5月港股以"科技领涨+全市场普涨"的强劲姿态迎来开门红，$港股科技50ETF(SZ159750)$今天盘中一度涨至2.8%，临近午间收盘成交额突破1亿，换手率超 18%，两融品种交投十分活跃。 从K线来看，恒生科技5月2日大阳线正好触及关税大跌缺口上沿，包括今日的震荡，表明在此处依然承压。 港股科技指数更强一些，2号大涨已经突破了大跌缺口上沿，今天盘中的下探也回踩了这一位置。 港股行情本质是"钱潮"驱动的估值修复行情。 可以看到两只指数午盘已经双双翻红，这个位置有阻力，但势头很猛，率先突破的港股科技指数后续弹性可能更大。 4月南向大幅涌入港股将近2000亿，今年已超6000亿元，差不多是去年同期的三倍，市场预计全年仍将突破万亿元。这说明内地资金很清楚：港股科技现在 还趴在估值洼地里。恒生科技市净率在近十年18%左右的历史分位，相当于过去十年里只有10%的时间比现在便宜。 不止南向，外资买港股买得也很猛，把港元都买贵了。今天上午，香港金管局在市场卖出605.43亿港元，因为港元汇价触及强方兑换保证。这是自2020年10 月28日以来，港元首次触发联系汇率机制下的强方兑换保证。 金管局表示，近期港元偏强主要由于股 ...

医药·掘金 年报一季报总结电话会议 20250504 摘要 • 医药行业在 2023 年和 2024 年面临增长放缓，预计营收增长率分别为 1%和-1%，利润增速分别为-20%和-13%，表明行业面临显著的下行压 力。 • 行业下滑的核心因素包括医保支付压力、行业秩序整顿、海外贸易不确定 性以及消费环境变化等多重因素叠加影响。 • 预计 2025 年医药板块将迎来反转，政策端已呈现缓和改善迹象，包括集 采优化、政府医保补助提升及商业医保目录扩容等积极因素。 • 医疗设备招标恢复、医疗反腐常态化以及中国创新药出海加速等因素，预 计将推动医药企业业绩改善，二三四季度业绩有望逐步好转。 • 投资策略上，重点关注创新药和左侧反转两大主线。创新药板块受益于高 景气度和对外授权，部分品种已在中国获批放量。 • 左侧反转领域，连锁药房（如益丰）、大型医疗服务公司及医疗设备招标 恢复预示着复苏机会，相关公司有望受益于基数降低带来的业绩提升。 • 建议关注科伦博泰生物、康方生物、信达生物、华东医药、石药集团等创 新药企，以及益丰连锁、人福医药、新产业生物、安图生物等左侧反转标 的。 Q&A 2024 年和 2025 年医药板块 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the technology industry, particularly sectors such as AI, robotics, autonomous driving, and the Hang Seng Technology Index Core Points and Arguments - **Macroeconomic Trends**: Emphasis on accelerating investment in technology sectors during periods of market downturns, with a focus on AI, robotics, and autonomous driving as key areas for future rebounds [1][3] - **2025 Investment Focus**: Key industries to watch include leading service consumption companies and firms enhancing shareholder returns. Notable sectors for performance upgrades from mid-March to early May include precious metals, transportation, large finance, agricultural products, and food processing [1][5] - **Capital Expenditure**: Identified as a crucial driver for the technology market, with recent trends indicating increased investment from government and private sectors following the emergence of DeepSeek, which has altered expectations for domestic technological breakthroughs [1][6] - **Impact of Export Exposure**: Anticipated performance impact from the complete elimination of export exposure to the U.S. is estimated to be between 20% to 40%, potentially leading to 2-3 trading halts for individual stocks. However, this should not be interpreted as a signal of a comprehensive recession [1][7] - **May Market Outlook**: The market direction remains unclear, but two key themes are highlighted: potential rebounds in export chains due to easing U.S.-China relations, particularly in technology products, and the ongoing focus on technology sectors including AI, robotics, and new consumption trends [1][8] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Three-Phase Strategy for Tariff Impacts**: A structured approach to address recent tariff impacts includes: 1. Counter-cyclical strategies based on past trade disputes 2. Active management of market sentiment and performance expectations 3. Continued focus on technology sectors and self-sufficiency in critical areas like semiconductors and military materials [2] - **Long-term Investment Recommendations**: Industries suitable for long-term strategic investments include those with supply-side clearing such as Hong Kong internet, AH stock white goods, commercial vehicles, and lithium battery leaders, along with agricultural chemicals and pharmaceuticals [11] - **Annual Strategy Consistency**: The annual investment strategy remains unchanged, focusing on three main lines: AI and robotics, new consumption, and supply-side clearing sectors, with additional allocations to agricultural chemicals and military aerospace equipment [9][10]

廖市无双：节后市场能否走出主升浪？20250505 摘要 • 上证指数在 3,140-3,500 点区间震荡，中枢约 3,330-3,340 点，清明节 后下翻修复，上方套牢盘集中在 3,300 点以上，反弹阻力逐渐增大，形成 楔形形态，补缺口难度增加。关注外部利好能否加速突破，否则可能转折 向下。 • 节前三个交易日市场窄幅震荡，上证 50 微跌，成长指数反弹。上证 50 已 补缺口并超涨，蓝筹股指数未能表达趋势性变化，区间震荡偏空。恒生科 技指数压力位对应跳空缺口上沿，受中美贸易紧张局势影响，存在抛售压 力，预计 4 月 27 日前仍区间震荡。 • 未来市场走势以区间震荡为主，支撑位在跳空缺口下沿，压力位在跳空缺 口上沿（约 3,350-3,340 点）。中证 500、1,000 和国证 2000 震荡反映 市场交易心理，投资者认为"有缺必补"，且前期风险偏好低，集中在自 主可控、内需板块，风险偏好回升后，这些板块成为补涨主战场。 • 市场风险偏好提高，成长风格优于价值风格。上证 50 已补缺，中证 1,000、国证 2000 仍有较大缺口。前期受压制的 AI、机器人等题材开始 表现强劲，资金转向需要补涨 ...

Market Performance - In April, A-shares experienced significant volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.7% to 3279.03 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 5.75% to 9899.82 points, and the ChiNext Index down 7.4% to 1948.03 points [1][2]. Future Outlook - Analysts are optimistic about the A-share market in May, suggesting it is a good time for positioning, as historical data shows that the Shanghai Composite Index has risen in 7 out of the last 15 years during the 10 trading days following the May Day holiday [2][3]. Sector Performance - Historical analysis indicates that consumer and large financial sectors tend to perform well in the 10 trading days before and after the May Day holiday, driven by policy support and upward industry trends [3][4]. Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend focusing on three asset categories: stable assets (high dividends, gold), self-sufficient industrial chains, and domestic consumption [4][5]. - There is a consensus that the Chinese stock market's upward momentum is not over, with suggestions to increase allocations to Chinese assets due to improved economic policies and a decrease in risk premiums [4][5]. Structural Opportunities - May is expected to see a structural recovery in A-shares, with a focus on consumption, technology, and dividend stocks as key investment themes [5].

A股公司赴港上市队伍进一步扩大。仅4月22日至4月28日，就有8家A股公司向香港交易及结算所有限公 司（以下简称"港交所"）递表。《证券日报》记者根据公司公告及递表情况统计，截至5月5日，有46家 A股公司拟赴港上市。其中，已向港交所递表并获得中国证监会境外发行上市备案通知书的A股公司有7 家。 在政策支持、港股吸引力提升等多重因素推动下，越来越多的公司谋求赴港上市，以期拓展国际业务版 图、优化融资渠道、提升全球影响力。 消费、科技公司占多数 上述拟赴港上市的A股公司大多来自消费、科技等行业。例如，佛山市海天调味食品股份有限公司、东 鹏饮料（集团）股份有限公司、安井食品集团股份有限公司都是国内知名的消费品公司。宁德时代新能 源科技股份有限公司、蓝思科技股份有限公司、浙江三花智能控制股份有限公司、江苏恒瑞医药股份有 限公司则来自新能源、芯片、医药等科技产业。 "消费零售企业赴港上市的主要驱动因素包括企业的国际化扩张战略、吸引国际投资者优化股东结构， 以及香港资本市场在后续融资和股权激励方面更具灵活性等。"高盛亚洲（除日本外）消费零售主管兼 并购主管Sushil Bathija表示，多数消费零售企业现金流充沛、盈 ...

Core Viewpoint - The April PMI data indicates a decline in manufacturing while the service sector remains in expansion, suggesting potential policy adjustments in response to economic conditions [1][4]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for April is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the critical threshold [1][2]. - Production and new orders indices are at 49.8% and 49.2%, respectively, both showing declines of 2.8 and 2.6 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing production and market demand [2]. - High-tech manufacturing PMI remains in the expansion zone at 51.5%, despite a 0.8 percentage point drop, demonstrating resilience and strong support from market demand and policy [3]. - The decline in manufacturing PMI is attributed to external economic changes, particularly the impact of increased tariffs from the U.S., and seasonal factors, as April typically sees a decrease following the peak in March [2][3]. Service Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still indicates expansion [4]. - The service sector PMI is at 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, with seasonal factors contributing to this change [5]. - The construction PMI is reported at 51.9%, down 1.5 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in real estate investment, although civil engineering activity shows a significant increase, indicating potential for future growth [5]. Economic Outlook - The expectation is that domestic demand will counterbalance the slowdown in external demand, becoming a key support for manufacturing sector performance [6]. - There is a prediction that the manufacturing PMI may remain in the contraction zone in May but could rebound to around 49.5% due to increased policy support [7]. - The likelihood of policy rate cuts is increasing as the manufacturing PMI remains in contraction for two consecutive months, with expectations for timely adjustments in monetary policy [1][7].

Group 1 - The A-share market maintained a volatile consolidation before the May Day holiday, while the Hong Kong stock market continued to rebound, with the Every Day Brand 100 Index slightly down by 0.12% to close at 1052 points [1][2] - Chinese concept stocks led the gains, with notable weekly increases for Xiaomi Group (11.32%), JD Group (6.7%), and Pinduoduo (6.64%), while several other stocks also showed strong performance [2] - In April, the Every Day Brand 100 Index exhibited a "V" shaped trend despite external shocks, indicating a slow recovery in market confidence and the need for a solid economic rebound [2][3] Group 2 - With the disclosure of Q1 2025 quarterly reports, public funds showed significant adjustments in their holdings, with Tencent Holdings, Alibaba-W, and SMIC seeing the largest increases in positions [4] - The total scale of public funds reached 31.62 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.93% from the previous quarter, indicating a shift in investment strategies [4] - Alibaba's stock price surged by 55.34% in Q1 2025, driven by strategic divestments and a focus on core business operations, including advancements in its AI model [4] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance since 2025, with both the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index outperforming mainland indices, suggesting potential investment opportunities in specific Hong Kong stocks [5] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF covers a wide range of Chinese concept stocks, with Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi accounting for approximately 45% of the index weight [6] Group 4 - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index, which tracks 50 leading technology companies, reflects the overall performance of technology stocks within the Hong Kong Stock Connect framework [9] - The index has demonstrated superior returns over mainstream broad-based indices, with an annualized return of 12.34% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.52, indicating a favorable risk-return profile [12]

Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 880 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.6%, primarily due to the divestment of its real estate business [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 50.712 million yuan, down 14.1% year-on-year, influenced by reduced income, decreased profits from associated companies, and increased R&D expenses [1] - The non-recurring net profit was 46.990 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7% [1] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin improved to 51.3%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The net profit margin was 7.2%, down 1.0 percentage point year-on-year [1] - The selling expense ratio decreased to 35.5%, down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the management expense ratio increased to 4.7%, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [1] Cosmetics Segment - The cosmetics segment generated revenue of 530 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.6%, with a gross margin of 61.1% [2] - The Yilian brand achieved revenue of 250 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25%, while the Ai'er Doctor brand saw revenue decline by 18.4% to 240 million yuan [2] - The segment focused on R&D and technological innovation, with 12 new patents authorized and 47 new products launched [2] Pharmaceutical and Raw Materials Segment - The pharmaceutical business achieved revenue of 110 million yuan, remaining stable year-on-year, with a gross margin of 54.8% [3] - The raw materials and derivatives segment generated revenue of 90 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, with a gross margin of 29.7% [3] - The company launched 8 new health food products and received international patent authorization for sodium hyaluronate quaternary ammonium salt [3] Future Outlook - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits attributable to shareholders to be 330 million, 370 million, and 420 million yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 23, 20, and 18 times [3] - The company anticipates significant growth signals in 2025, driven by consumer spending and the expansion of its skincare and sub-brands [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 earnings that met market expectations, with total revenue of 876 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.6%, primarily due to the divestment of its real estate business. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 50.71 million yuan, down 14.1% year-on-year, influenced by reduced revenue, decreased profits from associates, and increased R&D expenses [7][10] - The gross margin improved to 51.3%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.2%, down 1.0 percentage points. The sales expense ratio decreased to 35.5%, down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [7][12] - The cosmetics segment showed resilience, with revenue of 530 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.6%, and a gross margin of 61.1%. The Yilian brand achieved revenue of 250 million yuan, a 25% increase year-on-year, while the Aierbos brand saw a revenue decline of 18.4% [7] - The pharmaceutical and raw materials segments remained stable, with pharmaceutical revenue at 110 million yuan, maintaining year-on-year levels, and a gross margin of 54.8%. The raw materials segment achieved revenue of 90 million yuan, a 2.4% increase year-on-year [7] - The company aims to leverage its R&D advantages to build a comprehensive health industry chain across cosmetics, raw materials, and pharmaceuticals. The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 330 million, 370 million, and 420 million yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 23, 20, and 18 times [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 4,009 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 329 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 35.1% [6] - The gross margin is anticipated to improve to 57.8% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 7.5% [6]