Group 1 - The national production materials market price increased by 0.1% from December 22 to 28 compared to the previous week [1] - Non-ferrous metal prices saw a slight rebound, with copper and aluminum rising by 3.1% and 0.8% respectively, while zinc remained stable [1] - Rubber prices continued to rise, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber increasing by 0.6% and 0.2% respectively [1] Group 2 - Fertilizer prices experienced a slight increase, with urea and compound fertilizer rising by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively [1] - Steel prices showed minor fluctuations, with high-speed wire and rebar priced at 3558 yuan and 3361 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively, while ordinary medium plates and hot-rolled strips decreased by 0.2% [1] - Coal prices predominantly decreased, with thermal coal and coking coal priced at 777 yuan and 1052 yuan per ton, decreasing by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively, while smokeless lump coal increased by 0.1% [1] Group 3 - Basic chemical raw material prices saw a slight decline, with polypropylene, methanol, soda ash, and sulfuric acid decreasing by 0.6%, 0.5%, 0.5%, and 0.4% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices of finished oil products slightly decreased, with 0 diesel, 95 gasoline, and 92 gasoline dropping by 1.6%, 1.3%, and 1.3% respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rubber sector experienced a decline of 0.52% on December 31, with Kexin New Source leading the drop. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3968.84, up 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13525.02, down 0.58% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The rubber sector's individual stock performance showed varied results, with Kexin New Source closing at 56.22, down 3.62%, and a total trading volume of 11.20 million shares, amounting to 636 million yuan [2]. - Other notable stocks included KQ Co., which rose by 1.51% to 14.09, and Tian Tie Technology, which increased by 1.16% to 6.13 [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The rubber sector saw a net outflow of 148 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 186 million yuan [2]. - The capital flow data indicated that major stocks like Lian Technology had a net inflow of 14.06 million yuan from institutional investors, while it faced outflows from retail and speculative investors [3].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.31」 合成橡胶市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 行情回顾：本周国内顺丁橡胶供应延续高位水平，除茂名石化与独山子石化装置停车外，其他顺 丁橡胶装置负荷处于高位水平，供应延续充足局面。山东市场顺丁橡胶现货价格区间在10600- 11300元/吨。中石化化销BR9000出厂价格在11100元/吨，中石油各销售公司BR9000出厂价格 在11100-11400元/吨。 行情展望：近期国内顺丁装置停车较少，供应延续高位，价格重心小幅抬升，市场成交集中于套 利商低价采购，贸易商谨慎挺价，但终端采购仍处于偏弱局面，生产企业库存水平提升，贸易企 业库存部分下降，主流供价上调对顺丁橡胶市场价格存在底部支撑，但现货资源充足及临近年末 产销压力影响下，生产企业库存预计维持高位，贸易企业库存预计小幅下降。需求方面，上周国 内轮胎企业灵活排产，部分企业存控产现象，半钢胎企业开工率环比小幅回升，全钢胎企业开工 率环比下降，进入季节性淡季，企业整体出货节奏偏慢，成品库存攀升，产销压力下，部分企业 存停限 ...

Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber market is experiencing a slight rebound due to improved fundamentals and capital inflows, with prices expected to stabilize in the range of 15,100 to 15,400 CNY per ton in the short term [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is showing a significant seasonal contraction, with domestic production entering a downward trend as major production areas like Yunnan and Hainan have largely ceased harvesting [2] - Domestic weekly production of natural rubber was only 5,000 tons as of December 25, a decrease of 500 tons week-on-week, indicating a further tightening of supply [2] - In the overseas market, while natural rubber is still in a high production cycle, uncertainties are increasing due to weather conditions affecting harvesting in Southeast Asia [2] - Tensions at the Thailand-Cambodia border are causing additional disruptions to supply, particularly in key rubber-producing regions [2] Demand Factors - Despite being in a seasonal low demand period, the essential demand for natural rubber remains stable, with the semi-steel tire industry operating at a capacity utilization rate of 70.36%, up 0.35 percentage points from the previous period [3] - Full-steel tire capacity utilization is at 61.69%, primarily driven by essential procurement [3] Market Sentiment - As of December 21, social inventory of natural rubber in China reached 1.182 million tons, with a weekly increase of 30,000 tons, but prices have not significantly declined, indicating a strong market sentiment [4] - The main futures contract prices have shown resilience, with the RU2605 contract reaching 15,890 CNY and 15,840 CNY on December 25 and 26, respectively, suggesting a divergence between current inventory levels and future supply-demand expectations [4] - Analysts believe that the current high inventory levels are already priced in, and the market is shifting focus to future demand recovery and potential decreases in imports [5] Substitution Effects - The long-standing substitution relationship between synthetic rubber and natural rubber is currently weakening, as the price gap between the two has narrowed due to rising production costs for synthetic rubber [6] - As of December 26, the price difference between synthetic rubber and natural rubber has decreased to 4,317 CNY, reducing the competitive advantage of synthetic rubber [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - All the energy - chemical products covered in the report, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC, are expected to show an oscillatory trend [1][2][4][5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices fluctuated downward. The WTI February contract closed down $0.13 at $57.95 per barrel, a 0.22% decline; the Brent February contract closed down $0.02 at $61.92 per barrel, a 0.03% decline; the SC2602 contract closed at 437 yuan per barrel at night, down 1.6 yuan per barrel, a 0.36% decline. As of December 30, the total number of oil and gas rigs increased by 1 to 546, the highest since December 12, but still 43 less than the same period last year, a 7.3% decrease. Indian imports of Russian crude oil in December are expected to drop to about 1.1 million barrels per day, but may increase in January. Oil prices have fallen nearly 20% this year and are expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2603 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed flat at 2473 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2603 closed down 0.23% at 2977 yuan per ton. China's first batch of low - sulfur fuel oil export tax - rebate quotas for 2026 is 8 million tons, the same as last year. The low - sulfur fuel oil market will have sufficient supply from January to February, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market has some support. The absolute prices of FU and LU may fluctuate with oil prices, and the increase in FU warehouse receipts may put additional pressure on the market [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.47% at 3038 yuan per ton. The arrival of diluted asphalt at ports is currently stable, and refinery raw material supply in January is not affected by the US - Venezuela geopolitical event. Production increased slightly at the end of the year, but the production schedule for January is low. There is still some demand in the south, while the north has more inventory demand. Asphalt prices may fluctuate with oil prices and may be stronger than crude oil and fuel oil [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed up 0.43% at 5144 yuan per ton, EG2605 closed up 0.79% at 3847 yuan per ton, and PX futures contract 603 closed up 0.63% at 7316 yuan per ton. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. A 200,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Guangxi has restarted. PX faces a game between reality and expectation, and ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate after a rebound [4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2605 rose 5 yuan per ton to 15670 yuan per ton, the NR main contract rose 25 yuan per ton to 12690 yuan per ton, and the butadiene rubber BR main contract fell 35 yuan per ton to 11565 yuan per ton. With easing precipitation in the production areas and fading downstream tire demand, rubber prices are expected to oscillate [4][5]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2182 yuan per ton. Iranian plant shutdowns will lead to a decline in January arrivals, but MTO plant loads are also decreasing. Port inventories have rebounded, and methanol is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6150 - 6300 yuan per ton. Polyolefin production will remain high, while downstream orders and starts are weakening. Polyolefins are expected to oscillate at a low level [5]. - **PVC**: On Tuesday, the PVC market prices in East China were mixed, with some prices in North China rising and those in South China stable. PVC supply remains high, domestic demand is slowing, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price, basis rate, spot price change rate, futures price change rate, basis change, and the percentile of the latest basis rate in historical data for various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on December 31, 2025 [7]. 3.3 Market News - The US EIA inventory report shows that last week, US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories all increased. As of the week of December 19, US crude oil inventories increased by 405,000 barrels to 424.822 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 707,000 barrels to 21.57 million barrels. Refinery crude oil processing volume decreased by 212,000 barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 94.6%. US crude oil production decreased by 18,000 barrels per day to 13.83 million barrels per day [10]. - Under US sanctions, Indian imports of Russian crude oil in December are expected to drop to about 1.1 million barrels per day, reaching a three - year low in 2025, but are expected to increase in January [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents historical price trends of main contracts for multiple energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025 through various charts, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [12][13][14][15][17][18][20][21][22][23][25][26][27][28][29]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the historical basis trends of main contracts for different energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [30][31][32][35][36][37][39][40][41][42]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report analyzes the historical spreads between different contracts for energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [44][45][46][47][49][50][52][53][54][55][56][57][58][59]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes historical spreads and ratios between different energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, etc. [60][61][62][63][64][65][68]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the historical production profit trends of LLDPE and PP [69][70]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Serves as the assistant director of the research institute and director of energy - chemical research. With more than ten years of research experience in the futures derivatives market, she has won many awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises [74]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyzes crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping. With in - depth industry research and many awards, she often publishes views in the media [75]. - **Di Yilin**: Focuses on natural rubber and polyester research. She has won several awards and is good at data analysis [76]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyzes methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC. With a background in energy - chemical spot - futures trading, he holds a CFA Level 3 certificate [77].

化工日报 | 2025-12-31 轮胎企业产销压力仍存 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15670元/吨，较前一日变动+5元/吨；NR主力合约12690元/吨，较前一日变动+25 元/吨；BR主力合约11565元/吨，较前一日变动-35元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15250元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14700元/吨，较前一 日变动+0元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1875美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1805 美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11500元/吨，较前一日变动+200元/吨。浙江 传化BR9000市场价11450元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年11月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量64.36万吨，环比增 加25.98%，同比增加14.69%，2025年1-11月累计进口数量587.16万吨，累计同比增加16.98%。 ANRPC最新发布的2025年11月报告预测，11月全球天胶产量料降2.6%至147.4万吨，较上月 ...

2025 年 12 月 31 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 合成橡胶基本面数据 合成橡胶：高位回落 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 （02合约） | 日盘收盘价 | （元/吨） | 11,565 | 11,600 | -35 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 121,267 | 152,140 | -30873 | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 49,563 | 59,203 | -9640 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 700,548 | 884,041 | -183493 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | -115 | -150 | 35 | | | 月差 | BR02-BR05 | | -65 | -30 | -35 | | 现货市场 | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营） | 11,000 | 11,000 | | | | | 华东顺丁 | ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-31 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 利多因素消化，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 利多因素消化，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

燃料油： 周二，上期所燃料油主力合约FU2603收平，报2473元/吨；低硫燃料油主力合约LU2603收跌0.23%，报 2977元/吨。我国2026年第一批低硫燃料油出口退税配额下发，数量为800万吨，与去年同期持平。从基 本面看，低硫燃料油市场结构维持在当前水平，高硫燃料油市场则仍有支撑。新加坡预计在未来几周迎 来稳定的低硫燃料油调油组分到货，将持续增加当地现有的库存。亚洲低硫市场预计在1-2月都将保持 供应充足。高硫供应也相对充足，不过受安装脱硫塔的船舶数量增加的推动，下游船用油销售持续走 强，亚洲高硫燃料油市场继续获得一些支撑。短期FU和LU绝对价格或跟随油价波动，上周FU仓单再度 增加，或对盘面产生额外压力。 沥青： 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 原油： 周二油价震荡回落，其中WTI 2月合约收盘下跌0.13美元至57.95美元/桶，跌幅0.22%。布伦特2月合约收 盘下跌0.02美元至61.92美元/桶，跌幅0.03%。SC2602合约夜盘收盘在437元/桶，下跌1.6元/桶，跌幅为 0.36%。受新年假期影响，美国能源服务公司贝克休斯本周提前三天发布能源企业活 ...

能源化工日报 2025-12-31 2025/12/31 原油 能源化工组 【行情资讯】 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn INE 主力原油期货收涨 0.50 元/桶，涨幅 0.11%，报 436.10 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 0.00 元/吨，跌幅 0.00%，报 2473.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 7.00 元/吨，跌幅 0.23%，报 2977.00 元/吨。 美国 EIA 周度数据出炉，美国原油商业库存累库 0.41 百万桶至 424.82 百万桶，环比累库 0.10%；SPR 补库 0.80 百万桶至 412.97 百万桶，环比补库 0.19%；汽油库存累库 2.86 百万桶 至 228.49 百万桶，环比累库 1.27%；柴油库存累库 0.20 百万桶至 118.70 百万桶，环比累库 0.17%；燃料油库存累库 0.85 百万桶至 22.99 百万桶，环比累库 3.85%；航空煤油库存累库 1.32 百万桶至 44.89 百万桶，环比累库 3.02%。 刘洁文 甲醇、 ...