Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the trends and statistics in China's soda ash (sodium carbonate) industry, indicating a slight decline in production in December 2025 and a cumulative growth for the year [1] - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the production of soda ash in December 2025 was 3.35 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% [1] - The total cumulative production of soda ash for the entire year of 2025 reached 39.572 million tons, showing a cumulative growth of 4.3% compared to the previous year [1] Group 2 - The article references a report by Zhiyan Consulting, which provides a specialized market survey and competitive strategy analysis for the soda ash industry from 2026 to 2032 [1] - Listed companies in the soda ash sector include Yuanxing Energy, Sanyou Chemical, Shandong Haohua, Shuanghuan Technology, Chlor-alkali Chemical, Jinjing Technology, Hubei Yihua, Yuntu Holdings, and Hebang Biological [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, offering comprehensive industry research reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The supply and demand of steel are both weakening, and steel prices are fluctuating. Glass and soda ash are experiencing range - bound oscillations due to pre - holiday cautious sentiment. For double silicon, the market is mainly in a wait - and - see mode as the Spring Festival approaches [1][3] - Glass market fundamentals have no obvious improvement. Although the expected production halt in Shahe eases supply pressure, pre - holiday demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Soda ash supply is abundant with new production projects advancing, and pre - holiday demand is seasonally low [1] - The fundamentals of silicon manganese have improved slightly with expected increase in iron - water production, but inventory pressure remains high. The fundamentals of silicon iron are controllable, and demand is expected to improve marginally as steel mills resume production, but overall over - capacity restricts price increases [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass contracts showed narrow - range fluctuations yesterday, with decreasing positions as the holiday nears. Spot prices are stable, but trading volume is low. This week, cold - repair of production lines increased, daily melting volume dropped, and inventory rose. Soda ash contracts also had narrow - range fluctuations, with low spot trading volume. This week, soda ash production increased slightly, heavy - ash inventory rose slightly, and light - ash inventory decreased [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass fundamentals have no significant improvement. The expected production halt in Shahe eases supply pressure, but pre - holiday demand is weak, and inventory accumulation continues. Soda ash supply is in a loose pattern. With new production projects advancing, production remains high, and inventory is increasing. Pre - holiday demand drops seasonally, and the new production projects need to be monitored [1] Strategy - Glass: Range - bound fluctuations; Soda ash: Range - bound fluctuations; No strategies for inter - period and inter - variety trading [2] Double Silicon Market Analysis - Silicon manganese futures continued to fluctuate slightly, and the market was quiet with a strong holiday atmosphere. The price of 6517 silicon manganese is 5580 - 5680 yuan/ton in the northern market and 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton in the southern market. Silicon iron futures followed the overall black - metal market downwards, and the spot market was weak. Most of the market is in a wait - and - see mode. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas is 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and that of 75 - grade silicon iron is 5850 - 6000 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon manganese fundamentals have improved slightly, and iron - water production is expected to increase, leading to marginal improvement in demand. However, inventory pressure is still high. The South African tariff policy may increase manganese ore costs. Silicon iron fundamentals are controllable. Enterprises are reducing production, and demand is expected to improve as steel mills resume production. But overall over - capacity restricts price increases, and inventory reduction and power - price policies need to be monitored [3] Strategy - Silicon manganese: Range - bound fluctuations; Silicon iron: Range - bound fluctuations [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [8] 2. Core View of the Report - As the holiday approaches, the inventory of steel products accumulates rapidly, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures market shows weakness. The total inventory pressure of iron ore continues to increase, and the current market has average expectations for post - holiday demand, causing the futures market to face pressure. There are disturbances on the coal supply side, with more coal mines taking holidays before the Spring Festival, but the coal - coke replenishment is coming to an end, and the demand support is limited, resulting in wide - range oscillations at a low level in the futures market. The oversupply of glass and soda ash suppresses the futures prices. Overall, the winter storage of furnace materials is coming to an end, the fundamentals in the off - season are lackluster, and there is short - term downward adjustment pressure in the futures market, but there are still macro disturbances before the Two Sessions, and the downward space of the futures market is limited [3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: The inventory pressure of iron ore continues to increase, and there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side. The current market has average expectations for post - holiday demand, causing the futures market to face pressure. However, important meetings will be held after the holiday, and there are still macro expectations. After the rapid decline of the futures market, the pressure has been released. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally, and the steel mill replenishment is basically completed. It is expected that the spot price will oscillate before the holiday [3] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: The subsequent growth space of coke supply is limited, while the expectation of downstream steel mill resumption still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will continue to be healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot is expected to remain stable for the time being, and the futures market is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side [4] - Coking coal: Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of coking coal will continue to decline. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of coal mines will still be restricted. The fundamentals of coking coal may continue to be healthy. The spot is expected to oscillate, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely due to the influence of capital sentiment [4] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: The manganese silicon market has strong supply and weak demand, and the upstream de - stocking pressure is increasing. When the futures market rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. It is expected that the futures price of the main manganese silicon contract will oscillate around the cost [4] - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental contradictions are limited. The market transactions are light around the Spring Festival, and the upward driving force of the futures market is insufficient. It is expected that the ferrosilicon futures price will run at a low level around the cost [4] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of disturbances in glass supply, but the inventory of the middle and downstream is moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price [4] - Soda ash: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity de - stocking [4] 3.5 Specific Product Analysis - Steel: Before the holiday, the supply and demand are both weak, and the futures market shows weakness. The spot market transactions are weak, the steel mill resumption rhythm is accelerating, but the five major steel products' output is decreasing month - on - month. The demand is seasonally weakening, and the inventory is accumulating rapidly. There is short - term downward adjustment pressure in the futures market, but there are still macro disturbances before the Two Sessions, and the downward space is limited [10] - Iron ore: The hot metal output has slightly rebounded, and the port inventory has decreased. The global shipment volume has slightly declined month - on - month. The supply is expected to be relatively loose, the demand is stable, and the overall inventory pressure is still accumulating. The futures market is under pressure, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [10] - Scrap steel: The supply and demand are seasonally decreasing, and the steel mill replenishment is basically completed. The supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally, and it is expected that the spot price will oscillate before the holiday [12] - Coke: The supply has slightly increased, and the replenishment is basically completed. The supply has increased month - on - month, the demand is supported by rigid demand, and the inventory is in a healthy supply - demand structure. The spot is expected to remain stable, and the futures market will follow the coking coal [13][14] - Coking coal: The middle and upstream are de - stocking before the festival, and the price is oscillating with low volatility. The supply is expected to decline before the holiday, the import is at a high level, the demand is decreasing, and the price is oscillating with low volatility. The spot is expected to oscillate, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely [15][16] - Glass: The contradictions before the holiday are limited, and the inventory has increased month - on - month. The supply has disturbance expectations, the demand is weak, the inventory is high, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [17] - Soda ash: The supply remains at a high level, and the inventory has increased month - on - month. The supply has rebounded month - on - month, the demand is weakening, the supply and demand are in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [17][19] - Manganese silicon: The cost is firm, and the post - holiday inventory is expected to increase. The upstream inventory is high, the cost is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the supply is strong. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate around the cost [19][20] - Ferrosilicon: The supply - demand contradictions are not significant, and the cost support still exists. The cost support is strengthening, the demand is weakening, the supply is at a low level, and it is expected that the futures price will run at a low level around the cost [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Views - The current supply and demand in the steel market are both weak, with steel prices showing small fluctuations [1]. - The trading atmosphere in the glass and soda ash market is cold, and the prices are weakly oscillating [1]. - The market fluctuations of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have weakened, and the alloys are oscillating within a narrow range [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The main glass contract showed a weakly oscillating trend throughout the day. With the Spring Festival holiday approaching, the trading volume decreased, and the trading atmosphere in the spot and futures markets was cold [1]. - Soda Ash: The main soda ash contract continued to operate weakly, with narrow - range oscillations. The trading atmosphere in the spot market was cold, and the market was mainly for rigid - demand purchases [1]. Supply and Demand Logic - Glass: The fundamentals are still weak. There is an increasing expectation of production suspension in the Shahe area, which supports the market. However, the downstream is in the traditional consumption off - season, and the demand is cold. The current low price allows the market to tolerate higher inventory. In the short term, it will continue to operate in an oscillating manner [1]. - Soda Ash: The supply of soda ash remains loose. With the progress of new production projects, the supply pressure continues to increase. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream consumption shows a seasonal decline due to more cold repairs. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is still at a high level, and the de - stocking process is slow, with large overall supply - demand contradictions [1]. Strategy - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating [2] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Market Analysis - Silicomanganese: The silicomanganese futures showed a small - scale oscillation, and the volatility decreased compared to the previous period. The spot market was stable. There were new ignition situations in northern factories, with the price of 6517 in the northern market ranging from 5580 - 5680 yuan/ton and in the southern market from 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures followed the overall black market and operated weakly. The spot market was weak, and the market was full of a strong wait - and - see sentiment. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5850 - 6000 yuan/ton [3]. Supply and Demand Logic - Silicomanganese: The fundamentals of silicomanganese have improved. There is an expectation of an increase in molten iron production, and the demand for silicomanganese has marginally improved. However, the inventory pressure is still large, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose. The recent South African tariff policy may increase the cost of manganese ore, and attention should be paid to the cost support of manganese ore and inventory changes [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The fundamental contradictions of ferrosilicon are controllable. Enterprises have actively reduced production loads. Considering the resumption of production in steel mills, the demand for ferrosilicon is expected to improve marginally. The overall over - capacity of ferrosilicon suppresses the price increase, and continuous attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation and power price policies in production areas [3]. Strategy - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: February 12, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [4] 2. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 3. Core Viewpoints - Soda Ash: The current soda ash market is under continuous pressure, with the main contradiction being the structural imbalance of continuous supply expansion and relatively shrinking demand. Although the inventory level is in the lower - middle range in the past year, the subsequent inventory accumulation trend is expected to continue, and the oversupply pattern has not been fundamentally alleviated. In the short term, the market may be mainly in wide - range fluctuations; in the long - term, there is still downward price pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies, and currently, it is advisable to stay cautious and observe [8]. - Glass: The glass market is operating under the marginal cost pricing logic in the context of "weak supply and demand". The spot price fluctuates around the cost line, restricted by high inventory and pending production capacity above and the possible cold - repair wave of production lines due to industry losses below. Currently, the price trend is more driven by sentiment, and the price has limited room to fall further. In the long - term, with the relatively loose domestic monetary policy and the expectation of post - Spring Festival policy support for the real estate market, there may be a strong trend in the future. The subsequent focus is on the actual progress of production line cold - repairs and the marginal changes in supply and demand [9]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Futures Data on February 11**: The opening price of SA605 was 1171, the highest was 1184, the lowest was 1162, the closing price was 1178, with a change of 0 and a change rate of 0%. The opening price of SA609 was 1233, the highest was 1246, the lowest was 1227, the closing price was 1240, with a change of - 1 and a change rate of - 0.08%. The持仓 volume of SA605 was 117.97 million lots, with a decrease of 6514 lots, and that of SA609 was 18.00 million lots, with a decrease of 3256 lots [7]. - **Soda Ash Market Analysis**: The main contract SA605 fluctuated on February 11. The supply - demand fundamentals showed continuous pressure, with supply expansion and demand contraction. The inventory accumulation trend is expected to continue, and the cost support is weakening. Short - term wide - range fluctuations, long - term downward pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies and currently observe [8]. - **Glass Futures Data on February 11**: The opening price of FG605 was 1070, the highest was 1082, the lowest was 1062, the closing price was 1071, with a change of - 8 and a change rate of - 0.74%. The opening price of FG609 was 1160, the highest was 1178, the lowest was 1158, the closing price was 1168, with a change of - 4 and a change rate of - 0.34%. The持仓 volume of FG605 was 108.58 million lots, with an increase of 4514 lots, and that of FG609 was 18.37 million lots, with an increase of 6979 lots [7]. - **Glass Market Analysis**: The main contract FG2605 fluctuated weakly. The market operates under the "weak supply and demand" marginal cost pricing logic. The spot price fluctuates around the cost line, restricted by inventory and production capacity above and the possible cold - repair wave below. Currently, the price is sentiment - driven, with limited downward space. In the long - term, there may be policy support, and the focus is on production line cold - repairs and supply - demand changes [9]. 4.2 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of soda ash and glass active contracts, soda ash weekly output, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda ash market price, and flat glass output, with data sources from Wind, iFind, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [12][17][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Steel**: Before the Spring Festival, terminal demand for steel shrinks, trading is lackluster, inventory accumulation of rebar accelerates year - on - year, and hot - rolled coil shifts from inventory reduction to accumulation. The fundamentals are weakening. Blast furnace profits are stable, leading to stable output, while EAF output is likely to significantly reduce. Supply is relatively stronger than demand, and falling raw material prices further suppress the market, though cost and policy provide support at the bottom [3]. - **Iron Ore**: On the supply side, overseas shipments of iron ore decline seasonally, and the rainy season in the Southern Hemisphere may affect Australian ore shipments. On the demand side, steel mills' restocking is nearly complete, hot - metal production is expected to rise, but it's the off - season for terminal consumption. Port inventories are accumulating above the seasonal norm, with high inventory pressure, and reduced market risk appetite is suppressing prices [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Before the festival, domestic coking coal mines reduce production, leading to a seasonal contraction in coking coal supply. Imported coal arrivals are at a low level, and there is an inverted price difference between domestic and international markets. The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, improving coking profits. Coke production is expected to pick up, and steel mills'复产 is leading to a slow increase in demand. In the short term, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the post - festival resumption of production rhythm is the key factor to watch [34]. - **Ferroalloys**: Both silicon manganese and silicon iron face a game between cost support and downstream terminal inventory accumulation. Manganese ore prices are firm, providing bottom - line support. Ferroalloy profits have rebounded but are still in the red, and production remains low. Steel mills'复产 may drive demand, but the off - season for downstream steel consumption limits demand growth. Silicon manganese has a large inventory base and high de - stocking pressure, while the fundamentals of silicon iron are slightly better [48]. - **Soda Ash**: The rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken, and its price is oscillating weakly, with industrial contradictions still accumulating. If the futures price rises, there is some restocking space for mid - stream players such as futures - cash arbitrageurs, but the demand elasticity is limited. The downward price space needs to be opened up by inventory accumulation. In terms of supply - demand, with the release of new production capacities, daily soda ash output is at a high level, and the medium - to - long - term supply is expected to remain high. The inventory of the photovoltaic glass industry is at a high level, daily melting is temporarily stable, and overall rigid demand is weakening. The heavy - soda balance remains in surplus. Soda ash exports remain high, alleviating domestic pressure to some extent [67]. - **Glass**: Market news indicates that due to environmental protection pressure, four coal - fired production lines in Shahe may be cold - repaired before the Spring Festival, with a total daily melting capacity of 2,700 tons. Coupled with the 1,200 - ton cold - repair of Dongtai Zhongbo last week and the expected 1,000 - ton cold - repair of Deyang Xinyi before the Spring Festival, float glass will experience concentrated cold - repair before the Spring Festival, which is slightly beyond expectations. The daily melting capacity will drop to around 146,000 - 147,000 tons. Although there are many new production lines to be ignited in Shahe, the earliest they can be implemented is after the Spring Festival, and it will take months to produce products. The pre - festival concentrated cold - repair helps relieve the inventory and spot pressure after the Spring Festival. Float glass is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the high inventory in the middle - stream is a risk point. If a negative feedback occurs, the spot pressure will be large [91]. Summary by Related Categories Steel - **Price Data**: On February 11, 2026, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3132 yuan/ton, 05 contract was 3054 yuan/ton, and 10 contract was 3103 yuan/ton. The closing price of hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3273 yuan/ton, 05 contract was 3228 yuan/ton, and 10 contract was 3247 yuan/ton. The rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in various regions remained stable compared to the previous day [4][9][12]. - **Ratio and Spread Data**: The 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4, and the 01 rebar/01 coke ratio was 2. The 01 - 05 month spread of rebar was 78, and that of hot - rolled coil was 45 [4][20]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On February 11, 2026, the closing price of iron ore 01 contract was 733.5 yuan/ton, 05 contract was 762.5 yuan/ton, and 09 contract was 745 yuan/ton. The 01 basis was 31 yuan/ton, 05 basis was 1.5 yuan/ton, and 09 basis was 19 yuan/ton [24]. - **Fundamental Data**: As of February 6, 2026, the daily average hot - metal output was 228.58 tons, the port desilting volume of 45 ports was 341.08 tons, the apparent demand of five major steel products was 761 tons, the global shipment volume was 2535.3 tons, the Australia - Brazil shipment volume was 1881.1 tons, the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2361.3 tons, the inventory at 45 ports was 17140.71 tons, the inventory of 247 steel mills was 10316.64 tons, and the available days for 247 steel mills were 36.55 days [28]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Price and Spread Data**: On February 11, 2026, the 09 - 01 spread of coking coal was - 173.5, the 05 - 09 spread was - 80, and the 01 - 05 spread was 253.5. The 09 - 01 spread of coke was - 90, the 05 - 09 spread was - 75, and the 01 - 05 spread was 165. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in various regions showed different degrees of change compared to the previous day and the previous week [35][37][38]. - **Profit Data**: The on - disk coking profit was - 37 yuan/ton, the main ore - coke ratio was 0.457, the main rebar - coke ratio was 1.832, and the main coke - coal ratio was 1.474 [37]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On February 10, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 40, the 01 - 05 spread was 144, the 05 - 09 spread was - 60, and the 09 - 01 spread was - 84. The spot prices in different regions showed a slight decline compared to the previous week [49]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On February 11, 2026, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 176, the 01 - 05 spread was 104, the 05 - 09 spread was - 42, and the 09 - 01 spread was - 62. The spot prices in various regions remained stable [50][52]. Soda Ash - **Price and Spread Data**: On February 11, 2026, the closing price of soda ash 05 contract was 1178 yuan/ton, 09 contract was 1240 yuan/ton, and 01 contract was 1288 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 62, the 9 - 1 month spread was - 48, and the 1 - 5 month spread was 110. The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in various regions remained stable [68]. - **Production and Inventory Data**: The daily production of soda ash is at a high level, the inventory of the photovoltaic glass industry is at a high level, and the rigid demand is weakening. Soda ash exports remain high [67]. Glass - **Price and Spread Data**: On February 11, 2026, the closing price of glass 05 contract was 1087 yuan/ton, 09 contract was 1189 yuan/ton, and 01 contract was 1226 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 102, the 9 - 1 month spread was - 37, and the 1 - 5 month spread was 139 [92]. - **Production and Sales Data**: The daily production and sales data of glass in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China regions showed fluctuations in the recent period [92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is in a clear off - season pattern, with steel prices fluctuating weakly. Glass and soda ash markets also show a weakening trend due to shrinking downstream demand. The double - silicon market in the black sector is in a state of consolidation [1][3] - The glass market has an increasing expectation of production line cold - repair in the Shahe area, which provides some support to the market. The soda ash supply pressure is increasing with new projects, and the downstream consumption is seasonally declining [1] - The fundamentals of silicon manganese have improved slightly, but the inventory pressure is still high. The fundamentals of silicon iron are controllable, and the demand is expected to improve marginally [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The main glass contract fluctuated weakly yesterday, and the trading volume decreased approaching the Spring Festival. The spot price was stable, and downstream enterprises mainly made purchases based on rigid demand [1] - Soda Ash: The main soda ash contract continued to show a weakening trend, and the market sentiment was cautious. In the traditional off - season, the spot market mainly had transactions based on rigid demand [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: There is a strong expectation of production line cold - repair in the Shahe area, which supports the market. However, the fundamental contradictions have not been effectively resolved, and attention should be paid to cold - repair progress, terminal demand recovery, and coal price impact on costs [1] - Soda Ash: The current production of soda ash is high, and the supply pressure is increasing with new projects. Downstream consumption is seasonally declining, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is high, and the de - stocking process is slow. Attention should be paid to new project situations [1] Strategy - Glass: Expected to fluctuate [2] - Soda Ash: Expected to fluctuate weakly [2] Double - Silicon (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) Market Analysis - Silicon Manganese: The silicon manganese futures weakened yesterday, and the spot market was filled with a festive atmosphere. The price of 6517 in the northern market was 5580 - 5680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon Iron: The silicon iron futures fluctuated downward, the market was weak, and the sentiment of cautious waiting and seeing was strong. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production area was 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron was 5850 - 6000 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon Manganese: The fundamentals have improved, and the demand is expected to increase marginally. However, the inventory pressure is still high, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. The South African tariff policy may increase the manganese ore cost, and attention should be paid to cost support and inventory changes [3] - Silicon Iron: The fundamental contradictions are controllable, and enterprises have actively reduced production loads. Considering the resumption of steel mills, the demand is expected to improve marginally. The overall over - capacity suppresses the price increase, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation and power price policies in production areas [3] Strategy - Both silicon manganese and silicon iron are expected to fluctuate [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - The demand for steel before the festival has declined, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures market is weak. The resumption of production in steel mills is slow, but there are disturbances in the iron ore shipping end, and the futures market shows signs of stabilization. As the winter storage is coming to an end, the support for coking coal and coke replenishment is gradually weakening, and the support for the futures market is limited. There are disturbances in the glass supply end, but the supply - demand surplus suppresses the futures price. In the short term, the futures market has downward adjustment pressure, but there are still macro disturbances before the Two Sessions, and the downside space is limited [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Iron Element - The inventory pressure continues to increase, and there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side. The current market has average expectations for post - festival demand, and the futures market is under pressure. However, important meetings will be held after the festival, and there are still macro expectations. After the rapid decline of the futures market, the pressure has been released. Pay attention to market sentiment changes. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment is approaching the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [2] 2. Carbon Element - The subsequent growth space of coke supply is limited, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot is expected to remain stable, and the futures market is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal. Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of coking coal are expected to decline. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of production in coal mines is still restricted, and the fundamentals of coking coal may continue to be healthy. The spot is expected to oscillate [2] 3. Alloys - In the manganese - silicon market, supply is stronger than demand, and the pressure on upstream inventory reduction is increasing. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling - hedging pressure. It is expected that the futures price of the main manganese - silicon contract will oscillate around the cost. In the silicon - iron market, both supply and demand are weak, and the fundamental contradictions are limited. However, the trading activity in the market around the Spring Festival is low, and the upward driving force of the futures market is insufficient. It is expected that the silicon - iron futures price will run at a low level around the cost [3] 4. Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of disturbances in the glass supply, but the inventory of the middle and downstream is moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price. The overall supply - demand of soda ash is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [3] 5. Individual Commodity Analysis Steel - Before the festival, the demand weakens, and the futures market is weak. The spot market trading is weak. The profitability of steel mills remains stable, the resumption of production in steel mills is slow, the molten iron output increases slightly, the electric furnaces begin to shut down one after another, and the output of five major steel products decreases slightly. The demand for building materials weakens seasonally, and the manufacturing demand is also in the off - season. The pressure of steel inventory accumulation is emerging, and the fundamentals are gradually accumulating contradictions. In the short term, the futures market has downward adjustment pressure, but there are still macro disturbances before the Two Sessions, and the downside space is limited [7] Iron Ore - The fundamentals are weakening, and the price is under pressure to oscillate. The global shipping volume has decreased slightly. If there are no other sudden disturbances, the supply side is expected to remain relatively loose. The demand for molten iron is still stable, and steel mills are accelerating the replenishment before the Spring Festival. As the replenishment progresses, the support for the price may gradually weaken. The inventory pressure is still accumulating, and the market sentiment has weakened recently. The futures market is under pressure. After the festival, the Two Sessions will be held, so pay attention to market sentiment changes [7][8] Scrap Steel - The electric furnaces are gradually shutting down, and the arrival of scrap steel at steel mills has decreased. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment is approaching the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [9] Coke - Before the festival, the sentiment is average, and the futures market is under pressure to operate. The supply of coke has increased month - on - month, the demand is supported by rigid demand, and the inventory in steel mills has increased. The supply - demand structure of coke is relatively healthy. After the spot price increase is implemented, it remains stable for the time being, and the futures market still follows the cost - end coking coal [10] Coking Coal - More coal mines are on holiday, and the futures and spot are under pressure to oscillate. Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of coking coal are expected to decline. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of production in coal mines is still restricted, and the fundamentals of coking coal may continue to be healthy. The spot is expected to oscillate, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely under the influence of capital sentiment [11] Glass - Before the festival, the contradictions are limited, and the price oscillates. There are expectations of disturbances in the supply, but the inventory of the middle and downstream is moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price [12] Soda Ash - The supply remains at a high level, and the price oscillates. The supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious changes, and the industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. The downstream demand has a downward trend, and the dynamic surplus expectation is further intensified. The spot price may return to the price - cut channel, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [12][15] Manganese - Silicon - The inventory tends to increase, and there is still pressure above. The upstream inventory of manganese - silicon is high, but the cost price is firm, which makes it difficult for the futures price to continue to fall. The market trading is cold before the holiday, and the demand support for the price is weakening. The supply may increase after the festival, and the market inventory may further accumulate. It is expected that the futures price of the main manganese - silicon contract will oscillate around the cost [16] Silicon - Iron - The trading atmosphere has become lighter, and the cost still provides support. The black - plate is under pressure in the off - season, and the market trading is rare before the holiday. The cost support of silicon - iron has become stronger. The demand support for the price is weakening, the production of silicon - iron remains at a low level, and the trading activity is low around the Spring Festival. It is expected that the silicon - iron futures price will run at a low level around the cost [18] 6. Index Information - On February 10, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities is 2383.17, up 0.35%; the commodity 20 index is 2722.24, up 0.43%; the industrial products index is 2281.60, up 0.12%. The steel industry chain index on February 10, 2026, is 1928.47, with a daily decline of 0.38%, a decline of 2.68% in the past 5 days, a decline of 4.76% in the past month, and a decline of 2.40% since the beginning of the year. The PPI commodity index is 1404.94, up 0.04% [104][105]

Report Date - The report is dated February 10, 2026 [1] Steel Report Core View - The blast furnace operating rate remains at a high level, while the production of electric furnaces has significantly decreased seasonally due to the Spring Festival. Terminal demand has further shrunk, with transactions showing a situation of "prices but no market". Inventory has continued to accumulate, with the accumulation rate of rebar accelerating year-on-year, and hot-rolled coils having shifted from destocking to stockpiling. The significant increase in hot-rolled coil warehouse receipts has exerted upward pressure on coil prices. Overall, finished steel products are oscillating weakly and may test the lower limit of the box-shaped oscillation [3]. Price Data - Rebar: On February 10, 2026, the closing prices of the 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3,133 yuan/ton, 3,052 yuan/ton, and 3,097 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - Hot-rolled coils: On February 10, 2026, the closing prices of the 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3,263 yuan/ton, 3,220 yuan/ton, and 3,239 yuan/ton respectively [4]. Spread Data - Rebar spreads: The 01 - 05 spread was 81 yuan/ton, the 05 - 10 spread was -45 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was -36 yuan/ton on February 10, 2026 [4]. - Hot-rolled coil spreads: The 01 - 05 spread was 43 yuan/ton, the 05 - 10 spread was -19 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was -24 yuan/ton on February 10, 2026 [4]. Iron Ore Report Core View - The supply and demand situation is significantly weak. Overseas shipments have seasonally decreased, and attention should be paid to the impact of the rainy season in the Southern Hemisphere on Australian shipments. Steel mills have decent profits, and molten iron production is expected to steadily increase. Terminal steel consumption has entered the pre - holiday off - season. The accumulation rate of social inventory is slower than in previous years, and port inventory has continued to accumulate above the seasonal level, facing significant pressure. Market risk appetite is low, and prices are under pressure [21]. Price Data - On February 10, 2026, the closing prices of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 732 yuan/ton, 761.5 yuan/ton, and 744 yuan/ton respectively. The daily changes were 0, 0, and 1 yuan/ton respectively, and the weekly changes were -17, -16, and -16 yuan/ton respectively [22]. Fundamental Data - On February 6, 2026, the average daily molten iron production was 228.58 tons, the 45 - port desilting volume was 341.08 tons, and the global shipment volume was 2,535.3 tons [26]. Coking Coal and Coke Report Core View - As the Chinese New Year approaches, domestic mines have reduced production, and the supply of coking coal has seasonally shrunk. The domestic and foreign prices of imported coal are inverted, and the arrival volume is at a low level. The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, and coking profits have improved. The resumption of production of blast furnace steel mills has been slow, and the short - term supply and demand are relatively loose. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production rhythm of mines and steel mills after the Spring Festival. There may be a supply - demand mismatch under the background of tight seaborne coal imports [33]. Price Data - On February 10, 2026, the 09 - 01 spread of coking coal was -175 yuan/ton, the 05 - 09 spread was -77.5 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was 252.5 yuan/ton [34][36]. - On February 10, 2026, the 09 - 01 spread of coke was -94 yuan/ton, the 05 - 09 spread was -74.5 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was 168.5 yuan/ton [36]. Ferroalloy Report Core View - Cost support and the pressure of the downstream terminal steel inventory accumulation are in a game. Silicon manganese is facing its own high - inventory pressure, and the manganese ore quotation provides bottom support. Ferroalloy production is already at a low level, and it is difficult to see a significant reduction in production. The resumption of production of steel mills may drive an increase in molten iron, but the demand increase is limited due to the off - season inventory accumulation of terminal steel products. The decline in finished steel products suppresses prices, and in the short term, it will maintain a range - bound oscillation [48]. Price Data - For silicon iron on February 9, 2026, the basis in Ningxia was 26 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Shaanxi, and Gansu were 5,370 yuan/ton, 5,390 yuan/ton, 5,300 yuan/ton, 5,400 yuan/ton, and 5,400 yuan/ton respectively [49]. - For silicon manganese on February 10, 2026, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 182 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, Guangxi, and Yunnan were 5,570 yuan/ton, 5,650 yuan/ton, 5,700 yuan/ton, 5,750 yuan/ton, and 5,700 yuan/ton respectively [50][53]. Soda Ash Report Core View - There is an expectation of weakening rigid demand, and soda ash is oscillating weakly, with industrial contradictions still accumulating. If the futures price rises, there is a certain restocking space for middle - stream players such as those involved in futures - cash arbitrage, but the demand elasticity is limited due to the general demand situation. The downward price space needs inventory accumulation to open up. In terms of supply and demand, as new production capacity gradually releases output, the daily production of soda ash is at a high level, and the expectation of high - level long - term supply of soda ash remains unchanged. The inventory of the photovoltaic glass industry is at a high level, the daily melting volume is temporarily stable, and the overall rigid demand is moderately weak. The balance of heavy soda ash continues to be in surplus. Soda ash exports remain at a high level, which continues to relieve domestic pressure to a certain extent [68]. Price Data - On February 10, 2026, the closing prices of the 05, 09, and 01 contracts of soda ash were 1,171 yuan/ton, 1,234 yuan/ton, and 1,282 yuan/ton respectively. The daily changes were -10 yuan/ton, -9 yuan/ton, and -4 yuan/ton respectively, and the daily decline rates were -0.85%, -0.72%, and -0.31% respectively [69]. Glass Report Core View - According to market news, due to environmental protection pressure, four coal - fired production lines in Shahe may undergo cold repair before the Spring Festival, with a total daily melting volume of 2,700 tons. There may be more definite news in the next few days. Coupled with the 1,200 - ton cold repair of Dongtai Zhongbo last week and the expectation of 1,000 - ton cold repair of Deyang Xinyi before the Spring Festival, it means that float glass will experience concentrated cold repair before the Spring Festival, slightly exceeding expectations. The daily melting volume will decline to around 146,000 - 147,000 tons. Although there are many new production lines to be ignited in the Shahe area, even the earliest ones will not be implemented until after the Spring Festival, and it will take several months to produce products. This wave of pre - Spring Festival concentrated cold repair will help relieve the inventory accumulation pressure and spot price pressure after the Spring Festival. In terms of supply and demand, float glass is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Regardless of how the supply expectation changes, the high inventory of the glass middle - stream is a risk point. Currently, it seems that the terminal may not be able to digest it, so once a negative feedback occurs, the spot price pressure will be significant [91]. Price Data - On February 10, 2026, the closing prices of the 05, 09, and 01 contracts of glass were 1,087 yuan/ton, 1,189 yuan/ton, and 1,224 yuan/ton respectively. The daily changes were 23 yuan/ton, 19 yuan/ton, and -9 yuan/ton respectively, and the daily increase/decrease rates were 2.16%, 1.62%, and -0.73% respectively [92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment is average, and steel prices are fluctuating weakly. The supply - demand contradictions in the glass and soda ash markets remain unresolved, leading to wide - range fluctuations. For double - silicon, the pre - holiday replenishment is nearing the end, causing significant declines in double - silicon futures [1][3] - Glass is expected to show an oscillatory trend, while soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly. Both silicon manganese and silicon iron are expected to show an oscillatory trend [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The main glass contract showed wide - range fluctuations yesterday, with the open interest steadily increasing as the market rebounded and high market activity. Spot prices fluctuated with the market, and downstream buyers mainly made purchases based on rigid demand [1] - Soda Ash: The main soda ash contract showed a weak - oscillatory trend yesterday, with obvious multi - short game. The short - position open interest increased, spot prices stabilized, and buyers mainly replenished stocks based on rigid demand [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: Glass production decreased slightly year - on - year due to cold - repair and production cuts, alleviating supply pressure and providing some support for prices. However, the downstream is still in the traditional off - season, and the inventory - replenishment sentiment is low, limiting the upside space for prices. The absolute glass price is currently low, and the tolerance for inventory during the Spring Festival is high. The fundamental contradictions have not been effectively resolved [1] - Soda Ash: The current production of soda ash is high, and with the advancement of new projects, the supply - side pressure is increasing. Downstream consumption shows a seasonal decline as cold - repair increases. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers remains at a high level, and the de - stocking process is slow, resulting in significant supply - demand contradictions [1] Strategy - Glass: Oscillatory [2] - Soda Ash: Weakly oscillatory [2] Double - Silicon (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) Market Analysis - Silicon Manganese: As the Chinese New Year approaches, raw - material replenishment is nearing the end, and the silicon manganese futures dropped significantly yesterday. The silicon manganese market is oscillating, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment at the beginning of the week. The mainstream steel procurement has not yet started. The price of 6517 silicon manganese in the northern market is 5580 - 5680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 5720 - 5770 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon Iron: The silicon iron futures followed the overall downward trend of the black - metal market yesterday. The silicon iron market is operating weakly, with strong cautious wait - and - see sentiment. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural lumps in the main production areas is 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron is 5850 - 6000 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon Manganese: The fundamentals of silicon manganese have improved, and there is an expectation of an increase in hot - metal production in the future, leading to a marginal improvement in silicon manganese demand. However, the inventory pressure is still large, and the supply - demand pattern remains relatively loose. The recent tariff policy in South Africa may increase the cost of manganese ore, so attention should be paid to the cost support of manganese ore and inventory changes [3] - Silicon Iron: The fundamental contradictions of silicon iron are controllable, and enterprises are actively reducing production loads. Considering the resumption of production by steel mills, the demand for silicon iron is expected to improve marginally. The overall over - capacity of silicon iron suppresses the price increase. Continuous attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation of silicon iron and the electricity - price policy in the production areas [3] Strategy - Silicon Manganese: Oscillatory [4] - Silicon Iron: Oscillatory [4]