投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 9 月 24 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏多情绪回暖 能化震荡偏强 核心观点 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 橡胶：本周三国内沪胶期货 2601 合约呈现缩量减仓，震荡企稳， 略微收涨的走势，盘中期价重心略微上移至 15620 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价略微收涨 0.32%至 15620 元/吨。1-5 月差升水幅度扩张至 75 元/吨。随着美联储降息预期落地兑现，阶段性利好出尽。胶市转入偏 弱供需结构主导的行情，预计后市国内沪胶期货 2601 合约或维持震荡 偏弱的走势。 甲醇：本周三国内甲醇期货 2601 合约呈现缩量减仓，震荡偏强， 略微收涨的走势，期价最高上涨至 2367 元/吨一线，最低下探至 2337 元/吨，收盘时略微收涨 0.47%至 2351 元/吨。1-5 月差贴水幅度收敛 至 28 元/吨。受偏弱的甲醇供需基本面压制，预计后市国内甲醇期货 2601 合约或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 作者声明 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The global natural rubber production areas are in the tapping season. In the Yunnan production area, rainfall disruptions still exist, and with strong purchasing demand from processing plants, raw material prices remain firm. In the Hainan production area, the weather is favorable for tapping operations, and raw materials are being produced normally. Although Typhoon "Hikaa" is approaching, local processing plants are not actively competing for raw materials due to average orders and profit margins. Recently, the inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to decline, but the decline rate has narrowed. The bonded warehouse is still reducing inventory, while the general trade warehouse has continued to accumulate a small amount of inventory. Overseas shipments are arriving at the port and being warehoused in a concentrated manner, and the warehousing volume at Qingdao warehouses has increased significantly and exceeded expectations. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has fluctuated slightly. The domestic sales of winter tires in the semi - steel tire segment are in the concentrated production period, which still supports the overall production. However, the demand in the replacement market for all - steel tires has not improved significantly, and some enterprises face pressure in foreign trade exports. Currently, although some enterprises still face shortages, overall sales performance is below expectations, and some enterprises' inventories may increase. To relieve pressure, some enterprises may flexibly control production. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15300 - 15750, and the nr2511 contract... (The text is incomplete here) [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15620 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 95 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is 75 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 35 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12465 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 70 yuan; the 11 - 12 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 25 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3155 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 25 yuan. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 153328 lots, with a daily decrease of 1131 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 54216 lots, with a daily decrease of 4506 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 26821 lots, with a daily decrease of 684 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 11684 lots, with a daily decrease of 75 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 155830 tons, with a daily increase of 810 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 44856 tons, with no change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14800 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15250 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1835 US dollars/ton, with no change; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1835 US dollars/ton, with no change. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14780 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 70 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14730 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 70 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12100 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 is 11700 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 820 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 45 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 745 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13180 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 132 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 715 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 62 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 59.73 Thai baht/kg, with a daily increase of 0.06 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 57.3 Thai baht/kg, with no change. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (latex) is 55.3 Thai baht/kg, with a daily decrease of 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 50.45 Thai baht/kg, with a daily increase of 0.1 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 151 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 7.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 5 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 12 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 11.31 million tons, with a decrease of 0.88 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 26.84 million tons, with an increase of 0.89 million tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.66%, with a weekly increase of 0.07 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 73.66%, with a weekly increase of 0.2 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 39.13 days, with a weekly increase of 0.3 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 46.02 days, with a weekly increase of 0.08 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, with an increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, with an increase of 1.09 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 16.06%, with a daily decrease of 1.14 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 16.41%, with a daily decrease of 0.42 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.95%, with a daily increase of 0.01 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.97%, with no change [2] 3.6 Industry News - From September 21st to September 27th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia has increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas are mainly concentrated in northern and central Vietnam, western Thailand, southern Myanmar, etc., and the rainfall in most other areas is moderate, which has an increasing impact on tapping operations. In the southern hemisphere, there are no red areas, and the rainfall in most other areas is low, which has a decreasing impact on tapping operations. As of September 21st, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 461,200 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.76%. The bonded area inventory is 69,400 tons, a decrease of 5.07%; the general trade inventory is 391,800 tons, an increase of 0.04%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses has increased by 0.59 percentage points, and the outbound rate has decreased by 2.91 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses has increased by 1.32 percentage points, and the outbound rate has increased by 1.78 percentage points. As of September 18th, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises is 66.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of domestic butadiene rubber is sufficient, and the negotiation center on the spot side is under continuous pressure. Some industry players expect a certain reduction in the mainstream supply price. [2] - Before the National Day holiday, downstream buyers have a demand for stocking up. It is expected that buying will gradually pick up, and the inventory level is expected to continue to decline. [2] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuates slightly. The semi - steel tire market has some support for overall production, while the all - steel tire market has no obvious improvement in demand and some export pressure. [2] - The short - term capacity utilization rate of enterprises may be slightly reduced, and the br2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,250 - 11,700. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,520 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 90 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 58,650, with a week - on - week decrease of 6,938. [2] - The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is 20 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses is 2,570 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 40 tons. [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,550 - 11,600 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. [2] - The mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,500 - 11,650 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 - 150 yuan/ton. [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber is 80 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton. [2] - Brent crude oil is 67.63 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.06 US dollars/barrel; Naphtha CFR Japan is 597.5 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1.87 US dollars/ton. [2] - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 845 US dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,060 US dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change. [2] - WTI crude oil is 63.41 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.13 US dollars/barrel; the mainstream market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9,350 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.11 million tons/week, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 66.78%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.55 percentage points. [2] - The port inventory of butadiene is 23,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,500 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 51.85%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.21 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 135,700 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6,500 tons; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 69.72%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.76 percentage points. [2] - The production profit of butadiene rubber is - 658 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 149 yuan/ton; the social inventory of butadiene rubber is 33,700 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 800 tons. [2] - The manufacturer's inventory of butadiene rubber is 25,900 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 400 tons; the trader's inventory of butadiene rubber is 7,820 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 390 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.66%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.66%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.07 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.09 million pieces. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.13 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.3 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.02 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.08 days. [2] Industry News - As of September 18, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises is 33,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 800 tons, or - 2.29%. [2] - As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.74%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises is 66.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points. [2] - In August 2025, the output of Chinese butadiene rubber is 135,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,500 tons, or + 5.02%, and a year - on - year increase of 30.73%. [2]

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603650 | 彤程新材 | 41.55 | 10.01% | 39.92万 | | 15.98 Z | | 300587 | 天铁科技 | 8.93 | 3.84% | 34.94万 | | 3.10亿 | | 300121 | 阳谷华泰 | 17.07 | 3.52% | 62.80万 | | 10.65 Z | | 605183 | 确成股份 | 20.26 | 3.16% | 4.23万 | 8520.62万 | | | 002068 | 量猫股份 | 11.66 | 3.00% | 55.18万 | | 6.50亿 | | 002753 | 永东股份 | 6.89 | 2.84% | 7.03万 | 4789.69万 | | | 873665 | 科强股份 | 13.93 | 2.35% | 8178.24 | 1137.77万 | | | 603033 | 三维股份 | 12.13 | 1.85% | 5.90万 | ...

Agricultural Products Market - The national edible agricultural product market price decreased by 0.1% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 4.68 yuan per kilogram, down 1.5%, with cucumber, spinach, and rapeseed decreasing by 9.7%, 9.5%, and 7.4% respectively [1] - The wholesale price of meat showed slight fluctuations, with pork priced at 19.81 yuan per kilogram, down 0.8%, while beef remained stable and lamb increased by 0.5% [1] - The average wholesale price of six types of fruits slightly increased, with watermelon, pear, and apple rising by 3.0%, 1.1%, and 0.8% respectively [1] - Poultry product prices remained stable, with eggs increasing by 3.8% [1] Production Materials Market - The prices of basic chemical raw materials mainly decreased, with sulfuric acid and methanol dropping by 4.0% and 0.2% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices showed a stable decline, with urea decreasing by 0.3% [2] - Non-ferrous metal prices slightly retreated, with zinc, aluminum, and copper decreasing by 0.6%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - The price of coal showed slight fluctuations, with thermal coal priced at 759 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.4% [2] - Steel prices slightly increased, with high-speed wire, rebar, and hot-rolled strip steel priced at 3567 yuan, 3385 yuan, and 3590 yuan per ton, respectively, all showing increases [2]

Price Trends in Various Markets - The national production material market prices decreased by 0.2% from September 15 to 21 compared to the previous week [1] - Basic chemical raw material prices mainly declined, with sulfuric acid and methanol decreasing by 4.0% and 0.2% respectively, while polypropylene remained stable and soda ash increased by 0.3% [1] - Fertilizer prices showed stability with a slight decrease, where urea fell by 0.3% and compound fertilizers remained unchanged [2] - Non-ferrous metal prices experienced a slight decline, with zinc, aluminum, and copper decreasing by 0.6%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively [3] - Rubber prices saw a minor decrease, with both synthetic and natural rubber dropping by 0.1% [4] Energy and Coal Prices - Wholesale prices for finished oil products remained stable, with 0 diesel, 92 gasoline, and 95 gasoline showing no significant change from the previous week [5] - Coal prices exhibited slight fluctuations, with thermal coal priced at 759 yuan per ton (up 0.4%), smokeless lump coal at 1136 yuan per ton (stable), and coking coal at 1000 yuan per ton (down 0.1%) [5] Steel Prices - Steel prices experienced a slight increase, with high-speed wire rod, rebar, and hot-rolled strip steel priced at 3567 yuan, 3385 yuan, and 3590 yuan per ton, reflecting increases of 0.6%, 0.6%, and 0.2% respectively [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [7] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber (RU and NR), until the end of September, rainfall in major producing areas will continue to support rubber costs, limiting the downside of rubber prices. The concentrated replenishment of downstream tire factories may be over, and with a slight increase in recent domestic arrivals, the domestic inventory reduction is expected to slow down. Tire demand is in a seasonal peak, with recent increases in tire factory operating rates and ongoing raw material consumption, resulting in limited supply - demand contradictions. After the downstream purchasing demand subsides, rubber prices are expected to weaken, but the overall decline will be limited [7] - For cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber (BR), recently shut - down plants will gradually restart, increasing the supply. The demand side shows peak - season characteristics, but raw material demand has declined after the concentrated replenishment of tire factories. Supply - demand is becoming more relaxed. There are concerns about cost drag, mainly due to the weakening of crude oil prices and high inventories of butadiene. BR prices are expected to weaken, but the large price difference with natural rubber will still support the downside [7] Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,525 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,395 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,430 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton [2] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,780 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,835 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Indonesian 20 - standard rubber was 1,750 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,450 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Market Information Import and Export of Rubber and Tires - In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a month - on - month increase of 4.73% and a year - on - year increase of 7.79%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import was 5.373 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.06% [3] - In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 650,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 626,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the export value was 109.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume was 47.86 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [3] - From January to August, the export volume of automobile tires was 555,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; the export value was 94.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [4] - In the first eight months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber export volume was 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In August alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [4] Automobile Production, Sales and Export - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 84,000 units (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market were about 708,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 13% [4] - From January to August, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 9.625 million and 9.62 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 37.3% and 36.7% respectively, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total new vehicle sales. In terms of exports, from January to August, automobile exports were 4.292 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, new energy vehicle exports were 1.532 million units, a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [4] Spot and Spreads - On September 23, 2025, the RU basis was - 775 yuan/ton (+90), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 745 yuan/ton (-20), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,556 yuan/ton (-136.43), the NR basis was 644.00 yuan/ton (+21.00); the price of whole latex was 14,750 yuan/ton (+0), the price of mixed rubber was 14,780 yuan/ton (-70), the price of 3L spot was 15,200 yuan/ton (+0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,835 US dollars/ton (+0), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 450 yuan/ton (+0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,680 yuan/ton (-70) [5] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheet was 59.73 Thai baht/kg (+0.06), the price of Thai latex was 55.30 Thai baht/kg (-0.50), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.45 Thai baht/kg (+0.10), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.85 Thai baht/kg (-0.60) [5] Operating Rates - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 66.36% (+0.05%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.74% (+0.13%) [6] - The operating rate of high - cis cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber was 69.72% (-3.76%) [6] Inventories - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,235,510 tons (-22,205.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (-3,550), the RU futures inventory was 154,920 tons (+3,180), and the NR futures inventory was 44,553 tons (-1,411) [6] - The inventory of cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber held by traders was 7,820 tons (-390), and the inventory held by enterprises was 25,900 tons (-400) [6] Cis - 1,4 - Polybutadiene Rubber Spot and Spreads - On September 23, 2025, the BR basis was - 30 yuan/ton (+25), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,150 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,450 yuan/ton (+0), the price of private - owned cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,400 yuan/ton (+0), and the import profit of cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,514 yuan/ton (+214) [6]

音烙橡胶呈报 图1 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/24 R 不 A A POY 1 石脑油 PX CFR |PTA内盘现 PTA平衡 仓单+有 PTA加 PTA负 石脑油裂 聚酯毛利 TA基美 50D/4 PX加工美 日期 原油 产销 工差 效预报 日本 台湾 न्ह 解价差 荷 负荷 8F Hill 2025/0 6705 68.0 609 836 4620 110.81 227.0 102 140 80.7 75.9 0 -78 0.45 9/17 2025/0 105.04 67.4 599 827 4630 6680 228.0 155 110 80.7 75.9 6012 -78 0.45 9/18 图H 2025/0 66.7 107.99 -78 0.50 597 816 4555 6655 219.0 136 153 80.6 75.9 15804 9/19 2025/0 808 212.0 31310 66.6 596 4510 6600 107.67 137 139 80.6 75.9 -80 0.50 9/22 2025/0 (图H 67.6 598 107.67 80.6 -80 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The data of the synthetic rubber industry chain this week was unexpectedly all positive, and the price difference with natural rubber began to strengthen. When the story of "anti - involution" ends, the macro - attribute of natural rubber fades, and it is suitable as a short - position allocation for synthetic rubber. It is recommended to intervene in the BR - RU strategy in small amounts, with a unilateral price range of 11,450 - 11,650 [22][24]. Summary by Directory Fundamentals - **New rubber supply and market sentiment**: The supply of new rubber in domestic and foreign production areas increased slowly this week, and port inventories continued to decline. News of state reserve sales, the launch of Thailand's zero - tariff policy pilot project in September 2025, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting made the commodity market cautious. Light - colored rubber had weak orders and high procurement costs, resulting in poor trading performance. Dark - colored rubber was mainly purchased by tire factories before the Double Festival at low prices [4]. - **Supply and demand situation**: Thailand's cumulative production increased year - on - year. The import of mixed and standard rubber was negative for the mixed basis. The climate conditions in the main production areas were normal, indicating sufficient supply. In terms of consumption, all - steel tires increased production and reduced inventory, while semi - steel tires decreased production and reduced inventory, and both were approaching a tight balance [4]. Synthetic Rubber Supply - **Capacity utilization and inventory**: China's butadiene capacity utilization rate dropped to 66.8% for two consecutive weeks, with a year - on - year production reduction of 1.2 and marginal production reduction for two consecutive weeks. The capacity utilization rate of China's high - cis butadiene rubber dropped to 69.7% for two consecutive weeks, with a year - on - year production increase of 10.5% and marginal production reduction. China's butadiene port inventory dropped to 23,100 tons for two consecutive weeks, with a year - on - year inventory increase of 3,100 tons and marginal inventory reduction. The inventory of domestic butadiene rubber traders and factories decreased to 33,700 tons, with a year - on - year inventory increase of 9,200 tons and marginal inventory accumulation for three consecutive weeks [12]. Downstream Consumption - Tire Consumption - **All - steel tires**: The production line operating rate of all - steel tires increased to 65.7% for two consecutive weeks, with a year - on - year increase of 13.4% and marginal production increase for six consecutive weeks. The finished product inventory of all - steel tires remained at 39 days for three consecutive weeks, with a year - on - year inventory reduction of 14.3% and marginal inventory reduction for two consecutive weeks, showing passive inventory reduction and a tightening balance [21]. - **Semi - steel tires**: The production line operating rate of semi - steel tires increased to 73.7% for two consecutive weeks, with a year - on - year decrease of 4.5% and marginal production reduction for nine consecutive weeks. The product inventory of semi - steel tires remained at 46 days for three consecutive weeks, with a year - on - year inventory increase of 21.8% and marginal inventory reduction for 17 consecutive weeks, showing active inventory reduction [21]. BR - RU Price Difference - **Price situation**: The price of Dushanzi BR9000 in the Shandong market was weakly volatile this week, with the spot price ranging from 11,400 to 11,800 yuan/ton. The overall supply had limited support, and the trading center was under pressure. The mainstream supply price gradually decreased at the end of the cycle [22]. - **Supply and demand indicators**: The capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber decreased by 3.8%, with strong positive effects. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene decreased by 1.6%, with strong positive effects. The all - steel tire operating rate increased by 0.1%, with strong positive effects; the all - steel tire inventory remained unchanged, with weak positive effects. The semi - steel tire operating rate increased by 0.2%, with weak positive effects; the semi - steel tire inventory remained unchanged, with weak positive effects. The butadiene rubber inventory decreased by 0.08 tons, with weak positive effects; the butadiene port inventory decreased by 0.25 tons, with strong positive effects [22]. RU Contract Inventory - The total inventory of the SHFE RU contract increased to 196,800 tons, reaching the lowest level in the same period in history. The total inventory of the RU contract was 42,600 tons higher than the inventory futures (warehouse receipts), and it had been significantly higher than the same period last year since May [30]. Mixed Basis and Inventory - **Inventory situation**: As of September 2025, the NR warehouse receipts had increased for three consecutive months to 49,900 tons. The inventory in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone had decreased for four consecutive months to 69,300 tons, and the inventory outside the zone had decreased for two consecutive months to 520,200 tons. The total inventory in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 639,400 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 11.3% and marginal inventory increase for 11 consecutive months [32]. - **Supply and related data**: In September, the sum of the inventory outside the zone and the mixed rubber import volume was 8.109 million tons, and the standard rubber import volume was 54,900 tons, with a ratio of 14.76, a year - on - year increase of 61.9% and marginal increase for three consecutive months, which was negative for the mixed basis. In July, the global automobile sales volume decreased to 7.73 million, with marginal increase for six consecutive months. In August, the domestic manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4 points, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. In July, the preferential quota in the domestic passenger car market decreased to 27,600 yuan/vehicle, a year - on - year increase of 4.8% and marginal decline for three consecutive months [40]. Downstream Consumption - European Automobile Industry - The domestic automobile inventory index increased to 54.7 points, a year - on - year increase of 6.1% and marginal inventory increase, which was negative for the RU unilateral price. As of September 2025, the European automobile industry index rebounded to - 26.5 points, which was positive for the RU unilateral price [55]. RU Month - Spread - The current fundamentals still support the positive spread logic of the near - month contract strengthening. In August, the domestic capital annualized interest rate was 1.49%, with interest rate cuts for four consecutive months, which led to the narrowing of the September - January spread. In September, the RU warehouse receipts had decreased for five consecutive months to 166,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.5%, with the largest decline since August 2023 and marginal decrease for eight consecutive months, which was positive for the near - end contract [56][61]. Real Estate and RU Price - **Policy situation**: On September 6, 2025, Shenzhen issued real estate regulation and optimization policies; on September 12, Minister Ni Hong of the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development called on state - owned and central enterprises to promote a new real estate development model; on September 12, Henan introduced policies to support housing consumption [66]. - **Sales data**: In July 2025, the cumulative domestic commercial housing sales area was 516 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9% and marginal increase for 13 consecutive months, which was significantly positive for the RU unilateral price. In August 2025, the weekly average domestic commercial housing transaction area was 6.85 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9% and marginal increase, which was significantly positive for the RU unilateral price [66].

据"加纳新闻网"9月22日报道，由于生橡胶持续的违规出口，加纳每年可能面临超过1亿美元的增值 收入损失，这一缺口体现了加纳通过原材料出口而丧失的庞大经济机遇。 加纳橡胶加工协会(RUPAG)发出警告表示树木作物发展局(TCDA)于2023年颁布的生橡胶出口禁令 持续遭到违反。外国公司大量买入价格低廉的加纳生橡胶进行加工后增值出售，导致加纳错失了就业和 工业发展机会。数据显示，尽管加纳的橡胶出口收入从2012年的6900万美元增至2022年的1.31亿美元， 十年间增长了90%。但如果没有附加值，就无法充分发挥经济潜力。2024年，橡胶加工的外汇收入达 9800万美元，远低于若实现国内增值所能实现的1.6亿美元的潜在收入。 （原标题：加纳因生橡胶违规出口每年损失1亿美元） 除了加工水平不足之外，该行业还面临着包括非法采矿导致破坏橡胶种植园、走私猖獗导致国内供 应短缺、基础设施不足、土地产权不清以及可可行业竞争等多重结构性挑战。 ...