Group 1 - The agricultural industry in Shaanxi is steadily advancing, with 143 industrial chain investment projects collected, totaling an investment of 12.87 billion yuan, achieving "half the time, half the tasks" in core indicators [1][2] - A total of 115 key counties and districts in the industrial chain have been dynamically identified, along with 90 "chain leaders" and 28 key enterprises, with 200 key projects planned for a total investment of nearly 5 billion yuan [1] - Shaanxi has successfully applied for two national-level industrial clusters and seven national-level strong agricultural towns, securing 470 million yuan in central funding [1] Group 2 - Five new national key leading enterprises have been added, bringing the total number of recognized leading enterprises in Shaanxi to 2,322 [2] - In 2024, leading enterprises in Shaanxi achieved a revenue of 167.3 billion yuan, a net profit of 8.962 billion yuan, and paid 2.918 billion yuan in taxes, directly benefiting approximately 3.34 million farming households [2] - Shaanxi has developed a list of 20 key tasks for 2025 and is planning 63 processing-related investment projects, with two local specialty products proposed for recognition as typical cases by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs [2]

Core Viewpoint - The transformation of Youzhangzi Village from a traditional farming model to a modern agricultural processing approach has significantly improved the livelihoods of its residents, showcasing the effectiveness of targeted poverty alleviation efforts by state-owned enterprises [1][2][3]. Group 1: Infrastructure Development - The establishment of a modern grain processing factory in Youzhangzi Village, funded by the railway department with an investment of 1.7 million yuan, has created a stable environment for the local millet industry [1]. - The factory serves as a "safe haven" for the millet industry, addressing issues such as price suppression by middlemen, transportation losses, and storage spoilage [1]. Group 2: Market Integration - The collaboration with Liaoning Jinhua Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. for the operation of the processing factory has facilitated market access for local farmers, ensuring that the village's millet is prioritized for purchase at a price 0.5 yuan higher per kilogram than the market rate [2]. - This price premium not only recognizes the quality of the villagers' products but also respects their labor, thereby enhancing their economic situation [2]. Group 3: Community Impact - The processing factory has generated local employment opportunities, allowing villagers to focus on farming while ensuring their products reach the market efficiently [3]. - The initiative has fostered a sense of confidence among villagers, encouraging them to invest in their agricultural practices and contributing to the overall economic vitality of Youzhangzi Village [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the soybean meal market is experiencing mixed price movements, with a notable increase in some regions while others see declines [1] - As of July 25, the national soybean meal prices show a range of 2940 to 2950 CNY per ton, with specific prices listed for various trading companies and locations [1] - The futures market on July 25 closed at 3021.00 CNY per ton for the main soybean meal contract, reflecting a decrease of 0.66% [1] Group 2 - The USDA reported that for the week ending July 17, the net sales of U.S. soybean meal for the 2024/2025 marketing year were 182,600 tons, a 49% decrease from the previous week [2] - The total transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills across the country reached 211,300 tons on July 24, an increase of 101,000 tons from the previous trading day [3] - According to Guantong Futures, the soybean meal market is characterized by ample supply but average demand, with expectations of a weak market trend moving forward [4]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年07月25日 (原油) 三季度旺季以来石油市场延续了上半年的累库趋势,其中原油去库0.6%、成品油累库1.7%， OPEC+增产路径下石油市场的供需盈余压力始终存在。7月原油市场进入伊以冲突剧烈波动后的震荡 修复期,近期月差、现货升贴水转弱,海外柴油裂解在东西套利窗口打开后亦有所回落,此前支撑 市场的旺季强现实因素转弱。尽管美日协议以利好落地,美国与欧盟、中国的贸易战风险仍令市场 面临需求预期冲击，近期相关利空风险大于地缘端利多，油价以震荡承压为主；8月底、9月初伊 核、俄乌协议面临欧美施压的最后期限,届时地缘犹动有望再度为市场带来支撑。 【责金属】 隔夜美国7月标普全球制造业PMI初值49.5不及预期但服务业PM155.2表现偏强,周度初请失业金人 数21.7万人维持低位,经济数据体现韧性。美国与多个国家关税协议有望陆续达成,截止日前市场 不确定性仍存，但超预期对抗的概率在下降,贵金属宽幅震荡为主。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜收跌，与多数工业品相比,近期铜市场情绪偏谨慎,倾向铜价上方整数关阻力大。美欧服 务业PM1强劲，德国制造业动能转折， ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformation of lychee from a royal delicacy to a common fruit enjoyed by the public, facilitated by modern logistics and financial support from Postal Savings Bank [1][10][15] - Postal Savings Bank leverages its integrated resources in logistics, finance, and e-commerce to support the lychee industry, enhancing its supply chain and financial accessibility for farmers [1][6][9] Group 1: Industry Overview - Lychee, a traditional product of Guangdong, has a cultivation history of over 2,300 years, with Maoming being a major production area, accounting for one in five lychees globally [1][4] - The current lychee harvest season sees significant sales, with local companies like Bojian Agriculture selling approximately 75,000 pounds daily [4] Group 2: Financial Support and Innovations - Postal Savings Bank has established a special team to understand the financial needs of lychee farmers, providing tailored financial solutions and support [6][14] - The bank has issued loans totaling 863 million yuan to the lychee industry by June 2025, facilitating the growth and operational needs of local businesses [6][14] Group 3: Logistics and Supply Chain - The bank's support includes enhancing cold chain logistics, which is crucial for maintaining the freshness of lychees during transportation [7][12] - Postal Savings Bank collaborates with local postal services to streamline the sales process, ensuring that lychees reach markets quickly and efficiently [9][12] Group 4: Market Impact - The integration of financial services has allowed farmers and distributors to increase their production and sales, with some reporting significant income growth due to improved logistics and financing [7][12] - The demand for lychee has surged, with some vendors selling 10-15 tons daily, reflecting a robust market response to the enhanced supply chain [12][14]

Core Insights - The establishment of the BaoSheng Clean Vegetable Manufacturing Center in Dangwan Town aims to enhance local agricultural productivity and improve villagers' income through modern agricultural practices and job creation [1][2] Group 1: Company Overview - BaoSheng Group invested 200 million yuan to build the Clean Vegetable Manufacturing Center, equipped with advanced production lines and processing equipment, with an annual production capacity exceeding 40,000 tons and storage capacity over 4,000 tons [1] - The project integrates modern agricultural production, order agriculture, and clean vegetable processing, creating a streamlined supply chain from farm to table [1] Group 2: Employment and Community Impact - The Clean Vegetable Workshop has created job opportunities for local villagers, hiring 37 individuals since its recruitment began in October last year, with 81% of the hires coming from nearby villages [2] - The average monthly income for workers at the workshop exceeds 6,000 yuan, providing stable employment close to home [2] - The workshop collaborates with local agricultural producers to enhance raw material procurement, reducing planting risks and increasing product value, thereby supporting local farmers [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The oil market has continued the inventory accumulation trend since the third - quarter peak season, with supply - demand surplus pressure due to OPEC+ production increases. Oil prices are mainly under pressure in the short term but may be supported by geopolitical factors later [2]. - Precious metals are in a wide - range oscillation as economic data shows resilience and the probability of extreme tariff confrontation is decreasing [3]. - Different commodities have various trends influenced by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitical situations, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed for each commodity [2 - 49]. Summary by Categories Energy Crude Oil - Since the third - quarter peak season, the oil market has seen crude oil inventory decline by 0.6% and refined oil inventory increase by 1.7%. The supply - demand surplus pressure persists. Oil prices are under pressure in the short term but may be supported by geopolitical factors later [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The 18th round of EU sanctions on Russia has reduced the supply risk of high - sulfur resources. FU is relatively weak, and LU follows crude oil with less volatility [22]. Asphalt - It is supported at around 3590 yuan/ton. August refinery production is expected to decline, and demand recovery is delayed. Low inventory provides support but limits the upside [23]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Overseas market decline has driven the domestic market down. With weak supply and demand, the domestic market may stabilize, and the futures market is weak [24]. Metals Copper - The copper market is cautious, with resistance at the upper integer level. It is recommended to hold a short position lightly [4]. Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum market is in a narrow - range oscillation, with resistance at around 21,000 yuan. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. Zinc - Supported by cost, it oscillates around 23,000 yuan. There is a chance to go short at a high level [8]. Lead - With tight raw material supply and cost support, it shows limited downside. It is recommended to buy call options lightly [9]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel market is in the middle - late stage of a rebound. Wait for a short - selling opportunity [10]. Tin - The Shanghai tin market has risen above 270,000 yuan, but the long - term trend is not optimistic. Consider reducing short positions [11]. Manganese and Silicon - Manganese - Silicon - manganese inventory is decreasing, and it follows the trend of rebar with a relatively small increase [19]. Iron Ore - Supply is stable, and demand is resilient. It follows the black - series trend but is at a relatively high price [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - Both coking coal and coke are expected to maintain an upward trend in the short term [17][18]. Chemicals Urea - Agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season, and overall demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate [25]. Methanol - The futures market is strong, affected by policies. Inventory is decreasing, and attention should be paid to market rhythm [26]. Pure Benzene - Its price has strengthened, with seasonal improvement expected in the third - quarter and pressure in the fourth - quarter. Consider monthly spread trading [27]. Styrene - It continues to move sideways, with weakening macro - support and poor spot trading [28]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - Propylene supply pressure increases, polyethylene has weak fundamentals, and polypropylene's short - term increase is limited [29]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC is strong due to policies, but long - term growth is uncertain. Caustic soda is also strong, and attention should be paid to capacity reduction [30]. PX and PTA - Their prices are rising, with PTA having room for processing margin repair. Follow domestic policies [31]. Ethylene Glycol - It is rising, supported by coal market sentiment and policies. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [32]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - Their prices follow raw materials. Short - fiber may be bullish in the medium - term, and bottle - chip's profit repair is limited [33]. Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate before tariff and weather issues are clear [37]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Maintain a strategy of buying on dips, and pay attention to weather and policies [38]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed - related products are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [39]. Corn - The corn market has few contradictions, and Dalian corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly [41]. Live Pigs - Near - month contracts may face a risk of decline, while far - month contracts are affected by capacity reduction expectations [42]. Eggs - Near - month contracts may be under pressure, and far - month contracts may rise after capacity reduction [43]. Cotton - The Zhengzhou cotton market is in a high - level oscillation. Wait and see or conduct intraday trading [44]. Sugar - The sugar price is expected to oscillate, with pressure on US sugar and uncertainties in domestic production [45]. Apples - The futures price is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the price of new - season early - maturing apples [46]. Others Timber - The futures price is oscillating. Supply is limited, but demand is in the off - season, so wait and see [47]. Pulp - It may oscillate strongly following commodities. Consider buying on dips lightly [48]. Stock Index - The stock index has risen, and the market risk preference is stable. Increase allocation to the technology - growth sector [49]. Treasury Bonds - Bond yields are rising. Pay attention to the opportunity for curve steepening [50]. Shipping - The container shipping index (European line) may oscillate widely in the short term. Consider short - selling on rallies [21].

Group 1 - The ASEAN Secretary-General emphasized the strong vitality and resilience of the economic relationship between ASEAN and China, highlighting the need for a stable economic framework to ensure the effective implementation of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 and RCEP [2] - The meeting showcased the significant leap in economic cooperation between Beijing and ASEAN over the past decade, evolving from traditional trade partners to a comprehensive strategic partnership [2][3] - The ASEAN Economic Community is focusing on digital infrastructure development and green energy transition, with a competitive edge in electronic manufacturing and agricultural processing, aiming for precise alignment with China in multiple sectors [3] Group 2 - The meeting served as a platform for nearly 30 executives from Chinese and ASEAN companies to exchange ideas, highlighting the broad cooperation space among enterprises in energy, finance, pharmaceuticals, and digital economy [3] - The ASEAN Trade Promotion Association, established in August 2024, aims to facilitate high-level dialogues and business connections, injecting new momentum into the deepening of the China-ASEAN strategic partnership [4] - The emphasis on cooperation in digital economy, green energy, and technological innovation was identified as future focal points for collaboration, with the ASEAN Trade Promotion Association playing a bridging role [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating, but offers investment suggestions for different asset classes and sectors: - Stocks: Short - term cautious long [2][3] - Bonds: Short - term high - level oscillatory correction, cautious wait - and - see [2] - Commodities: - Black metals: Short - term volatile increase, short - term cautious long [2] - Non - ferrous metals: Short - term oscillatory rebound, short - term cautious long [2] - Energy and chemicals: Short - term oscillation, cautious wait - and - see [2] - Precious metals: Short - term high - level oscillation, cautious long [2] Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, and the US economic growth accelerated due to better - than - expected PMI and employment data, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index and an increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, although the economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, consumption and investment slowed down in June. The "anti - involution" policy and the ten - industry growth - stabilizing policies are expected to boost domestic risk appetite [2]. - Different asset classes and sectors have different trends and investment suggestions based on their fundamentals and policy impacts. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Global situation**: The European Central Bank's decision, the EU's anti - tariff plan, and the easing of global trade tensions, along with the better - than - expected US economic data, have led to a rise in global risk appetite. The US dollar index rebounded [2]. - **Domestic situation**: The first - half economic growth was higher than expected, but June consumption and investment slowed. Policy measures are expected to boost domestic risk appetite [2]. - **Asset performance**: Stocks are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term; bonds to correct at a high level; black metals to be volatile; non - ferrous metals to rebound; energy and chemicals to oscillate; precious metals to oscillate at a high level [2]. Stocks - Driven by sectors such as Hainan concept, energy metals, and rare earth permanent magnets, the domestic stock market continued to rise. The short - term macro - upward drive has increased, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market was oscillating strongly on Thursday. The supply contraction expectation of coking coal supported the steel market. The real - world demand was weak, and the production and consumption of five major steel products decreased. The supply may be restricted around the 9.3 parade. The market is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [4]. - **Iron ore**: The spot price of iron ore rebounded slightly on Thursday, while the futures price continued to weaken. The pig iron production is at a high level but has limited upward space. The global iron ore shipment increased, but the shipment from Australia and Brazil decreased. The price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [4]. - **Silicon manganese/silicon iron**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese decreased on Thursday. The demand for ferroalloys was weak due to the decline in steel production. The prices of raw materials such as manganese ore and coal were strong. The steel tender price increased. The prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The EU and the US are approaching a tariff agreement. The upcoming Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's growth - stabilizing plan has boosted sentiment. The future trend of copper prices depends on the tariff implementation time [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum oscillated narrowly on Thursday. The import of scrap aluminum decreased. The fundamentals are weak, but the policy has boosted sentiment. The price increase is limited [11]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term but has limited upward space [11]. - **Tin**: The supply is recovering, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the upward space will be restricted in the medium term [12]. - **Lithium carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate increased significantly on Thursday. Supply disruptions and policy sentiment support the price, which is expected to be oscillating strongly [13]. - **Industrial silicon**: The price of industrial silicon decreased slightly on Thursday. The "anti - involution" sentiment has an impact, and the price is expected to be oscillating strongly [14]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of polysilicon increased significantly on Thursday. The margin requirements have been adjusted. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly [15]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil**: The EU and the US are close to a tariff agreement, but the resumption of Chevron's production in Venezuela may increase supply. The oil price is expected to be bearish in the long term and oscillate in the short term [16]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt is stable after a correction. The inventory de - stocking has stagnated, and the demand in the peak season is average. The price is expected to follow the crude oil price in the short term, with limited upward space [16]. - **PX**: The support from the previous strong resonance of the sector has weakened. PX is in a tight supply situation, and the price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [17]. - **PTA**: The PTA price has increased, but the spot drive is weak. The demand is in the off - season, and the processing fee is low. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [17]. - **Ethylene glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol has increased. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [18]. - **Short - fiber**: The price of short - fiber has increased driven by the crude oil price and sector resonance. The terminal orders are average, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the medium term [18]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol has increased. The inventory has decreased, but the long - term supply pressure is large. The price is expected to be strong in the short term but limited in the long term [19]. - **PP**: The price of PP has adjusted slightly. The policy expectation is positive, but the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is under pressure in the long term [20]. - **PL**: The price of propylene is stable. The supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [20]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE has adjusted. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price may rebound in the short term but has a downward trend in the long term [21]. - **Urea**: The price of urea is in a stalemate. The demand is weakening, and the supply is abundant. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [22][23]. Agricultural Products - **US soybeans**: The overnight CBOT November soybean price increased. The US soybean export sales were lower than expected [24]. - **Soybean and rapeseed meal**: The soybean meal is expected to be strong in the short term and may correct significantly in mid - to - late August. The cost - driven force is not strong, and the futures price increase is limited [24]. - **Soybean and rapeseed oil**: The inventory pressure of soybean oil is high, and the demand is weak. The palm oil is the dominant factor in the soybean and rapeseed oil market. The soybean - palm oil price difference may increase [25]. - **Palm oil**: The palm oil market is in a short - term bull market, but the upward resistance is increasing. The inventory is increasing, and the selling pressure may increase [25]. - **Pigs**: The pig supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year, and the price increase is limited. The futures contract profit is high, and it is a suitable time for selling hedging [26]. - **Corn**: Corn is in the supply - demand off - season from late July to August. The price is expected to oscillate narrowly. The weather may affect the price in mid - to - late September [26][27]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views Financial Futures - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to remain stable and move forward (weaker) this week. The Fed's independence is under "stress test", and the overall weak trend is expected to continue. The PBOC will likely adhere to the regulatory philosophy of "bottom - line thinking + contingency", and the probability of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate falling below 7 is increasing [2] - The stock index is expected to continue to be strong as market sentiment remains optimistic. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes are relatively strong, and the trading volume of the two markets remains at a high level. The news is dull, and the long - position is recommended to hold and wait [3] - The freight rate of container shipping (European line) futures may continue to be volatile. The prices of mainstream shipping companies in August are still higher than those in July, and the reduction of US - EU tariffs is expected to boost trade, but the near - month contracts may fall again [5] Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver are under pressure in the short term as equity assets perform well. In the medium - to - long - term, they may be bullish, but there is short - term adjustment pressure. The callback buying strategy is recommended [6][8] Copper - Copper may be slightly stronger in the short term but may fall in the medium term. The rise of the non - ferrous metal sector is due to demand rather than supply, but there are hidden risks in the medium - term rise [10] Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. Macro - level factors boost sentiment, and low inventory supports prices [12] - Alumina may fluctuate in the short term. The current supply is in surplus, but the spot is tight, and it may fall sharply when there is negative news [13][14] - Cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate at a high level. The cost is supported, but the demand is in the off - season, and there are opportunities for arbitrage [14] Zinc - Zinc is expected to fluctuate widely and may fall in the long term. The supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak in the off - season [15] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to continue to fluctuate. The supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose, and the demand for stainless steel is weak [16] Tin - Tin has strengthened slightly, and there are opportunities to sell on rallies. The supply of Burmese ore is about to increase, and the upward pressure on prices is greater than the support [18] Carbonate Lithium - The futures market of carbonate lithium is active, but risks should be noted. The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain is stable, and the cost is supported [19] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures are volatile, and investors should pay attention to position risks. The market sentiment is strong, but there are risks on both the supply and demand sides [20][21] Lead - Lead is expected to fluctuate before the demand improves. The supply is tight, and the demand is approaching the peak season, but the spot trading is in a wait - and - see state [22] Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to continue to rise. The "anti - involution" policy boosts market sentiment, and the supply - demand contradiction of steel has not accumulated, and the profit of steel mills is good [24] Iron Ore - Iron ore is expected to be strong but with limited upward momentum. The "anti - involution" policy has little impact on the supply side, and the current valuation is high [26][27] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke are easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. The "anti - involution" policy in the coal industry drives the price increase, and the inventory of the upstream decreases. In the long term, the price increase may affect the downstream [29][30] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to be optimistic in the short term. The profit of ferroalloys is repaired, and the demand from steel mills is supported, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant [31][32] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil is in a narrow - range shock adjustment phase. The demand in the peak season provides support, but the support is weakening. Next week's macro - level meetings may bring new guidance [36] PTA - PX - PX - PTA is expected to be strong in the short term. The current fundamental driving force is limited, and the "anti - involution" policy boosts sentiment. The follow - up should focus on the Politburo meeting [39] MEG - Bottle Chip - MEG is expected to be strong. The supply side has many unexpected situations, and the "anti - involution" policy boosts sentiment. The bottle chip price fluctuates with the cost [42] Methanol - It is recommended to wait and see for methanol. The market is affected by macro - level factors, and the inventory is accumulating in the off - season. The focus is on whether the coastal MTO will shut down for maintenance [44] PP - PP is driven up by macro - level sentiment but faces resistance. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season, and the follow - up should focus on the demand recovery and policy progress [46] PE - PE is driven up by macro - level factors, and the spot is weak. The current inventory is accumulating, but the supply increment is limited, and the demand is expected to recover in the peak season [48] PVC - PVC is affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment. The current data is poor, but the "anti - involution" value is high. It is recommended to avoid risks when the production limit is unclear [50] Pure Benzene - Pure benzene is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The supply side fluctuates slightly, the demand side improves, and the inventory increases. The market is affected by the macro - level sentiment before the end - of - month meeting [51] Styrene - Styrene is affected by macro - level disturbances. The supply side decreases slightly, the demand side is weak, and the inventory increases. It is recommended to avoid short - selling in the short term and focus on the end - of - month meetings [52] Fuel Oil - Fuel oil is boosted by crude oil. The supply is tight, the demand is improving, and there are opportunities for the FU09 - 01 spread [53][54] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil is boosted by crude oil. The supply is low, the demand is slightly improved, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [54] Asphalt - Asphalt fluctuates with the cost. The supply - demand is stable, the inventory is being reduced, and the demand is expected to improve in the peak season. It is affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment in the short term [55] Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash and glass remain strong. The "anti - involution" policy has an uncertain impact on soda ash, and the supply is stable, but the demand is weak. Glass is in a weak balance, and the inventory is still high [56][58] Log - Logs are expected to have low - volatility shocks. The fundamentals change little, the funds are reducing positions, and the valuation is slightly high [59] Pulp - Pulp is mainly driven by the macro - level. After breaking through and retesting, it can be cautiously chased to go long [60] Caustic Soda - Caustic soda rises with the market. The short - term contradiction is limited, and the supply pressure may increase in the long term. The market is affected by the old - device issue [62] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Live pigs are recommended to be shorted on rallies. The supply is high, and the demand is weak in the short term, but there is pressure - holding sentiment in the market [63] Oilseeds - It is recommended to go long on the far - month contracts of oilseeds at low prices. The external market of soybeans is volatile, and the internal market is affected by the policy. The supply of domestic soybeans is sufficient, and the demand for rapeseed meal is affected by the situation of India and other countries [64][65] Corn and Starch - Corn and starch are expected to fluctuate. There is no obvious positive news, and the growth of new - crop corn should be monitored [66] Cotton - Cotton is expected to be strong in the short term. The low inventory supports the price, but the terminal demand is weak in the off - season. The follow - up should focus on the import quota policy and inventory reduction [68] Sugar - Sugar maintains an internal - strong and external - weak pattern. The international sugar price rises due to improved demand, and the domestic sugar price is stronger than the external market [69] Eggs - Eggs are recommended to be in an anti - spread position. The long - term egg production capacity is loose, and the short - term price is strong [71] Summaries by Directory Financial Futures RMB Exchange Rate - Yesterday, the on - shore RMB/USD closed at 7.1547, up 63 basis points, and the central parity rate was 7.1385, up 29 basis points. The Fed's independence is under test, and the PBOC will balance exchange - rate flexibility and risk prevention [1][2] Stock Index - Yesterday, the stock index rose collectively. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes reached new highs this year. The news is dull, and the market sentiment is optimistic, so it is expected to be strong [3] Container Shipping - The prices of container shipping (European line) futures fluctuated widely yesterday. The spot price of some shipping companies increased in August, and the reduction of US - EU tariffs is expected to boost the market [3][5] Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices fell on Thursday. The Fed's "renovation gate" and the European Central Bank's interest - rate decision affected the market. The long - term trend may be bullish, but there is short - term adjustment pressure [6] Copper - The Shanghai copper index fluctuated at a high level on Thursday. The development of emerging industries and the "anti - involution" policy may affect demand. Copper may be slightly stronger in the short term but may fall in the medium term [9][10] Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum prices fluctuated on Thursday. The "anti - involution" policy has limited impact on the fundamentals but boosts sentiment. The inventory is low, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [12] - Alumina prices rose slightly. The supply is in surplus, but the spot is tight. The price may be affected by macro - level sentiment and inventory [13][14] - The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated. The cost is supported, but the demand is in the off - season, and there are arbitrage opportunities [14] Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract closed slightly higher on Thursday. The supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to short on rallies [15] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The prices of nickel and stainless steel rose slightly on Thursday. The supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose, and the demand for stainless steel is weak. The follow - up should focus on the support of nickel - iron [16] Tin - The Shanghai tin index rose slightly on Thursday. The fundamentals are stable. The supply of Burmese ore is about to increase, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [18] Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium futures limit - up on Thursday. The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain is stable, and the cost is supported. The market is active, but risks should be noted [19] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The industrial silicon futures rose on Thursday, and the polysilicon futures fluctuated at a high level. The spot price of industrial silicon is strong, and the polysilicon price is stable. The market sentiment is strong, but risks should be noted [20][21] Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract closed slightly higher on Thursday. The supply is tight, and the demand is approaching the peak season, but the spot trading is in a wait - and - see state. It is expected to fluctuate [22] Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a strong - shock state. The "anti - involution" policy boosts sentiment, and the supply - demand contradiction of steel has not accumulated, and the profit of steel mills is good [24] Iron Ore - The iron ore market is affected by the "anti - involution" policy. The supply side has little impact, and the current valuation is high. It is expected to be strong but with limited upward momentum [26][27] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke prices rose sharply. The "anti - involution" policy in the coal industry drives the price increase, and the inventory of the upstream decreases. The short - term is easy to rise, and the long - term should consider the downstream [29][30] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to be optimistic in the short term. The profit of ferroalloys is repaired, and the demand from steel mills is supported, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant [31][32] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rose slightly on Thursday. The US government may authorize Venezuelan oil partners, and the demand in the peak season provides support. It is in a narrow - range shock adjustment phase [34][36] PTA - PX - PX - PTA prices rose slightly. The PX load decreased slightly, and the PTA supply is stable. The demand for polyester is weak, and the market is expected to be strong in the short term [37][38][39] MEG - Bottle Chip - MEG prices are volatile. The supply side has many unexpected situations, and the demand is weak. The bottle chip price fluctuates with the cost [40][42] Methanol - Methanol prices are affected by macro - level factors. The inventory is accumulating in the off - season, and the focus is on whether the coastal MTO will shut down for maintenance [43][44] PP - PP prices rose. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season. The macro - level sentiment drives the price up, but there is resistance [45][46] PE - PE prices rose. The supply increment is limited, and the demand is expected to recover in the peak season. The current inventory is accumulating, and the spot is weak [47][48] PVC - PVC prices rose sharply. The "anti - involution" sentiment drives the price up, and the current data is poor, but the "anti - involution" value is high [49][50] Pure Benzene - Pure benzene prices rose. The supply side fluctuates slightly, the demand side improves, and the inventory increases. The market is affected by the macro - level sentiment [51] Styrene - Styrene prices rose. The supply side decreases slightly, the demand side is weak, and the inventory increases. The short - term is affected by macro - level disturbances [52] Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices rose. The supply is tight, the demand is improving, and there are opportunities for the FU09 - 01 spread [53][54] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil prices rose. The supply is low, the demand is slightly improved, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [54] Asphalt - Asphalt prices fluctuated. The supply - demand is stable, the inventory is being reduced, and the demand is expected to improve in the peak season. The short - term is affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment [54][55] Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash prices rose. The "anti - involution" policy has an uncertain impact, the supply is stable, and the demand is weak. The inventory is high [56][57] - Glass prices rose. The supply is stable, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory is high. The short - term is strong, and the follow - up should focus on the policy and inventory [58] Log - Log prices fell slightly. The fundamentals change little, the funds are reducing positions, and the valuation is slightly high. It is expected to have low - volatility shocks [59] Pulp - Pulp prices rose. The spot price is stable, and the futures price is mainly driven by the macro - level. After breaking through and retesting, it can be cautiously chased to go long [60] Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices rose. The short - term contradiction is limited, and the supply pressure may increase in the long term. The market is affected by the old - device issue [62] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Live pig prices fell. The supply is high, and the demand is weak in the short term, but there is pressure - holding sentiment in the market. It is recommended to be short on rallies [63] Oilseeds - The external market of soybeans is volatile, and the internal market is affected by the policy. The supply of domestic soybeans is sufficient, and the demand for rapeseed meal is affected by the situation