Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report In the short term, although sentiment is slightly supported by macro news, considering the intensifying industrial contradiction of supply surplus, it is advisable to adopt the strategy of shorting on rebounds. Attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro policies, and market sentiment changes in the future [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The main contract of soda ash opened lower and moved lower, showing a weak and volatile trend during the day. The three tracks of the 120 - minute Bollinger Bands opened downward, indicating a short - term weak and volatile signal. The intraday pressure was near the 20 - day moving average of the daily line, and the support was near the lower track of the Bollinger Bands. The trading volume decreased by 127,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 19,651 lots. The intraday high was 1179, the low was 1161, and the closing price was 1163, down 19 yuan/ton (1.61% decline) compared with the previous settlement price [1]. - **Spot market**: It showed a stable and slightly volatile trend. The enterprise equipment had minor adjustments, Jiangsu Debang resumed operation, production increased, and the supply remained at a high level. Downstream demand was mediocre, the purchasing sentiment was poor, and the demand was mainly for low - price and essential needs [1]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 87 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 15, the domestic soda ash production was 775,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,700 tons (2.88% increase). Among them, the light soda ash production was 361,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,400 tons; the heavy soda ash production was 413,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9,300 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.82%, compared with 84.39% last week, a month - on - month increase of 2.43%. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 89.95%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 78.88%, a month - on - month increase of 4.77%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons and above was 89.47%, a month - on - month increase of 1.32% [2]. - **Inventory**: As of January 19, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5442 million tons, a decrease of 30,800 tons (1.96% decline) compared with last Thursday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 822,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,400 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 721,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16,400 tons [2]. - **Demand**: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 773,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.20%; the overall shipment rate was 99.70%, a month - on - month increase of 21.52 percentage points. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. The demand for light soda ash was relatively stable, while the essential demand for heavy soda ash weakened due to the cold repair of glass production lines [2]. - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production method was - 44 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 96.3 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 66.46%. During the week, the price of raw - material rock salt was stable, while the price of thermal coal increased, leading to an increase in costs [3]. Main Logic Summary The current capacity utilization rate of soda ash remains at a high level, and with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output continues to increase. There is still an expectation of cold repair of glass production lines near the end of the month, and the essential demand for soda ash may further weaken. [4]

黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-21 期货震荡偏弱，现货谨慎观望 玻璃纯碱：市场情绪偏弱，玻碱震荡下跌 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃盘面震荡下跌，现货方面，现货市场报价持稳，厂家产销表现平淡，期现市场交投氛围冷清。 供需与逻辑：目前玻璃供需矛盾虽有所好转，但浮法玻璃终端刚需淡季难有突破。短期在投机性需求提升和节后 旺季预期的共同作用下，玻璃期货维持升水。考虑到玻璃面临化解高库存的任务，因此依旧需要通过压价达到进 一步减产的目的。后期关注玻璃冷修和投机情况。 纯碱方面，昨日纯碱盘面震荡运下跌，现货方面，市场以观望谨慎态度对待，下游企业刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：纯碱供需矛盾有所增加，新投产能叠加部分装置恢复带动产量增加，供应维持高位，高供应持续压 制纯碱价格；需求端，下游浮法玻璃刚需一般，光伏玻璃需求改善有限，刚需持稳而投机需求不足。后续若基本 面延续弱现实格局，叠加期现贸易商主动抛货离场的悲观情绪传导，纯碱将面临进一步下行压力，关注浮法玻璃 产线变化和纯碱新投产项目进展。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、浮法玻璃下游需求、纯碱产线检修和库存变化等。 双 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][18] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the off - season, the fundamentals of the black building materials industry are lackluster. The short - term disk is expected to continue its weak adjustment. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream restocking intensity. In January, the resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to boost the restocking expectation, and there is still an expectation of a low - level rebound in furnace material prices [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Industry Situation - Steel demand remains resilient, but there is seasonal weakening pressure later. The fundamentals have limited highlights. Recently, accidents in some steel mills have disturbed the supply side, and the cost support has weakened. The disk performance is poor. The inventory pressure of iron ore may continue to increase, and the disk is weakly adjusted. The downstream procurement enthusiasm for coking coal and coke has increased, but the first round of price increases by coke enterprises has been postponed, and the disk is weakly declining. The oversupply of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the disk price [1][2] 3.2 Different Element Analysis 3.2.1 Iron Element - The expected increase in supply and inventory pressure are gradually increasing. The supply side is still subject to disturbance expectations due to weather, and the pre - holiday restocking on the demand side supports the ore price. In reality, both supply and demand need to be verified, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply of scrap steel has recovered, the electric furnace profit is acceptable, and the daily consumption has also increased, supporting the demand. The overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [2] 3.2.2 Carbon Element - The cost side of coke has stabilized and rebounded, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As the mid - and downstream winter storage restocking gradually starts, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, and the spot price increase is expected to be implemented. The disk is expected to follow coking coal. As the Spring Festival approaches, the winter storage intensity gradually increases, and the subsequent coal mine supply will gradually decrease due to the holiday. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the spot still has upward momentum, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals after the change of trading logic on the disk is limited [2] 3.3 Different Product Analysis 3.3.1 Steel - The spot market trading is weak. The steel mill复产 rhythm has slowed down, the iron water output has decreased month - on - month, and the inventory level is moderately high. Later, there is still seasonal weakening pressure on demand, and the steel mill still has room for复产. There is still pressure to accumulate inventory on the steel side. The cost support is weakening, and the short - term disk is expected to be weakly adjusted [8] 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, and the supply side is subject to disturbance expectations due to weather. The demand side has rigid support, and the steel mill restocking is in progress but the enthusiasm is weak. The port inventory continues to accumulate. The supply increase expectation and inventory pressure are gradually increasing, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [8][9] 3.3.3 Scrap Steel - The supply of scrap steel has increased significantly, and the daily consumption has also increased. The overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent. The recent price of finished products is under pressure, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [10] 3.3.4 Coke - The cost side of coke has strong support, but the price increase implementation has been postponed due to the slight decrease in steel mill iron water output. As the mid - and downstream winter storage restocking starts, the supply - demand structure may tighten, and the spot price increase is expected to be implemented. The disk is expected to follow coking coal [12] 3.3.5 Coking Coal - The trading logic of the disk has changed, and it is weakly operating. The domestic supply is temporarily stable, and the Mongolian coal import has recovered. The winter storage inventory of the mid - and downstream is gradually in place. As the Spring Festival approaches, the fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, and the spot has upward momentum, but the bullish driving force of the disk is limited. It is expected to oscillate [13] 3.3.6 Glass - The supply is still subject to disturbance expectations, and the mid - and downstream inventory is moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [14] 3.3.7 Soda Ash - The supply - demand of soda ash is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [14][16] 3.3.8 Manganese Silicon - The cost support of manganese silicon has loosened, the market supply - demand pattern is loose, and the upstream de - stocking pressure is large. The upside space of the disk price is limited, but the current disk price is at a low level, and excessive short - selling risks should be guarded against [16] 3.3.9 Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is both weak, and the fundamental contradiction is limited. In the short term, the disk price is expected to follow the sector. The current price valuation is low, and the downward space is limited [17] 3.4 Index Information - On January 20, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2414.16, down 0.15%; the commodity 20 index was 2773.48, down 0.23%; the industrial products index was 2308.47, down 0.34%. The steel industry chain index on January 20, 2026, had a daily decline of 1.28%, a decline of 2.75% in the past 5 days, an increase of 0.05% in the past month, and a decline of 0.23% since the beginning of the year [103][105]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For steel products, the production recovery of finished products is slowing down, the apparent consumption of rebar is rising, inventory is turning to destocking but may accumulate later, and the destocking of hot-rolled coils is accelerating but the increase in warehouse receipts is significant. The fundamentals are neutral, lacking drivers, and supported by the cost side, with limited downside space [3]. - For iron ore, the current dominant factor of its price is not its fundamentals but the macro - expectations. In the current situation of continuous inventory accumulation and slow resumption of production, the fundamentals cannot support the current high valuation, and there is a lack of support for the price to continue to rise. However, after the price drops, the selling pressure is released, and steel mills have the rigid demand for replenishing inventory, so the price also has support at the bottom. Overall, it shows a wide - range shock [22]. - For coking coal and coke, the accident at a factory in Inner Mongolia over the weekend may lead to a contraction in local steel supply, which can repair the profit of steel products on the disk and support steel prices. In the follow - up, the result of the incident should be concerned. If the incident leads to stricter supervision and production restrictions in local areas, the progress of hot metal resumption may slow down, exacerbating the short - term surplus contradiction of coking coal. In the long - term, the change in macro sentiment and the resumption rhythm of domestic mines after the Spring Festival should be focused on. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected recovery of domestic supply" and "weakening of macro sentiment", the long - term prices of coking coal and coke will face greater downward pressure [32]. - For ferroalloys, the ferroalloys are supported by the cost side at the bottom. In the short - term, after the correction, they may show a bottom - shock trend [47]. - For soda ash, the previous warming of commodity sentiment drove some low - valued varieties, and the disk price increased. The middle - stream of soda ash replenished inventory, but the elasticity was limited. From the perspective of fundamentals, as the new production capacity gradually releases production, the daily output of soda ash reaches a new high, and the surplus expectation is also intensifying. At present, the expectation that the long - term supply of soda ash will remain at a high level remains unchanged. The photovoltaic glass continues to accumulate inventory, and the number of kiln blockages begins to increase. The balance of heavy soda ash continues to be in surplus. In November, the export of soda ash was close to 190,000 tons, remaining at a high level, which continued to relieve the domestic pressure to a certain extent. The high - level inventory of the upper and middle - streams restricts the price of soda ash [61]. - For glass, there are rumors that some production lines have the expectation of ignition, and the supply - demand expectation has deteriorated. Although the daily melting volume of float glass has declined to a certain low level, the actual demand and expectation are also weak. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, it is difficult to have a trend - based movement. On the supply side, there are still some glass production lines waiting to be cold - repaired and ignited before the Spring Festival, which may affect the far - month pricing and market expectation. In addition, the policy disturbance to the supply cannot be excluded. At present, the high inventory of the middle - stream of glass needs to be digested, the terminal is in the off - season, and the spot pressure still exists [86]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Products - **Price Data**: - **Futures Price**: On January 20, 2026, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3191 yuan/ton, down from 3215 yuan/ton on January 19; the closing price of hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3315 yuan/ton, down from 3344 yuan/ton on January 19 [4]. - **Spot Price**: On January 20, 2026, the aggregated price of rebar in China was 3329 yuan/ton, down from 3336 yuan/ton on January 19; the aggregated price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, down from 3280 yuan/ton on January 19 [9][11]. - **Basis**: On January 20, 2026, the 01 rebar basis (Shanghai) was 89 yuan/ton, up from 75 yuan/ton on January 19; the 01 hot - rolled coil basis (Shanghai) was - 45 yuan/ton, up from - 64 yuan/ton on January 19 [9][11]. - **Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the 01 - 05 rebar spread was 80 yuan/ton, up from 75 yuan/ton on January 19; the 01 - 05 hot - rolled coil spread was 39 yuan/ton, down from 45 yuan/ton on January 19 [4]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: - **Futures Price**: On January 20, 2026, the closing price of 01 contract was 757 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan from January 19 and 73 yuan from January 13 [23]. - **Spot Price**: On January 20, 2026, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 794 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from January 19 and 32 yuan from January 13 [23]. - **Basis**: On January 20, 2026, the 01 basis was 48.5 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan from January 19 and 84.5 yuan from January 13 [23]. - **Fundamental Data**: - The daily average hot metal output on January 16, 2026, was 228.01 tons, down 1.49 tons week - on - week and up 1.46 tons month - on - month [27]. - The 45 - port desilting volume on January 16, 2026, was 319.89 tons, down 3.38 tons week - on - week and up 6.44 tons month - on - month [27]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Price Data**: - **Futures Price Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was - 162, down 1.5 from January 19; the coke 09 - 01 spread was - 111.5, down 28.5 from January 19 [34]. - **Spot Price**: On January 20, 2026, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1620 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19; the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1280 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19 [37]. - **Profit**: The on - the - spot coking profit on January 20, 2026, was - 57 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from January 19 and 38 yuan from January 13 [37]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: - **Price Data**: On January 20, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 48 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan from January 19; the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5320 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19 [48]. - **Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the silicon iron 01 - 05 spread was 124, down 66 from January 19 [48]. - **Silicon Manganese**: - **Price Data**: On January 20, 2026, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 270 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan from January 19; the silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5570 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from January 19 [49]. - **Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the silicon manganese 01 - 05 spread was 126, up 14 from January 19 [49]. Soda Ash - **Price Data**: - **Futures Price**: On January 20, 2026, the closing price of soda ash 05 contract was 1177 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan from January 19, with a daily decline of 1.26% [62]. - **Spot Price**: On January 20, 2026, the heavy - soda market price in North China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19; the light - soda market price in North China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19 [62]. - **Basis**: On January 20, 2026, the Shahe heavy - soda basis was - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19 [62]. - **Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the 5 - 9 spread was - 61, unchanged from January 19 [62]. Glass - **Price Data**: - **Futures Price**: On January 20, 2026, the closing price of glass 05 contract was 1056 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan from January 19, with a daily decline of 1.31% [87]. - **Basis**: On January 20, 2026, the 01 contract basis (Shahe) was - 234 yuan/ton, down 1234 yuan from January 19 [87]. - **Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the 5 - 9 spread was - 109, up 1 from January 19 [87]. - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: On January 16, 2026, the sales - to - production ratio of Shahe was 135, the sales - to - production ratio of Hubei was 90, the sales - to - production ratio of East China was 91, and the sales - to - production ratio of South China was 105 [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - Overall, the polyolefin industry is pressured by supply and seasonal demand, but the upside space may be limited due to cost support and profit compression. Attention should be paid to the substantial changes in the demand side. For PE, the HD - LLDPE spread is narrowing, and the marginal supply of the standard product (LLDPE) is expected to increase, while the demand is in the seasonal off - season. For PP, the supply - demand is weak, but the balance has improved significantly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of future maintenance plans [1]. Methanol Industry - Methanol futures are oscillating weakly. The inland supply remains high, and the traditional demand is weak, with short - term pressure. Although the port inventory has decreased slightly, the MTO demand is weak, suppressing the price rebound. The key variables are the reduction rhythm of imported resources and the process of the risk premium fading caused by geopolitical factors [2]. Rubber Industry - Overseas raw material prices for natural rubber continue to decline, weakening the bottom support. The demand has increased slightly in some semi - steel tire foreign trade orders, and the inventory in China continues to accumulate. Considering that Thailand is about to enter the production - reduction period, the decline of raw materials is expected to be limited, and the rubber price is expected to be in the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [3]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - The supply - demand of pure benzene has improved marginally, but the port inventory is still high. Styrene is strong due to export and device accidents, and the spread between styrene and pure benzene has widened. Strategies include looking for short - selling opportunities for BZ03 and narrowing the EB - BZ spread at high levels. Styrene may face inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, and its upside space is limited [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda futures are weakly oscillating. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand lacks substantial improvement, so the price is expected to be weak. PVC futures are oscillating downwards. The supply is high, the demand is affected by the festival, and the inventory continues to accumulate, so the price is expected to be weak with limited downside space [5]. Urea Industry - Urea futures have declined, and the supply is at a high level. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the progress of downstream agricultural demand and the resumption rhythm of devices [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash futures are expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term due to high supply and weak demand, and the inventory is at a high level. Glass futures are affected by real - estate data, and the supply - demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to follow the decline of the futures price [7]. Crude Oil Industry - Short - term oil prices are still affected by news, and the supply - demand expectation is weak. Brent crude oil is expected to oscillate between 60 - 66 US dollars per barrel. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [8]. LPG Industry - LPG futures prices have declined. The inventory has decreased, and the downstream PDH operating rate has decreased. The overall market is affected by supply and demand [11]. Polyester Industry - PX supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. It is expected to be high - level oscillating before the Spring Festival and low - level long - term treated in the medium term. PTA supply - demand is expected to weaken, and it is expected to follow the raw materials. MEG is expected to accumulate a large amount of inventory, and the price is under pressure. Short - fiber is weakly oscillating following the raw materials. Polyester bottle - chip supply is expected to decline, and it follows the cost [13]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 have all declined to varying degrees [1]. - **Spreads**: The L59 spread has decreased, the PP59 spread has increased, and the LP05 spread has decreased [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of华东PP拉丝,华北LLDPE, and other products have declined [1]. - **Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate and downstream weighted operating rate have decreased, while the PP device operating rate has increased slightly, and the PP powder operating rate has decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: The PE and PP enterprise and social inventories have decreased [1]. Methanol Industry - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of MA2605 and MA2609 have declined [2]. - **Spreads**: The MA59 spread has increased significantly [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of methanol in various regions have declined [2]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory has increased slightly, while the port and social inventories have decreased [2]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic and overseas enterprise operating rates have decreased slightly, and the downstream MTO and other operating rates have changed to varying degrees [2]. Rubber Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices of natural rubber products such as云南国营全乳胶 and泰标混合 rubber have declined, and the basis has changed [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 and 5 - 9 spreads have changed [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, etc. has changed, and the operating rates of automobile tires and the production and export of domestic tires have increased [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in China has continued to accumulate [3]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent crude oil and other products have changed, and the spreads between pure benzene and other products have also changed [4]. - **Benzene and Styrene Prices and Spreads**: The prices of benzene and styrene have increased, and the spreads between them have changed [4]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of downstream products such as phenol and caprolactam have changed [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports have decreased [4]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain have changed [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda products have changed to varying degrees [5]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda have changed [5]. - **Supply**: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries have increased slightly, and the profits have changed [5]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of the downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have changed [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of caustic soda and PVC have changed [5]. Urea Industry - **Futures Prices and Positions**: The futures prices of urea have declined, and the positions of the top 20 long and short have changed [6]. - **Raw Material and Spot Prices**: The prices of upstream raw materials and urea spot have changed [6]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads and basis of urea have changed [6]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of downstream products such as melamine and compound fertilizer have changed [6]. - **Supply - Demand**: The daily and weekly production, inventory, and operating rate of urea have changed [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass and soda ash products and their spreads have changed [7]. - **Supply - Demand**: The operating rates, production, and inventory of glass and soda ash have changed [7]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil and their spreads have changed [8]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of refined oil products have changed [8]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of refined oil products have changed [8]. LPG Industry - **LPG Prices and Spreads**: The prices of LPG futures and spot have declined, and the spreads have changed [11]. - **External Prices**: The external prices of LPG have declined slightly [11]. - **Inventory**: The LPG inventory has decreased [11]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream and downstream operating rates of LPG have changed [11]. Polyester Industry - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices and cash flows of downstream polyester products have changed [13]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PX have changed [13]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PTA have changed [13]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of MEG have changed [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various industries in the polyester industry chain have changed [13].

Oil Market - WTI prices were not available due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday, while Brent crude for March closed at $63.94 per barrel, down $0.19, a decrease of 0.30% [2][15] - Domestic crude oil production in China for 2025 is projected to be 21,605 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, with processing volume at 73,759 million tons, up 4.1% [2][15] - The market is currently experiencing a seasonal decline in diesel and gasoline demand, with oil prices showing no significant driving force, maintaining a volatile trend [2][15] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil (FU2603) rose by 0.12% to 2,538 yuan per ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil (LU2603) increased by 0.07% to 3,060 yuan per ton [16] - Supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is expected to be sufficient, with Singapore receiving approximately 290-300 million tons in January, up from 260-270 million tons in December [16] - The geopolitical situation in Iran continues to significantly impact oil prices, with fluctuations expected to follow oil price movements [16][4] Asphalt - The main contract for asphalt (BU2602) increased by 0.29% to 3,142 yuan per ton, with concerns over raw material supply easing slightly [17] - The market is currently facing a "weak demand reality" against a backdrop of "strong cost expectations," particularly as winter weather impacts demand [17] Rubber - The main contract for rubber (RU2605) fell by 90 yuan per ton to 15,745 yuan per ton, with NR and BR contracts also experiencing declines [18] - China's rubber tire exports for 2025 are expected to reach 9.65 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [18] - Inventory levels for natural rubber in Qingdao increased, indicating a seasonal accumulation trend [18] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5,030 yuan per ton, up 0.24%, while EG2605 fell by 1.08% to 3,755 yuan per ton [19] - PX futures closed at 7,106 yuan per ton, with a slight increase of 0.28%, and the market is expected to see some support due to supply reductions [19] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were reported at 2,207 yuan per ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $262 to $266 per ton [21] - Domestic supply remains stable, but demand is under pressure due to reduced operating rates in MTO facilities [21] Polyolefins - Polypropylene prices are under pressure, with production margins for various methods showing negative values [22] - Demand is expected to recover slightly in early January, but inventory levels are anticipated to rise as the month progresses [22] PVC - PVC prices have decreased, with the market experiencing a supply-demand imbalance and overall bearish sentiment [23] - The upcoming end of export tax rebates is expected to increase upward pressure on long-term contracts [23] Urea - Urea futures prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 1,772 yuan per ton, down 1.45% [24] - Market sentiment is declining, with production rates and demand showing signs of weakness ahead of the Spring Festival [24] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices are fluctuating, with the main contract closing at 1,192 yuan per ton, down 0.33% [25] - The industry is facing pressure from supply and demand dynamics, with cautious sentiment prevailing in the market [25] Glass - Glass futures prices fell significantly, with the main contract closing at 1,070 yuan per ton, down 2.9% [26] - The market is experiencing a supply recovery, but demand remains cautious, leading to a bearish outlook [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals in the off - season are lackluster, and the market is expected to continue its weak adjustment in the short term. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream restocking intensity. In January, the resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to boost the restocking expectation, and there is an expectation of a low - level upward movement in the prices of furnace materials [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The expected increase in supply and inventory pressure are gradually rising. There are still expectations of disturbances on the supply side due to weather. The pre - holiday restocking on the demand side supports the ore price. The supply and demand on the ground still need verification, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply of scrap steel is low, the electric furnace profit is acceptable, and the daily consumption keeps increasing, which supports the demand. The overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent, and the spot price is expected to oscillate [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The cost side of coke has stabilized and rebounded, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As the mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually starts, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, and the spot price increase is expected to be implemented. The futures market is expected to follow the trend of coking coal [2]. - **Coking Coal**: As the Chinese New Year approaches, the intensity of winter restocking gradually increases, and the subsequent coal mine supply will gradually decline due to the holiday. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the spot price still has upward momentum. However, after the previous rally, the driving force for the futures market to continue rising is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [2]. 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost push of manganese silicon is relatively weak, the market supply - demand pattern is loose, and the de - stocking pressure is large. The upward space of the futures price is limited. However, the current futures price valuation is low, and under the high - cost support, the risk of excessive short - selling should be guarded against [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: Currently, the silicon iron market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental contradiction is relatively limited. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the trend of the sector [3]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of disturbances in glass supply, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of supply surplus will further intensify, the price center will still decline, and capacity de - stocking will be promoted [3]. 3.5 Specific Product Analysis - **Steel**: The cost support is weakening, and the futures market is under pressure. The spot market trading is weak, the steel mill复产 rhythm slows down, the iron water output decreases, and the five major steel products' output growth slows down. The demand still has resilience, but there is seasonal weakening pressure later. The inventory is still being de - stocked, but the de - stocking speed is not obvious, and the inventory level is moderately high. It is expected to be under pressure in the short term [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The market sentiment has declined, with both shipments and arrivals decreasing. Overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, arrivals have declined, and the supply side is expected to be disturbed by weather. The demand side has rigid support, and steel mills are restocking with weak enthusiasm. The port inventory is accumulating, and the supply pressure expectation has increased. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival volume has increased significantly, and the supply has recovered. The electric furnace profit is acceptable, and the daily consumption also keeps increasing, supporting the demand. The supply and demand are both increasing, and the overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent. The spot price is expected to oscillate following the finished products [10]. - **Coke**: The steel mill's rigid demand has declined, and the implementation of the price increase has been postponed. The cost side support is strong, but the steel mill's iron water output has slightly decreased, so the price increase implementation is delayed. The futures market is expected to follow the trend of coking coal [11]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is rising well, and the futures market is oscillating. The domestic supply is stable, and the Mongolian coal import has recovered. The demand side has seen an increase in winter restocking by coking enterprises, and the upstream coal mine inventory has been continuously digested. The spot price still has upward momentum, but the futures market's upward driving force is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [12]. - **Glass**: The futures price has corrected, and the spot and futures markets have started to sell. The supply is expected to decline in the long term, but it is difficult to have a large - scale cold repair in the short term. The demand is weak year - on - year, and the large inventory in the middle reaches always suppresses the glass valuation. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, it will oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price has fallen at a low level, and the futures premium has decreased. The supply and demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. The downstream demand is showing a downward trend, and the dynamic surplus expectation is further intensifying. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the price center will decline in the long run [13]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost support is loosening, and the de - stocking pressure still exists. The cost push is weak, the supply pressure is large, and the futures price is running weakly. The demand support in the off - season is limited, and the supply is difficult to achieve high - level inventory digestion. The upward space of the futures price is limited, but excessive short - selling risks should be guarded against [15]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and it follows the sector's weakening. The market has weak supply and demand, and the overall contradiction is limited. The cost is at a relatively high level, which supports the price bottom. The demand support in the off - season is limited, and the supply is at a low level. In the short term, the futures market is expected to follow the black sector, and the downward space is limited [17]. 3.6 Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2417.77, up 0.01%; the commodity 20 index is 2779.78, up 0.20%; the industrial products index is 2316.27, down 0.28% [103]. - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index on January 19, 2026, has a daily increase or decrease of - 0.82%, a five - day increase or decrease of - 1.37%, a one - month increase or decrease of + 1.16%, and an increase or decrease since the beginning of the year of + 1.07% [105].

Core Viewpoint - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) has optimized the delivery system for soda ash futures through two major initiatives: expanding the delivery area and standardizing the delivery model, which enhances the precision of futures services for the soda ash industry and injects financial momentum for high-quality development [1][5]. Group 1: Delivery System Optimization - The optimization of the delivery system is a practical measure that aligns the futures market with industry realities, improving service quality [1]. - By 2025, Shandong, Tianjin, and Jiangsu will account for 27% of the national soda ash production capacity and 15% of consumption, with Shandong being the second-largest consumer in the country [1]. - The expansion of the delivery area to include Shandong, Tianjin, and Jiangsu will effectively increase the supply of delivery sources and enhance liquidity in the futures market [1][2]. Group 2: Support for Green Industry Development - Soda ash is a key raw material for photovoltaic glass production, with Jiangsu, Anhui, and Zhejiang regions housing about 60% of the national photovoltaic glass capacity [2]. - The optimized delivery system will allow futures services to cover 74% of the photovoltaic glass production capacity, facilitating procurement for regional photovoltaic glass companies [2]. Group 3: Efficiency Improvements - The standardization of the delivery model enhances efficiency by unifying the delivery points for production-type warehouses to fixed locations, similar to trade warehouses [3]. - This change simplifies the delivery process, reduces overall delivery costs, and aligns with market trends of "inventory front-loading" [3][4]. - The expansion of the delivery area and the optimization of the delivery model are expected to significantly lower transportation costs for companies involved in soda ash futures [4]. Group 4: Industry Impact and Future Outlook - Industry experts recognize that the optimization of the delivery system addresses practical pain points for industry participants and enhances the market influence of soda ash futures prices [5]. - The ZCE plans to continuously monitor industry developments and further optimize the delivery system to promote the integration of the soda ash spot and futures markets [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the soda ash industry is "shockingly weak in the short term" [1] Core View of the Report - Despite short - term support from news and a slight recovery in rigid demand, due to the intensifying contradiction of supply surplus in the industry, the recommended strategy is to go short on rebounds. Future attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment changes [4] Summary According to the Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The main soda ash contract opened lower and closed higher, with slightly stronger intraday fluctuations. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands showed a short - term shockingly weak signal. The trading volume decreased by 28,783 lots and the open interest decreased by 38,955 lots compared to the previous day. The intraday high was 1215, the low was 1186, and the closing price was 1192, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot market**: It was running stably. Enterprise equipment was adjusted with production declines at Jiangsu Jingshen and short - term shutdown at Lianyungang Alkali Industry, leading to a narrow decline in overall output. Downstream demand was average, with customers purchasing on - demand at low prices. There was a lack of substantial support in the short - term market, and prices were adjusted stably [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 58 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 15, domestic soda ash production was 775,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,700 tons or 2.88%. Light soda ash production was 361,500 tons, up 12,400 tons month - on - month; heavy soda ash production was 413,800 tons, up 9,300 tons month - on - month. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.82%, up 2.43% from the previous week. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 89.95%, down 0.46% month - on - month; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 78.88%, up 4.77% month - on - month. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of over one million tons was 89.47%, up 1.32% month - on - month [2] - **Inventory**: As of January 19, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,544,200 tons, a decrease of 30,800 tons or 1.96% from the previous Thursday. Light soda ash inventory was 822,600 tons, down 14,400 tons month - on - month; heavy soda ash inventory was 721,600 tons, down 16,400 tons month - on - month [2] - **Demand**: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 773,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.20%. The overall shipment rate was 99.70%, up 21.52 percentage points month - on - month. Downstream demand for soda ash was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. Light soda ash demand was relatively stable, while the rigid demand for heavy soda ash weakened due to the cold repair of glass production lines [2][3] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information, the theoretical profit of the co - production method (double - ton) was - 44 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 96.3 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 66.46%. During the week, the price of raw material rock salt was stable, while the price of thermal coal increased, leading to higher costs [3] Main Logic Summary - The current high capacity utilization rate of soda ash and the gradual release of new capacity have led to a continuous increase in overall production. The slowdown of short - term glass cold - repair has slightly restored the rigid demand for soda ash. With continuous losses and the boost of last week's news, there is some short - term support. However, considering the intensifying supply - surplus contradiction in the industry, the strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended [4]

Industry Investment Ratings - Macrofinance: Index (Long-term bullish, short-term shock adjustment), Treasury bonds (Shock), Copper (Shock), Aluminum (Shock), Alumina (Shock), Zinc (Shock), Nickel (High-level shock), Stainless steel (High-level shock), Tin (Potential for increase), Precious metals (High-level wide-range shock), Industrial silicon and polysilicon (Bearish), Lithium carbonate (No clear rating), Rebar (Shock), Iron ore (Shock), Coke (Shock), Coking coal (Bullish), Anthracite (Bullish), Palm oil (Shock), Soybean oil (Bullish), Rapeseed oil (Bearish), Cotton (Shock), Sugar (Bearish), Corn (Shock), Soybeans (Bearish), Pulp (Shock), Logs (Shock), Live pigs (Shock), Fuel oil (Shock), Bitumen (Shock), BR rubber (Bullish), PTA (Shock), Ethylene glycol (Shock), Styrene (Bearish), Urea (Shock), PF (Shock), PVC (Shock), LPG (Bullish), Container shipping European line (Shock) [1] Core Views - The policy aims for a "slow bull" in the stock index rather than suppressing the market. The short-term shock adjustment space is expected to be limited, and long-term bulls can choose opportunities to layout. Asset shortages and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. The downstream demand is relatively pressured, and with the US suspending the tax on key minerals, the short-term concern about copper hoarding has eased, causing copper prices to fall from high levels. The supply of nickel ore remains tight, but the continuous accumulation of global nickel inventories may restrict the rise of nickel prices. The prices of precious metals are expected to shift to high-level wide-range shocks. The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are bearish. The prices of black metals are affected by weak reality and strong expectations. The prices of agricultural products are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and weather. The prices of energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical situations, and cost support [1] Summary by Directory Macrofinance - Index: The stock index rose strongly in the first half of the week and then adjusted with policy regulation. The short-term shock adjustment space is limited, and long-term bulls can choose opportunities to layout [1] - Treasury bonds: Asset shortages and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Pay attention to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper: The downstream demand is relatively pressured, and with the US suspending the tax on key minerals, the short-term concern about copper hoarding has eased, causing copper prices to fall from high levels [1] - Aluminum: The recent industrial drive is limited, and the macro sentiment has weakened, causing aluminum prices to fall from high levels [1] - Alumina: The alumina production capacity still has a large release space, and the industrial side weakens the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1] - Zinc: The cost center of the zinc fundamentals is stable, but the inventory pressure is obvious. The current price has insufficient fundamental support, and the zinc price fluctuates in a range under the repeated macro sentiment [1] - Nickel: The supply of nickel ore remains tight, but the continuous accumulation of global nickel inventories may restrict the rise of nickel prices. The short-term nickel price fluctuates at a high level and is still affected by the resonance of the non-ferrous metal sector. It is recommended to pay attention to the policy changes in Indonesia, the macro sentiment, and the futures positions [1] - Stainless steel: The price of raw material nickel iron continues to rise, the social inventory of stainless steel decreases slightly, and the steel mill's production schedule in January increases. Pay attention to the actual production situation of the steel mill. The stainless steel futures fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to go long at low levels in the short term [1] - Tin: The short-term macro sentiment is repeated, and the tin price has corrected. However, the supply vulnerability of tin ore still exists, and it still has the driving force to rise. Pay attention to the opportunity of low absorption [1] - Precious metals: The geopolitical situation has cooled down, and the rise of precious metal prices has slowed down. The silver price has fallen under pressure. The short-term gold and silver prices are expected to shift to high-level wide-range shocks. In the long term, it is recommended to allocate platinum at low levels or choose the arbitrage strategy of [long platinum, short palladium] [1] Black Metals - Rebar: The expectation is strong, but the spot is weak, and the sentiment transmission to the spot is not smooth. The continuous rise kinetic energy is insufficient. Unilaterally long orders should leave the market and wait and see; participate in the positive arbitrage position in the spot and futures [1] - Iron ore: The sector rotates, but the upper pressure of iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long at this position. The weak reality and strong expectation are intertwined. The actual supply and demand continue to be weak, and the energy consumption double control and anti-involution may disturb the supply [1] - Coke: The short-term market sentiment warms up, and the supply and demand are supported, but the medium-term supply and demand continue to be surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - Coking coal: If the expectation of "capacity reduction" continues to ferment and the spot replenishes the inventory before the Spring Festival, coking coal may still have room to rise, but the actual rise space is difficult to judge, and the volatility increases after a large rise. It is necessary to be cautious [1] - Anthracite: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural Products - Cotton: The domestic new crop production expectation is strong, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream start-up maintains a low level, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "supported but no driving force." Pay attention to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document on direct subsidy prices and cotton planting areas in the first quarter of next year, the intention of cotton planting areas next year, the weather during the planting period, and the peak season demand from March to April [1] - Sugar: The global sugar is in surplus, and the domestic new crop supply increases. The short consensus is relatively consistent. If the disk continues to fall, the lower cost support is strong, but the short-term fundamentals lack continuous driving force. Pay attention to the changes in the capital side [1] - Corn: The grain sales progress of Northeast corn is relatively fast, the port inventory is low, and the middle and lower reaches have a certain replenishment demand before the festival. The short-term spot is still relatively strong, and the disk is expected to fluctuate in a range [1] - Soybeans: With the progress of the Brazilian harvest, the Brazilian CNF premium is expected to reflect the selling pressure of the soybean harvest. Coupled with the pressure on the rapeseed sector from the Sino-Canadian easing, the MO5 is expected to be under pressure, and the MO5 - M09 is expected to be in a reverse arbitrage [1] - Pulp: The pulp fell today due to the decline of the commodity macro. The overall did not break through the shock range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has recently shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding. It is expected that the further decline space of the futures price is limited. However, the external quotation in January still shows a slight decline, and the spot and futures markets of logs lack driving factors for rising. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1] - Live pigs: The spot and futures of live pigs gradually stabilize. The demand support and the unsold slaughter weight, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemical Products - Fuel oil: OPEC+ suspends production increase until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement affects. The US sanctions the Venezuelan crude oil export. The short-term supply and demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five-Year Plan rush work is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The asphalt profit is high [1] - Bitumen: The raw material cost support is strong. The spot-futures price difference rebounds greatly. The intermediate inventory increases [1] - BR rubber: The disk position decreases, and the new warehouse receipts increase. The BR increase slows down periodically. The spot leads the rise to repair the basis, and the BR continues to pay attention to the upward driving force above 12,000. The BD/BR listing price continues to be raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber narrows. The overseas cracking device capacity is cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The naphtha tax also has a positive support for the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high operation and high inventory, and the transaction center is average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber [1] - PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, and this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The PX fundamentals are indeed supported, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. The domestic PTA maintains high operation. The gasoline price difference is still at a high level, which supports the aromatics [1] - Ethylene glycol: The market spreads the news that two sets of MEG devices in Taiwan, China, with a total annual production capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline due to the stimulation of supply-side news. The current polyester downstream start-up rate maintains above 90%, and the demand performance slightly exceeds expectations [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. The suppliers are reluctant to reduce prices due to continuous losses, while the buyers insist on pressing prices due to the weak downstream polymer demand and profit compression. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a bullish sentiment due to the export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward driving force needs to pay attention to the drive of the overseas market [1] - Urea: The export sentiment eases slightly, and the domestic demand is insufficient. The upper space is limited. The lower has the support of anti-involution and the cost side [1] - PF: The geopolitical conflict intensifies, and the crude oil has a rising risk. The maintenance decreases, and the operation load is at a high level. The long-distance arrival increases the supply. The downstream demand operation weakens. The price returns to a reasonable range [1] - PVC: There is less global production in 2026, and the future expectation is optimistic. The fundamentals are poor. The export tax rebate is cancelled, and there may be a phenomenon of rushing to export later. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, forcing the PVC production capacity to be cleared [1] - LPG: The January CP rises unexpectedly, and the cost support of imported gas is strong. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East escalates, and the short-term risk premium rises. The EIA weekly C3 inventory accumulation trend slows down, and it is expected to gradually turn to destocking. The domestic port inventory also decreases [1] - Container shipping European line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. The airlines are still cautious in their tentative re-navigation. The pre-festival replenishment demand still exists [1]