交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2026-3-11 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，2月官方制造业PMI为50.2%，较上月上升1.1个百分点，重回扩张区间。 中东伊朗局势再度生变，目前霍尔木兹海峡航运基本中断，但特朗普表示战争基本结束，同时G7 明确将使用战略储备，外盘原油出现显著回落。供需端，农膜方面，下游企业开工显著提升，春 耕需求启动，包装膜以刚需为主，由于原料上涨观望情绪较浓，管材方面开工率小幅回升，工地 陆续开工。当前LL交割品现货价7600（+180），基本面整体偏多； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差-167，升贴水比例-2.2%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存59.4万吨（-3.3），中性； • 4. 盘面： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report 2.1. Coking Coal - The supply of coking coal has become slightly more abundant as coal mines resume production. The market sentiment has improved, but high - priced coal still faces poor sales. The short - term price will be adjusted within a narrow range [4]. - The total sample inventory of coking coal is 1971 tons, a decrease of 243 tons from last week, which is positive for the market [3]. - The spot price of coking coal is at a premium to the futures price, the 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below it. The main position is net long but the long position is decreasing. Overall, the short - term price is expected to be weakly stable [3][4]. - Positive factors include rising hot metal production and limited supply growth; negative factors are the slowdown in raw coal procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [6]. 2.2. Coke - After the first round of price cuts, the profit margin of coking enterprises has narrowed. The supply of coke is stable, but the downstream steel mills' inventory is reasonable, and the procurement enthusiasm is limited, resulting in some inventory pressure on coking enterprises [8]. - The total sample inventory of coke is 944 tons, a decrease of 3 tons from last week, which is positive for the market [8]. - The spot price of coke is at a discount to the futures price, the 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below it. The main position is net long but the long position is decreasing. The short - term price is expected to remain stable [8]. - Positive factors are rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rate; negative factors are the squeezed profit margin of steel mills and partially overdrawn replenishment demand [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price - On March 10 (17:30), the port metallurgical coke price index showed that most of the coke prices in ports such as Rizhao Port, Tianjin Port, and Huangdao Port decreased by 10 yuan, and some prices remained unchanged [12]. 3.2. Coking Coal Spread No relevant content provided. 3.3. Coke Spread No relevant content provided. 3.4. Port Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 258 tons, unchanged from last week; coke port inventory is 199 tons, a decrease of 6 tons from last week [22]. 3.5. Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory - Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 893 tons, a decrease of 225 tons from last week; coke inventory is 56 tons, an increase of 12 tons from last week [26]. 3.6. Steel Mill Inventory - Steel mill coking coal inventory is 820 tons, a decrease of 18 tons from last week; coke inventory is 689 tons, a decrease of 9 tons from last week [31]. 3.7. Coke Oven Capacity Utilization No relevant content provided. 3.8. Average Profit per Ton of Coke No relevant content provided. 3.9. Daily Coke Output No relevant content provided. 3.10. Monthly Coke Output No relevant content provided. 3.11. Blast Furnace Operating Rate No relevant content provided. 3.12. Hot Metal Production No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - **沪镍**: The external market price fluctuates around the 20 - day moving average. Supply is sufficient with increased March production and rising domestic inventory. The nickel ore market has a strong bullish sentiment, and there is a contrast between strong demand in Indonesia and sluggish trading due to cost inversion in China. Nickel - iron prices continue to rebound with a firm cost line. Stainless - steel demand is weak despite a slight decline in inventory. New - energy vehicle production and sales data meet expectations, but there is a large month - on - month decline in the off - season. The conclusion is that SHFE nickel 2605 will oscillate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of stainless steel remains flat. In the short term, the nickel ore price is firm, demand in Indonesia is strong, nickel - iron prices are rebounding, and the cost line provides strong support. Stainless - steel inventory has slightly decreased, and demand is weak. Stainless steel 2604 will have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless - Steel Price Overview - **Futures Prices**: On March 10, the SHFE nickel主力 price was 137,050, up 530 from March 9; the LME nickel price was 17,545, up 115; the stainless - steel主力 price was 14,225, up 120. The nickel index on the Wuxi trading center was 136,800, down 450, and the cold - rolled index was 13,742, down 8 [9]. - **Spot Prices**: On March 10, the SMM1 electrolytic nickel price was 141,600, up 2,700; the 1 Jinchuan nickel price was 145,000, up 2,450; the 1 imported nickel price was 138,200, up 2,950; the nickel bean price was 140,800, up 3,050. Cold - rolled 304*2B stainless - steel prices in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged at 15,100 or 15,150 [9]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of March 6, the SHFE nickel inventory was 61,769 tons, with the futures inventory at 53,568 tons, increasing by 978 tons and 437 tons respectively [11]. - On March 10, the LME nickel inventory was 287,088, down 330 from March 9; the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 54,650, up 753; the total inventory was 341,738, up 423 [12]. Stainless - Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On March 6, the Wuxi stainless - steel inventory was 618,600 tons, the Foshan inventory was 398,300 tons, and the national inventory was 1,150,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,300 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 716,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,600 tons [16]. - On March 10, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 51,655, down 238 from March 9 [17]. Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - On March 10, the price of red - clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 80 dollars/wet ton, up 2; the price of red - clay nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 34.5 dollars/wet ton, up 2.5. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port increased by 2 dollars/ton [19]. - The price of high - nickel (8 - 12) wet tons was 1,087.52 yuan/nickel point, down 1.19; the price of low - nickel (below 2) wet tons remained unchanged at 3,750 yuan/ton [19]. Stainless - Steel Production Cost - The traditional cost of stainless steel is 14,184, the cost of scrap - steel production is 14,302, and the cost of low - nickel + pure - nickel production is 18,050 [21]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price is 137,120 yuan/ton [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. Core Viewpoints - The "escort" false news caused a "roller coaster" in crude oil prices, leading to gold prices fluctuating higher and silver prices rising and then falling. The US Navy's actions and subsequent denials led to significant fluctuations in oil prices. The International Energy Agency's proposal to release over 1.82 billion barrels of oil may lead to a recovery in risk appetite, and gold and silver prices may continue to rise [4][5]. - With the approaching mid - term elections, there is ongoing turmoil and continuous easing, and there is still support at the macro level. For silver, regulatory pressure remains, and the weakness of US technology stocks makes it difficult to restore sentiment [9][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: The "escort" false news caused a "roller coaster" in crude oil prices, and gold prices fluctuated higher. US stocks had mixed closing results, European stocks rose, US bond yields increased, the US dollar index rose, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures rose 1.86% to $5198.70 per ounce. The basis was - 4.46, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. Gold futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 104,934 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net long position increased [4]. - **Silver**: The "escort" false news caused a "roller coaster" in crude oil prices, and silver prices rose and then fell. US stocks had mixed closing results, European stocks rose, US bond yields increased, the US dollar index rose, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX silver futures rose 4.79% to $88.57 per ounce. The basis was - 378, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 5808 kilograms to 259,178 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net long position increased [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: Today, focus on China's January - February imports and exports, ECB officials' speeches, and the US February existing home sales. The US Navy's actions and subsequent denials led to significant fluctuations in oil prices, and gold prices fluctuated. The premium of Shanghai gold converged to 2.5 yuan per gram. With the IEA's proposal to release over 1.82 billion barrels of oil, risk appetite may recover, and gold prices may continue to rise [4]. - **Silver**: The US Navy's actions and subsequent denials led to significant fluctuations in oil prices, US stocks rose and then fell, and silver prices rose and then fell. The premium of Shanghai silver expanded to about 2780 yuan per kilogram. With the IEA's proposal to release over 1.82 billion barrels of oil, risk appetite may recover, and silver prices may continue to rise [5]. 3. Today's Focus - Time TBD: The morning closing of the Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference; the G7 meeting to discuss the Middle East situation and oil supply. - 15:00: Germany's February CPI final value. - 16:30: Speech by ECB Vice - President de Guindos. - 18:00: Speech by Bank of England Deputy Governor Breeden in Parliament. - 20:30: US February CPI; speech by Fed Governor Bowman on supervision and regulation. - 23:10: Speech by ECB Executive Board Member Schnabel. - 02:00 the next day: US February government budget [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: There are factors such as global turmoil, tense Middle East situation, possible new Fed chairman selection and increased easing expectations, and Trump's tariff disputes as positives. Negative factors include the fading marginal impact of Trump's "escape" strategy, large internal differences within the Fed and the possible suspension of interest rate cuts, and optimistic expectations for Russia - Ukraine peace talks [13]. - **Silver**: Positive factors include global turmoil, tense Middle East situation, possible new Fed chairman selection and increased easing expectations, Trump's tariff disputes, support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors, and low spot inventory. Negative factors include the fading marginal impact of Trump's "escape" strategy, large internal differences within the Fed and the possible suspension of interest rate cuts, deterioration of risk appetite, and optimistic expectations for Russia - Ukraine peace talks [13]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: In the top 20 positions of Shanghai gold, on March 10, 2026, the long - position volume was 162,676, an increase of 3.83% from the previous day; the short - position volume was 40,783, a decrease of 5.72% from the previous day; the net position was 121,893, an increase of 7.47% from the previous day [37]. - **Silver**: In the top 20 positions of Shanghai silver, on March 10, 2026, the long - position volume was 262,000, an increase of 0.67% from the previous day; the short - position volume was 260,262, an increase of 0.04% from the previous day; the net position was 1,738, an increase of 1789.13% from the previous day [39]. - **ETF Positions**: SPDR gold ETF positions increased slightly, while silver ETF positions continued to decrease [42][44]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: COMEX gold warehouse receipts decreased slightly but remained at a high level, and Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts increased slightly and were at the lowest level in the past six years, while COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to decrease significantly [46][48].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market is that prices are in a state of shock consolidation, with a relatively neutral domestic fundamental situation and stable domestic oil and fat supply. The Sino - US relationship is tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and it is expected to implement the B50 plan in 2026 [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in December, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January shows a 29% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8684, with a basis of 240, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons from the previous 1.08 million tons, and an increase of 14.7% year - on - year [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [2] - **Main Position**: The main long positions of soybean oil are decreasing [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8200 - 8600 [2] Daily Viewpoints - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows relevant data of Malaysian palm oil, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9340, with a basis of 122, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, an increase of 2200 tons from the previous 733,800 tons, and an increase of 46% year - on - year [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [3] - **Main Position**: The main short positions of palm oil are increasing [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2605 will fluctuate in the range of 9100 - 9500 [3] Daily Viewpoints - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows relevant data of Malaysian palm oil, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10260, with a basis of 547, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous 270,000 tons, and a decrease of 44% year - on - year [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4] - **Main Position**: The main short positions of rapeseed oil are increasing [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will fluctuate in the range of 9400 - 9800 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamental situation of oils and fats is relatively loose [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakly stable, and the ore price will continue to fluctuate. The short - term and intraday trends of iron ore 2605 are slightly upward, and the medium - term trend is fluctuating. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2605, the short - term trend is slightly upward, the medium - term trend is fluctuating, and the intraday trend is slightly upward. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and the ore price continues to fluctuate [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not improved. The terminal consumption of ore has declined again, and the profitability of steel mills is poor. The contradictions in the steel market are accumulating, and the ore demand continues to be weak. At the same time, the arrival of goods at domestic ports has increased, while the shipments of miners have declined from the high level. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrivals will be stable, and domestic mines are resuming production, so the ore supply is increasing steadily. In general, the iron ore demand is weakening, and the supply is increasing steadily. The fundamentals of the iron ore market are weakly stable, and the ore price is still under pressure, but the structural contradictions support the price. Under the game of long and short factors, the ore price is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance of the steel market [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton in the farming, forestry, and livestock sector is "Oscillating" [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The USDA monthly report was bearish but did not drag down the upward movement of the external market. The main 05 contract settled at 65.3 cents, with a gain of over 1%. Zhengzhou cotton had a catch - up rise in the night session, and the main contract broke through the 15,500 yuan/ton mark again. Overall, under the dual influence of the decline in the new - season planting area and the need to verify peak - season demand, Zhengzhou cotton has short - term correction pressure and a long - term bullish outlook [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton had a total trading volume of 606,268 and an open interest of 1,130,526. The settlement prices were 15,285 for the May contract, 15,345 for the September contract, and 15,655 for the January contract. The ICE May contract settled at 65.30, up 68 points; the July contract was at 67.17, up 60 points; the December contract was at 69.85, up 52 points, with a trading volume of about 72,000 lots [2] Important Information - On March 9, spinning enterprises in the Bortala region of northern Xinjiang purchased machine - picked new cotton of color - grade double 29 with less than 2.7% impurity in Xinjiang warehouses. The basis transaction price for the 2605 contract was 1,350 - 1,450 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price was 16,600 - 16,750 yuan/ton, up 30 - 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - Thunderstorms brought precipitation to the cotton - growing area in South Texas, and the central - southern cotton - growing area experienced severe convective weather [2] - In February, Brazil's cotton export volume was 270,000 tons, a 14.7% decrease from the previous month (317,000 tons) and a 1.5% decrease year - on - year (275,000 tons) [2] - On March 9, the cotton yarn futures had increased trading volume and decreased open interest, with prices rising, and the spot prices rose slightly. Affected by the large fluctuations in crude oil, cotton prices rose and fell rapidly today. The overall quotation in the cotton yarn spot market was raised, with the high increase being 300 - 500 yuan and the low increase being 100 - 200 yuan, but the downstream acceptance was low, and there were real - order discounts. Some spinning enterprises in the inland did not raise prices [2] Market Logic - The bearish USDA monthly report did not prevent the upward movement of the external market. Zhengzhou cotton had a catch - up rise at night. In the short term, there is correction pressure, and in the long term, it maintains a bullish view [2] Trading Strategy - Hold long positions in the 05 contract below 15,300 yuan/ton and control the position [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of treasury bond futures may be volatile, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - On Tuesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher across the board, fell in the morning session, and rebounded slightly in the afternoon. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2606 rose 0.04%, the 10 - year T2606 remained flat, the 5 - year TF2606 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2606 rose 0.01% [1] 3.2 Important Information - Open market: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 39.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 34.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 5.2 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Tuesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained flat compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.32% throughout the day, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.44%, compared with 1.45% on the previous trading day [1] - Cash bond market: On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds rose 0.17 BP to 1.36%, the 5 - year yield declined 0.44 BP to 1.56%, the 10 - year yield rose 0.01 BP to 1.81%, and the 30 - year yield rose 0.36 BP to 2.33% [1] - Trade data: In US dollars, China's exports from January to February increased 21.8% year - on - year, with an estimated increase of 7.3%, and an increase of 6.6% in December last year; imports from January to February increased 19.8% year - on - year, with an estimated increase of 6.9%, and an increase of 5.7% in December last year; the trade surplus from January to February was 213.62 billion US dollars [1] - Warning: ExxonMobil's chief economist Tyler Goodspeed warned that the Strait of Hormuz may remain closed for a longer period than the market expected [1] 3.3 Market Logic - In US dollars, China's exports from January to February increased 21.8% year - on - year, with an estimated increase of 7.3%, and an increase of 6.6% in December last year. China's CPI in February rose 1.3% year - on - year, higher than the market expectation of 0.9%; PPI in February decreased 0.9% year - on - year, better than the market expectation of a 1.2% decline. The overall inflation level in China in February rebounded more than expected. The core CPI in February rose 0.7% month - on - month, and PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month [1] - The US President said on Monday that the war was basically over and was considering controlling the Strait of Hormuz. Market panic dissipated, risk assets counterattacked strongly, and crude oil prices dropped significantly. On Tuesday, the Wind All - A Index opened higher, fluctuated at a high level throughout the day, and rose slowly, closing with a long - bare - headed and bare - footed small阳线, up 1.58%, with a trading volume of 2.42 trillion yuan, a slight contraction compared with 2.67 trillion yuan on the previous trading day. Treasury bond futures stabilized in the late trading on Tuesday [1][2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors should conduct band operations [2]

| 甲醇 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 地缘风险降温，甲醇震荡偏弱 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 偏强 | 中期 偏强 | 日内 偏弱 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2026-03-11 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡偏强 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The risk preference of the stock market may be restored, and in the short term, IM/IC may perform better than the weighted stocks. The concern is on the repair opportunities of IM/IC, but be cautious about chasing ups and selling downs [15][16]. - The concern about malignant imported inflation has eased, but the high risk preference still suppresses the bond market. The medium - and short - term bonds may be judged as bearish, and it may not be necessary to rush to buy at the bottom [17]. - For steel, take profit on short - term long positions at high prices, hold the previously sold wide - straddle options; hold the iron ore sold wide - straddle strategy and hold some long - term short positions. For the iron ore 05 - 09 spread, participate in positive arbitrage at low prices [19]. - The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate in the short term, and continue to pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand and the fluctuation of international crude oil prices. In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern is expected to continue to fluctuate widely [20][22]. - For ferrosilicon and manganese silicon, short at high prices in the short term, and be cautious about the over - expected rise caused by the further fermentation of energy sentiment [23]. - For soda ash and glass, adopt a wait - and - see attitude for now [23]. - The copper price may fluctuate in the short term due to inventory suppression, and pay attention to the inventory change rhythm and macro changes [26]. - For zinc, adopt a bearish - biased and oscillatory thinking, and operate short positions cyclically [26]. - For lead, after taking profit on the previous short positions, wait for the price to rise and then arrange short positions [28]. - Lithium carbonate may fluctuate widely in the short term, and pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [30]. - Industrial silicon may fluctuate, and continue to pay attention to the opportunity of selling wide - straddle options; polysilicon may fluctuate weakly, and wait and see for now [31]. - Cotton may run strongly at a high level, and pay attention to the actual demand of the "Golden March and Silver April" market and the impact of peripheral conflicts [33]. - Sugar may rebound with pressure and operate in a high - level oscillatory manner [34]. - The spot price of eggs may rise in March, but the supply pressure is still large. The futures contracts in the second quarter may enter an oscillatory pattern, and be cautious about shorting at the current position. The active replenishment in the breeding link suppresses the contracts in the second half of the year [36]. - High - quality apple sources may continue a strong trend, and the futures market may run strongly [38][39]. - Be cautious about chasing up the corn price to prevent it from falling back after rising, and choose to do 5 - 7 reverse arbitrage [40]. - Red dates may maintain a weak oscillatory trend [40]. - The spot price of live pigs continues to be under pressure, and the futures market is expected to oscillate at a low level [43]. - The geopolitical premium of crude oil has significantly subsided, but there are still many variables. If the conflict ends and navigation resumes, the oil price may have a large decline [43]. - Fuel oil may enter a high - level fluctuation [44]. - Polyolefins may enter an oscillatory stage in the short term, and the future price trend depends on when the war is resolved [45]. - For rubber, be cautious about unilateral trading, continue to pay attention to narrowing the RU - NR and RU - BR price differences in mid - to late March, and wait and see after taking profit, and then pay attention to the opportunity of selling put options at low prices [48]. - Synthetic rubber may maintain high volatility in the short term, and wait and see overall [49]. - The short - term price of methanol may continue to pull back, and the long - term supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, but there is great uncertainty [50]. - For caustic soda, maintain a wide - range, bearish - biased and oscillatory thinking before the overseas war ends, and do not hold long - term positions [51]. - The price of asphalt still follows the oil price to oscillate and adjust [52]. - PVC may be weak in the short term, and the long - term trend depends on when the war is resolved [53]. - The short - term trend of the polyester industry chain is still dominated by the crude oil price and market sentiment, and pay attention to the implementation progress of device maintenance and the substantial recovery of polyester demand in the medium and long term [54]. - LPG is expected to remain strong but relatively weaker than crude oil [55]. - For pulp, if the market trading environment improves and the port inventory starts to decline, you can try to go long at low prices or pay attention to the accumulation - purchase strategy, and pay attention to macro - risk prevention [57]. - Logs may oscillate upward in the short term, and pay attention to the impact of the first new delivery after the adjustment of the delivery rules and the impact of the US - Iran conflict on commodities and the macro - sentiment [58]. - For urea, adopt a short - at - high strategy [59]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Based on Fundamental Analysis - **Trend Bearish**: Caustic soda, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, bottle chips, short - fiber, ethylene glycol, PTA, urea, live pigs, red dates, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, plastic, PVC, methanol [3]. - **Oscillatory and Bearish - Biased**: Zinc, lead, rubber, industrial silicon, polysilicon, white sugar, cotton, synthetic rubber, offset printing paper, pulp, log, rebar, iron ore, hot - rolled coil, egg, corn, copper, glass, soda ash, coke, coking coal, CSI 300 stock index futures, CSI 500 stock index futures, CSI 1000 index futures, SSE 50 stock index futures, crude oil [3]. - **Oscillatory and Bullish - Biased**: Asphalt, fuel oil, apple [3]. Based on Quantitative Indicator Analysis - **Bearish - Biased**: Hot - rolled coil, soybeans No. 2, PVC, rapeseed oil, plastic, iron ore [8]. - **Oscillatory**: Rapeseed meal, Zhengzhou cotton, manganese silicon, soybean No. 1, palm oil, soybean meal, corn starch, Shanghai zinc, Shanghai silver, PTA, soybean oil, Shanghai gold, methanol, white sugar, egg, polypropylene, Shanghai aluminum, rebar, glass [8]. - **Bullish - Biased**: Coking coal, Shanghai tin, coke, Shanghai lead, rubber, corn, Shanghai copper [8]. Macro News - The US - Iran conflict situation: Trump said the war would end soon but not this week. Israel said the action against Iran was not over. Iran said its priority was "decisive defense" [10]. - China's foreign trade data: In the first two months of this year, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 7.73 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.3%. Exports were 4.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 19.2%; imports were 3.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 17.1%. The import and export to the US decreased by 16.9%, while those to ASEAN and the EU increased by about 20% [10]. - Shipping industry: The Ministry of Transport and the National Development and Reform Commission held talks with the person - in - charge of Maersk Group and Mediterranean Shipping Company [10]. - Internet security: Some financial institutions were required to strictly control the deployment of external platforms like OpenClaw due to security concerns [11]. - Mobile phone price increase: OPPO will adjust the prices of some products from March 16. Other brands like Xiaomi, vivo, and Honor are also planning price increases in March [11]. - Housing provident fund policy: Chengdu plans to introduce a new housing provident fund policy, including increasing the loan limit by 200,000 yuan, canceling the limit on the number of provident fund loans, etc. [11]. - Technology companies: Tencent is secretly developing an AI agent for WeChat, which is expected to start gray - box testing in the middle of this year and be launched to all users in the third quarter [11]. - AI industry: Anthropic added a code review function to Claude Code, challenging the code security audit industry [12]. - International relations: Trump warned Iran not to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The US asked Israel to stop further air strikes on Iran's energy facilities. The US - Russia - Ukraine tripartite talks will be postponed to next week [12]. - Economic data: South Korea's GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025 contracted by 0.2% quarter - on - quarter, and the annual economic growth in 2025 was 1% [12]. - IPO news: SpaceX prefers to list on the NASDAQ, and this listing is expected to be the largest in history [13]. - Fiscal policy: In 2026, the national debt limit is 485,508 billion yuan, the local government general debt limit is 188,689 billion yuan, and the special debt limit is 443,185 billion yuan. The National People's Congress Financial and Economic Committee suggests preventing special - debt repayment risks [13]. - Oil supply: Iran restated that hostile vessels have no right to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait have cut oil production by about 6.7 million barrels per day, reducing the global oil supply by about 6% [13]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The risk preference may be restored, and in the short term, IM/IC may perform better than the weighted stocks. Pay attention to the repair opportunities of IM/IC but be cautious about chasing ups and selling downs [15][16]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The concern about malignant imported inflation has eased, but the high risk preference still suppresses the bond market. The medium - and short - term bonds may be judged as bearish, and it may not be necessary to rush to buy at the bottom [17]. Black Commodities - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The current order situation of steel is okay, but the inventory of hot - rolled coils is high, which suppresses steel prices. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is good. The profit of steel mills is at a low level, and the iron - water output has increased slightly. In the short term, take profit on long positions of steel at high prices, hold the previously sold wide - straddle options; hold the iron ore sold wide - straddle strategy and hold some long - term short positions. For the iron ore 05 - 09 spread, participate in positive arbitrage at low prices [18][19]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices may fluctuate in the short term, and continue to pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand and the fluctuation of international crude oil prices. In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern is expected to continue to fluctuate widely [20][22]. - **Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: The absolute prices are still relatively high, and it is mainly short - at - high in the short term. Be cautious about the over - expected rise caused by the further fermentation of energy sentiment [23]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Adopt a wait - and - see attitude for now. For soda ash, pay attention to the supply stability of leading enterprises and the progress of new production capacity. For glass, pay attention to the actual changes in production lines and the recovery of demand [23][24]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The geopolitical tension has eased, but the copper price may fluctuate in the short term due to inventory suppression. Pay attention to the inventory change rhythm and macro changes [26]. - **Zinc**: Adopt a bearish - biased and oscillatory thinking, and operate short positions cyclically [26]. - **Lead**: After taking profit on the previous short positions, wait for the price to rise and then arrange short positions [28]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It may fluctuate widely in the short term, and pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [30]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon may fluctuate, and continue to pay attention to the opportunity of selling wide - straddle options; polysilicon may fluctuate weakly, and wait and see for now [31]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: It may run strongly at a high level, and pay attention to the actual demand of the "Golden March and Silver April" market and the impact of peripheral conflicts [33]. - **Sugar**: It may rebound with pressure and operate in a high - level oscillatory manner [34]. - **Eggs**: The spot price may rise in March, but the supply pressure is still large. The futures contracts in the second quarter may enter an oscillatory pattern, and be cautious about shorting at the current position. The active replenishment in the breeding link suppresses the contracts in the second half of the year [36]. - **Apples**: High - quality sources may continue a strong trend, and the futures market may run strongly [38][39]. - **Corn**: Be cautious about chasing up the price to prevent it from falling back after rising, and choose to do 5 - 7 reverse arbitrage [40]. - **Red Dates**: They may maintain a weak oscillatory trend [40]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price continues to be under pressure, and the futures market is expected to oscillate at a low level [43]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical premium has significantly subsided, but there are still many variables. If the conflict ends and navigation resumes, the oil price may have a large decline [43]. - **Fuel Oil**: It may enter a high - level fluctuation [44]. - **Polyolefins**: They may enter an oscillatory stage in the short term, and the future price trend depends on when the war is resolved [45]. - **Rubber**: Be cautious about unilateral trading, continue to pay attention to narrowing the RU - NR and RU - BR price differences in mid - to late March, and wait and see after taking profit, and then pay attention to the opportunity of selling put options at low prices [48]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It may maintain high volatility in the short term, and wait and see overall [49]. - **Methanol**: The short - term price may continue to pull back, and the long - term supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, but there is great uncertainty [50]. - **Caustic Soda**: Maintain a wide - range, bearish - biased and oscillatory thinking before the overseas war ends, and do not hold long - term positions [51]. - **Asphalt**: The price still follows the oil price to oscillate and adjust [52]. - **PVC**: It may be weak in the short term, and the long - term trend depends on when the war is resolved [53]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The short - term trend is still dominated by the crude oil price and market sentiment, and pay attention to the implementation progress of device maintenance and the substantial recovery of polyester demand in the medium and long term [54]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: It is expected to remain strong but relatively weaker than crude oil [55]. - **Pulp**: If the market trading environment improves and the port inventory starts to decline, you can try to go long at low prices or pay attention to the accumulation - purchase strategy, and pay attention to macro - risk prevention [57]. - **Logs**: They may oscillate upward in the short term, and pay attention to the impact of the first new delivery after the adjustment of the delivery rules and the impact of the US - Iran conflict on commodities and the macro - sentiment [58]. - **Urea**: Adopt a short - at - high strategy [59].