Report Information - Report Title: Oil and Oilseed Industry Daily Report - Report Date: May 14, 2025 - Report Author: Xu Liang - Reviewer: Tang Yun Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views Fats and Oils - Palm oil: The estimated production in the producing areas is expected to increase month-on-month, and the approaching seasonal production increase adds to the supply expectation. Although the domestic port inventory is currently at a low level, as the origin quotation weakens, subsequent vessel purchases are gradually emerging. On the consumption side, since the current soybean-palm oil price spread is still inverted, incremental consumption is not given, and the inventory is expected to increase and needs to find consumption by further narrowing the soybean-palm oil price spread [3]. - Soybean oil: On the supply side, as the purchased vessels arrive at the port, the pressure is approaching, and the expected oil mill压榨 is expected to increase accordingly. However, on the consumption side, since there is no incremental consumption to absorb the supply, the inventory is expected to enter an accumulation cycle. Subsequently, under the expectation of a double increase in the supply of palm oil and soybean oil, the soybean-palm oil price spread may be repaired in the far month to compete for market share in the consumer market [3]. - Rapeseed oil: Recently, due to the expected improvement in China-Canada relations, the premium of the market's policy expectation trading has been hit. On the actual supply side, as the previously purchased rapeseed has now arrived at the port, the coastal rapeseed inventory is gradually decreasing. The current supply of rapeseed oil is at a stage peak, and subsequently, with the obvious limitation of new supply, the expected marginal depletion rate is expected to accelerate from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. On the consumption side, due to the policy premium of rapeseed oil, the rapeseed-soybean oil price spread has always been in a range unfavorable for rapeseed oil consumption, suppressing consumption. The consumption of rapeseed oil also remains at the level of rigid demand. Currently, there is high inventory pressure, but the policy uncertainty provides support for the far month [3]. Oilseeds - After the China-US talks, there may be opportunities for China to purchase soybeans for import in the fourth quarter. However, from the current crushing profit situation, the far-month crushing profit under the retained tariffs on US soybeans is still negative, and the progress of vessel purchases is expected to be slow. Moreover, this time, the trade agreement between the two sides was not involved, and it is expected to be mainly emotional trading in the short term. In terms of arrivals, there are currently 12.5 million tons in May and 10.5 million tons in June. Overall, the near-month supply is still relatively abundant [15]. - For domestic soybean meal, the current soybean inventory at ports and oil mills continues to rise, and as the operating rate gradually recovers, coupled with the state reserve auction, the supply in some areas has gradually recovered. The national soybean meal inventory has bottomed out and rebounded, and the spot price has been continuously lowered. From the demand side, oil mills are gradually starting up to realize profits, and downstream customers have basically completed their inventory preparations. Subsequently, it is expected that they will pick up goods at a rigid demand replenishment pace, and the physical inventory will continue to remain at a low level [15]. - On the rapeseed meal side, the rapeseed converted into rapeseed meal at the spot end plus the rapeseed meal inventory in East and South China is still relatively high. Although it has gradually entered the aquatic product inventory preparation month, the inventory depletion rate is still difficult. The registration of rapeseed meal delivery month warehouse receipts has reached a historical peak. On the one hand, the low price of soybean meal is constantly squeezing the demand for rapeseed meal, and it is more appropriate to register warehouse receipts for delivery under the background of a negative spot basis. On the other hand, due to the previous expansion of the number of rapeseed meal delivery factories by the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the delivery month positions and delivery orders on the futures market have increased. Last Friday, an announcement on the customs import management measures for rapeseed meal was released, indicating that the better choice for subsequent imported rapeseed is to process it in the bonded area and then re-export it. It is also more appropriate to re-export imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil. Coupled with the uncertainty of China-Canada relations in the future, the long-term expectations for the far month are still relatively strong [15]. Summary by Directory Fats and Oils Price Differences between Months and Varieties - P 1-5: -262 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan; P 5-9: 266 yuan/ton, down 104 yuan; P 9-1: -4 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; Y-P 01: -270 yuan/ton, down 98 yuan; Y-P 05: -420 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan; Y-P 09: -270 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan; Y/M 01: 2.6678, up 0.48%; Y/M 05: 2.9105, up 0.51%; Y/M 09: 2.7159, up 0.59%; OI 1-5: -136 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan; OI 5-9: -41 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan; OI 9-1: 177 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan; OI/RM 01: 4.0056, up 0.27%; OI/RM 05: 3.8895, down 0.28%; OI/RM 09: 3.7617, down 0.2% [4] Palm Oil Spot and Futures Daily Prices - Palm oil 01: 8188 yuan/ton, up 2.74%; Palm oil 05: 8450 yuan/ton, up 1.51%; Palm oil 09: 8184 yuan/ton, up 2.89%; BMD palm oil main contract: 3951 ringgit/ton, up 1.49%; 24-degree palm oil in Guangzhou: 8690 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; 24-degree basis in Guangzhou: 506 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; POGO: 409.539 US dollars/ton, down 1.168 US dollars; International soybean oil-palm oil: 68.52 US dollars/ton, up 54.23 US dollars [7] Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Daily Prices - Soybean oil 01: 7918 yuan/ton, up 1.06%; Soybean oil 05: 8030 yuan/ton, up 0.47%; Soybean oil 09: 7914 yuan/ton, up 0.97%; CBOT soybean oil main contract: 51.65 US cents/pound, up 3.65%; Shandong first-grade soybean oil spot: 8100 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; Shandong first-grade soybean oil basis: 186 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan; BOHO (weekly): 57.847 US dollars/barrel, down 9.8182 US dollars; Domestic first-grade soybean oil - 24-degree palm oil: -460 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [12] Oilseeds Futures Prices - Soybean meal 01: 2968 yuan, up 31 yuan, up 1.06%; Soybean meal 05: 2759 yuan, up 13 yuan, up 0.47%; Soybean meal 09: 2914 yuan, up 28 yuan, up 0.97%; Rapeseed meal 01: 2312 yuan, up 17 yuan, up 0.74%; Rapeseed meal 05: 2416 yuan, up 6 yuan, up 0.25%; Rapeseed meal 09: 2509 yuan, up 22 yuan, up 0.88%; CBOT yellow soybeans: 1075 yuan, unchanged, 0%; Offshore RMB: 7.2017, up 0.0045, up 0.06% [16][18] Price Differences between Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - M01-05: 209 yuan, up 18 yuan; M05-09: -155 yuan, down 15 yuan; M09-01: -54 yuan, down 3 yuan; RM01-05: -104 yuan, up 11 yuan; RM05-09: -93 yuan, down 16 yuan; RM09-01: 197 yuan, up 5 yuan; Soybean meal spot in Rizhao: 3000 yuan, unchanged; Soybean meal basis in Rizhao: 86 yuan, down 28 yuan; Rapeseed meal spot in Fujian: 2453 yuan, down 11 yuan; Rapeseed meal basis in Fujian: -34 yuan, up 46 yuan; Spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal: 547 yuan, unchanged; Futures price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal: 405 yuan, up 6 yuan [19]

Report Title - The report is titled "Weekly Oil Report 20250509: Accumulation of Malaysian Palm Oil Stocks Gradually Realized, Oil Price Spread Repair" [1][2][10] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints Palm Oil - The downside space is limited, with support at the [7700] level for the p2509 contract. The Southeast Asian palm oil production is in a seasonal transition phase, with subsequent production expected to recover, and prices are expected to be under pressure in the medium to long term. The Indonesian B40 policy has not been clearly implemented, and its positive impact is expected to be limited. Domestic inventory is low, and subsequent ship purchases are slow, resulting in tight supply, but low cost - effectiveness restricts demand. Overall, short - term macro sentiment has eased, but there is still a weakening expectation in the future, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the 09 spreads of soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm [3] Soybean Oil - The downside space is limited, with support at the [7500] level for the y2509 contract. Globally, South American soybeans are in a continuous high - yield pattern, and the supply is relatively sufficient. The fundamental pressure on US soybeans is limited, but the expected decline in the new - season planting area and the upgrade of China - US tariffs are negative for US soybean exports. CBOT soybeans are under pressure, but the downside space may be limited, with support around 950 cents per bushel. Domestically, the supply of imported soybeans is expected to increase in the second quarter, and the soybean oil inventory is at a neutral level, with supply expected to remain loose. In the medium to long term, the impact of weather is expected to increase due to the significant reduction in US planting area, and the uncertainty of China - US trade relations remains. It is recommended to buy on dips for the y2509 contract, and pay attention to the regression opportunity of the 09 soybean - palm spread and the short - selling opportunity of the oil - tank ratio [3][6] Rapeseed Oil - In the short term, it is prone to rise but the upside space is limited, with resistance at the [9700] level for the OI509 contract. Globally, the supply - demand of oilseeds in the 2024/25 season remains loose, but the supply - demand of rapeseeds has tightened marginally due to the slight reduction in Canadian rapeseed production and frost - induced减产 in the EU. The high - yield expectation of South American new crops still exerts pressure on the oilseed sector. Domestically, the rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, and the supply of near - month rapeseeds and rapeseed oil is expected to remain loose. Recently, China's tariff policy on Canada has strengthened the downside support for rapeseed oil, but the domestic loose supply may limit the upside space. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate, and there may be phased long - buying opportunities in the medium to long term. Attention should be paid to the regression opportunity of the 09 rapeseed - palm spread [4] Summary by Directory Southeast Asian Palm Oil - The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures market showed narrow - range fluctuations this week. The increase in Malaysian palm oil production is being gradually realized, and the inventory accumulation expectation has put obvious pressure on the futures price. The increase in purchase intentions from China and India and the slight rebound in international crude oil prices led to a rebound after the price hit an eight - month low. High - frequency data shows that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil in April increased by 3.6 - 5.1% month - on - month, but production is expected to increase by 14.74 - 19.88% month - on - month, and it is expected that Malaysia will continue to accumulate inventory to 156 - 175 tons in April. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from May 1 - 5 increased by 19.88% month - on - month, and production increased by 60.17% month - on - month. In Indonesia, the export reference price of crude palm oil in May 2025 has been lowered. In India, the import of palm oil increased in March due to post - Ramadan restocking demand, but there are rumors that India may raise the import tariff on edible oils, which may suppress import demand [15][22] US Soybeans and Soybean Oil - CBOT soybean futures fluctuated weakly this week. The ongoing South American soybean harvest season and concerns about demand have put pressure on the market. The good dry weather in the US Midwest is expected to facilitate soybean planting. As of May 4, the US soybean planting rate reached 30%, higher than last year and the five - year average. As of May 6, about 15% of the US soybean - producing areas were affected by drought, similar to the previous week. As of April 24, the cumulative export of US soybeans in the 24/25 season was 4327.96 tons, a 12.78% increase year - on - year, and the completion rate of the USDA's forecast is 95.46%. The weather in the US Midwest is generally good this week, with limited rainfall opportunities later [31][32][33] South American Soybeans and Soybean Oil - The South American soybean harvest is coming to an end, and the high - yield expectation is becoming a reality. The USDA's April supply - demand report estimated a record - high production of 169 million tons for Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/25 season and a reduced production of 49 million tons for Argentine soybeans. As of May 3, the Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 97.7%, a 2.9% increase from last week. Various institutions expect an increase in Brazilian soybean production in the 2024/25 season compared to the previous year. The Argentine soybean harvest progress as of April 29 was accelerating, and the BAGE estimated the 2024/25 Argentine soybean production to be 50 million tons [64][65][69] Global Rapeseeds and Rapeseed Oil - The global rapeseed supply in the 2024/25 season has tightened marginally. The USDA's April report showed a slight decline in global rapeseed production compared to the previous year. Exports and crushing of rapeseeds have both been adjusted downwards. The ending inventory has increased slightly, and the stock - to - consumption ratio has recovered to 10.41%, at a relatively low - to - neutral level in recent years. Canada is expected to see a 1.7% decline in rapeseed planting area in 2025. In the past two weeks, precipitation in the Canadian prairie provinces has been relatively low, but it is expected to improve in the next week. As of May 4, the Canadian rapeseed oil export volume increased by 8.02% week - on - week to 18.45 tons [76][77][78] Domestic Oils Market Review - This week, domestic oils showed a more differentiated performance. Palm oil and soybean oil fluctuated weakly, while rapeseed oil was relatively strong. Palm oil was dragged down by the expected inventory accumulation in Malaysia, and the domestic import profit has been rapidly repaired, stimulating near - month ship purchases. Soybean oil was affected by the weak external market and the unclear macro - environment. Rapeseed oil was supported by China - Canada trade relations and tariff policies, and the dry weather in Canadian rapeseed - producing areas also contributed to its strength [97] Future Outlook - Palm oil: Supply is expected to be tight in the short term, but medium - to - long - term production increases may limit the upside. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for distant - month palm oil on rallies. The soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm spreads are expected to repair, but the repair rhythm may be slow. - Soybean oil: It is recommended to buy on dips for the y2509 contract. Pay attention to the regression opportunity of the 09 soybean - palm spread and the short - selling opportunity of the oil - tank ratio. - Rapeseed oil: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and there may be phased long - buying opportunities in the medium to long term. Pay attention to the export situation in Canada, domestic arrivals, crushing, and提货 situations [97][98][99] Pressing, Production, and Consumption - In the 18th week (April 26 - May 2), the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 152.3 tons, and the开机率 was 42.81%. It is expected to increase to 174.3 tons in the 19th week, with an开机率 of 49%. The trading volume of soybean oil decreased. As of April 30, the coastal rapeseed crushing volume was 9.55 tons, a decrease from the previous period, and the rapeseed oil production decreased to 3.92 tons. The提货 volume increased slightly. The trading volume of palm oil increased this week [101][102] Inventory - As of April 28, 2025, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils (soybean, palm, and rapeseed) in key domestic regions was 177.88 tons, a 0.90% increase from last week and a 5.94% increase year - on - year. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil inventory increased slightly, while palm oil inventory decreased slightly [126] Basis and Spread - This week, the soybean oil spot basis was weakly adjusted, with northern prices remaining firm and southern prices starting to decline. The palm oil basis declined steadily, and the rapeseed oil basis was slightly adjusted downwards. As of May 9, the September basis of soybean oil (Tianjin) was 395 yuan/ton, the September basis of palm oil (Guangzhou) was 579 yuan/ton, and the September basis of rapeseed oil (Zhangjiagang) was 230 yuan/ton [155]

油脂油料产业日报 2025/05/07 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观 点、结论和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在 不发出通知的情形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不 能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许 可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东 亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The first scenario is likely to be triggered, and the price of oils and fats may decline. The recent increase in supply and concerns about the decline of high valuations are more certain. The supply shortage of US biodiesel and rapeseed may already be reflected in the high prices of US soybean oil and rapeseed products. It is expected that the price of oils and fats will decline in the near future [2][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Recent Market Review of Oils and Fats - Since April, Trump's trade policy has caused global commodity turmoil. Crude oil prices have dropped significantly due to pessimistic expectations, driving down the overall price of vegetable oils. High-frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly, but the high-frequency export data in the early April was good. The market expects that India and other regions may be replenishing their inventories, and the inventory of Malaysian palm oil in April is still at a relatively low level. The price of US soybean oil was strong in April because the domestic inventory of US soybean oil was low, and the US biodiesel policy is expected to significantly increase the consumption of soybean oil. Supported by these two factors, the price of oils and fats has stabilized and fluctuated [4] 2. The Export of Malaysian Palm Oil in April May Fall Short of Expectations, and the Increase in Production and Accumulation of Inventory May Drive Down the Price of Oils and Fats - The latest high-frequency data in April shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 17.03% month-on-month in the first 30 days of April, and the production in April may reach the highest level in the same period in the past five years. The export increased by 3.6%-5.1% month-on-month, reversing the previous recovery trend. If the apparent consumption is estimated at 350,000 tons, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil at the end of April may be around 1.75 million tons. If the abnormally high apparent consumption of 450,000 tons in March is considered, the inventory at the end of April may be around 1.65 million tons. Against the background of a significant recovery in production, if the demand countries slow down the pace of inventory replenishment, the accumulation of inventory of Malaysian palm oil will accelerate. The valuation of Malaysian palm oil is usually related to crude oil and the inventory of Malaysian palm oil. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is usually inversely proportional to POGO, and this inverse relationship has become more obvious in recent years with the increase in the blending ratio of biofuels. From the perspective of the data relationship, if the inventory of Malaysian palm oil recovers to the level of 1.7 million tons, the spread usually drops to around $200/ton, while the current spread level is $400/ton. Therefore, against the background that the accumulation of inventory of Malaysian palm oil may reach the level of 1.7 million tons, there may be room for the price of oils and fats to decline in the future [5] 3. The US Biodiesel Policy May Be Bullish in the Medium Term, but the Short-Term Supply Pressure Still Needs to Be Released - In the previous WeChat official account post, it was believed that for palm oil to show a clear upward or downward trend in the future, new drivers are needed from crude oil, production, and demand. There are two scenarios. The first scenario is that the production recovers significantly in April and May, leading to the expectation of inventory accumulation; or the price of crude oil drops significantly, resulting in a decrease in demand and impaired valuation; or a combination of the two, triggering a significant decline scenario. The second scenario is that the production of palm oil fails to increase before July, just meeting the demand. The macroeconomy stabilizes, and there are weather problems in the planting of soybeans and rapeseed, which is likely to lead to a high-level oscillation scenario. Currently, the first scenario is likely to be triggered, and the price of oils and fats may decline. The market is discussing the bullish factors of the supply-side reduction in rapeseed production in Europe and the low inventory of rapeseed in the producing areas, as well as the demand-side US soybean oil biodiesel policy. Due to the low average temperature in Europe, the growth period of rapeseed is longer, and the drought in the early stage reached a historical level. However, the recent rainfall has recovered, and the extent of the production reduction still needs further verification. According to the data of Statistics Canada, the exportable inventory of Canadian rapeseed is almost exhausted, while according to the data of USDA, there is still a certain amount of export. The recent continuous increase in the futures price also reflects the tight supply of rapeseed in the country. However, the inventory of domestic rapeseed oil is relatively high. Under the situation that the palm oil producing areas are actively reducing prices and the supply of soybean oil is sufficient, the difficulty of destocking domestic rapeseed oil in the future also needs to be tested. The US soybean oil biodiesel policy is expected to increase the demand for soybean oil by 500,000-1 million tons per year due to the expected increase in the blending obligation, but the specific details and the use of foreign raw materials still need to be determined by the official, which is expected to be established at some point this year. Overall, the recent increase in supply and concerns about the decline of high valuations are more certain. The supply shortage of US biodiesel and rapeseed may already be reflected in the high prices of US soybean oil and rapeseed products. It is expected that the price of oils and fats will decline in the near future [8][9]

外盘方面，美豆同样受到关税战影响先抑后扬，产量方面则缺乏炒作题材，月底美国生物燃料政策的传闻一定程度扰动了市场，本 月CBOT大豆期货小幅收涨，但美豆仍在盘区运行；国际棕榈油方面，原油下挫对棕榈油打击不小，外加印尼B40计划无实质进展以及出口 表现疲软，马棕油持续偏弱运行，本月马棕油期货下跌近10%。 数据来源：wind、金石期货研究所 冯子悦 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 一、行情回顾 行情回顾 4月国内油脂表现动荡，由于中美贸易战超预期升级，对全球经济的担忧情绪重挫大宗商品市场，月初油脂大幅下挫。之后市场恐慌 情绪逐步缓和，且国内豆油库存降至同期低位，短期供应的收紧对整体油脂价格形成支撑，但随着进口大豆大量到港通关以及油厂开机 率逐步回升，月底油脂再次回落，本月豆油期货收跌近2%；棕榈油方面，低库存对价格形成一定支撑，连棕相较马棕更为抗跌，本月棕 榈油期货收跌近4%；菜籽油方面，国内菜籽油继续累库，但原料库存已经偏低，基本面近弱远强，本月菜籽油期货以窄幅震荡为主。 油脂月报（2025年4月） 供应拐点出现 关税扰动减弱 注册仓单量 | | 本月 | 上月 | 变 ...

小K侃有色 . 我是小K，欢迎大家来扎营、吐槽，集股债商汇于一体，无分析不成文、无数学不乐趣的辣评集中营。 以下文章来源于小K侃有色 ，作者小K侃有色 文 | 小K侃有色 来源 | 小K侃有色 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 摘要 自4月2日对等关税以来大宗商品跳空暴跌8.88%（最高点到最低点），后随着90天暂停关税市场沿着关税缓和的路径修复了部分 下跌，目前自最低点上涨了3.92%，目前看跳空缺口修复无望。在此期间波动率快速收窄，技术上也面临20日均线的压制，静等 下一步指引。如果从板块上来看，工业品弱于农产品，工业品之于关税作用于需求远大于供给，农产品作用于供给远大于需求。 还有一个现象，这一波下跌实际上是压缩利润的，最明显的例子就是化工品相对于油品来说反弹是更弱的，扒开各个品种细分来 看也大致如此。 接下来大宗市场路向何方？我们也来唠一唠。 一、宏观上，今年也是宏观大年，不过相对于前两年来说是宏观利空年 国际货币基金组织(IMF)当地时间4月22日发布最新一期《世界经济展望报告》，将2025年全球经济增长预期下调至2.8%，较今年1月 预测值低0.5个百分点。IMF预计，2026年全球经济将增 ...

期货研究报告|油脂周报 2025-04-27 大豆通关问题持续，豆油基差表现坚挺 研究院 农产品组 研究员 李馨 联系人 白旭宇 010-64405663 baixuyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03114139 薛钧元 010-64405663 xuejunyuan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03114096 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 策略摘要 油脂观点 ■ 市场分析 本周三大油脂震荡上涨，豆油因现货紧张提振盘面走势，且五一前预计难以缓解使得豆 油基差坚挺；棕榈油因进入增产季节且 3 月国内进口环比增加，基差本周下降较多，菜 油消息面较平静，整体跟随其他油脂波动。近期油脂主力合约转到 09，豆棕价差本周变 化不大，截止 4 月 25 日收盘，豆棕 09 合约价差-442，菜棕 09 合约价差 1130. lixin@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 后市看，豆油方面，据 USDA 报告，截至 2025 年 4 月 20 日当周，美国大豆种植率为 8%，五年均值为 5%，播种进度整体快于预期；另外该报告指出美国约 23%大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The research focuses on the oilseed industry in Jiangsu, highlighting the impact of low soybean imports and trade tensions on market dynamics, particularly for soybean meal and oil [3][5]. Group 1: Soybean Market Insights - In Q1, oil mills had fewer soybean purchases due to lower-than-average soybean harvests in Brazil, leading to lower domestic soybean arrivals [3][6]. - The expected peak for soybean arrivals is late April, with some companies anticipating a short-term bullish trend for soybean meal in early April [3][6]. - Oil mills generally import soybeans via Zhoushan port, with a customs clearance time of about 20-25 days [3][6]. Group 2: Canola Market Dynamics - Trade tensions between China and Canada have altered the export outlook for Canadian canola, while U.S.-Canada relations also significantly affect canola and meal exports [3][6]. - Russian canola faces export tariffs, and low inventory levels have led to a reluctance among farmers to sell, impacting market prices [3][6]. Group 3: Oil Mill Operations - The oil mills in the region have varying capacities, with some processing up to 10,000 tons of soybeans daily, and they face seasonal shutdowns for maintenance [11][22]. - The expected soybean processing volume for April to June is projected to be high, with a potential rebound in prices anticipated in June and July [16][20]. Group 4: Sales and Inventory Trends - Sales of soybean meal and oil are currently slow, with inventory levels being closely monitored due to fluctuating demand from feed mills [20][28]. - The market is seeing a cautious approach to purchasing, with many companies preferring to wait for clearer signals before committing to large orders [36][38]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Companies express a generally optimistic long-term view on the agricultural sector, anticipating potential price increases in the coming months [24][30]. - The overall sentiment indicates that while short-term pressures exist, the market may stabilize and improve as supply chain issues are resolved [45].