1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][18] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the off - season, the fundamentals of the black building materials industry are lackluster. The short - term disk is expected to continue its weak adjustment. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream restocking intensity. In January, the resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to boost the restocking expectation, and there is still an expectation of a low - level rebound in furnace material prices [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Industry Situation - Steel demand remains resilient, but there is seasonal weakening pressure later. The fundamentals have limited highlights. Recently, accidents in some steel mills have disturbed the supply side, and the cost support has weakened. The disk performance is poor. The inventory pressure of iron ore may continue to increase, and the disk is weakly adjusted. The downstream procurement enthusiasm for coking coal and coke has increased, but the first round of price increases by coke enterprises has been postponed, and the disk is weakly declining. The oversupply of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the disk price [1][2] 3.2 Different Element Analysis 3.2.1 Iron Element - The expected increase in supply and inventory pressure are gradually increasing. The supply side is still subject to disturbance expectations due to weather, and the pre - holiday restocking on the demand side supports the ore price. In reality, both supply and demand need to be verified, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply of scrap steel has recovered, the electric furnace profit is acceptable, and the daily consumption has also increased, supporting the demand. The overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [2] 3.2.2 Carbon Element - The cost side of coke has stabilized and rebounded, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As the mid - and downstream winter storage restocking gradually starts, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, and the spot price increase is expected to be implemented. The disk is expected to follow coking coal. As the Spring Festival approaches, the winter storage intensity gradually increases, and the subsequent coal mine supply will gradually decrease due to the holiday. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the spot still has upward momentum, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals after the change of trading logic on the disk is limited [2] 3.3 Different Product Analysis 3.3.1 Steel - The spot market trading is weak. The steel mill复产 rhythm has slowed down, the iron water output has decreased month - on - month, and the inventory level is moderately high. Later, there is still seasonal weakening pressure on demand, and the steel mill still has room for复产. There is still pressure to accumulate inventory on the steel side. The cost support is weakening, and the short - term disk is expected to be weakly adjusted [8] 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, and the supply side is subject to disturbance expectations due to weather. The demand side has rigid support, and the steel mill restocking is in progress but the enthusiasm is weak. The port inventory continues to accumulate. The supply increase expectation and inventory pressure are gradually increasing, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [8][9] 3.3.3 Scrap Steel - The supply of scrap steel has increased significantly, and the daily consumption has also increased. The overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent. The recent price of finished products is under pressure, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [10] 3.3.4 Coke - The cost side of coke has strong support, but the price increase implementation has been postponed due to the slight decrease in steel mill iron water output. As the mid - and downstream winter storage restocking starts, the supply - demand structure may tighten, and the spot price increase is expected to be implemented. The disk is expected to follow coking coal [12] 3.3.5 Coking Coal - The trading logic of the disk has changed, and it is weakly operating. The domestic supply is temporarily stable, and the Mongolian coal import has recovered. The winter storage inventory of the mid - and downstream is gradually in place. As the Spring Festival approaches, the fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, and the spot has upward momentum, but the bullish driving force of the disk is limited. It is expected to oscillate [13] 3.3.6 Glass - The supply is still subject to disturbance expectations, and the mid - and downstream inventory is moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [14] 3.3.7 Soda Ash - The supply - demand of soda ash is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [14][16] 3.3.8 Manganese Silicon - The cost support of manganese silicon has loosened, the market supply - demand pattern is loose, and the upstream de - stocking pressure is large. The upside space of the disk price is limited, but the current disk price is at a low level, and excessive short - selling risks should be guarded against [16] 3.3.9 Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is both weak, and the fundamental contradiction is limited. In the short term, the disk price is expected to follow the sector. The current price valuation is low, and the downward space is limited [17] 3.4 Index Information - On January 20, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2414.16, down 0.15%; the commodity 20 index was 2773.48, down 0.23%; the industrial products index was 2308.47, down 0.34%. The steel industry chain index on January 20, 2026, had a daily decline of 1.28%, a decline of 2.75% in the past 5 days, an increase of 0.05% in the past month, and a decline of 0.23% since the beginning of the year [103][105]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For steel products, the production recovery of finished products is slowing down, the apparent consumption of rebar is rising, inventory is turning to destocking but may accumulate later, and the destocking of hot-rolled coils is accelerating but the increase in warehouse receipts is significant. The fundamentals are neutral, lacking drivers, and supported by the cost side, with limited downside space [3]. - For iron ore, the current dominant factor of its price is not its fundamentals but the macro - expectations. In the current situation of continuous inventory accumulation and slow resumption of production, the fundamentals cannot support the current high valuation, and there is a lack of support for the price to continue to rise. However, after the price drops, the selling pressure is released, and steel mills have the rigid demand for replenishing inventory, so the price also has support at the bottom. Overall, it shows a wide - range shock [22]. - For coking coal and coke, the accident at a factory in Inner Mongolia over the weekend may lead to a contraction in local steel supply, which can repair the profit of steel products on the disk and support steel prices. In the follow - up, the result of the incident should be concerned. If the incident leads to stricter supervision and production restrictions in local areas, the progress of hot metal resumption may slow down, exacerbating the short - term surplus contradiction of coking coal. In the long - term, the change in macro sentiment and the resumption rhythm of domestic mines after the Spring Festival should be focused on. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected recovery of domestic supply" and "weakening of macro sentiment", the long - term prices of coking coal and coke will face greater downward pressure [32]. - For ferroalloys, the ferroalloys are supported by the cost side at the bottom. In the short - term, after the correction, they may show a bottom - shock trend [47]. - For soda ash, the previous warming of commodity sentiment drove some low - valued varieties, and the disk price increased. The middle - stream of soda ash replenished inventory, but the elasticity was limited. From the perspective of fundamentals, as the new production capacity gradually releases production, the daily output of soda ash reaches a new high, and the surplus expectation is also intensifying. At present, the expectation that the long - term supply of soda ash will remain at a high level remains unchanged. The photovoltaic glass continues to accumulate inventory, and the number of kiln blockages begins to increase. The balance of heavy soda ash continues to be in surplus. In November, the export of soda ash was close to 190,000 tons, remaining at a high level, which continued to relieve the domestic pressure to a certain extent. The high - level inventory of the upper and middle - streams restricts the price of soda ash [61]. - For glass, there are rumors that some production lines have the expectation of ignition, and the supply - demand expectation has deteriorated. Although the daily melting volume of float glass has declined to a certain low level, the actual demand and expectation are also weak. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, it is difficult to have a trend - based movement. On the supply side, there are still some glass production lines waiting to be cold - repaired and ignited before the Spring Festival, which may affect the far - month pricing and market expectation. In addition, the policy disturbance to the supply cannot be excluded. At present, the high inventory of the middle - stream of glass needs to be digested, the terminal is in the off - season, and the spot pressure still exists [86]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Products - **Price Data**: - **Futures Price**: On January 20, 2026, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3191 yuan/ton, down from 3215 yuan/ton on January 19; the closing price of hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3315 yuan/ton, down from 3344 yuan/ton on January 19 [4]. - **Spot Price**: On January 20, 2026, the aggregated price of rebar in China was 3329 yuan/ton, down from 3336 yuan/ton on January 19; the aggregated price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, down from 3280 yuan/ton on January 19 [9][11]. - **Basis**: On January 20, 2026, the 01 rebar basis (Shanghai) was 89 yuan/ton, up from 75 yuan/ton on January 19; the 01 hot - rolled coil basis (Shanghai) was - 45 yuan/ton, up from - 64 yuan/ton on January 19 [9][11]. - **Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the 01 - 05 rebar spread was 80 yuan/ton, up from 75 yuan/ton on January 19; the 01 - 05 hot - rolled coil spread was 39 yuan/ton, down from 45 yuan/ton on January 19 [4]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: - **Futures Price**: On January 20, 2026, the closing price of 01 contract was 757 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan from January 19 and 73 yuan from January 13 [23]. - **Spot Price**: On January 20, 2026, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 794 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from January 19 and 32 yuan from January 13 [23]. - **Basis**: On January 20, 2026, the 01 basis was 48.5 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan from January 19 and 84.5 yuan from January 13 [23]. - **Fundamental Data**: - The daily average hot metal output on January 16, 2026, was 228.01 tons, down 1.49 tons week - on - week and up 1.46 tons month - on - month [27]. - The 45 - port desilting volume on January 16, 2026, was 319.89 tons, down 3.38 tons week - on - week and up 6.44 tons month - on - month [27]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Price Data**: - **Futures Price Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was - 162, down 1.5 from January 19; the coke 09 - 01 spread was - 111.5, down 28.5 from January 19 [34]. - **Spot Price**: On January 20, 2026, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1620 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19; the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1280 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19 [37]. - **Profit**: The on - the - spot coking profit on January 20, 2026, was - 57 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from January 19 and 38 yuan from January 13 [37]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: - **Price Data**: On January 20, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 48 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan from January 19; the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5320 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19 [48]. - **Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the silicon iron 01 - 05 spread was 124, down 66 from January 19 [48]. - **Silicon Manganese**: - **Price Data**: On January 20, 2026, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 270 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan from January 19; the silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5570 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from January 19 [49]. - **Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the silicon manganese 01 - 05 spread was 126, up 14 from January 19 [49]. Soda Ash - **Price Data**: - **Futures Price**: On January 20, 2026, the closing price of soda ash 05 contract was 1177 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan from January 19, with a daily decline of 1.26% [62]. - **Spot Price**: On January 20, 2026, the heavy - soda market price in North China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19; the light - soda market price in North China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19 [62]. - **Basis**: On January 20, 2026, the Shahe heavy - soda basis was - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from January 19 [62]. - **Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the 5 - 9 spread was - 61, unchanged from January 19 [62]. Glass - **Price Data**: - **Futures Price**: On January 20, 2026, the closing price of glass 05 contract was 1056 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan from January 19, with a daily decline of 1.31% [87]. - **Basis**: On January 20, 2026, the 01 contract basis (Shahe) was - 234 yuan/ton, down 1234 yuan from January 19 [87]. - **Spread**: On January 20, 2026, the 5 - 9 spread was - 109, up 1 from January 19 [87]. - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: On January 16, 2026, the sales - to - production ratio of Shahe was 135, the sales - to - production ratio of Hubei was 90, the sales - to - production ratio of East China was 91, and the sales - to - production ratio of South China was 105 [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - Overall, the polyolefin industry is pressured by supply and seasonal demand, but the upside space may be limited due to cost support and profit compression. Attention should be paid to the substantial changes in the demand side. For PE, the HD - LLDPE spread is narrowing, and the marginal supply of the standard product (LLDPE) is expected to increase, while the demand is in the seasonal off - season. For PP, the supply - demand is weak, but the balance has improved significantly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of future maintenance plans [1]. Methanol Industry - Methanol futures are oscillating weakly. The inland supply remains high, and the traditional demand is weak, with short - term pressure. Although the port inventory has decreased slightly, the MTO demand is weak, suppressing the price rebound. The key variables are the reduction rhythm of imported resources and the process of the risk premium fading caused by geopolitical factors [2]. Rubber Industry - Overseas raw material prices for natural rubber continue to decline, weakening the bottom support. The demand has increased slightly in some semi - steel tire foreign trade orders, and the inventory in China continues to accumulate. Considering that Thailand is about to enter the production - reduction period, the decline of raw materials is expected to be limited, and the rubber price is expected to be in the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [3]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - The supply - demand of pure benzene has improved marginally, but the port inventory is still high. Styrene is strong due to export and device accidents, and the spread between styrene and pure benzene has widened. Strategies include looking for short - selling opportunities for BZ03 and narrowing the EB - BZ spread at high levels. Styrene may face inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, and its upside space is limited [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda futures are weakly oscillating. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand lacks substantial improvement, so the price is expected to be weak. PVC futures are oscillating downwards. The supply is high, the demand is affected by the festival, and the inventory continues to accumulate, so the price is expected to be weak with limited downside space [5]. Urea Industry - Urea futures have declined, and the supply is at a high level. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the progress of downstream agricultural demand and the resumption rhythm of devices [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash futures are expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term due to high supply and weak demand, and the inventory is at a high level. Glass futures are affected by real - estate data, and the supply - demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to follow the decline of the futures price [7]. Crude Oil Industry - Short - term oil prices are still affected by news, and the supply - demand expectation is weak. Brent crude oil is expected to oscillate between 60 - 66 US dollars per barrel. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [8]. LPG Industry - LPG futures prices have declined. The inventory has decreased, and the downstream PDH operating rate has decreased. The overall market is affected by supply and demand [11]. Polyester Industry - PX supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. It is expected to be high - level oscillating before the Spring Festival and low - level long - term treated in the medium term. PTA supply - demand is expected to weaken, and it is expected to follow the raw materials. MEG is expected to accumulate a large amount of inventory, and the price is under pressure. Short - fiber is weakly oscillating following the raw materials. Polyester bottle - chip supply is expected to decline, and it follows the cost [13]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 have all declined to varying degrees [1]. - **Spreads**: The L59 spread has decreased, the PP59 spread has increased, and the LP05 spread has decreased [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of华东PP拉丝,华北LLDPE, and other products have declined [1]. - **Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate and downstream weighted operating rate have decreased, while the PP device operating rate has increased slightly, and the PP powder operating rate has decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: The PE and PP enterprise and social inventories have decreased [1]. Methanol Industry - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of MA2605 and MA2609 have declined [2]. - **Spreads**: The MA59 spread has increased significantly [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of methanol in various regions have declined [2]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory has increased slightly, while the port and social inventories have decreased [2]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic and overseas enterprise operating rates have decreased slightly, and the downstream MTO and other operating rates have changed to varying degrees [2]. Rubber Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices of natural rubber products such as云南国营全乳胶 and泰标混合 rubber have declined, and the basis has changed [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 and 5 - 9 spreads have changed [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, etc. has changed, and the operating rates of automobile tires and the production and export of domestic tires have increased [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in China has continued to accumulate [3]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent crude oil and other products have changed, and the spreads between pure benzene and other products have also changed [4]. - **Benzene and Styrene Prices and Spreads**: The prices of benzene and styrene have increased, and the spreads between them have changed [4]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of downstream products such as phenol and caprolactam have changed [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports have decreased [4]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain have changed [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda products have changed to varying degrees [5]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda have changed [5]. - **Supply**: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries have increased slightly, and the profits have changed [5]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of the downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have changed [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of caustic soda and PVC have changed [5]. Urea Industry - **Futures Prices and Positions**: The futures prices of urea have declined, and the positions of the top 20 long and short have changed [6]. - **Raw Material and Spot Prices**: The prices of upstream raw materials and urea spot have changed [6]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads and basis of urea have changed [6]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of downstream products such as melamine and compound fertilizer have changed [6]. - **Supply - Demand**: The daily and weekly production, inventory, and operating rate of urea have changed [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass and soda ash products and their spreads have changed [7]. - **Supply - Demand**: The operating rates, production, and inventory of glass and soda ash have changed [7]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil and their spreads have changed [8]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of refined oil products have changed [8]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of refined oil products have changed [8]. LPG Industry - **LPG Prices and Spreads**: The prices of LPG futures and spot have declined, and the spreads have changed [11]. - **External Prices**: The external prices of LPG have declined slightly [11]. - **Inventory**: The LPG inventory has decreased [11]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream and downstream operating rates of LPG have changed [11]. Polyester Industry - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices and cash flows of downstream polyester products have changed [13]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PX have changed [13]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PTA have changed [13]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of MEG have changed [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various industries in the polyester industry chain have changed [13].

Oil Market - WTI prices were not available due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday, while Brent crude for March closed at $63.94 per barrel, down $0.19, a decrease of 0.30% [2][15] - Domestic crude oil production in China for 2025 is projected to be 21,605 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, with processing volume at 73,759 million tons, up 4.1% [2][15] - The market is currently experiencing a seasonal decline in diesel and gasoline demand, with oil prices showing no significant driving force, maintaining a volatile trend [2][15] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil (FU2603) rose by 0.12% to 2,538 yuan per ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil (LU2603) increased by 0.07% to 3,060 yuan per ton [16] - Supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is expected to be sufficient, with Singapore receiving approximately 290-300 million tons in January, up from 260-270 million tons in December [16] - The geopolitical situation in Iran continues to significantly impact oil prices, with fluctuations expected to follow oil price movements [16][4] Asphalt - The main contract for asphalt (BU2602) increased by 0.29% to 3,142 yuan per ton, with concerns over raw material supply easing slightly [17] - The market is currently facing a "weak demand reality" against a backdrop of "strong cost expectations," particularly as winter weather impacts demand [17] Rubber - The main contract for rubber (RU2605) fell by 90 yuan per ton to 15,745 yuan per ton, with NR and BR contracts also experiencing declines [18] - China's rubber tire exports for 2025 are expected to reach 9.65 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [18] - Inventory levels for natural rubber in Qingdao increased, indicating a seasonal accumulation trend [18] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5,030 yuan per ton, up 0.24%, while EG2605 fell by 1.08% to 3,755 yuan per ton [19] - PX futures closed at 7,106 yuan per ton, with a slight increase of 0.28%, and the market is expected to see some support due to supply reductions [19] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were reported at 2,207 yuan per ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $262 to $266 per ton [21] - Domestic supply remains stable, but demand is under pressure due to reduced operating rates in MTO facilities [21] Polyolefins - Polypropylene prices are under pressure, with production margins for various methods showing negative values [22] - Demand is expected to recover slightly in early January, but inventory levels are anticipated to rise as the month progresses [22] PVC - PVC prices have decreased, with the market experiencing a supply-demand imbalance and overall bearish sentiment [23] - The upcoming end of export tax rebates is expected to increase upward pressure on long-term contracts [23] Urea - Urea futures prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 1,772 yuan per ton, down 1.45% [24] - Market sentiment is declining, with production rates and demand showing signs of weakness ahead of the Spring Festival [24] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices are fluctuating, with the main contract closing at 1,192 yuan per ton, down 0.33% [25] - The industry is facing pressure from supply and demand dynamics, with cautious sentiment prevailing in the market [25] Glass - Glass futures prices fell significantly, with the main contract closing at 1,070 yuan per ton, down 2.9% [26] - The market is experiencing a supply recovery, but demand remains cautious, leading to a bearish outlook [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals in the off - season are lackluster, and the market is expected to continue its weak adjustment in the short term. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream restocking intensity. In January, the resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to boost the restocking expectation, and there is an expectation of a low - level upward movement in the prices of furnace materials [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The expected increase in supply and inventory pressure are gradually rising. There are still expectations of disturbances on the supply side due to weather. The pre - holiday restocking on the demand side supports the ore price. The supply and demand on the ground still need verification, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply of scrap steel is low, the electric furnace profit is acceptable, and the daily consumption keeps increasing, which supports the demand. The overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent, and the spot price is expected to oscillate [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The cost side of coke has stabilized and rebounded, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As the mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually starts, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, and the spot price increase is expected to be implemented. The futures market is expected to follow the trend of coking coal [2]. - **Coking Coal**: As the Chinese New Year approaches, the intensity of winter restocking gradually increases, and the subsequent coal mine supply will gradually decline due to the holiday. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the spot price still has upward momentum. However, after the previous rally, the driving force for the futures market to continue rising is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [2]. 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost push of manganese silicon is relatively weak, the market supply - demand pattern is loose, and the de - stocking pressure is large. The upward space of the futures price is limited. However, the current futures price valuation is low, and under the high - cost support, the risk of excessive short - selling should be guarded against [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: Currently, the silicon iron market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental contradiction is relatively limited. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the trend of the sector [3]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of disturbances in glass supply, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of supply surplus will further intensify, the price center will still decline, and capacity de - stocking will be promoted [3]. 3.5 Specific Product Analysis - **Steel**: The cost support is weakening, and the futures market is under pressure. The spot market trading is weak, the steel mill复产 rhythm slows down, the iron water output decreases, and the five major steel products' output growth slows down. The demand still has resilience, but there is seasonal weakening pressure later. The inventory is still being de - stocked, but the de - stocking speed is not obvious, and the inventory level is moderately high. It is expected to be under pressure in the short term [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The market sentiment has declined, with both shipments and arrivals decreasing. Overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, arrivals have declined, and the supply side is expected to be disturbed by weather. The demand side has rigid support, and steel mills are restocking with weak enthusiasm. The port inventory is accumulating, and the supply pressure expectation has increased. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival volume has increased significantly, and the supply has recovered. The electric furnace profit is acceptable, and the daily consumption also keeps increasing, supporting the demand. The supply and demand are both increasing, and the overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent. The spot price is expected to oscillate following the finished products [10]. - **Coke**: The steel mill's rigid demand has declined, and the implementation of the price increase has been postponed. The cost side support is strong, but the steel mill's iron water output has slightly decreased, so the price increase implementation is delayed. The futures market is expected to follow the trend of coking coal [11]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is rising well, and the futures market is oscillating. The domestic supply is stable, and the Mongolian coal import has recovered. The demand side has seen an increase in winter restocking by coking enterprises, and the upstream coal mine inventory has been continuously digested. The spot price still has upward momentum, but the futures market's upward driving force is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [12]. - **Glass**: The futures price has corrected, and the spot and futures markets have started to sell. The supply is expected to decline in the long term, but it is difficult to have a large - scale cold repair in the short term. The demand is weak year - on - year, and the large inventory in the middle reaches always suppresses the glass valuation. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, it will oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price has fallen at a low level, and the futures premium has decreased. The supply and demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. The downstream demand is showing a downward trend, and the dynamic surplus expectation is further intensifying. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the price center will decline in the long run [13]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost support is loosening, and the de - stocking pressure still exists. The cost push is weak, the supply pressure is large, and the futures price is running weakly. The demand support in the off - season is limited, and the supply is difficult to achieve high - level inventory digestion. The upward space of the futures price is limited, but excessive short - selling risks should be guarded against [15]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and it follows the sector's weakening. The market has weak supply and demand, and the overall contradiction is limited. The cost is at a relatively high level, which supports the price bottom. The demand support in the off - season is limited, and the supply is at a low level. In the short term, the futures market is expected to follow the black sector, and the downward space is limited [17]. 3.6 Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2417.77, up 0.01%; the commodity 20 index is 2779.78, up 0.20%; the industrial products index is 2316.27, down 0.28% [103]. - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index on January 19, 2026, has a daily increase or decrease of - 0.82%, a five - day increase or decrease of - 1.37%, a one - month increase or decrease of + 1.16%, and an increase or decrease since the beginning of the year of + 1.07% [105].

Core Viewpoint - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) has optimized the delivery system for soda ash futures through two major initiatives: expanding the delivery area and standardizing the delivery model, which enhances the precision of futures services for the soda ash industry and injects financial momentum for high-quality development [1][5]. Group 1: Delivery System Optimization - The optimization of the delivery system is a practical measure that aligns the futures market with industry realities, improving service quality [1]. - By 2025, Shandong, Tianjin, and Jiangsu will account for 27% of the national soda ash production capacity and 15% of consumption, with Shandong being the second-largest consumer in the country [1]. - The expansion of the delivery area to include Shandong, Tianjin, and Jiangsu will effectively increase the supply of delivery sources and enhance liquidity in the futures market [1][2]. Group 2: Support for Green Industry Development - Soda ash is a key raw material for photovoltaic glass production, with Jiangsu, Anhui, and Zhejiang regions housing about 60% of the national photovoltaic glass capacity [2]. - The optimized delivery system will allow futures services to cover 74% of the photovoltaic glass production capacity, facilitating procurement for regional photovoltaic glass companies [2]. Group 3: Efficiency Improvements - The standardization of the delivery model enhances efficiency by unifying the delivery points for production-type warehouses to fixed locations, similar to trade warehouses [3]. - This change simplifies the delivery process, reduces overall delivery costs, and aligns with market trends of "inventory front-loading" [3][4]. - The expansion of the delivery area and the optimization of the delivery model are expected to significantly lower transportation costs for companies involved in soda ash futures [4]. Group 4: Industry Impact and Future Outlook - Industry experts recognize that the optimization of the delivery system addresses practical pain points for industry participants and enhances the market influence of soda ash futures prices [5]. - The ZCE plans to continuously monitor industry developments and further optimize the delivery system to promote the integration of the soda ash spot and futures markets [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the soda ash industry is "shockingly weak in the short term" [1] Core View of the Report - Despite short - term support from news and a slight recovery in rigid demand, due to the intensifying contradiction of supply surplus in the industry, the recommended strategy is to go short on rebounds. Future attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment changes [4] Summary According to the Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The main soda ash contract opened lower and closed higher, with slightly stronger intraday fluctuations. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands showed a short - term shockingly weak signal. The trading volume decreased by 28,783 lots and the open interest decreased by 38,955 lots compared to the previous day. The intraday high was 1215, the low was 1186, and the closing price was 1192, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot market**: It was running stably. Enterprise equipment was adjusted with production declines at Jiangsu Jingshen and short - term shutdown at Lianyungang Alkali Industry, leading to a narrow decline in overall output. Downstream demand was average, with customers purchasing on - demand at low prices. There was a lack of substantial support in the short - term market, and prices were adjusted stably [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 58 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 15, domestic soda ash production was 775,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,700 tons or 2.88%. Light soda ash production was 361,500 tons, up 12,400 tons month - on - month; heavy soda ash production was 413,800 tons, up 9,300 tons month - on - month. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.82%, up 2.43% from the previous week. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 89.95%, down 0.46% month - on - month; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 78.88%, up 4.77% month - on - month. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of over one million tons was 89.47%, up 1.32% month - on - month [2] - **Inventory**: As of January 19, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,544,200 tons, a decrease of 30,800 tons or 1.96% from the previous Thursday. Light soda ash inventory was 822,600 tons, down 14,400 tons month - on - month; heavy soda ash inventory was 721,600 tons, down 16,400 tons month - on - month [2] - **Demand**: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 773,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.20%. The overall shipment rate was 99.70%, up 21.52 percentage points month - on - month. Downstream demand for soda ash was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. Light soda ash demand was relatively stable, while the rigid demand for heavy soda ash weakened due to the cold repair of glass production lines [2][3] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information, the theoretical profit of the co - production method (double - ton) was - 44 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 96.3 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 66.46%. During the week, the price of raw material rock salt was stable, while the price of thermal coal increased, leading to higher costs [3] Main Logic Summary - The current high capacity utilization rate of soda ash and the gradual release of new capacity have led to a continuous increase in overall production. The slowdown of short - term glass cold - repair has slightly restored the rigid demand for soda ash. With continuous losses and the boost of last week's news, there is some short - term support. However, considering the intensifying supply - surplus contradiction in the industry, the strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended [4]

Industry Investment Ratings - Macrofinance: Index (Long-term bullish, short-term shock adjustment), Treasury bonds (Shock), Copper (Shock), Aluminum (Shock), Alumina (Shock), Zinc (Shock), Nickel (High-level shock), Stainless steel (High-level shock), Tin (Potential for increase), Precious metals (High-level wide-range shock), Industrial silicon and polysilicon (Bearish), Lithium carbonate (No clear rating), Rebar (Shock), Iron ore (Shock), Coke (Shock), Coking coal (Bullish), Anthracite (Bullish), Palm oil (Shock), Soybean oil (Bullish), Rapeseed oil (Bearish), Cotton (Shock), Sugar (Bearish), Corn (Shock), Soybeans (Bearish), Pulp (Shock), Logs (Shock), Live pigs (Shock), Fuel oil (Shock), Bitumen (Shock), BR rubber (Bullish), PTA (Shock), Ethylene glycol (Shock), Styrene (Bearish), Urea (Shock), PF (Shock), PVC (Shock), LPG (Bullish), Container shipping European line (Shock) [1] Core Views - The policy aims for a "slow bull" in the stock index rather than suppressing the market. The short-term shock adjustment space is expected to be limited, and long-term bulls can choose opportunities to layout. Asset shortages and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. The downstream demand is relatively pressured, and with the US suspending the tax on key minerals, the short-term concern about copper hoarding has eased, causing copper prices to fall from high levels. The supply of nickel ore remains tight, but the continuous accumulation of global nickel inventories may restrict the rise of nickel prices. The prices of precious metals are expected to shift to high-level wide-range shocks. The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are bearish. The prices of black metals are affected by weak reality and strong expectations. The prices of agricultural products are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and weather. The prices of energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical situations, and cost support [1] Summary by Directory Macrofinance - Index: The stock index rose strongly in the first half of the week and then adjusted with policy regulation. The short-term shock adjustment space is limited, and long-term bulls can choose opportunities to layout [1] - Treasury bonds: Asset shortages and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Pay attention to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper: The downstream demand is relatively pressured, and with the US suspending the tax on key minerals, the short-term concern about copper hoarding has eased, causing copper prices to fall from high levels [1] - Aluminum: The recent industrial drive is limited, and the macro sentiment has weakened, causing aluminum prices to fall from high levels [1] - Alumina: The alumina production capacity still has a large release space, and the industrial side weakens the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1] - Zinc: The cost center of the zinc fundamentals is stable, but the inventory pressure is obvious. The current price has insufficient fundamental support, and the zinc price fluctuates in a range under the repeated macro sentiment [1] - Nickel: The supply of nickel ore remains tight, but the continuous accumulation of global nickel inventories may restrict the rise of nickel prices. The short-term nickel price fluctuates at a high level and is still affected by the resonance of the non-ferrous metal sector. It is recommended to pay attention to the policy changes in Indonesia, the macro sentiment, and the futures positions [1] - Stainless steel: The price of raw material nickel iron continues to rise, the social inventory of stainless steel decreases slightly, and the steel mill's production schedule in January increases. Pay attention to the actual production situation of the steel mill. The stainless steel futures fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to go long at low levels in the short term [1] - Tin: The short-term macro sentiment is repeated, and the tin price has corrected. However, the supply vulnerability of tin ore still exists, and it still has the driving force to rise. Pay attention to the opportunity of low absorption [1] - Precious metals: The geopolitical situation has cooled down, and the rise of precious metal prices has slowed down. The silver price has fallen under pressure. The short-term gold and silver prices are expected to shift to high-level wide-range shocks. In the long term, it is recommended to allocate platinum at low levels or choose the arbitrage strategy of [long platinum, short palladium] [1] Black Metals - Rebar: The expectation is strong, but the spot is weak, and the sentiment transmission to the spot is not smooth. The continuous rise kinetic energy is insufficient. Unilaterally long orders should leave the market and wait and see; participate in the positive arbitrage position in the spot and futures [1] - Iron ore: The sector rotates, but the upper pressure of iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long at this position. The weak reality and strong expectation are intertwined. The actual supply and demand continue to be weak, and the energy consumption double control and anti-involution may disturb the supply [1] - Coke: The short-term market sentiment warms up, and the supply and demand are supported, but the medium-term supply and demand continue to be surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - Coking coal: If the expectation of "capacity reduction" continues to ferment and the spot replenishes the inventory before the Spring Festival, coking coal may still have room to rise, but the actual rise space is difficult to judge, and the volatility increases after a large rise. It is necessary to be cautious [1] - Anthracite: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural Products - Cotton: The domestic new crop production expectation is strong, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream start-up maintains a low level, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "supported but no driving force." Pay attention to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document on direct subsidy prices and cotton planting areas in the first quarter of next year, the intention of cotton planting areas next year, the weather during the planting period, and the peak season demand from March to April [1] - Sugar: The global sugar is in surplus, and the domestic new crop supply increases. The short consensus is relatively consistent. If the disk continues to fall, the lower cost support is strong, but the short-term fundamentals lack continuous driving force. Pay attention to the changes in the capital side [1] - Corn: The grain sales progress of Northeast corn is relatively fast, the port inventory is low, and the middle and lower reaches have a certain replenishment demand before the festival. The short-term spot is still relatively strong, and the disk is expected to fluctuate in a range [1] - Soybeans: With the progress of the Brazilian harvest, the Brazilian CNF premium is expected to reflect the selling pressure of the soybean harvest. Coupled with the pressure on the rapeseed sector from the Sino-Canadian easing, the MO5 is expected to be under pressure, and the MO5 - M09 is expected to be in a reverse arbitrage [1] - Pulp: The pulp fell today due to the decline of the commodity macro. The overall did not break through the shock range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has recently shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding. It is expected that the further decline space of the futures price is limited. However, the external quotation in January still shows a slight decline, and the spot and futures markets of logs lack driving factors for rising. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1] - Live pigs: The spot and futures of live pigs gradually stabilize. The demand support and the unsold slaughter weight, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemical Products - Fuel oil: OPEC+ suspends production increase until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement affects. The US sanctions the Venezuelan crude oil export. The short-term supply and demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five-Year Plan rush work is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The asphalt profit is high [1] - Bitumen: The raw material cost support is strong. The spot-futures price difference rebounds greatly. The intermediate inventory increases [1] - BR rubber: The disk position decreases, and the new warehouse receipts increase. The BR increase slows down periodically. The spot leads the rise to repair the basis, and the BR continues to pay attention to the upward driving force above 12,000. The BD/BR listing price continues to be raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber narrows. The overseas cracking device capacity is cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The naphtha tax also has a positive support for the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high operation and high inventory, and the transaction center is average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber [1] - PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, and this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The PX fundamentals are indeed supported, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. The domestic PTA maintains high operation. The gasoline price difference is still at a high level, which supports the aromatics [1] - Ethylene glycol: The market spreads the news that two sets of MEG devices in Taiwan, China, with a total annual production capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline due to the stimulation of supply-side news. The current polyester downstream start-up rate maintains above 90%, and the demand performance slightly exceeds expectations [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. The suppliers are reluctant to reduce prices due to continuous losses, while the buyers insist on pressing prices due to the weak downstream polymer demand and profit compression. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a bullish sentiment due to the export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward driving force needs to pay attention to the drive of the overseas market [1] - Urea: The export sentiment eases slightly, and the domestic demand is insufficient. The upper space is limited. The lower has the support of anti-involution and the cost side [1] - PF: The geopolitical conflict intensifies, and the crude oil has a rising risk. The maintenance decreases, and the operation load is at a high level. The long-distance arrival increases the supply. The downstream demand operation weakens. The price returns to a reasonable range [1] - PVC: There is less global production in 2026, and the future expectation is optimistic. The fundamentals are poor. The export tax rebate is cancelled, and there may be a phenomenon of rushing to export later. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, forcing the PVC production capacity to be cleared [1] - LPG: The January CP rises unexpectedly, and the cost support of imported gas is strong. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East escalates, and the short-term risk premium rises. The EIA weekly C3 inventory accumulation trend slows down, and it is expected to gradually turn to destocking. The domestic port inventory also decreases [1] - Container shipping European line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. The airlines are still cautious in their tentative re-navigation. The pre-festival replenishment demand still exists [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market cooled last Friday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate in the bottom - range. The black - series is still in a bottom - oscillating pattern and is sensitive to marginal news. Pay attention to the destocking progress of hot - rolled coils, the strengthening of "dual - carbon" policies, and their potential marginal impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [3]. - For iron ore, the overseas shipping season is entering a slow period, and the supply pressure may be marginally relieved. Iron - water production has limited resumption, and the inventory structure problem remains unsolved. Steel mills are starting to replenish their stocks before the Spring Festival, creating room for a relative price increase. Monitor the stock - replenishment and iron - water production rhythm of steel mills [6]. - The long - term bullish sentiment in the commodity market will continue, mainly centered around precious metals and non - ferrous metals. Other sectors are affected by the spill - over of market sentiment, and the scope of sentiment influence may shrink. Be aware of the impact of the high - level fluctuations of leading varieties on market sentiment [9]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market will be influenced by the overall market sentiment and the cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon and the supply contraction for ferrosilicon. Focus on potential restrictions on manganese ore exports and "dual - carbon" policies [10]. - The decline of coking coal and coke prices last week was mainly due to the weakening of market sentiment. In the future, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market will continue, but with short - term fluctuations. Coking coal and coke are expected to show an oscillatingly strong price trend [15][16]. - For industrial silicon, with the reduction of production on the supply side and the weakening of demand, it still faces inventory - building pressure and is expected to have an oscillatingly weak price trend. Monitor the production adjustment rhythm of downstream enterprises [19]. - For polysilicon, the market is in a wait - and - see state. The supply pressure is expected to ease, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to spot transactions and exchange risk - control measures [22]. - For glass, the supply - demand pattern is in a loose balance, with no obvious marginal driver. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 1015 - 1200 yuan/ton [25]. - For soda ash, the supply - demand game continues, and there is no obvious driving factor. The price is expected to maintain a weak consolidation trend in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 1123 - 1310 yuan/ton [27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products a. Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3163 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.094%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 61,680 tons, an increase of 1510 tons. The main - contract open interest was 1.7553 million lots, an increase of 70,217 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai summary prices increased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3315 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.241%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 194,362 tons, unchanged. The main - contract open interest was 1.5147 million lots, an increase of 66,309 lots. The Lecong and Shanghai summary prices increased by 20 and 30 yuan/ton respectively [2]. b. Strategy Views - The production of hot - rolled coils has slightly increased, the apparent demand has improved, but the inventory is high and the destocking is slow. The apparent demand for rebar has increased significantly, the production is at a medium level, and the inventory is basically flat. The overall performance is neutral [3]. Iron Ore a. Market Quotes - The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 812.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.12% (- 1.00). The open interest changed by - 3540 lots to 648,900 lots. The weighted open interest was 995,200 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 819 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 58.72 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.74% [5]. b. Strategy Views - Supply: The year - end shipping rush of mines has ended, and the overseas iron - ore shipping volume has continued to decline. The shipping volume from Brazil has decreased significantly, and the shipping of Rio Tinto and BHP has decreased. The shipping from non - mainstream countries has increased, and the near - term arrival volume has continued to rise [6]. - Demand: The daily average pig - iron output was 228.01 tons, a decrease from the previous period. There were both blast - furnace overhauls and restarts. The profitability of steel mills has risen to nearly 40% [6]. - Inventory: The port inventory has continued to increase, and the inventory of imported ore in steel mills has also increased [6]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon a. Market Quotes - On January 16, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed down 0.72% at 5828 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a basis of 82 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.71% at 5570 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5800 yuan/ton, with a basis of 230 yuan/ton [8]. b. Strategy Views - The decline in the prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon was due to the weakening of market sentiment. In the future, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market will continue, but the main focus is on precious metals and non - ferrous metals. Other sectors are affected by sentiment spill - over [9]. - The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is loose, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market will be influenced by market sentiment, the cost - push from manganese ore, and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon [10]. Coking Coal and Coke a. Market Quotes - On January 16, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed down 1.39% at 1171.0 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Shanxi had different basis levels. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 1.60% at 1717.0 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Rizhao and Lvliang had different basis levels [12]. b. Strategy Views - The decline in coking coal and coke prices last week was due to the weakening of market sentiment. In the future, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market will continue, but with short - term fluctuations. The supply - demand of coking coal and coke is relatively balanced, and the prices are expected to show an oscillatingly strong trend [15][16]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon a. Market Quotes - For industrial silicon, the main contract (SI2605) closed at 8605 yuan/ton on Friday, down 1.43% (- 125). The weighted open interest increased by 6473 lots to 371,875 lots. The spot prices of different grades in East China remained unchanged [18]. - For polysilicon, the main contract (PS2605) closed at 50,200 yuan/ton on Friday, up 3.14% (+ 1530). The weighted open interest decreased by 2173 lots to 84,296 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon increased [20]. b. Strategy Views - For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is also weakening. It still faces inventory - building pressure and is expected to have an oscillatingly weak price trend [19]. - For polysilicon, the market is in a wait - and - see state. The supply pressure is expected to ease, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [22]. Glass and Soda Ash a. Market Quotes - For glass, the main contract closed at 1103 yuan/ton on Friday, up 1.57% (+ 17). The inventory decreased by 2505,000 cases week - on - week. The positions of the top 20 long and short holders changed [24]. - For soda ash, the main contract closed at 1192 yuan/ton on Friday, down 0.08% (- 1). The inventory increased by 0.23 million tons week - on - week. The positions of the top 20 long and short holders changed [26]. b. Strategy Views - For glass, the supply - demand pattern is in a loose balance, with no obvious marginal driver. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 1015 - 1200 yuan/ton [25]. - For soda ash, the supply - demand game continues, and there is no obvious driving factor. The price is expected to maintain a weak consolidation trend in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 1123 - 1310 yuan/ton [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The glass industry is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with the daily melting of float glass dropping to a certain low level, and there are expectations for both cold repairs and ignitions in the future. The demand is weak in both reality and expectation, making it difficult to have a trend - based movement. The policy may also affect the supply, so changes in supply expectations should be monitored. The price rhythm is hard to grasp [1]. - The soda ash industry is mainly cost - priced. Although the supply side occasionally reduces production, new production capacities are gradually ramping up, and the daily output is at an absolute high. Without supply disruptions, the expectation of oversupply remains consistent, and the valuation has limited upward flexibility. As the cold repair expectations of float glass and photovoltaic glass resurface, the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to decline month - on - month [1]. - In reality, the high inventory of glass in the middle - stream needs to be digested, resulting in a short - lived positive feedback between futures and spot. For soda ash, the production still has room to increase, and the capacity expansion cycle is not over, so the expectation of oversupply persists [1]. - The prices of glass and soda ash lack clear trends, showing a weak and volatile pattern with limited short - term elasticity [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Glass: The daily melting of float glass has declined, with both cold repair and ignition expectations. The demand is weak, and the policy may affect supply. The high middle - stream inventory needs to be digested [1]. - Soda ash: Cost - based pricing, new capacities are increasing, daily output is high, and there is an expectation of oversupply. The cold repair of glass will reduce rigid demand [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Glass: The overall demand is weak, with both cold repair and ignition expectations, and the middle - stream maintains high inventory. The 05 contract is more about expectations, but the fundamentals lack clear drivers. - Strategy: The prices of glass and soda ash lack clear trends, showing a weak and volatile pattern with limited short - term elasticity [5]. 3.1.3 Basic Data Overview - **Glass**: - Spot prices: There was no change in the prices of various glass products on January 18, 2026, compared with the previous day [8]. - Futures prices: The glass 05 contract increased by 17 yuan to 1103 yuan on January 16, 2026, with a daily increase of 1.57%. The 09 contract increased by 13 yuan to 1209 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.09%. The 01 contract decreased by 941 yuan to 0 yuan, with a daily decrease of 100% [8]. - Production and sales: On January 16, 2026, the production - sales ratios in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China were 135, 90, 91, and 105 respectively [9]. - **Soda ash**: - Spot prices: There was little change in the market prices of heavy and light soda ash in various regions on January 16, 2026, compared with the previous day [10]. - Futures prices: The soda ash 05 contract decreased by 1 yuan to 1192 yuan on January 16, 2026, with a daily decrease of 0.08%. The 09 contract increased by 3 yuan to 1259 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.24%. The 01 contract decreased by 1 yuan to 1115 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.09% [11]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: There are still some glass production lines with cold repair expectations to be fulfilled before the Spring Festival, and the supply is still shrinking [11]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - Whether there are further clear instructions on industrial policies. - The National Development and Reform Commission will effectively manage high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects starting from 2026, and the market may have new expectations for supply - side policies. - There is still room for positive feedback between futures and spot for both glass and soda ash when the futures prices rise. - Shahe glass has ignition expectations, the high middle - stream inventory persists, and the far - month demand lacks upward flexibility, with differences in the degree of demand decline. - The second - phase first and second lines of Alxa's 100 - million - ton new production capacities are gradually ramping up, maintaining long - term supply pressure. The cold repair expectation of glass will affect the rigid demand for soda ash [14]. - Monitor the production - sales situation, spot prices of glass, and the spot trading situation of soda ash [15]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Unilateral Trends and Capital Movements - Glass: The expectation of the main 05 contract is unclear, with weak supply and demand. The near - term spot pressure is high, and the middle - stream has high inventory. The far - month has expectations of supply reduction and cost increase, but the demand is unclear [16]. 3.3.2 Basis and Calendar Spread Structures - Glass: The 5 - 9 spread fluctuates mainly in a range, without a clear direction, as the supply - demand expectations are uncertain, and funds are on the sidelines [20]. - Soda ash: It maintains a C - shaped structure. With the launch of new production capacities, the long - term situation may deteriorate again [21]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Glass: Natural gas production lines are in losses, while petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines have small profits or are on the verge of break - even [37]. - Soda ash: The cash cost of the ammonia - soda process (in Shandong) is around 1210 - 1220 yuan/ton, and the cash cost of the combined - soda process (mainly in Central China) is around 1080 - 1090 yuan/ton [37]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Analysis - Glass: The monthly average net export of float glass is 6 - 7 million tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand, with limited impact [43]. - Soda ash: The monthly average net export of soda ash is 18 - 21 million tons, basically in line with expectations, accounting for 5.8% of the apparent demand, with a significantly higher proportion than last year. The export in November was close to 19 million tons, maintaining high export expectations [43]. 3.5 Supply, Demand, and Inventory 3.5.1 Supply Side and Projections - **Glass**: The daily melting of glass has dropped to around 150,000 tons. There are still some cold - repaired production lines to be fulfilled before the Spring Festival, and the daily melting is expected to decline further [49]. - **Soda ash**: The current daily output of soda ash has increased to over 110,000 tons. The first and second lines of the second - phase project in Alxa (with a total of 2.8 million tons) have been ignited and are gradually producing products [54]. 3.5.2 Demand Side and Projections - **Glass**: The middle - stream inventory remains high, and the spot pressure persists. As of the end of December, the deep - processing orders for glass were 8.6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. The deep - processing raw material inventory was 8.4 days, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.96%. The cumulative apparent demand for glass in 2025 is estimated to have decreased by 7.5%. The terminal demand remains weak, and the middle - stream replenishes inventory at low prices [56]. - **Soda ash**: The total daily melting of float glass and photovoltaic glass is 238,000 tons, showing a slight decline, and the daily rigid demand for soda ash is about 47,600 tons. With the cold repair expectation of glass, the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to decline month - on - month. The finished product inventory of photovoltaic glass remains high, with an inventory period of about 39 days, and the industry chain is in a state of oversupply. The cumulative apparent demand for soda ash in 2025 is estimated to have decreased by 0.2%. The rigid demand for soda ash declines slightly month - on - month, and the middle and lower reaches mainly replenish inventory at low prices [67]. 3.5.3 Inventory Analysis - **Glass**: According to Longzhong data, the total inventory of glass factories is 53.013 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 2.505 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 4.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.89%. The inventory period is 23 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous period. The upstream inventory has been transferred to the middle - stream [75]. - **Soda ash**: The inventory of soda ash is 1.575 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0023 million tons. Among them, the light - soda inventory is 0.837 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0005 million tons, and the heavy - soda inventory is 0.738 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0018 million tons. The inventory in the delivery warehouse is 0.3877 million tons (an increase of 0.00104 million tons). The total inventory of soda ash factories and delivery warehouses is 1.9627 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.00127 million tons. The upstream inventory fluctuates at a high level [75].