Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: Lack of drivers, focus on short - term support [2] - Soybean oil: US soybeans decline, slow regression of soybean - palm oil spread [2] - Soybean meal: Trade sentiment fluctuates, stay on the sidelines [2] - Soybean: Range - bound [2] - Corn: Short - term bullish [2] - Sugar: Weak operation [2] - Cotton: Pay attention to external market impacts [2] - Eggs: In an adjustment phase [2] - Pigs: Inventory accumulation continues, wait for the release of spot contradictions [2] - Peanuts: Focus on the actions of oil mills [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Palm oil's day - session closing price rose 1.65%, night - session fell 0.60%; soybean oil's day - session rose 0.61%, night - session fell 0.12%. Spot prices of palm oil in Guangdong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while that of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong increased by 10 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From November 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield, oil extraction rate, and production increased compared to the same period last month. Argentina's oilseed workers reached a wage agreement with soybean processing enterprises, avoiding a strike [5][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both 0 [8]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking**: DCE soybean 2601's day - session rose 1.69%, night - session rose 0.19%; DCE soybean meal 2601's day - session rose 0.95%, night - session fell 0.39%. Spot prices of soybean meal in different regions had slight changes [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On November 6, CBOT soybeans fell due to limited Chinese demand. Citi expects China to resume large - scale purchases of US soybeans in the long run [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal and soybean trend intensities are both 0 [12]. Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: Corn's C2601 day - session rose 0.75%, night - session rose 0.09%; C2603 day - session rose 0.88%, night - session rose 0.14%. The price of Guangdong Shekou increased by 10 yuan/ton [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn bulk shipping port prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while Guangdong Shekou's increased by 10 yuan/ton [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [17]. Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: Raw sugar price is 14.19 cents/pound, up 0.08. Mainstream spot price is 5730 yuan/ton, up 50 [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's September sugar production increased by 11% year - on - year, but exports decreased. China's September sugar imports were 550,000 tons (+150,000 tons) [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is - 1 [22]. Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: CF2601 day - session fell 0.07%, night - session fell 0.15%; CY2601 day - session rose 0.25%, night - session fell 0.03%. Spot prices of cotton in different regions had slight declines [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading was dull, and ICE cotton futures fell due to events in the US [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [28]. Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Egg 2512 rose 1.93%, egg 2601 rose 1.23%. Spot prices in different regions were stable or had slight changes [30]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [30]. Pigs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Henan's spot price is 11,980 yuan/ton, up 100; Sichuan's is 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangdong's is 12,460 yuan/ton, down 100 [32]. - **Market Information**: In September, the national feed production was 30.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [33]. - **Trend Intensity**: Pig trend intensity is 0 [34]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: PK601 fell 0.21%, PK603 fell 0.33%. Spot prices of peanuts in different regions had declines or were stable [37]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In some peanut - producing areas, the supply was low, trading was inactive, and prices were stable or weak [38]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [39].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 11 月 7 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 核心逻辑：尽管财政部宣布自 11 月 10 日起对美豆加征关税税率调整为 13%，但这一税率仍远高于巴 西大豆的 3%，使得美豆在价格上缺乏竞争优势。市场对美豆的出口预期因此趋于理性。国内贸易商 前期高价合同普遍解套，整体以获利了结和滚动拿货为主，追涨动能不足。目前豆粕市场正从 "政 策情绪驱动" 向 "基本面现实" 回归。虽然油厂因压榨利润亏损而挺价意愿较强，但国内豆粕库 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑 ...

Core Insights - The Bloomberg Grain Index declined by 2.37%, closing at 30.2363 points, with a notable drop after the market opened [1] - CBOT corn futures fell by 1.49%, settling at $4.2875 per bushel [1] - CBOT wheat futures experienced a significant decrease of 3.38%, closing at $5.36 per bushel [1] - CBOT soybean futures dropped by 2.31%, ending at $11.08 per bushel, while soybean meal futures fell by 3.69% and soybean oil futures decreased by 0.85% [1] - CBOT lean hog futures declined by 1.92%, live cattle futures fell by 0.78%, and feeder cattle futures decreased by 1.32% [1]

Group 1 - Chicago futures market saw a significant decline in corn, wheat, and soybean prices on November 6, with corn down 1.49% to $4.29 per bushel, wheat down 3.47% to $5.36 per bushel, and soybean down 2.36% to $11.08 per bushel [1] - The drop in agricultural prices is attributed to ongoing debates regarding Trump's tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-China trade agreement, which has led to a decline in demand outlook for U.S. agricultural products [1] - The Supreme Court's recent oral arguments have raised questions about the legality of Trump's tariffs, with the probability of the court supporting these tariffs dropping to 25% according to prediction platform Polymarket [1] Group 2 - Global grain supply is expected to be abundant, with record harvests anticipated for wheat, corn, and soybeans in the Southern Hemisphere [2] - Favorable weather conditions in Brazil and Paraguay, along with dry weather in Argentina, are expected to support crop growth and sowing activities, with soybean planting in Mato Grosso and Parana expected to be completed by November 20 [2]

Core Insights - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) saw a decline in agricultural futures across the board on November 6, with significant drops in soybean, corn, and wheat futures prices [1]. Group 1: Soybean Futures - Soybean futures fell by 2.31%, closing at 1108.00 cents per bushel [1]. Group 2: Corn Futures - Corn futures decreased by 1.49%, ending at 428.75 cents per bushel [1]. Group 3: Wheat Futures - Wheat futures experienced the largest decline, dropping by 3.38% to close at 536.00 cents per bushel [1].

Group 1 - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures saw a majority decline in closing prices on November 6, with raw sugar futures increasing by 0.78% to 14.22 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures decreased by 1.15% to 64.48 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures fell by 2.97% to $6,277.00 per ton [1] - Coffee futures dropped by 3.89% to 397.50 cents per pound [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent surge in U.S. soybean futures prices, driven by expectations of increased purchases from China, reaching a 15-month high at over 1100 cents per bushel [1][2] - Following the U.S.-China consensus on expanding agricultural trade, U.S. soybean prices have increased by 7.26% since October 25, indicating strong market optimism [2][3] - Despite the positive outlook, U.S. soybeans still face competitive disadvantages due to a 13% tariff, compared to only 3% for Brazilian and Argentine soybeans, limiting their market appeal [3][4] Group 2 - Analysts predict that if China proceeds with soybean purchases, it could significantly reduce U.S. soybean ending stocks for the 2025/2026 season, shifting the market from oversupply to a tighter balance [4] - The U.S. soybean harvest is nearing completion, with an estimated average yield of 53 bushels per acre, resulting in a production forecast of 4.26 billion bushels [5] - Historical data shows a shift in China's soybean import sources, with Brazil surpassing the U.S. as the largest supplier, indicating a long-term trend in sourcing preferences [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural products sector shows mixed trends. Oils and fats are rebounding, corn has broken through and is rising, eggs are continuously strengthening, while some products like红枣 are falling and others are fluctuating [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Palm Oil - **Market Trend**: The palm oil main 2601 contract has strongly rebounded. After the market digested the bearish factors, it had a technical rebound. The bearish factors of high production and inventory in Malaysia in October were gradually digested, and the approaching减产季 provided some support [2]. - **Strategy**: Close short - positions. The support level for the palm oil main 2601 contract is 8562, and the resistance level is 8780 [2]. (2) Corn - **Market Trend**: The corn main 2601 contract has broken through and risen, driven by improved demand. Policy support, farmers' reluctance to sell, reduced wheat substitution, and increased demand from corn starch enterprises have supported the price [3]. - **Strategy**: Go long with a light position. The support level for the main 2601 contract is 2130, and the resistance level is 2145 [3]. (3) Rapeseed Meal - **Market Trend**: The rapeseed meal main 2601 contract has continued to rise, supported by tight supply. High import costs, limited domestic soybean meal price increases, and a halt in rapeseed imports have led to a shortage of raw materials and a decline in rapeseed meal inventory [5]. - **Strategy**: Go long with a light position. The support level for the 2601 contract is 2520, and the resistance level is 2560 [5]. (4) Eggs - **Market Trend**: The egg main 2512 contract has continued to rise, driven by improved demand. Cooling weather is conducive to storage and transportation, and the traditional winter stocking season and increased hen culling have supported the price [7]. - **Strategy**: Continue to go long with a light position. The support level for the main 2512 contract is 3190, and the resistance level is 3250 [7]. (5) Red Dates - **Market Trend**: The red dates main 2601 contract has continued to fall, pressured by new jujube listings and increased inventory. The expected large - scale production reduction has basically failed, and the inventory is much higher than the same period last year [9]. - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions. The support level for the main 2601 contract is 9560, and the resistance level is 9770 [9]. (6) Live Pigs - **Market Trend**: The live pig main 2601 contract has fluctuated narrowly after a previous rebound. Cold weather has boosted consumption, but high inventory has limited the price rebound space [11]. - **Strategy**: Trade short - term. The support level for the main 2601 contract is 11825, and the resistance level is 12055 [11]. (7) Cotton - **Market Trend**: The cotton main 2601 contract has fluctuated narrowly after a sharp rise. The overall supply is abundant, but the inventory in inland areas is being digested, and textile enterprises' inventory pressure is not large [13]. - **Strategy**: Go long with a light position. The support level for the main 2601 contract is 13580, and the resistance level is 13700 [13]. (8) Apples - **Market Trend**: The apple main 2601 contract has fluctuated sharply, with both bullish and bearish factors. The expected low inventory due to low fruit quality and the potential shortage of deliverable goods coexist with the pressure from increased supply of ordinary goods and competition from citrus fruits [16]. - **Strategy**: Trade short - term. The support level for the main 2601 contract is 8886, and the resistance level is 9100 [16]. (9) Sugar - **Market Trend**: The Zhengzhou sugar main 2601 contract has fluctuated narrowly after a sharp fall. The global expected sugar surplus and the upcoming domestic sugar production increase have pressured the price [19]. - **Strategy**: Go short with a light position. The support level for the main 2601 contract is 5426, and the resistance level is 5451 [19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of peanuts is increasing, while downstream demand remains weak. Peanut prices are expected to be relatively stable in the short term. Peanut oil prices are stable, and peanut meal prices have recently stabilized. Oil mills' theoretical profit from peanut pressing is acceptable. The peanut futures will continue to fluctuate at the bottom, and the new - season peanut output is expected to be higher than last year with lower planting costs [3][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Data - **Futures盘面**: PK604 closed at 7862, down 8 (-0.10%), with a trading volume of 9,447 (up 50.38%) and an open interest of 17,046 (up 42.35%); PK510 closed at 8140, up 14 (0.17%), with a trading volume of 26 (up 4.00%) and an open interest of 528 (up 3.94%); PK601 closed at 7788, down 14 (-0.18%), with a trading volume of 55,253 (up 14.43%) and an open interest of 168,130 (up 2.51%) [1] - **Spot and Basis**: In the spot market, the prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 7400, 7800, and 7800 respectively, with no change. The prices of Rizhao peanut meal, Rizhao soybean meal, peanut oil, and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil were 3250, 3050, 14580, and 8310 respectively, with the soybean oil price up 10. The basis for Henan Nanyang was - 388, and for Shandong Jining and Linyi was 12. The price difference between soybean meal and peanut meal was - 3, and the price difference between peanut oil and soybean oil was 6270. The import prices of Sudanese peanuts were 8600 and Senegalese peanuts were 7600, with no change [1] - **Spreads**: The spread of PK01 - PK04 was - 74, down 6; the spread of PK04 - PK10 was - 278, down 22; the spread of PK10 - PK01 was 352, up 28 [1] Second Part: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan have declined, while those in the Northeast have remained stable. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.3 yuan/jin, and in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.3 yuan/jin, both unchanged. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan was 3.5 - 3.7 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin, and in Junan, Shandong was 3.8 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin. Imported peanut prices were stable. The mainstream purchase price of peanut oil mills was 7650 - 7800 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price was 7920 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil were stable. The price of Rizhao soybean meal dropped by 10 yuan/ton to 3020 yuan/ton, and the 48 - protein peanut meal was quoted at 3210 yuan/ton [3][5] Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Single - sided**: Peanuts in contracts 01 and 05 will fluctuate at low levels [8] - **Calendar Spread**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [9] - **Options**: Hold the short position of pk601 - P - 7600 [10] Fourth Part: Related Attachments - There are six figures including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between peanut 10 - 1 contracts, and the spread between peanut 1 - 4 contracts [13][18][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the commodities market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information on supply - demand, and details on capital flows and macro - economic data. It offers insights into the palm oil, soybean, and other related markets both internationally and domestically, as well as key economic indicators from the US and China [1][3][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overnight Market Quotes - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil futures contract 01 was 4122.00, with a previous - day decline of 0.84% and an overnight increase of 0.32% [1]. - Brent crude oil contract 01 on ICE closed at 63.55, down 1.24% from the previous day and 0.86% overnight [1]. - NYMEX WTI crude oil contract 12 closed at 59.64, down 1.31% from the previous day and 0.83% overnight [1]. - CBOT soybean contract 01 closed at 1134.50, up 1.27% from the previous day and 0.58% overnight [1]. - The US dollar index was at 100.17, down 0.04% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Quotes - For DCE palm oil 2601, the spot price in North China was 8740, with a basis of 100 and no change from the previous day [3]. - For DCE soybean oil 2601, the spot price in Shandong was 8350, with a basis of 204 and a decrease of 18 from the previous day [3]. - For DCE soybean meal 2601, the spot price in Shandong was 3030, with a basis of - 10 and an increase of 21 from the previous day [3]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Production Areas Weather - In central Brazil, showers will be active until next week, which is beneficial for crops. In South Rio Grande do Sul/Paraná, there will be regional showers until Thursday, scattered showers on Friday, and regional showers on Saturday. Temperatures will be near to above normal from Wednesday to Thursday and near to below normal from Friday to Saturday [5]. 3.3.2 International Supply - Demand - MPOA estimates that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 31 increased by 12.31% to 2.07 million tons, reaching an eight - year high [7]. - India's palm oil imports in October dropped to a five - year low of 750,000 tons due to increased domestic inventory, weak food industry demand, and a narrowing price gap with other oilseeds [8]. - Analysts expect that as of the week ending October 30, US 2025/26 soybean export sales will net increase by 400,000 - 2 million tons, soybean meal by 50,000 - 450,000 tons, and soybean oil by 5,000 - 25,000 tons [9]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - On November 5, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 12,300 tons, a decrease of 10,900 tons or 47% compared to the previous trading day [13]. - On November 5, the total trading volume of soybean meal at major domestic oil mills was 132,100 tons, an increase of 62,000 tons compared to the previous day [13]. 3.3.4 International Macroeconomic Data - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 62.5%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 37.5% [14]. - The US ADP employment in October was 42,000, higher than the expected 28,000 [14]. 3.3.5 Domestic Macroeconomic News - On November 5, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0901, up 16 points (yuan depreciation) [16]. - On November 5, the People's Bank of China conducted 65.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 492.2 billion yuan due to 557.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase maturities [16]. 3.4 Capital Flows - On November 5, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 4.605 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 132 million yuan, including 1.087 billion yuan for agricultural product futures, 937 million yuan for chemical futures, and 773 million yuan for black - series futures, while metal futures had a net outflow of 2.664 billion yuan. Stock index futures had a net inflow of 4.278 billion yuan, and treasury bond futures had a net outflow of 30 million yuan [20]. 3.5 Arbitrage Tracking No specific information provided in the given content.