商务部消费促进司负责人在解读通知时指出，2026年继续实施汽车、家电、手机等数码产品等传统 领域补贴政策，在保持政策总体延续稳定基础上，适当优化补贴品类和标准。同时，将补贴范围扩大至 智能终端等新兴领域，培育壮大消费新动能，带动新技术、新装备、新产业发展。 该负责人指出，2026年消费品以旧换新工作加强全国统筹，汽车置换更新等领域补贴政策由地方自 主制定调整为全国统一。同时，给予地方更多自主空间，允许各地在消费品以旧换新政策框架内，以智 能产品为重点支持方向，因地制宜合理自主制定实施补贴政策，充分调动地方积极性、扩大消费品以旧 换新政策效果。 本报北京12月31日电 记者董蓓31日从商务部获悉，近日，商务部、国家发展改革委、工业和信息化部 等7部门联合印发《关于提质增效实施2026年消费品以旧换新政策的通知》，进一步细化完善2026年消 费品以旧换新具体举措，提升政策实施质效。 通知强调，2026年，中央继续安排超长期特别国债资金，各地按比例安排配套资金，支持消费品以 旧换新政策实施。全国统一明确汽车报废更新、汽车置换更新、6类家电以旧换新、4类数码和智能产品 购新等四个领域的补贴标准、组织实施方式等工作要求 ...

Group 1: Economic Paths - The global economic landscape in the 21st century shows a clear contrast between the industrial development paths of the US and China, with the US experiencing significant deindustrialization and a shift towards a virtual economy, while China focuses on strengthening its manufacturing sector [2][3] - China's manufacturing industry has grown from 26.6 trillion yuan in 2020 to a projected 33.6 trillion yuan by 2024, contributing over 30% to global manufacturing growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2] Group 2: Challenges in the US - The US faces severe challenges due to the weakening of its manufacturing base, exemplified by Boeing's reliance on global supply chains and diminished domestic manufacturing capabilities [3] - The consequences of deindustrialization include insufficient domestic manufacturing investment, increasing trade deficits, and heightened social inequality [3] Group 3: China's Strategic Focus - China emphasizes the importance of the real economy, particularly manufacturing, as a foundation for national development, as stated in the 2022 Party Congress report [5] - The manufacturing sector is crucial for innovation, job creation, and meeting consumer demand, with logistics from manufacturing accounting for nearly 90% of total social logistics [5] Group 4: Capital Flows and Policy Responses - A study from 1998 to 2020 indicates a trend of productive capital escaping to the virtual economy in China, prompting policy efforts to redirect capital back to the real economy [7] - The Chinese government has implemented various policies to stimulate effective investment, including promoting equipment upgrades and facilitating trade-in programs for vehicles and appliances [7] Group 5: Digital Transformation - China is advancing its manufacturing sector through digitalization and smart technologies, with over 35,000 basic-level and 7,000 advanced-level smart factories established [8] - The integration of digital and traditional manufacturing is evident, with significant growth in high-tech manufacturing and new energy vehicles [9] Group 6: US Manufacturing Rebound Efforts - The US has attempted to promote manufacturing return through various policies since the 2008 financial crisis, but faces challenges such as aging infrastructure and high labor costs [10] - Approximately 20.6% of US factories are limited in capacity due to labor shortages, with predictions that half of manufacturing jobs may face vacancies by 2033 [10] Group 7: Future Outlook - The differing industrial strategies of the US and China will continue to shape their economic futures, with China needing to maintain a reasonable proportion of manufacturing to avoid premature deindustrialization [12][13] - China's manufacturing sector has shown resilience and potential for upgrading, with a 5.7% increase in manufacturing value added in August 2025, outpacing overall industrial growth [13][14]

2004年，董明珠像发狂的母狮子大吼："你们9亿就要把格力卖给老美，休想！"领导劝道："给你年薪八 千万知足吧。" 董明珠斜了一眼，8亿年薪我也不会同意的。 想象一下，在2004年的那个时间节点，八千万人民币意味着什么？那简直是一笔足以让一个家族几代人 彻底躺平的天文数字。当时，有一份现成的合同推到了董明珠面前，只要她点头，签字，这笔巨款就归 她个人所有。 但也就是在那一年，格力的会议室里爆发出了一声近乎咆哮的怒吼。面对外资方的代表和一部分只想套 现走人的内部高层，董明珠像一只被激怒的母狮子，甚至可以说有些失态地拍了桌子："别说给八千万 年薪，就算给八亿，休想！" 这是一场原本被许多人看作"双赢"的交易。那是中国家电业被外资并购狂潮席卷的年代，许多名噪一时 的本土品牌，像小鸭、香雪海，在拥有了雄厚外资背景的"继父"后，不但没能更上一层楼，反而迅速销 声匿迹，沦为了别人的代工厂或直接被雪藏。 那时候，全球制冷设备的巨头开利集团带着支票本来了，他们相中了格力，开价9个亿想要全资收购。 所以，当收购协议摆在桌上时，她脑子里闪过的不仅是那些冷冰冰的数字，更是车间里为了调试设备三 天三夜没合眼的工程师，是那些哪怕除夕夜 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has announced the early allocation of 625 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support the consumption upgrade policy, particularly focusing on the "two new" initiatives aimed at boosting consumer demand during peak seasons like New Year and Spring Festival [2]. Group 1: Policy Overview - The "two new" policy has expanded its coverage to include a wide range of consumer goods, from smartwatches to home appliances and vehicles [2][3]. - The policy emphasizes continuity and stability, with a focus on consumer goods exchange as a key strategy to expand domestic demand [2]. Group 2: Specific Measures - The updated policy includes new subsidies for equipment upgrades in various sectors, such as adding elevators in old residential areas and updating equipment in elderly care facilities [4]. - The consumer goods exchange program continues to support vehicle scrappage and replacement, as well as subsidies for six categories of home appliances, including refrigerators and air conditioners [4]. Group 3: Market Implications - Analysts suggest that the policy shift towards higher-value items like electric trucks and green appliances will enhance the effectiveness of fiscal spending in stimulating consumption [5]. - The transition from fixed subsidies to proportional subsidies for vehicles is expected to better reflect consumer purchasing power and encourage higher-quality purchases [5]. Group 4: Implementation Challenges - The government is addressing issues such as fraudulent claims and inefficient fund distribution, with measures to streamline application processes and enhance support for small businesses [6]. - A unified subsidy standard will be enforced nationwide to ensure consistency in the implementation of the "two new" policy [6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Beyond the "two new" policy, there are indications that the government may introduce additional measures to boost service consumption and stabilize investment, potentially through a mid-term plan focusing on cultural and tourism sectors [7]. - The fiscal policy is expected to work in tandem with consumption policies to support domestic demand recovery [7].

Group 1: Precious Metals - Guotai Junan Securities indicates that silver possesses higher elasticity in the short term, especially as it relates to AI narratives and its dual role as a precious metal and an asset linked to AI electricity [1] - Huaxi Securities notes that high volatility in precious metals is expected to continue in the short term, with silver, platinum, and palladium facing larger adjustments due to liquidity constraints, while gold is anticipated to stabilize sooner [2] - Citic Securities emphasizes that the macroeconomic backdrop remains favorable for precious metals in the medium to long term, with expectations of a long-term bull market supported by Fed easing and a weak dollar [2] Group 2: Internet Sector - Citic Securities reports that the internet sector is expected to experience a rebound driven by AI narratives and liquidity improvements, with a focus on model iteration and performance realization as key catalysts [3] - The report highlights the importance of selecting stocks based on performance visibility and valuation for companies with lower AI correlation, particularly in stable competitive landscapes and high-growth sectors [3] Group 3: Home Appliance Sector - Citic Securities identifies that the home appliance sector has shown underperformance compared to the market, but recovery opportunities are emerging, supported by domestic demand policies and a reduction in tariff impacts [4][5] - The report suggests focusing on leading home appliance companies with scale and technological strength, particularly in areas like domestic policy support and expansion into emerging markets [4][5] Group 4: Digital Currency - Citic Securities states that the digital yuan is evolving from a cash-replacement model to a deposit currency model, enhancing banks' stability and monetary policy transmission efficiency [6] - The report anticipates that banks will need to shift focus from qualification to capability in promoting digital yuan services, capitalizing on increased penetration rates [6] Group 5: Titanium Alloys - CITIC Jiantou highlights that titanium demand is expected to grow rapidly due to its unique properties, with applications expanding in aerospace, medical, and consumer electronics [7] - The report predicts a demand growth rate of over 10% for titanium alloys in the next three years, driven by advancements in 3D printing technology [7] Group 6: AI Industry - Huatai Securities expresses optimism about the AI industry trend, focusing on investment opportunities in the domestic and international computing power supply chain [8] - The report outlines three main investment lines for 2026, emphasizing the importance of AI computing power, new productivity sectors, and core assets with long-term competitive advantages [8]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Home Appliance Industry Industry Overview - The home appliance industry is expected to have a clear demand space in 2026, but growth momentum is limited, with marginal prosperity and structural changes being key influencing factors [1][3] - Categories with strong demand resilience or improved structures are likely to have higher performance certainty, particularly in the white goods and two-wheeler sectors [1] Core Insights and Arguments White Goods - The white goods sector is primarily driven by replacement demand, with structural growth opportunities in overseas markets. Leading companies are expected to achieve revenue growth of 5-10% [1][5] - Xiaomi's growth has slowed, and its high-end strategy has alleviated price competition, leading to an improved industry structure and increased performance certainty [1][5] - The overall valuation of the white goods sector is relatively low, with leading companies maintaining an upward trend, indicating potential for a strong rebound [3][12] Two-Wheeler Market - The two-wheeler market has essential demand characteristics, supported by inventory updates and structural growth opportunities in the mid-to-high-end market due to new national standards [1][9] - If domestic demand remains strong, the market could achieve single-digit growth [1][9] Black Goods - The black goods sector is experiencing a shrinking demand center but shows a trend of structural upgrades. However, external uncertainties and intense domestic competition may limit profit margin improvements [1][6] Kitchen Appliances and Lighting - Kitchen appliances and lighting are influenced by the real estate sector's post-cycle effects, with short-term demand potentially declining. However, the industry structure is improving, which could benefit leading companies in the medium term [1][7] Small Appliances and Cleaning Equipment - The small appliance sector is diverse and somewhat discretionary, with cleaning equipment being a focal point. Overseas demand is strong, but domestic risks exist due to subsidy factors [1][8] Additional Important Insights - The overall demand for the home appliance industry in 2025 was clear, but significant growth stories were lacking. Key factors include changes in marginal prosperity and industry structure [3] - Leading white goods companies are cash-rich and committed to increasing dividend payouts, with expectations of exceeding 70% [3][18] - The two-wheeler industry is expected to face a demand decline of 5-10% in 2026, but structural growth opportunities remain due to new standards and market dynamics [19][20] - The overseas market, particularly in Southeast Asia, presents significant potential for the two-wheeler industry, supported by favorable policies [21] - Brand expansion into international markets is crucial for future growth, with low penetration rates in emerging categories providing opportunities for Chinese brands [22] Investment Recommendations - Investment strategies for 2026 should focus on two main areas: dividend opportunities in white goods and two-wheelers, and overseas expansion potential in companies with reasonable valuations and strong brand/channel capabilities [29]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Moutai**: Focus on stable supply and market demand - **Angel Yeast**: Benefiting from cost reductions and market improvements - **Yili**: Anticipating price recovery in dairy products - **Li Ning**: Strategies for inventory and product innovation - **Electric Bicycle Industry**: Focus on leading companies like Yadea and Aima - **Home Appliances**: Impact of subsidy policies - **Pork Farming Industry**: Current market conditions and investment opportunities - **Smart Glasses Market**: Growth expectations and product developments Core Points and Arguments - **Moutai's Strategy**: In 2026, Moutai will maintain stable total supply while reducing high-value product investments and increasing supply of Feitian Moutai to tap into mass market demand, which is expected to stabilize prices in the long term [1][3] - **Angel Yeast's Performance**: Expected to outperform the sector in 2026 due to lower sugar molasses procurement costs and improvements in the domestic restaurant chain [1][4][5] - **Yili's Growth**: Anticipated turning point in milk prices in Q2 and Q3 of 2026, with a focus on product innovation and high-end branding to achieve quality growth [1][5] - **Li Ning's Strategy**: Effective inventory management and product innovation, including new running shoes, are expected to drive revenue recovery, with a projected profit of 2.7 billion yuan in 2026 [1][6][7] - **Electric Bicycle Industry Outlook**: Leading companies like Yadea and Aima are currently undervalued, with a focus on spring sales data to assess market recovery [1][8][9] - **Home Appliance Subsidy Policy**: The renewal of the subsidy policy, totaling 250 billion yuan, is expected to positively impact related sectors, including smart glasses, with projected sales growth of 78% in 2025 [1][11][12] - **Pork Farming Industry**: Continuous reduction in breeding sow capacity presents a window for investment in quality pork stocks, despite recent price recoveries not changing the fundamental supply-demand dynamics [2][31][32] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Smart Glasses Market**: Expected domestic shipment of 4.5 million units in 2025, indicating significant growth potential [1][12] - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies like Jimi Technology, TCL Electronics, and Anke Innovation are highlighted for their low valuations and growth potential in the context of new product lines and market recovery [1][14] - **Pork Industry Valuation**: Current valuations in the pork sector are considered severely undervalued, making it a prime area for investment [2][32] - **Poultry Industry Insights**: The yellow feather chicken market shows promising investment opportunities, while the white feather chicken market faces challenges due to seasonal factors [2][33] This summary encapsulates the essential insights and projections from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the discussed industries and companies.

家电｜26 年以旧换新政策解读 20251231 摘要 2026 年"以旧换新"政策总金额预计达 2,500 亿元，其中家电补贴约 800 亿元，补贴额度降至 15%，单台上限 1,500 元，仅限一级能效产 品，旨在提高资金效率并优化产品结构，稳定市场并促进高端品牌发展。 政策平稳接续保障 2026 年 Q1 零售市场，补贴聚焦大品类和一级能效 产品，提升资金效率，利好高端品牌和大企业，同时支持线下实体店和 农村市场，激发下沉市场需求，避免 2025 年补贴消耗过快问题。 以旧换新政策减轻零售商价格战压力，提升利润率，促进高端产品销售， 增强消费者信心，推动更新换代需求，尤其在农村及下沉市场，有利于 行业健康发展和供给侧改革。 2025 年家电和汽车为重点补贴品类，资金总量未缩减，核心品类企业 受益明显，全年资金分配更均衡，避免 2025 年 Q3 后牺牲 GMV 和毛利 自补资金的情况。 政策倾向线下渠道，带动整体经济，集合门店如天猫优选、京东家电等 取代专卖店体系，弥补渠道下沉不足，京东在政策获取和资金垫付上具 有显著优势。 Q&A 2026 年家电以旧换新政策的主要变化是什么？ 2026 年的家电以旧 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the A-share market, indicating that the market has moved past its bottom phase and is expected to continue its upward trend into 2026 [1][2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the A-share market is likely to experience a shift from valuation recovery to improved earnings expectations, with a projected overall profit growth of approximately 4.7% for 2026 [3][36]. - It highlights the importance of macroeconomic factors, including the restructuring of the global monetary order and the ongoing AI technology revolution, which are expected to support the performance of Chinese assets [2][12]. - The report suggests that the market may experience a balanced style shift, with a focus on sectors benefiting from high growth and innovation, as well as those poised for cyclical recovery [4][38]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic and Policy Environment - The report discusses the ongoing restructuring of international order and its impact on China's industrial innovation, suggesting that the safety of dollar assets is being questioned, which may benefit Chinese assets [12][16]. - It notes that while domestic demand still needs repair, external demand shows resilience, with exports expected to remain stable due to China's manufacturing advantages [13][14]. Earnings Outlook - The report forecasts a positive earnings growth trajectory for 2026, with non-financial corporate earnings expected to grow by around 8.2%, driven by policy implementation and improvements in supply-demand dynamics [36][37]. - It highlights that the banking sector may see stable earnings, while the brokerage and insurance sectors could benefit from an active capital market, although growth rates may moderate due to high base effects [37][39]. Structural Analysis - The report identifies key investment opportunities in high-growth sectors such as AI technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and high-end manufacturing, which are expected to contribute positively to overall market performance [38][39]. - It emphasizes the importance of the capacity cycle, noting that many industries are approaching improvement points after a period of capital expenditure reduction, which could lead to enhanced earnings elasticity [39][40]. - The report also points out that overseas expansion remains a significant growth opportunity for companies, with an increasing share of revenue coming from international markets [40].

按照全国统一的品类和标准，对个人消费者购买1级能效或水效标准的冰箱、洗衣机、电视、空调、热 水器、电脑6类家电产品，以及单件销售价格不超过6000元的手机、平板、智能手表、智能眼镜4类数码 和智能产品给予补贴。 补贴标准为上述产品扣除各环节优惠后最终销售价格的15%，每人每类可补贴1件，其中，家电产品每 件补贴不超过1500元，数码和智能产品每件补贴不超过500元。 免责声明：本文内容与数据由观点根据公开信息整理，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。 观点网讯：12月31日，据"上海商务"微信公众号消息，2026年上海家电以旧换新、数码和智能产品购新 补贴活动公告发布。 2026年，按照"消费者报名、公证摇号、中签发券"的方式开展家电以旧换新、数码和智能产品购新补贴 活动，原则上每两周开展一轮报名。 第一轮报名时间为2026年1月1日8点至5日20点，发券时间为1月7日12点至24点，核销时间为自补贴资格 券到账后14天。 ...