1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soft Commodity Sector - Sugar**: The external raw sugar market continues to decline. Despite a downward adjustment in Brazil's production forecast, strong production increase expectations in the Northern Hemisphere are pressuring prices. In China, imports of syrup premixes in June were still significantly lower year - on - year but increased compared to the previous month. Policy adjustments have shifted imports, but the supply gap is widening. With strong supply and demand of domestic sugar, low inventory pressure on enterprises, and firm spot prices, there is still support for futures prices. However, import pressure is gradually materializing, with 750,000 tons of out - of - quota sugar expected to arrive in July, and large - scale imports of sugarcane in Yunnan this year are also suppressing prices. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are oscillating within a range [3]. - **Soft Commodity Sector - Pulp**: The recent sentiment in the domestic commodity market is positive, and the re - inflation expectation has driven low - priced commodities to strengthen. The fundamentals of the pulp market have changed little. Finished paper prices are weakly stable at low levels, and the off - season impact persists, with little short - term improvement in terminal demand. Suppliers' quotes are firm despite weak demand, port inventories are piling up, and the downstream papermaking market is performing poorly in the off - season, resulting in sufficient overall supply and low buyer replenishment enthusiasm. The market should be cautious about the height of the price increase [4]. - **Soft Commodity Sector - Cotton**: Globally, the new - season cotton market has shifted from a slight de - stocking to a slight stocking situation, putting pressure on the market. High - yielding cotton from South America and Australia is on the market, the good - quality rate of US cotton has slightly improved, and there are no obvious abnormal weather conditions in the production areas for now. However, there are still differences in the planted area, yield per unit, and abandonment rate in the US, which provide potential support and limit the continuous decline of prices. In the domestic market, there is a game between the expectation of tightened supply and weak downstream consumption, and the short - term upward momentum of futures prices has slowed down [5][6]. - **Fresh Fruit Sector - Apple**: Apple futures prices continue to oscillate at high levels. The recent price increase is due to overall positive commodity sentiment, the drive from the jujube market, and its own fundamental support, including low old - season inventory, a slight reduction in new - season production, and a year - on - year increase in the opening price of early - maturing apples. In the later period, low old - season inventory increases the possibility of a supply gap between the old and new seasons, and the high opening price of early - maturing apples further increases the market's expectation of a high opening price, but the extent of the increase is limited, and the actual situation depends on the new - season production, quality, and harvest progress [7]. - **Fresh Fruit Sector - Jujube**: After a continuous sharp rise in commodities, the sentiment has cooled. This week, short - covering has led to a collective sharp rebound in commodities, and jujube futures prices have followed the upward trend. The jujube futures have been in a wide - range oscillation. The warehouse receipts have slightly flowed out, and the 9 - 1 spread has continued to widen and then oscillated more sharply. The current spot inventory of jujubes is seasonally decreasing, but the overall remaining inventory is still not low. Attention should be paid to the weather conditions in the production areas during the fruit - setting period from late July to August [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Apple 2510**: Wait for opportunities to short at high prices. The main logic is that general consumption restricts the spot price, the new - season initial production estimate is better than before, and the overall futures price is expected to remain within a range. The support range is 7300 - 7350, and the pressure range is 8000 - 8100 [16]. - **Jujube 2601**: Hold long positions. The main logic is that the overall commodity sentiment is strengthening, and jujubes enter the production - forming period in the third quarter. The support range is 10200 - 10400, and the pressure range is 10500 - 11500 [16]. - **Sugar 2509**: Short - term band trading. The main logic is that the external raw sugar continues to decline, the domestic spot price is firm but import pressure is suppressing, and the futures price is in a narrow - range consolidation. The support range is 5740 - 5760, and the pressure range is 5850 - 5870 [16]. - **Pulp 2507**: Temporarily wait and see. The fundamental situation is stable, finished paper prices are weak, overseas prices have been adjusted downward, and the recent domestic re - inflation trading expectation is positive for pulp. The support range is 5000 - 5100, and the pressure range is 5300 - 5400 [16]. - **Cotton 2509**: Reduce long positions at high prices. The main logic is that previous negative factors have been digested, the spot supply is expected to tighten, and crude oil prices are disturbing the market. The support range is 13200 - 13300, and the pressure range is 14400 - 14500 [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamental Information**: In June 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 37,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.55%. As of July 16, the cold - storage inventory in the main apple - producing areas in China was 806,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 108,900 tons. As of July 17, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 734,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 90,300 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 435,200 tons. The estimated national apple output from the bagging survey is 36.5904 million tons, a 2.03% decrease from the previous year. According to Mysteel statistics, the 2025 - 2026 apple production season shows a slight increase trend, with the preliminary estimated national output of 37.3664 million tons, an increase of 859,300 tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 season [17]. - **Spot Market Situation**: In the Shandong production area, the mainstream transaction price is stable, storage merchants are willing to sell, and merchants purchase on demand. In the Qixia area, the mainstream transaction price of cold - storage paper - bag Fuji 80 and above first - and second - grade slice - red fruit farmers' goods is 3.0 - 3.8 yuan per jin. In Shaanxi, the Qinyang variety has been gradually listed, with the price in the Qianxian area similar to last year and the price of good - quality goods in the Tongchuan area higher than last year. In the sales areas, the sales speed is slow, and the price is stable [18]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market As of July 18, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,520 tons, a decrease of 168 tons or 1.57% compared to the previous week and a 71.08% increase year - on - year. Affected by the rise in the futures price, the spot prices in various sales areas have slightly increased, and there are more downstream price - inquiring customers. However, due to the off - season, terminal demand support is limited, and market transactions are mainly for goods reselling. Attention should be paid to the flower - setting and fruit - setting situations in the new - season production areas [19]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market As of Wednesday morning, the quoted price of sugar - making enterprises in the Kunming spot market remained at 5860 yuan per ton, the same as the previous day. Some merchants quoted 5830 - 5840 yuan per ton in the Kunming market. The spot market quoted prices of sugar - making enterprises in Guangxi were adjusted down to 6010 - 6030 yuan per ton (sugar factory truck - loading price), and some merchants' quoted prices were adjusted down to 6010 - 6020 yuan per ton (sugar factory truck - loading price) [21]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market Although demand is weak, suppliers' quotes for imported NBSK have been firm in the past week. Port inventories are piling up, and the downstream papermaking market is performing poorly in the off - season, resulting in sufficient overall supply and low buyer replenishment enthusiasm. Arauco announced on July 17 that the order price of its Uruguay Punta Pereira factory's bleached hardwood pulp in July would be reduced by 10 US dollars per ton to 490 US dollars per ton. At the same time, it will resume quoting prices for Chinese customers for its bleached hardwood pulp products from its Chilean pulp mill at 500 US dollars per ton. Brazilian suppliers have informed Chinese buyers that their July bleached hardwood pulp quote is 500 US dollars per ton. The South American bleached hardwood pulp evaluation price is 490 - 500 US dollars per ton, the same as last week [23][25]. 3.2.5 Cotton Market As of July 21, 2025, the cotton in Xinjiang has entered the peak flowering and boll - setting period, with a flowering rate of about 89.2%, a month - on - month increase of 5.8 percentage points. The average number of bolls is 5.3, a month - on - month increase of 1.3. In the main cotton - producing areas of Argentina, the weather has been sunny recently, which is beneficial for new - cotton picking, and the progress is expected to reach 75%. The processing work will continue until September and October [26]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2510 | 7956 | 27 | 0.34% | | Jujube 2509 | 9575 | 90 | 0.95% | | Sugar 2509 | 5834 | 11 | 0.19% | | Pulp 2509 | 5414 | 46 | 0.86% | | Cotton 2509 | 14180 | - 45 | - 0.32% | [26] 3.3.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan per jin) | 3.90 | 0.00 | - 0.25 | | Jujube (yuan per kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan per ton) | 6050 | 0 | - 410 | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5950 | 0 | - 150 | | Cotton (yuan per ton) | 15543 | - 6 | - 163 | [34] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific text content provided, only figure references (Figures 14 - 17). 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - Month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 10 - 1 | 139 | 13 | 42 | Oscillate repeatedly | Wait and see | | Jujube | 9 - 1 | - 1020 | - 1005 | - 655 | Oscillate within a range | Wait and see | | Sugar | 9 - 1 | 178 | 8 | - 71 | Oscillate within a range | Wait and see | [50] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific text content provided, only figure references (Figures 24 - 69). 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 8912 | 0 | - 2704 | | Sugar | 21098 | - 261 | 4877 | | Pulp | 255819 | 0 | - 251790 | | Cotton | 9382 | - 54 | - 2728 | [73] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - Related Data No specific text content provided, only figure references (Figures 46 - 84).

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Grains and Oils**: The overall situation of grains and oils is complex. For example, the price of soybeans is affected by factors such as domestic auctions and new - season supply. The price of peanuts is influenced by import volume, weather, and planting area. The supply - demand relationship of various oils (soybean oil, rapeseed oil, palm oil) is also different, with different price trends and trading strategies [3][4][5]. - **Feed**: The feed market is also in a state of change. The price of corn is affected by factors such as import volume and regional supply, and the price of soybean meal is related to the price of CBOT soybeans and the progress of purchasing [6][7]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The livestock and poultry market is sensitive to policies. The prices of pigs and eggs are affected by factors such as market sentiment, consumption seasonality, and production costs [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Market Judgment** - **Oilseeds**: For soybeans (both domestic and imported), the supply is expected to increase, and the prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. For peanuts, the new - season production is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be range - bound. For oils, the fundamentals of soybean oil are weak, while palm oil has potential positive factors [12]. - **Proteins**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to rise, mainly due to factors such as the reduction of soybean purchases in the fourth quarter [12]. - **Energy and By - products**: The prices of corn and corn starch are expected to be range - bound, and short - selling orders are recommended to be reduced at low prices [12]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The price of pigs is expected to rebound, and the price of eggs is expected to bottom out. Appropriate trading strategies are recommended for different contracts [12]. - **Commodity Arbitrage** - **Inter - period Arbitrage**: For most varieties, the current recommendation is to wait and see. However, for soybean meal 11 - 1, a positive spread strategy is recommended, and for pigs 9 - 1 and eggs 9 - 1, a positive spread strategy at low prices is recommended [14]. - **Inter - commodity Arbitrage**: Different trading strategies are recommended for different combinations of varieties, such as short - selling operations for 09 soybean oil - palm oil, and long - selling operations for 09 rapeseed oil - soybean oil [14]. - **Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies** - The report provides the current spot prices, price changes, and basis data of various varieties, which can be used as a reference for spot - futures trading [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table - **Oils and Oilseeds** - **Daily Data**: The table shows the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipment periods, including arrival premiums, futures prices, CNF prices, and landed duty - paid prices [17][18]. - **Weekly Data**: It includes the inventory, operating rates of oil plants, and other data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and peanuts, which reflect the current supply and demand situation of the industry [19]. - **Feed** - **Daily Data**: The import costs of corn from different countries and different months are provided [19]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory, and operating rates of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [20]. - **Livestock and Poultry** - **Daily Data**: The daily price data of pigs and eggs in different regions are provided, including spot prices, price changes, and other information [21][22]. - **Weekly Data**: The weekly key data of pigs and eggs, such as breeding costs, profits, production rates, and inventory, are presented [23][24][25]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock and Poultry**: The charts show the price trends of pigs and eggs, including futures and spot prices, as well as related data such as breeding costs and profits [27][28][31]. - **Oils and Oilseeds** - **Palm Oil**: It includes the production, export, inventory, and price spread data of Malaysian palm oil, as well as the import and domestic inventory data of palm oil [35][37][40]. - **Soybean Oil**: The charts show the soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, and other data in the United States, as well as the domestic soybean oil plant operating rates and inventory [46][47][48]. - **Peanuts**: It includes the arrival and shipment volume of peanuts in domestic markets, as well as the peanut processing profit and inventory data [50][51]. - **Feed** - **Corn**: The charts show the inventory, sales progress, import volume, and consumption data of corn, as well as the processing profit of corn alcohol enterprises [54][55][56]. - **Corn Starch**: It includes the operating rates, inventory, and processing profit data of corn starch enterprises [56][58]. - **Rapeseed**: The charts show the spot prices, basis, inventory, and processing profit data of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil [58][61][62]. - **Soybean Meal**: It includes the weather conditions in the United States, the growth progress of soybeans, and the inventory data of soybeans and soybean meal [65][67][69]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock, and Oils The historical volatility data of various futures varieties and the trading volume and open interest data of corn options are provided, which can be used as a reference for options trading [71][73][78]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The warehouse receipt data of various futures varieties are provided, which can reflect the market supply and demand situation to a certain extent [75][77][80].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [3][5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For soybean meal, although the sown area of new - season US soybeans has decreased, high yields are expected to lead to a bumper harvest. In China, oil mills are accumulating inventory, the breeding industry is in a seasonal consumption off - season, and the supply is relatively loose. The soybean meal futures price rose last week due to macro - sentiment, and future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policies and new - season US soybean growth [2] - For corn, in China, after a wave of concentrated grain sales in the main producing areas, the trade inventory has decreased, the demand from feed and deep - processing enterprises is mainly based on on - demand replenishment, and the impact of imported corn auctions on prices has weakened [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Soybean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3095 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (+0.29%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2758 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (+0.80%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3000 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2900 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2890 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2710 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: From July 1 - 18, Brazil's soybean exports reached 743.7 million tons, with a daily average of 53.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.6% [1] Market Analysis - The weather in the main US soybean - producing areas is favorable, and high yields are expected to offset the reduction in sown area. In China, the supply is loose, the demand is in a seasonal off - season, and the spot price is stable. The futures price rose due to macro - sentiment. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policies and new - season US soybean growth [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 2. Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2321 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.04%); the corn starch 2509 contract was 2675 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (+0.26%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2740 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Market Information: In the first three weeks of July, Brazil exported 90 million tons of corn, with a daily average of 6.4 million tons, a 58% decrease compared to the daily average in July last year. The US corn growth good - to - excellent rate was 74%, the highest since 2016 and unchanged from the previous week [3] Market Analysis - In China, after concentrated grain sales, the trade inventory has decreased. Feed and deep - processing enterprises mainly replenish inventory as needed, and the impact of imported corn auctions on prices has weakened [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

Report Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][5][8] Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a pattern of loose supply. Zhengzhou cotton prices are supported by inventory tightening before the new cotton is on the market, but the continuous upward space is restricted. In the medium - long term, the new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress cotton prices [2] - The global sugar market is expected to increase production in the new year. Zhengzhou sugar has a strong spot price due to fast sales, but there is still pressure from imported sugar, and the long - term sugar price is in a downward cycle [4][5] - The pulp market has supply pressure in the second half of the year, and the demand improvement is limited. The short - term pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom [7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 14,180 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton or 0.32% from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,411 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,543 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton [1] - As of July 19, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 16.7%, up 3.1 percentage points from the previous week, 3.8% slower than the same period last year. As of July 21, India's weekly cotton listing volume was 13,400 tons, a year - on - year decline of 58%, and the cumulative listing volume in the 2024/25 season was 5.0817 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 4% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the supply of the global cotton market in the 25/26 season is expected to be loose. The US cotton futures price is expected to fluctuate with the macro - market sentiment. Domestically, the rapid de - stocking of commercial cotton inventory and the non - issuance of sliding - scale duty quotas support Zhengzhou cotton prices, but the strong expectation of a new cotton harvest and weak terminal demand restrict the upward space [2] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract may continue to rise, but the upward space of the far - month 01 contract is limited [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,834 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.19% from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,920 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4] - According to the OECD - FAO, the global sugar price is expected to decline slightly, but there are multiple uncertainties. India is expected to remain the third - largest sugar exporter, and the proportion of ethanol production in sugar production is expected to increase from 9% to 22% by 2034 [4] Market Analysis - The international sugar market is trading the expectation of global production increase, and the rebound space of raw sugar is limited. The spot price of domestic sugar is strong, but the high import profit and increasing import volume put pressure on Zhengzhou sugar prices [4][5] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate within a range. In the long term, the sugar price is in a downward cycle, and it is recommended to sell short at high prices [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of the pulp 2509 contract was 5,414 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton or 0.86% from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Arauco coniferous pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of Russian coniferous pulp was 5,360 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton [6] - The import wood pulp spot market price was strong, but the high - price transactions were not smooth. The prices of some grades of coniferous, broad - leaf, and other pulps increased, but the downstream procurement volume did not increase significantly [6] Market Analysis - The pulp price rebounded in the short term due to the anti - involution policy, but the supply pressure remains in the second half of the year, and the demand improvement is limited [7] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, the pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the end of macro - stimulation [8]

Core Insights - The main viewpoint of the article indicates that soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures have retraced all gains made during the week due to a directive from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs to continue promoting the reduction of soybean meal usage [1] Group 1 - Soybean meal futures experienced a decline following the announcement from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs [1] - The market is now questioning how to position itself for future trading in light of this development [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report 2.1 Fats and Oils - Palm oil: Due to concerns about production growth and export slowdown, the Malaysian crude palm oil futures may enter a shock - adjustment phase. Monitor the resistance at 4,350 ringgit. The domestic palm oil futures are expected to oscillate horizontally in the range of 9,000 - 9,100 yuan. Be wary of the risk of a pull - back if the Malaysian palm oil encounters resistance at high levels [1]. - Soybean oil: Uncertainties in US trade relations and expectations of a large US soybean harvest have a negative impact on CBOT soybeans and, in turn, CBOT soybean oil. However, the expected good performance of BMD palm oil due to pre - festival stocking may boost CBOT soybean oil. In the long - term, CBOT soybean oil may rise, while it is currently in a stagnant adjustment phase. In the domestic market, the spot market has slow sales, and the basis quotes are under pressure in the short - term but may be boosted in August [1]. 2.2 Sugar - Brazil's sugar production decline in the second half of June exceeded expectations. If the sugar - to - ethanol ratio is adjusted downward, Brazil's sugar production may not meet expectations. The short - term bottom of raw sugar prices may appear, but a bearish view is maintained overall considering the increasing production pattern. In the domestic market, low inventory supports Guangxi's spot prices, while the entry of processed sugar and expected increase in imports lead to a marginally looser supply - demand situation, suggesting a bearish view after rebounds [4]. 2.3 Corn - In the short - term, the market sentiment has recovered. Supply shortages support the futures price rebound, but the upside is limited. The policy auctions should be closely monitored. In the medium - term, tight supply, low imports, and increasing breeding consumption will support corn prices [7]. 2.4 Cotton - In the short - term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate at high levels. Although the downstream industry is still weak, the rising cotton prices have driven up yarn prices. The supply of old cotton after the price increase has put some pressure on the market, but the tight inventory situation is difficult to resolve before the new cotton is on the market. In the long - term, cotton prices may face pressure after the new cotton is listed [9]. 2.5 Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient, but high - temperature weather has reduced the egg production rate and egg weight, resulting in a shortage of large - sized eggs. The peak - season demand for eggs is starting, and the trading volume is increasing. Egg prices are expected to rise slightly this week and then stabilize [11]. 2.6 Meal - US soybeans are in a bottom - oscillating phase, supported by expected dry weather in August and improved trade expectations. In the domestic market, soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is oscillating at a low level. The supply will remain high in the short - term, but the continuity of soybean arrivals after October is uncertain, limiting the basis decline. The market sentiment is suppressed by the government's promotion of soybean meal substitution. It is recommended to wait and see [14]. 2.7 Pigs - The current supply - demand situation of pigs is weak. The recent rise in the futures price is mainly driven by market sentiment. Although there may be a short - term boost in trading volume at the end and beginning of the month, the supply is expected to recover. Spot prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the upside of the near - term 09 contract is limited. The far - term contracts are more affected by policies, and it is not advisable to short blindly, but attention should be paid to the impact of hedging funds [16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fats and Oils - **Price Changes**: On July 23, the price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan to 8,310 yuan, and the futures price (Y2509) decreased by 2 yuan to 8,074 yuan. The basis decreased by 18 yuan to 236 yuan. The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong remained unchanged at 9,000 yuan, and the futures price (P2509) increased by 68 yuan to 8,994 yuan. The basis decreased by 68 yuan to 6 yuan. The price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 100 yuan to 9,550 yuan, and the futures price (OI509) decreased by 21 yuan to 9,456 yuan. The basis decreased by 79 yuan to 94 yuan [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The 09 - 01 spread of soybean oil decreased by 4 yuan to 44 yuan, the 09 - 01 spread of palm oil decreased by 4 yuan to 20 yuan, and the 09 - 01 spread of rapeseed oil decreased by 13 yuan to 53 yuan. The spot soybean - palm oil spread decreased by 20 yuan to - 690 yuan, and the 2509 soybean - palm oil spread decreased by 70 yuan to - 920 yuan. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 80 yuan to 1,240 yuan, and the 2509 rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 19 yuan to 1,382 yuan [1]. 3.2 Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 increased by 3 yuan to 5,656 yuan/ton, and the price of sugar 2509 increased by 11 yuan to 5,834 yuan/ton. The price of ICE raw sugar increased by 0.01 cents to 16.27 cents/pound. The 1 - 9 spread decreased by 8 yuan to - 178 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning remained unchanged at 6,050 yuan/ton, and the price in Kunming increased by 40 yuan to 5,920 yuan/ton. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) and Nanning decreased by 22 yuan to - 1,590 yuan/ton, and the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (outside quota) and Nanning decreased by 28 yuan to - 385 yuan/ton [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production reached 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 119.89 million tons compared to the previous period, with a growth rate of 12.03%. The cumulative national sugar sales reached 811.38 million tons, an increase of 152.10 million tons, with a growth rate of 23.07%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi reached 646.50 million tons, an increase of 28.36 million tons, with a growth rate of 4.59%. The monthly sugar sales in Guangxi were 51.00 million tons, a decrease of 1.72 million tons, with a decline rate of 3.26%. The cumulative national sugar sales rate was 72.59%, an increase of 6.42 percentage points, with a growth rate of 9.70% [3]. 3.3 Corn - **Corn**: The price of corn 2509 at Jinzhou Port decreased by 1 yuan to 2,321 yuan, and the basis increased by 1 yuan to 39 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 2 yuan to 74 yuan. The price of bulk grain in Shekou decreased by 10 yuan to 2,430 yuan. The north - south trade profit decreased by 10 yuan to - 11 yuan. The CIF price remained unchanged at 1,994 yuan, and the import profit decreased by 10 yuan to 436 yuan [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2509 increased by 7 yuan to 2,675 yuan. The spot price in Changchun remained unchanged at 2,680 yuan, and the spot price in Weifang remained unchanged at 2,900 yuan. The basis decreased by 7 yuan to 5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 6 yuan to 49 yuan [7]. 3.4 Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2509 decreased by 45 yuan to 14,180 yuan/ton, and the price of cotton 2601 increased by 35 yuan to 14,065 yuan/ton. The price of ICE US cotton increased by 0.03 cents to 68.29 cents/pound. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 80 yuan to 115 yuan. The number of positions in the main contract decreased by 15,967 to 538,200, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 54 to 9,382 [9]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton (3128B) decreased by 5 yuan to 15,411 yuan, and the CC Index (3128B) decreased by 6 yuan to 15,543 yuan. The FC Index (M: 1%) increased by 35 yuan to 13,728 yuan/ton [9]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory decreased by 28.74 million tons to 254.24 million tons, and industrial inventory decreased by 2.09 million tons to 88.21 million tons. The import volume decreased by 1 million tons to 3 million tons. The inventory in the bonded area decreased by 0.9 million tons to 32.7 million tons. The inventory days of yarn increased by 1.13 days to 28.36 days, and the inventory days of grey cloth increased by 0.63 days to 37.24 days [9]. 3.5 Eggs - **Price Changes**: The price of the egg 09 contract increased by 16 yuan to 3,637 yuan/500KG, and the price of the egg 08 contract increased by 39 yuan to 3,613 yuan/500KG. The price in the egg - producing area increased by 0.1 yuan to 3.33 yuan/jin. The basis increased by 82 yuan to - 305 yuan/500KG, and the 9 - 8 spread decreased by 23 yuan to 24 yuan [11]. - **Related Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicken chicks decreased by 0.02 yuan to 3.88 yuan/feather, and the price of culled hens increased by 0.2 yuan to 4.80 yuan/jin. The egg - to - feed ratio increased by 0.14 to 2.25, and the breeding profit increased by 8.52 yuan to - 32.98 yuan/feather [11]. 3.6 Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2,920 yuan, and the futures price (M2509) increased by 9 yuan to 3,095 yuan. The basis decreased by 9 yuan to - 175 yuan. The spot basis quote in Jiangsu was m2509 - 190. The import crushing profit for Brazilian September shipments increased by 4 yuan to 110 yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 170 to 41,446 [14]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan to 2,660 yuan, and the futures price (RM2509) increased by 22 yuan to 2,758 yuan. The basis decreased by 12 yuan to - 98 yuan. The spot basis quote in Guangdong was rm09 - 130. The import crushing profit for Canadian November shipments increased by 7 yuan to 303 yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 0 [14]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of soybeans in Harbin remained unchanged at 3,960 yuan, and the futures price of the main soybean contract decreased by 15 yuan to 4,217 yuan. The basis increased by 15 yuan to - 257 yuan. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3,660 yuan, and the futures price of the main soybean contract (No. 2) increased by 1 yuan to 3,724 yuan. The basis decreased by 1 yuan to - 64 yuan. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 162 to 14,522 [14]. - **Spreads**: The 09 - 01 spread of soybean meal decreased by 3 yuan to - 21 yuan, and the 09 - 01 spread of rapeseed meal increased by 15 yuan to 314 yuan. The oil - to - meal ratio of the spot decreased by 0.007 to 2.85, and the oil - to - meal ratio of the main contract decreased by 0.008 to 2.61. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased by 10 yuan to 260 yuan, and the 2509 spread decreased by 13 yuan to 337 yuan [14]. 3.7 Pigs - **Futures Market**: The price of the main pig contract decreased by 310 yuan to - 290 yuan. The price of the 2511 contract increased by 340 yuan to 14,300 yuan, and the price of the 2509 contract increased by 210 yuan to 14,590 yuan. The 9 - 11 spread decreased by 130 yuan to 290 yuan. The number of positions in the main contract increased by 7,482 to 67,303, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 284 [16]. - **Spot Market**: The price of pigs in Henan decreased by 100 yuan to 14,300 yuan/ton, and the price in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan to 14,450 yuan/ton. The price in Sichuan decreased by 50 yuan to 13,650 yuan/ton, and the price in Liaoning decreased by 150 yuan to 14,050 yuan/ton. The price in Guangdong decreased by 200 yuan to 15,740 yuan/ton, and the price in Hunan decreased by 100 yuan to 14,110 yuan/ton. The price in Hebei decreased by 150 yuan to 14,350 yuan/ton [16]. - **Industry Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume decreased by 37 to 133,568, the weekly price of white - striped pigs decreased by 0.2 yuan to 20.63 yuan, the weekly price of piglets remained unchanged at 26.00 yuan/kg, and the weekly price of sows remained unchanged at 32.52 yuan/kg. The weekly average slaughter weight decreased by 0.2 kg to 128.83 kg. The weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 43 yuan to 91 yuan/head, and the weekly profit of purchasing piglets for breeding decreased by 50.3 yuan to - 19 yuan/head. The monthly number of reproductive sows increased by 40,000 to 4,042 million [16].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-07-24 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2680至2740区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕冲高回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期进入旺季，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期维持区间震荡。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜 粕，但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2640，基差-118，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存1.51万吨，上周0.46万吨，周环比增加228%，去年同期3.6万吨，同比减 少58.06%。偏多 4.盘 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean and soybean meal markets are facing a complex situation with both bullish and bearish factors. The overall trend is expected to be range - bound. The domestic soybean import cost may be difficult to decline before the Sino - US soybean trade improves [2]. - The palm oil market is affected by multiple factors such as bio - diesel policies and production levels. It is expected to be volatile, with potential upside in the fourth quarter but limited by various negative factors [2][9]. - The domestic sugar market may see a downward trend in the future due to potential import pressure, assuming no significant rebound in the external market [12]. - The cotton market has limited upside potential due to potential issuance of import quotas and general downstream consumption [15]. - The egg market lacks a clear trend in the short - term, and for post - festival contracts, short - selling opportunities after rebounds can be considered [18]. - The pig market has high - valued futures but faces risks such as over - hedging and potential supply pressure after the seasonal rebound [21]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean/M粕类 - **Market Situation**: Wednesday night, US soybean and soybean meal futures declined. The good North American weather restricts the upside, but low valuation, good old - crop sales, and biodiesel policies support demand. The domestic soybean import cost is rising slightly due to a single supply source. The domestic soybean meal market is characterized by low valuation, high short - term supply, active downstream pick - up, and cost support for 9 - 1 month soybean purchases [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the soybean meal market having both bullish and bearish factors, it is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, while waiting for progress on Sino - US tariffs and new supply - side drivers [4]. Fats and Oils - **Important Information**: Malaysian palm oil export data shows different trends in different periods in June, and production increased in July. As of July 15, 2025, the total vegetable oil inventory in Indian ports increased by 18% in half a month. The domestic palm oil market was volatile on Wednesday, and the net long positions of foreign capital in the three major fats and oils decreased slightly [6][7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The palm oil market is expected to be volatile. There is a potential for price increase in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy, but the upside is limited by factors such as annual - level production increase expectations and uncertain RVO rules [9]. Sugar - **Key Information**: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to fluctuate. The 9 - month contract of Zheng sugar closed at 5834 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The import of syrup and premixed powder decreased year - on - year in 2025 [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The domestic sugar market may see a downward trend in the future due to potential import pressure, assuming no significant rebound in the external market [12]. Cotton - **Key Information**: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to fluctuate. The 9 - month contract of Zheng cotton closed at 14180 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The national new cotton yield per mu in 2025 is expected to increase by 2.5% [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Although the Zhengzhou cotton price has rebounded, the downstream consumption is average, and the potential issuance of import quotas in July - August is a negative factor for cotton prices [15]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: The national egg price mainly increased. The main production area's average price rose to 3.31 yuan/jin. The egg market trading was stable, and the egg price is expected to be mostly stable with a few increases [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term egg market lacks a clear trend and is mainly guided by the spot price. For post - festival contracts, short - selling opportunities after rebounds can be considered [18]. Pigs - **Spot Information**: The domestic pig price mainly declined. The production side's sales were active, but the consumption side was weak, and the pig price is expected to continue to be weak [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures market is highly valued, but there are risks such as over - hedging and potential supply pressure after the seasonal rebound [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Sideways [1] - Cotton: Sideways [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sugar: Affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi were unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, which may lead to pests and diseases and requires early prevention. Internationally, attention should continue to be paid to the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Cotton: Most cotton - growing areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days earlier than in previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will continue to be high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, attention should be paid to the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Data Overview 1. Foreign Market Quotes - US sugar (USD): On July 21, 2025, it was 16.36, and on July 22, 2025, it was 16.26, a decrease of 0.61% [3]. - US cotton (USD): On July 21, 2025, it was 68.09, and on July 22, 2025, it was 68.26, an increase of 0.25% [3]. 2. Spot Prices - Sugar (Nanning): On July 21, 2025, it was 6060.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 6050.0, a decrease of 0.17% [3]. - Sugar (Kunming): On July 21, 2025, it was 5920.0, and on July 22, 2025, it remained 5920.0, with a 0.00% change [3]. - Cotton Index 328: On July 21, 2025, it was 3281, and on July 22, 2025, it was 3280, a decrease of 0.26% [3]. - Cotton (Xinjiang): On July 21, 2025, it was 15400.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 15500.0, an increase of 0.65% [3]. 3. Spread Overview - SR01 - 05: On July 21, 2025, it was 54.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 49.0, a decrease of 9.26% [3]. - SR05 - 09: On July 21, 2025, it was - 223.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was - 219.0, a decrease of 1.79% [3]. - SR09 - 01: On July 21, 2025, it was 169.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 170.0, an increase of 0.59% [3]. - CF01 - 05: On July 21, 2025, it was 45.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 40.0, a decrease of 11.11% [3]. - CF05 - 09: On July 21, 2025, it was - 240.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was - 235.0, a decrease of 2.08% [3]. - CF09 - 01: On July 21, 2025, it was 195.0, and on July 22, 2025, it remained 195.0, with a 0.00% change [3]. - Sugar 01 basis: On July 21, 2025, it was 250.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 267.0, an increase of 6.80% [3]. - Sugar 05 basis: On July 21, 2025, it was 304.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 316.0, an increase of 3.95% [3]. - Sugar 09 basis: On July 21, 2025, it was 81.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 97.0, an increase of 19.75% [3]. - Cotton 01 basis: On July 21, 2025, it was 1599.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 1519.0, a decrease of 5.00% [3]. - Cotton 05 basis: On July 21, 2025, it was 1644.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 1559.0, a decrease of 5.17% [3]. - Cotton 09 basis: On July 21, 2025, it was 1404.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 1324.0, a decrease of 5.70% [3]. 4. Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA: On July 21, 2025, it was 79.45, and on July 22, 2025, it was 78.65, a decrease of 1.01% [3]. 5. Profit Margins - Sugar import profit: On July 21, 2025, it was 1613.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 1630.0, an increase of 1.05% [3]. 6. Options - SR509C5800: Implied volatility is 0.0871, and the futures underlying is SR509, with a historical volatility of 7.03 [3]. - SR509P5800: Implied volatility is 0.0845 [3]. - CF509C14200: Implied volatility is 0.1357, and the futures underlying is CF509, with a historical volatility of 8.59 [3]. - CF509P14200: Implied volatility is 0.1357 [3]. 7. Warehouse Receipts (sheets) - Sugar: On July 21, 2025, it was 21437.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 21359.0, a decrease of 0.36% [3]. - Cotton: On July 21, 2025, it was 9501.0, and on July 22, 2025, it was 9436.0, a decrease of 0.68% [3]. Company Information - Cinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It is one of the large - scale, standardized and high - reputation futures companies in China. It is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange, an observer of the China Securities Association, and an observer member of the Asset Management Association of China [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of peanuts remains tight, but downstream demand is still weak, so short - term peanut prices are relatively weak. Peanut oil spot prices are stable, and peanut meal prices have been stable recently. Oil mills' theoretical profit from peanut pressing is acceptable. Peanut 10 futures are in a narrow - range shock, and it is expected that the planting area will increase and the planting cost will decrease, so Peanut 10 will continue to fluctuate in a narrow range [5][8][9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Data - **Futures盘面**: PK604 closed at 8026, up 8 (0.10%), with a trading volume of 29 (up 7.41%) and an open interest of 195 (up 4.28%); PK510 closed at 8142, up 2 (0.02%), with a trading volume of 39,891 (down 42.72%) and an open interest of 95,829 (up 1.04%); PK601 closed at 7990, down 6 (- 0.08%), with a trading volume of 1,820 (down 48.00%) and an open interest of 9,762 (up 5.74%) [3] - **Spot and Basis**: In the spot market, the price of peanuts in Henan Nanyang was 9000, down 200; in Shandong Jining and Linyi, it was 8600, unchanged. The price of peanut meal in Rizhao was 3300, unchanged, and the price of soybean meal in Rizhao was 2920, up 20. The price of peanut oil was 15000, unchanged, and the price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao was 8200, down 20. The basis for Henan Nanyang was 858, and for Shandong Jining and Linyi was 458. The price difference between soybean meal and peanut meal was 1, and the price difference between peanut oil and soybean oil was 6800. The import price of Sudanese peanuts was 8300, unchanged [3] - **Price Difference**: The price difference between PK01 - PK04 was - 36, down 14; between PK04 - PK10 was - 116, up 6; between PK10 - PK01 was 152, up 8 [3] 2. Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China were stable. In Northeast China, the price of 308 general peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.4 yuan/jin, and in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.5 yuan/jin, both unchanged from the previous day. In Henan, the price of Baisha general peanuts was 4.4 - 4.50 yuan/jin, unchanged. The price in Junan, Shandong was 4.1 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin. The price of imported Sudanese refined peanuts was 8300 yuan/ton, unchanged. Most peanut oil mills stopped purchasing today, with the mainstream transaction price at 7650 - 7700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost - recovery price of oil mills at 8110 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil were stable [5] - In the by - product market, the spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao was strong, at 2910 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The unit - protein price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal was relatively high, and short - term peanut meal was weak, with the 48 - protein peanut meal quoted at 3250 yuan/ton [8] 3. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Peanut 10 futures are in a high - level shock, and short - term investors are advised to wait and see [10] - **Monthly Spread**: For the spread between Peanut 10 and 1, investors should mainly conduct reverse arbitrage at low levels [11] - **Options**: Sell pk510 - C - 8800 [12] 4. Related Attachments - The report provides six charts, including the spot price of peanuts in Shandong, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between Peanut 10 - 1 contracts, and the spread between Peanut 1 - 4 contracts [15][20][21]