丨证券研究报告丨 固收资产配置丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 从波动率把握转债的机会区间 ——可转债周报 20250628 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当周（2025 年 6 月 23 日–2025 年 6 月 28 日），可转债市场回暖，指数整体走强，市场风格 转向高弹性博弈。估值端，低平价区间个券有所分化，中高平价区间个券估值普遍拉升，市场 风险偏好温和回升，隐含波动率小幅抬升，交易情绪有所改善。当前万得全 A 风险溢价处于高 分位，权益市场相对债市或具备一定性价比。我们认为，转债市场波动率相关指标均有所回升， 反映市场情绪温和回暖。整体来看，当前转债市场风格自防御向进攻切换，建议兼顾弹性与安 全边际，关注具备事件驱动与业绩兑现预期的结构性机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 熊锋 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120004 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 从波动率把握转债的机会区间 2] ——可转债周报 202506 ...

沪指7月2日下跌0.09%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有15个，涨幅居前的行业为钢铁、煤炭，涨幅分 别为3.37%、1.99%。跌幅居前的行业为电子、通信，跌幅分别为2.01%、1.96%。国防军工行业位居今 日跌幅榜第三。 | 300177 | | --- | | 中海达 | | -0.36 12.78 | | 35.61 | 国防军工行业资金流出榜 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300065 | 海兰信 | 5.61 | 33.74 | -36439.50 | | 300527 | 中船应急 | 13.14 | 23.29 | -28730.72 | | 600967 | 内蒙一机 | -9.99 | 9.06 | -28326.29 | | 002651 | 利君股份 | -5.75 | 26.53 | -23066.53 | | 300008 | 天海防务 | 1.63 | 26.66 | -21051.99 | | 002465 | 海格通信 | -1.85 | 4.4 ...

| | | 3400 点有效突破可能性较大:我们在年度策略判断本轮行情是结构性慢牛,目前来看市场走势正在强化,中期货将我们提 出目前时点,A 股正站在新一轮结构性侵牛的起点,3400突破以后是新征程的起点,市场有望展开新一轮慢牛。 核心逻辑: 1) 全球化与逆全球化的矛盾。逆转不了中国全球化的布局、未来重塑的是全球贸易利益新格局，在经历贸易战之后,中国 海外布局必将加快进程。2)中国制造业作为全球产业链的核心,凭借其规模、供应链完整性、创新能力和成本效率,长期 占据竞争优势地位。2011年起,中国制造业增加值超越美国成为全球最大的制造业大国,凸显其不可替代性。3）中国军事 实力提升,是中国全球化进程的战略保障,有利于一带一路布局和企业整体性出海的战略自信,随着中国军事力量逐步具备 全球投射能力、全球对中国资产信心度提升将会起到促进作用。4）中国股市资产质量逐步优化,IPO 发行从注重融资数量 的增量思维向提高存量思维转变，2024年开始 IPO 融资规模大幅降低,同时，并购重组日益受到管理层重视，连续出台鼓 关证券股份有限公司证券 报 H A 股策略周报:开启新征程 2025年7月2日 策略周报 东兴证券策略 ...

国信证券(香港)·资讯日报 股票市场概览 港股市场表现 美股市场表现 | 年 日 2025 7 | 月 | 2 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资讯日报 | | | | | | | 海外市场主要股市上日表现 | | | | | | | | | | | 升跌（%） | | | 指数名称 | | | 收市价 | 单日 | 年内 | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 恒生指数 | 24,072 | (0.87) | 20.00 | | 恒生国企 | 8,678 | (0.96) | 19.05 | | 恒生科技 | 5,303 | (0.72) | 18.68 | | 美国道琼斯 | 44,495 | 0.91 | 4.59 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,198 | (0.11) | 5.38 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 20,203 | (0.82) | 4.62 | | 德国 DAX | 23,673 | (0.99) | 18.91 | | 法国 CAC | 7,663 | (0.04) | ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance on July 2, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.09% to 3454.79 points, the ChiNext Index down 1.13% to 2123.72 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.61% to 10412.63 points [1] - A total of 1943 stocks rose while 3282 stocks fell, with a total trading volume of 13769 billion yuan, a decrease of 892 billion yuan from the previous trading day [2] Sector Performance - Marine economy stocks surged, particularly in aquaculture and deep-sea technology, with several stocks hitting the daily limit [4] - The steel sector saw a rebound in the afternoon, with stocks like Shengde Xintai and Chongqing Steel reaching their daily limit [4] - The banking sector remained active, with major banks like China Construction Bank and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank reaching historical highs [4] - Semiconductor stocks experienced significant declines, with several companies dropping over 6% [4][5] Future Market Expectations - Zhongyuan Securities predicts a steady upward trend for the A-share market in the short term, supported by increased long-term capital inflow and stable ETF growth [6] - Yingda Securities suggests a relatively positive mid-term market outlook, with expectations of continued upward movement due to financial support policies and potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [6] - Dongguan Securities notes that the upcoming half-year report disclosures and policy expectations will enhance market drivers [6] - Overall, the market is expected to experience fluctuations, with potential opportunities in sectors like new consumption, media, and non-bank financials [7][8]

Group 1 - The domestic equity market showed an increase in risk appetite in June, with technology growth and large financial sectors performing well under external shocks [1] - The market is expected to maintain a high-level oscillation in July, with mid-year report forecasts becoming an important short-term sentiment indicator [1][2] - The upcoming July 9 deadline for the 90-day tariff suspension may impact the A-share market, with mixed negotiations ongoing between the US and other countries [1][2] Group 2 - The July Politburo meeting is anticipated to address short-term economic pressures, with expectations for fiscal policy to support the real estate market [2] - The July mid-year report preview season is approaching, with recent market sentiment being pessimistic despite structural improvements in corporate fundamentals [2] - The Federal Reserve's July meeting is expected to maintain a cautious stance on economic outlook and inflation, with a focus on the impact of tariffs on inflation in July and August [2][3] Group 3 - The consumption sector is expected to benefit from policies aimed at boosting demand, with strong expectations for structural opportunities in the consumer industry [3] - Dividend assets are likely to perform well due to low interest rates and stable fundamentals, attracting long-term capital [3] - Gold and defense-related assets remain attractive due to geopolitical uncertainties, with a focus on their defensive value [3] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is poised for a catalytic period, benefiting from favorable policies and stronger support for high-quality development [3]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - As of July 1, the latest market financing balance reached 1,841.902 billion yuan, showing an increase of 3.753 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with 20 out of 31 industries experiencing an increase in financing balance [1]. Industry Financing Balance Changes - The electronic industry saw the largest increase in financing balance, rising by 1.450 billion yuan to a total of 213.092 billion yuan [1]. - Other industries with notable increases include: - Defense and military industry: increased by 0.507 billion yuan to 66.669 billion yuan - Non-ferrous metals: increased by 0.486 billion yuan to 78.648 billion yuan - Machinery equipment: increased by 0.422 billion yuan to 94.931 billion yuan [1]. - Conversely, 11 industries reported a decrease in financing balance, with the computer industry experiencing the largest drop of 0.623 billion yuan to 1,410.87 billion yuan [2]. Percentage Changes in Financing Balance - The comprehensive industry recorded the highest percentage increase in financing balance at 1.30%, totaling 3.319 billion yuan [1]. - Other industries with significant percentage increases include: - Retail: 1.06% increase - Real estate: 0.93% increase - Beauty care: 0.91% increase [1]. - Industries with the largest percentage decreases include: - Petroleum and petrochemicals: decreased by 0.75% - Coal: decreased by 0.50% - Textile and apparel: decreased by 0.46% [1][2].

Core Insights - The latest financing balance for the ChiNext market is 359.29 billion yuan, with a week-on-week increase of 0.82 billion yuan, indicating a positive trend in financing activities [1][2] - A total of 464 stocks in the ChiNext saw an increase in financing balance, with 37 stocks experiencing a growth of over 10% [1][3] - The stocks with the highest financing balance increase include Hengyu Xintong, which saw a 116.63% increase, and others like Tengya Precision and Ruina Intelligent, with increases of 101.08% and 43.49% respectively [1][3] Financing Balance Increase - The total margin balance for ChiNext stocks reached 360.33 billion yuan, marking an increase of 0.83 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The average increase in stock prices for those with a financing balance increase of over 10% was 1.43%, with notable gainers including Yipin Hong and Taotao Automotive, which rose by 14.72% and 14.71% respectively [1][2] Financing Balance Decrease - A total of 469 stocks experienced a decrease in financing balance, with 12 stocks showing a decline of over 10% [4][5] - The stock with the largest decrease in financing balance was Minbao Optoelectronics, which fell by 32.37%, followed by Hopu Co. and Ruijie Network with declines of 25.71% and 18.60% respectively [4][5] Capital Flow - On July 1, 17 stocks with increased financing balance saw net inflows of main funds, with Yipin Hong and Taotao Automotive leading with net inflows of 168 million yuan and 68.16 million yuan respectively [2] - Conversely, 20 stocks experienced net outflows, with the largest outflow seen in Chenxi Aviation, which had a net outflow of 358 million yuan [2]

Market Overview - On July 1, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.39%, with the total margin trading balance reaching 1,854.563 billion yuan, an increase of 4.111 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai market was 935.827 billion yuan, up by 1.786 billion yuan; in the Shenzhen market, it was 912.867 billion yuan, an increase of 2.269 billion yuan; and in the Beijing Stock Exchange, it was 5.869 billion yuan, up by 0.055 billion yuan [1] Industry Analysis - Among the industries tracked by Shenwan, 20 sectors saw an increase in margin trading balances, with the electronics sector leading with an increase of 1.450 billion yuan, followed by the defense and military industry and non-ferrous metals, which increased by 0.507 billion yuan and 0.486 billion yuan, respectively [1] Stock Performance - A total of 1,844 stocks experienced an increase in margin trading balances, accounting for 50.10% of the total, with 328 stocks seeing an increase of over 5% [1] - The stock with the largest increase in margin trading balance was Hengyu Xintong, which had a latest margin balance of 45.283 million yuan, reflecting a 116.63% increase, although its stock price fell by 0.12% on the same day [1] - Other notable stocks with significant increases in margin trading balances included Tengya Precision and Juneng Co., with increases of 101.08% and 73.33%, respectively [1] Top Gainers and Losers - Among the top 20 stocks with the largest increases in margin trading balances, the average stock price rose by 1.88%, with notable gainers including Taotao Automotive, Jixin Technology, and Xiangyu Medical, which saw increases of 14.71%, 9.98%, and 8.11%, respectively [2] - Conversely, the stocks with the largest declines included Hongyu Packaging, Kelon New Materials, and Tengya Precision, with declines of 5.72%, 4.08%, and 3.91%, respectively [2] Margin Trading Balance Declines - In contrast to the stocks with increased margin trading balances, 1,837 stocks saw a decrease, with 225 stocks experiencing a decline of over 5% [4] - The stock with the largest decrease in margin trading balance was Huawi Design, which saw a decline of 35.29%, bringing its latest margin balance to 5.819 million yuan [4] - Other stocks with significant declines included Minexplosion Optoelectronics and Jibeier, with decreases of 32.37% and 27.68%, respectively [4]

来源：e公司 继6月30日晚间发布股票交易严重异常波动公告后，长城军工（601606）7月1日晚间再度提示 风险。 盘面上，7月1日该公司股价午后再度冲至涨停，报收31.96元/股，单日涨幅10.02%。这已是该公 司股价近10个交易日来收获的第8个涨停板。 7月1日晚间公告中长城军工表示，截至当日收盘，公司股票连续10个交易日内（2025年6月18日至 7月1日）4次出现《上海证券交易所交易规则》规定的同向异常波动情形，根据有关规定，属于股票 交易严重异常波动情况。 目前，公司股票波动严重异常，存在市场情绪过热的情形，可能存在非理 性炒作，公司股票击鼓传花效应十分明显，交易风险极大，存在短期大幅下跌的风险。敬请广大投资 者理性投资，注意投资风险。 经测试，长城军工股票近10个交易日累计涨幅达131.76%，同期国防军工（申万）行业指数累计涨 幅为9.25%，同期上证指数累计上涨1.68%；公司股票短期涨幅严重高于同期行业指数及上证指数 涨幅，但公司基本面没有重大变化，也不存在应披露而未披露的重大信息。截至2025年7月1日收 盘，公司股票收盘价处于历史高位；当日成交额46.94亿元，成交量较大。 此外，根据 ...