前下游采购乏力，库存消化速度减缓，部分厂家面临较大的出货难题 。技术面上冲高回路，但成交量并未 下滑，高位换手，情绪面并没有打破，短期未能冲破20日均线压力位，后续预计还有部分上行动能，但是 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 警惕上方41000高压位置，操作上建议，多晶硅暂时观望 免责声明 多晶硅产业日报 2025-05-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 38420 | 150 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 44692 | -7560 | | | 06-07月合约价差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 1240 | -490 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | 29930 | -110 | | 现货市场 | 品种现货价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 40500 | 0 多晶硅(菜花料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 30.5 | 0 | | | 基差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market remains weak with an imbalance between supply and demand, lacking positive price drivers in the short - term. It is expected to maintain a volatile and weak consolidation, with a trading range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton, and a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended. The polysilicon market shows both supply and demand weakness, and it will take time to relieve inventory pressure. The price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations, and cautious operation is advised [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon 3.1.1 Cost and Profit - As the southwest production area enters the flat - rate period, the power cost will decline. After high - cost northern enterprises shut down, the overall in - production cost of the industry will decrease, but the cost side provides insufficient support for silicon prices [2]. - In April, the average profit of national industrial silicon 553 was - 2,001 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 290 yuan/ton; the average profit of 421 was - 2,085 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 83 yuan/ton [37]. 3.1.2 Supply - Northern supply continues to decline, while the southwest production area is gradually starting furnaces. In Sichuan, the power price in the flat - rate period has decreased, leading to an increase in operation. The power price in the wet season is expected to decline compared to last year, and there are plans to add more silicon furnaces. In Yunnan, the negotiation of preferential power prices for the wet season is ongoing. Some enterprises have low willingness to start production due to unprofitable power costs, and the mainstream start - up time is expected to be around the end of June [2]. - In the week of May 8th, the overall start - up of silicon enterprises decreased slightly, with the number of operating furnaces decreasing by 1. The overall start - up of industrial silicon was stable, showing a pattern of increase in the south and decrease in the north [38][39]. 3.1.3 Demand - Downstream demand is weak, market transactions are low, and most are low - price transactions. Polysilicon plants maintain large - scale production cuts; the organic silicon industry maintains reduced production; the demand for silicon - aluminum alloy has weakened, and it purchases industrial silicon based on rigid demand [2]. 3.1.4 Inventory - Social inventory remains at a high level, and there is significant short - term inventory reduction pressure. As of May 8th, the social inventory of industrial silicon (warehouse inventory + delivery warehouse) was 59.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.70 tons; the total factory inventory of Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 26.49 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38 tons [2][114]. 3.1.5 Price - The spot transaction price continues to decline. As of May 9th, compared with April 30th, the prices of various types of industrial silicon in different regions have decreased to varying degrees [8]. 3.2 Polysilicon 3.2.1 Supply - The industry's self - disciplined production cuts continue. In April, the polysilicon output was 9.54 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 8.58 tons. In May, some silicon material plants will have new production capacity, but many enterprises also have production cut arrangements. It is expected that the production in May will decline to around 9 tons [63][64]. 3.2.2 Demand - Downstream purchasing willingness is low, and the mentality of bargaining is obvious. The long - term component orders have significantly decreased, the price of photovoltaic components has continued to decline, and the demand for battery cells from the component side has decreased [2]. 3.2.3 Inventory - As of May 8th, the polysilicon inventory was 25.7 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons [64]. 3.2.4 Price - As of May 9th, compared with April 30th, the prices of N - type materials, re - feeding materials, dense materials, and cauliflower materials remained unchanged [8]. 3.3 Organic Silicon 3.3.1 Supply - In April, the operating rate of China's DMC was 58.58%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.11 percentage points, and the output was 17.28 tons, a month - on - month decline. Although the operating rate rebounded slightly last week, it is expected to continue to decline in May, and the subsequent operating load may be further reduced to around 55% [85]. 3.3.2 Price - Organic silicon prices have continued to decline. As of May 9th, the average price of DMC was 11,550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.43%; the average price of 107 glue was 12,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.81%; the average price of silicone oil was 14,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.04% [91]. 3.4 Silicon - Aluminum Alloy 3.4.1 Supply - In the week of May 8th, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 55.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 55%, a month - on - month increase of 2.5 percentage points [100]. 3.4.2 Price - Aluminum alloy prices have decreased. As of May 8th, the average price of ADC12 was 20,300 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.98%; the average price of A356 was 20,050 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.20% [103].

Group 1 - Daqian Energy's stock closed at 21.11 yuan, with a decline of 5.12%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 45.285 billion yuan [1] - The company was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board on July 22, 2021, with an initial public offering (IPO) of 300 million shares at a price of 21.49 yuan per share [1] - The total funds raised from the IPO amounted to 644.7 million yuan, with a net amount of 606.719 million yuan, exceeding the original plan by 106.719 million yuan [1] Group 2 - In 2022, Daqian Energy issued A-shares to specific investors, raising a total of approximately 10.999 billion yuan at a price of 51.79 yuan per share [2] - The net amount raised from this issuance, after deducting issuance costs, was approximately 10.937 billion yuan, which was fully utilized by the end of 2022 [2] - The stock price is currently below the issuance price [2] Group 3 - Daqian Energy's total fundraising from both IPO and subsequent issuance amounts to 17.447 billion yuan [3] - For the year 2023, the company reported a revenue of approximately 741.052 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 54.62%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -271.813 million yuan [3] - In the first quarter of 2025, the company reported a revenue of approximately 90.725 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 69.57%, with a net profit of -55.802 million yuan [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of the industrial silicon industry are weak. Although there has been some production reduction on the supply side, the approaching wet season in the southwest region is expected to increase supply. The falling prices of silicon coal and electricity during the wet season have weakened cost support. On the consumption side, performance is weak, with the possibility of further production cuts [2]. - The futures market for polysilicon has been volatile recently. Downstream production scheduling has decreased month-on-month. News of joint production cuts by silicon material factories has had a significant impact on the market. Attention should be paid to changes in the number of warehouse receipts and the impact of position reduction on the market [6]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On May 13, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2506 opened at 8,320 yuan/ton and closed at 8,230 yuan/ton, a change of -50 yuan/ton (-0.60%) from the previous settlement. As of the close, the main contract 2505 had a position of 162,299 lots, and on May 14, 2025, the total number of warehouse receipts was 66,494 lots, a change of -603 lots from the previous day [1]. - Industrial silicon spot prices remained stable. According to SMM data, the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in East China was 9,000 - 9,200 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,700 - 10,300 yuan/ton; the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 8,200 - 8,400 yuan/ton; and 99 silicon was 8,200 - 8,400 yuan/ton. In recent days, downstream alloy users have placed orders, and some traders reported improved trading volumes compared to last week. Sellers' quotes remained stable, but downstream users still had a tendency to bargain [1]. - According to SMM statistics, the quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 11,300 - 11,600 yuan/ton. Domestic organic silicon DMC enterprises maintained stable quotes, with local transaction prices slightly decreasing. The overall transaction range was 11,300 - 11,600 yuan/ton, but market transaction expectations were not strong. Downstream enterprises mainly replenished inventory as needed. It is expected that after May 20, downstream enterprises' raw material inventories will be depleted, which may drive market trading volumes [1]. Polysilicon - On May 13, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2507 rose significantly and then declined. It opened at 38,230 yuan/ton and closed at 38,270 yuan/ton, a 0.91% change from the previous trading day. The main contract had a position of 52,252 lots (69,417 lots the previous day) and a trading volume of 321,982 lots [4]. - Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the quoted price of polysilicon reclaimed material was 35.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg; dense polysilicon was 34.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg; cauliflower polysilicon was 31.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg; granular silicon was 33.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg; N-type material was 37.00 - 44.00 yuan/kg; and N-type granular silicon was 35.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventories decreased, as did silicon wafer inventories. The latest statistics showed polysilicon inventory at 25.70 (a month-on-month change of -1.90%), silicon wafer inventory at 18.13GW (a month-on-month change of -12.08%), weekly polysilicon production at 21,400.00 tons (a month-on-month change of -4.46%), and silicon wafer production at 12.35GW (a month-on-month change of -7.07%) [4][5]. - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N-type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.98 yuan/piece, N-type 210mm was 1.30 yuan/piece, and N-type 210R silicon wafers were 1.10 yuan/piece. For battery cells, the price of high-efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.29 yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W; Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.27 yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.28 yuan/W; Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.27 yuan/W; and HJT210 half-cell batteries were 0.37 yuan/W. For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N-type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.70 yuan/W, and N-type 210mm was 0.69 - 0.70 yuan/W [5]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. Upstream enterprises should sell on rallies for hedging [3]. - Inter - delivery spread: None [3]. - Cross - variety: None [3]. - Spot - futures: None [3]. - Options: None [3]. Polysilicon - Unilateral: Be cautiously bullish on the 2506 contract [7]. - Inter - delivery spread: None [7]. - Cross - variety: None [7]. - Spot - futures: None [7]. - Options: None [7].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: May 14, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook - Market Performance: The polysilicon 06 contract was strong first and then weak. The PS2506 closed at 38,270 yuan/ton, up 0.91%, with a trading volume of 322,000 lots and an open interest of 52,252 lots, a net decrease of 17,165 lots [4] - Future Outlook: Short - term trends are bullish. The shortage of near - month delivery products and the far - month production cut logic boost the preference of long - position funds. However, the upward resistance is increasing. The key trading range is 38,000 - 40,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: Monthly silicon material supply is maintained at 90,000 - 100,000 tons. There may be an increase in production during the wet season. If far - month production is cut by more than 10%, the spot market is expected to enter the destocking stage [4] - Demand: The "rush installation" of downstream photovoltaic terminals is coming to an end, and demand has decreased significantly month - on - month. Polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells have been accumulating inventory for 5 consecutive weeks [4] Group 4: Market News - As of May 14, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 20 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - There were rumors that the top six silicon material manufacturers planned to acquire the remaining silicon material production capacity, and a leading manufacturer proposed a production cut to support prices, but the feasibility of the plan is unknown [5] - Relevant enterprise executives and investor hotlines denied the "silicon material storage plan" rumor and mentioned the current supply - demand game situation of silicon material production capacity [5]

Report Overview - Report Name: Polysilicon Industry Daily Report 2025-05-13 [2] - Researcher: Wang Fuhui [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon market price is temporarily stable, but the supply has significantly declined due to over half of the enterprises in the industry conducting equipment maintenance, especially in Xinjiang and Mongolia [3]. - The downstream demand for polysilicon is weak, with strong wait - and - see sentiment among wafer - pulling enterprises and low procurement willingness. Downstream enterprises expect the silicon material price to fall in the long term and plan to replenish inventory after the price stabilizes [3]. - The polysilicon industry still faces high inventory pressure, mainly concentrated in polysilicon manufacturers. Weak downstream procurement has slowed down inventory digestion, and some manufacturers face difficulties in shipping [3]. - Technically, it has broken through the pressure of the 60 - day moving average, and there may be high pressure around the integer mark of 40,000. It is recommended to adopt a high - short strategy [3] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 38,270 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton; the main position volume is 52,252 lots, down 15,252 lots [3]. - The price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts of polysilicon is 1,730 yuan/ton, down 575 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 30,040 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton [3] 2. Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 40,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon is 30.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - type polysilicon is 33.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of re - feeding polysilicon is 35 yuan/kg, unchanged [3]. - The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.34 US dollars/kg, down 0.05 US dollars/kg; the basis of polysilicon is 2,050 yuan/ton, down 620 yuan/ton [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,230 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [3]. - The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons [3]. - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 335,750 tons, up 46,400 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 596,000 tons, down 7,000 tons [3] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 97,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 2,906 tons, down 222 tons [3]. - The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 5.28 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price of polysilicon is 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars/ton [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 78.444 million kilowatts, up 11.443 million kilowatts [3]. - The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 95,373,120 pieces, up 24,038,530 pieces; the monthly import volume is 9,846,120 pieces, down 2,122,260 pieces; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.27 US dollars/piece, up 0.01 US dollars/piece [3]. - The comprehensive price index (SPI) of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 22.91, down 0.62 [3] 6. Industry News - As of May 13, the mainstream market price of P - type cauliflower - type polysilicon is 32 yuan/kg, the mainstream market price of N - type dense - type polysilicon is 35.5 yuan/kg, the mainstream market price of N - type re - feeding polysilicon is 39 yuan/kg, and the mainstream market price of N - type granular silicon is 37 yuan/kg, all of which are temporarily stable [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce held a round - table meeting for foreign - trade enterprises to relieve difficulties and provide more support [3] 7. Key Focus - There is no news today [3]

多晶硅行业基本面有望好转，多个合约逼近涨停 金十期货5月13日讯，13日，多晶硅期货合约PS2508-2511在开盘小幅下跌快速震荡上行，一度逼近涨 停。多晶硅期货在经历了前期的大幅下跌后，企业开始自救，多晶硅行业基本面有望好转，期货价格快 速上行。一方面，远月合约的绝对价格在上涨前低至35000元/吨以下，较现货价格有较大贴水；另一方 面，多晶硅行业基本面有供应端收缩的预期，预计影响时间在三季度之后，因此远月合约涨幅较大。逐 步进入5月中旬，6月即将迎来首次交割，但仓单依旧较少，且在价格较低的情况下，有20手仓单注销， 情况逐步有利于多头。预计期货价格主要波动区间"36000-42000元/吨"，多单可以持有。 （广发期货） ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For industrial silicon, the spot price is weakly stable, and the futures market rebounds after a decline, mainly influenced by macro - sentiment. The supply side has cost pressure and some production cuts, but raw material prices are falling. The demand side is weak, and the cost support is further weakened. The total industry inventory and warehouse receipt pressure are relatively high [1][2]. - For polysilicon, the futures market continues to repair upward, and the spot market price stabilizes with some increases. Under the background of industry self - restricted production, polysilicon production remains low, inventory is falling, and there is a possibility of further production cuts. The demand side also shows signs of weakness, and the number of warehouse receipts is low [3][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis**: On May 12, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rebounded after a decline. The main contract 2506 opened at 8275 yuan/ton and closed at 8320 yuan/ton, a change of 0.24% from the previous settlement. The main contract 2505 had a position of 171,625 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts on May 12 was 67,097 lots, a decrease of 241 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon is weakly stable. The prices of various grades of silicon have decreased. The silicon coal prices in major production areas such as Xinjiang, Gansu, Ningxia, and Shaanxi have dropped, weakening the cost support [1]. - **Consumption Side**: The organic silicon DMC quotation is 11,300 - 11,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The recent trading volume is average, and manufacturers have high inventory pressure, so they lower the price to accept orders [2]. - **Strategy**: For industrial silicon, the strategy is mainly range - bound operation, and upstream enterprises can sell hedging at high prices [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Data**: On May 12, 2025, the main contract 2506 of polysilicon futures continued to repair upward, opening at 38,100 yuan/ton and closing at 38,450 yuan/ton, a 2.49% increase from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 69,417 lots, and the trading volume was 322,808 lots [3]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of polysilicon is stable. The prices of various types of polysilicon remain unchanged. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers has decreased, and the weekly production of polysilicon and silicon wafers has also declined [5]. - **Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components**: The prices of different types of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are provided, and most of them remain stable [5][6]. - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, under industry self - restriction, polysilicon production remains low, and inventory is falling. On the demand side, the battery production rate and total output of Chinese enterprises in April and May are given, and some photovoltaic component enterprises have plans to further reduce production [7]. - **Strategy**: For polysilicon, the short - term strategy for the 2506 contract is to be cautiously bullish [8].

多晶硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 05 月 13 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） ...

银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 5 月 12 日星期一 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：上周五受贸易进展不确定性和地缘冲突的影响伦敦金下破 3280 美元后 | | 研究员：王伟 | 持续反弹，最终收涨 0.63%，报 3326.46 美元/盎司。但周末中美经贸高层宣布会谈取得 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 了实质性进展，伦敦金今晨跳空低开；现货白银周五收涨 0.84%，报 32.72 美元/盎司。 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 受外盘驱动，沪金主力合约收涨 0.33%，报 790.74 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 0.88%， | | 报 | 8221 元/千克。 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 2.美元指数：美元指数回吐前日部分涨幅，收跌 0.3%，报 100.339。 | | 期货从业证号：F03110758 ...