-year in January-February 2026, showing signs of recovery in consumer confidence [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment grew by 3.1% year-on-year in January-February 2026, reflecting improved cash flow and external demand [3] - Industrial electricity consumption increased by 6.1% year-on-year, driven by higher manufacturing output [3] Cyclical Industries - Concerns over global economic stagnation have led to significant declines in metal prices, with COMEX gold down 10.6% and copper down 7.1% [3] - Brent crude oil prices rose by 0.5% to $104.41 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical tensions affecting supply [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading activity in the commodity options market decreased this week, with the average daily trading volume at 8.28 million lots and the average daily open interest at 9.05 million lots, showing a -22.31% and +5.14% change respectively compared to the previous period. The geopolitical impact in the Middle East led to a continued strong upward trend in commodity option underlying assets, especially in the energy and chemical sectors. Many varieties' implied volatility is at a high level in the past year, and investors are advised to pay attention to short - volatility opportunities [1][8][17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Commodity Option Market Activity - The trading activity in the commodity options market decreased from March 16 to March 20, 2026. The average daily trading volume was 8.28 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 9.05 million lots, with a -22.31% and +5.14% change respectively compared to the previous period. The actively traded varieties included styrene (770,000 lots), methanol (650,000 lots), and silver (520,000 lots). Three varieties' trading volume doubled, namely asphalt (+368%), lead (+191%), and silver (+112%). The varieties with a significant decline in trading volume were staple fiber (-84%), propylene (-84%), and caustic soda (-75%). The varieties with high average daily open interest were soybean meal (750,000 lots), cotton (550,000 lots), and corn (520,000 lots). The varieties with a rapid increase in average daily open interest were asphalt (+154%) and p - xylene (+102%) [1][8]. 3.2 This Week's Key Data Review of Commodity Options - **Underlying Asset Price Movements**: Affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, commodity option underlying assets, especially in the energy and chemical sectors, continued to rise. The varieties with high weekly increases included LPG (+19.08%), ethylene glycol (+13.20%), and methanol (+11.66%); the varieties with high weekly decreases included silver (-15.76%), polysilicon (-10.17%), and tin (-8.45%) [2][17]. - **Market Volatility**: The geopolitical impact in the Middle East kept the market sentiment high. The implied volatility of 47 varieties was above the 80th percentile of the past year. The varieties with a significant increase in implied volatility included ethylene glycol (+14.27pct), gold (+11.49pct), and tin (+10.01pct); the varieties with a significant decrease in implied volatility included pure benzene (-85.51pct), styrene (-54.17pct), and p - xylene (-36.17pct) [2][17]. - **Option Market Sentiment**: Currently, the trading volume PCR of silver, copper, lithium carbonate, and industrial silicon is at a historical high, indicating a short - term concentrated bet on a downward trend; the trading volume PCR of oilseeds, LPG, soda ash, and urea is at a one - year low, indicating a concentrated bet on an upward trend. The open interest PCR of PVC, asphalt, plastic, and soybean meal is at a historical high, indicating a high level of bearish sentiment; the open interest PCR of live pigs, silver, polysilicon, and rapeseed meal is at a one - year low, indicating a bullish sentiment [3][18]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Major Varieties - This chapter presents key data of major varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and option market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be found on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [23]. - **Energy**: Relevant charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of crude oil [24][25][26]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA**: Charts display the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of PTA [30][31][33]. - **Caustic Soda**: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of caustic soda [40][41][42]. - **Glass**: Charts present the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of glass [49][50][52]. - **Soda Ash**: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of soda ash [58][59][60]. - **Precious Metals**: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of silver [66][71][68]. - **Ferrous Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: Charts display the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of iron ore [75][76][77]. - **Silicomanganese**: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of silicomanganese [84][85][86]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: Charts present the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of copper [92][93][95]. - **Aluminum**: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of aluminum [101][102][103]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Soybean Meal**: Charts display the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of soybean meal [109][110][114]. - **Palm Oil**: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of palm oil [118][119][121]. - **Cotton**: Charts present the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of cotton [126][128][130].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Agricultural Product Warehouse Receipts Overview - The report presents daily warehouse receipt collections of various agricultural products including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, corn, sugar, cotton, and live pigs [1] 3.2 Warehouse Receipt Quantity and Changes of Specific Products - **Soybean Meal**: The current warehouse receipt quantity is 36,728.0 hands, showing a -1% change compared to the previous period, a 1.5% change over a certain period, and a 98% change compared to a base period [7] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The warehouse receipt quantity is 286.0 pieces, with a -88% change from the previous period, an infinite change over a certain period, and a 1330% change compared to a base period [7] - **Soybean Oil**: The warehouse receipt quantity is 25,342.0 hands, having a -1% change from the previous period, a -3.7% change over a certain period, and a 197% change compared to a base period [7] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The warehouse receipt quantity is 805.0 pieces, showing a -28% change from the previous period, a 28.8% change over a certain period, and a -58% change compared to a base period [7] - **Palm Oil**: The warehouse receipt quantity is 821.0 hands, with a 0% change from the previous period, an 82.4% change over a certain period, and a 1% change compared to a base period [7] - **Sugar**: The warehouse receipt quantity is 16,342.0 pieces, having a 0% change from the previous period, a 13.0% change over a certain period, and a -43% change compared to a base period [7] - **Live Pigs**: The warehouse receipt quantity is 1,051.0 hands, showing a -7% change from the previous period, a 2.3% change over a certain period, and a 41% change compared to a base period [7] - **Cotton (No.1)**: The warehouse receipt quantity is 12,437.0 pieces, with a 1% change from the previous period, a 13.1% change over a certain period, and a 37% change compared to a base period [7] - **Corn**: The warehouse receipt quantity is 78,333.0 hands, having a 3% change from the previous period, a -11.6% change over a certain period, and a 16% change compared to a base period [7] 3.3 Aggregate Warehouse Receipt Quantity and Changes - The total warehouse receipt quantity is 172,145.0 hands, showing a 0% change from the previous period, a -3.6% change over a certain period, and a 27% change compared to a base period [7]

行业 农产品 2026 年 3 月 20 日 日期 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635726 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 周度报告 豆粕 一、周度回顾与操作建议 | | | 现货方面，截至 3 月 20 日，沿海豆粕价格 3320 至 3500 元/吨一线，价格较 一周前小幅回调，其中大连报 3420 元/吨（-130）；日照 3320 元/吨（-60 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply of soybeans in April has shifted from loose to slightly tight, and soybean meal has fallen from its high but still has some support below. Attention should be paid to subsequent soybean reserve release announcements [2] - It is estimated that edible oils will fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to changes in the Middle - East situation around the end of the month [3] Summary by Related Content Soybean Meal - Abiove expects Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season to reach 177.85 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 177.12 million tons; exports in 2026 to be 111.5 million tons, the same as the previous estimate; the crushing volume in 2026 to reach a record 61.5 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 61 million tons; soybean meal production in 2026 to be 47.4 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 47 million tons; and soybean oil production to be 12.35 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 12.25 million tons [1] - As of March 11, 2026, Argentine farmers pre - sold 7.52 million tons of 2025/26 season soybeans, compared with 7.45 million tons in the same period last year. They also sold 44.27 million tons of 2024/25 season soybeans, compared with 39.22 million tons in the same period last year. Last week, they sold 170,000 tons [1] - Brazil temporarily cancelled a quarantine measure, allowing soybean shipments to resume normal. However, due to previous shipping delays, some April soybean shipments to China were postponed to May, and the April soybean supply has become slightly tight. Trump postponed his visit to China, and US soybean demand has weakened, causing soybean meal to fall from its high [2] Edible Oils - Abiove believes that the Brazilian government should allow a higher proportion of biodiesel to be mixed in regular diesel to deal with the energy price crisis caused by the US - Israel - Iran war. Brazilian biodiesel producers are ready to support a 20% mixing ratio (B20) [2] - According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 20, 2026 were 1,166,586 tons, a 49.6% increase compared to the same period last month [2] - With the sharp rise in crude oil prices, major bio - fuel producing countries are taking action. Policies such as Indonesia's B50, the US's new bio - fuel policy, and Brazil's B20 are in the works. Policy - related benefits may gradually materialize as crude oil prices remain high [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, CBOT soybeans tumbled significantly, almost giving back all the premiums brought by the rise in international crude oil since March. The domestic soybean meal market was slightly stronger than the external market. The continuous soybean meal market oscillated strongly under the resonance of multiple factors, and the futures price was supported by cost - driven at the bottom and dragged down by poor downstream demand at the top. The main contract of continuous soybean meal may oscillate repeatedly around 3,050 yuan/ton. It is advisable to operate in short - term bands [6]. - In the future, in the international market, the Middle East situation is intensifying, and the enthusiasm of funds to go long on commodities remains due to the increase in shipping costs and logistics delays. If Brazilian soybeans can be exported smoothly, it will have a greater impact on US soybean exports. The upcoming US biodiesel policy may boost US soybean oil and then US soybeans. In the domestic market, attention should be paid to the shipping situation of Brazilian soybeans. The soybean meal supply may decrease and the inventory may decline, which will support the spot price. The main contract of the continuous soybean meal market will test the support level of 3,000 yuan/ton. If it falls below, the downward space will open; otherwise, the market will remain in a high - level and strong oscillation. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips [81]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Protein Meal Market Analysis 3.1.1 Market Trends - This week, CBOT soybeans tumbled significantly. On Monday, the main contract of CBOT soybeans closed at the daily limit down due to the delay of the Sino - US leaders' meeting. Later, it rebounded at a low level due to the rise of international crude oil and the possible obstruction of Brazilian soybean exports. The domestic soybean meal market was slightly stronger than the external market. The continuous soybean meal market oscillated strongly under the influence of multiple factors, with the futures price supported by cost at the bottom and dragged down by poor downstream demand at the top [6]. 3.1.2 US Soybean Export Situation - As of the week of March 12, 2026, the US soybean export inspection volume was 966,082 tons, and the total export inspection volume for the 2025/26 season reached 28,061,287 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.3%. The US soybean exports for the 2025/26 season have reached 65.5% of the annual export target. In that week, the US shipped 545,858 tons of soybeans to China, accounting for 46.8% of the total weekly export inspection volume [11]. 3.1.3 South American Market (Brazil and Argentina) - **Brazil**: In the central and northern Amazonas state, there were widespread showers, which were generally beneficial to the growth of corn and cotton. In some areas, the rainfall was limited. The soybean harvest has started, with a progress of 7%, and 65% of the corn has been harvested [20]. - **Argentina**: The western part of the country had continuous rainy weather, while the eastern part was dry. The moisture deficit in soybean fields was mainly concentrated in some areas. The sunflower harvest rate was 42%, and the corn harvest rate was 9% [21]. 3.1.4 Domestic and International Oilseed Market - **Brazil - China Negotiation**: Brazil's agriculture minister will negotiate with China on the inspection and safety requirements for Brazilian soybean exports to China after receiving complaints from Chinese buyers [33]. - **Brazilian Truck Drivers' Strike**: Brazilian truck drivers are planning a new national strike due to the sharp rise in diesel prices, which may start as early as mid - March [33]. - **US Planting Area Forecast**: In 2026, the US soybean planting area is expected to be 85.66 million acres, higher than 81.2 million acres in 2025; the corn planting area is expected to be 93.68 million acres, lower than 98.8 million acres in 2025 [34]. - **Brazilian Soybean Export Forecast**: In March 2026, the estimated Brazilian soybean export volume is 16.32 million tons, still a 3.8% increase compared to March 2025. From January to February, China accounted for 71% of Brazil's total soybean exports [34]. - **Global Soybean Production and Trade Forecast**: The 2025/26 global soybean production will reach a record high. The IGC initially predicts that the 2026/27 global soybean production will reach a record 442 million tons, and the trade volume will increase to 190 million tons [36]. - **Brazilian Soybean Production and Processing Forecast**: ABIOVE predicts that Brazil's 2026 soybean production will reach 177.85 million tons, and the soybean processing volume will be 61.5 million tons, both hitting new records [37]. - **Argentine Soybean Sales**: As of March 11, 2026, Argentine farmers pre - sold 7.52 million tons of 2025/26 season soybeans, and sold 44.27 million tons of 2024/25 season soybeans [37]. 3.1.5 Soybean Sowing and Harvest Progress - **Argentina**: As of a certain period, the overall soybean sowing progress was 99.5%, with a 0.5% increase compared to the previous week [39]. - **Brazil**: As of a certain period, the overall soybean harvest progress was 59.2%, with an 8.6% increase compared to the previous week [41]. 3.1.6 Soybean Port Inventory and Processing Profit - The domestic port's imported soybean inventory was about 8.3056 million tons at the end of this week, with a theoretical crushable days of 27 days. It is expected that the port soybean inventory will be 5.04 million tons next weekend, and the soybean arrival will be about 4.7765 million tons. The Brazilian soybean crush profit on the futures market continued to recover this week [48]. 3.1.7 Soybean Import Cost and Domestic - Foreign Price Difference - The cost of US Gulf soybeans arriving in May (with additional tariffs) is 4,569 yuan/ton, and (with normal tariffs) is 4,173 yuan/ton. The cost of Brazilian soybeans arriving in May is 3,886 yuan/ton. The Brazilian soybean premium continued to recover this week [51]. 3.1.8 Soybean Meal - Soybean Processing Rate and Soybean Meal Inventory - As of the 11th week (March 14), the domestic soybean processing rate increased to 57.70%, and the total soybean processing volume was 2.135 million tons. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 623,500 tons, a decrease of 143,500 tons compared to the previous week, and the contract volume was 4.8823 million tons, a decrease of 351,500 tons compared to the previous week [55]. 3.1.9 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Weekly Apparent Consumption - The estimated apparent consumption of soybean meal in the 11th week was 1.8228 million tons, higher than 1.514 million tons in the previous week [57]. 3.1.10 Soybean Meal - Basis Analysis - This week, the domestic soybean meal spot price increased, and the soybean meal basis continued to recover [60]. 3.1.11 Rapeseed Meal - Rapeseed Processing Rate and Processing Volume - As of the 11th week (March 14), the domestic rapeseed processing rate increased to 7.40%, and the total rapeseed processing volume was 30,500 tons. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory was 20,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons compared to the previous week, and the contract volume was 76,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons compared to the previous week [62]. 3.1.12 Rapeseed Meal - Basis Analysis - No specific new content provided other than the basis analysis chart. 3.1.13 Arbitrage Relationship between Oil and Oilseed Varieties - This week, the oil - meal ratio of soybeans rebounded slightly, the oil - meal ratio of rapeseed main contracts oscillated and rebounded, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal main contracts continued to widen [68]. 3.1.14 Protein Meal Inter - Month Spread Arbitrage Relationship - This week, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal rose first and then fell, and the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal fell from a high level [72]. 3.2 Market Outlook 3.2.1 Seasonal Analysis - Seasonal analysis charts of US soybeans, US soybean meal, continuous soybean meal, and live pigs are provided, but no specific analysis content is given [75][76][78]. 3.2.2 Next - Week Market Outlook - **Technical Aspect**: For the main contracts, the short - term indicators of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are entangled, the medium - term indicators are bullish, and the long - term indicators are entangled [80]. - **Fundamental Aspect**: In the international market, the Middle East situation is intensifying, and the US biodiesel policy may boost US soybean oil and then US soybeans. In the domestic market, attention should be paid to the shipping of Brazilian soybeans. The soybean meal supply may decrease, and the inventory may decline, supporting the spot price. The main contract of the continuous soybean meal market will test the support level of 3,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips [81].