邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 主要观点： 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 东海期货分析师：明道雨 数据及事件要点： 1、2026年1月15日，央行举行新闻发布会。人民银行推出八项结构性货币政策措施，并强调在实施过程 中，将与财政贴息、担保和风险成本分担等财政政策协同配合。正通过下调结构性货币政策工具利率、 扩大再贷款额度、优化政策工具结构等多项举措，进一步加大对实体经济的精准支持力度，为经济稳定 增长和结构转型营造宽松适宜的货币金融环境。 2、12月新增人民币贷款9100亿元，预期8000亿元，前值3900亿元。12月社会融资规模增量为22075亿 元，预期19000亿元，前值为24926亿元，同比少增6462亿元；12月末，社会融资规模存量为442.12万亿 元，同比增长8.3%，较上月下降0.2%。12月M2同比增长8.5%，预期8.0%，前值8.0%，M2较上月上升 0.5%。 主要观点： 12月新增人民币贷款9100亿元，预期8000亿元，前值3900亿元；新增社会融资规模22075亿元，预期 19000亿元，前值为24 ...

【内容摘要】 1月15日，资金面明显改善；债市整体偏强震荡；转债市场主要指数集体上涨，转债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率普遍上行，主要欧洲经 济体10年期国债收益率走势分化。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《在中央城市工作会议上的讲话》】1月16日出版的第2期《求是》杂志将发表中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央 军委主席习近平的重要文章《在中央城市工作会议上的讲话》。文章提出了当前和今后一个时期城市工作的总体要求，强调要以新时代中国特色社会主义思 想为指导，深入贯彻党的二十大和二十届二中、三中全会精神，坚持和加强党的全面领导，认真践行人民城市理念，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，坚持因地制 宜、分类指导，以建设创新、宜居、美丽、韧性、文明、智慧的现代化人民城市为目标，以推动城市高质量发展为主题，以坚持城市内涵式发展为主线，以 推进城市更新为重要抓手，大力推动城市结构优化、动能转换、品质提升、绿色转型、文脉赓续、治理增效，牢牢守住城市安全底线，走出一条中国特色城 市现代化新路子。 【央行打出政策优化"组合拳"，八项措施加力支持经济】为继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，央行在2026年开年便先 ...

央行和外管局在最新的新闻发布会上提出了哪些关键政策变化？ 在最新的新闻发布会上，央行和外管局提出了几项关键政策变化。首先，货币 政策方面，央行强调要保持社会融资条件相对宽松，引导金融合理增长，并推 出了 8 项增量政策，其中 6 项为结构性工具。这些措施包括统一下调各类结构 性货币政策工具利率 0.25 个百分点，并增加 9,000 亿结构性货币政策工具额 度，其中支农支小再贷款额度提高 5,000 亿，科技创新和技术改造贷款额度增 加 4,000 亿。此外，还优化了智能智享再贷款和再贴现的使用范围，将支持对 象扩大到中型民营企业，并拓展碳减排、服务消费及养老再贷款工具的覆盖范 围。 央行发布会关键细节 20260115 摘要 央行倾向于稳健的货币政策，通过结构性工具而非总量宽松来支持经济， 如统一下调结构性货币政策工具利率 0.25 个百分点，并增加 9,000 亿 结构性货币政策工具额度，包括支农支小再贷款和科技创新贷款。 尽管市场预期不高，但 2026 年降准降息的可能性仍然存在，特别是三 季度经济增长压力较大时，人民币升值空间和银行息差压力缓解为货币 宽松提供了窗口。 预计 2026 年人民币汇率将保 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a moderately accommodative monetary policy in 2025, resulting in significant support for the real economy and a notable increase in social financing and loan balances [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Statistics - By the end of 2025, the total social financing stock reached 442.12 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.3% [1]. - The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 268.4 trillion yuan, growing by 6.3% year-on-year [1]. - The broad money supply (M2) increased by 8.5%, significantly outpacing the nominal GDP growth rate [2]. Group 2: Policy Implementation - The PBOC utilized various monetary policy tools to maintain ample liquidity and guide financial institutions to meet the effective financing needs of the real economy [2]. - The issuance of government bonds was accelerated, with a total issuance scale of 16 trillion yuan in 2025, net increasing by 6.6 trillion yuan [3]. - The PBOC's liquidity support through operations like reverse repos has stabilized market expectations and facilitated government bond issuance [3]. Group 3: Financing Structure - In 2025, the incremental social financing was 35.6 trillion yuan, with direct financing accounting for 46.9% of this total, marking a 7.8 percentage point increase compared to the last year of the 13th Five-Year Plan [4]. - The net financing from government bonds was 13.84 trillion yuan, and non-financial corporate bond financing reached 2.39 trillion yuan, reflecting a strong support for private enterprises [4]. - The balance of loans in the "Five Major Financial Articles" reached 107.7 trillion yuan, with significant growth in technology and green loans [6][7]. Group 4: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - The PBOC plans to continue implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy in 2026, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring a suitable monetary environment [8]. - There is still room for further reductions in the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, as the average reserve requirement ratio stands at 6.3% [9]. - The PBOC aims to lower comprehensive financing costs for enterprises by promoting transparency in loan costs and optimizing the financing environment [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing monetary policies to support high-quality development of the real economy, with a focus on increasing credit support and optimizing economic structure [2][3][4] - By the end of December 2025, the social financing scale stock increased by 8.3% year-on-year, and the broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.5%, significantly outpacing nominal GDP growth [2] - The PBOC plans to introduce eight policy measures to enhance credit allocation in key sectors, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates [3][4] Group 2 - The PBOC will merge the agricultural and small enterprise re-loan and rediscount quotas, increasing the agricultural and small enterprise re-loan quota by 500 billion yuan, with a dedicated quota of 1 trillion yuan for private enterprises [3] - The quota for re-loans supporting technological innovation and transformation will be increased from 800 billion yuan to 1.2 trillion yuan, expanding the support to high R&D investment private SMEs [3] - The PBOC aims to lower the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans to 30% in collaboration with financial regulatory authorities [3] Group 3 - In 2025, the average weighted interest rate for new corporate loans and personal housing loans was around 3.1%, a decrease of 2.5 and 2.6 percentage points respectively since the second half of 2018 [7] - By the end of 2025, the total RMB loan balance was approximately 271.91 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, indicating strong credit support for the real economy [7] - The manufacturing sector saw a 6.6% year-on-year increase in medium to long-term loans, while infrastructure and service sectors also experienced significant growth [7] Group 4 - The foreign exchange market in China is expected to operate stably, with a total trading volume of 42.6 trillion USD in 2025, and a net inflow of 302.1 billion USD for the year [5][6] - The proportion of enterprises conducting cross-border trade settlements in RMB is around 30%, which helps mitigate the impact of exchange rate fluctuations [6] - By the end of 2025, China's foreign assets and liabilities reached historical highs of 11.5 trillion and 7.5 trillion USD respectively, with foreign exchange reserves stable at 33,579 billion USD [5]

Monetary Policy and Financial Support - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, with the one-year relending rate decreasing from 1.5% to 1.25% [1] - The minimum down payment ratio for commercial housing loans has been reduced to 30%, and the relending quota for supporting agriculture and small enterprises has been increased by 500 billion yuan, with a total quota for private enterprises set at 1 trillion yuan [2][3] - The loan quota for technological innovation and transformation has been raised from 800 billion yuan to 1.2 trillion yuan, including support for private small and medium-sized enterprises with high R&D investment levels [2][3] Financial Market Data - As of the end of December, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 340.29 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.5% [3] - The total social financing scale for the year 2025 reached 35.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.34 trillion yuan compared to the previous year, with new RMB loans amounting to 16.27 trillion yuan [3] Regulatory Developments - The Financial Regulatory Bureau has emphasized the need for effective risk resolution for small financial institutions and the establishment of a normalized financing coordination mechanism for urban real estate [5] - The Ministry of Finance announced a tax exemption policy for foreign institutions investing in the domestic bond market, effective from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [8] Corporate Announcements - China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation has set a goal to advance reusable rocket technology and promote commercial aerospace development in 2026 [7] - Liou Technology announced a significant contract with CATL worth 120 billion yuan, but the stock will remain suspended for one additional day due to uncertainties [12] - Mu Yuan Co. has projected a net profit of 14.7 billion to 15.7 billion yuan for 2025, indicating a year-on-year decline of 12.20% to 17.79% [16] Stock Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up by 0.60%, the S&P 500 rising by 0.26%, and the Nasdaq increasing by 0.25% [17] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.6%, indicating a mixed performance among popular Chinese concept stocks [17]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to welcome a significant amount of incremental funds in 2026, which may sustain a slow bull market. The first quarter is projected to be the peak period for the maturity of fixed deposits, with funds likely flowing from insurance and wealth management channels into the equity market, marking the most abundant time for incremental funds throughout the year [3][4][62]. Group 1: Incremental Funds Sources - Incremental funds are primarily sourced from the migration of household deposits and pressures from asset scarcity, with insurance premium income continuing to grow significantly. By Q3 2025, the equity allocation ratio is expected to rise to 15.5%, nearing historical highs, which could release over 840 billion yuan into the market [4][6][66]. - The total amount of fixed deposits maturing in 2026 is estimated to be around 45 trillion yuan, which will likely lead to increased allocations in wealth management and "fixed income+" products, contributing over 900 billion yuan in medium to long-term funds to the A-share market [4][14][17]. - Public funds are expected to see a net inflow of approximately 230 billion yuan in 2026, driven by the recovery of fund net values and the enhanced motivation of individual investors to enter the market [4][33][34]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The market's main contradictions in 2026 will shift towards verifying economic prosperity and performance realization, with medium to long-term funds providing a safety net. Active funds from public and private sectors are anticipated to further strengthen the "technology + resource products" dual mainline market, with accelerated sector rotation [4][62][64]. - The "national team" funds are expected to see a significant reduction in inflows, with a projected net inflow of about 200 billion yuan in 2026, as their role shifts in a bull market environment [19][22][23]. - High-risk funds, represented by margin trading and private equity, are expected to remain active, with margin trading net inflows estimated at around 450 billion yuan and private equity assets projected to grow to 8.5 trillion yuan, contributing approximately 700 billion yuan in incremental funds [4][26][31]. Group 3: Global and Domestic Influences - Overseas funds are anticipated to strategically allocate to Chinese assets, with northbound capital expected to net inflow around 100 billion yuan in 2026, although this impact on the overall market is expected to be limited [4][36][39]. - The macro liquidity environment is favorable, with a global interest rate cut cycle entering its later stages, but the marginal improvement in policies is expected to gradually converge. The micro-funding situation is likely to improve significantly, supporting a strong performance in equities over fixed income [4][45][49].

中信证券研究团队认为，本次会议主要落脚点在于优化结构性工具，考虑到当前的金融市场环境，央行 以结构性工具"降息"和对总量工具的积极表态，兼顾了稳定市场预期和避免推升金融泡沫的目标。 为继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，中国人民银行在2026年开年便先行打出结构性货币政策工具的"组合 拳"。1月15日，央行在国新办新闻发布会上宣布，自1月19日起，下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率 0.25个百分点，完善结构性工具并加大支持力度。 除聚焦一系列结构性工具外，央行对降准降息等总量工具的进一步宽松同样释放积极信号。央行新闻发 言人、副行长邹澜在会上表示，今年降准降息还有一定的空间。下一步，央行将综合考虑基础货币投放 需要、债券市场供求情况、收益率曲线形态变化等因素，灵活开展国债买卖操作，与其他流动性工具一 起，保持流动性充裕，为政府债顺利发行创造适宜的货币金融环境。引导隔夜利率在政策利率水平附近 运行。 发布会上，央行、国家外汇局有关负责人还就财政货币政策加强协同配合、人民币汇率、2025年社融信 贷结构特点等问题作出回应。 八项措施支持"十五五"开好局 为加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，有效支持"十五五"开好局、起好步，发布会 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating of the Report - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Credit demand remains weak, with new loans in December slightly lower year-on-year. Personal loans decreased by 916 million yuan, and corporate loans increased by 1.07 trillion yuan. Personal short-term loans decreased by 1023 million yuan, and personal long-term loans increased by 100 million yuan, indicating weak consumer and mortgage credit demand. Corporate short-term loans increased by 370 billion yuan, corporate long-term loans increased by 330 billion yuan, and bill financing increased by 350 billion yuan, suggesting the use of corporate short-term loans and bill financing to boost credit scale [2]. - The growth rate of M1 continued to decline. The new - caliber M1 growth rate at the end of December was 3.8%, down 1.1 percentage points from the end of last month. The M1 growth rate has been falling since the end of September. The M2 growth rate at the end of December was 8.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the end of last month [2]. - The social financing growth rate continued to decline in December, and it may continue to fall in 2026. The social financing increment in December was 2.21 trillion yuan, significantly lower than the same period last year. The shortfall mainly came from the net financing of government bonds. It is expected that new loans (in the social financing caliber) will slightly decrease year - on - year in 2026, the net financing of government bonds will expand, the increment of social financing will be similar year - on - year, and the social financing growth rate will slightly decline to about 7.4% by the end of 2026 [2]. - Pay attention to the coupon of 3 - 5Y capital bonds and seize the opportunity of long - bond trading. Since the second half of 2025, the bond market has often deviated from the fundamentals and is mainly driven by institutional behavior. It is expected that the wealth management scale will increase by more than 3 trillion yuan in 2026, and wealth management will significantly increase the allocation of credit bonds with a remaining maturity of less than 3 years and 5Y credit bonds. The decline in bank liability costs will support government bonds within 10Y. It is recommended to allocate 3 - 5Y capital bonds for coupons, trade long - bonds, and explore multi - asset opportunities [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Credit Situation - In December, due to weak credit demand, new loans were lower year - on - year. Personal loans decreased, and corporate loans increased. Personal short - term and long - term loans both decreased significantly year - on - year, while corporate short - term loans, long - term loans, and bill financing were used to boost credit scale. Credit demand may be weak in the long term due to factors such as fiscal policy and industry over - capacity [2]. M1 and M2 Situation - The new - caliber M1 growth rate at the end of December was 3.8%, down 1.1 percentage points from the end of last month, and it has been falling since September. The M1 growth rate rose from January to September due to factors such as the stock market recovery and a lower base, but it declined significantly in Q4 as the base returned to normal. The M2 growth rate at the end of December was 8.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the end of last month [2]. Social Financing Situation - The social financing increment in December was 2.21 trillion yuan, lower than 2.85 trillion yuan in December 2024. The shortfall mainly came from government bond net financing. The social financing growth rate at the end of December decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 8.3%. It is expected that the social financing growth rate will slightly decline to about 7.4% by the end of 2026 [2]. Bond Investment Suggestion - Since the second half of 2025, the bond market has been mainly influenced by institutional behavior. The growth of wealth management scale will support credit bonds within 3Y, and the decline in bank liability costs will support government bonds within 10Y. It is recommended to allocate 3 - 5Y capital bonds for coupons, trade long - bonds, and explore multi - asset opportunities. The yield of the active 30Y Treasury bond is expected to slowly return to about 2.2% in the first quarter [2].

Economic News - The Ministry of Finance announced a tax refund policy for taxpayers selling their own homes and purchasing new ones within one year, with full refunds for new purchases equal to or greater than the sale price of the old home [2] - The Ministry of Finance held a video conference to promote a package of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, emphasizing the need for simplified processes and effective implementation [2] - The Anhui Provincial Government issued measures to support entrepreneurship, allowing a maximum investment loss tolerance of 80% for provincial angel funds [2] - The State Administration of Taxation exposed two tax evasion cases involving online anchors, indicating a crackdown on tax violations in this sector [2] - The U.S. State Department suspended visa processing for 75 countries to combat potential public burden applicants [2] - The situation between the U.S. and Iran remains tense, with potential military actions being discussed [2] - Chinese banks have accelerated capital replenishment, with 39 institutions changing their registered capital or plans, primarily through targeted stock issuance [2] - The Japanese government plans to take action against excessive speculation in the foreign exchange market [2] - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 900 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system [2] - China's foreign trade in 2025 reached 45.47 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 6.1% and imports by 0.5% [5] Company Insights - Tianli Lithium Energy's subsidiary will undergo maintenance from January 14 to February 28, 2026, reducing lithium iron phosphate production by 1,500 to 2,000 tons, but not significantly impacting operations [5] - Zhuoyi Information's stock price has deviated significantly from market trends, raising concerns about speculative risks [5] - Huazheng New Materials expects a net profit of 260 million to 310 million yuan for 2025, indicating a turnaround from losses due to market expansion and cost reduction efforts [5] - CITIC Securities reported a revenue of 74.83 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 28.75%, with net profit rising by 38.46% [5] - Hu Silicon Industry anticipates a net loss of 1.53 billion to 1.28 billion yuan for 2025, indicating a worsening financial situation compared to the previous year [5] Industry Analysis - The photovoltaic industry may see a second growth curve with the concept of space photovoltaic technology, which could significantly increase demand for solar energy in space applications [7][8] - The current leading technology for space photovoltaic is gallium arsenide, but its high production costs may lead to the adoption of P-type HJT technology, which is more suitable for space conditions [9] - Perovskite tandem batteries are expected to become a key option for future space photovoltaic applications due to their high efficiency and lightweight characteristics [10] - The short-term growth in low-orbit satellites is expected to drive demand for space photovoltaics, with HJT and perovskite technologies being favored for their adaptability to extreme environments [10]