Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating and rebounding, and slightly closing up. The intraday price center of gravity slightly moved up to the 15,300 yuan/ton line. At the close, the price slightly rose 0.33% to 15,295 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread discount widened to 90 yuan/ton. After the macro - drive weakened, the domestic rubber market returned to a market dominated by supply - demand fundamentals [6]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing down. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,036 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,003 yuan/ton. At the close, it slightly fell 0.29% to 2,030 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread discount widened to 123 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic methanol futures are dominated by weak supply - demand fundamentals [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing down. The futures price rose to a maximum of 466.2 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 457.8 yuan/barrel. At the close, it slightly fell 0.43% to 458.8 yuan/barrel. There were differences between long and short positions. The game between supply surplus and seasonal demand recovery, combined with geopolitical factors, hindered the oil price rebound, and the oil price might fluctuate widely [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber** - As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 449,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,800 tons or 0.40%. The bonded area inventory was 67,800 tons, a decrease of 0.74%; the general trade inventory was 381,700 tons, an increase of 0.60%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse increased by 0.13 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.75 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 1.96 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.97 percentage points [9]. - As of the week of November 14, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.74 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.29%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.04 percentage points. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will further decline next week [9]. - In October 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.359 million and 3.322 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 2.5% and 3%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.1% and 8.8%. From January to October 2025, China's cumulative automobile production and sales reached 27.692 million and 27.687 million, a year - on - year increase of 13.2% and 12.4%. In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales reached 916,000 vehicles [10]. - **Methanol** - As of the week of November 14, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 83.94%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.69%, a month - on - month slight decrease of 0.44%, and a slight increase of 3.67% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 1.9761 million tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 16,000 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 7,600 tons, and a significant increase of 112,000 tons compared with 1.8641 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of November 14, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 31.23%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.37%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 6.27%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.83%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 63.64%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 4.81%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.91%, a week - on - week slight increase of 2.41%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 81.82%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 2.12 percentage points and a month - on - month significant decrease of 6.54%. As of November 14, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was 237 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight recovery of 109 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant rebound of 457 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of November 14, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.279 million tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 7,100 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 20,100 tons, and a significant increase of 246,500 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of November 13, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 369,300 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 17,200 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 9,400 tons, and a slight decrease of 21,200 tons compared with 390,500 tons in the same period last year [12]. - **Crude Oil** - As of the week of November 7, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 414, unchanged week - on - week and a decrease of 65 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.862 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 211,000 barrels/day and a significant increase of 462,000 barrels/day compared with the same period last year, reaching a historical high [12]. - As of the week of November 7, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 427.6 million barrels, a week - on - week significant increase of 6.413 million barrels and a significant decrease of 2.166 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 22.519 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 346,000 barrels; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 410.4 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 798,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 89.4%, a week - on - week slight recovery of 3.4 percentage points, a month - on - month slight increase of 3.7 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight decrease of 2.0 percentage points [13]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 102,958 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 4,249 contracts and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts compared with the average in August, a decrease of 15.65%. As of November 11, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 164,578 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 11,817 contracts and a significant increase of 45,167 contracts compared with the average in October, an increase of 37.82% [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,800 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,295 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | - 495 yuan/ton | +20 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,030 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 2,030 yuan/ton | +1 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | - 1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 430.5 yuan/barrel | +0.3 yuan/barrel | 458.8 yuan/barrel | - 0.4 yuan/barrel | - 28.3 yuan/barrel | +0.6 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Related Charts The report lists various charts related to rubber (such as rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, etc.), methanol (such as methanol basis, methanol port inventory, etc.), and crude oil (such as crude oil basis, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, etc.), but no specific chart analysis is provided [15][28][40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with the bonded warehouse showing destocking and general trade continuing to accumulate inventory Overseas vessel arrivals and warehousing remain at a high level, downstream stocking willingness is low, and new orders are scarce The demand side shows that most semi - steel tire enterprises' device operations are stable with narrow fluctuations in capacity utilization, while individual full - steel tire enterprises have maintenance arrangements, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate, which is expected to decline further The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15000 - 15600 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12150 - 12600 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15295 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12345 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 90 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 20 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2950 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan The trading volume and net positions of the top 20 in both contracts also have corresponding changes, and the exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber increase by 7770 tons to 115900 tons, while the 20 - number rubber warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 49695 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of various types of rubber in the Shanghai market, such as state - owned whole latex, Vietnam 3L, and mixed rubber from Thailand and Malaysia, have increased by 50 yuan/ton The prices of butadiene styrene 1502 and cis - butadiene BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical are 10700 yuan/ton and 10500 yuan/ton respectively, with the former increasing by 200 yuan/ton and the latter remaining unchanged The basis of Shanghai rubber and its non - standard products, as well as the basis of 20 - number rubber, also have corresponding changes [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference prices of various forms of Thai raw rubber, such as smoked sheets, films, glue water, and cup glue, have different changes The theoretical production profits of RSS3 and STR20 are 149.6 dollars/ton and - 5.4 dollars/ton respectively, with increases of 19 dollars/ton and 18 dollars/ton The monthly import volumes of technically classified natural rubber and mixed rubber are 12.26 million tons and 31.75 million tons respectively, with increases of 0.95 million tons and 4.91 million tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly opening rates of full - steel tires and semi - steel tires are 64.5% and 73.68% respectively, with the former decreasing by 0.96 percentage points and the latter increasing by 0.01 percentage points The inventory days of full - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong are 39.55 days and 45.36 days respectively, with increases of 0.35 days and 0.31 days The monthly production volumes of full - steel and semi - steel tires are 13.14 million pieces and 60.25 million pieces respectively, with increases of 110,000 pieces and 2.19 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of the underlying are 17.46% and 18.43% respectively, with the former decreasing by 0.05 percentage points and the latter increasing by 0.07 percentage points The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options are 20.57%, with increases of 0.1 and 0.11 percentage points respectively [2] 3.6 Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles, a 12% month - on - month decrease and a 40% year - on - year increase From January to October, the cumulative sales exceeded 916,000 vehicles, a 22% year - on - year increase As of November 16, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade is 452,600 tons, a 0.70% increase from the previous period The inventory in the bonded area decreased by 1.76% to 66,600 tons, while the general trade inventory increased by 1.13% to 386,000 tons As of November 13, the capacity utilization rates of China's semi - steel and full - steel tire sample enterprises are 72.99% and 64.29% respectively, with corresponding month - on - month and year - on - year changes [2]

行，由于检修企业在本周涉及检修天数增多，预计产能利用率将进一步下滑。br2601合约短线预计在1020 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 0-10700区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 合成橡胶产业日报 2025-11-18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 10505 | 50 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 72021 | -1785 | | | 合成橡胶12-1价差(日,元/吨) | 5 | -35 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 2980 | 0 | | | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 10500 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 0 | 10500 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 东(日,元/吨) ...

化工日报 | 2025-11-18 青岛港口库存继续小幅回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15315元/吨，较前一日变动+100元/吨；NR主力合约12355元/吨，较前一日变动+90 元/吨；BR主力合约10455元/吨，较前一日变动+10元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14850元/吨，较前一日变动+100元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14650元/吨，较前 一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1850美元/吨，较前一日变动+10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶 1745美元/吨，较前一日变动+10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10500元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙 江传化BR9000市场价10400元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 市场资讯 据第一商用车网初步统计，2025年10月份，我国重卡市场共计销售9.3万辆左右（批发口径，包含出口和新能源）， 环比今年9月下降约12%，比上年同期的6.64万辆大幅增长约40%。今年1-10月，我国重卡市场累计销量超过了90 万辆，达到91.6万辆，同比增长约22%，预计在11月过后，累计销量就会超过100万辆 ...

Core Viewpoint - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the rubber industry in China has focused on supply-side structural reforms, optimizing industrial structure, and achieving stable growth in total revenue and profit, while enhancing scale, quality, and efficiency [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The rubber products industry has shown steady growth over the past five years, with significant improvements in quality and efficiency, and a more complete industrial chain [1] - By 2024, compared to 2020, the number of large-scale enterprises in the rubber products industry increased by 26.7%, main business income grew by 26.7%, total profit rose by 14.4%, export delivery value increased by 41.2%, and the production of radial tires grew by 36.7% [1] Group 2: Development Highlights - Product structure optimization and acceleration of high-end processes, with a 19.8% increase in demand for tires for new energy vehicles and radial tire production exceeding 761 million units [2] - The orderly elimination of backward production capacity has led to increased industry concentration, with the top ten rubber product companies' sales revenue growing by 22% compared to 2020 [2] - Innovation capabilities are gradually enhancing, with R&D investment intensity reaching 2.8% and industrial internet platform coverage at 31% [2] Group 3: Environmental and International Efforts - Significant achievements in energy conservation and emission reduction, with clean energy accounting for 30% and comprehensive energy consumption reduced by 20% to 30% [3] - Accelerated international layout and increased international influence, with many tire companies establishing overseas factories in Southeast Asia, Europe, America, and Africa [3] Group 4: Brand and Standards - Strengthened brand building, with all-steel radial tires becoming a global competitive product and over ten domestic companies achieving domestic and international supply [4] - Improvement of the standard system, with a high international standard conversion rate of 89.72% and the rubber association publishing 68 group standards covering 14 specialized sectors [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are long - term bullish, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is recommended to sell call options [1][7][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is for short - term range trading; Aluminum is recommended to buy on dips; Nickel is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are for range trading [1][10][11][18]. - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to trade sideways; Soda ash 01 contract short - sellers are advised to exit and wait [1][20][22][25][31]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA is in low - level oscillation; Apples are expected to be slightly bullish; Jujubes are expected to be slightly bearish [1][34][35]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs' price rebounds are under pressure; Eggs' price increases are limited; Corn is in the process of bottom - building; Soybean meal is for range trading; Oils' price rebounds are limited [1][38][40][42]. Core Views - A - share market has hot - spot rotation, and the main line is unclear. Index futures may trade sideways. For Treasury bonds, the possibility of using aggregate monetary policy tools this year is relatively limited, and the market is in a range - trading pattern [5]. - In the black building materials market, the coal market is weak, and steel prices may trade at low levels. Glass demand is weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions [7][8]. - Non - ferrous metals are affected by macro and fundamental factors. Copper is in high - level oscillation, aluminum is in high - level trading with uncertainty, nickel has an oversupply situation in the medium - long term, and tin and precious metals are in range trading [11][12][17][18]. - Energy chemicals generally face supply - demand imbalances, with most products expected to trade sideways or weakly. Soda ash may have limited downside space [20][22][25][33]. - In the cotton textile industry chain, cotton and cotton yarn are under pressure due to loose supply - demand, PTA is in low - level oscillation, apples may be strong due to reduced production and quality, and jujubes' prices are weakening [34][35][37]. - In the agricultural and livestock market, pigs' supply is large in the short - to - medium term, egg supply is sufficient, corn is in the bottom - building process, soybean meal is in range trading, and oils' price rebounds are limited [38][40][42][46][53]. Summary by Industry Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: A - share market has个股涨跌互现, with hot - spot rotation. 1 - 10 national general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and expenditure increased by 2%. Index futures may trade sideways in the short term and are long - term bullish [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The third - quarter monetary policy report maintains a prudent and loose tone. The possibility of using aggregate monetary policy tools this year is limited, and the market is in a range - trading pattern, waiting for policy signals from the December Central Economic Work Conference [5][6]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal market is in a downward trend, with weak demand and widespread price cuts. Market participants are waiting and seeing [7]. - **Rebar**: Futures prices are below cost, with low static valuation. Macro利好 has been realized, and demand may decline. Steel mills may increase production cuts. Short - term steel prices are expected to trade at low levels, with the 01 contract focusing on the range of 3000 - 3100 [7][8]. - **Glass**: The main contract's open interest hits a new high. Supply is stable, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 01 contract and sell call options [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is in high - level oscillation, affected by US government policies, Fed policy expectations, and economic data in China. Fundamentally, raw material supply is tight, and consumption is average. Long - term demand is optimistic, but short - term risks exist. The main contract may trade in the range of 85000 - 88000 [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: Bauxite prices are stable, and alumina production capacity has decreased slightly. Aluminum production capacity is basically stable, and demand is affected by the off - season. Inventory has increased slightly. It is recommended to wait and see [12][13]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's new RKAB policy brings uncertainty. Nickel supply is expected to be loose in the medium - long term, with an oversupply situation. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [17]. - **Tin**: Domestic production has increased, and imports have decreased. The semiconductor industry is recovering, and inventory is at a medium level. Supply is expected to improve, and demand is weak. It is recommended for range trading [18]. - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by US government policies and Fed policy expectations, prices are in range trading. There is support from interest - rate cut expectations and risk - aversion demand [18][19]. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Cost is under pressure, supply is high, demand is weak, and exports may slow down. It is expected to trade weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 4700 pressure level [20][21][22]. - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by alumina production and inventory, the price is under pressure. It is expected to trade weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2400 pressure level [22][23]. - **Styrene**: Cost and supply - demand factors lead to a weak outlook. It is expected to trade weakly, focusing on the 6500 pressure level [23][25]. - **Rubber**: Raw material prices are high, inventory is increasing, and demand is weak. It is expected to trade in a range, focusing on the 15000 support level [25][26]. - **Urea**: Supply has increased, demand is diversified, and inventory is high. It is expected to trade in a wide range [27][28]. - **Methanol**: Supply has increased, demand has decreased, and inventory has accumulated. It is expected to trade weakly. Key factors to watch include macro changes, device maintenance, and coal prices [28]. - **Polyolefins**: Supply pressure is increasing, demand is weak, and costs are under pressure. PE is expected to trade in a range, focusing on the 6800 support level; PP is expected to trade weakly, focusing on the 6500 support level [29]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is expected to contract, and demand is stable. The 01 contract short - sellers are advised to exit and wait [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global supply - demand is loose, and downstream consumption is weak. Prices are under pressure [34]. - **PTA**: Oil prices are weak, supply - demand is in a state of inventory accumulation, and prices are in low - level oscillation, focusing on the 4400 - 4700 range [34][35]. - **Apples**: Production and quality have decreased, and prices may remain strong [35]. - **Jujubes**: Acquisition prices are falling, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to decline [37]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: Short - term prices are in a narrow range, and medium - long - term supply is large. It is recommended to hold short positions in 01, 03, and 05 contracts and pay attention to the 05 - 03 spread arbitrage [38][39][40]. - **Eggs**: Supply is sufficient, and price increases are limited. The 12 - contract is recommended to short on rallies, and the 01 contract is expected to trade in a range [40][41]. - **Corn**: Short - term prices are supported by reduced supply, and medium - long - term supply - demand is relatively loose. The 01 contract is recommended to short on rallies, and attention should be paid to the 3 - 5 spread arbitrage [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean market is in a wide - range oscillation. Domestic supply may improve in December. The M2601 contract is for range trading, and spot enterprises can fix prices at low points [46][47]. - **Oils**: Short - term price rebounds are limited, and it is recommended not to chase the rise but to buy on dips. Attention should be paid to the rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread and palm oil 1 - 5 spread arbitrage [47][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention through a decline in exports when prices fall [3]. - For methanol, high port inventories are suppressing prices. Overseas production remains high, and the supply pressure persists while demand is weak. It's expected that inventories will be hard to reduce in the short term, and prices may decline further. Given the current significant and rapid drop, it's recommended to wait and see [6]. - For urea, the market is sensitive to positive news due to large internal - external price differences and low domestic prices. Domestic demand lacks support, and supply is high. New export policies have improved the market atmosphere, and inventories are being reduced. It's expected that the downside space is limited, and the market will mainly bottom out through oscillations [9]. - For natural rubber, a short - term long - bias trading strategy is recommended, and a partial position can be established for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, the fundamental situation is poor. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are turning negative. There is a continuous inventory build - up pressure. It's advisable to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread has room for upward correction. The supply of pure benzene is relatively abundant, and the production of styrene is increasing. Styrene port inventories are decreasing significantly, and prices may stop falling in stages [17]. - For polyethylene, the crude oil price may have bottomed out, and the downward valuation space of PE is limited. However, a high number of warehouse receipts is suppressing the market. Overall inventories are being reduced from a high level, and prices may remain in a low - level oscillation [20]. - For polypropylene, the cost - end supply surplus may expand. Supply pressure is high, and demand is weak. Overall inventory pressure is high, and the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation at the cost end changes in the first quarter of 2026 [23]. - For PX, it's expected to have a slight inventory build - up in November, but there is support from aromatics blending for gasoline and the long - term supply - demand structure. There are opportunities for valuation to rise in the medium term [26]. - For PTA, there will be continuous inventory build - up in November due to new device launches, and processing fees will be under pressure. The polyester load is unlikely to increase significantly. There are opportunities for PTA to strengthen driven by an increase in PXN in the medium term [28][29]. - For ethylene glycol, there will be continuous inventory build - up in the fourth quarter. Valuation is relatively low and may be further compressed. It's recommended to short - sell on rallies [31]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 2.70 yuan/barrel, a 0.59% increase, at 458.10 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 24.00 yuan/ton, a 0.92% decrease, at 2593.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 14.00 yuan/ton, a 0.43% increase, at 3236.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data shows a 0.41 - million - barrel decrease in arrival inventory to 206.43 million barrels, a 0.20% decline; gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 1.34 million barrels to 86.96 million barrels, a 1.52% decline; diesel commercial inventory decreased by 0.60 million barrels to 95.60 million barrels, a 0.62% decline; and total refined oil commercial inventory decreased by 1.94 million barrels to 182.57 million barrels, a 1.05% decline [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, but wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 32, remained stable in southern Shandong, decreased by 20 in Inner Mongolia, and the 01 - contract on the futures market decreased by 26 yuan to 2029 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 14. The 1 - 5 spread was - 8, reported at - 116 [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see due to high inventories, high overseas production, weak demand, and potential price decline [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong remained stable, decreased by 10 in Henan, and remained stable in Hubei. The 01 - contract on the futures market increased by 10 yuan to 1662 yuan, with a basis of - 72. The 1 - 5 spread was 0, reported at - 75 [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is sensitive to positive news. Domestic demand is weak, and supply is high. New export policies have improved the situation, and the market will mainly bottom out through oscillations [9]. Natural Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price rebounded in oscillations. Typhoons affected rainfall in the Thai production area, and the November warehouse receipts of natural rubber on the Shanghai Exchange will expire and be out of storage. The market has a positive expectation. The long - side believes in limited production growth, seasonal price increases, and improved demand in China, while the short - side points out uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal weak demand, and potential under - performance of supply benefits. As of November 13, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.70%, 0.84 percentage points lower than last week but 5.70 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.37%, 0.08 percentage points lower than last week and 4.38 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of November 9, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 105.63 tons, a 0.03 - ton increase (0.03% increase); the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 66.43 tons, a 0.97% increase; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 39.21 tons, a 1.52% decrease. The total inventory in Qingdao increased by 0.24 tons to 43.87 tons. In the spot market, the price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 14600 (+50) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1830 (+5) dollars, and STR20 mixed was 1820 (+5) dollars. The price of butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 6950 (+0) yuan, and the price of cis - polybutadiene in North China was 10000 (+100) yuan [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a short - term long - bias trading strategy and partially establish a hedge position [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 7 yuan to 4601 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4510 (-10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 91 (-2) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 315 (-5) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2400 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 870 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of ethylene was 735 (-5) dollars/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.5%, a 2.2% decrease; the calcium carbide method was 80.8%, a 0.4% decrease; the ethylene method was 73.3%, a 6.4% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.5%, a 0.1% decrease. Factory inventory was 32.2 tons (-1.2), and social inventory was 102.8 tons (-1.3) [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamental situation is poor, and consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged at 5375 yuan/ton, the closing price of the active contract increased by 22 yuan/ton to 5547 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 173 yuan/ton, a 22 - yuan decrease. The spot price of styrene increased by 125 yuan/ton to 6450 yuan/ton, the closing price of the active contract increased by 46 yuan/ton to 6496 yuan/ton, and the basis was 0 yuan/ton, a 112 - yuan increase. The BZN spread was 106.87 yuan/ton, a 20.12 - yuan increase. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 363.25 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase. The EB 1 - 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 69.25%, a 2.31% increase. The inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.45 tons to 17.48 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 41.00%, a 0.21% increase; the PS operating rate was 55.40%, a 1.90% increase; the EPS operating rate was 51.63%, a 2.32% decrease; the ABS operating rate was 71.80%, a 0.20% increase [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The BZN spread has room for upward correction, and styrene prices may stop falling in stages [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 6843 yuan/ton, the spot price remained unchanged at 6865 yuan/ton, and the basis was 12 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan weakening. The upstream operating rate was 83.72%, a 1.95% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory increased by 3.90 tons to 52.92 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.01 tons to 5.00 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 44.9%, a 0.05% increase. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 62 yuan/ton, a 13 - yuan expansion [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price may have bottomed out, and PE valuation has limited downward space. However, high warehouse receipts are suppressing the market, and prices will remain in a low - level oscillation [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract decreased by 7 yuan to 6467 yuan/ton, the spot price remained unchanged at 6525 yuan/ton, and the basis was 51 yuan/ton, a 6 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 80.82%, a 1.34% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory increased by 2.01 tons to 62 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.13 tons to 21.73 tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.23 tons to 6.69 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 53.14%, a 0.52% increase. The LL - PP spread was 376 yuan/ton, a 3 - yuan decrease [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - end supply surplus may expand. Supply pressure is high, and demand is weak. Wait for the change in the supply - surplus situation at the cost end in the first quarter of 2026 [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 10 yuan to 6796 yuan, the CFR price decreased by 1 dollar to 831 dollars, and the basis was - 13 yuan (+1), the 1 - 3 spread was - 24 yuan (-2). The PX load in China was 86.8%, a 3% decrease; the Asian load was 78.5%, a 1.7% decrease. Shanghai Petrochemical stopped production, Sinochem Quanzhou had an unexpected early maintenance, and Vietnam's NSRP plans to reduce production for 2 weeks this weekend. The PTA load was 75.7%, a 0.7% decrease. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 14.5 tons of PX to China in early November, a 1.8 - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of September was 402.6 tons, a 10.8 - ton increase month - on - month. The PXN was 255 dollars (-2), the South Korean PX - MX was 99 dollars (-1), and the naphtha crack spread was 106 dollars (-1) [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect a slight inventory build - up in November, but there are opportunities for valuation to rise in the medium term [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 8 yuan to 4692 yuan, the East China spot price decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 4615 yuan, the basis was - 73 yuan (+2), the 1 - 5 spread was - 64 yuan (-2). The PTA load was 75.7%, a 0.7% decrease. The downstream load was 90.5%, a 0.8% decrease. Terminal draw - texturing load remained unchanged at 88%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 74%. On November 7, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 222.7 tons, a 2 - ton increase. The spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 15 yuan to 165 yuan, and the processing fee on the futures market decreased by 1 yuan to 234 yuan [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There will be continuous inventory build - up in November, and processing fees will be under pressure. There are opportunities for PTA to strengthen driven by an increase in PXN in the medium term [28][29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 16 yuan to 3938 yuan, the East China spot price remained unchanged at 3980 yuan, the basis was 42 yuan (-11), the 1 - 5 spread was - 85 yuan (+6). The supply - end operating rate of ethylene glycol was 71.6%, a 0.9% decrease; the synthetic gas method was 68%, a 4.3% decrease; the ethylene method was 73.6%, a 0.9% increase. Import arrival forecast was 18.1 tons, and the average daily departure from East China ports from November 14 - 16 was 0.9 tons. Port inventory was 73.2 tons, a 7.1 - ton increase. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 826 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 614 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 150 yuan. The price of ethylene decreased to 735 dollars, and the price of lump coal in Yulin decreased to 650 yuan [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect continuous inventory build - up in the fourth quarter, and consider short - selling on rallies [31].

Group 1: Market Overview - The national production material market prices remained stable compared to the previous week [1] - Coal prices experienced slight increases, with thermal coal, coking coal, and anthracite priced at 779 yuan, 1058 yuan, and 1164 yuan per ton, reflecting increases of 1.4%, 0.5%, and 0.3% respectively [1] - Basic chemical raw material prices predominantly increased, with sulfuric acid and soda ash rising by 1.5% and 0.6%, while methanol and polypropylene decreased by 0.7% and 0.3% [1] Group 2: Metal and Fuel Prices - Non-ferrous metal prices showed minor fluctuations, with copper decreasing by 1.7%, while zinc and aluminum increased by 0.9% and 0.7% respectively [1] - Refined oil wholesale prices showed a slight decline, with 0 diesel remaining stable, while 95 and 92 gasoline decreased by 0.3% [1] Group 3: Fertilizer and Steel Prices - Fertilizer prices saw a slight decrease, with urea dropping by 0.4%, while ternary compound fertilizer remained stable compared to the previous week [2] - Steel prices experienced a minor decline, with hot-rolled strip steel, rebar, and high-speed wire priced at 3490 yuan, 3313 yuan, and 3513 yuan per ton, reflecting decreases of 0.8%, 0.7%, and 0.5% respectively [2] Group 4: Rubber Prices - Rubber prices experienced slight declines, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber decreasing by 2.5% and 1.5% respectively [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continued to accumulate, with the bonded warehouse showing destocking and general trade continuing to accumulate inventory. Overseas shipments arriving at the port for warehousing remained at a high level. Factories had sufficient replenishment in the early stage. Most of the outbound shipments from the general - trade warehouse were for the delivery of previous orders. Downstream stocking willingness was low, and new orders were few, so the general - trade inventory continued to accumulate. In terms of demand, last week, most semi - steel tire enterprises had stable device operation with narrow fluctuations in capacity utilization. Some all - steel tire enterprises had maintenance arrangements, dragging down the overall enterprise capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will further decline. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,570 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,400 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,315 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,355 yuan/ton. The Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 spread was 15 yuan/ton, and the 20 - number rubber 12 - 1 spread was - 70 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 10 yuan/ton. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 126,129 lots, a decrease of 3,854 lots. The position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 64,475 lots, a decrease of 30,902 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was 586 lots, and that of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was 493 lots. The Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 108,130 tons, a decrease of 340 tons, and the 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 49,695 tons, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,800 yuan/ton, and the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,200 yuan/ton. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,840 US dollars/ton, and the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,840 US dollars/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton, and the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,550 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 10,500 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 10,500 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The RSS3 theoretical production profit was 19 US dollars/ton, and the STR20 theoretical production profit was 149.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.4 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 0.95 million tons, and the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 12.26 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The all - steel tire opening rate was 64.5%, and the semi - steel tire opening rate was 73.68%. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.55 days, and those of semi - steel tires were 45.36 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 11 million pieces, and that of semi - steel tires was 6,025 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.51%, and the 40 - day historical volatility was 18.36%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option was 20.47%, and that of the at - the - money put option was 20.46% [2] Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 930,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September and a year - on - year increase of about 40% compared with 664,000 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 9.16 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. As of November 16, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 452,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,100 tons, an increase of 0.70%. The bonded area inventory was 66,600 tons, a decrease of 1.76%; the general trade inventory was 386,000 tons, an increase of 1.13%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 0.05 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.53 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.37 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.71 percentage points. As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.74 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.29%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.04 percentage points [2]

Market Overview - The rubber sector increased by 2.34% on November 17, with Kexin Innovation leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3972.03, down 0.46%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13202.0, down 0.11% [1] Key Performers in Rubber Sector - Kexin Innovation (300731) closed at 47.90, up 8.40%, with a trading volume of 175,500 shares and a transaction value of 828 million [1] - Litong Technology (920225) closed at 46.30, up 6.19%, with a trading volume of 94,200 shares [1] - Tiantie Technology (300587) closed at 8.02, up 5.53%, with a trading volume of 524,600 shares and a transaction value of 414 million [1] - Yuanchang New Materials (301300) closed at 47.10, up 5.11%, with a trading volume of 158,200 shares and a transaction value of 267 million [1] - Heimao Co. (002068) closed at 11.12, up 4.71%, with a trading volume of 608,700 shares and a transaction value of 682 million [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The rubber sector saw a net inflow of 142 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net inflow of 55.86 million [2] - Retail funds showed a net outflow of 198 million, indicating a mixed sentiment among different investor types [2] Individual Stock Fund Flow - Heimao Co. (002068) had a net inflow of 56.24 million from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 5.97 million [3] - Kexin Innovation (300731) experienced a net inflow of 30.32 million from institutional investors, with retail investors showing a net outflow of 3.65 million [3] - Tiantie Technology (300587) had a net inflow of 29.78 million from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 20.93 million [3]