证券研究报告 | 策略深度报告 | 中国策略 谁战胜了"金本位"？ ——资产、风格、行业与黄金深度复盘 核心观点 黄金作为非生息资产，其自身并不具有内生性的价值增长机制。2018 年以来，能跑赢 黄金的资产却屈指可数，背后或反映出美元信用体系弱化、全球地缘风险常态化、经 济不确定性升温等特征。相较于黄金，2018 年以来获得正收益的资产为个别虚拟货币、 正收益的风格为微盘股指，正收益的行业为贵金属，正收益的策略为小盘规模因子。 ❑ 黄金标价的大类资产 权益：2018 年 3 月以来，美股、印股、欧股跑输黄金幅度相对较小。股指名义增 长较强，但以黄金标价的实际走势偏弱，大多受流动性驱动。排除"货币幻觉" 之后，权益资产能够真实跑赢黄金并非易事。固收：中美国债期货均无优势。商 品：主要商品均跑输，贵金属＞工业金属＞能源品。虚拟资产：个别虚拟货币可 跑赢黄金，源于三大优势：支付便利度强、技术革新溢价、供给更稀缺。不动产： 全球主要经济体房价均跑输，美国、印度跑输黄金幅度相对较小。其中，美国或 受益于较强的经济韧性和需求拉动，印度或受益于人口红利。 ❑ 黄金标价的一级行业 2018 年至今：资源品和新动能相对较强，消 ...

【解剖大盘】 现在的市场就是反反复复，市场抓住一个契机就往上打，但都很难持续，依旧是轮动的格局，因为基本 面并不扎实，包括美股纳指创出历史新高，主要靠的英伟达。其它并不突出，都是情绪带动，港股今天 冲高回落跌0.29%。 继续围绕关税：据央视新闻报道，当地时间周二，美国总统特朗普宣布，对一些规模体量较小的国家的 关税信函也将很快发出，对这些国家预计会设定"略高于10%"的关税。7月15 日，北约秘书长马克·吕特 宣称，如果俄罗斯不与乌克兰达成和平协议，巴西、中国和印度恐面临美国的二级制裁，并敦促巴西、 中国和印度向俄罗斯施压。欧洲也跟在后面掺乎，继续讨好特朗普。外交部回应：关税战没有赢家，胁 迫施压解决不了问题。美国提出韩国参考日本的提议：建立主权基金，借款给韩国企业去美国建厂。 第三届中国国际供应链促进博览会今日在北京举行，英伟达 CEO 黄仁勋出席并发表中文演讲。黄仁勋 称已收到H20很多订单。平心而论，H20即便是阉割版，也比国产的要好用一些，关键是其生态匹配效 率更高。美国此次松口，关键原因就是想通了，再不卖就卖不出去了。当然也不排除想让我们放松稀土 做出的姿态，但大概率不在双方讨论的范畴，很难作为筹 ...

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/07/16 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本 ...

以下文章来源于大胡子财研社 ，作者湾区区长 独到的财经观点，深度的金融分析，助你抓住最新财富机会，实现资产稳步增长！ 最近我们一直在见证资本市场上的价格新高。 大胡子财研社 . 这其中最引人瞩目的就是贵金属市场中的 白银 。 今天现货白银价格在亚洲交易时段持续走高，盘中一度上涨1.3%，延续上周4%的涨幅， 价格触 及2011年以来最高水平 。 年内累计涨幅达到32.9%，已经高于现货黄金同期27.84%的涨幅 。 白银价格进入到13年以来新高，这肯定是一个很不寻常的信号。 市场上有人认为这是黄金暴涨之后的资金轮动导致的。 黄金涨完了就轮到白银，因为这两个贵金属都是很受市场青睐的避险资产。 但我觉得不能够这么简单的去分析。 而应该深入地去了解，背后有没有控盘的人。 我们首先要知道，今年现货白银实际上经历了两轮上涨。 第一轮上涨是从 1 月初 到4月2日 。 这一波上涨，现货白银从28.8涨到最高34.5。 第二波就是 4月7号到现在 。 这一波是市场消化了懂王对等关税导致的暴跌之后的上涨。 价格从最低28.3涨到最新的高点39。 这两波上涨，主导因素完全不一样。 但是你今天站在7月份的时间点，去回看4月初发生 ...

上海黄金交易所黄金T+D 7月16日（周三）晚盘盘初上涨0.19%报773.5元/克； 上海黄金交易所白银T+D 7月16日（周三）晚盘盘初上涨0.16%报9129.0元/千克。 黄金延期 白银延期 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The crude oil market rating for this week is adjusted from relatively strong to neutral oscillation [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and market sentiment [1][2][3] Summaries by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices fell slightly. In Q2, global oil inventories increased by 2.7%. In the first week of Q3, overall inventories decreased by 0.3%. The upward drive of strong real - world factors on oil prices has weakened. The rating is adjusted to neutral oscillation [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: As crude oil prices fall, fuel - related futures follow suit. The spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils widens. The FU crack is expected to continue its downward trend, while LU's unilateral movement follows crude oil [21] - **Asphalt**: The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries increased slightly. Supply increase resilience needs further observation. Demand is weak but has recovery expectations. The price follows crude oil, but the upward drive is limited before demand improves [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Middle - East production pressure persists. Overseas prices are oscillating weakly. Domestic supply and demand are both weak, and the market is oscillating weakly [23] Metals - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices oscillated. The impact of tariffs is emerging. The Fed is likely to maintain its current policy. Suggestions for trading include holding short positions or using option strategies [3] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. There is a negative feedback in the spot market during the off - season. There is short - term callback pressure [4] - **Alumina**: Spot prices are rising, but the market is in an oversupply state. The upside is limited, and the futures are unlikely to fall sharply [5] - **Zinc**: Inventory is rising, indicating a supply - surplus and demand - weak situation. The market continues the idea of shorting on rebounds [7] - **Lead**: The external market's inventory accumulation drags down the price. The domestic market is relatively resistant to decline, but there is a risk of following the external market down [8] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel fell sharply. The stainless - steel market is in the off - season. There is still room for a rebound in Shanghai nickel, waiting for a better short - selling position [9] - **Tin**: Overnight, Shanghai tin opened lower and oscillated. The inventory in London is falling. The domestic output is expected to improve marginally. The market continues the short - allocation direction [10] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price is oscillating and rebounding. The inventory is rising. The upside is limited, and short positions can be gradually arranged [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures prices are rising. The fundamentals are improving marginally, and the market is expected to be oscillating strongly [12] - **Polysilicon**: Futures prices are rebounding. The market is expected to be oscillating strongly, with policy expectations as the main trading logic [13] - **Iron Ore**: The supply is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the demand is relatively stable. The short - term trend follows steel products, and the upward space is limited [15] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The prices are oscillating. The supply of carbon elements is abundant. The prices follow steel products and may continue to rise in the short term [16][17] - **Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon**: The prices are oscillating. They follow the trend of rebar, with limited upward momentum [18][19] Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: Night - session steel prices continued to fall. Demand is weak, and the market is affected by the "anti - involution" concept. Pay attention to terminal demand and policies [14] - **Glass**: The market is affected by the real - estate situation. The short - term follows the macro - sentiment, and long - term price increases require supply contraction [33] Chemicals - **Urea**: Supply is sufficient, and agricultural demand is weakening. Pay attention to export - quota policies [24] - **Methanol**: The main contract fluctuates narrowly. Inventory is rising, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The cost support is weakening. There is a seasonal improvement expectation in Q3, and a negative monthly - spread is expected in Q4 [26] - **Styrene**: The cost - end is oscillating, and the supply is sufficient while demand is weak [27] - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The futures are oscillating weakly. Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC prices are weakening, and caustic - soda prices are oscillating strongly [29] - **PX & PTA**: Prices are oscillating. Pay attention to the repair of PTA's processing margin [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is falling. The short - term is bullish, with the risk of falling oil prices [31] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - chip**: Short - fiber is bullish, while bottle - chip's processing - margin repair is limited [32] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The USDA report is neutral - bearish. The domestic inventory of soybean meal is increasing. The market is oscillating [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil is in an adjustment state. The long - term idea is to go long on dips [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The external market is in a consolidation phase. The domestic market is expected to oscillate weakly [38] - **Soybean No.1**: Pay attention to weather and policies in the short term [39] - **Corn**: The US corn is growing well. The domestic market is oscillating [40] - **Live Pig**: The supply is abundant in the medium term, and the price has downward pressure [41] - **Egg**: The spot price is rebounding seasonally. The futures' upside is limited, and the long - term cycle has not bottomed out [42] - **Cotton**: US cotton prices are rising due to weather concerns. The domestic market is affected by demand. The inventory is expected to be tight [43] - **Sugar**: The external market is under pressure, and the domestic market is expected to oscillate [44] - **Apple**: The new - season apple price is increasing. The market is bearish on the production estimate [45] - **Timber**: The supply has some positive factors, but the demand is in the off - season, and the price is weak [46] - **Pulp**: The price is rising slightly. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is in the off - season. Temporarily observe or trade short - term [47] Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market shows a divergence. The short - term risk preference is oscillating slightly strongly. Increase the allocation of technology - growth stocks [48] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Prices are rising. The bond market should pay attention to the risk of increased volatility [49] Shipping - **Container Freight Index (Europe Line)**: Spot prices are stable. The 08 contract will converge with the spot, while the 10 - contract's rise is due to multiple factors. It is not recommended to chase the rise [20]

近期贵金属市场迎来剧烈震荡，黄金网特约分析专家董镇元分析道，"昨日黄金市场早盘小幅高开在3344.1的位置后行情先回补缺口给出3341.1的 位置后行情强势拉升，日线最高触及到了3366.4的位置后行情冲高回落，美盘时段受到基本面美国CPI影响黄金强势回落，日线最低给到了3320的 位置后行情整理，日线最终收线在了3324.8的位置后日线以一根上影线很长的大阴线收线，而这样的形态收尾后，今日的行情延续空，点位上， 昨日3363的空减仓后止损跟进在3355持有，今日3340空保守3342空止损3346.下方目标看3328和3320，跌破看3313和3308-3302。" 据智通财经 7 月 15 日报道，美国 6 月 CPI 同比上涨 2.7%，创 2 月以来新高，核心 CPI 同比涨幅达 2.9%。受此影响，7 月 16 日国内黄金 9995 价 格下跌 0.42% 至 774.92 元 / 克，国际黄金期货微涨 0.01% 至 3337.1 美元 / 盎司，伦敦银现同步下跌 0.05%。这种 "通胀回升 + 金银承压" 的市场 格局，正考验着投资者的风险应对能力。 这种复杂的市场环境下，传统投资策略面临严峻 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's economic semi - annual "report card" shows that the H1 GDP reached 66.05 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.3%. The fixed - asset investment grew by 2.8%, while real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. In June, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% [1]. - For A - shares, from a long - term perspective, the investment value is relatively high. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to more science and innovation policy support, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [2][11]. - The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports the price of treasury bond futures. However, the "anti - involution" policy drives up the prices of some commodities, and the price volatility of treasury bond futures may increase in the short term [3][12]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of short - term price rebound but may still fluctuate due to hedging pressure and no signs of production cuts at the mine end [4][5][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. International News - On July 15, data from the US Department of Labor showed that the US unadjusted CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February. The seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month [6]. b. Domestic News - The Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing from July 14 - 15, emphasizing achievements in urban development since the 18th National Congress of the CPC [7]. c. Industry News - On July 15, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in June, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 422.87 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. From January to June, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 24.5458 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0% [8]. d. Key Varieties Analysis - **Equity Index**: The US three major indexes mainly declined. The previous trading day's equity index fluctuated and declined. The communication sector led the rise, and the coal sector led the fall. The market turnover was 1.64 trillion yuan. The proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market is expected to gradually increase [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally rose, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond fell to 1.6575%. The central bank's net investment in the open - market operation was 173.5 billion yuan [3][12]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The weekly production of carbonate lithium decreased by 644 tons to 18,123 tons. The demand is expected to increase, while the inventory increased by 1,510 tons to 138,347 tons [4][20]. e. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Equity Index**: The investment value of A - shares is high in the long - term. The banking sector with high interest and low volatility has performed well since 2025 [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The external environment is more complex, and the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, but the price volatility of treasury bond futures may increase in the short term [3][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins declined. The consumption is in a relative off - season, and the cost support has weakened [13]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined. The supply is shrinking, and the market expects better results. Soda ash futures also declined, and the inventory is under pressure [14]. - **Rubber**: The supply of new rubber in domestic production areas is affected by rainfall, but the overall supply pressure is increasing, and the upward space is limited [16]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: After the release of inflation data, gold and silver weakened. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has cooled, but the long - term driving force for gold still exists [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price may fluctuate within a range due to the low processing fee of concentrates and stable downstream demand [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price may fluctuate widely. The supply of concentrates is expected to improve, and downstream demand is mixed [19]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The short - term macro - expectation is strong, and the iron ore price is expected to be strong with fluctuations [22]. - **Steel**: The supply and demand contradiction in the steel market is not significant, and the steel price is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply pressure still exists, and the market focuses on the "anti - involution" policy expectation [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The July USDA report is neutral to bearish, but the demand for US soybeans in biodiesel may support the price, and the domestic market is expected to fluctuate [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: The MPOB report is neutral to bearish, but the strong demand in India may support the palm oil price, and the overall market is expected to fluctuate [26][27]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index rose strongly. The market is still speculating on the freight rate space in August, and the focus is on the 10 - contract [28].

早盘冲高回落，多空博弈白热化 7 月 16 日亚市早盘，伦敦金现一度触及 3331.56 美元 / 盎司的日内高点，但随后受美国 6 月零售销售数据超预期影响，美元指数快速反弹，金价 承压回落至 3320 美元附近震荡。国内市场同步波动，沪金主连微跌 0.42% 至 774.98 元 / 克，而黄金 T+D 则因人民币汇率波动收跌 0.48% 至 770.69 元 / 克，国内外价差扩大至约 50 元 / 克。这种 "冰火两重天" 的走势，折射出市场对美联储政策预期与地缘风险的分歧。 三大核心矛盾主导行情 作为香港黄金交易所 AA 类 047 号会员，金盛贵金属构建的 "数据 - 执行 - 风控" 三位一体体系，恰好适配当前震荡行情。其直连路透社、彭博社 的全球行情系统，可实现纽约、伦敦、香港三地报价同步误差小于 0.3 秒，让投资者在非农数据公布等关键节点仍能捕捉 0.5 美元以上的价差机 会。例如，当伦敦金价格触及预设的 3330 美元压力位时，平台的智能交易引擎会自动触发平仓指令，2025 年 5 月金价急跌期间，该功能使客户 平均止损效率提升近 60%。此外，伦敦金点差低至 0.15 美元 / 盎司， ...

2025-07-16 10:25:32 作者：狼叫兽 对普通人如你我，"炒黄金"这三个字，咋听起来，神秘又遥远。事实呢？并不是！它其实没那么复杂！ 掌握正确的方法、选择合适的平台，并在实践中逐步积累经验，无任何基础的新人，也能从容上手。在 众多贵金属投资平台中，皇御贵金属凭借专业、稳健、服务贴心的特点，特别适合初学者入门，帮助新 手走好炒黄金的三步关键之路。 第二步：模拟交易，积累操作经验 对新手而言，知道如何操作远比单纯的理论更重要。皇御贵金属为所有注册用户提供免费模拟账户，这 是真正站在新手角度出发的服务。仅需几分钟时间，在皇御APP或官网，下载正版MT4，即可开始交 易。其模拟账户与真实账户在操作界面和市场数据上完全一致，投资者可在完全无风险的环境中进行真 实市场操作，练习下单、止盈止损设置、仓位控制等核心技能。 在模拟交易过程中，新手会逐步熟悉交易软件的界面布局、挂单方式、止盈止损等操作要点。皇御贵金 属的交易平台支持多设备登录，无论是电脑还是手机，都可实现流畅操作，确保用户可以在任何时间、 任何地点练习和操作。尤其官方APP，随时随地掌上查行情。超级便利性，对刚刚接触交易系统的新用 户来说尤为可贵， ...