Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of SHFE rubber (RU) 2605 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is volatile and weak, and the reference view is volatile and weak. The short - term view of synthetic rubber (BR) 2605 is volatile and strong, the medium - term view is volatile and strong, the intraday view is volatile and weak, and the reference view is volatile and weak [1]. - Due to the reduction of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the sharp decline of international crude oil futures prices, and the weakening of the bullish atmosphere of energy - chemical commodities, along with inflation expectations and the possible end of the global central bank interest - rate cut cycle, the liquidity tightening expectation is strengthened. Coupled with the approaching of a new rubber - tapping period, it is expected that SHFE rubber and synthetic rubber will maintain a volatile and weak trend on Tuesday [5][7]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs SHFE Rubber (RU) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: volatile and weak; Reference: volatile and weak [1]. - **Core Logic**: After Trump's statement on the possible end of the war with Iran, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East cooled rapidly, the international crude oil prices dropped significantly, weakening the bullish atmosphere of energy - chemical commodities. Rising oil prices led to inflation expectations and a possible end of the global central bank interest - rate cut cycle, strengthening the expectation of liquidity tightening. With a new rubber - tapping period approaching, the SHFE rubber 2605 contract showed a volatile and weak trend on Monday night and is expected to maintain this trend on Tuesday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: volatile and strong; Medium - term: volatile and strong; Intraday: volatile and weak; Reference: volatile and weak [1]. - **Core Logic**: Similar to SHFE rubber, due to the reduction of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the sharp decline of international crude oil prices, and the weakening of the bullish atmosphere of energy - chemical commodities, along with inflation expectations and the possible end of the global central bank interest - rate cut cycle, the liquidity tightening expectation is strengthened. The synthetic rubber 2605 contract showed a high - level correction on Monday night and is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend on Tuesday [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market is that prices are fluctuating and consolidating. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic oil and fat supply is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - **Imported soybean inventory**: Information presented in a graph showing trends from 2015 - 2025 [6][8] - **Soybean oil inventory**: Information presented in a graph showing trends from 2015 - 2025 [7][8] - **Soybean meal inventory**: Information presented in a graph showing trends from 2015 - 2025 [9][10] - **Oil mill soybean crushing**: Information presented in a graph showing trends from 2015 - 2025 [11][12] - **Palm oil inventory**: Information presented in a graph showing trends from 2015 - 2025 [17][18] - **Rapeseed oil inventory**: Information presented in a graph showing trends from 2015 - 2025 [19][20] - **Rapeseed inventory**: Information presented in a graph showing trends from 2015 - 2025 [21][22] - **Domestic total oil and fat inventory**: Information presented in a graph showing trends from 2015 - 2019 [23][24] Demand - **Soybean oil apparent consumption**: Information presented in a graph showing trends from 2015 - 2025 [13][14] - **Soybean meal apparent consumption**: Information presented in a graph showing trends from 2015 - 2025 [15][16] Daily Views Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January has increased by 29% month - on - month, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. Neutral [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 9100, the basis is 428, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Bullish [2] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. Bearish [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. Bullish [2] - **Main positions**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract decreased. Bullish [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [2] Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. Neutral [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9750, the basis is 30, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Neutral [3] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 2200 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 46%. Bearish [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. Bullish [3] - **Main positions**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract decreased. Bearish [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2605 will fluctuate in the range of 9500 - 9900 [3] Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. Neutral [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10520, the basis is 566, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Bullish [4] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. Bullish [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. Bullish [4] - **Main positions**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract increased. Bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will fluctuate in the range of 9800 - 10200 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. The palm oil tremor season [5] - **利空**: The oil and fat prices are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic oil and fat inventory is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - **Main logic**: The global oil and fat fundamentals are relatively loose [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2026-3-10） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：主产地煤矿生产基本恢复正常水平，市场整体供应较为充足。部分前期因库存压力下调报 价的煤矿，目前报价暂稳，而部分库存仍有累积的煤矿，为促进出货，对个别非核心煤种价格仍有小幅 让利空间。近期期货价格受国际冲突影响涨幅明显，线上竞拍市场流拍现象有所减少，且煤矿降完价之 后出货较前期有所好转；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1175，基差15；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存820万吨，港口库存258万吨，独立焦企库存893万吨，总样本库存1971万吨，较上 周减少243万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净多，多减；偏多 6、预期：下游焦炭首轮 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of urea are neutral, with high daily production and supply pressure at historical highs. Industrial demand is weak but has recovery expectations, and agricultural demand has entered a phased end. The inventory has increased, and the external price has risen, widening the export price difference. The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4]. - The positive factors for urea are that agricultural demand is gradually entering the peak season and overseas prices are continuously strengthening. The negative factor is that the daily production is at a historical high. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are at a high level year - on - year. After the Spring Festival, with the restart of some natural gas plants, the daily production is expected to remain high, and the overall supply pressure is still at a historical high. Industrial demand is weak but has recovery expectations, with the operating rate of compound fertilizers rising and that of melamine falling. Agricultural phased demand has temporarily ended, and the comprehensive inventory has increased. The external price has continued to rise due to geopolitical factors, widening the export price difference. The current spot price of the delivery product is 1860 (+10) [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 45, and the premium/discount ratio is - 2.4%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 128.8 million tons (-6.2), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the UR main contract has decreased, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. With high daily production year - on - year, differentiated industrial demand, and the peak of phased agricultural demand, and inventory accumulation, the UR is expected to fluctuate today [4]. Spot and Futures Market | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1860 | 10 | 05 Contract | 1905 | 75 | Warehouse Receipt | 2860 | 0 | | Shandong Spot | 1880 | 0 | Basis | - 45 | - 65 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 128.8 | 0 | | Henan Spot | 1860 | 84 | UR01 | 1883 | 64 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 109.8 | 0 | | FOB China | 3897 | | UR05 | 1905 | 75 | UR Port Inventory | 19.0 | 0 | | | | | UR09 | 1920 | 77 | | | | [6] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]

大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2026-3-10 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润小幅修复，冷修不及预期，供给低位；地产拖累下游深加工订单偏弱， 库存同期历史高位；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货976元/吨，FG2605收盘价为1104元/吨，基差为-128元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存7963.70万重量箱，较前一周增加4.77%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏空运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 利空： 1、地产终端需求依然疲弱，玻璃深加工企业订单数量历史同期低位。 2、深加工行业资金 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel price is expected to continue the trend of oscillating and stabilizing, and the demand performance should be monitored [3] - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2605 are oscillating, oscillating, and oscillating weakly respectively, and attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating weakly. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, with the core logic being that industrial contradictions remain to be resolved and steel prices continue to oscillate [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The commodity sentiment is warm, and steel prices are oscillating upwards. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. Short - process steel mills are resuming production, and rebar production is rising from a low level with further growth potential. The inventory level is high, increasing the supply pressure [3] - Rebar demand is continuously recovering, with high - frequency indicators rising from a low level but still at a relatively low position. The policy end is not beyond expectations, and the improvement of downstream industries needs to be tracked [3] - The supply and demand of rebar are seasonally rising, but industrial contradictions are not alleviated. The fundamentals remain relatively weak, and steel prices are under pressure. The relatively favorable factor is cost support [3]

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2026-03-10 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 甲醇 2605 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡偏弱 | 地缘风险降温，甲醇震荡偏弱 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | 备注： 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡偏强 参考观点：震荡偏弱 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 | 每 日 期 | | 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy in the medium - and long - term. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips as there is certain excess return in using stock index as a long - position substitute [2] - For treasury bond futures, the short - term trend is unclear, so it is recommended to wait and see. In the medium - and long - term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge at high prices for T and TL contracts [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On March 9, A - share four major stock indexes adjusted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.67%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.74%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.64%, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 1.69%. Market trading volume was 26,706 billion yuan, an increase of 4,513 billion yuan from the previous day. Coal, comprehensive, and computer sectors performed well, while communication, transportation, and beauty care sectors performed poorly. From the perspective of market strength, IM>IF>IC>IH. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1,422/102/3,960. Net inflows of institutional, main force, large - scale, and retail investors' funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 112, - 253, 55, and 310 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 201, - 119, +214, and +105 billion yuan respectively [2] - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts were 73.67, 59.48, 35.26, and 4.99 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 7.74%, - 6.19%, - 6.58%, and - 1.45% respectively. The three - year historical quantiles were 54%, 45%, 17%, and 35% respectively [2] - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium - and long - term, maintain the view of going long on the economy. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [2] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On March 9, treasury bond futures showed a weak trend. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0.04%, TF fell 0.14%, T fell 0.21%, and TL fell 1.11% [2] - **Cash Bonds**: For the current active 2606 contract, the CTD bond of the 2 - year treasury bond futures was 250024.IB, with a yield change of +1.75bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.019, and an IRR of 1.38%; for the 5 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 250014.IB, with a yield change of +2.8bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.012, and an IRR of 1.4%; for the 10 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 250025.IB, with a yield change of +2.65bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.004, and an IRR of 1.46%; for the 30 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 210014.IB, with a yield change of +6bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.08, and an IRR of 1.22% [2] - **Funding Situation**: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 485 billion yuan and withdrew 1,350 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 865 billion yuan [2] - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term trend is unclear, so it is recommended to wait and see. In the medium - and long - term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge at high prices for T and TL contracts [2] 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that at the beginning of March, the prosperity of various sectors declined slightly [8]

Group 1: Hot News - Trump said the war between the US and Iran may end soon and the progress is much faster than expected. He also considered taking over the Strait of Hormuz [2] - G7 finance ministers discussed how to deal with the soaring oil prices caused by the war between the US, Israel and Iran and decided not to release strategic oil reserves for the time being [2] - China's CPI in February increased by 1.3% year-on-year, the highest in nearly three years, and the core CPI increased by 1.8%. The PPI decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing for three consecutive months [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted trading limits and transaction fees for fuel oil futures, and adjusted the daily price limits and trading margins for petroleum asphalt and butadiene rubber futures. The Shanghai International Energy Exchange also adjusted trading limits, daily price limits, trading margins and transaction fees for crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures [3] - Four Chinese nickel processing plants in Indonesia announced temporary shutdowns after a fatal landslide at a nickel waste yard in February [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on: urea, lithium carbonate, fuel oil, PP, PVC [4] - Night session performance: Non-metallic building materials rose 2.05%, precious metals rose 30.46%, oilseeds rose 8.01%, coal, coke and steel ore rose 9.18%, energy rose 6.43%, chemicals rose 12.22%, grains rose 1.11%, agricultural and sideline products rose 2.75%, soft commodities rose 2.70%, and non-ferrous metals rose 25.08% [4][5] Group 3: Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days [6] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.67% daily, 1.59% monthly, and rose 3.22% annually. Other major indices also showed different trends [7] - Fixed income: 10-year, 5-year and 2-year treasury bond futures showed different changes in daily, monthly and annual terms [7] - Commodities: The CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper and Wind commodity index showed different trends [7] - Others: The US dollar index and CBOE volatility showed different changes [7] Group 5: Stock Market Risk Preference and Commodity Trends - The chart shows the trends of major commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME copper, etc. [8]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期：2026/3/10 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1.国内商品期市收盘多数上涨，航运、能源品、化工品期货涨幅居前，集运指数 (欧线)、原油、燃油、低硫燃料油、沥青、纯苯、苯乙烯、丁二烯橡胶等多个品 种涨停。基本金属、贵金属多数下跌，沪锡、钯金跌超 2%。 2. 美油主力合约收跌 6.4%，报 85.08 美 ...