Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Dividend Impact Prediction Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to predict the impact of dividends on stock index futures pricing by estimating the dividend points for different contracts and calculating their influence on futures prices[7][10][19] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Estimate Component Stocks' Net Profit**: Use available financial data in the following priority: annual reports > quick reports > earnings warnings > trailing twelve-month (TTM) net profit from Q3 reports > analysts' earnings forecasts[21][22] 2. **Calculate Pre-Tax Dividend Total**: Based on the estimated net profit, calculate the total dividend amount using historical dividend payout ratios or directly use announced dividend plans[23][26] 3. **Assess Dividend Impact on Index**: - Dividend Yield = Post-Tax Dividend Total / Latest Market Value - Dividend Points Impact = Stock Weight × Dividend Yield - Adjust stock weights using the formula: $$\mathrm{w_{it}={\frac{w_{i0}\times\mathrm{\scriptsize{\boldmath~(~1+R~)}~}}{\sum_{1}^{n}w_{i0}\times\mathrm{\scriptsize{\boldmath~(~1+R~)}~}}}}$$ where \( w_{i0} \) is the initial weight, and \( R \) is the stock's return over the period[24] 4. **Predict Contract-Specific Impact**: Aggregate dividend impacts for all component stocks within the contract's maturity period, considering historical ex-dividend dates and adjustments for shareholder meeting schedules[25][27][28] 5. **Theoretical Pricing Formula**: - For discrete dividends: $$\mathbf{D}=\sum_{\mathrm{i=1}}^{\mathrm{m}}\mathbf{D}_{\mathrm{i}}\,/(1+\phi)$$ $$F_t = (S_t - D)(1 + r)$$ - For continuous dividends: $$F_t = S_t e^{(r-d)(T-t)}$$ where \( F_t \) is the futures price, \( S_t \) is the spot price, \( D \) is the dividend value, \( r \) is the risk-free rate, and \( d \) is the annualized dividend yield[30][31] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic and logical framework for estimating dividend impacts, leveraging historical data and reasonable assumptions to enhance prediction accuracy[19][22][26] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Dividend Impact Prediction Model - **Dividend Points for June Contracts**: - SSE 50: 18.48 - CSI 300: 23.58 - CSI 500: 44.47 - CSI 1000: 36.22[10][13] - **Annualized Hedging Costs (Excluding Dividends)**: - SSE 50: 1.14% - CSI 300: 5.23% - CSI 500: 12.69% - CSI 1000: 16.86%[7][10][13] - **Remaining Impact on June Contracts**: - SSE 50: 0.68% - CSI 300: 0.61% - CSI 500: 0.78% - CSI 1000: 0.60%[13]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The short - term outlook for treasury bonds is positive [4] Group 2: Core Views - For stock indices, China's April social financing increment was 1.16 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 280 billion yuan, the M2 - M1 gap widened, and RMB deposits increased by 12.55 trillion yuan in the first four months. The establishment of the "National Venture Capital Guidance Fund" was announced. The North - bound 50 and Flush micro - cap stocks reached new highs, while bank ETFs also neared historical highs, indicating more volatile subsequent stock index movements. Currently, the market index is close to the March high, but the fundamentals, sentiment, hot topics, and trading volume are not as good as in March. It is advisable to adopt a defensive stance and wait for a clear direction [1] - For treasury bonds, in the short term, the market is in a state of multi - empty equilibrium. The trading around short - term tariff issues is almost over. The core issues driving the market are whether funds can remain stable and whether there will be a rebound in production and exports. There is no clear tendency in the game between reality and expectations, and the market trend is rather confusing. It is difficult for the yield to break through the oscillation range since April before the continuous loosening of funds is disproven and the expectation of fundamental improvement is confirmed [3] Group 3: Strategy Recommendations - For stock indices, adopt a defensive stance and wait and see [2] - For treasury bonds, be bullish in the short term [4] Group 4: Market Review - For stock indices, the futures of the CSI 300 index main contract rose 1.45%, the SSE 50 index main contract futures rose 1.85%, the CSI 500 index main contract futures rose 0.77%, and the CSI 1000 index main contract futures rose 0.77% [6] - For treasury bonds, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.12%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.13%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.23%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.05% [9] Group 5: Technical Analysis - For stock indices, the KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows possible oscillatory movement with adjustment risks [7] - For treasury bonds, the KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows oscillatory movement with a possible rebound [10] Group 6: Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3907.40 | 1.45 | 81957 | 164602 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2737.60 | 1.85 | 48329 | 61472 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5697.80 | 0.77 | 72621 | 117024 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6043.00 | 0.77 | 189515 | 196475 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.53 | - 0.12 | 68753 | 126019 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.81 | - 0.13 | 55124 | 104037 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 118.93 | - 0.23 | 78310 | 59236 | | 2025 - 05 - 14 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.29 | - 0.05 | 35705 | 59021 | [12]

05 月 13 日，上证综指涨跌幅 0.17%，收于 3374.87 点，成交额 5066.09 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅-0.13%，收于 10288.08 点，成交额 7849.16 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅-0.27%，成交额 2634.63 亿元，其中开盘价 6219.45，收盘价 6151.01，当日最高价 6220.44，最低价 6141.68； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅-0.21%，成交额 1942.52 亿元，其中开盘价 5838.03，收盘价 5781.67，当日最高价 5838.03，最低价 5772.07； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅 0.15%，成交额 2675.86 亿元，其中开盘价 3915.59，收盘价 3896.26，当日最高价 3915.59，最低价 3890.69； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅 0.2%，成交额 693.58 亿元，其中开盘价 2713.11，收盘价 2708.06，当日最高价 2713.11，最低价 2702.06。 图表 1：中证 1000、中证 500、沪深 300、上证 50 日内走势（%） 图表 2：四大指数个股涨跌幅比例（%）统计 -0.6 -0 ...

美国通胀降温，4 月 CPI 同比 2.3%，为自 2021 年 2 月以来最低水平。沙特 承诺向美国投资 6000 亿美元，覆盖军火、科技、波音飞机、基建和数据中心。 美国或允许阿联酋进口超百万英伟达先进芯片，支持 OpenAI 在联酋建数据 中心。贝森特：欧盟可能在贸易方面存在"集体行动问题"。整体来看，中 美谈判进程超预期，而市场表现冷静，在关税前的位置附近，没有明显上探， 股指或震荡运行。 ◆ 策略建议： 震荡运行 金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 研究员： 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 对于仓位较低或者久期较低的机构，左侧交易的动力或者空间可能较为充足， 短期内可能体现为一波 5BP 的波段交易。但如果本身着眼于更长趋势交易的 投资者，当前的位置并未充分反应宏观形势的阶段性好转带来的预期变化， 参与的赔率仍然偏低。后续还有政府债密集供给、税期和经济数据等因素的 轮番扰动，市场波折尚未完全结束，关注短期内市场机构充分调仓后进一步 的方向选择。 ◆ 策略建议： 短期看好 研究咨询部 2025-05-14 公司资质 彭博 从业 ...

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Market Overview - The four major index futures contracts all increased last week, with the CSI 300 index futures rising the most by 2.27%, while the CSI 500 index futures saw the largest decline of 1.68% [3][11] - The average trading volume of the four major index futures contracts increased compared to the previous week, with the IF contract seeing the largest increase of 35.46% [3][11] - The annualized basis rates for the current contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH were -7.15%, -12.46%, -14.21%, and -5.19% respectively, indicating a narrowing of the basis for IF and IH while deepening for IC and IM [3][11] Group 2: Cross-Period Price Differences - As of last Friday, the cross-period price difference rates for the current contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH were at the 94.10%, 98.80%, 99.20%, and 88.20% percentiles since 2019 [4][12] - There are arbitrage opportunities for the IF current contract, with a required basis rate of 0.33% for a positive arbitrage and -0.48% for a negative arbitrage over the next 5 trading days [4][12] - The estimated dividend points for the CSI 300, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices are 22.15, 44.10, 16.55, and 36.81 respectively [4][12] Group 3: Market Expectations - The basis changes are influenced by dividends and investor trading sentiment, with expectations of significant fluctuations in basis due to large-scale buying and selling by major funds [4][13] - Recent financial policies, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, are expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market [4][13] - Current basis levels are at historical lows, and the positive cross-period price difference indicates a high cost-performance ratio for using near-month contracts for hedging [4][13] Group 4: Recent Sell-Side Strategy Insights - Eight brokerages believe that ongoing policies will support the capital market, boosting market confidence and reducing risk premiums [5][49] - Five brokerages expect that the technology growth trend is likely to continue in the short term, with small-cap growth stocks performing prominently [5][49] - There is a consensus among brokerages regarding the positive outlook for sectors such as technology, new consumption, military industry, and banking [5][49]

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-05-08 一、指数走势 05 月 07 日，上证综指涨跌幅 0.8%，收于 3342.67 点，成交额 5952.3 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅 0.22%，收于 10104.13 点，成交额 8730.87 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅 0.14%，成交额 2965.22 亿元，其中开盘价 6171.61，收盘价 6111.49，当日最高价 6195.14，最低价 6063.64； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅 0.17%，成交额 2275.66 亿元，其中开盘价 5805.66，收盘价 5750.29，当日最高价 5819.24，最低价 5713.27； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅 0.61%，成交额 2860.11 亿元，其中开盘价 3861.58，收盘价 3831.63，当日最高价 3863.68，最低价 3814.99； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅 0.87%，成交额 806.55 亿元，其中开盘价 2685.56，收盘价 2670.7，当日最高价 2685.56，最低价 2656.2。 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 二、板块涨跌对指数影响 ...

金 融 期 货 研 究 | 期指：利多继续落地，关注早间发布会 | | --- | | | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 期指数据 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 3808.54 | ↑1.01 | | 2679.4 | | | | | | IF2505 | 3797.6 | ↑1.10 | -10.94 | 325.3 | 28609 | ↑8550 | 46669 | ↓1740 | | IF2506 | 3766.2 | ↑1.13 | -42.34 | 539.2 | 47831 | ↑5445 | 138953 | ↑2596 | | IF2509 | 3708.6 | ↑1.06 | -99.94 | 104.5 | 9414 | ↑2535 | 56336 | ↑1103 | | IF2512 | 3681.8 | ↑1.10 | -126.74 | 23.8 | 2158 | ↓215 | ...

说起深圳水贝，那可是全国闻名的"黄金码头"。这里藏龙卧虎，随便拎一个老板出来，身家都能让人眼 红。可最近，水贝圈子里炸开了一个惊雷——一位平时看着挺风光的大老板，炒黄金亏掉了整整一个 亿！ 可人啊，赚得越多，心可能就越大。王老板开始不满足于珠宝生意的利润，他听说炒黄金来钱快，而且 自己就在这个行业，总觉得对"金"有特殊的敏感度。于是，他一脚踏进了高风险的黄金期货市场。 刚开始，行情好，他也赚了些。这下更不得了，觉得自己是股神附体，胆子越来越肥，下的注也越来越 大。殊不知，金融市场可不是实体店，它翻脸比翻书还快。 前段时间，黄金市场经历了一轮剧烈波动。具体细节外人不得而知，但结果是残酷的：王老板一个没扛 住，或者说步子迈得太大，一个晚上，上亿的资金就灰飞烟灭了。 消息传出来，整个水贝都震动了。平时看他开豪车、戴名表，以为是人生赢家，没想到在看不见的"战 场"上栽了这么大的跟头。有人唏嘘，有人感叹，更多的是把这件事当成活生生的反面教材。 实体经济有它的周期和风险，但看得见摸得着；金融投机呢，数据在跳动，财富可能一夜暴增，也可能 瞬间清零。王老板的这一个亿，不仅亏掉了他的真金白银，更给水贝，乃至所有手握实体财富却渴 ...

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策面利好预期与外部不确定性 风险并存 | 备注： ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 4 月 28 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：上周五今日各股指均冲高回落，全天震荡整理。股市成交金额为 11370 亿元，较上日缩量 19 亿元。近期股市的成交量能保持相对稳定，一方 ...

Group 1: Index Trends - On April 14th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.76% to close at 3262.81 points with a trading volume of 543.811 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.51% to close at 9884.3 points with a trading volume of 733.662 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.3% with a trading volume of 272.673 billion yuan, opening at 5933.99, closing at 5938.53, with a high of 5979.9 and a low of 5914.25 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.82% with a trading volume of 207.47 billion yuan, opening at 5633.78, closing at 5627.14, with a high of 5661.8 and a low of 5608.73 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.33% with a trading volume of 85.931 billion yuan, opening at 2623.57, closing at 2628.21, with a high of 2636.79 and a low of 2615.39 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose 0.23% with a trading volume of 292.571 billion yuan, opening at 3772.04, closing at 3759.14, with a high of 3776.63 and a low of 3754.03 [1]. Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 76.34 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Pharmaceutical Biology and Electronics having a significant upward pull on the index [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 45.82 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Non - Ferrous Metals having a significant upward pull on the index [2]. - The SSE 300 rose 8.62 points from the previous close, with sectors like Banks, Non - Ferrous Metals, and Automobiles having an upward pull, while Machinery, Household Appliances, and Food and Beverage had a downward pull [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 8.63 points from the previous close, with sectors like Banks, Non - Ferrous Metals, and Automobiles having an upward pull, while Food and Beverage had a downward pull [2]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 37.39, IM01 of - 121.7, IM02 of - 221.63, and IM03 of - 387.77 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 29.41, IC01 of - 90.75, IC02 of - 171.57, and IC03 of - 298.5 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 13.94, IF01 of - 30.31, IF02 of - 61.11, and IF03 of - 111.78 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 4.89, IH01 of - 7.89, IH02 of - 18.34, and IH03 of - 49.87 [13]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - The report provides data on the roll - over point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts at different time intervals from 09:45 to 15:00 [24][26][28]