1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - Palm oil: The downside space is limited, with support at the [8700] price level. The p2601 contract is expected to be mainly oscillating strongly in the medium - long term, considering the tight supply situation in Southeast Asia and biodiesel policy support. However, short - term fluctuations are significant due to trade and biodiesel news [3]. - Soybean oil: The downside space is limited, with support at the [7700] price level. The y2601 contract is expected to follow other oils in a relatively strong oscillation. The supply is expected to turn tight at the end of the fourth quarter in China, affected by factors such as the decline in soybean arrivals and uncertain Sino - US trade relations [3]. - Rapeseed oil: The downside space is limited, with support at the [9600] price level. The Ol601 contract is expected to be mainly oscillating strongly. The 2024/25 global rapeseed inventory pressure is limited, and the 2025/26 production is expected to recover, which may suppress the price. Attention should be paid to the production realization in major producing countries [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Since the holiday, BMD crude palm oil has been oscillating strongly, with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. However, on Friday, the MPOB report showed higher - than - expected inventory, and the overall oil price declined. The tariff war and the sharp drop in international crude oil are expected to lead to a short - term weakening of palm oil [13][14]. - **Supply and Demand in Malaysia**: In September 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 0.73% month - on - month, imports increased by 33.95% month - on - month, exports increased by 7.69% month - on - month, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.2% month - on - month. From October 1 - 10, the export volume increased compared with the same period in September [15]. - **Supply and Demand in Indonesia**: As of July, Indonesia's inventory remained at a historical low. The production in July was 5.6 million tons, the export volume was 3.007 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory was 2.57 million tons. The export continued to grow faster than the production, and the inventory remained at a historical low. The reference price of crude palm oil in October was set at $983.61 per ton, and the export tax remained at $124 per ton. The implementation of the B0 policy in the first half of the year was relatively good, and the government is accelerating the implementation of the B50 policy [15]. - **Indian Market**: India's palm oil imports decreased significantly in January - April, and the inventory reached a low level. From May to August, imports continued to grow, and it is expected to remain at a high level in September to support the exports of Indonesia and Malaysia. The cost - performance of international soybean oil is slightly lower than that of palm oil, but the subsequent imports are still expected to remain at a relatively high level [32]. 3.2 Soybean and Soybean Oil - **US Market**: Recently, CBOT soybean futures first rose and then fell. The supply pressure of US soybeans is emerging as they enter the harvest season, but the reduction in planting area and the increase in consumption have tightened the supply. The US EPA's biofuel policy is unclear, which has increased market uncertainty. The future weather in the main soybean - producing states in the US may affect the harvest [50][51][53]. - **South American Market**: According to the USDA's September forecast for the 2025/26 season, Brazil's soybean production will increase to 175 million tons, and Argentina's will be 48.5 million tons. Brazil's export peak has passed, and it is expected that the premium of Brazilian soybeans will remain strong. Argentina has restored the export tax on soybeans, and it is expected that the premium in South America will also remain strong [76]. - **Domestic Market**: In the short term, the supply of domestic soybeans and soybean oil is relatively loose, but it is expected to turn tight at the end of the fourth quarter. The 40th week (September 27 - October 3) of soybean oil production was 833,600 tons, and the 41st week is expected to be 257,800 tons. The trading volume has decreased significantly [109][112]. 3.3 Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - **Global Market**: In the 2024/25 season, the global rapeseed supply tightened marginally, and the carry - over inventory decreased significantly. In the 2025/26 season, the USDA expects a recovery in production, and the supply - demand contradiction is expected to be limited. The Chinese government has imposed a 75.8% deposit on Canadian rapeseed imports, and the Canadian government is trying to negotiate [85]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, but the subsequent rapeseed purchases are expected to decline, and the supply in the far - month is expected to tighten. As of October 3, the coastal rapeseed oil production was 8,200 tons, and the delivery volume was 0 tons. With the decrease in rapeseed crushing, the rapeseed oil production may decline significantly [110][112]. 3.4 Domestic Oils - **Market Performance**: After the holiday, the oils first rose and then fell, and the center of gravity remained basically unchanged. The short - term oils are expected to be weak, and the meal may perform better than the oils. In the medium - long term, palm oil and rapeseed oil are expected to be oscillating strongly, and soybean oil will follow other oils [108][109][110]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of palm oil in China is relatively loose, the supply of soybean oil is expected to turn tight at the end of the fourth quarter, and the supply of rapeseed oil is expected to tighten in the far - month. The trading volume of palm oil has increased slightly, the trading volume of soybean oil has decreased significantly, and the production of rapeseed oil may decline significantly [109][110][112].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile and weakening [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Adjusting [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 50: Volatile [4] - CSI 300: Volatile [4] - CSI 500: Downward [4] - CSI 1000: Downward [4] - 2-year Treasury bonds: Volatile [4] - 5-year Treasury bonds: Volatile [4] - 10-year Treasury bonds: Upward [4] - Gold: Strongly volatile [4] - Silver: Strongly volatile [4] - Logs: Range-bound [6] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Offset paper: Volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Widely volatile [6] - Palm oil: Widely volatile [6] - Rapeseed oil: Widely volatile [6] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and bearish [6] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and bearish [7] - Live pigs: Volatile and bullish [7] - Rubber: Volatile [7] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Volatile [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Wait-and-see [8] Core Views - The black sector is affected by tariff expectations, and the price trends of different varieties vary. The financial market is influenced by trade policies, and the bond and precious metal markets show specific trends. The light industrial and agricultural product markets are affected by supply and demand, policies, and weather. The polyester market has complex supply and demand situations and price trends [2][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Affected by Trump's tariff pressure and supply-side news, the short-term unilateral drive is not strong, and the price trend is relatively stronger than that of finished products. The key lies in steel demand after the holiday [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Tariff expectations suppress the black sector. Domestic coking coal production is expected to be lower than last year, and the demand for coke is strong. The first round of coke price increases has been implemented, and the second round has basically failed [2] - **Rebar and hot-rolled coils**: The static valuation of rebar is low, and the supply pressure is slightly high. Focus on the demand recovery in October. The high supply and continuous inventory accumulation of finished products bring pressure, and the price needs to cooperate with rapid de-stocking to stabilize [2] - **Glass**: The short-term supply and demand pattern has not improved significantly, and the inventory has increased. The real estate completion decline drags down the demand. Pay attention to the demand repair in the peak season and production capacity policies [2] - **Soda ash**: The short-term supply and demand are basically balanced. Pay attention to the marginal repair in the peak season [2] Financial Sector - **Stock index futures/options**: The stock index closed down in the previous trading day. Soft drinks and forestry sectors had capital inflows, while semiconductors and computer hardware sectors had outflows. The market risk aversion sentiment has increased, and it is recommended to reduce risk preference [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has declined, and the market trend is upward. Hold long positions in Treasury bonds [4] - **Gold and silver**: Gold is in a strongly volatile state. Its pricing mechanism is changing, and it is affected by factors such as the US debt problem, interest rates, geopolitical risks, and physical demand. Silver also shows a similar trend [4] Light Industry and Agriculture - **Logs**: The port daily shipment volume has increased, the supply pressure is not large, and the cost support has increased. It is expected to be range-bound [6] - **Pulp**: The spot market price has mixed trends, and the cost support has increased. However, the demand improvement is uncertain, and it is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6] - **Offset paper**: The spot market price is stable, the production is relatively stable, and the demand is expected to improve. It is expected to be volatile [6] - **Oils and fats**: The global trade situation is deteriorating, and the supply of oils and fats is abundant. It is expected to continue the wide-range volatile pattern [6] - **Meal products**: The global trade relationship has deteriorated, and the supply pressure of meal products is increasing. It is expected to be volatile and bearish [6] - **Live pigs**: The average transaction weight is declining, the supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [7] - **Rubber**: The supply pressure in Yunnan has decreased, and the production in Hainan is lower than expected. The demand and inventory situation are complex, and it is expected to be volatile [7] Polyester Industry - **PX**: The supply and demand are increasing, and the price follows the oil price [8] - **PTA**: The supply and demand have marginally improved, but the terminal orders are weaker than expected. The price follows the cost [8] - **MEG**: The port inventory has increased, the supply pressure has increased, and the short-term cost fluctuates greatly [8] - **PR**: The post-holiday replenishment is weak, and the market may be volatile and weak [8] - **PF**: The cost support is still weak, but the downstream start-up is stable. It is expected to be volatile and sorted [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report Palm Oil - International Market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a high - level correction. MPOB inventory at 236 million tons exceeded the market estimate of 215 million tons, but the export growth in the first 10 days supported the market. Short - term focus is on whether it can stop falling and stabilize between 4,500 - 4,550 ringgit. If it can stand above 4,500 ringgit, there's a chance to strengthen; otherwise, it may fall to 4,350 ringgit [3]. - Domestic Market: Dalian palm oil futures are also in a correction. Affected by Malaysian palm oil, there's pressure to break below the 40 - day moving average and fill the gap, with a possible drop to 9,000 yuan. The overall trend depends on Malaysian palm oil. As domestic temperatures drop after the National Day holiday, palm oil consumption will weaken, keeping the market in a near - strong and far - weak pattern [3]. Soybean Oil - After the National Day holiday, traders replenished stocks. As replenishment ends, demand will weaken. In the fourth quarter, soybean imports are estimated at 28 - 29 million tons, and factories will maintain high operating rates, dragging down the futures market. Before the Sino - US summit, CBOT soybeans are range - bound, having limited impact on domestic oils. The January contract of Dalian soybean oil faces pressure at 8,400 yuan, is expected to fluctuate around 8,300 yuan, and may fall back to 8,000 yuan due to sufficient supply [4]. Bean Meal - The theoretical spread between bean meal and rapeseed meal has improved, but without a clear Sino - US trade negotiation result, Dalian bean meal lacks a continuous driving force and is expected to trade between 2,900 - 2,950 yuan/ton in the short term. Spot prices of oil mills decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Supply - side: After the holiday, oil mills resumed production, and inventories in East and South China are accumulating. Demand - side: Post - holiday prices of poultry and pigs fell, and feed enterprises are digesting high - cost inventories. The short - term market shows weak supply and demand, with spot prices expected to range from 2,900 - 3,100 yuan/ton [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Oil and Fat Monthly and Inter - Variety Spreads - Provided data on spreads such as P 1 - 5, P 5 - 9, Y - P 01, etc., including prices and daily changes [5]. Palm Oil Spot and Futures Daily Prices - Showed the latest prices and price changes of palm oil contracts (01, 05, 09), BMD palm oil, and spot prices in Guangzhou, as well as palm oil basis and other data [8]. Domestic First - Grade Soybean - 24 - Degree Palm Oil Spread - No specific data summary provided, only mentioned the topic and source [11]. Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Daily Prices - Presented the latest prices and price changes of soybean oil contracts (01, 05, 09), CBOT soybean oil, and spot prices in Shandong, as well as soybean oil basis and other data [14]. POGO Spread and Related Data - Provided information on POGO spread and the weekly average spread between US biodiesel and diesel, along with their sources [16]. Oilseed Futures Prices - Gave the closing prices, daily changes, and price change rates of bean meal (01, 05, 09), rapeseed meal (01, 05, 09), CBOT soybeans, and the offshore RMB [19]. Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - Included data on spreads such as M01 - 05, M05 - 09, RM01 - 05, etc., as well as spot prices and basis of bean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions, and the spread between bean meal and rapeseed meal [20][22]. International Soybean Crushing Profit - Showed the crushing profit of international soybeans and imported rapeseed from overseas, along with their sources [31].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: International market - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures continue to rise with short - term pressure near previous highs, waiting for Wednesday's MPOB report. Inventory estimates for end - September range from 2.05 to 2.34 million tons. Depending on the report and export data, it will choose a new direction. Domestic market - Dalian palm oil futures had a gap - up opening after the holiday, with a chance to continue rising. It should be watched whether it can break through previous highs. If not, there is a risk of a pull - back and filling the gap. The view of near - term strength and long - term weakness is maintained [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: After the long holiday, traders need to replenish stocks, which boosts the Dalian soybean oil market. However, domestic soybean oil supply is abundant, and imports from October to December are large. Factory inventories are unlikely to decrease rapidly, and some factories are exporting due to potential over - stock. The upside of Dalian soybean oil is limited. The January contract is near the daily middle - rail at 8,310 yuan. If it fails to break through, it may fall; if it breaks through, the upper target is the daily upper - rail at 8,520 yuan, but continuous rise is unlikely [4]. - **Bean Meal**: The Dalian bean meal 01 contract is expected to oscillate between 2,930 - 2,960 yuan, affected by Sino - US trade negotiation expectations and ample supply. Spot prices are in the 2,900 - 3,100 yuan/ton range. After the holiday, oil mills resume production, but feed enterprises' high inventory and slow inventory reduction of oil mills limit the spot price rebound [18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Oil Price and Spread - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil 01 is at 9,570 yuan/ton with a 3.71% increase; 05 is at 9,360 yuan/ton with a 3.59% increase; 09 is at 8,916 yuan/ton with a 3.29% increase. BMD palm oil is at 4,571 ringgit/ton with a 0.57% increase. The POGO spread is at 513.167 dollars/ton with a decrease of 1.168 dollars/ton [7][8]. - **Soybean Oil**: Soybean oil 01 is at 8,332 yuan/ton with a 0.38% increase; 05 is at 8,074 yuan/ton with a 0.62% increase; 09 is at 8,006 yuan/ton with a 0.56% increase. CBOT soybean oil is at 51.34 cents/pound with a 1.74% increase. The domestic first - grade soybean - 24 - degree palm oil spread is - 820 yuan/ton with a decrease of 140 yuan/ton [14]. - **Inter - month and Inter - variety Spreads**: For palm oil, P 1 - 5 is 192 yuan/ton with an 18 - yuan increase; P 5 - 9 is 404 yuan/ton with a 32 - yuan increase; P 9 - 1 is - 596 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan decrease. For soybean oil, Y 1 - 5 is 244 yuan/ton with no change; Y 5 - 9 is 68 yuan/ton with no change; Y 9 - 1 is - 312 yuan/ton with no change. Y - P spreads and Y/M, OI/RM spreads are also provided [5]. 3.2. Oilseed Futures Price - **Bean Meal**: Bean meal 01 closes at 2,939 with an 11 - point increase and a 0.38% rise; 05 closes at 2,755 with a 17 - point increase and a 0.62% rise; 09 closes at 2,863 with a 16 - point increase and a 0.56% rise [19]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Rapeseed meal 01 closes at 2,435 with a 14 - point increase and a 0.58% rise; 05 closes at 2,334 with a 17 - point increase and a 0.73% rise; 09 closes at 2,415 with a 12 - point increase and a 0.5% rise [19]. - **CBOT Yellow Soybean**: Closes at 1,029.75 with no change [19]. - **Offshore RMB**: Closes at 7.1527 with a 0.0096 increase and a 0.13% rise [19]. 3.3. Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - **Bean Meal Spreads**: M01 - 05 is 184 with a 6 - point decrease; M05 - 09 is - 108 with a 1 - point increase; M09 - 01 is - 76 with a 5 - point increase [20][22]. - **Rapeseed Meal Spreads**: RM01 - 05 is 101 with a 3 - point decrease; RM05 - 09 is - 81 with a 5 - point increase; RM09 - 01 is - 20 with a 2 - point decrease [20][22]. - **Spot Spreads**: The spot spread between bean meal and rapeseed meal is 410 with a 10 - point increase; the futures spread is 504 with a 3 - point decrease [22].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for oilseeds showed mixed results, with palm oil futures reaching a three-week high, up nearly 4% to 9452.00 CNY/ton [1] - Indonesia plans to implement a mandatory B50 biodiesel policy by 2026 to reduce gasoline imports, currently enforcing a B40 biodiesel plan [1] - Malaysia's palm oil production for September is estimated to decrease by 2.35%, with total production expected to be 1.81 million tons [1] Group 2 - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association reported a potential 2.5% decrease in palm oil inventory for September compared to August, estimated at 2.15 million tons [1] - Positive factors for palm oil prices include reduced production in major producing countries and the rectification of illegal plantations in Indonesia, while domestic consumption recovery and India's lower-than-expected stockpiling may suppress price rebounds [2] - Short-term expectations indicate a strong fluctuation in palm oil prices, with attention on the upcoming supply and demand data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that in the 2025/26 period, the global oilseed supply will remain relatively loose, mainly due to the recovery of rapeseed and sunflower seed production and a slight increase in soybean production. The prices of oils and protein meals are expected to be weak in the early fourth - quarter, but may rise towards the end of the year if the La Nina weather is strong. [5][6][8] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a bearish view on oils and protein meals in the short - term, look for opportunities to go long on oils at the end of the year in the medium - term, and consider long - short spread trading strategies such as going long on rapeseed oil and short on palm oil, and going long on the oil - meal ratio in the medium - to long - term. [8] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Viewpoint Strategy - **Supply**: The global oilseed supply in 2025/26 will be relatively loose. Rapeseed and sunflower seed production will recover, and soybean production will slightly increase. In the US, soybean planting area decreases but with high yield; in Argentina, the planting area drops and there is a high probability of La Nina, which may lead to significant production reduction; in Brazil, the planting area increases, expected to offset the reduction from the US and Argentina. In China, soybean imports are large, palm oil imports are low, and rapeseed inventory in oil mills is at a low level. [6] - **Demand**: Global vegetable oil consumption increases annually, with a 2.5% growth in edible consumption and a 5.13% increase in industrial consumption in 2025/26. India's edible demand and the bio - fuel policies of Indonesia, the US, and Brazil are key factors. Protein meal demand is expected to decline due to the reduction of sow inventory and other factors. [7] - **Outlook and Strategies**: Oils and protein meals are expected to be weak in the early fourth - quarter. If La Nina is strong at the end of the year, oils may rise. Short - term: bearish on oils and protein meals; Medium - term: look for long - oil opportunities at the end of the year; Arbitrage: long rapeseed oil and short palm oil, long oil - meal ratio. [8] 3.2 Oil and Oilseed Market Review - **Oil Single - sided Review**: In the first three quarters of 2025, oils showed a wave - like upward trend. They were affected by various factors such as US tariff policies, bio - fuel policies, and geopolitical conflicts. [11][14][15] - **Oil Spread Review**: The spreads between different oils fluctuated throughout the year. Palm oil was strong in some periods, while rapeseed oil was relatively resistant in others, leading to changes in spreads. [19][20] - **Protein Meal Single - sided Review**: Protein meal prices were affected by factors such as USDA reports, tariff policies, and soybean import costs. They showed an overall volatile trend. [23] - **Protein Meal Spread Review**: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was mainly affected by tariff policies and market supply - demand changes, with significant fluctuations in some periods. [27] 3.3 Global Oil and Oilseed Supply - Demand Analysis - **Global Oilseed Supply**: In 2025/26, global oilseed production, consumption, and ending inventory all increase, indicating a relatively loose supply. [31] - **Global Vegetable Oil Supply - Demand**: In 2025/26, global vegetable oil supply and demand both increase, but demand growth is greater than supply, and ending inventory slightly decreases. [32] - **Global Protein Meal Supply - Demand**: In 2025/26, global protein meal supply and demand both increase, with ending inventory slightly rising, showing a loose supply. [37] - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand**: In 2025/26, global soybean supply is relatively loose. US soybean production decreases, while Brazil's production increases. Argentina's production may be affected by La Nina. [40] - **Palm Oil Supply - Demand**: In 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production is similar to last year, but exports are weak and inventory is high. Indonesia's palm oil production recovers, exports increase, and inventory remains low. [90][94][98] - **Rapeseed and Sunflower Seed Supply - Demand**: In 2025/26, global rapeseed production recovers and inventory rises; global sunflower seed production increases and inventory slightly increases. [109][134] - **Oil Demand**: Global vegetable oil industrial consumption growth is expected to pick up in 2025/26. India's import demand is large, while the US bio - diesel production and consumption are low. Indonesia's bio - diesel demand increases, and Brazil's soybean oil demand rises due to the increase in blending ratio. [142][147][167] 3.4 Domestic Oil and Oilseed Supply - Demand Analysis - **Soybean Imports**: In 2025, from January to August, soybean imports increased by 4% year - on - year, mainly from South America. The proportion of US soybean imports decreased. [171] - **Soybean Inventory**: Oil mill soybean inventory is expected to be higher than the same period in previous years from October to December. [175] - **Soybean Import Cost and Profit**: As of September 29, 2025, the import cost and profit of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans vary. The purchase of Argentine soybeans is active due to good profit. [179] - **Oil Mill Operation Rate**: Since May, the oil mill operation rate has been high, and the soybean crushing volume in the first 38 weeks of 2025 increased by 5.06% year - on - year. [183] - **Palm Oil Import**: As of September 26, palm oil import losses are heavy, and the import volume is low. [190][192]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - Shanghai 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [4] - 2 - year Treasury bonds: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year Treasury bonds: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year Treasury bonds: Rebound [4] - Gold: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Logs: Range oscillation [6] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Palm oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Bean meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Soybean No.2: Oscillation with a downward bias [7] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a slightly upward bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillation [9] - PX: Wait - and - see [9] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: Wait - and - see [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The trading logic of iron ore has increased uncertainty, with short - term support under supply - side interference. The follow - up focus is on the actual impact on the supply side and October steel demand [2]. - In October, the supply of coking coal in China is expected to run stably, with limited increase. Coke supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and its trend follows coking coal. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy [2]. - For rebar, the futures price has a low static valuation. The supply side may shrink, and the focus is on the demand recovery in October. The price needs to see rapid post - festival inventory reduction to stabilize [2]. - The glass market has short - term support from the replenishment market, but the demand is difficult to improve fundamentally. The supply - demand is basically balanced, and the follow - up should pay attention to production and policy changes [2]. - The stock index market is volatile, with an optimistic upward outlook. Stock index long positions should maintain the current position, while Treasury bond long positions should be held lightly [4]. - The logic for the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed. It is expected to show strong - biased oscillation, affected by the Fed's interest - rate policy and geopolitical risks [4][6]. - Logs are expected to oscillate in a range, with supply - side pressure not significant and an increase in daily outbound volume [6]. - Pulp prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom, affected by cost support and demand factors [6]. - The oil and fat market continues the range - oscillation pattern, with significant differentiation among varieties. Attention should be paid to Brazilian soybean sowing and Malaysian palm oil production and sales [6]. - Bean meal prices are expected to move downward in the short term, affected by supply and demand factors such as new soybean listings and changes in Chinese demand [6][7]. - Live pig prices are expected to oscillate slightly downward in the short term, with sufficient supply and weak downstream demand [7]. - Natural rubber prices may show wide - range oscillation, affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors [9]. - The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF are mainly affected by cost, supply, and demand factors, with different trends [9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: During the long holiday, the Singapore Exchange iron ore swaps rose slightly. There are new concerns about supply, and the short - term supply - side interference provides support. The follow - up core is steel demand in October [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: In October, domestic coking coal supply is expected to be stable, with production lower than last year. Coke's first - round price increase was implemented, and the second - round basically failed. Coke supply - demand contradiction is not large, and it follows coking coal [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: During the long holiday, Tangshan billet prices were stable. Rebar futures have a low valuation, and the supply side may shrink. The focus is on demand recovery in October, and the price needs rapid post - festival de - stocking [2]. - **Glass**: Market sentiment was boosted by news, and prices rose. Supply was stable last week, and there was short - term support from replenishment. However, long - term demand is suppressed by the real estate adjustment [2]. - **Soda ash**: Although the report mentions it in the context, there is no specific in - depth analysis other than the overall "oscillation" rating [2]. Financial and Precious Metals - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The market is volatile. The overall upward outlook is optimistic, and stock index long positions should maintain the current position [4]. - **Treasury bonds**: Market interest rates are volatile, and Treasury bond trends are weak. Treasury bond long positions should be held lightly [4]. - **Gold and Silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing. The logic for the rise has not reversed, and it is expected to show strong - biased oscillation, affected by the Fed's policy and geopolitical risks [4][6]. Light Industry - **Logs**: Port daily shipment volume increased, and supply is expected to be tight. The cost support is enhanced, and it is expected to oscillate in a range [6]. - **Pulp**: Spot prices fluctuated. Cost support is enhanced, but demand improvement is uncertain. It is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - **Double - offset paper**: The spot price is stable. Production is relatively stable, and demand is expected to improve, but prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Oil and Fats - **Soybean oil, Palm oil, Rapeseed oil**: The oil and fat market shows a wide - range oscillation pattern. There are differences among varieties, affected by factors such as Argentine exports, biodiesel, and seasonal production [6]. - **Bean meal, Rapeseed meal**: Although there is some support from US domestic demand, new soybean listings and Brazilian production potential bring supply pressure. Prices are expected to move downward [6][7]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight is declining, and supply is sufficient. Downstream demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate slightly downward [7]. Soft Commodities and Polyester - **Rubber**: Supply - side pressure in Yunnan has decreased, while Hainan's output is lower than expected. Demand has improved slightly, and inventory is decreasing. Prices may show wide - range oscillation [9]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: These products are mainly affected by cost, supply, and demand factors. Their prices show different trends such as oscillation, wait - and - see, etc. [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main focus in the fourth quarter remains on the US biofuel policy and China-US/China-Canada relations, with policy impacts far outweighing fundamentals. After policies are gradually implemented, long opportunities mainly in palm oil are favored [5]. - The US is the biggest variable in the international oil market in the fourth quarter. The biofuel policy, especially the blending targets for 2026 - 27, as well as the redistribution plan for small refineries and the RINs coefficient for imported raw materials, will directly affect US soybean oil demand and the international oil price center [101]. - Palm oil will be influenced by US soybean oil in the fourth quarter, and it has its own drivers. The supply side may face early - onset production cuts and potential extreme rainfall due to La Nina, while the demand side focuses on Indonesia's B40 plan and potential B50 policies [102]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Third - Quarter Market Review - Internationally, Malaysian palm oil (MPO) outperformed US soybean oil in the third quarter. US soybean oil prices fluctuated around policy expectations and market rumors, and dropped below 50 cents/pound at the end of September. MPO remained at a high level supported by supply - demand patterns and US soybean oil prices [11]. - Domestically, the three major oils showed an upward trend with significant differences in strength. Palm oil followed the international market, while soybean and rapeseed oils were more affected by policies. Palm oil had a supply - demand weak situation, soybean oil had a strong de - stocking expectation but was still accumulating inventory, and rapeseed oil had a slow de - stocking speed due to high inventory and weak consumption [14]. 3.2 International Market Outlook 3.2.1 North and South America - **US**: - The planting and harvested areas of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season decreased significantly. Although the current yield per acre is ideal, there is still a possibility of a decline due to insufficient rainfall [19]. - The biofuel policy is beneficial to US soybean crushing demand, but the room for further significant increases in crushing is limited. The proportion of soybean oil in biofuel raw materials has rebounded, and the 45Z subsidy and increased RVO obligations from 2026 will further boost soybean oil demand [22][25]. - There is a large divergence in the market regarding the re - allocation of small refinery exemptions. EPA's proposed re - allocation has caused dissatisfaction among refineries [38]. - After the signing of the Big and Beautiful Act, the 45Z clean fuel tax credit has become law, which will lead to a substitution of a large part of UCO and tallow demand by North - American sourced soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and corn oil [42]. - If the EPA's proposed blending targets are met, there will be a supply gap in US soybean oil in 2026, which can only be filled by increasing imports. However, due to policy uncertainties, significant growth in soybean oil consumption in the fourth quarter is unlikely [44]. - **Canada**: - The final production forecast of Canadian rapeseed in the 2025/26 season is 20.1 million tons. China's anti - dumping tax on Canadian rapeseed is negative for its price, but the impact will be mitigated by expanded domestic crushing capacity and alternative export markets. Domestic crushing is expected to increase slightly, while exports will decline to 7 million tons [47]. - The price difference between European and Canadian rapeseed makes the EU have an incentive to import Canadian rapeseed. The improvement in domestic rapeseed crushing margins and the support for biofuel development offset the impact of reduced Chinese purchases [51]. 3.2.2 Asia - **Malaysian Palm Oil (MPO)**: - As of the third quarter, MPO had sufficient inventory, but production cuts may start earlier in September due to weather conditions. In the fourth quarter, the probability of La Nina increases, and there is a risk of floods and over - expected production cuts [53][70]. - MPO's domestic demand is expected to remain high in the fourth quarter, mainly due to potential CPO exports as POME to the EU and the support of biodiesel consumption [59]. - In terms of demand, MPO exports may recover slightly in the fourth quarter, with a peak in October. If US soybean oil can support the global soybean oil price center, palm oil may still be the preferred choice for countries like India [73]. - The pressure on MPO to accumulate inventory has passed, and it is expected to start de - stocking in September - October and accelerate the process in the fourth quarter [76]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil (IPO)**: - IPO production has recovered well this year, but the potential impact of the government's crackdown on illegal plantations remains. The transfer of plantation management may lead to supply uncertainties [79]. - It is difficult to achieve both high exports and high inventory in Indonesia. Domestic demand is more rigid, and the B40 plan needs to catch up in the fourth quarter. The inventory is expected to remain at around 2 million tons [83]. - The biodiesel industry in Indonesia is suffering serious losses, but it has little impact on actual blending. As of July 16, 2025, the B40 plan completion rate was about 47.51%. To complete the plan, there is still a large amount of remaining allocation and palm oil consumption required [90][91]. - **India**: - Before the Diwali festival, India's vegetable oil inventory is still low. In August, palm oil imports increased significantly, while soybean oil imports decreased. The total edible oil imports reached a 13 - month high [94]. - After replenishing inventory from June - August, India still has a need to continue purchasing and accumulating inventory. In the fourth quarter, India is expected to mainly purchase palm oil and South American soybean oil, with palm oil imports showing a trend of high in the early part and low in the late part [97][100]. 3.3 Domestic Market Outlook - **Palm Oil**: - In the fourth quarter, domestic palm oil is expected to maintain a supply - demand weak situation, following the international market. The narrowing import profit margin has led to an increase in purchases, and the inventory has reached a relatively high level, which is expected to continue to accumulate slowly [104][106]. - **Soybean Oil**: - In the third quarter, domestic soybean oil inventory accumulated rapidly due to a large amount of soybean arrivals and weak consumption. In the fourth quarter, it is expected to gradually de - stock, but inventory may still accumulate until the middle and late fourth quarter and then turn to de - stocking. Although exports have increased significantly, the possibility of large - scale exports continuing is low after India's备货 ends [111][134]. - If there is no reconciliation between China and the US and no purchase of US soybeans, there may be a shortage of soybean oil in the first quarter of next year [117]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: - Currently, domestic rapeseed oil inventory is extremely high, especially after the anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed. The import of rapeseed has decreased significantly, and the oil mill's rapeseed intake has shrunk year - on - year. The开机 rate is expected to continue to decline in the fourth quarter [120][125]. - The high price of rapeseed oil has led to low consumption, and it has been mostly replaced by soybean oil. Near the Double Festival, demand is expected to improve slightly [128]. - Russia has become the main source of China's rapeseed oil imports. Although imports can supplement the short - term supply, they cannot fully make up for the long - term gap caused by the lack of Canadian rapeseed [131]. 3.4 Strategies and Summary - The core is the US biofuel policy, which affects the global oil price center. Before the policy is determined, the market is expected to fluctuate within the range of 50 - 60 cents/pound [137]. - **Palm Oil**: - In the fourth quarter, palm oil is driven by supply and biodiesel. It is expected that Indonesia's B40 plan can be successfully completed, and domestic demand will increase. After the US biofuel policy is settled, palm oil prices are expected to rise. The recommended strategies are to go long on the palm oil 01 contract, conduct 1 - 5 positive spreads, and shrink the soybean - palm oil 01 contract price difference [137]. - **Soybean Oil**: - The current situation of the soybean oil market is weak, and it is difficult to see de - stocking in the short term. The inventory pressure may ease in the second half of the fourth quarter, but supply shortages are unlikely to occur. The recommended strategy is to shrink the soybean - palm oil 01 contract price difference [137]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: - The spot supply of rapeseed oil is relatively sufficient, but the supply gap of Canadian rapeseed in the fourth quarter is highly certain, and the market sentiment for going long is better than that of soybean oil. The recommended strategies are to go long on the rapeseed oil 01 contract and conduct 1 - 5 positive spreads [137].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report anticipates a differentiated trend in the oil and fat market and suggests waiting for opportunities for supply - demand resonance. It provides investment advice on unilateral trading, basis trading, inter - month arbitrage, and cross - variety spread trading for different types of oils [1][2]. - Palm oil is expected to be short - term volatile and long - term bullish; soybean oil is short - term bearish and medium - term neutral; rapeseed oil shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern with a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In Q3 2025, the futures prices of the three major domestic oils showed differentiation. Palm oil prices were volatile from July to September, affected by Indonesia's policies and Malaysia's inventory and demand. Soybean oil prices were range - bound due to factors like US soybean production and potential biodiesel demand. Rapeseed oil prices strengthened due to supply shortages and inventory depletion [9]. 3.2 Global Oil and Fat Supply - Demand Overview 3.2.1 Global Oilseeds - In the 2025/26 season, global oilseeds are expected to be in a tighter situation. The ending inventory is estimated to be 143.08 million tons, with a stock - to - consumption ratio of 16.1%, down 0.13 percentage points year - on - year. Demand growth exceeds inventory growth [12][13]. 3.2.2 Global Oils and Fats - The global oil and fat market is becoming increasingly tight, mainly driven by the growing demand for biodiesel. Production is expected to reach 234.69 million tons in 2025/26, up 2.47% year - on - year, while demand is expected to reach 229.28 million tons, up 3.04% [14]. 3.3 Palm Oil Origin Situation 3.3.1 Malaysia - The traditional palm oil production reduction season in Malaysia is approaching in Q4, and there may be an early reduction in September due to abnormal precipitation and floods. Exports in September are expected to increase before the Indian Festival of Lights, and inventory is expected to decline slightly [17][21]. 3.3.2 Indonesia - In 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production is expected to increase, with cumulative production from January to July reaching 33.496 million tons, up 3.35 million tons year - on - year. Domestic consumption is increasing due to the implementation of B40, and exports have not decreased as expected [25][30]. 3.4 Soybean Origin Situation 3.4.1 Brazil - In the 2024/25 season, Brazil's soybean production is estimated to be 171.47 million tons, up 13.3% year - on - year. Exports are expected to be 106.65 million tons, up 8% year - on - year. The implementation of B15 in 2025 will increase the demand for soybean oil. There is a high probability of a La Nina event in winter 2025, which may affect new - crop yields [35][38]. 3.4.2 United States - In the 2025/26 season, the US soybean planting area is estimated to be 81.1 million acres, down about 7% year - on - year. As of September 21, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate was 61%. The total production is estimated to be 4.301 billion bushels. The new RVO proposed by the EPA will increase the demand for vegetable oils [40][55]. 3.5 Rapeseed Origin Situation 3.5.1 Canada - In the 2025/26 season, Canada's rapeseed planting area is expected to decrease by 2.0% year - on - year, but production is expected to increase by 4.1% due to higher yields. Exports have been poor due to China's anti - dumping measures [58][64]. 3.6 Major Consumer Countries' Situation 3.6.1 India - In August 2025, India's imports of palm oil, sunflower oil, and rapeseed oil reached a peak due to pre - festival stocking. In September, imports decreased slightly but remained at a high level. After the Festival of Lights, consumption will enter a seasonal off - season [69][70]. 3.6.2 China - For palm oil, imports are expected to weaken in Q4, and inventory is expected to remain around 500,000 tons from October to November. For soybean oil, imports are affected by Sino - US trade frictions, and supply is increasing. For rapeseed oil, production is affected by raw material shortages, and inventory is expected to decline rapidly [73][90]. 3.7 Spread Situation 3.7.1 Basis - Palm oil basis is expected to be weak in Q4; soybean oil basis is expected to oscillate weakly; rapeseed oil basis is expected to strengthen [93]. 3.7.2 Inter - month Spread - For the 1 - 5 spread in Q4, palm oil has a positive arbitrage logic, soybean oil has a reverse arbitrage logic, and rapeseed oil has a positive arbitrage logic [100]. 3.7.3 Cross - Variety Spread - In Q4, it is recommended to go long on palm oil or rapeseed oil and short on soybean oil [102].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For palm oil, the European demand support may not end, but the demand side is hard to provide further stimulus. The combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia will accumulate until October and then gradually decline. It's hard to say that September is the last correction window, and the market may fluctuate until the end of the year. Future price movements depend on domestic macro - stories and production [3][5][7] - For soybean oil, before the policy is implemented, US soybean oil will mainly fluctuate in the range of 50 - 56 cents/pound. It may seek exports in the fourth quarter and its price will mainly follow crude oil, diesel crack spreads, and South American soybean oil prices. Domestic soybean oil lacks independent drivers and will follow the oil and fat sector [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Last Week's View and Logic - Palm oil: Argentina announced zero - tariff exports of oil and meal, causing the oil and fat sector to plunge on Tuesday. The palm oil 01 contract fell 1.11% last week [2] - Soybean oil: After the plunge on Tuesday, the sector rebounded slowly. The US soybean main contract fell 1.17% and the soybean oil 01 contract fell 2.09% last week [2] 2. This Week's View and Logic Palm oil - Supply side: In September, rainfall may lead to flat or decreased production in Malaysia, with an estimated output of 180 - 185 million tons. Indonesia's annual production increase is at least 5.5 million tons. Although the inventory pressure is not fully released, the current price may have factored in Indonesia's price - cut attitude [3] - Demand side: In the consumer market, the import profit of Indian soybean oil and sunflower oil is better than that of CPO, and the availability of soybean oil in India has increased. The possibility of the EUDR delay has increased, and the demand side lacks stimulus [3] - Inventory: The inventory increase in Malaysia from July to September may be extremely slow. Indonesia's inventory bottomed out in August. The combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia will accumulate until October and then gradually decline [3] Soybean oil - Policy: The policy optimism of US soybean oil was fully reflected in June. The final release of RVO may be delayed. Before the policy is implemented, US soybean oil will mainly fluctuate in the range of 50 - 56 cents/pound [6] - Market: US soybean oil may seek exports in the fourth quarter, and its price will mainly follow crude oil, diesel crack spreads, and South American soybean oil prices. Domestic soybean oil lacks independent drivers and will follow the oil and fat sector [6][7] 3. Basic Market Data of Futures - Palm oil main continuous contract: Opened at 9,322 yuan/ton, closed at 9,236 yuan/ton, down 1.11% [9] - Soybean oil main continuous contract: Opened at 8,320 yuan/ton, closed at 8,162 yuan/ton, down 2.09% [9] 4. Core Fundamental Data of Oils and Fats - Production: Malaysia's palm oil production in September is expected to be flat or slightly decreased compared to the previous month [11] - Inventory: Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September is expected to increase slightly. Indonesia's inventory is expected to recover to last year's level after the second quarter [11][13] - Export: ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 25 were 1.288462 million tons, a 12.9% increase compared to the same period last month [14] - Price difference: The price difference between Indian soybean oil and palm oil has weakened, and the import profit of palm oil is significantly lower than that of soybean and sunflower oil [17]