Market Overview - Emerging markets led the decline with a drop of 6.9%, while developed markets fell by 3.3% during the week of March 2 to March 6, 2026 [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the worst performer among U.S. stocks, down 3.0%, followed by the S&P 500 at 2.0% and the Nasdaq at 1.2% [1] - The telecommunications and energy sectors showed gains, while materials and healthcare sectors lagged [1][2] Economic Concerns - The U.S. labor market showed signs of weakness with a significant drop in non-farm payrolls, decreasing by 92,000 in February, which was far below market expectations [2] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.44%, with household survey data indicating three consecutive months of negative employment growth [2] - Despite the weak labor data, the services PMI rose to 56.1, marking a 2.3-point increase from the previous month, indicating strength in the services sector [2] Geopolitical Tensions - The escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran has led to increased oil prices, with expectations of a 10% rise in oil prices lasting for one month, which could impact core inflation and GDP growth [3][4] - The report anticipates that the conflict may last 4-5 weeks, with potential scenarios ranging from temporary supply disruptions to more severe impacts on inflation and economic growth [3][4] Market Sentiment Shift - The report suggests a shift in market sentiment from an "AI narrative" to a focus on "macro realities," with stagflation risks becoming a primary concern [4] - The combination of weak labor data and geopolitical tensions is creating a challenging environment for the Federal Reserve, which may face difficulties in managing inflation and economic growth [4] Upcoming Data and Events - Key economic data to watch includes U.S. CPI on March 11, initial jobless claims on March 12, and durable goods orders on March 13 [5]

Group 1: Policy Information - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy this year, using various tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and gradually淡化 the quantitative intermediate targets [2] - The Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy this year, with a 100 - billion - yuan fiscal - financial policy to boost domestic demand and a 250 - billion - yuan consumer goods trade - in policy [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has officially included recycled lead in the futures delivery system, with the PB2703 contract being the first for recycled lead to participate in futures delivery [3] Group 2: Market Data Foreign Exchange and Gold Reserves - As of the end of February 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves were $3.4278 trillion, up $28.7 billion or 0.85% from the end of January, and gold reserves were 74.22 million ounces, up 30,000 ounces month - on - month [3] Commodity Market - Key commodities to focus on are urea, Shanghai copper, fuel oil, crude oil, and plastic [4] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.09%, precious metals 30.92%, oilseeds 8.10%, non - ferrous metals 25.64%, soft commodities 2.74%, coal - coking and steel ore 9.48%, energy 5.60%, chemicals 11.50%, grains 1.16%, and agricultural products 2.77% [4] Asset Performance - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.38% daily, - 0.93% monthly, and 3.91% yearly; S&P 500 fell 1.33% daily, - 2.02% monthly, and - 1.54% yearly; etc. [6] - Fixed - income: 10 - year Treasury bond futures had 0.00% daily, 0.13% monthly, and 0.63% yearly changes; etc. [6] - Commodity: WTI crude oil rose 13.31% daily, 36.53% monthly, and 59.63% yearly; LME copper fell 0.26% daily, - 3.21% monthly, and rose 2.98% yearly; etc. [6] - Other: US dollar index fell 0.09% daily, rose 1.34% monthly, and 0.70% yearly; CBOE volatility index rose 24.17% daily, 48.49% monthly, and 97.26% yearly [6]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the recent geopolitical conflicts have led to significant volatility in overseas markets, particularly in commodities and equities, with a shift towards "stagflation" expectations [6][7][12] - The impact of overseas stagflation on the domestic bond market is viewed as neutral to positive, suggesting that it may stabilize the bond market rather than create negative pressure [14][20] - The report emphasizes that the transmission paths of overseas asset price increases to the domestic bond market are primarily through stock-bond sentiment and inflation inputs, with the former likely providing more support to the bond market [14][16][22] Group 2 - The bond market has shown resilience despite external pressures, with the long-end and ultra-long-end bond pricing benefiting from risk-averse sentiment [22][24] - The report notes that the recent increase in PPI may not significantly impact the bond market, as the transmission of cost increases from upstream to downstream is often limited [16][20] - The report highlights that the domestic policy response to stagflation expectations may include monetary easing measures, which could further support the bond market [21][23] Group 3 - The weekly review of the bond market indicates a mixed performance in interest rates, with some rates declining while others increased, reflecting the ongoing volatility influenced by geopolitical events and policy expectations [24][29] - The report details that the yield spreads for government bonds have widened, indicating a shift in market dynamics, while credit spreads have generally narrowed [35][37] - The analysis of asset relative value shows that the yield differentials for various bond types have exhibited divergence, with some categories experiencing tightening while others have expanded [35][37]

Market Performance - S&P 500 index decreased by 2.0% this week, following a decline of 0.4% last week[1] - Nasdaq Composite index fell by 1.2%, compared to a 1.0% drop last week[1] - Russell 1000 Growth outperformed Russell 1000 Value, with declines of 0.7% and 3.5% respectively[1] Sector Performance - Software and Services sector saw a significant increase of 6.3%, while Household and Personal Products dropped by 7.5%[1] - A total of 4 sectors increased, while 20 sectors experienced declines this week[1] Fund Flows - Estimated fund flow for S&P 500 constituents was -$99.4 billion this week, a significant increase from -$31.9 billion last week[2] - Software and Services sector had a net inflow of $49.1 million, while Technology Hardware and Equipment saw an outflow of $41.6 million[2] Earnings Forecast - S&P 500 constituents' forward 12-month EPS expectations increased by 0.7% this week, consistent with the previous week[3] - Semiconductor Products and Equipment sector saw the largest upward revision in earnings expectations, increasing by 3.2%[3] Risk Factors - Economic fundamentals, international political situations, U.S. fiscal policies, and Federal Reserve monetary policies present uncertainties that could impact market performance[3]

Liquidity Data - The US dollar index rose 1.3% to 98.96, briefly hitting a three-month high before easing[2] - Brent crude oil surged 9.3% to US$93.3 amid geopolitical tensions[2] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 18.4 basis points to 4.13% due to rising inflation concerns[2] - Hong Kong equities saw net inflows of HK$8 billion from foreign investors during Feb 26–Mar 4, but reversed to net outflows of HK$29.9 billion during Mar 5–6[2] Sector Trends - Southbound capital significantly increased exposure to energy and banks while accelerating outflows from e-commerce and reducing holdings in biotech and insurance[2] - The strategic revaluation of oil and gas resources is ongoing, with global oilfield service capital expenditures recovering[7] - The report highlights a potential supply shock in oil prices, with Brent crude possibly reaching US$100+ per barrel if geopolitical tensions escalate[34]

Group 1: Global Investment Trends - Since 2026, there has been a systemic revaluation of "hardcore" supply chain assets, with capital flowing towards resource, technology, and manufacturing sectors, indicating a global rebalancing trend[1] - Investment enthusiasm for U.S. stocks remains strong, but the marginal inflow has weakened since 2026, with a notable shift from technology to commodities and energy sectors[1][21] - Foreign investment in U.S. stocks has not shown significant reduction, maintaining a consistent inflow trend despite geopolitical tensions[33] Group 2: U.S. Treasury Bonds and Dollar Dependency - Foreign official entities have not significantly reduced their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, but there is a trend of decreasing custodial amounts at the Federal Reserve, indicating a decline in trust[24][30] - As of December 2025, the pace of bond accumulation by European and Japanese entities has slowed, while China and India are in a trend of reducing their U.S. Treasury holdings[28] - The attractiveness of U.S. Treasury bonds to overseas private investors has declined in 2026, with significant reductions in inflows from European investors[29] Group 3: Gold Investment Dynamics - Since 2025, private sector demand for gold has significantly increased, becoming a more critical pricing factor compared to central bank purchases[38] - The asset size of commodity alternative funds, particularly those focused on gold, has been on a continuous rise since 2025, reflecting growing investor interest[39] - The ongoing restructuring of the global monetary system and geopolitical conflicts are expected to sustain a long-term bullish trend for gold prices[39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of the intensifying "asset shortage" in the credit bond market, the report aims to sort out the distribution of coupon assets of different credit varieties as of March 1, 2026, for investors' reference [3][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Credit Bond Market Overview - As of March 1, 2026, the total scale of traditional credit bonds (excluding convertible bonds, exchangeable bonds, and ABS) in the whole market was 480,013 billion yuan. Among them, the balance of urban investment bonds was 160,121 billion yuan, accounting for 33.4%; the balance of industrial bonds was 136,550 billion yuan, accounting for 28.4%; the balance of bank secondary perpetual bonds was 70,427 billion yuan, accounting for 14.7% [3][6] - As of March 1, 2026, the balance of high - coupon traditional credit bonds (with an exercise valuation yield of ≥2.1%) was 123,411 billion yuan, accounting for 25.7% of the total scale [3][6] 3.2 Urban Investment Bonds - As of March 1, 2026, the balance of public urban investment bonds was 87,491 billion yuan, of which the balance of high - coupon public urban investment bonds was 20,042 billion yuan, accounting for 22.9%. High - coupon public urban investment bonds were mainly distributed in regions such as Jiangsu, Shandong, Sichuan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Chongqing, Guangdong, and Shaanxi [7] - At the city level, cities such as Chengdu, Chongqing, Jinan, Beijing, Xi'an, Shenzhen, Wuhan, Tianjin, and Qingdao had a large scale of high - coupon public urban investment bonds, all exceeding 500 billion yuan. For institutions that want to extend the duration to increase returns but not too long, they can select bonds from the above regions [9][10] - At the issuer level, issuers such as Tianjin Urban Construction, Shuifa Group, and Xi'an High - tech had a high - coupon public urban investment bond balance of over 20 billion yuan. For 3 - 5Y bonds, institutions can focus on Tianjin Urban Construction, Hubei Lianfa, Qingdao Construction, Yu Aviation Port, and Kunshan Guochuang [10][11] - As of March 1, 2026, the balance of private urban investment bonds was 72,630 billion yuan, of which the balance of private urban investment bonds with an exercise valuation yield of ≥2.3% was 19,720 billion yuan, accounting for 27.2%. Regions with a large scale of private urban investment bonds with a yield of 2.3% and above included Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui, Sichuan, and Jiangxi [12] 3.3 Industrial Bonds - As of March 1, 2026, the total balance of industrial bonds in the whole market was 136,550 billion yuan, of which the balance of public industrial bonds was 127,526 billion yuan, accounting for 93.4%. The balance of high - coupon public industrial bonds was 35,143 billion yuan, accounting for 27.6% [14] - In terms of industry distribution, industries such as public utilities, comprehensive, transportation, building decoration, and real estate had a large scale of public industrial bonds, but the proportion of high - coupon public industrial bonds in public utilities and transportation industries was relatively small, while the proportion of high - valuation bonds in the real estate industry was relatively large [14][15] - Among non - perpetual public industrial bonds, the high - valuation bonds of AA+ and above real - estate companies with a yield of >2.5% had a large scale and relatively short durations, but due to the negative impact of the industry's fundamentals, they were not recommended as allocation targets. The high - valuation bonds of AA+ and above comprehensive companies with a yield of >2.5% had a large scale, but the remaining duration of the bonds was relatively long, which may be suitable for institutions with a long - term liability duration [16] - At the issuer level, energy and coal industry issuers such as Jinneng Power, Yunnan Energy, Jinneng Coal Industry, and Jizhong Energy, as well as comprehensive issuers such as Yunnan Investment and Control and Shenye Group, had a relatively large scale of public non - perpetual high - coupon industrial bonds. Jinneng Power, Yunnan Energy, and Jinneng Coal Industry had over 10 billion yuan of 3 - 5Y public non - perpetual high - coupon industrial bonds, and their issuer ratings were mainly AAA, which could be used as key targets to increase portfolio returns [20] 3.4 Financial Bonds 3.4.1 Bank Secondary Perpetual Bonds - As of March 1, 2026, the balance of bank secondary capital bonds was 43,784 billion yuan, and the balance of bank perpetual bonds was 26,643 billion yuan. The proportion of high - coupon bank secondary capital bonds was 28.4%, and the proportion of high - coupon bank perpetual bonds was 26.0% [24] - For 3 - 5Y bank secondary capital bonds, the yield was mostly concentrated in the range of 1.9 - 2.1%, and bonds with a yield of over 2.1% mainly came from bonds with a term of over 5Y. For bank perpetual bonds, bonds with a yield of over 2.1% mainly had a remaining exercise term of 3 - 5Y [24] - For 3 - 5Y high - coupon secondary capital bonds, institutions can focus on issuers such as China Guangfa Bank, China Minsheng Bank, Shanghai Pufa Bank, Tianjin Bank, Bohai Bank, Sichuan Bank, Hengfeng Bank, and Huishang Bank, whose high - coupon secondary capital bonds all exceeded 10 billion yuan [27] 3.4.2 Other Financial Bonds - As of March 1, 2026, the balance of other financial bonds (including commercial financial bonds) except bank secondary perpetual bonds was 112,915 billion yuan, of which the balance of high - coupon financial bonds was 9,470 billion yuan, accounting for only 8.4%. The proportion of bonds with an exercise valuation yield of 1.9% and below was 81.8% [30] - The scale of financial bonds with a remaining exercise term of less than 5Y accounted for 97.7%. Although the overall scale of high - coupon financial bonds was not large, most of the remaining exercise terms were within 5Y, with certain potential for return exploration [30] - Issuers such as Ping An Life Insurance, Cinda Asset Management, Guosen Securities, and Taikang Life Insurance had over 15 billion yuan of 3 - 5Y high - coupon financial bonds, and investors can pay appropriate attention to their outstanding bonds [32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the US-Iran conflict, oil prices are rising, the Fed's rate - cut expectations are weakening, and US bond yields are climbing rapidly. It is advisable to pay attention to domestic two - sessions policy signals and the change of the war situation and control risks [4]. - The economic recovery momentum needs further observation, and the domestic bond market is expected to continue its volatile trend, affected by stock market trends and inflation expectations [7]. - Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards precious metals, as short - term fluctuations are expected due to the adjustment of margin by CME and the geopolitical situation [10]. - The prices of most non - ferrous metals are supported by factors such as resource attributes and supply - demand relationships, but also face risks from geopolitical situations and market sentiment [13][15][18]. - The black - building materials sector is currently in a weak state, and the short - term core contradiction lies in inventory digestion and demand verification [32]. - The energy - chemical sector is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and different products have different investment strategies according to their supply - demand and cost situations [56][58][61]. - For agricultural products, different products have different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, and corresponding investment strategies are put forward [81][83][87]. 3. Summaries According to Different Categories 3.1 Macro - finance 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: Some flights from China to the Middle East have resumed, Israel will reopen its airspace on the 8th, US tech giants have signed a self - power supply commitment, the central bank will conduct 800 billion yuan of repurchase operations, and US economic data shows mixed results [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Pay attention to domestic two - sessions policy signals and the change of the war situation and control risks [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The yields of treasury bond futures have minor changes, the government has set economic growth targets, and the central bank has conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The economic recovery momentum is uncertain, and the bond market is expected to continue its volatile trend, affected by stock market trends and inflation expectations [7]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of gold and silver have declined, which may be related to the rise of US bond yields and the large - scale selling plan of the Polish central bank. CME has adjusted the margin of gold and silver futures, and global gold ETFs have seen continuous capital inflows [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude, as short - term fluctuations are expected due to the adjustment of margin by CME and the geopolitical situation [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Affected by the Middle East war, copper prices have declined, LME inventory has increased, and domestic social inventory has also changed [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the risk preference is affected by the geopolitical situation, the key mineral resource attribute supports copper prices. The short - term price has support, and the reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 100,000 - 102,500 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The price of aluminum has fallen after rising, the inventory has changed, and the trading situation in the spot market is different [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the domestic aluminum ingot inventory is at a high level, the price is still supported by factors such as the uncertainty of the Middle East war and the supply risk [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The price of zinc has a slight increase, and the inventory and basis have changed [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic zinc industry is weak, and the price may fluctuate widely during the conflict [18]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The price of lead has declined, and the inventory and basis have changed [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the lead ingot inventory has increased, the price is expected to stop falling and gradually recover [19]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel has declined, and the price of nickel ore and nickel iron has remained stable [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the medium term, the price of nickel is expected to rise slowly, while in the short term, it is expected to fluctuate to digest inventory pressure [20]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin has declined, the supply is tight, and the demand has not been effectively reflected [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market has a strong sentiment of going long on tin, but it should not blindly chase the high. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [21]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate has increased, the production has increased, and the inventory has decreased [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - ore positive factors have been fully digested, and the price may fall back. Be cautious about going long [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina has increased, the basis and inventory have changed [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The increase in maintenance and the delay in production start have reduced the inventory accumulation. The futures price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is advisable to wait and see [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel has declined, the inventory has decreased, and the raw material price has remained stable [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure is increasing, but the market procurement atmosphere has improved. The price is expected to rise in a volatile manner [27]. 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy has fluctuated slightly, the inventory has decreased, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost has support, and the demand is expected to improve after the festival. The short - term price support is strong [29]. 3.3 Black - building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have minor changes, and the inventory and position have also changed [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The macro - policy supports the demand for steel, but the current inventory is high, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [33][34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas supply is expected to recover, and the demand is affected by short - term production restrictions. The price is expected to fluctuate [34]. 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke have increased slightly, and the spot prices are at a premium [36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, the prices of coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate, and there is a risk of a phased decline. In the long term, there is a possibility of an upward trend [38][39]. 3.3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of glass has increased, and the inventory has increased. The price of soda ash has increased, and the inventory has also increased [40][42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is expected to be weak and volatile, and the soda ash market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock [41][43]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The price of manganese silicon has declined slightly, and the price of ferrosilicon has increased slightly. The technical forms of both have changed [44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate, and the black - building materials sector is in a weak state. Pay attention to the cost - push and supply - contraction factors [45][46]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon has increased slightly, and the supply and demand are expected to increase. The price of polysilicon has increased slightly, and the inventory is high [47][49]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and the price of polysilicon is expected to be under pressure [48][50]. 3.4 Energy - Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber has a slight decline, and the price of butadiene rubber has increased. The开工 rate of tire enterprises has recovered, and the inventory has increased [52][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Trade flexibly according to the disk, set stop - losses, and consider hedging strategies [54]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil has increased significantly, and the inventories of related refined products have changed [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a short - term bearish strategy, do long on the spread of different oil types, and short on the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil and the INE - Brent spread [56]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices and futures prices of methanol have changed [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current price has included the geopolitical premium, and it is advisable to take profits at high prices [58]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices and futures prices of urea have changed [59][60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, and it is advisable to short - sell [61]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait for the non - integrated profit of styrene to fall to a low level before considering long - positions [63]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the price may rebound due to the cost sentiment of crude oil [65][66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is a pressure of inventory accumulation, but there is an expectation of inventory reduction due to the tense situation in Iran. Pay attention to the opportunity of long - positions at low prices [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Observe the subsequent maintenance situation, and pay attention to the opportunity of long - positions following PX and crude oil [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of p - xylene has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PX is in a state of inventory accumulation in the short term and is expected to turn to inventory reduction in March. Pay attention to the opportunity of long - positions following crude oil [73]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is supported by factors such as the reduction of geopolitical influence and the seasonal demand [75]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP has decreased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term price is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and it is advisable to long - position the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [78]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The prices of live pigs have different trends in different regions, and the supply is greater than the demand in most areas [80]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a bearish view on the near - term contracts and a relatively bullish but cautious view on the far - term contracts [81]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The prices of eggs have minor changes, the supply is stable, and the inventory pressure has decreased [82]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the current price is supported, there is a potential pressure on the medium - term price [83]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The predicted production of Brazilian soybeans has been reduced, and the export and inventory data of soybeans have changed [84][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of CBOT soybeans has strengthened, but the domestic soybean inventory is high. Wait for the price to pull back before buying [87]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The export and production data of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia have changed, and the inventory of domestic oils and fats has decreased [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of oils and fats is driven by the rise of crude oil prices. It is advisable to buy at low prices [89]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The production data of sugar in India, Brazil, and Thailand have changed, and the price of raw sugar is at a low level [91]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Do not be overly bearish on raw sugar. It is advisable to buy a small amount of long - positions at low prices in the domestic market [92]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The predicted production of global cotton has decreased, and the export and inventory data of cotton have changed [93]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures have increased in position. Pay attention to the downstream start - up in March, and it is advisable to buy at low prices [94].

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,321, up 0.28% from the previous trading day, but down 1.21% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell to 4,796, down 0.69% for the day and down 13.05% year-to-date [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose to 4,108, increasing by 0.64% with a year-to-date gain of 3.52% [1] Currency Trends - The Renminbi Index stands at 98.580, up 0.35% over the past month and 2.08% over the past six months [2] - The US Dollar Index is at 98.771, with a monthly increase of 0.97% and a six-month increase of 1.03% [2] - The exchange rate for Renminbi to USD is 0.145, down 0.69% in the last month and down 3.40% over six months [2] Commodity Prices - Brent crude oil is priced at $82.250 per barrel, up 22.83% month-on-month and 27.43% over six months [3] - Gold is priced at $5,172.89 per ounce, reflecting an increase of 8.23% in the last month and 44.22% over six months [3] - Silver has seen a significant rise, priced at $84.664 per ounce, up 19.39% month-on-month and 106.48% over six months [3] Stock Market Insights - The Hong Kong stock market rebounded after three consecutive days of decline, with major financial and real estate indices recovering [5] - AIA Group saw a rebound of over 5%, becoming the largest blue-chip gainer, while HSBC and New World Development rose by over 2% [5] - The A-share market showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 4,100 points, up 0.64% [5] Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China announced a reverse repurchase operation of 800 billion RMB to maintain liquidity in the banking system [12] - The Eurozone's retail sales for January fell by 0.1%, missing market expectations of a 0.3% increase [13] - China's February consumer price index is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 0.2% [25] IPO and Market Activity - Recent IPOs include Hai Zhi Technology Group, which saw a first-day performance of 242.20% [23] - Upcoming IPOs include Youlesai Shared and Zhaowei Machinery, with significant interest expected [23][24] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect has shown increasing transaction volumes, indicating growing investor interest [20]

Group 1 - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is causing significant volatility in financial markets, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average experiencing a drop of over 1100 points during trading on March 5, ultimately closing down 1.61% [3][4] - International oil prices surged, with WTI crude oil futures for April rising over 8.5% to above $81 per barrel, marking the largest single-day increase since May 2020 [4] - Concerns about disruptions to oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz have intensified, with WTI and Brent crude prices increasing by over 20% and 17% respectively since the beginning of the week [4] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding the conflict remains high, with market analysts unable to predict the duration of the conflict or the extent of its impact on global energy supplies [5] - Key issues for the market include whether shipping through the Strait of Hormuz can resume and the potential duration of the war, with fears that prolonged conflict could negatively affect risk assets [6] - Reports indicate that Iranian military actions have escalated, including attacks on U.S. naval vessels and Israeli targets, further complicating the regional security landscape [7][8]