中色股份（000758）公告，2024年营业收入89.18亿元，同比下降4.74%。归属于上市公司股东的净利润 4.02亿元，同比增长12.03%。基本每股收益0.2043元/股，同比增长12.01%。公司经本次董事会审议通过 的利润分配预案为：以19.93亿股为基数，向全体股东每10股派发现金红利0.46元(含税)，送红股0股(含 税)，不以公积金转增股本。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Copper**: The copper price opened higher in the morning, with the main contract price briefly reaching the 78,000 yuan mark before falling back. It oscillated below 78,000 yuan throughout the day, and the open interest increased slightly. The price increase was due to Trump's recognition of high tariffs on Chinese goods and the expected significant reduction. The short - term price has recovered to the level of February, the refined - scrap spread has widened, and the industrial support is strong but the driving force will decline. The rebound of the US dollar index will suppress the price increase. It is expected that the short - term copper price will oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 78,000 yuan [4]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price slightly rose and then fell in the morning, oscillating above 19,800 yuan throughout the day, and the open interest decreased continuously. The price increase was also due to the expected tariff reduction. The short - term macro environment is improving, high profits of smelters suppress the price, while active downstream production provides support. It is expected that the aluminum price will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 20,000 yuan [5]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price oscillated in the range of 125,000 - 126,000 yuan and closed above 126,000 yuan, with the open interest decreasing slightly. The short - term price has repeatedly failed to break through the 126,000 yuan mark, facing significant technical resistance. The short - term industrial outlook is weak, and the downstream stainless - steel market is sluggish. It is expected that the short - term nickel price will be weak [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On April 23, a fatal accident occurred at the Antamina copper mine in Peru, leading to a full - scale shutdown for safety and an investigation. Citi raised the copper futures price forecast to $8,800 per ton due to Trump's relaxed stance on tariffs [8]. - **Aluminum**: According to IAI data, the global primary aluminum production in March 2025 was 6.227 million tons, compared with 6.089 million tons in the same period last year and a revised 5.66 million tons in the previous month. The estimated primary aluminum production in China in March was 3.729 million tons, compared with a revised 3.399 million tons in the previous month [8]. - **Nickel**: On April 23, for the Shanghai market's main reference contract of refined nickel, the mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,250 yuan/ton, with a price of 127,800 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was +300 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,850 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was +2,750 yuan/ton, with a price of 128,300 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,650 yuan/ton [8]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [9][11][12]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [21][23][25]. - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [32][35][36].

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 4 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜上涨 1.08%至 9354 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.86%至 77610 元/吨；现货 | | | 进口窗口关闭，但亏损减弱。宏观方面，昨晚美国白宫态度出现重大转变，此前一直批 | | | 评美联储主席鲍威尔降息不够迅速、甚至威胁将其解雇的美国总统特朗普表示，无意解 | | | 雇鲍威尔。另外，美国财长贝森特表示，关税僵局不可持续，预计将在不久的将来，形 势有所缓和。白宫新闻秘书宣称，贸易谈判正取得进展，本周将与 34 个国家开会，并 | | | 表示特朗普希望降息，希望美元继续扮演全球储备货币的角色。库存方面，LME 铜库 | | 铜 | 存下降 700 吨至 212700 吨；Comex 铜库存增加 2235.33 吨至 116355.8 吨；SHFE 铜仓单 | | | 下降 6098 吨至 46693 吨；BC 铜仓单下降 603 吨至 11327 吨。需求方面，下游开工和订 | | | 单保持平稳，节前备货或进一步加快库存去化。3 月 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - Macroeconomic factor: Tariffs are the core variable for asset pricing. Trump may lower China's reciprocal tariffs. The pricing of copper in Q1 was mainly based on the expected spread of US copper import tariffs. The current spread between US and LME copper is around 10%, and the inventory trend is no longer differentiated, but the tariff factor still supports copper prices. - Fundamental factor: Demand is strong, with higher copper rod operating rates and basis, and better domestic inventory destocking. The copper ore supply remains tight. In the short term, copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with the main contract ranging from 76,000 to 79,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Supply side: Alumina operating capacity remains high, but recent supply - side production cuts due to losses have increased, and there are potential supply risks in Guinea's mines, which support short - term prices. - Demand side: Domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity is operating at a high level, with overall stable demand and limited incremental demand. The export window for domestic alumina is closed, and export demand has decreased. Currently, prices are close to costs, and marginal changes in the supply side may lead to price rebounds. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract ranging from 19,000 to 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Zinc - Supply side: The trend of loose zinc ore supply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the increase in TC and the expansion speed of refined zinc production. If the TC growth rate exceeds the theoretical expectation, it indicates that the loose ore supply has been smoothly transmitted to the refined zinc end, and the overall industrial chain supply will be more abundant. - Demand side: After the peak season, orders and operating rates have weakened. Downstream enterprises mainly purchase on a just - in - time basis, and spot transactions are average. Trump may lower China's reciprocal tariffs, and the tariff pressure has been relatively relieved. In the future, zinc prices may move down if terminal consumption is insufficient due to tariff policies; otherwise, they may maintain a high - level shock pattern. In the medium - to - long - term, a short - selling strategy is recommended, with the main contract ranging from 21,500 to 23,500 yuan/ton [5]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply side: Recently, the ore end has shown some signs of loosening. Although some upstream producers have carried out maintenance and production cuts in April, overall production has increased significantly since March, and the arrival of overseas ore has also increased, resulting in clear supply pressure. The incremental supply of lithium carbonate in April is expected to slow down marginally. - Demand side: Overall demand is relatively stable, but the performance during the peak season is lower than expected. Power orders are acceptable, but the number of energy - storage export orders is at risk of decline due to tariff policies. In May and June, which are usually off - peak seasons, the pressure may be greater. Currently, the market is in a situation of clear supply - demand contradiction, with weakening support at the raw material ore end and intensified long - short capital games at low valuations. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract ranging from 66,000 to 72,000 yuan/ton [7]. Stainless Steel - Market sentiment: The stainless - steel market maintained a narrow - range shock, and the market was mostly cautious and wait - and - see. Spot prices were generally stable. - Supply side: Some domestic steel mills have carried out maintenance and production cuts, but the stainless - steel production plan for April remains at a high level. - Demand side: Demand has certain resilience but is still slowly recovering. Household appliance consumption has a certain driving effect, and previous export orders have recovered well, but export orders to the US have stagnated due to tariffs. Downstream procurement is mainly for just - in - time needs, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is limited. Social inventory has decreased slightly, and inventory pressure has eased slightly. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract ranging from 12,600 to 13,000 yuan/ton [10]. Nickel - Market sentiment: The Shanghai nickel market maintained a narrow - range shock, and market sentiment was temporarily stable. - Supply side: Indonesia's new nickel product royalty policy is about to be implemented, which may increase the comprehensive cost of nickel mines. The pre - sale of Philippine nickel ore resources in May has been concentrated. - Demand side: Refined nickel spot transactions are generally average, and the spot premiums of most brands are stable. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with the main contract ranging from 122,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton [12]. Tin - Supply side: The processing fees of smelters are running at a low level. The import of tin ore from January to March decreased year - on - year. The earthquake in Myanmar affected the resumption of production, and the Bisie mine in Congo has resumed production, relieving the supply pressure to some extent. - Demand side: Driven by domestic policies, the operating rate of soldering tin has improved, but mainly in leading enterprises, and the order improvement of small and medium - sized enterprises is limited. In the future, tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to hold short positions at high levels and adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - Price and basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 645 yuan/ton to 77,195 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.84%. The basis of various copper types also changed to varying degrees. - Fundamental data: In March, electrolytic copper production was 1.1221 million tons, up 6.04% month - on - month; imports were 308,800 tons, up 15.24% month - on - month. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased by 3.31 percentage points to 78.07%. Domestic social inventory decreased by 540,000 tons to 1.965 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21.56% [1]. Aluminum - Price and spread: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 19,880 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.15%. The social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum decreased by 510,000 tons to 6.73 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.04%. - Fundamental data: In March, alumina production was 7.549 million tons, up 8.85% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 3.3396 million tons, up 11.22% month - on - month. The operating rates of various aluminum processing industries showed different changes [3]. Zinc - Price and spread: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 40 yuan/ton to 22,580 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.18%. - Fundamental data: In March, refined zinc production was 546,900 tons, up 13.70% month - on - month; imports were 33,700 tons, down 15.27% month - on - month; exports were 400 tons, down 91.04% month - on - month. The social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions decreased by 126,000 tons to 930,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.93% [5]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and basis: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 70,400 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.64%. - Fundamental data: In March, lithium carbonate production was 79,065 tons, up 23.44% month - on - month; demand was 87,002 tons, up 15.07% month - on - month. In April, the production capacity was 133,522 tons, up 1.52% month - on - month; the operating rate was 45%, up 20 percentage points month - on - month [7]. Stainless Steel - Price and basis: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,150 yuan/ton. The price of raw materials such as nickel ore and chromium ore was mostly stable, while the price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 976 yuan/nickel point. - Fundamental data: In April, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in 43 Chinese enterprises was 3.4401 million tons, up 11.37% month - on - month; the production in Indonesia's Qinglong was 420,000 tons, down 6.67% month - on - month. Stainless - steel exports increased by 70.98% month - on - month to 470,600 tons [10]. Nickel - Price and basis: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 126,700 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.16%. - Fundamental data: In March, China's refined nickel product production decreased by 5.69% month - on - month to 28,320 tons; imports increased by 99.27% month - on - month to 18,897 tons. SHFE inventory decreased by 8.00% week - on - week to 30,594 tons [12]. Tin - Price and basis: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 900 yuan/ton to 258,800 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.35%. - Fundamental data: In March, tin ore imports were 8,323 tons, down 4.83% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 15,080 tons, up 7.33% month - on - month; imports were 2,101 tons, up 12.41% month - on - month; exports were 1,673 tons, down 29.50% month - on - month [13].

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved a revenue of 27.25 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 710 million yuan, up 16.8% year-on-year, and a non-recurring net profit of 610 million yuan, up 17.1% year-on-year, indicating that the performance in 2024 met expectations [1] Revenue Growth - The recovery of the automotive markets in China and the U.S. contributed to a quarter-on-quarter revenue growth in Q4 2024 [2] - Key factors for revenue growth in Q4 2024 include: 1) Rising aluminum prices, with the average price of A00 aluminum ingots increasing by 6.7% year-on-year in 2024 and by 8.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2024 2) Improved automotive sales, with domestic passenger car sales in China increasing by 10.8% quarter-on-quarter and 31.9% year-on-year, and U.S. passenger car sales up by 7.3% quarter-on-quarter and 8.5% year-on-year [2] - Revenue breakdown by business for Q4 2024: - Casting aluminum alloy: 15.01 billion yuan, up 25.3% year-on-year - Wheels: 8.79 billion yuan, up 3.8% year-on-year - Intermediate alloys: 2.1 billion yuan, up 12.6% year-on-year - Others: 1.17 billion yuan, up 29.0% year-on-year [2] Profitability Improvement - Multiple factors contributed to the quarter-on-quarter recovery of profitability in Q4 2024 [3] - Gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 9.6% and 2.6%, respectively, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.9 and 0.0 percentage points; for Q4 2024, gross margin and net margin were 9.3% and 2.7%, respectively, down 1.3 and 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The casting aluminum alloy business benefited from higher-margin non-heat-treated alloys, scale effects, and an increased proportion of recycled aluminum, with profit per ton rising from approximately 160 yuan/ton to about 230 yuan/ton [3] - The wheel hub business faced profitability pressure due to overseas ramp-up and exchange rate fluctuations [3] - Looking ahead, the company expects further recovery in profitability driven by product structure optimization in the casting aluminum alloy business and improved capacity utilization in the wheel hub business [3] R&D and New Industry Layout - The company is accelerating research and development in aluminum alloy materials and expanding into emerging industries [3] - Key developments include: 1) Non-heat-treated alloys for the one-piece die-casting field in new energy vehicles, with strategic customer approvals obtained 2) Weldable die-casting aluminum alloys for automotive thermal management systems and expansion into energy storage and computing centers 3) Aluminum-based rare earth intermediate alloys and aerospace-grade special intermediate alloys used in aerospace and low-altitude economy 4) Silicon-aluminum dispersion composite materials for chip packaging and semiconductor equipment manufacturing [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Due to the short-term negative impact of U.S. tariffs on demand, the company has lowered its 2025 profit forecast by 9.0% to 860 million yuan, while maintaining the 2026 profit forecast at 1.11 billion yuan [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 12.0x for 2025 and 9.3x for 2026, maintaining an outperform rating [4] - The target price is set at 21 yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 15.5x for 2025 and 12.0x for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 28.8% from the current stock price [4]

Report Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report is generally optimistic about copper prices and suggests continuing to focus on positive spreads between months. For aluminum, it advises waiting and seeing on absolute prices, taking profit on aluminum internal - external reverse spreads, and holding positive spreads between months. For zinc, short - term prices are expected to fluctuate widely following macro - drivers with support at the bottom, and mid - to long - term, there are opportunities to short at high prices. For nickel, short - term prices are under pressure, and attention should be paid to the narrowing opportunity of the nickel - stainless steel ratio. For stainless steel, unilateral prices are expected to be under pressure, and reverse spreads can be carried over. For lead, prices are expected to oscillate upwards next week. For tin, short - term prices are supported, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances after the third quarter. For industrial silicon, prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the long - term. For lithium carbonate, short - term prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and long - term prices are likely to oscillate widely at the bottom [1][2][3][6][8][10][12] Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Situation**: Tariff disturbances continued this week with a marginal dulling market reaction. Overseas, the LC spread rose to $1200, CMX inventory accumulated, and LME inventory increased slightly. Domestically, the de - stocking slope remained high, downstream orders continued, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased significantly. The refined - scrap spread narrowed, and the scrap copper market was tight in both supply and demand [1] - **Outlook**: The domestic peak season pattern is healthy, and the report is relatively optimistic about copper prices, suggesting to continue focusing on positive spreads between months [1] Aluminum - **Market Situation**: Supply increased slightly, and aluminum ingot imports were acceptable from January to February. Profile consumption improved, the refined - scrap spread widened after price drops, downstream profits improved, and there was some restocking and export rush. Inventory is expected to decline significantly in April [1] - **Outlook**: Due to pessimistic demand expectations from tariff concerns, wait and see on absolute prices, take profit on aluminum internal - external reverse spreads, and hold positive spreads between months [1] Zinc - **Market Situation**: Zinc prices fluctuated widely after opening lower, affected by tariff uncertainties. Supply: Domestic TC and import TC were unchanged this week, and domestic smelting output increased slightly in April. Overseas, the Benchmark was set at $80/dry ton. Demand: Consumption was affected by tariffs, with a strong willingness to rush exports, and the premium increased significantly, but the rush is expected to be short - lived. Overseas demand was weak. Domestic social inventory decreased rapidly, and overseas visible inventory decreased with remaining cancelled warrants [2] - **Outlook**: Short - term prices will follow macro - drivers and fluctuate widely with support at the bottom due to low inventory. Mid - to long - term, consider shorting at high prices, but beware of over - expected infrastructure investment policies [2] Nickel - **Market Situation**: Pure nickel production remained high. Demand was weak overall, but the Jinchuan premium was strong. Overseas nickel plate inventory remained stable, and domestic inventory decreased slightly. Prices fluctuated sharply due to tariff policy games [3] - **Outlook**: Short - term prices are under pressure due to weak fundamentals and recession sentiment. Pay attention to tariff policies from Indonesia and the narrowing opportunity of the nickel - stainless steel ratio [3] Stainless Steel - **Market Situation**: Production in April increased seasonally. Demand also increased seasonally. Costs: Nickel iron and chrome iron prices were under pressure. Inventory: De - stocking in Xifu slowed, and some exchange warehouse receipts expired [3] - **Outlook**: Fundamentals are weak, and under tariff impacts, steel mill profits are under pressure. Unilateral prices are expected to be under pressure, and reverse spreads can be carried over [3] Lead - **Market Situation**: Lead prices rebounded from a low level. Supply: Scrap battery recycling was weak, recyclers held goods for higher prices, and mid - stream smelters had a need for scrap batteries. Demand: Battery export orders decreased slightly, and overall demand was weak. The refined - scrap spread was 75, LME inventory increased, and SHFE inventory decreased [6] - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to oscillate upwards next week. Pay attention to recyclers' price - holding behavior and smelter maintenance and production cuts [6] Tin - **Market Situation**: Tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply: African Alphamin's mine is preparing to resume production, but the resumption time in Myanmar's Wa State is uncertain. Processing fees at the mine end are low. Indonesian exports are normal, and MSC in Malaysia is shut down until the end of April. Demand: Solder factories recovered seasonally, and downstream replenishment was strong when prices dropped. Inventory: Domestic inventory decreased slightly, and overseas inventory oscillated at a low level [8] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, pay attention to the de - stocking speed of visible inventory. In the first half of the year, fundamentals are expected to remain tight, and prices are supported. In the long - term, pay attention to supply disturbances after the third quarter and shorting opportunities [8] Industrial Silicon - **Market Situation**: After northern production cuts, other large factories did not continue to cut production. Southwest small factories maintained stable production. Inventory increased slightly after the increase in northern production, and the de - stocking speed was not obvious, with the absolute level still high [10] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, supply and demand both decreased, and the market reached a tight balance. In the long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom due to the approaching of the cash - flow cost line [10] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: Polysilicon production was stable this week, and upstream inventory remained at a relatively high level. In April, the peak season and rush - installation expectations began to be realized in silicon wafer production, but visible inventory de - stocking is expected to be less than expected due to downstream pessimism about post - rush prices [12] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, prices are expected to oscillate at a low level. In the long - term, prices are likely to oscillate widely at the bottom due to over - capacity [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Tin - Supply side is gradually recovering, with smelter processing fees at a low level, and the supply pressure of tin ore has been alleviated to some extent. However, the US tariff still has room for fermentation. - Demand side has great uncertainty, although the solder开工率 has improved under the boost of domestic policies, mainly concentrated in leading enterprises, and the order improvement of small and medium - sized enterprises is limited. - It is expected that the tin price will fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to hold short positions at high levels and take a short - selling approach on rebounds. Follow up on the production dynamics of tin mines in Myanmar [1]. Nickel - Macro - level: The impact of US tariff policies has been gradually digested, but policy uncertainty still exists. - Industry - level: The spot price of refined nickel has declined slightly, and the spot premium of various brands has mostly remained stable. The new policy on the royalty of nickel products in Indonesia is about to be implemented, which may increase the comprehensive cost of nickel mines. - Nickel iron prices are under pressure, and the profit of the nickel sulfate industry needs to be repaired. - Overall, the short - term macro situation is stable, but there is still uncertainty. The cost provides support at the bottom, but the medium - term supply is loose, so it is expected that the futures price will fluctuate and adjust, with the main contract running between 122,000 - 128,000 [2]. Stainless Steel - Macro: The impact of US tariff policies has been digested, but there is still uncertainty. - Industry: The price of nickel ore is relatively firm, but the price of nickel iron has declined. The supply is relatively loose in the short term, domestic demand has certain resilience but recovers slowly, and export demand is blocked. - Inventory pressure has been slightly relieved. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate weakly, with the main contract running between 12,600 - 13,000 [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The market has basically digested the previous macro - sentiment, and the fundamentals lack positive factors. - The supply pressure is obvious, although the supply increase in April is expected to slow down marginally. - Demand is generally stable, but there is a risk of a decline in energy - storage export orders due to tariff policies. - Inventory is relatively high, and the pressure may increase with the rapid registration of warehouse receipts. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate weakly, with the main contract running between 68,000 - 72,000 [6]. Zinc - Supply side: The trend of a loose ore end remains unchanged. Pay attention to the increase in TC and the expansion speed of refined zinc production. If the TC growth rate exceeds the theoretical expectation, it indicates that the looseness of the ore end is smoothly transmitted to the refined zinc end, and the overall industrial chain supply will be loose. - Demand side: After the peak season, orders and the start - up rate have weakened, and downstream enterprises mainly maintain rigid procurement, with general spot trading performance. - In the context of the US equivalent tariff policy, the demand side faces certain pressure. In a pessimistic scenario, the zinc price may decline; in an optimistic scenario, the zinc price may maintain a high - level shock. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach for medium - to - long - term layout, and focus on the growth rate of zinc ore production and the rhythm of tariff policies, with the main contract paying attention to the support level of 20,500 - 21,500 [9]. Alumina - Supply side: The operating capacity of alumina remains at a high level, but the situation of production cuts due to losses has increased recently. Coupled with the potential supply risk of the Guinea ore end, there is support for the short - term price decline. - Demand side: The domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity operates at a high level, the overall demand is stable with limited growth, the export window of domestic alumina is closed, and export demand has decreased. - Overall, short - term production cuts provide short - term support for the price, but the price is close to the cost. Pay attention to the dynamic changes in cost and the supply - side changes, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. Aluminum - Supply side: The electrolytic aluminum capacity operates stably, and the复产 capacity in the Sichuan - Chongqing area has fully resumed production with limited subsequent growth. - Demand side: The start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises has returned to normal, and industries such as automobiles and home appliances maintain a seasonally prosperous level under the boost of domestic demand policies, but the peak season is coming to an end, and there is an expectation of marginal weakening in demand. - Inventory: Both LME and domestic social inventories are decreasing, and the low inventory provides support for the price. - Overall, the short - term fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum are good, but the tariff policy game suppresses the demand expectation and intensifies price fluctuations. It is expected that the aluminum price will fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract running between 19,000 - 21,000 [11]. Copper - Macro: The equivalent tariff is the core variable for asset pricing. Pay attention to the progress of tariff negotiations. The US "232" investigation on copper provides certain support for copper prices before a clear result is announced. - Fundamentals: The demand side is strong, with high copper rod start - up rates and inventory reduction. However, after the implementation of the US tariff policy, there is an expectation of weakening demand. - Overall, the copper market presents a combination of "strong reality + weak expectation". The strong fundamentals limit the decline of copper prices, while the weak demand expectation restricts the upward space. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract paying attention to the pressure level of 76,000 - 77,000 [12]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 1,01% to 259,700 yuan/ton; SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 13.04% to 1,000 yuan/ton. - The import loss decreased by 13.38% to - 7,068.36 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.27 [1]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads between 2505 - 2506, 2506 - 2507, 2507 - 2508, and 2508 - 2509 contracts changed by 600.00%, 340.00%, 18.18%, and - 29.63% respectively [1]. Fundamental Data - In March, the import of tin ore decreased by 4.83% to 8,323 tons, the production of refined tin increased by 7.33% to 15,080 tons, the import volume of refined tin increased by 12.41% to 2,101 tons, and the export volume decreased by 29.50% to 1,673 tons. - The average start - up rate of SMM refined tin in March was 62.60%, an increase of 7.38% [1]. Inventory - SHEF inventory decreased by 7.77% to 9,571 tons, social inventory decreased by 10.09% to 10,485 tons, SHEF warehouse receipts decreased by 0.30% to 9,183 tons, and LME inventory increased by 0.18% to 2,850 tons [1]. Nickel Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.31% to 126,900 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 4.26% to 2,450 yuan/ton. - The import loss of refined nickel decreased by 1.78% to - 3,469 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.01 [2]. Cost of Electrolytic Nickel Production - The cost of producing electrolytic nickel from integrated MHP and high - grade nickel matte increased by 1.85% and 2.47% respectively, while the cost of producing from externally - purchased raw materials mostly decreased slightly [2]. New Energy Material Prices - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.84% to 70,850 yuan/ton, and the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained unchanged at 28,050 yuan/ton [2]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads between 2506 - 2507, 2507 - 2508, and 2508 - 2509 contracts changed by - 120 yuan/ton, + 130 yuan/ton, and - 180 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - China's refined nickel production decreased by 5.69% to 28,320 tons, and the import volume increased by 99.27% to 18,897 tons. - SHFE inventory decreased by 8.00% to 30,594 tons, social inventory decreased by 5.87% to 43,308 tons, and LME inventory increased by 0.96% to 204,528 tons [2]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan remained stable or decreased slightly, and the spot - futures spread decreased by 1.85% to 530 yuan/ton [4]. Raw Material Prices - The average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore remained unchanged at 61 US dollars/wet ton, and the price of 8 - 12% high - grade nickel pig iron decreased by 0.15% to 984 yuan/nickel point [4]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads between 2506 - 2507, 2507 - 2508, and 2508 - 2509 contracts changed by + 5 yuan/ton, + 5 yuan/ton, and - 5 yuan/ton respectively [4]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 11.37% to 344.01 million tons, and Indonesia's production decreased by 6.67% to 42.00 million tons. - Stainless steel imports decreased by 19.45% to 12.89 million tons, and exports increased by 70.98% to 47.06 million tons [4]. Inventory - The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased by 1.33% to 55.83 million tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1.87% to 17.65 million tons [4]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.84% to 70,850 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 346.67% to 670 yuan/ton [6]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads between 2505 - 2506, 2506 - 2507, and 2505 - 2512 contracts changed by 0 yuan/ton, - 80 yuan/ton, and - 220 yuan/ton respectively [6]. Fundamental Data - In March, lithium carbonate production increased by 23.44% to 79,065 tons, demand increased by 15.07% to 87,002 tons, imports in February increased by 47.03% to 18,125 tons, and exports decreased by 47.25% to 220 tons. - In April, the production capacity increased by 1.52% to 133,522 tons, and the start - up rate increased by 20.00% to 54% [6]. Inventory - In March, the total lithium carbonate inventory increased by 16.79% to 90,070 tons, downstream inventory increased by 27.94% to 39,293 tons, and smelter inventory increased by 9.40% to 50,777 tons [6]. Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.49% to 22,540 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 150 yuan/ton. - The import loss decreased by 86 yuan/ton to - 173 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.57 [9]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads between 2505 - 2506, 2506 - 2507, 2507 - 2508, and 2508 - 2509 contracts changed by - 30 yuan/ton, + 20 yuan/ton, + 10 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively [9]. Fundamental Data - In March, refined zinc production increased by 13.70% to 54.69 million tons, imports decreased by 15.27% to 3.37 million tons, and exports decreased by 91.04% to 0.04 million tons. - The start - up rates of galvanizing, die - cast zinc alloy, and zinc oxide were 64.34%, 58.39%, and 60.79% respectively. - China's seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 11.93% to 9.30 million tons, and LME inventory increased by 2.52% to 19.5 million tons [9]. Alumina and Aluminum Price and Spread - The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.40% to 19,910 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton. - The average price of alumina in Shandong remained unchanged at 2,840 yuan/ton, while the price in Shanxi increased by 0.35% to 2,880 yuan/ton. - The import loss of aluminum decreased by 25.6 yuan/ton to - 1,059 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.30. - The spreads between 2505 - 2506, 2506 - 2507, 2507 - 2508, and 2508 - 2509 contracts changed by - 10 yuan/ton, - 5 yuan/ton, + 5 yuan/ton, and + 10 yuan/ton respectively [11]. Fundamental Data - In March, alumina production increased by 8.85% to 754.90 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 11.22% to 371.42 million tons. - The start - up rates of aluminum profiles, aluminum cables, aluminum plates, and strips were 58.50%, 63.60%, 68.00%, and 73.00% respectively [11]. Inventory - China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 7.04% to 67.30 million tons, and LME inventory decreased by 0.65% to 43.4 million tons [11]. Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.31% to 76,550 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 45 yuan/ton to 175 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap copper price difference increased by 50.76% to 1,273 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 118.72 yuan/ton to - 206 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio was 8.34 [12]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads between 2505 - 2506, 2506 - 2507, and 2507 - 2508 contracts increased by 50 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, and 90 yuan/ton respectively [12]. Fundamental Data - In March, electrolytic copper production increased by 6.04% to 112.21 million tons, and imports increased by 15.24% to 30.88 million tons. - The start - up rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased by 3.31% to 78.07%, and the start - up rate of recycled copper rod production decreased by 1.06% to 29.82%. - Domestic social inventory decreased by 21.56% to 19.65 million tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 6.19% to 17.16 million tons [12

Group 1 - International copper futures rose by 0.13% in the night session, while Shanghai copper increased by 0.41% [1] - Shanghai aluminum saw an increase of 0.20%, and Shanghai zinc rose by 0.27% [1] - Shanghai lead experienced a slight increase of 0.09%, whereas Shanghai nickel declined by 0.18% [1] Group 2 - Shanghai tin recorded a decrease of 0.40%, while alumina futures rose by 0.35% in the night session [1] - Stainless steel futures remained stable during the night session [1]

| | 20250421申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 短期可能宽幅波动 | | | | 锌： 可能宽幅区间波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 可能短期震荡偏弱 | | | | 镍： 可能宽幅震荡 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | 铜 | 铜：周末夜盘铜价收低。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价 ，考验冶炼产 量。根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动电力 投资高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新能源渗透率提升有望 巩固汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美国关 | 短期可能宽 幅波动 | | | 税谈判进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 | | | | 锌：周末夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来 看，国内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电表现良好，地产数据降幅缩 | 可能宽幅区 | | 锌 | 窄。市场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复，前期锌价的回落 已部分消化产量增长预期。短期锌价可能宽幅波动，关注美国关税谈判进 | 间波动 | | | 展，以及美 ...

一、主要会计数据和财务指标 | 报告期指标 | 2024年年报 | 2023年年报 | 本年比上年增减(%) | 2022年年报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基本每股收益（元） | 0.1100 | 0.0900 | 22.22 | 0.2900 | | 每股净资产（元） | 6.37 | 6.37 | 0 | 8.17 | | 每股公积金(元) | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 3.56 | | 每股未分配利润(元) | 2.78 | 2.68 | 3.73 | 3.40 | | 每股经营现金流(元) | - | - | - | - | | 营业收入(亿元) | 41 | 35.36 | 15.95 | 35.34 | | 净利润(亿元) | 0.38 | 0.31 | 22.58 | 0.94 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 1.79 | 1.48 | 20.95 | 4.62 | 数据四舍五入，查看更多财务数据>> 前十大流通股东累计持有： 17232.94万股，累计占流通股比： 52.23%，较上期变化： 354.02万股。 | 名称 | 持有数量(万股) ...