1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Volatile. The market sentiment has weakened again, and oils and fats may continue to adjust in the near term. However, due to factors such as the expected increase in overseas production demand, the possibility of a further downward adjustment of US soybean yield, and the strong expectation of a Fed rate cut, there is a high probability that the price of oils and fats will rise again in the medium term [5]. - **Protein Meals**: Volatile. The Fed is about to cut interest rates, and attention should be paid to whether it exceeds expectations. The US soybean yield still has room for downward adjustment, and the progress of sowing in South America is uncertain. With both long and short positions coexisting, US soybeans will move in a volatile manner. Affected by spot inventory accumulation and weak sentiment, the protein meal futures price is testing the support at the lower edge of the range, and the basis fluctuates with the spot. It is recommended to hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips. Oil mills are advised to sell hedges on rallies, and downstream enterprises are advised to buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips [5]. - **Corn/Starch**: Volatile and weak in the short term, with a long - term outlook of short - term bearish and long - term bullish. In the short term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds. For arbitrage, consider reverse arbitrage opportunities, with the core logic being to trade the pressure of new grain listing and the valuation correction after the selling pressure is largely released [7]. - **Hogs**: Volatile. As the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays approach, festival demand may gradually start, but the hog supply in September is abundant, and the weight inventory is higher than the same period last year. Both supply and demand of hogs are increasing, and the spot price is expected to move in a volatile manner. From a futures perspective, hogs are still in the period of high - capacity realization in the fourth quarter. After the National Day, hog prices are expected to continue to face supply pressure, while the prices of far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of capacity reduction. There is a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: Volatile and bullish in the short term. The macro sentiment is acceptable, and the fundamentals also have short - term support. The short - term trend of rubber prices is expected to be volatile and bullish [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Volatile. In the short term, there will be no major changes in the fundamentals and raw materials, and the futures price will move in a range - bound manner [13]. - **Cotton**: Volatile in the short term, with a reference range of 13800 - 14300 yuan/ton. In the short term, it will continue to fluctuate. Low inventory provides strong support for cotton prices at the bottom, but there is a lack of momentum for a rebound. Pay attention to the actual purchase price dynamics. When a large amount of new cotton is listed, the reality of increased production in the new year will gradually put downward pressure on cotton prices [13]. - **Sugar**: Volatile and weak in the long term, with a short - term reference range of 5500 - 5750 yuan/ton for single - side trading. In the long term, due to the expected supply surplus in the new crushing season, sugar prices have a downward driving force and are expected to be volatile and weak. In the short term, sugar prices stop falling and rebound [14]. - **Pulp**: Volatile. The internal contradictions of pulp are divided, with important long and short factors coexisting. The futures price of pulp is expected to move in a volatile manner, with an expected fluctuation range of 4950 - 5300 [15]. - **Offset Paper**: Volatile. It is difficult for the upward driving force to emerge, and offset paper moves in a narrow - range volatile manner. It is recommended to consider trading in the range of 4000 - 4500 [16]. - **Logs**: Volatile and bullish in the short term. It is expected that the market will continue to destock in September, and with the expectation of improved terminal demand on a month - on - month basis, log prices may stop falling and stabilize [18]. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including supply, demand, inventory, and price trends. For most products, there are short - term and long - term differences in market trends. For example, in the hog market, there is a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", with short - term supply pressure and long - term hope for price improvement due to capacity reduction. In the corn market, there is a short - term bearish and long - term bullish situation [8][7]. - The market sentiment and macro - economic factors, such as the Fed's interest - rate decision, the US soybean production situation, and the international trade environment, have a significant impact on the prices of agricultural products. For instance, the expected Fed rate cut affects the prices of oils and fats, protein meals, etc. The change in US soybean production and export also affects the relevant product markets [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Market sentiment has weakened, and oils and fats may continue to adjust. From a macro perspective, the market has a strong expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, and the US dollar has weakened. Crude oil prices have risen due to concerns about Russian oil supply disruptions. From an industrial perspective, the drought - affected area of US soybeans has continued to expand, and the soybean yield may be further adjusted downward. The import volume of domestic soybeans is expected to decline seasonally, and the domestic soybean oil inventory may gradually peak. The flood in the Sabah region of Malaysia may affect palm oil production, and the palm oil inventory in September is likely to continue to increase. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly declining, but it is still higher than the same period last year. The relationship between China and Canada remains uncertain [5]. - **Protein Meals**: The cost support has shifted downward, and the prices of double - meal futures continue to decline. Internationally, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates this week. The US soybean area has been increased, and the yield has been slightly adjusted downward. The soybean sowing progress in Brazil is slow, and the South American premium has weakened. Domestically, in the short term, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills continues to accumulate, and the physical inventory of feed enterprises' soybean meal has increased slightly. The spot and basis are running at a low level. In the long term, there is no supply gap before December. The demand for soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly, and rapeseed meal is expected to follow soybean meal and move in a volatile manner [5]. - **Corn/Starch**: Recent continuous rainfall has occurred, and attention should be paid to the grain quality. The domestic corn price is generally weak. The supply of old - crop corn is decreasing, and the inventory in each link is declining. In the Northeast, the supply of old - crop corn is tight, and new - crop corn has not been listed in large quantities. In North China, continuous rainfall has led to problems such as moldy and bald ears in some areas, and the price has continued to decline. In the short term, the market will face the pressure of new - crop corn listing. In the long term, the price is not pessimistic in the context of a tighter carry - over inventory [7]. - **Hogs**: The policy of weight reduction and production limitation continues, and the near - month contracts are under pressure. On September 16, the Ministry of Agriculture continued to guide breeding enterprises to reduce production capacity. From September 18 - 19, 15,000 tons of hog reserves will be rotated. In the short term, the planned hog slaughter volume in September has increased by 4% compared with that in August. In the medium term, the number of newborn piglets has been increasing, and the hog slaughter volume is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, if the policy of capacity reduction is effectively implemented in the fourth quarter, the supply pressure in 2026 will be gradually reduced. The ratio of meat to hog price has slightly increased, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs is stable. The utilization rate of secondary - fattening pens has continued to decline. In the short term, the hog price is under pressure, and in the long term, the hog price may gradually strengthen [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: It has adjusted downward following the overall commodity market. The short - term reality shows strong spot, inventory reduction, and a continuously narrowing basis. However, it is difficult to break through the previous high without further positive driving factors. The supply situation in the producing areas is improving, and attention should be paid to the supply volume and inventory reduction rate. The downstream procurement intention needs to be observed [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It has returned to a weak trend, mainly dragged down by the overall commodity market. The absolute price and operating logic of the futures have changed little recently, and it mainly follows the movement of natural rubber. In the medium - term, due to the expected high - frequency equipment maintenance from September to November and the low price, the bearish sentiment has cooled down, and the bottom support is strong, but there is no continuous upward driving force [13]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price continues to fluctuate slightly. New cotton in Xinjiang has begun to be purchased in small quantities, and the market is waiting for the purchase price to provide guidance. The cotton inventory is low, and the downstream demand has improved marginally, but the demand - side positive factors are not strong. The USDA September report has not adjusted the US cotton production and has raised the Chinese cotton production, but it is still underestimated [13]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price continues to fluctuate. In the long term, the global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the 25/26 crushing season, and the sugar price has a downward driving force. In the short term, the production and export of Brazilian sugar are in the peak season, and the domestic import volume has increased. The fundamentals are relatively loose, but the short - term downward space is limited, and there is a certain support for a rebound [14]. - **Pulp**: There is no obvious breakthrough - type driving force, and the pulp maintains a volatile trend. The futures price of pulp has been moving horizontally, and the spot trading of softwood pulp is weak, while that of hardwood pulp is slightly better. The price increase of the US dollar - denominated pulp has weakened, and the new supply from Chenming's resumption of production has increased. The demand has entered the seasonal peak season, but the upward transmission of terminal demand is weak. The pulp futures valuation is at a low level, but the problem of needle - pulp warehouse receipts suppresses the futures price [15]. - **Offset Paper**: It is difficult for the upward driving force to emerge, and offset paper moves in a narrow - range volatile manner. The trading volume of offset paper at the initial stage of listing is limited, and there is no substantial driving force. In the short term, the fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the tendering of publishers has not started. The market lacks a clear upward or downward driving force. In the long - term, the fundamentals of offset paper are weak, and the market has a strong bearish expectation. It is recommended to consider trading in the range of 4000 - 4500 [16]. - **Logs**: The processing demand has warmed up, and the spot price has boosted the futures price to move in a volatile and bullish manner. The downstream sales of logs have improved, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The market is in a stage of game between weak reality and peak - season expectation. The arrival pressure in September has improved, but the import volume is expected to increase seasonally in October. The demand for logs in China is expected to increase from September to October, and the spot price is in a bottom - building trend [18]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report lists the data monitoring of various varieties, including prices, price changes, and inventory information of oils and fats, protein meals, corn, starch, hogs, cotton, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and logs, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of commodities on September 17, 2025, shows that the commodity 20 index is 2515.59, down 0.45%; the industrial product index is 2270.66, up 0.04% [178]. - **Agricultural Product Index**: On September 17, 2025, the agricultural product index is 961.10, with a daily decline of 0.69%, a decline of 0.99% in the past 5 days, a decline of 2.21% in the past month, and an increase of 0.67% since the beginning of the year [180].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Sugar**: International sugar prices face downward pressure due to India's planned resumption of sugar exports in the 2025/26 season and other bearish factors, but the downside of raw sugar is limited. In the domestic market, there is limited room for a rebound after the release of negative factors, and a bearish outlook is maintained in the medium to long term [3]. - **Pulp**: As the peak season approaches, downstream demand is expected to improve, and the demand for wood pulp replenishment may increase. Policy expectations and sentiment have improved, providing some support for pulp at a low valuation, but caution is still needed regarding the upside potential [4]. - **Offset Paper**: There are expectations of improved demand as the peak season approaches, which provides some support for the spot price. However, the upward driving force is not clear, and the price increase may be limited. Consideration can be given to inter - month reverse spreads and medium - term long - pulp short - paper arbitrage [6]. - **Cotton**: Both the international and domestic cotton markets are affected by factors such as the expected Fed rate cut and the balance between old - season supply tightening and new - season supply expectations. Short - term prices may fluctuate repeatedly [7]. - **Apples**: The main logic is the expected difference in the new season. As the new season harvest approaches, the output and high - quality fruit rate will be verified. Short - term prices are expected to remain within a range [8]. - **Jujubes**: The weather trading window is shortening, and the futures premium over the spot has converged. The inventory is being depleted faster, and the market is in a state of seeking direction. Aggressive investors can short at high levels, and cautious investors can consider reverse spreads [10]. Summary by Directory Part I: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2601, adopt a range - trading strategy with a support range of 7500 - 7600 and a pressure range of 8500 - 8600. For Jujube 2601, short at high levels, with a support range of 10500 - 11000 and a pressure range of 11500 - 12000 [18]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2601, short on rebounds, with a support range of 5480 - 5500 and a pressure range of 5580 - 5600. For Pulp 2511, take a bearish view within the range, with a support range of 4900 - 495 and a pressure range of 5150 - 5200. For Offset Paper 2601, short on rebounds, with a support range of 4100 - 4200 and a pressure range of 4400 - 4500. For Cotton 2601, adopt a range - trading strategy, with a support range of 13500 - 13600 and a pressure range of 14300 - 14400 [18]. Part II: Market News Changes 1. Apple Market - **Fundamental Information**: In July, China's fresh apple exports were about 5.36 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.39%. As of September 10, 2025, the cold - storage inventory in the main apple - producing areas was 20.91 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.44 tons. Different institutions have different estimates of apple production, with one showing a 2.03% decrease and the other a 2.35% increase [19]. - **Spot Market**: The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong production area is stable. The early - maturing variety Red General has entered the market, with significant price differences. The transaction price in the northwest production area is high, and the price in the sales area is stable [20][21]. 2. Jujube Market The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 9321 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.95% and a year - on - year increase of 78.32%. The market is in a state of seeking direction [22]. 3. Sugar Market India plans to start sugar exports in the new season starting in October 2025. The spot sugar price in Guangxi and Kunming has remained relatively stable, with some merchants slightly reducing their quotes [24]. 4. Pulp Market Some suppliers have reduced the price of non - NBSK softwood pulp by $10/ton, while most suppliers intend to keep the price of imported NBSK unchanged. South American hardwood pulp suppliers have raised prices, but Chinese buyers are reluctant to accept the increase [27]. 5. Offset Paper Market The mainstream transaction prices in different regions such as Shandong, Guangdong, Beijing, and Sichuan vary, with some prices decreasing and some remaining stable. The market is in a state of weak demand and more wait - and - see sentiment [28][29]. 6. Cotton Market In August 2025, Brazil exported 7.8 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 30.7%. The 2025/26 annual export volume is expected to reach 310 tons. The new - cotton picking progress in 2025 is 91%, and the processing progress is 31%. The cotton situation in different countries such as Pakistan, Vietnam, and India shows different import and export trends [30][31][32]. Part III: Market Review 1. Futures Market Review The closing prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Apple 2601, Jujube 2601, Sugar 2601, Pulp 2511, and Cotton 2601 are provided, showing different trends [33]. 2. Spot Market Review The spot prices, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and cotton are presented, with different price trends [40]. Part IV: Basis Situation No specific text content is provided, only some related figure information is mentioned [51]. Part V: Inter - month Spread Situation The inter - month spreads of apples, jujubes, sugar, and cotton are in a state of range fluctuations, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [60]. Part VI: Futures Positioning Situation No specific text content is provided, only some related figure information is mentioned [66]. Part VII: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation The current warehouse receipt quantities, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, and cotton are given [85]. Part VIII: Option - related Data No specific text content is provided, only some related figure information is mentioned [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean oil price fluctuated widely recently. Given trade uncertainties, it's advisable to consider buying out - of - the - money call options and a long position in the bean oil - meal ratio. The Y2601 contract long positions could be reduced and observed [3]. - China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may lead to a decrease in Canadian rapeseed imports. If so, domestic rapeseed oil will continue the de - stocking process. A light long position can be taken [3][4]. - Malaysian palm oil is in a seasonal inventory build - up period, but the production increase expectation slows down in September - October. The price has support below. A light long position can be considered [4]. - The soybean meal price is expected to decline. Short positions or selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [5]. - The rapeseed meal price is expected to adjust downward. The market is waiting for the results of China - Canada negotiations [6]. - The corn and corn starch prices are under pressure. Short positions can be held cautiously, and certain option strategies can be considered [7]. - The soybean No.1 price is weak. Short positions can be continued to be held [8]. - The peanut price is expected to be volatile in the short term, affected by the expected increase in production and the cost decrease [9]. - The live pig price is weak. After the confirmation of capacity reduction, long positions in the 2601 contract can be considered. For cautious investors, a long - near and short - far spread strategy can be held [10]. - The egg price has fallen to a historical low. It's advisable to avoid short - selling blindly. Aggressive investors can buy the 2511 contract at a low price [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Outlook | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No.1 11 | Domestic new soybeans are gradually on the market, and the supply is increasing. | 3800 - 3830 yuan/ton | 3950 - 4000 yuan/ton | Sideways with a downward bias | Hold short positions | | | Soybean No.2 11 | Uncertainty in Sino - US trade, supply expectation is changeable. | 3600 - 3630 yuan/ton | 3770 - 3800 yuan/ton | Declining | Try short positions lightly | | | Peanut 11 | Expected increase in production, cost reduction, and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking support. | 7500 - 7600 yuan/ton | 8020 - 8162 yuan/ton | Sideways adjustment | Wait and see | | Oils | Soybean oil 01 | Weak fundamentals, continuous inventory build - up. | 8260 - 8300 yuan/ton | 8500 - 8530 yuan/ton | Wide - range fluctuation | Wait and see | | | Rapeseed oil 01 | Expected reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports, alternative supply, and de - stocking expectation. | 9500 - 9600 yuan/ton | 10300 - 10333 yuan/ton | Sideways with an upward bias | Light long positions | | | Palm oil 01 | Poor production performance of Malaysian palm oil, possible weakening of exports. | 9200 - 9208 yuan/ton | 9700 - 9736 yuan/ton | Sideways with an upward bias | Light long positions | | Protein | Soybean meal 01 | Uncertainty in Sino - US trade, supply expectation is changeable. | 2930 - 2950 yuan/ton | 3090 - 3100 yuan/ton | Declining | Try short positions lightly | | | Rapeseed meal 01 | Expected reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports, poor cost - performance, and weak consumption. | 2365 - 2400 yuan/ton | 2572 - 2584 yuan/ton | Sideways with a downward bias | Wait and see | | Energy and By - products | Corn 11 | Weak fundamentals, price under pressure. | 2100 - 2120 yuan/ton | 2240 - 2250 yuan/ton | Under pressure | Hold short positions cautiously | | | Starch 11 | Cost reduction, supply is slightly loose, price follows the downward trend. | 2400 - 2420 yuan/ton | 2580 - 2590 yuan/ton | Under pressure | Hold short positions cautiously | | Livestock | Live pig 11 | Feed price rebounds, strong expectation of capacity reduction. | 12800 - 13000 yuan/ton | 13000 - 13800 yuan/ton | Bottom - hunting | Turn to wait and see | | | Egg 11 | Capacity pressure and consumption peak season expectation. | 2900 - 3100 yuan/ton | 3300 - 3350 yuan/ton | Bottom - hunting | Buy at a low price | [13] 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - delivery Spread**: For most varieties, it's recommended to wait and see. For the 01 soybean meal - 05 soybean meal spread, a long - near and short - far strategy can be considered, with a target of 300 - 400. For the live pig 1 - 3 and egg 10 - 1 spreads, a long - near and short - far strategy can be considered at a low price [14][15]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: For the 01 soybean oil - palm oil spread, a short - position operation can be considered; for the 01 rapeseed oil - soybean oil spread, a long - position operation can be considered; for the 01 bean oil - meal ratio, a long - position operation can be considered [15]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties, including soybeans, oils, protein feeds, energy products, and livestock products [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It shows the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and delivery months, including CNF prices, arrival - at - port duty - paid prices, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is zero [17][18]. - **Weekly Data**: It presents the inventory and operating rates of soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts, such as the port soybean inventory, oil - mill soybean meal inventory, and the operating rates of soybean and rapeseed oil mills [19]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months [19]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [20]. 3.2.3 Livestock - **Live Pig**: It provides the daily and weekly data of live pigs, including prices, production costs, profits, slaughter data, etc [21][25]. - **Egg**: It provides the daily and weekly data of eggs, including prices, supply, demand, and profits [22][24]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts The report provides a large number of charts to track the fundamentals of livestock, oils and oilseeds, and feed sectors, including production, consumption, inventory, price spreads, and basis of various varieties [26][37][45] 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report provides the historical volatility charts of various varieties and the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio charts of corn options [85][87][88] 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report provides the warehouse receipt situation charts of various varieties, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs [90][91][92]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for cotton, sugar, and pulp is neutral [3][6][9] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the global cotton supply - demand situation is complex. The US cotton supply - demand is expected to improve, but short - term export sales are slow. In China, the current supply is tight, and prices are supported in the short - term, but there is a risk of decline if the peak season demand is weak. In the long run, the cotton price center may rise [2] - For sugar, the strong supply from Brazil is pressuring the raw sugar price. The domestic sugar market is also weak due to poor sales and concerns about policies, but the downside space is limited [5][6] - For pulp, the supply pressure remains high due to slow port de - stocking and high domestic inventory. The demand is weak both at home and abroad. The short - term pulp price is expected to oscillate at a low level [8][9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,890 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.04%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,226 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,310 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In July, India's cotton imports were about 58,000 tons, a significant increase. As of now, the cumulative imports in the 2024/25 season are 662,000 tons, much higher than last year [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the September USDA report adjusted the global cotton supply - demand data, and the US cotton supply - demand is expected to improve. Domestically, the inventory is low, but there is a risk of decline during the new cotton listing period if the peak season demand is poor [2] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term: oscillate between 13,700 - 14,300 yuan/ton; medium - term: bearish; long - term: bullish [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,529 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.32%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,870 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,860 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. In the 2025/26 season as of September 1, Brazil's cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region decreased slightly [4] Market Analysis - The raw sugar price is pressured by Brazil's strong supply, but there is support from the ethanol price. The domestic sugar market is weak due to poor sales and policy concerns, but the downside space is limited [5][6] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term: oscillate at the bottom and wait for a rebound [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2511 contract was 5,042 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton (-0.51%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,640 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,135 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - The supply pressure of pulp remains high, and the demand is weak both at home and abroad. Attention should be paid to whether the terminal orders will improve during the seasonal peak season [8] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term: continue to oscillate at a low level [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, macro - news, and capital flows. It shows that there are various changes in production, supply - demand, and price trends in the agricultural and energy sectors, and also reflects the impact of macro - economic policies and events on the market [1][13][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, and US soybeans are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 11 (BMD) is 4422.00, with a previous - day increase of 0.07% and an overnight decrease of 0.58% [1] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices and basis of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE soybean oil 2601, and DCE soybean meal 2601 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9560, with a basis of 100 and no change from the previous day [2] - **Exchange Rates**: The latest exchange rates and their changes of major currencies against the US dollar are given, like the US dollar index at 97.00 with a 0.40% increase [1] 3.2 Important Fundamental Information 3.2.1产区天气 - **US Soybean Main - producing States**: The future weather outlook (September 22 - 26) shows that the temperature in the main - producing states is generally high, and precipitation is close to or lower than the median. The Midwest has high temperatures and showers that are mostly unfavorable for crop maturity and harvest [3][5] 3.2.2 International Supply and Demand - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: From September 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 8.05% compared to the same period last month. Different institutions have different estimates of its export volume changes [7][8] - **US Agricultural Products**: Analysts expect that as of the week ending September 11, 2025/26 US soybean export sales will net increase by 40 - 150 million tons, and there are also corresponding expectations for soybean meal and soybean oil export sales [8] - **Canadian Rapeseed**: In 2025, Canada's rapeseed production is expected to increase by 4.1% to 20 million tons, with different production trends in different provinces [10] - **Australian Rapeseed**: The 2025/26 Australian rapeseed production is expected to be 6.1 million tons, a 3.4% increase from the previous forecast [11] - **Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index**: It rose for the fourth consecutive day due to the increase in capesize ship freight rates [11] 3.2.3 Domestic Supply and Demand - **Commodity Trading Volume**: On September 17, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased compared to the previous day, while the trading volume of soybean meal increased. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate decreased by 1.82% to 67.82% [13][14] - **Production of Refined Edible Vegetable Oil**: In August 2025, China's refined edible vegetable oil production was 4.506 million tons, a 0.3% year - on - year decrease. From January to August, the cumulative production was 34.054 million tons, a 3.0% cumulative year - on - year increase [14] - **Agricultural Product Prices**: On September 17, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index both decreased slightly. The prices of some agricultural products such as pork, beef, and mutton decreased, while the price of eggs increased [14] 3.3 Macro - news 3.3.1 International News - **US Federal Reserve**: The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in October is 12.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 87.7%. The Fed has restarted the rate - cut process, and there are different expectations among officials for future rate cuts [16][17] - **US Economic Data**: Data such as US building permits, new home starts, EIA crude oil inventories, and MBA mortgage application activity index are presented, showing the current economic situation in the US [17][18] - **Indonesian Central Bank**: The Indonesian central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates for the sixth time since last September, aiming to stimulate demand while keeping inflation low [19] - **Eurozone CPI**: The eurozone's August CPI annual rate and monthly rate were both slightly lower than expected [19] 3.3.2 Domestic News - **Exchange Rate**: On September 17, the US dollar/renminbi exchange rate was reported at 7.1013, down 14 points (renminbi appreciation) [21] - **Central Bank Operations**: On September 17, the People's Bank of China conducted 418.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 114.5 billion yuan [21] - **Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure**: From January to August 2025, corporate income tax revenue increased by 0.3% year - on - year, personal income tax revenue increased by 8.9% year - on - year, vehicle purchase tax revenue decreased by 17.7% year - on - year, and stamp duty revenue increased by 27.4% year - on - year [21] 3.4 Capital Flows - On September 17, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 7.386 billion yuan. Among them, commodity futures had a net outflow of 6.727 billion yuan, stock index futures had a net outflow of 862 million yuan, and bond futures had a net inflow of 197 million yuan [25] 3.5 Arbitrage Tracking - No information provided in the report

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that CBOT soybean oil futures prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a current price of 51.61 cents per pound, reflecting a decline of 0.41% from the opening price of 51.83 cents per pound [1] - On September 17, the opening price for soybean oil futures was 53.20 cents per pound, with a closing price of 51.82 cents per pound, marking a decrease of 2.81% [2] - The trading volume for national first-grade soybean oil on September 17 was 21,000 tons, which represents a decrease of 2.33% compared to the previous trading day [2] Group 2 - As of September 17, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported a soybean oil futures warehouse receipt of 24,544 lots, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price for Argentine soybean oil for October shipment was reported at $1,183 per ton, an increase of $5 per ton compared to the previous trading day; for December shipment, the price was $1,179 per ton, up by $6 per ton [2]

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 9 月 18 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 ...

Report Overview - Date: September 18, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: With no obvious upward or downward drivers, it is advisable to conduct range trading [2][4]. - **Soybean Oil**: As US soybeans fluctuate, the oil is undergoing a corrective adjustment [2][4]. - **Soybean Meal**: Influenced by the capital side, it has deviated from the fundamentals [2][12]. - **Soybean**: Affected by the atmosphere of the soybean market, it is oscillating at a low level [2][12]. - **Corn**: It is moving in an oscillatory manner [2][15]. - **Sugar**: It is trending downward in an oscillatory pattern [2][19]. - **Cotton**: The market is focused on the situation of new cotton listings [2][24]. - **Eggs**: The peak season for spot sales is approaching its end, and the inventory remains high [2][31]. - **Hogs**: Although policy expectations have been realized, the weakness of the spot market persists [2][33]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [2][38]. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's main contract closed at 9,424 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.61% decline, and 9,388 yuan/ton at night with a -0.38% decline. Soybean oil's main contract closed at 8,366 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.62% decline, and 8,350 yuan/ton at night with a -0.19% decline [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From September 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 8.05% compared to the same period last month, with a 6.94% decrease in yield and a 0.21% decrease in oil extraction rate. Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 15 were 695,716 tons (AmSpec) or 404,688 tons (SGS), showing a decrease compared to the same period last month [5][6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both palm oil and soybean oil have a trend intensity of 0 [11]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean 2511 closed at 3,895 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.99% decline, and 3,895 yuan/ton at night with a -0.49% decline. DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3,002 yuan/ton during the day session with a -1.44% decline, and 3,012 yuan/ton at night with a -0.23% decline [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 17, CBOT soybeans closed lower due to long - position liquidation, a decline in soybean oil, and an increase in the US dollar index. The US EPA plans to redistribute the biofuel blending obligations of small refineries to large refineries [12][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybean have a trend intensity of 0 [14]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The price of the C2511 contract was 2,161 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.37% decline, and 2,173 yuan/ton at night with a 0.56% increase. The price of the C2601 contract was 2,155 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.14% decline, and 2,165 yuan/ton at night with a 0.46% increase [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The northern port collection price of corn was 2,240 - 2,260 yuan/ton, and the price at Guangdong Shekou was 2,400 - 2,420 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [18]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 15.51 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.39 cents. The mainstream spot price was 5,940 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The futures main contract price was 5,529 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Brazil's sugar production in the second half of August increased by 18% year - on - year. India's monsoon precipitation increased again. Brazil's sugar exports decreased, raising concerns about global consumption. Conab lowered Brazil's sugar production forecast for the 25/26 season to 44.5 million tons [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of -1 [22]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: The CF2601 contract closed at 13,890 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.04% decline, and 13,870 yuan/ton at night with a -0.14% decline. The CY2511 contract closed at 19,910 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.20% decline, and 19,900 yuan/ton at night with a -0.05% decline [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The overall trading of cotton spot was sluggish, and the market was waiting for new cotton listings. The trading of the pure cotton yarn market was lukewarm, weaker than the same period in previous years [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [28]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: The egg 2510 contract closed at 3,059 yuan/500 kilograms with a -1.83% decline, and the egg 2601 contract closed at 3,376 yuan/500 kilograms with a -0.18% decline [31]. - **Trend Intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [31]. Hogs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 12,980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan. The Sichuan spot price was 12,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan. The Guangdong spot price was 13,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan [34]. - **Market Logic**: Group companies significantly reduced their sales volume, but the weight increased again, and the price difference between fat and lean hogs weakened, indicating a serious passive inventory accumulation. The supply in September is expected to increase significantly, and the market pressure will be prominent from September to October [36]. - **Trend Intensity**: Hogs have a trend intensity of -2 [35]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The PK510 contract closed at 7,818 yuan/ton with a 0.23% increase, and the PK511 contract closed at 7,822 yuan/ton with a 0.72% increase [38]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In some regions, the price of peanuts was stable. Some areas are expected to have new peanuts listed in about 10 days [39]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [40].

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index decreased by 0.77%, closing at 29.5688 points [1] - CBOT corn futures fell by 0.58% [1] - CBOT wheat futures dropped by 0.84% [1] - CBOT soybean futures declined by 0.57%, settling at $10.44 per bushel [1] - Soymeal futures decreased by 0.28% [1] - Soy oil futures experienced a significant drop of 2.63% [1] - ICE raw sugar futures fell by 2.45% [1] - ICE Arabica coffee futures decreased slightly by 0.06% [1] - Coffee "C" futures saw a notable decline of 7.56% [1] - New York cocoa futures dropped by 0.26%, closing at $7352 per ton [1] - ICE cotton futures fell by 0.74% [1]

Group 1 - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures saw a decline across all major contracts on September 17, with raw sugar futures dropping by 2.45% to 15.51 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures decreased by 0.74%, closing at 67.18 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures fell by 0.26%, settling at $7352.00 per ton [1] - Coffee futures experienced a significant drop of 7.56%, ending at 378.40 cents per pound [1]