来源：华夏时报 国内成品油价格开启2026年第二轮上涨。 2月3日下午，国家发改委发布公告称，近期国际市场油价波动上升，根据2月3日的前10个工作日平均价 格与上次调价前10个工作日平均价格对比情况，按照现行成品油价格机制，自2月3日24时起，国内汽、 柴油价格每吨分别上涨205元和195元。 对于下一轮国内成品油调价预期，金联创成品油分析师王延婷告诉《华夏时报》记者，新一轮计价周期 首个工作日，变化率幅度将在-0.4%，对应汽柴油下调幅度在20元/吨附近。若后期地缘局势趋于缓和， 国际原油价格存下行空间，新一轮零售价下调概率较大。 成品油二连涨 新一轮油价调整窗口，国内成品油价格迎来二连涨。 隆众资讯成品油分析师徐雯雯告诉记者，本轮调价后，全国大多数地区车柴价格6.6—6.8元/升，92号汽 油零售限价在6.9—7.0元/升。 地缘冲突扰动 近期两周左右时间，原油价格持续走高，以美原油为例，最低处于55美元/桶，最高涨到66美元/桶，上 涨幅度超过10美元/桶；布伦特原油期货价格更是自2025年9月份以来首次突破70美元/桶。 国际原油价格上涨的主要原因之一，便是美国对伊朗部署军队和航母等，加大了地区的紧张 ...

燃料油日报 | 2026-02-05 站在品种自身基本面的角度来看，高硫燃料油当前基本面偏强，亚太地区现货边际收紧，市场结构较为坚挺。且 由于高硫燃料油是伊朗的主要出口产品之一，因此对于伊朗局势的风险敞口较大。此外，在委内瑞拉原油供应减 少后，国内沥青炼厂开始寻找替代原料，伊朗原油和燃料油是潜在选项，高硫燃料油需求存在一定增量预期。低 硫燃料油当前基本面矛盾不明显，市场压力有限，因此主要跟随原油端波动。 策略 高硫方面：中性，关注伊朗局势走向 低硫方面：中性，关注伊朗局势走向 跨品种：无 跨期：逢低多FU2603/2605价差（正套） 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、制裁风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产幅度不及预期、船燃需 求超预期 伊朗局势仍不明朗，炼厂端需求增量可期 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨3.98%，报2797元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨3.39%，报3268 元/吨。 近期能源板块波动受到伊朗局势影响较大。周初伊朗与美国计划开展谈判的消息一度导致油价大幅回撤。昨日局 势再度出现波折，伊朗无人机被美军击落，市场担忧情绪再度升温，原油地 ...

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

记者丨曾静娇 周蕊 编辑丨江佩霞 2月5日上午，黄金白银盘中跳水，截至北京时间10:20左右， 现货白银失守83美元/盎司，日内 重挫逾7%； 现货黄金跌近1.2%， 现报4909.67美元/盎司， 日内最低跌至4893美元， 早盘 一 度重上5000美元 。 A股跌幅扩大，钧达股份跌停，光伏股全线下跌 日韩科技电子股大跌，软银跌4%，SK海力士跌近5% 21君荐读 据新华财经报道，特朗普在一场采访中表示， 他毫无怀疑利率 "很快就会下调"。 当被追问为 何如此笃定，他回答道："我只是觉得利率会下调。我的意思是，利率本就应该更低。" 另据央视新闻报道， 伊朗和美国4日分别证实，定于6日在阿曼首都马斯喀特举行核问题谈 判。此前，美国政府一度正式告知伊朗，拒绝伊方3日提出的更改会谈地点与形式的要求。伊 朗指责美方泄露取消谈判的消息表明其缺乏诚意。而为避免美伊谈判破裂，中东地区至少有九 个国家通过最高级别渠道联系白宫，强烈敦促美国不要取消会谈。 纽约商品交易所委员会主席威廉·普普拉分析指出， 白银波动被放大，主要是投机资金主导。 白银很容易吸引短线资金，尤其是在行情后段。当这些资金开始撤离时，价格波动往往非常剧 烈 ...

特朗普发帖称，印度总理莫迪在与特朗普的通话中，同意停止购买俄罗斯石油，并大幅增加从美国以及可能从委内瑞拉购买的石油（另有消息称莫迪同意 增加对美投资500亿美元），"这将有助于结束目前正在进行的乌克兰战争，每周都有成千上万人在这场战争里丧生。" 而作为回报，美国将把对印度的关税从目前的25%降低到18%，印度也将对等降低对美关税并清除非关税贸易壁垒，同时还会购买超过5000亿美元的美国 商品，包括能源、农产品和技术等。 自2022年战争爆发以来，印度一直都是俄罗斯石油的最大客户之一，这倒与政治没什么关系，纯粹是商业因素，俄罗斯石油价格太便宜了，尤其是最近这 段时间，因为乌克兰频繁打击俄罗斯炼油厂等设施，滞留在海上的俄罗斯石油数量不断增加，印度抓住有利时机大量吃进。 截至撰文时，我都没有看到印度政府发布公开声明表示不会再购买俄罗斯石油，而在俄罗斯国内，则依然抱有希望，诸如俄罗斯政府下属金融大学和俄国 家能源安全基金专家伊戈尔·尤什科夫就告诉俄罗斯新闻网站NEWS.ru，印度不会弃购俄罗斯石油，因为俄罗斯石油对印度而言是"市场上最具成本效益的 选择"，换句话说，就是俄罗斯石油最便宜。 评论：暂且不谈印度近期与欧盟 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年02月05日 (原油) 夜间交易时段国际油价上涨。伊朗方面此前传出谈判取消的消息，随后伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐澄清 指出，伊朗与美国将于6日上午10时左右在阿曼首都马斯喀特举行会谈。EIA数据显示，受冬季风暴 影响，上周美国原油库存超预期大幅下降，产量亦降至2024年11月以来最低水平。目前美伊谈判前 景仍存在较多不确定性,但整体冲突局势仍属可控,预计对原油价格的影响更多是阶段性与间歇性 的，难以形成趋势性转变。全球石油市场累积的压力依然显著。在多空因素交织的背景下，预计油 价将延续波动加剧的态势。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属震荡,波动依然较大。美国经济数据喜忧参半,1月ADP就业人数增加2.2万人低于预期 的4.8万人，不过ISM非制造业PM153.8与此前公布的制造业PMI均体现经济韧性，市场关注的非农就 业将推迟到下周发布。短期资金博弈激烈，贵金属进入高位盘整阶段，暂时观望等待波动率下降。 国投期货研究院 【铜】 隔夜铜价高位震荡，沪铜减仓，市场关注潜在储备与春节前后国内供求变动。倾向正向价差强化能 形成天然仓单储备。更关注跨期反套。 ...

新华社符拉迪沃斯托克2月5日电 据俄罗斯卫星通讯社5日报道，俄驻古巴大使维克托·科罗内利在接受卫 星通讯社采访时表示，俄罗斯将继续向古巴供应石油。 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - Geopolitical risks continue to drive up oil prices, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Directory International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI March crude oil futures rose $1.93, or 3.05%, to settle at $65.14 per barrel; ICE Brent crude futures contract 04 rose $2.13, or 3.16%, to settle at $69.46 per barrel; SC2603 crude oil futures rose $15.20, or 3.32%, to settle at $473.50 per barrel [1] European Market Crude Oil Arbitrage - The refining value difference and crude oil price difference slightly deteriorated for WTI MEH (cracking) and Arab Extra Light, with an arbitrage incentive of -$3.89 (closed) and a spread change of -0.34 [2] - The arbitrage window for WTI MEH (cracking) and Arab Light remained closed and stable, with an arbitrage incentive of -$5.00 (closed) and a spread change of -0.38 [2] - The economic efficiency of West African crude oil for WTI MEH (cracking) and Nemba did not significantly improve, with an arbitrage incentive of -$5.19 (closed) and a spread change of -0.19 [2] - The situation for Mars (coking) and Arab Heavy slightly improved, possibly due to the narrowing of the heavy crude oil discount, with an arbitrage incentive of -$3.38 (closed) and a spread change of 0.75 [2] - The arbitrage window for Mars (coking) and Vasconia marginally improved and remained open, with an arbitrage incentive of $0.07 (open) and a spread change of 0.19 [2] - The price disadvantage for Mars (coking) and Castilla narrowed, but the arbitrage remained closed, with an arbitrage incentive of -$2.42 (closed) and a spread change of 0.41 [2] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - The price disadvantage of North Sea crude oil for Bonny Light (cracking) and Forties widened, and the arbitrage window deepened and closed, with an arbitrage incentive of -$3.31 (closed) and a spread change of -0.38 [4] - The price advantage of Algerian crude oil for Bonny Light (cracking) and Saharan Blend significantly expanded, and the arbitrage space increased greatly, with an arbitrage incentive of $5.26 (open) and a spread change of 2.19 [4] - The price discount of Russian oil for Bonny Light (cracking) and Urals remained huge, and the arbitrage window remained at an extremely high level, with an arbitrage incentive of $24.43 (open) and a spread change of -1.21 [4] Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - The trans - Atlantic freight decreased or the spread widened for Forties (cracking) and WTI MEH, and the economic efficiency increased, with an arbitrage incentive of $2.07 (open) and a spread change of 0.87 [4] - Similar to the trend of WTI MEH, the arbitrage conditions for Forties (cracking) and Eagle Ford improved, with an arbitrage incentive of $2.32 (open) and a spread change of 0.78 [4] - The West African crude oil arbitrage window for Forties (cracking) and Bonny Light was stable with little change, with an arbitrage incentive of $3.63 (open) and a spread change of -0.01 [4] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Russian oil's dominant position for Urals (cracking) and Saharan Blend was stable, and the arbitrage window of other oil types remained closed, with an arbitrage incentive of -$22.31 (closed) and a spread change of 0.1 [5] - The spread slightly deteriorated for Urals (cracking) and Azeri Light, but the Russian oil - dominated pattern remained unchanged, with an arbitrage incentive of -$20.46 (closed) and a spread change of -0.28 [5] - The arbitrage conditions of West African oil for Urals (cracking) and Bonny Light marginally improved but were still uncompetitive, with an arbitrage incentive of -$22.54 (closed) and a spread change of 0.22 [5] Chinese Crude Oil Arbitrage - The competitive disadvantage of Murban relative to ESPO (cracking) further expanded, with an arbitrage incentive of -$15.13 (closed) and a spread change of -1.38 [6] - The arbitrage window for ESPO (cracking) and Bonny Light deepened and closed, lacking economic efficiency, with an arbitrage incentive of -$15.33 (closed) and a spread change of -0.79 [6] - North Sea crude oil for ESPO (cracking) and Forties maintained a deep disadvantage with little change, with an arbitrage incentive of -$22.20 (closed) and a spread change of -0.26 [6] Key Market News - An Iranian senior source said that the US leaking the news of canceling negotiations showed a lack of sincerity, and Iran would not accept negotiations on any issues other than the nuclear issue [6] - The Iranian foreign minister said that the Iran - US nuclear negotiations were scheduled to be held in Muscat, Oman, at around 10 am local time on Friday (2 pm Beijing time on the 6th). Affected by the repeated news, oil prices gave back half of the previous gains [6] - An Iranian official source said that the Iran - US negotiations originally scheduled for the 6th in Oman had been canceled due to new conditions imposed by the US and differences between the two sides on negotiation issues [6] - OPEC's crude oil production decreased last month. In January, OPEC's average daily oil production was 28.83 million barrels, a decrease of 230,000 barrels per day compared with the previous month. About one - third of the decline was caused by Venezuela [6] - The Trump administration said that the US had agreed to cooperate with Japan, Mexico, and the EU to jointly develop key mineral resources for industries such as defense [7] Trend Strength - The crude oil trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [8]

行业 原油日报 日期 2026 年 2 月 5 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1： | 行情回顾(美元/桶) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Oil Market - Oil prices saw a significant increase, with WTI March contract closing at $65.14 per barrel, up $1.93 (3.05%) [2][14] - Brent April contract closed at $69.46 per barrel, up $2.13 (3.16%) [2][14] - EIA reported a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventory by 3.5 million barrels to 420.3 million barrels, the lowest level since November 2024 [2][16] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil FU2603 rose by 3.98% to 2797 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil LU2604 increased by 3.39% to 3268 yuan/ton [3][17] - China's refining capacity utilization rate for reduced pressure was 68.05%, a slight increase of 0.01 percentage points from the previous week [3][17] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2603 increased by 1.69% to 3361 yuan/ton [5][18] - Social inventory rate for asphalt rose to 25.43%, up 0.64% week-on-week [5][18] Rubber - Shanghai rubber main contract RU2605 rose by 205 yuan/ton to 16385 yuan/ton [6][19] - Natural rubber social inventory in China increased by 0.9 million tons to 128.1 million tons, a 0.7% increase [6][19] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5218 yuan/ton, up 1.32%, while EG2605 closed at 3788 yuan/ton, up 0.56% [7][20] - PX futures closed at 7296 yuan/ton, up 1.25% [7][20] Methanol - Domestic methanol prices showed a mixed trend, with Taicang spot price at 2238 yuan/ton and Inner Mongolia at 1797.5 yuan/ton [8][21] - Supply is expected to decrease slightly in February, while demand may decline due to MTO unit repairs [8][21] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for East China polypropylene (PP) ranged from 6550 to 6750 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [9][22] - The market is expected to see an increase in inventory as the holiday approaches [9][22] PVC - PVC prices in East China showed a strong adjustment, with prices for calcium carbide method ranging from 4820 to 4900 yuan/ton [10][23] - The market is facing weak demand from the real estate sector, which may limit support for PVC downstream products [10][23] Urea - Urea futures closed at 1787 yuan/ton, up 0.56% day-on-day, with stable prices in the spot market [11][24] - Daily production of urea was reported at 21.03 million tons, with a slight increase expected due to the resumption of gas-based production [11][24] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures closed at 1229 yuan/ton, up 2.08%, with stable prices in the spot market [12][26] - The industry operating rate was reported at 82.37%, a decrease of 1.43 percentage points [12][26] Glass - Glass futures closed at 1109 yuan/ton, up 3.36%, with stable prices in the spot market [13][27] - Concerns about supply fluctuations are present as multiple production lines are planned for resumption [13][27]