序号股票简称PE(TTM)PE(静)市净率总市值(元)38中国稀土450.73-116.997.12335.66亿行业平均 70.9050.443.22174.12亿行业中值48.8945.673.17105.67亿1宜安科技-1067.686379.005.9064.14亿2广晟有 色-40.24-40.243.57120.11亿3华阳新材-30.62-10.1111.7618.83亿4翔鹭钨业-17.70-16.602.9421.43亿5洛阳钼 业9.9911.382.091539.35亿6金钼股份10.5810.741.81320.40亿7锡业股份14.2315.931.22230.08亿8贵研铂业 17.2417.241.4199.90亿9厦门钨业17.3516.991.80293.54亿10华锡有色21.5640.233.25126.13亿11中钨高新 22.9523.122.27217.18亿 本文源自：金融界 作者：行情君 资金流向方面，4月28日，中国稀土主力资金净流入8099.95万元，近5日总体呈流出状态，5日共流出 12222.20万元。 中国稀土集团资源科技股份有限公司的主营业务是稀土 ...

[Table_Main] 行业研究|有色金属 证券研究报告 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 有色金属行业双周报 2025 年 04 月 28 日 [Table_Title] 黄金价格续创新高，关注战略小金属投资机会 ——有色金属行业双周报 行情回顾：近 2 周申万有色金属指数上涨 2.43% 近 2 周（2025.4.14-2025.4.25），有色金属行业指数强势上涨 2.43%， 跑赢沪深 300 指数涨幅 1.46 个百分点，在 31 个申万一级行业中排名 第十一。从细分领域看，能源金属（4.34%）、工业金属（3.84%）和 贵金属（1.74%）涨幅居前，小金属和金属新材料涨幅分别为-1.66%、 -1.78%。 金属价格：黄金价格续创新高，稀土价格有所下调 截至 4 月 25 日，COMEX 黄金收盘价为 3330.2 美元/盎司，近 2 周上 涨 2.31%；COMEX 银收盘价为 33.34 美元/盎司，近 2 周上涨 3.56%； LME 铜现货结算价为 9364 美元/吨，近 2 周上涨 2.00%；LME 铝现 货结算价为 2412 美元/吨，近 2 周上涨 5.56%；黑钨精 ...

[Table_Main] 行业研究|有色金属 证券研究报告 有色金属行业双周报 2025 年 04 月 28 日 [Table_Title] 黄金价格续创新高，关注战略小金属投资机会 ——有色金属行业双周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 行情回顾：近 2 周申万有色金属指数上涨 2.43% 近 2 周（2025.4.14-2025.4.25），有色金属行业指数强势上涨 2.43%， 跑赢沪深 300 指数涨幅 1.46 个百分点，在 31 个申万一级行业中排名 第十一。从细分领域看，能源金属（4.34%）、工业金属（3.84%）和 贵金属（1.74%）涨幅居前，小金属和金属新材料涨幅分别为-1.66%、 -1.78%。 金属价格：黄金价格续创新高，稀土价格有所下调 截至 4 月 25 日，COMEX 黄金收盘价为 3330.2 美元/盎司，近 2 周上 涨 2.31%；COMEX 银收盘价为 33.34 美元/盎司，近 2 周上涨 3.56%； LME 铜现货结算价为 9364 美元/吨，近 2 周上涨 2.00%；LME 铝现 货结算价为 2412 美元/吨，近 2 周上涨 5.56%；黑钨精 ...

以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者申万宏源策略 申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 目录 一周回顾 用好用足"，增量政策"备足预案"，资本市场"稳定"基础上还要"活跃"，全面覆盖市场期待。政策关键验证期，A股预期将保持稳定。 易因素。基准假设是，特朗普政策调整缓慢且渐进，美股承压，A股基本面预期和风险偏好恢复有上限。 段性修复；高股息投资重新向港股聚焦。中期展望向"结构牛，全面牛"回归，二季度本就是"结构牛"的调整期，A股消化基本面压力"幅度充分，时间不足"，维持二季度震荡市判断。 历史15%分位以下的行业：保险、小金属、交通运输（航运港口）、电池、 农林牧渔 、医疗服务。 支重要科技股业绩超预期，本周纳斯达克指数反弹明显，全球股市情绪明显转暖。 专题研究 所减仓。2）大众消费品和地产产业链明显低配。3）周期中有色金属大幅加仓。4）腾讯控股首次取代宁德时代成为公募基金重仓规模第一大个股。 0 美元/盎司。短期调整后，未来黄金价格是否还具备上行空间？本篇报告我们将用定量测算的方式来分析黄金在不同情景下的风险和机会。 电 话 会 议 l and and the submit and the more of ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price based on expected earnings growth and market conditions [6]. Core Views - The company's performance has been negatively impacted by falling lithium prices, but its cesium and rubidium business provides a profit cushion [2][4]. - The company is expected to navigate the lithium price clearing cycle through cost reduction strategies and maintain stable cash flow from its monopolistic position in the cesium and rubidium market [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, with a gross margin of 33% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 757 million yuan, down 66% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 14% [1]. - Quarterly revenue for 2024 was 1.13 billion, 1.30 billion, 1.15 billion, and 1.79 billion yuan, with Q4 showing significant growth of 78% year-on-year and 56% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - For Q1 2025, revenue was 1.54 billion yuan, reflecting a 36% increase year-on-year but a 14% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1]. Profit Structure Summary - The company's gross profit for 2024 was 1.76 billion yuan, a decrease of 47% year-on-year, with lithium salt contributing 600 million yuan (33%), cesium and rubidium business contributing 1.1 billion yuan (62%), and trading business contributing 120 million yuan (7%) [2]. - The average selling price of lithium salt was 83,000 yuan per ton, a 70% decrease year-on-year, which was the main reason for the decline in lithium salt performance [2]. - The company managed to reduce its operating cost per ton from 103,000 yuan to 60,000 yuan through various cost-cutting measures [2]. Business Development Summary - The company is pursuing multi-metal business development, including plans to build a 30,000-ton lithium sulfate plant in Zimbabwe and aims to complete the Kitumba copper mine's integrated construction by 2026 [3]. - The cesium business is expected to see continued growth due to the company's monopolistic position, with plans to complete the cesium selection plant in Zimbabwe by 2025 [3]. Earnings Forecast Summary - The report revises the earnings forecast for the company, projecting net profits of 882 million yuan, 1.43 billion yuan, and 2.41 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]. - The projected price assumptions for lithium are 75,000 yuan, 85,000 yuan, and 95,000 yuan per ton for 2025-2027 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's 2024 revenue is projected at 5.364 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.80% year-on-year, with a net profit of 756.98 million yuan, down 65.72% year-on-year. The Q4 2024 revenue is expected to be 1.79 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 78% quarter-on-quarter and 56% year-on-year [7] - The report indicates that the company's lithium salt sales in Q1 2025 were affected by maintenance, resulting in a 25% quarter-on-quarter decrease, but a 13% year-on-year increase. The annual sales forecast for 2025 is expected to reach 45,000 tons [7] - The copper smelting business reported a loss of 100 million yuan in Q1 2025, but the loss is expected to narrow in Q2 2025. The Tsumeb gallium business is anticipated to contribute to profit starting in Q4 2025 [7] - The report highlights a significant increase in cesium and rubidium sales in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 78%, contributing approximately 150 million yuan to net profit [7] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2026, now expecting net profits of 600 million yuan and 1.21 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 20% and an increase of 100% [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 was 6.013 billion yuan, with a projected decline to 5.364 billion yuan in 2024, followed by an increase to 6.611 billion yuan in 2025 [1][8] - The net profit for 2023 was 2.208 billion yuan, expected to drop to 756.98 million yuan in 2024, and further to 603.68 million yuan in 2025 [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to decrease from 3.06 yuan in 2023 to 1.05 yuan in 2024, and then to 0.84 yuan in 2025 [1][8] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 28.92 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 20.87 billion yuan [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 27.49 for 2024, increasing to 34.47 in 2025, and then decreasing to 17.23 in 2026 [1][8] Operational Insights - The company reported a significant increase in operational cash flow in Q4 2024, but a negative cash flow of 800 million yuan in Q1 2025 [7] - The capital expenditure in Q1 2025 was significantly reduced to 40 million yuan, down 86% quarter-on-quarter [7]

2025 年 04 月 27 日 特朗普 2.0 的实质，和政治局会议后的市场应对 策略研究团队 ——投资策略专题 韦冀星（分析师） weijixing@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524030002 中美波动不一致的背后：两国的核心目的不相同 当前中国区域的市场波动性有所下降，然而美国市场的波动性仍然较高，造成这个 区别的核心原因是什么？我们认为在于中美两国的政策背后的核心目的不相同。本 文当中，我们将详细分析特朗普 2.0 的实质，并结合 4.25 政治局会议，展望未来中 国资产的配置思路。 理解特朗普 2.0 的实质：资本侵蚀下，经济产出外流 1、被忽视的美国金融账户风险。大家都认为贸易赤字和制造业回流是特朗普开启关 税的核心目的，但在我们的研究下，更深层次的原因是资本侵蚀、及其驱动的美国 经济产出的对外流失。鉴于市场对关税和特朗普行为的过度聚焦，市场可能低估了 该问题的严重性和美国可能采取的行动，以及美元资产潜在的折价和违约风险。 2、美国版资本侵蚀对美国的影响有多大？2024 年底，美国对外净负债约 26.2 万亿 美元，占名义 GDP 89.8%。以回报率 5%计，相当于美国经济总产出中 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's 2024 revenue is projected at 5.364 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.80% year-on-year, with a net profit of 756.98 million yuan, down 65.72% year-on-year. The Q4 2024 revenue is expected to be 1.79 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 78% quarter-on-quarter and 56% year-on-year [7] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 1.54 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 36% but a year-on-year decrease of 14%. The net profit for Q1 2025 is projected at 130 million yuan, down 47% quarter-on-quarter and 36% year-on-year [7] - The company is expected to face challenges in copper smelting, with a loss of 100 million yuan in Q1 2025, but losses are anticipated to decrease in Q2 2025 [7] - The lithium salt sales in Q1 2025 were affected by maintenance, resulting in a 25% quarter-on-quarter decrease, but the annual sales are expected to reach 45,000 tons [7] Financial Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is 6.611 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 23.26%. The net profit is expected to be 603.68 million yuan, a decrease of 20.25% year-on-year [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 0.84 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 34.47 [1][8] - The company’s operating cash flow in Q1 2025 was negative 800 million yuan, a significant decrease of 652% quarter-on-quarter [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][6][17] Core Views - The company has diversified its multi-metal layout to withstand the downward pressure in the lithium industry, indicating potential for future growth [1][4] - The company reported a revenue of 5.36 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 10.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 757 million yuan, down 65.7% year-on-year [2][7] - The company is actively implementing cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures in response to the challenges in the lithium sector, including plans to gradually start a 30,000 tons/year lithium sulfate production capacity in Zimbabwe [3][9] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.36 billion yuan, a net profit of 757 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 600 million yuan, reflecting significant declines in profitability [2][7] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.54 billion yuan, an increase of 36.4% year-on-year, but a net profit of 130 million yuan, down 47.4% year-on-year [2][7] - The company’s cesium business generated a revenue of 1.4 billion yuan in 2024, up 24.2% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 78.3% [9][10] Business Segments - In the cesium business, the company achieved a revenue of 3.45 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 94%, solidifying its leading position in the industry [9][10] - The lithium business saw a production of approximately 43,700 tons in 2024, a 138% increase year-on-year, with sales of about 42,600 tons, up 145% year-on-year [3][9] - The copper business is expanding with the Kitumba project, which is expected to be operational by Q3 2026, with a designed capacity of 60,000 tons of cathode copper per year [10][11] Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 5.86 billion yuan, 7.81 billion yuan, and 11.53 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.3%, 33.2%, and 47.6% [4][17] - The net profit is expected to increase to 1.01 billion yuan, 1.70 billion yuan, and 2.81 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 33.6%, 67.7%, and 65.5% respectively [4][17] - The company maintains a strong long-term growth potential due to its robust exploration capabilities and the steady development of its cesium and lithium businesses [4][17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][6][17] Core Views - The company has diversified its multi-metal layout to withstand the downward pressure in the lithium industry, indicating promising future growth potential [1][4] - The company reported a revenue of 5.36 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 10.8% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 760 million yuan, down 65.7% year-on-year [2][7] - The company is actively implementing cost reduction and efficiency enhancement measures in response to the challenges in the lithium sector, including plans to gradually start a 30,000 tons/year lithium sulfate production capacity in Zimbabwe [3][9] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.36 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 760 million yuan, down 65.7% year-on-year [2][7] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 1.54 billion yuan, an increase of 36.4% year-on-year, but a net profit of 130 million yuan, down 47.4% year-on-year [2][7] - The company’s cesium business generated a revenue of 1.4 billion yuan in 2024, up 24.2% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 78.3% [9][10] Business Segment Performance - In the cesium business, the company achieved a revenue of 3.45 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a significant increase of 94% year-on-year [9][10] - The lithium business produced approximately 43,700 tons of lithium salt in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 138%, with sales of about 42,600 tons, up 145% [3][9] - The copper business is expanding with the Kitumba project, which is expected to be operational by Q3 2026, with a designed capacity of 60,000 tons of cathode copper per year [10][11] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.86 billion yuan, 7.81 billion yuan, and 11.53 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.3%, 33.2%, and 47.6% respectively [4][17] - Net profit projections for the same period are 1.01 billion yuan, 1.70 billion yuan, and 2.81 billion yuan, with growth rates of 33.6%, 67.7%, and 65.5% respectively [4][17] - The company is expected to maintain strong long-term growth potential due to its robust exploration capabilities and the steady development of its cesium and lithium businesses [4][17]