开机率维持高位，豆粕延续震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2723元/吨，较前日变动-4元/吨，幅度-0.15%；菜粕2605合约2247元/吨，较前日 变动-2元/吨，幅度-0.09%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3170元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M05+447， 较前日变动+4；江苏地区豆粕现货3010元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差M05+287，较前日变动-6；广东地区 豆粕现货价格3000元/吨，较前日变动跌-20元/吨，现货基差M05+277，较前日变动-16。福建地区菜粕现货价格2440 元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差RM05+193，较前日变动+2。 农产品日报 | 2026-02-05 近期市场资讯，巴西国家商品供应公司作物进展报告显示，截至1月31日，巴西2025/26年度大豆收获进度11.4%， 高于一周前的6.6%和去年同期的8.0%，但低于五年同期均值11.8%。 市场分析 油厂的大豆及豆粕库存正在逐步消耗，近月到港量偏少，等待新季巴西大豆发运到港，且受到近期宏观层面影响 近期国内豆粕价格震荡偏强运行，但巴西新季丰产压 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) have a neutral rating [2][5][8] Report Core View - The global cotton supply and demand pattern is still relatively loose in 2025/26, with weak terminal demand and low - level oscillation of ICE US cotton in the short - term. In China, there is a large increase in cotton production, and the supply and demand are expected to be balanced in the whole year. The cotton price is expected to oscillate in a range in the short - term [2] - The global sugar market is in a state of definite surplus in the 2025/26 season. The short - and medium - term surplus pattern restricts the rebound of sugar prices, but long - term prices should not be overly pessimistic. China's sugar market has a new - season production increase expectation, and the sugar price is expected to oscillate and bottom out in the short - and medium - term [4][5] - The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026, and China's import pressure may be alleviated. However, the domestic paper industry has over - capacity, and the pulp price is expected to consolidate at a low level in the short term [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The cotton 2605 contract closed at 14,680 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (+0.20%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,738 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton; the national average price was 16,002 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [1] - As of January 31, 2026, the cumulative new - season seed cotton listing volume in Pakistan was about 859,000 tons, up 0.8% year - on - year. Domestic mills purchased about 773,000 tons, exported about 28,000 tons, and the unsold inventory in ginneries was about 59,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global cotton supply - demand pattern is loose in 2025/26. US cotton exports are weak, and ICE US cotton will oscillate at a low level in the short - term. In the long - term, the downward space is limited, but the upward drive is unclear [2] - Domestically, China's cotton production has increased significantly in 2025/26, and commercial inventories are rising seasonally. Traders are more willing to hold goods, and the basis is strengthening. Textile enterprises stocked up before the Spring Festival, but downstream new orders are insufficient, and industrial chain inventories are at a high level in the past five years. The whole - year supply and demand are expected to be balanced, but there may be a tight inventory situation at the end of the year [2] Strategy - Neutral. In the short - term, the expectation of a decrease in Xinjiang cotton planting area in 2026/27 has been partially traded. The domestic demand support is limited, facing the pressure of internal - external price difference, and the cotton price is expected to oscillate within a range [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The sugar 2605 contract closed at 5,210 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton (+0.83%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,290 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,150 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [3] - As of January 31, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - making season in Guangxi, the cumulative crushed sugarcane was 33.4306 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0971 million tons; the output of blended sugar was 4.029 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.788 million tons [3] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global sugar market is in surplus in the 2025/26 season. In the short - term, the tight balance of trade flow in the first quarter supports the raw sugar price, but the trade flow will become looser after the second quarter. In the long - term, the price should not be overly pessimistic [4] - Domestically, the new - season production increase expectation remains unchanged, and the supply is increasing seasonally. The import profit outside the quota is at a high level, and the import pressure in the fourth quarter is high, but it will decrease in the off - season [4][5] Strategy - Neutral. In the short - and medium - term, the domestic sugar is in the inventory - accumulation stage. The decline space is limited, and the sugar price is expected to oscillate and bottom out. 2026 may be the year to confirm the bottom, and attention should be paid to the changes in import - related policies [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The pulp 2605 contract closed at 5,324 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan/ton (+0.91%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,375 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,915 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - The spot price of imported wood pulp was stable. The downstream pulp - purchasing enthusiasm was weak, and the market trading atmosphere was light [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas new production capacity has been limited in the past two years, and major overseas hardwood pulp mills announced production cuts and conversions in the second half of 2025. In 2026, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken, and the growth rate of hardwood pulp shipments may slow down. The demand in Europe is expected to improve, and China's import pressure may be alleviated [7] - Demand: In 2025, there was a large - scale production capacity investment in finished paper, but the terminal demand was insufficient, and the paper industry was in a state of over - capacity. The paper mills' raw material procurement was cautious, and the port inventory was at a historical high. In 2026, the paper production capacity is expanding, and there will be marginal incremental demand for pulp [7] Strategy - Neutral. The overall improvement of the pulp fundamentals is limited, the port inventory remains high, and the pulp price is expected to consolidate at a low level in the short - term [8]

Group 1: Corn Market - The corn closing price was 2269 CNY/ton, with an increase of 0.31%. It is expected that some enterprises will enter maintenance phases next week, leading to a continued decline in operations [4][14] - Market trading is notably quiet, with stable positions. The main divergence lies in whether there will be concentrated volume after the holiday. Future observations will focus on the elasticity of enterprise inventory demand in the short window before recovery [4][14] - Market sentiment is shifting towards post-holiday trading, maintaining a fluctuating trend before the holiday, but there is a possibility of a slight decline. The main contract support is observed around 2250, with resistance at 2330 [5][15] Group 2: Soybean Meal Market - Following a call between Chinese and U.S. leaders, there is a consideration to increase U.S. soybean purchases from 12 million tons to 20 million tons for the 2025/26 season, leading to a significant rebound in CBOT soybean prices. However, South American abundant production may limit the price increase [6][16] - As Brazilian soybeans are shipped to China, market expectations of tight arrivals have been adjusted, resulting in a price correction. The May contract is supported by cost factors, performing better than the March contract [6][16] - Despite the potential increase in domestic soybean supply from continued U.S. purchases, the short-term focus may be on the cost support from the U.S. market rebound, maintaining a range trading strategy with an expected price range of 2700-2850 CNY/ton for the May contract [6][16] Group 3: Egg Market - The spot price of eggs in major production areas has seen a significant decline, with the average price in Hebei at approximately 3.0 CNY/jin, down 0.24 CNY/jin from the previous day. Traders may accelerate sales due to continuous price drops [7][17] - Short-term demand for pre-holiday stocking remains a key support, but post-holiday demand is a major risk. Current signs indicate a weakening in spot prices, leading to a bearish pricing trend [7][17] - Long-term attention should be on the actual progress of capacity reduction, with historical trends suggesting that 2025 could be a loss year, potentially improving supply-demand relationships in 2026 [7][17] Group 4: Live Pig Market - The average price of live pigs in major production areas was approximately 12.12 CNY/kg. The planned output for February is 22.92 million heads, a decrease of 17.73% from January [9][19] - Despite potential fluctuations as the Spring Festival approaches, the futures market has already priced in expectations for a decline, with a high basis level reflecting anticipated price drops [9][19] - Key observations for the 2026 market will focus on the depth and sustainability of capacity reduction, with changes in industry management potentially altering traditional "pig cycle" price fluctuation patterns [9][19]

Report Summary - **Report Date**: February 5, 2026 - **Report Source**: Baocheng Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures, along with their core driving logics. [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Performance**: - Short - term: 2605 contract is expected to be in a range - bound state. - Medium - term: 2605 contract is expected to be in a range - bound state. - Intraday: 2605 contract is expected to be strong, and the reference view is also strong. [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The sentiment in the US soybean market has improved, leading to a strong rebound in futures prices. However, the domestic fundamentals are weak. After the pre - holiday stocking by downstream users, the demand for soybean meal has declined, resulting in inventory accumulation. The high operating rate of oil mills has alleviated the expected shortage of soybean supply. The losses in the livestock farming sector further suppress the demand for soybean meal. At the end of the stocking period, terminal transactions have decreased, and the spot market is weak. Feed enterprises' inventories have increased, and the oil mills' production has been steadily increasing, so the supply pressure remains high. The short - term price of soybean meal will rebound following the US soybean futures prices, but the rebound amplitude will be restricted by domestic industrial chain pressure. [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Price Performance**: - Short - term: 2605 contract is expected to be in a range - bound state. - Medium - term: 2605 contract is expected to be strong. - Intraday: 2605 contract is expected to be moderately strong, and the reference view is also moderately strong. [6][7] - **Core Logic**: The core driver of the oil market comes from the proposed 45Z biofuel tax credit rule issued by the US Treasury Department, which allows the use of Canadian and Mexican raw materials, marginally benefiting the consumption of US soybean oil and strengthening the market's optimistic expectations for biofuel policies. Coupled with the increase in international oil prices due to geopolitical situations, the overnight CBOT soybean oil futures rose strongly, driving the overall domestic oil market higher. However, domestic fundamentals restrict the upward movement. Palm oil is supported by the expected improvement in Malaysia's supply - demand situation in January, but the high domestic inventory and light spot trading limit its upward space. In the short term, the palm oil market is mainly affected by sentiment and capital, with futures prices moderately strong. [7] Soybean Oil - **Price Performance**: - Short - term: 2605 contract is expected to be in a range - bound state. - Medium - term: 2605 contract is expected to be strong. - Intraday: 2605 contract is expected to be moderately strong, and the reference view is also moderately strong. [6] - **Core Logic**: It is supported by the cost of US soybeans, US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory. [6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2026-2-5 天胶反弹，其它偏震荡 逻辑：昨日商品情绪演继续回暖，天胶同样跟随小幅走高，整体依旧维持 多头趋势。前期的上涨主要是宏观氛围驱动，并无基本面变化，所以昨日 回落也不存在基本面的变化。目前来看近一个月运行区间上移，前期压力 位成为支撑位。当前交易逻辑我们认为或维持宏观影响为主。当前胶价基 本面相对偏弱，但预期尚可，所以也存在提前于基本面发生边际变化前开 始上涨的可能。目前基本面具体来说，海外供应季节性上量相对顺利，上 游供应目前仍相对充裕。而需求端来看，节前轮胎企业逢低采购，虽对现 货形成一定支撑，但总体并未出现大批量集中补库的情况。而当前最明面 的利空为较快的累库。但在资金炒作预期的背景下，盘面暂时易涨难跌。 展望：基本面变量有限，但当前资金关注度继续上升，盘面维持震荡。 风险因素：宏观对商品超预期的扰动，天气。 农业团队 油脂：⽣柴税收抵免政策发布，油脂⼩幅反弹 蛋⽩粕：购销清淡，双粕延续震荡 ⽟⽶/淀粉：购销逐步清淡，期现窄幅震荡 ⽣猪：供需宽松，现货回调 天然橡㬵：多头情绪延续 合成橡㬵：⾼位震荡 棉花：节前窄幅 ...

新华财经北京2月4日电（记者王小璐）"十五五"开局之年，"三农"工作如何发力？2026年中央一号文件 给出清晰答案。中央一号文件坚持稳中求进工作总基调，在保持"三农"工作布局总体稳定的基础上，针 对新形势新要求，明确了今年"三农"领域的重大任务和重点工作，主要内容可以概括为"四项重点任 务、两大支撑保障"。 四项重点任务、两大支撑保障 "增加农民收入始终是'三农'工作的中心任务。"中央财办副主任、中央农办副主任祝卫东在国新办新闻 发布会上表示，今年中央一号文件把促进农民增收摆在重要位置，提出一揽子增收措施，打出一套政 策"组合拳"。 在保护和调动农民务农种粮积极性方面，祝卫东指出，重点是统筹用好价格、补贴、保险等政策，健全 种粮农民收益保障机制，防止谷贱伤农。价格方面，用好最低收购价、目标价格等政策工具，统筹做好 市场化收购和政策性收储，促进粮食等重要农产品价格保持在合理水平。补贴方面，稳定实施耕地地力 保护补贴、玉米大豆生产者补贴和稻谷补贴政策，实施好农机购置与应用补贴政策，鼓励地方开展粮油 种植专项贷款贴息试点，给农民真金白银的支持。保险方面，强化稻谷、小麦、玉米、大豆保险保障， 支持发展地方特色农产品保 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance. Pig futures have rebounded from a low level, supported by policies and increased year - end demand. Sugar futures have also rebounded due to an external market rally, but the rebound space may be limited by domestic supply. Egg futures continue to be weak, while palm oil futures are rebounding, and soybean meal futures are running weakly. Cotton futures are fluctuating within a narrow range [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Pig prices have rebounded from a low level, supported by policies on hog production capacity regulation and increased year - end pork demand. The main 2605 contract may stabilize. Sugar has also rebounded due to the sharp rebound of external raw sugar, but domestic new sugar supply may limit the rebound space. Egg prices are falling from a low level, and the weak trend may continue due to reduced demand and increased inventory [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Pig - The main 2605 contract of pig futures has rebounded strongly from a low level, boosted by policies and increased year - end demand. The 2026 No. 1 Central Document proposed to strengthen the comprehensive regulation of hog production capacity, and with the approaching of the Spring Festival, downstream demand has increased. The contract price has recovered from the decline at the beginning of the week, standing above the 10 - day moving average. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading [2]. 3.2.2 Sugar - The main 2605 contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures has rebounded after a decline, driven by the rebound of the external ICE raw sugar. However, the seasonal supply pressure of domestic new sugar still exists. The domestic Spring Festival stocking is nearly over, and demand support is insufficient. The rebound space of sugar may be limited. The contract has rebounded and stood above the 10 - day moving average, oscillating within the recent trading range. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading [3]. 3.2.3 Palm Oil - The 2605 contract of palm oil futures continued to rebound on Wednesday but with a volatile trend. High - frequency data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 17.9% in January, while production decreased by 13.08%, and India's imports increased by 51%. However, the domestic inventory is high and spot trading is light. The contract has continued a small - scale rebound, standing above the 10 - day moving average. The strategy is to wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in long positions with a light position [6]. 3.2.4 Soybean Meal - The main 2605 contract of soybean meal futures continued to close with a small negative line, running weakly, pressured by sufficient domestic supply. Domestic imported soybeans are abundant, and the oil mill's crushing volume remains high, with an expected 2.4 million tons this week. The inventory at the end of January rose to 947,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.43%. Downstream enterprises' pre - festival stocking is coming to an end, and their willingness to purchase is limited. The contract price is testing the lower edge of the 2700 - 2710 range. The strategy is to participate in short positions with a short - term view and set a stop - loss [7][9]. 3.2.5 Egg - The main 2603 contract of egg futures continued to be weak and decline. The pre - Spring Festival stocking is basically over, terminal demand has weakened, and inventory has increased. The egg - laying hen inventory is still at a relatively high level in recent years, and the production capacity is slowly being reduced. The contract is running weakly below the moving average system, and the MACD shows a dead - cross with an expanding green column. The strategy is to hold short positions with a light position [10]. 3.2.6 Cotton - The main 2605 contract of cotton futures continued to close with a small positive line, fluctuating within a narrow range and showing a sideways oscillation. The expectation of reduced cotton - planting area in Xinjiang has been digested, and market speculation has cooled down. As the Spring Festival approaches, textile enterprises' new order volume has decreased, and their intention to replenish inventory has weakened. The contract price is fluctuating around the 20 - day moving average, and the MACD green column continues. The strategy is to conduct short - term trading [12].

【冠通期货研究报告】 软商品日报：震荡偏弱 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 4 日 棉花：当前棉花市场处于"国内基本面支撑、国际宏观压制"的格局之中。 尽管国内棉花销售进度和纱价表现仍存支撑，但随着春节假期临，下游生产进入 收尾阶段，市场整体驱动趋弱。短期棉价预计以区间震荡为主，后续需关注节后 纺织企业复工节奏、全球贸易政策走向及美国新棉种植意向等中长期变量对市场 的影响。近期市场成交主要以前期"锁基差，后点价"合同落地为主，纺织企业 等补库的积极性消退，棉企也无意在节前抢出货，市场进入平静期。预估节前仍 然保持宽幅震荡格局。 白糖：截至 1 月底云南累计产糖 98.41 万吨！同比上榨季增长 17.56%，云 南省 2025/26 榨季截至 1 月 31 日累计开榨糖厂 50 家，累计入榨甘蔗 814.47 万 吨，产糖 98.41 万吨，同比上榨季同期增长 14.7 万吨，增幅 17.56%；产糖率 12.08%， 略低于上榨季同期的 12.34%。截至 1 月 31 日，云南省累计销售新糖 53.20 万吨， 销糖率 54.06%，与上榨季同期（54.03%）基本持平，工业库存 45.21 万吨。其 中 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of the meal market is under pressure, and the prices are generally declining. The international soybean market is in a relatively loose supply - demand situation, and prices may face pressure. The domestic spot supply of soybean meal has tightened, while the demand for rapeseed meal has weakened. The trading strategy suggests a bearish view for single - side trading, expanding the MRM spread for arbitrage, and selling a wide - straddle strategy for options [1][3][4][7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The US soybean market is oscillating. The US biodiesel policy has improved demand, but the impact is limited. South American market quotes are slightly down, and US soybean price decline supports the Brazilian quotes. The domestic soybean meal market is at a low level. Concerns about future arrivals have decreased, increasing the downward pressure. Rapeseed meal also shows downward pressure, with a larger decline than soybean meal. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread is expanding, and the near - month spreads of both are decreasing [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis International Market - US soybean carry - over stocks are raised to 350 million bushels, higher than the market forecast of 292 million bushels, mainly due to increased planting area. Quarterly grain inventory data is also bearish. Although US soybean exports have improved, the supply - demand situation is still loose. In South America, Brazilian new - crop soybeans are growing well, and exports are expected to increase. Brazilian old - crop soybeans have good export and crushing performance. Argentine old - crop soybean production is large, and the pressure on exports and crushing has eased [4] Domestic Market - The domestic spot supply of soybean meal has tightened. Oil mill operating rates are increasing but at a slower pace.提货量 has decreased slightly, and inventory is declining. Market transactions have increased significantly. As of January 30, the actual soybean crushing volume is 2.2961 million tons, the operating rate is 63.16%, soybean inventory is 6.355 million tons, a decrease of 3.56% from last week and an increase of 44.77% year - on - year. Soybean meal inventory is 930,400 tons, an increase of 3.54% from last week and 3.54% year - on - year. The demand for rapeseed meal is gradually weakening. Oil mill operating rates have increased, but rapeseed supply is low, and granular rapeseed meal inventory is still high, so there is supply pressure. As of January 30, coastal oil mill rapeseed inventory is 58,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last week, and rapeseed meal inventory is 1,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from last week [6] 3.3 Logic Analysis - The positive impact of the US biodiesel policy on soybean crushing is limited, and further upward momentum for US soybeans is weak. The recent rise in the US dollar index may not be sustainable. International market uncertainties mainly come from weather. In the domestic market, future soybean arrivals are expected to decrease, and the supply is uncertain. The spot market provides some support, but the upside for the futures market is limited. Rapeseed meal also faces downward pressure. As imports increase, the supply will improve. The demand for rapeseed meal may improve with the tightening of soybean meal supply, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread will expand. The near - month spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are decreasing [7] 3.4 Trading Strategies - Single - side trading: Adopt a bearish view - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM spread - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [8] 3.5 Soybean Pressing Profit - The pressing profit data from different sources (Argentina and Brazil) and different shipping dates are provided, showing the changes in pressing profit compared with the previous day [9]

研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2026 年 2 月 4 日 | 第一部分 | | | | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | 2026/2/4 | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | 7924 | -2 | -0.03% | 14,182 | 35.30% | 55,386 | 4.27% | | PK610 | 8238 | 6 | 0.07% | 107 | 67.19% | 2,717 | -0.37% | | PK601 | 8232 | 22 | 0.27% | 46 | 2200.00% | 30 | 7.14% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | 现货 | 河南南阳 | 山东济宁 | 山东临沂 | 日照花生粕 | 日照豆粕 | 花生油 | 日照一级豆油 | | 今日报价 | 7400 | 8000 | 8000 | 3 ...