金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 9 月 3 日 英大证券研究所证券研究报告 短暂的技术性回踩后，短期或维持高位窄幅的震荡，操作上适当防御 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周二沪深三大指数集体调整，黄金、银行股等防御性板块走强，机器人执行 器及工业母机概念股活跃，不过，CPO、半导体及通信等多数科技股出现回调。 从近期来看，市场上冲的动能有所减弱，在于市场情绪和资金出现一定的分 歧，股指上行面临短期的阻力，高位股的回落在一定程度上影响到短期的市场情 绪，上行的压力有所增加，但从整个市场的表现来看，市场短期的赚钱效应依然 存在，市场情绪仍维持较高的热度，只不过，短期板块和个股的分化有所加剧， 这将在短时间内影响整个市场的节奏。从短时间周期来看，市场或维持高位进行 窄幅的震荡休整，而从长周期来看，周线、月线级别 K 线走势仍保持着多头排列， 股指在技术形态上仍保持着上行趋势，因此，投资者不必畏惧于短期的市场调整， 短暂的技术性回踩，有助于市场中期继续向上突破。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, indicates a potential new upward trend for precious metals, with Morgan Stanley projecting a year-end target of $3,800 per ounce for gold [1][7]. Group 1: Gold and Silver Price Movements - On September 2, London spot gold prices surpassed $3,500 per ounce, reaching a peak of $3,508.49, marking a new historical high after a four-month consolidation period [2]. - COMEX gold and silver futures also hit record highs during the same trading session, with COMEX gold peaking at $3,578.4 per ounce and COMEX silver reaching $41.99 per ounce, the highest levels since 2012 [2]. - Domestic gold and silver futures in China also saw significant increases, with the main gold contract closing at 804.32 yuan per gram, up 1.21%, and the main silver contract at 9,824 yuan per kilogram, up 2.33% [2]. Group 2: Market Drivers and Predictions - Multiple institutions highlight that the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are the primary catalyst for the current gold price surge, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [3]. - The market is reacting to macroeconomic policies and political risks, with concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve due to President Trump's influence, further enhancing the appeal of precious metals as safe-haven assets [4]. - Analysts predict that the breakout above $3,500 per ounce for gold could initiate a new upward trend, with silver prices expected to follow suit due to its industrial applications [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Future Outlook - Notable investment firms are focusing on upstream resource sectors, including gold, copper, and aluminum, anticipating a weaker dollar and limited supply growth, which could enhance the profitability of quality companies [5]. - Key upcoming economic indicators, such as U.S. employment data and CPI, are expected to influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and, consequently, gold prices [7]. - UBS forecasts that gold prices will continue to reach new highs in the coming quarters, supported by a low-interest-rate environment and rising geopolitical risks [7].

行情回顾： 国际黄金周二（9月2日）大幅收涨，开盘价3474.08美元/盎司，最高价3520.38美元/盎司，最低价3470.15美元/ 盎司，收盘价3520.38美元/盎司。 消息面： 美国8月ISM制造业PMI录得48.7，低于市场预期49，前值为48；美国7月营建支出月率录得-0.1%，符合市场预 期，前值为-0.4%；美国8月标普全球制造业PMI终值录得53，低于市场预期53.3，前值为53.3。 供应管理协会（ISM）制造业商业调查委员会主席苏珊·斯宾塞表示，8月份，美国制造业活动收缩速度略有放 缓，新订单增长是制造业PMI上升0.7个百分点的最大因素。然而，由于生产收缩的速度几乎等于新订单的扩张 速度，制造业PMI的增长是名义上的。四个需求指标中有两个有所改善，新订单和新出口订单指数显示出增 长，而客户库存和未完成订单指数的收缩速度略快。 世界黄金协会市场情报经理Krishan Gopaul指出，市场持续不确定性、对美联储独立性的担忧、九月降息预期 重燃、美国滞胀风险再现以及美元普遍走弱，共同强化了黄金的吸引力。地缘政治紧张局势与关税忧虑进一步 巩固了这一趋势。Gopaul表示，黄金ETF、金条与 ...

东吴证券认为，1）9月美联储议息会议及美国非农就业人口、核心PCE通胀数据将成为黄金走势的主 导。若通胀数据温和，将强化降息预期，实际利率下行利好金价；若数据超预期偏强，美元利率维持高 位，则抑制金价上行。2）预计9月黄金仍将在通胀、政策与地缘因素的博弈中震荡运行。若流动性宽松 预期占优，金价有望保持偏强格局；若利率与通胀形成压制，则波动或加剧。中期来看，央行购金与避 险需求仍提供支撑，整体上行趋势未改。 东方证券认为，金价新催化剂已来袭，资金或重新回流，看好黄金板块的投资空间。4月以来黄金在高 位震荡，政治政策风险使得资金流向白银、钯、铜等金属，但美联储释放的降息信号或将成为金价的新 催化剂，使得资金重新回流黄金，持续看好金价的上涨空间。 9月2日，在美联储降息预期推动下，伦敦现货黄金突破3500美元/盎司关口，再创新高。 ...

贵金属、黄金、超导、旅游板块涨幅居前。 （持续更新中……） 09:26 A股开盘｜上证指数涨0.19% 黄金板块走强 三大股指集体高开，上证指数开盘报3865.29点，涨0.19%；深成指开盘报12599.96点，涨0.37%；创业 板指开盘报2882.84点，涨0.37%。贵金属、黄金、超导、旅游板块涨幅居前，供销社、玉米板块小幅走 低。 | | | A股重要指数 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 涨幅 | | 上证指数 | 3865.15 | +7.02 | +0.18% | | 深证成指 | 12599.32 | +45.48 | +0.36% | | 北证50 | 1572.24 | -2.64 | -0.17% | | 创业板指 | 2886.66 | +14.44 | +0.50% | | 板块名称 | 涨幅� | 板块名称 | 涨幅4 | | 贵金属 | 3.07% | 太赫兹 | 0.83% | | 白酒 | 1.52% | 通信服务 | 0.70% | | 芬太尼 | 1.45% | PEEK材料 | 0.67% | | 黄金概念 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - On September 2, a total of 33 target price adjustments were made by brokerages for listed companies, with notable increases in target prices for Zhongcai International, Zhucheng Technology, and Guangyun Technology, reflecting significant potential upside in their respective sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Target Price Increases - Zhongcai International received a target price increase of 43.65%, with a new target price of 13.00 yuan [2]. - Zhucheng Technology's target price was raised by 41.51%, now set at 75.00 yuan [2]. - Guangyun Technology saw a target price increase of 35.72%, with a new target price of 22.00 yuan [2]. Group 2: Brokerage Recommendations - A total of 35 listed companies received brokerage recommendations on September 2, with notable mentions including Datang Power and China General Nuclear Power, each receiving one recommendation [3]. - Guangyun Technology's rating was upgraded from "Hold" to "Increase" by CITIC Securities [5]. Group 3: Rating Adjustments - One company, Yihua Tong, had its rating downgraded from "Buy" to "Hold" by Changjiang Securities [6]. - The only company receiving a new coverage rating was Chifeng Gold, which was rated "Buy" by CITIC Securities [7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For non - ferrous metals, construct seller neutral volatility strategies for the ones with weak and volatile trends, and short - volatility combination strategies for those with large - amplitude fluctuations. For precious metals with upward breakthroughs, construct spot hedging strategies [2]. 3. Summary by Categories 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various metal futures have different price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, copper (CU2510) has a latest price of 80,410, a rise of 630, and a trading volume of 6.17 million hands. The trading volume of most metals shows a decreasing trend, while the trading volume of some like lithium carbonate (LC2511) increases [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - **Volume - to - Open - Interest PCR**: Different metals have different PCR values and their changes, which can be used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the market. For example, the volume PCR of copper is 0.29 with a change of - 0.06 [4]. - **Pressure and Support Levels**: From the perspective of the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of different metals are obtained. For example, the pressure level of copper is 82,000 and the support level is 80,000 [5]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of different metals shows different levels and changes. For example, the implied volatility of copper is 11.46% at the at - the - money level, and the weighted implied volatility is 15.99% with a change of - 0.25% [6]. 3.3 Strategy and Recommendations - **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: Construct a short - volatility seller option combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy [7]. - **Aluminum/Alumina**: Construct a bull spread combination strategy for call options, a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy, and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Zinc/Lead**: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Nickel**: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a spot covered - call strategy [10]. - **Tin**: Construct a short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a spot long + buy put + sell call strategy [11]. - **Precious Metals (Gold/Silver)** - **Gold**: Construct a bull spread combination strategy for call options, a short - neutral short - volatility option seller combination strategy, and a spot hedging strategy [12]. - **Black Metals** - **Rebar**: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a spot long + sell call strategy [13]. - **Iron Ore**: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a spot long collar strategy [13]. - **Ferroalloys**: Construct a short - volatility strategy for manganese - silicon [14]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: Construct a short - volatility short - call + put option combination strategy and a spot long + buy put + sell call strategy [14]. - **Glass**: Construct a short - volatility short - call + put option combination strategy and a spot long collar strategy [15].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - On September 2, a total of 33 target price adjustments were made by brokerages for listed companies, with notable increases in target prices for Zhongcai International, Zhucheng Technology, and Guangyun Technology, reflecting significant potential upside in their respective sectors [1]. Group 1: Target Price Increases - Zhongcai International (600970) received a target price increase of 43.65%, with a new target price of 13.00 yuan [2]. - Zhucheng Technology (301280) saw a target price increase of 41.51%, with a new target price of 75.00 yuan [2]. - Guangyun Technology (155311) had a target price increase of 35.72%, with a new target price of 22.00 yuan [2]. - Other companies with notable target price increases include Xingrong Environment (34.62%), Shennan Circuit (30.64%), and Zhongding Co., Ltd. (29.29%) [2]. Group 2: Brokerage Recommendations - A total of 35 listed companies received brokerage recommendations on September 2, with notable mentions including Datang Power and China General Nuclear Power, each receiving one recommendation [3]. - Guangyun Technology was upgraded from "Hold" to "Increase" by CITIC Securities, marking a positive shift in sentiment [5]. - Yihua Tong (688339) was downgraded from "Buy" to "Increase" by Changjiang Securities, indicating a cautious outlook [6]. Group 3: First Coverage - On September 2, CITIC Securities initiated coverage on Chifeng Gold (600988), assigning a "Buy" rating, indicating confidence in the company's prospects in the precious metals sector [7].

Group 1 - International spot gold prices reached a historic high of $3,508.69 per ounce on September 2, 2023, driven by a weaker dollar and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [1] - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by approximately 33% [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also risen significantly, with notable increases in prices per gram from various retailers: Chow Sang Sang at 1,041 CNY, Lao Miao at 1,034 CNY, and Chow Tai Fook at 1,037 CNY [1] Group 2 - UBS strategist Joni Teves stated that gold is expected to continue reaching new historical highs in the coming quarters due to declining interest rates, weak economic data, and increasing macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical risks [2]

东方财富证券认为，当前申万二级板块的PB（市净率）估值分化度已处于历史以来相对高位水平，赔 率视角下存在市场风格向低位价值切换的可能性。但考虑到科技成长赛道中，算力产业链具备明显盈利 支撑且盈利预期不断上修，后续整体价值风格胜率的提升需要配合政策信号的进一步催化，以及盈利相 对强弱趋势的持续改变。 国金证券牟一凌策略团队近期发布题为《大切换，一触即发》的A股策略报告。该团队表示，短期看， 市场已经转向景气投资逻辑，只是短期内大部分资金抱团聚焦产业趋势更为明确的AI相关产业链。后 续，如果低位资产出现盈利改善更明确的信号，那么广泛的风格切换将会发生。 国金证券认为，随着"反内卷"政策的持续推进，国内制造业企业经营状况的改善正在持续得到验证。与 此同时，海外降息条件也进一步成熟，有利于全球制造业活动修复。结构上看，海外传统制造业设备投 资活动相对较强，中国物价水平的回升一触即发。在潜在的风格切换下，推荐关注三条投资主线：一是 同时受益于国内"反内卷"与海外制造业活动修复的实物资产，包括工业金属（铜、铝、钢铁）及资本品 （工程机械、专用机械、机械零部件、重卡）；二是保险的长期资产端将受益于资本回报见底回升，券 商也 ...