News Summary Core Viewpoint - The supply of soda ash is under pressure due to production reductions and new capacity coming online, which may lead to a supply-demand imbalance in the future [1][3][4]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - On September 15, several soda ash production facilities in China, including those of Henan Haohua Junhua and Zhongyan Anhui Hongsifang, reduced output, while Chongqing Heyou Industrial's facility operated at reduced capacity [1]. - The Alashan natural soda development project is set to add 2.8 million tons of soda ash and 400,000 tons of sodium bicarbonate, potentially becoming the largest natural soda production base globally [1]. Group 2: Market Conditions - As of September 15, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange reported a decrease in soda ash futures warehouse receipts, down to 10,096 contracts, a reduction of 666 contracts from the previous trading day [2]. - Ningzheng Futures noted that the domestic soda ash market is stabilizing, with high production levels and steady downstream demand, leading to a low-price replenishment strategy [3]. - Donghai Futures indicated that while soda ash production increased week-on-week, the overall supply pressure remains, with new installations expected in Q4, contributing to a supply surplus that is likely to suppress prices [4].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-9-15 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋 势，终端需求一般，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1200元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1290元/吨，基差为-90元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存179.75万吨，较前一周减少1.35%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、年内检修高峰期来临，产量预计将有所下滑。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Black Series Weekly Report - Report Date: 9/12/2025 - Author: Shi Lei, Shi Zhuoran [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Mid - long term: The rebar 01 contract mainly oscillated at a low level this week. Steel mills have fully resumed production, and the supply of rebar is expected to increase. The PPI continued to decline in August but the decline narrowed, the PMI data was still below the boom - bust line, and the real estate data remained weak, lacking support on the finished product demand side. The new policy proposed by the Guinean government regarding the Simandou iron ore development has a shrinking impact. The daily average hot metal output has significantly increased, strengthening the support on the iron ore demand side, and it will continue to oscillate in the short term. For glass, the start - up rate was flat with last week, the weekly output increased, the factory inventory decreased, and the demand side recovered slowly. For soda ash, the factory inventory continued to decline, with mainly rigid demand procurement from downstream, and the improvement in the supply - demand fundamentals was limited, and the main contract oscillated weakly and steadily [64][68]. - Short term: Recently, the main contracts of the black series mainly oscillated within a range. Pay attention to the demand start - up situation during the "Golden September and Silver October". This week, the fundamentals of glass and soda ash improved limitedly, and the disk continued to consolidate at the bottom [65][69]. Summary by Directory Black Series Weekly Market Review - Rebar (RB2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 3143.0 on 9/5/2025 to 3127.0 on 9/12/2025, a decrease of 16.0 (-0.5%), the spot price was 3220.0, and the basis was 93.0 [3]. - Hot - rolled coil (HC2601): The closing price of the futures main contract increased from 3340.0 on 9/5/2025 to 3364.0 on 9/12/2025, an increase of 24.0 (0.7%), the spot price was 3400.0, and the basis was 36.0 [3]. - Iron ore (I2601): The closing price of the futures main contract increased from 789.5 on 9/5/2025 to 799.5 on 9/12/2025, an increase of 10.0 (1.3%), the spot price was 796.0, and the basis was - 3.5 [3]. - Coke (J2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1646.5 on 9/5/2025 to 1625.5 on 9/12/2025, a decrease of 21.0 (-1.3%), the spot price was 1620.0, and the basis was - 5.5 [3]. - Coking coal (JM2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1158.5 on 9/5/2025 to 1144.5 on 9/12/2025, a decrease of 14.0 (-1.2%), the spot price was 1280.0, and the basis was 135.5 [3]. - Glass (FG601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1189.0 on 9/5/2025 to 1180.0 on 9/12/2025, a decrease of 9.0 (-0.8%), the spot price was 1240.0, and the basis was 60.0 [3]. - Soda ash (SA601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1302.0 on 9/5/2025 to 1290.0 on 9/12/2025, a decrease of 12.0 (-0.9%), the spot price was 1280.9, and the basis was - 9.1 [3]. Rebar - Profit: On September 11, the rebar blast furnace profit was - 23 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton compared with September 4 [7]. - Supply: As of 9/12/2025, the blast furnace start - up rate was 83.83%, an increase of 3.43 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4055 million tons, an increase of 117,100 tons; the rebar output was 2.1193 million tons, a decrease of 67,500 tons [12]. - Demand: In the week of September 12, the apparent consumption of rebar was 1.9807 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons compared with the previous week; as of September 11, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 91,912 tons [17]. - Inventory: In the week of September 12, the social inventory of rebar was 4.8723 million tons, an increase of 185,700 tons compared with the previous week; the factory inventory was 1.6663 million tons, a decrease of 47,100 tons [22]. Iron Ore - Supply: In the week of September 5, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2.7562 million tons, a decrease of 800,600 tons compared with the previous week; the arrival volume at 47 ports in the country was 2.5729 million tons, a decrease of 72,100 tons [27]. - Inventory: In the week of September 12, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 14.45612 million tons, an increase of 30,400 tons compared with the previous week; the inventory of imported iron ore of 247 steel enterprises was 8.99305 million tons, an increase of 53,180 tons [30]. - Demand: In the week of September 12, the daily average port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 344,390 tons, an increase of 14,060 tons compared with the previous week; as of September 11, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 112,400 tons [35]. Float Glass - Supply: In the week of September 12, the number of float glass production lines in operation was 225, the same as last week; the weekly output was 1.121225 million tons, an increase of 4,200 tons compared with the previous week; as of September 11, the capacity utilization rate was 80.08%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points; the start - up rate was 76.01%, the same as last week [38]. - Inventory: In the week of September 12, the factory inventory of float glass was 61.583 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.467 million weight boxes compared with September 5; the available days of factory inventory were 26.3 days, a decrease of 0.6 days compared with the previous week [43]. - Demand: As of September 1, the order days of glass deep - processing downstream manufacturers were 10.4 days [47]. Soda Ash - Supply: In the week of September 12, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 87.29%, an increase of 1.07 percentage points compared with last week; the output was 761,100 tons, an increase of 9,400 tons compared with the previous week [52]. - Inventory: As of September 12, the factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 24,600 tons compared with the previous week [57]. - Sales - to - production ratio: As of September 12, the sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 103.23%, a decrease of 2.81 percentage points compared with the previous week [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. A - shares may enter a high - level shock pattern after a large increase, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental drive is needed to choose a direction. The bond market shows a differentiated trend with the long - end being weak and the short - end being strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation. Silver is in the $40 - 42 range for short - term trading [2]. - The shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and a 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as falling apparent demand and coking coal resumption. Iron ore prices are strong, while coking coal and coke prices are weak [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts heats up again. The prices of base metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are affected by different factors [2]. - The oil market is worried about marginal supply increments, dragging oil prices down. The chemical products market has different supply - demand situations and price trends [2]. - The agricultural products market is affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends for different varieties [2]. - Special commodities like soda ash, glass, and rubber have different market performances and trading suggestions [2]. - In the new energy sector, polysilicon has a rising price due to increasing production cut expectations, and lithium carbonate maintains a tight balance [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: After a large increase, A - shares may enter a high - level shock. Sell near - month put options at support levels to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate is at a critical point. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and focus on changes in the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: For gold, buy cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money options. For silver, conduct short - term band trading in the $40 - 42 range and sell out - of - the - money options at high volatility [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are suppressed. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy iron ore 2601 contracts at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and consider an iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Sell coking coal 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170, and the iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy is favorable [2]. - **Coke**: Sell coke 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650, and the iron ore - coke long - short strategy is favorable [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The futures price is close to the mainstream cost range, and the short - term downward space is limited. The main contract reference range is 79500 - 81500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Alloys**: Aluminum prices are affected by macro - factors and cost support, with different reference ranges for different contracts [2]. - **Zinc**: The expectation of interest rate cuts improves, boosting zinc prices. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [2]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals remain strong, and the tin price is in a high - level shock. The operating range is 285000 - 265000 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about marginal supply increments drag oil prices down. Adopt a short - side strategy and pay attention to support levels [2]. - **Urea**: High short - term supply pressure drags down the price. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and pay attention to the support level of 1630 - 1650 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX and PTA**: The supply - demand expectations in September are different, and the prices are in a shock range. For PTA, consider a TA1 - 5 rolling reverse spread strategy [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Each chemical product has different supply - demand situations and trading suggestions, such as short - fiber, bottle - grade polyester, ethylene glycol, etc. [2] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Different grains and oils are affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends and trading suggestions [2]. - **Sugar and Cotton**: Sugar prices are affected by overseas supply prospects, and cotton has low old - crop inventories, with different trading suggestions [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: The livestock and poultry products market is affected by factors such as supply - demand contradictions and sales rhythms, with different price trends [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: The market lacks a main trading logic and is in a narrow - range shock. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: The market is affected by production lines and spot market sentiment. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Rubber**: The macro - sentiment fades, and rubber prices are in a shock - down trend. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Due to increasing production cut expectations, the price is rising. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market maintains a tight balance. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy, and the main contract reference range is 70000 - 72000 yuan [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report notes that most commodity futures rose, and small - and mid - cap stock index futures had good gains. In the overseas market, the US labor market shows a clear slowdown trend, and the weak non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut. In the domestic market, the PPI is expected to see a slight increase in the central value, while the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level. Short - term domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the situation is generally favorable for gold. Long - term US fundamentals are fair, and a weak US dollar pattern continues [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4562, up 2.92% daily, 2.37% weekly, 1.24% monthly, 17.40% quarterly, and 16.35% year - to - date. The SSE 50 futures closed at 2990.2, up 1.78% daily, 1.68% weekly, 0.34% monthly, 11.20% quarterly, and 11.66% year - to - date. The CSI 500 futures closed at 7124.6, up 3.81% daily, 3.28% weekly, 1.83% monthly, 21.52% quarterly, and 25.11% year - to - date. The CSI 1000 futures closed at 7387.8, up 3.31% daily, 2.24% weekly, 0.29% monthly, 20.15% quarterly, and 26.32% year - to - date [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 102.41, up 0.06% daily, 0.02% weekly, - 0.01% monthly, - 0.22% quarterly, and - 0.55% year - to - date. The 5 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 105.59, up 0.16% daily, 0.00% weekly, 0.07% monthly, - 0.63% quarterly, and - 0.89% year - to - date. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 107.58, up 0.08% daily, - 0.34% weekly, - 0.21% monthly, - 1.24% quarterly, and - 1.23% year - to - date. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 114.74, down 0.02% daily, - 1.38% weekly, - 1.55% monthly, - 4.61% quarterly, and - 3.44% year - to - date [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 97.8433, unchanged daily, up 0.11% weekly, unchanged monthly, up 1.11% quarterly, and down 9.81% year - to - date. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1695, with 0 pips change daily, - 24 pips weekly, 9 pips monthly, - 93 pips quarterly, and 1342 pips year - to - date. The US dollar - yen exchange rate was 147.46, with 0 pips change daily, up 0.03% weekly, up 0.28% monthly, up 2.40% quarterly, and down 6.20% year - to - date [3]. - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at $63.75, up 1.56% daily, 2.87% weekly, - 0.41% monthly, - 1.88% quarterly, and - 11.30% year - to - date. ICE Brent crude oil was at $67.6, up 1.61% daily, 2.94% weekly, 0.21% monthly, 1.46% quarterly, and - 9.66% year - to - date. COMEX gold was at $3680.4, up 0.45% daily, 1.12% weekly, 4.67% monthly, 11.02% quarterly, and 39.45% year - to - date [3]. 3.2 Macro Situation - **Overseas Macro**: The US released August non - farm data, with only 22,000 new jobs, lower than the previous value and expectations. The labor market's downward risk has increased, and wage growth has slowed. The number of initial and continued unemployment claims shows that the labor market slowdown is becoming more obvious [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In August, the PPI rebounded from - 3.6% to - 2.9% year - on - year, while the CPI dropped from 0% to - 0.4% year - on - year. The tail - wagging effect had a large impact, and food prices dragged down the CPI. The PPI's month - on - month rebound to 0 and the core CPI's rise to 0.9% indicate that domestic policies are starting to take effect. The PPI central value is expected to rise slightly, and the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level [6]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Short - term**: Domestic assets mainly present structural opportunities. The market sentiment has cooled down after important domestic events this week. In the overseas market, the weak US non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is favorable for gold. - **Long - term**: The US fundamentals are fair, and interest rate cuts are expected to boost the fundamentals. The weak US dollar pattern continues, and investors should be vigilant about volatility spikes and focus on non - US dollar assets [6]. 3.4 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures should adopt a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences; stock index options should continue the hedging and defensive strategy; the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term for Treasury bond futures. All are expected to be in a volatile state [7]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner, as the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US increases, and the risk of the Fed's loss of independence expands [7]. - **Shipping Sector**: For the container shipping to Europe route, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Steel and iron ore are expected to be volatile, with the impact of production restrictions on steel weakening and iron ore showing an unexpected decline in molten iron production and a slight increase in port inventories [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: Despite the "anti - involution" impact, the prices of varieties in this sector are still supported during the peak season. However, most varieties are expected to be in a volatile state, such as coke starting the first - round price cut after the end of military parade - related production restrictions, and the supply of coking coal significantly decreasing [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Affected by the better - than - expected July China's import and export data, non - ferrous metals were initially boosted. However, most varieties are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as copper due to the rising risk of overseas recession [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and coking coal's decline has dragged down the chemical industry. Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as PP due to the increasing pressure of new production capacity [9]. - **Agricultural Sector**: The agricultural market is in a narrow - range volatile state, waiting for the results of field inspections. Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, such as livestock products facing a supply - demand imbalance and rubber facing pressure from previous highs [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [1] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [1] - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [3] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [3] Core Views - The steel market shows continuous inventory accumulation, and steel prices are oscillating. The glass and soda ash markets have inventory changes, and prices are also oscillating. The ferrosilicon and silicomanganese markets are affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, production area losses, and electricity prices, with prices oscillating [1][2][3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: Yesterday, the glass futures market oscillated. The main 2601 contract rose 0.51%. The weekly start - up rate of float glass enterprises was 76.01%, up 0.1% month - on - month, and the factory inventory was 61.583 million heavy cases, down 1.467 million heavy cases month - on - month. There is still a supply - demand contradiction, and short - term premium suppresses prices [1] - Soda Ash: Yesterday, the soda ash futures market oscillated upward. The main 2601 contract rose 1.26%. The production capacity utilization rate was 87.29%, up 1.07% month - on - month, the output was 761,100 tons, up 9,300 tons month - on - month, and the inventory was 1.7975 million tons, down 24,600 tons month - on - month. High production and new capacity in the fourth quarter, along with premium, suppress prices [1] - **Strategy** - Glass: Oscillating weakly [1] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [1] Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis** - Silicomanganese: Yesterday, the main contract of silicomanganese futures closed at 5,838 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot market was stable with strong wait - and - see sentiment. The supply - demand in the industry is still loose, but there are long - term losses in production areas and low manganese ore inventory. Prices follow the sector [2] - Ferrosilicon: Yesterday, the main contract of ferrosilicon futures closed at 5,626 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot market sentiment was average. The supply - demand in the industry is loose, with long - term losses in production areas and high factory inventory suppressing prices [2] - **Strategy** - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [3] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. After A - shares have accumulated significant gains, they may enter a high - level shock pattern, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental driver is needed to choose a direction. The long - end of Treasury bonds is weak while the short - end is strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as declining apparent demand and coking coal复产 [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has heated up again [2]. - There is a high supply pressure in the short - term for some energy and chemical products, and the market needs to pay attention to industrial demand rhythm [2]. - For agricultural products, there are different supply - demand situations, such as the abundant supply expectation for sugar and the low inventory of old - crop cotton [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index has a volume - increasing rise with the resonance of technology and finance. It is recommended to sell near - month put options at the support level to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: Uncertain about the direction, investors are advised to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold should be bought cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money gold options. Silver should be traded in the range of 40 - 42 dollars and sell out - of - the money options at high volatility [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Consider the 12 - 10 spread arbitrage as the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. Black - **Steel**: It is recommended to wait and see due to factors suppressing steel prices [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy the iron ore 2601 contract at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Short the coking coal 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170 [2]. - **Coke**: Short the coke 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650 [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Adopt a short - side thinking, with support levels for WTI at [61, 62], Brent at [64, 65], and SC at [465, 475] [2]. - **Urea**: Wait and see as the short - term high - supply pressure drags down the market [2]. - **PX**: Treat the short - term oscillation in the range of 6600 - 6900 [2]. - **PTA**: Oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800 in the short - term and conduct TA1 - 5 rolling reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Short - fiber**: Follow the raw materials, with the processing fee oscillating in the range of 800 - 1100 [2]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand may both decline in September, and the processing fee fluctuates in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Look for EG1 - 5 reverse arbitrage opportunities [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: Wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: Hold short positions [2]. - **Pure Benzene**: Follow styrene and oil prices in the short - term [2]. - **Styrene**: Do low - buying operations on EB10 and expand the EB11 - BZ11 spread at a low level [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price fluctuates in the range of 11400 - 12500 [2]. - **LLDPE**: Oscillate in the short - term [2]. - **PP**: Stop profit on short positions at 6950 - 7000 [2]. - **Methanol**: Conduct range operations in the range of 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural - **Soybean Meal**: Operate in the range of 3050 - 3150 for the 01 contract [2]. - **Hog**: The market has limited supply - demand contradictions, and pay attention to the subsequent slaughter rhythm [2]. - **Corn**: Short at high prices [2]. - **Oil**: The short - term P main contract may test the 9000 support [2]. - **Sugar**: Pay attention to the support at around 5500 [2]. - **Cotton**: Wait and see on a single - side basis [2]. - **Egg**: Control the position of previous short positions as the market rebounds [2]. - **Apple**: The main contract runs around 8100 [2]. - **Jujube**: The main contract fluctuates around 11000 [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: Short on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: Wait and see and pay attention to the spot market sentiment during the peak season [2]. - **Rubber**: Wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price may fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton, and pay attention to the silicon industry conference [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Wait and see as the production cut expectation rises and the price increases [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Wait and see mainly, with the main contract running around 7 - 7.2 million [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Neutral" rating to the black building materials industry, with a mid - term outlook of "Oscillation" [7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the traditional peak season deepens, the failure of the building materials peak season has intensified the differentiation between furnace materials and finished products. Furnace materials are stronger than building materials due to strong real - demand and restocking expectations, and provide cost support for building materials. The intra - sector differentiation and overall price support are expected to remain [7]. - The steel inventory is at a moderately high level, and the fundamental contradictions are still accumulating. The fundamentals of rebar are weaker than those of hot - rolled coils. The market is still cautious about the peak - season demand. However, with the restoration of hot metal and pre - National Day restocking demand, it may support the futures prices, but rebar is expected to perform weaker than hot - rolled coils [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron and Steel - **Core Logic**: The spot market trading volume of steel is weak, with rigid - demand purchases at low prices. The trading volume of building steel is weaker than that of hot - rolled coils. Due to shrinking profits, some steel mills have shut down for maintenance. The production of rebar has decreased, and demand has declined, with inventory pressure in Hangzhou. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have returned to pre - parade levels, with improved downstream purchasing sentiment and inventory destocking. The supply of the five major steel products has decreased while demand has increased, and inventory is still accumulating but at a slower pace [8]. - **Outlook**: The steel inventory is moderately high, and fundamental contradictions are accumulating. The fundamentals of rebar are weaker than those of hot - rolled coils. The market is cautious about peak - season demand. However, with the restoration of hot metal and pre - National Day restocking demand, it may support the futures prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on rebar [8]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Core Logic**: Port trading volume has increased. Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports have decreased, mainly due to port maintenance in Brazil, which is expected to have little impact on annual shipments. The hot - metal production has recovered to over 2.4 million tons per day, supporting short - term demand. The port inventory has increased, the berthing inventory has decreased, and the in - plant inventory has slightly replenished, with the total inventory slightly decreasing and the overall inventory at a moderate level [9]. - **Outlook**: The demand for iron ore has recovered to a high level, and the in - plant inventory is low. There is an expectation of pre - festival restocking in the middle and late period. The fundamentals are healthy, but the peak - season demand of the finished - product end needs further verification, limiting the upside space of iron ore. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [9]. 3.3 Scrap Steel - **Core Logic**: The supply of scrap steel has slightly decreased, and the demand has increased slightly. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process production has increased slightly, and the factory inventory has slightly decreased, with the available inventory days at a low level [11]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are not prominent. The pressure on finished - product prices has led to low EAF profits, but resources are still tight. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [11]. 3.4 Coke - **Core Logic**: The supply and demand of coke have both increased, with daily production reaching a three - month high and total inventory slightly increasing. Although the supply is becoming more relaxed, the current supply - demand contradiction is acceptable. Steel mills still have restocking needs during peak - season production. After the futures market has priced in two rounds of price cuts, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Outlook**: The supply of coke has recovered more than expected, but the hot - metal production has also recovered rapidly. Steel mills still have restocking needs during peak - season production. After two rounds of price cuts have been priced in the futures market, the price is expected to remain oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of downstream steel mills and the hot - metal production during the peak season [12]. 3.5 Coking Coal - **Core Logic**: The supply of coking coal has basically recovered, with domestic coal mines resuming production and high - level imports from Mongolia. The demand for coking coal is high due to the high - level production of coke. However, after the previous restocking, the current procurement is mostly on - demand, and the spot market is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the extent of coal - mine复产 [12]. - **Outlook**: After the parade, coal mines have quickly resumed production and are expected to maintain a stable production rhythm. With the arrival of the downstream demand peak season and high - level coke production, the on - demand restocking will still support the coking coal price [13]. 3.6 Glass - **Core Logic**: The sentiment in the domestic commodity market has weakened, and the fundamental logic has returned as the delivery approaches. The demand is in the off - season, and the downstream lacks restocking ability. Although some upstream manufacturers have promoted sales by raising prices, the supply uncertainty has increased due to potential production - line ignitions and possible shutdowns in the Shahe area. The fundamentals are still weak, and the spot price decline may be limited, with a moderately high futures valuation [13]. - **Outlook**: The actual demand is weak, but there are expectations of the peak season and policies. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be another round of oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [13]. 3.7 Soda Ash - **Core Logic**: The upstream inventory of soda ash has decreased, but the supply is still at a high level. The long - term supply pressure remains due to un - cleared production capacity. The demand for heavy soda ash is stable with a slight increase, while the downstream of light soda ash has weak restocking sentiment. After the resolution of shipping issues, the mid - stream inventory has accumulated, and the downstream's willingness to accept goods is weak [16]. - **Outlook**: The oversupply situation of soda ash has not changed. After the futures price decline, the spot - futures trading volume has increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [16][20]. 3.8 Alloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) - **Manganese Silicon** - **Core Logic**: A new round of steel procurement has started, and the first - round inquiry price in September has decreased by 400 yuan/ton compared to the previous month. The fundamentals lack upward drivers, and although the cost and peak - season expectations support the futures price in the short term, the market supply - demand outlook is pessimistic in the long - term [4]. - **Outlook**: The short - term cost and peak - season expectations support the futures price, but there is significant downward pressure on the price in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the decline in raw - material costs [17]. - **Ferrosilicon** - **Core Logic**: The first - round inquiry price in September has decreased by 330 yuan/ton compared to the previous month. The supply has increased, and the demand from the metal - magnesium market is weak. The market supply - demand relationship has hidden concerns [4][18]. - **Outlook**: The stable cost of semi - coke and electricity provides short - term support for the ferrosilicon price. With peak - season expectations, the downward space of the futures price may be limited, but the price center is expected to decline in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the prices of finished steel products are showing a weak trend. The demand for rebar remains weak, while the demand for hot-rolled coils is relatively firm, leading to a divergence in their trends. If the demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may still decline. The raw material side is relatively strong, and the potential impacts of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions need to be continuously monitored [4]. - For iron ore, although the latest overseas shipments have significantly declined, the short-term demand support remains due to the increase in molten iron production. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the recovery of downstream demand and the speed of inventory reduction need to be continuously observed [7]. - Regarding ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, their fundamentals are not ideal, and they are likely to follow the sentiment of the black sector, especially the situation of coking coal. The operability is relatively low. The impact of the "anti-involution" policy on the black sector depends on its actual implementation and effectiveness [10][11]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, they are in a "weak reality" pattern. Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and polysilicon continues the "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The short-term market focus is on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer progress [14][16]. - In the glass and soda ash market, the price adjustment space of glass is limited, and the market has certain expectations for policy support. Soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the increase is limited by the downstream demand [18][19]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3092 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.54%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3334 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.23%) from the previous trading day [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The demand for rebar continues to be sluggish, with high inventory pressure. The production of hot-rolled coils has increased, and the apparent demand is relatively good, with a slight reduction in inventory. The profit of steel mills is gradually narrowing, and the weakness of the futures market is becoming more prominent [4]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 795.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.18% (-9.50). The position changed by -5590 hands to 53.90 million hands. The weighted position was 85.28 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.54 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.30% [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Overseas shipments have significantly declined, mainly due to port berth maintenance. The short-term demand support remains due to the increase in molten iron production. The port and steel mill inventories have slightly increased, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Data**: The spot price of 6517 silicomanganese was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed down 0.04% at 5626 yuan/ton [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Their fundamentals are not ideal, and they are likely to follow the sentiment of the black sector, especially the situation of coking coal. The operability is relatively low. The impact of the "anti-involution" policy depends on its actual implementation and effectiveness [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract (SI2511) was 8740 yuan/ton, up 0.87% (+75). The weighted contract position changed by 13190 hands to 498655 hands. The closing price of the polysilicon main contract (PS2511) was 53710 yuan/ton, up 1.56% (+825). The weighted contract position changed by -52 hands to 304226 hands [13][15]. - **Market Analysis**: They are in a "weak reality" pattern. Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and polysilicon continues the "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The short-term market focus is on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer progress [14][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Position Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1147 yuan, down 17 yuan from the previous day. The spot price of soda ash was 1195 yuan, up 15 yuan from the previous day [18][19]. - **Market Analysis**: The price adjustment space of glass is limited, and the market has certain expectations for policy support. Soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the increase is limited by the downstream demand [18][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Recently, there have been few maintenance activities at soda ash plants, supply remains at a high level; the daily melting volume of float glass downstream is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has declined, and terminal demand has weakened. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high, indicating a bearish situation [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,287 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 87 yuan. The futures price is at a premium to the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% compared with the previous week. The inventory is running above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][37]. - **Market trend**: The price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, indicating a bearish situation [2]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Given the supply - strong and demand - weak fundamentals of soda ash, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The peak maintenance period of the year is approaching, and production is expected to decline [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - start - up plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high in the same period; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has subsided [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy Soda Ash: Low - end Price in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous value | 1,281 yuan/ton | 1,190 yuan/ton | - 91 yuan | | Current value | 1,287 yuan/ton | 1,200 yuan/ton | - 87 yuan | | Change rate | 0.47% | 0.84% | - 4.40% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [12]. 3.5 Fundamentals - Supply - **Production profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in North China is - 97.20 yuan/ton, and that of the co - production process in East China is - 86 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - **Operating rate and production capacity output**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 75.92%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly production of soda ash is 751,700 tons, including 411,200 tons of heavy soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [18][20]. - **Changes in production capacity**: In 2023, the newly - added production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned newly - added production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production - start - up of 1 million tons [22]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Demand - **Production - sales ratio**: The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash is 97.80% [25]. - **Downstream demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 160,200 tons, and the operating rate of 75.92% is stable; the price of photovoltaic glass has continued to decline. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume has continued a significant downward trend [28][34]. 3.7 Fundamentals - Inventory The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [37]. 3.8 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [38].