Core Insights - The 2025 China (Leshan) Silicon Industry Chain Development Conference emphasizes "technological innovation to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and industry collaboration for progress" [1] - The conference gathered nearly 600 representatives from various sectors of the silicon industry, focusing on high-quality development and collaborative paths for industry upgrades [1] Industry Developments - The Chinese silicon industry has transitioned from scale expansion to quality improvement, marking a historic leap [3] - The President of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association highlighted the need for Leshan to leverage the conference platform to optimize the business environment and promote high-end, intelligent, and green development of the silicon industry [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the importance of optimizing service chains and restructuring core competitiveness in the face of increasing international competition [3] Market Potential - The Chairman and CEO of Tongwei Co., Ltd. noted the immense potential of the photovoltaic industry, which is crucial for China's energy security strategy and achieving carbon neutrality goals [4] - The cost of photovoltaic power generation has significantly decreased, with costs reaching 0.1 to 0.2 yuan per kilowatt-hour in various global regions, showcasing its economic viability [4] Recycling and Sustainability - The importance of recycling in the silicon industry was highlighted, with potential savings of 200,000 tons of high-purity silicon raw materials annually through the recycling of silicon powder from the photovoltaic sector [4][5] - The semiconductor industry can reduce raw material costs by 30% through the recycling of high-purity silicon from chips using directional impurity removal technology [5] Conference Activities - The conference, hosted by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, will continue until June 26, featuring thematic reports, high-level dialogues, and workshops aimed at fostering consensus and promoting high-quality development in the crystalline silicon photovoltaic industry [7]

Report Overview - The report is the "Silicon Industry Chain Enterprise Risk Management Daily Report" by Nanhua Futures, dated June 25, 2025, written by Xia Yingying and Yu Weihang [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Industrial silicon is in the industrial cycle of eliminating backward production capacity, with continuous supply surplus pressure. It is necessary to wait for inventory to be digested to a healthy level [3] - Polysilicon is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. If there are production capacity elimination plans or industrial integration agreements in the future, it is expected to improve the industry situation [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Price Range - Industrial silicon's strong pressure level is 7,600 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 24.0%, a daily decline of 1.00%, and a historical percentile of current volatility (3 years) of 72.2% [2] - Polysilicon's strong pressure level is 33,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 24.26%, a daily decline of 0.30%, and a historical percentile of current volatility (3 years) of 53.38% [2] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For high product inventory and inventory impairment risk, short futures (30% hedging ratio) and sell call options (70% hedging ratio), and buy out - of - the - money put options [2] - **Procurement Management**: For future production plans and raw material price increase risks, buy long - term futures contracts according to production plans, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2] Core Logic - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply surplus pressure persists. Supply may increase with the approaching of the wet season, and demand from different industries varies. It is necessary to wait for inventory digestion [3] - **Polysilicon**: It is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. If there are production capacity elimination or integration, the industry situation may improve [3] 利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - **Industrial Silicon**: Cost reduction space is limited in the short - term, profit valuation is low, and there is a high probability of supply disturbances; downstream enterprises' profits exist, and production enthusiasm is promoted by the approaching wet season [7] - **Polysilicon**: There may be production capacity integration and elimination plans; downstream enterprises recognize and buy polysilicon on the futures side; the phenomenon of high open interest in near - month contracts and few warehouse receipts may cause market fluctuations [7] 利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - **Industrial Silicon**: The release of production capacity in the southwest region is expected to be realized as the wet season approaches; the rumor of joint production cuts by downstream polysilicon enterprises may become a reality [7] - **Polysilicon**: The failure of enterprise integration and elimination, and enterprises maintain the status quo of production; raw material prices are low and production profit increases, leading to increased production [5][8] Industrial Silicon Futures Data - **Prices**: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract is 7,555 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 70 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.94% [10] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume is 504,119 lots, a decrease of 17.69% compared with the previous period; the open interest is 306,644 lots, an increase of 4.50% compared with the previous period [10] Industrial Silicon Spot Data - Prices of 553 and 421 silicon in different regions are mostly stable, with the price of Sichuan 421 silicon decreasing by 100 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.03% [16] - The basis of East China 553 and 421 silicon has decreased, with a decline of 8.9% and 5.08% respectively [16] Polysilicon Futures Data - **Prices**: The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract is 30,625 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 460 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 1.48% [24] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume is 146,141 lots, a decrease of 15.02% compared with the previous period; the open interest is 80,107 lots, an increase of 10.82% compared with the previous period [24] Polysilicon Spot Data - The prices of various types of polysilicon are stable, with no daily change [37] Silicon Wafer Data - The prices of N - type silicon wafers mostly show a downward trend, with the N - type silicon wafer price index decreasing by 0.02 yuan/piece, a decline of 0.02 [38] Warehouse Receipt Data - The total industrial silicon warehouse receipts are 53,263 lots, a decrease of 307 lots compared with the previous period, a decline of 3.52% [22] - The total polysilicon warehouse receipts are 2,600 lots, with no change compared with the previous period [40]

Group 1 - The opening ceremony and keynote speech will take place at the Jin Haitang Hotel Conference Center, 2nd floor on June 25 [1] - A buffet lunch for participants attending the opening ceremony will be held at the Jin Haitang Hotel Conference Center, 1st floor restaurant on June 25 [1] - All representatives will gather at the lobby of Leshan Huayi Hotel from 08:30 to 08:50 on June 25 to take a shuttle bus to Jin Haitang Hotel for the opening ceremony [2] Group 2 - After lunch, representatives will return to Leshan Huayi Hotel via shuttle bus from 12:30 to 13:00 [2]

工业硅期货早报 2025年6月24日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.1万吨，环比有所增加2.53%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7.1万吨，环比减少13.41%.需求持续低迷.多晶硅 库存为26.2万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利；有机硅库存为 72800吨，处于高位，有机硅生产利润为82元/吨，处于盈利状态，其综合开工率 为68.4%，环比持平，高于历史同期平均水平；铝合金锭库存为2.38万吨，处于高 位，进口亏损为674元/吨，A356铝送至无锡运费和利润为655.4元/吨，再生铝开 工率为53.6%，还比减少0.55%,处于低位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: June 23, 2025 - Report Type: Daily Risk Management Report on Silicon Industry Chain Enterprises - Analyst: Xia Yingying, Yu Weihan Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Industrial silicon is in the industrial cycle of eliminating backward production capacity, with continuous supply surplus pressure. As the wet season approaches, enterprises in the southwest region are gradually increasing furnace starts, and the inventory may further accumulate. The demand side shows that the overall output of silicone enterprises remains stable, while aluminum alloy enterprises perform averagely. The high - inventory pattern remains unchanged, limiting the price upside [3]. - Polysilicon is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The PV rush - installation tide has overdrafted some future demand. On the supply side, raw material prices remain low, polysilicon production has increased, and downstream production schedules have slightly declined, with high inventory pressure still existing. If there are production capacity elimination plans or industrial integration agreements in the future, it is expected to improve the polysilicon industry situation [3]. Key Points by Category 1. Futures Price and Volatility - Industrial silicon主力合约: Strong pressure level at 7600 yuan/ton, current 20 - day rolling volatility at 28.0%, daily increase of 0.02%, current volatility at the 84.6% percentile in the past 3 years [2]. - Polysilicon主力合约: Strong pressure level at 33000 yuan/ton, current 20 - day rolling volatility at 25.76%, daily increase of 0.35%, current volatility at the 61.20% percentile in the past 3 years [2]. 2. Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high product inventory and inventory impairment risks, short futures (SI2509/PS2509) with a 30% hedging ratio to lock in profits and make up for production costs, sell call options (both over - the - counter and on - exchange options) with a 70% ratio, and buy out - of - the - money put options [2]. Procurement Management - For enterprises with future production plans and the risk of rising raw material prices, buy long - term futures contracts of industrial silicon or polysilicon according to the production plan to lock in procurement costs, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2]. 3. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Likely Positive Factors**: Positive domestic macro - policies may stimulate power demand growth in the long run; cost reduction space is limited in the short term, providing cost support; downstream demand enterprises still have profits, and the approaching wet season may boost production enthusiasm [7]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: As the wet season approaches, production capacity in the southwest region is expected to be released; rumors of joint production cuts by downstream polysilicon enterprises may become a reality, weakening demand; high inventory restricts price increases [7]. Polysilicon - **Likely Positive Factors**: There may be production capacity integration and elimination plans in the industry, which could improve the industry situation if an agreement is reached [7]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Inventory is still in an accumulation trend, and demand has not improved; the combination of low raw material prices and the approaching wet season may lead to increased production by polysilicon enterprises [8]. 4. Market Data Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures主力合约 is 7420 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 30 yuan (0.41%); the trading volume is 292932 lots, a decrease of 285562 lots (- 49.36%); the open interest is 303119 lots, a decrease of 2437 lots (- 0.80%) [10]. - **Spot**: The price of East China 553 silicon is 8150 yuan/ton, with no daily change; the price of East China 421 silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, with no daily change; the basis of East China 553 is 730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan (- 3.95%); the basis of East China 421 is 1280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan (- 2.29%) [14]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total warehouse receipts are 54184 lots, a decrease of 439 lots (- 5.29%); the inventory at the Kunming delivery warehouse is 8.3 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons (- 37.67%) [19]. Polysilicon - **Futures**: The closing price of the polysilicon futures主力合约 is 30615 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1085 yuan (- 3.42%); the trading volume is 88450 lots, an increase of 334 lots (0.38%); the open interest is 78183 lots, an increase of 52026 lots (198.90%) [22]. - **Spot**: The price of P - type polysilicon (dense material) is 30 yuan/kg, with no daily change; the price of N - type polysilicon (dense material) is 33.5 yuan/kg, with no daily change [37]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total polysilicon warehouse receipts are 2600 lots, with no daily change [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - China's economy shows a stable and positive trend, with the manufacturing PMI marginally rebounding in May, industrial enterprise profit growth continuing to turn positive, the central bank's 1 trillion yuan outright reverse repurchase maintaining a moderately loose tone, and resilient foreign trade exports. However, the trade war impacts the global supply chain and may exacerbate the stagflation risk in the US economy [4][9][53]. - The supply - side improvement is limited, with the operating rate in Xinjiang dropping to 60%, a slight recovery in Inner Mongolia and Gansu, and the southwest region approaching the resumption cycle during the wet season. Social inventory shows a slight decline, and the decrease in warehouse receipt inventory is mainly due to the monthly decrease in domestic production [4][53]. - On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises enter an active production - cut cycle due to shrinking downstream demand. The silicon wafer market orders are weak, battery enterprises engage in panic selling to reduce inventory, and the component market demand weakens significantly after the end of the rush - installation period. In traditional industries, silicone monomer enterprises' production - cut to support prices has little effect, while the aluminum alloy output and processing fees show a slight increase. It is expected that the demand side will still face downward pressure in June, and the supply - side will passively contract, with the oversupply situation difficult to change. Industrial silicon is expected to confirm the stage bottom support [4][55]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 2025 May Industrial Silicon Market Review - **Industrial Silicon Futures Price Continues to Reach Bottom**: In May 2025, industrial silicon showed a volatile downward trend. The main 2507 contract traded between 7130 - 8500 yuan/ton, with the price center moving down. The overall sentiment in the photovoltaic industry chain was weak, and the demand faced significant downward pressure. The traditional industries of silicone and aluminum alloy also had weak demand. By May 30, the main 2507 contract closed at 7160 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 16.1% [9]. - **Spot Market Continues to Decline**: By the end of May, the overall furnace - opening rate of industrial silicon decreased to 27.3%. The social inventory decreased slightly to 58.9 tons due to the decline in absolute production in May. The demand in traditional industries and the photovoltaic industry decreased, making it difficult for the supply - side to resume production strongly. The spot prices of mainstream grades such as 553 continued to decline, and it is expected that the prices of domestic mainstream grades will have limited rebound space in June [12][13]. Macroeconomic Analysis - **China's Foreign Trade Exports are Resilient, and Industrial Enterprise Profits in April Accelerate to Turn Positive**: In April, China's total foreign trade export value reached 535.2 billion US dollars, with exports increasing by 8.1% year - on - year. ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner from January to April. The profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.4% year - on - year from January to April, and the equipment manufacturing industry's profit growth was prominent [18][19]. Fundamental Analysis - **Limited Recovery of Northern Production Capacity, and Sichuan and Yunnan are Approaching the Resumption Period during the Wet Season**: In May, the industrial silicon output decreased by 3.6% month - on - month to 305,000 tons. The production capacity recovery in the north was limited, while Sichuan and Yunnan were approaching the resumption time window during the wet season. It is expected that the operating rate of the industrial silicon industry will rebound from a low level in June [21]. - **Expected Stable Export Volume in June**: From January to April, the cumulative export volume of industrial silicon was 216,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. It is expected that the export volume from May to June will remain stable at 60,000 - 70,000 tons [31]. - **High - level Social Inventory in May**: By May 30, the social inventory decreased slightly to 589,000 tons, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 8.6% month - on - month. It is expected that the social inventory will continue to decline steadily in June [34]. - **Photovoltaic Industry Chain Enters a Contraction Cycle, and Silicone Industry's Price - Cutting to Reduce Inventory Becomes the Mainstream**: In May, the polysilicon output decreased by 4.3% month - on - month, and the prices of silicon wafers, batteries, and components all declined. The silicon wafer market orders were weak, and the component market price reached a new low. The silicone DMC output increased slightly in May, and it is expected that the price will maintain a weak oscillation at a low level. The aluminum alloy output and processing fees increased slightly in May, but it is expected that the output will be difficult to grow significantly in June [36][38][39]. Market Outlook - The macro - economic situation is stable and positive in China, but the trade war impacts the global economy. The supply - side improvement is limited, and the demand - side pressure remains. Industrial silicon is expected to confirm the stage bottom support [4][53][55].

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 06 月 22 日 工业硅需求端，下游短期需求增加。多晶硅视角，6-7 月硅料排产或持续提升，整体对工业硅采购有所 起色。有机硅端，本周有机硅周产有所减少，有机硅企业后续复产空间不大，短期对工业硅采购体量边际减 少。事实上，有机硅终端尚未出现起色，消费提振亦有限。铝合金端，进入 6-7 月为铝合金消费淡季，整 体刚需订单，实际交易量未见明显增加。出口市场，出口商近期基本以刚需为主，并未出现囤货现象。 多晶硅供给端，短期周度产量边际提升。市场消息称四川云南、新疆、青海部分工厂复产，此将带来供 应的边际增量。预计 6 月排产 10.3 万吨，7 月排产 11.9 万吨，环比增加 1.6 万吨。库存视角，SMM 统计 本周硅料厂家库存小幅去库，上游库存压力仍处高位，预计报价仍将下调。 工业硅：短期仓单去化较快，但上方空间有限 多晶硅：继续维持空配思路 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 报告导读： 本周价格走势：工业硅盘面小幅反弹，现货价格维持；多晶硅盘面大幅下行，现货报价亦下移 工业硅运行情况：本周工业硅盘面受多晶硅复产超预期 ...

2025 年 6 月 20 日 工业硅、多晶硅：下行周期，需求为锚 张航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 报告导读： 安 期 货 研 究 所 2025 年至今，工业硅、多晶硅盘面价格相较年初已呈现出很大跌幅，但我们认为价格仍未到达底部。目前，双硅均 处于库存高企、成本塌陷以及需求崩塌的格局之下。从 2025 年 4 月份开始，盘面的交易逻辑已更多转向为需求定价， 即需求成色很大程度上决定了盘面的涨跌。此时，成本估值逻辑开始失效，虽上游工厂复产或不减产具备各种各样的原 因，但最直观的解读或许为价格并未跌至真正的成本线位置。站在 6 月中旬的时间点，无论是工业硅还是多晶硅工厂， 均有继续复产的预期，此会给到三季度供应端进一步的边际增量。而此时需求尚未见底，在此情形下出现因短期扰动带 来的反弹将会是很好的做空机会。也即，在需求并未见底的路径之下，价格难言底部，甚至极端行情之中很有可能会击 穿静态现金成本线位置。因此整体来看，在终端需求好转之前，我们对工业硅、多晶硅期货均维持空配的思路。 工业硅供需平衡角度，三季度供需过剩，四季度供需转紧平衡。三季度供需双增，但受限于终端 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The silicon market is experiencing weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure. Silicon prices are expected to remain under pressure in the short - term but have limited downside potential as they are already at a low level. For polysilicon, the fundamentals are weak, and prices are unlikely to show an upward trend in the short - term, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds recommended [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Prices**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) average price also remained unchanged at 8,700 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price rose 0.61% to 7,470 yuan/ton. The basis (East China 553 - futures main) decreased by 45 yuan to 630 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: On June 19, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 55.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3 million tons. Social ordinary warehouses had 13.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.2 million tons, and social delivery warehouses had 42.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In terms of supply, some northern silicon enterprises reduced production due to cost - price inversion, and southwest producers were hesitant to resume production. In terms of demand, polysilicon enterprises continued to cut production, organic silicon enterprises had a strong willingness to cut production to support prices but faced weak demand, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased as needed [1]. Polysilicon - **Prices**: N - type dense material dropped 2.90% to 33.5 yuan/kg, polysilicon re - feed material fell 3.08% to 31.5 yuan/kg, polysilicon dense material decreased 4.76% to 30.0 yuan/kg, and polysilicon cauliflower material declined 3.39% to 28.5 yuan/kg. The futures main contract closing price dropped 1.95% to 32,720 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply - side, silicon material enterprises continued to cut production, but some may add new capacity, with an expected slight increase in output. Demand - side, the photovoltaic market was weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials, and falling prices of silicon wafers, cells, and components [1]. Other Related Products - **Silicon Wafer Prices**: N - type 210mm decreased 0.79% to 1.26 yuan/piece, N - type 210R dropped 0.94% to 1.05 yuan/piece, N - type 183mm fell 1.10% to 0.90 yuan/piece, while P - type 210mm and P - type 182mm remained unchanged [1]. - **Cell Prices**: The price of single - crystal PERC cells M10 - 182mm remained at 0.27 yuan/watt [1]. - **Component Prices**: The prices of single - crystal PERC components (single - sided 182mm, single - sided 210mm, double - sided 182mm, double - sided 210mm) remained unchanged [1]. - **Organic Silicon Prices**: DMC dropped 1.41% to 10,500 yuan/ton, 107 glue decreased 0.42% to 11,800 yuan/ton, and silicone oil fell 0.37% to 13,600 yuan/ton [1]. Industry News - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association's meeting this week focused on "production limitation to maintain prices." Photovoltaic enterprises are expected to cut production more significantly in the third quarter, with the开工 rate expected to drop by 10% - 15%. A strict policy against "below - cost sales" will be implemented, and product sales with sub - standard quality will be rectified [1].

工业硅日报 一、研究观点 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 6 月 19 日） 工业硅日报 点评 18 日多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2507 收于 33370 元/吨，日内跌幅 2%，持仓 减仓 13008 手至 30435 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格跌至 35500 元/吨， 最低交割品 N 型硅料价格跌至 35500 元/吨，现货对主力升水扩至 2130 元 /吨。工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2509 收于 7425 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.1%，持仓 减仓 1130 手至 31.8 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 8636 元/吨，较上一交 易日持稳。最低交割品#553 价格降至 7600 元/吨，现货升水收至 130 元/ 吨。随着硅煤电极等成本重心下调，西南电价优惠落地，复产陆续推进， 工业硅结束超跌修复、重归下行节奏。多晶硅增减产并行，大部分厂家大 规模减产，仍有西南少量厂家有增产计划。拉晶端即用即采且倾向于低品 混包硅料，压价态度坚决。晶硅库存周转延至 1 个半月，降库重压下持续 降价态势难以避免，现货升水稳步收敛。因企业大量交仓盘面多头挤仓逻 辑结束，反弹动力不再，延续弱势震荡。 请务必阅读正文之后的 ...