【铝&氧化铝&铝合金】 今日沪铝冲高回落偏强震荡，华东、中原、华南现货贴水大幅扩大至-200元、-390元、-280元，铝锭铝棒社库 较上周四分别增加2.8万吨和1.2万吨。近期贵金属有色亢奋，沪铝跟涨为主，多头背靠40日线持有，但铝市基 本面驱动不足，表观需求和现货反馈不佳，暂谨慎看待上方空间。今日保太ADC12现货报价上调200元至21900 元。废铝依然偏紧，税务调整令部分地区成本面临上调。宏观驱动下铸造铝合金与沪铝价差季节性表现弱于往 年、价差维持在千元附近。上周发改委发文提及对氧化铝等强资源约束型产业强化管理,氧化铝盘面大幅上 涨，但政策指导落地还需要时间。氧化铝平衡持续处于显著过刺，随着铝土矿价格回落成本有下降空间，现金 成本核算仍有利润。短期氧化铝价格接近触发减产,跌势放缓,多空博弈加剧放大盘面波动,但中期企稳还需 等待规模减产形成。 【锌】 TC继续回落，炼厂减产延续，SMM锌社库环比下滑1.3万吨至11.19万吨，比价不利于锌锭进口。供应端压力减 弱,但消费处谈季,叠加元旦假期临近,资金短线交投为主,沪锌缺乏方向性驱动,反复测试2.3万整数关。 2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，追求"开门红 ...

美国这种行径会造成什么后果？那就是出于对"安全"的考虑，各个国家会加速抛售美债，大量买进黄金、白银、铜、铝等战略物资，因为美国现 在可以没收油轮和石油，接下来可以冻结、没收别国持有的美债，这是有色金属价格大涨的根本原因。 事实上， 早在 2022 年 2 月 24 日 ，时任美国总统的拜登就宣布，冻结俄罗斯在美国的所有资产，作为对俄罗斯在乌克兰军事行动的回应。 如 此一来，各国"人人自危"，"去美元化"浪潮是从那个时候开始的。 二是宏观政策转向。 美联储连续降息， 2025 年累计降息 75 个基点，引发美元走弱预期，这提升了以美元计价的有色金属吸引力。市场预期 2026 年 1 月可能进一步降息，推动资金涌入有色金属市场。 中国相关政策也发挥了引导作用，国家发展和改革委员会发文强化了铜、铝等资源约束型产业管理，收缩供给端预期，这直接刺激氧化铝、铜期 货价格的大涨。 文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 有色金属价格近来持续大幅走高，主要受三大因素驱动，"去美元化"浪潮 及避险情绪升温、宏观政策转向，以及供需矛盾激化。展望未来，有色金 属价格短期波动可能加剧。 有色金属近期持续大涨的三大关键因素 有色金属（金银铜铝等） ...

人民财讯12月29日电，工信部等六部门公告，按照《国务院关于印发〈2024—2025年节能降碳行动方 案〉的通知》(国发〔2024〕12号)要求，推动算力设施绿色低碳发展，工业和信息化部、国家发展改革 委、商务部、金融监管总局、国管局、国家能源局确定了2025年度国家绿色算力设施名单。其中，工业 领域算力设施是弘盛铜业数据中心。 ...

Market Performance - The three major A-share indices showed mixed performance on December 29, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.04% to 3965.28 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.49% to 13537.1 points and the ChiNext Index dropped 0.66% to 3222.61 points [2] - A total of 1993 stocks rose while 3325 stocks fell across the exchanges, with a total trading volume of 21,393 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous day's 21,601 billion yuan [3] Sector Performance - The defense and military sector saw strong gains, with several stocks hitting the daily limit or rising over 10%, including Aerospace Huanyu and Guangwei Composites [5] - The oil and petrochemical sector led the market, with stocks like Intercontinental Oil and Unified Shares reaching the daily limit, while several banks also experienced gains of over 3% [5] - The lithium battery supply chain faced declines, with significant drops in retail stocks and sectors like Hainan Free Trade Zone and cross-border e-commerce [2][5] Market Outlook - Citic Securities indicated that the A-share market has entered a cross-year rally, driven by positive signals from the Shanghai Composite Index and optimistic expectations from institutional investors [7] - The market is expected to experience a "spring surge" as liquidity improves and policy expectations rise, with the overall market showing signs of strength [7] - Guosheng Securities noted that while the market is still in a phase of adjustment, there are opportunities for investors to position themselves ahead of potential upward movements [8] Investment Recommendations - Huatai Securities suggested that despite a short-term market adjustment, there is potential for a spring rally, recommending investments in sectors such as batteries, chemicals, military, and consumer goods [9] - The report emphasized the importance of focusing on stocks with pricing power and policy support within these sectors [9]

严把建设项目环境准入关 按照要求，"两高"项目暂按煤电、石化、化工、钢铁、有色金属冶炼、建材等六个行业类别统计， 后续对"两高"范围国家如有明确规定的，从其规定。 生态环境部日前下发的《关于加强高耗能、高排放建设项目生态环境源头防控的指导意见》(下称 《指导意见》)提出，将严格"两高"项目环评审批，推进"两高"行业减污降碳协同控制，并将碳排放影 响评价纳入环境影响评价体系。 ...

宏观：双主线引爆市场：有色金属狂欢与人民币升值 【市场资讯】1）2026 年全国两会召开时间来了：政协 3 月 4 日，人大 3 月 5 日。2）财政 部：2026 年继续实施更加积极的财政政策，扩大财政支出盘子，继续支持消费品以旧换新。 3）中国 11 月规模以上工业企业利润同比下降 13.1%，前 11 个月同比微增，高技术制造业 利润增速加快。工业生产和利润率的下滑是利润增速收窄的主因。4）香港财政司司长陈茂 波：三方面助力人民币国际化，吸引全球优质公司来港上市，开拓国际黄金交易新机遇。5） 克里姆林宫：俄美总统均认为以公投为借口暂时停火只会延长俄乌冲突。特朗普称俄乌均 有意结束冲突，美乌将达成安全协议。6）芝商所 12 月 26 日发布重大保证金调整通知称， 将于 12 月 29 日收盘后，全面上调黄金、白银、锂等金属期货品种的履约保证金。 金融期货早评 【核心逻辑】上周市场呈现有色金属强势上涨与人民币汇率加速升值的双主线特征。有色 金属板块中，白银表现尤为突出。本轮白银上涨是供需格局、资金动向及比价效应共同作 用的结果，但短期涨幅过高叠加明年 1 月大宗商品指数调仓带来的减持压力，需警惕回调 风险， ...

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——直击茅台经销商大会：2000多人周末齐聚！重大变革公布：涉及茅台酒价 格、分销等，董事长陈华：经销商不能再"躺着赚钱" 2025年1至6月份，电投能源的营业收入构成为：有色金属冶炼占比55.85%，煤炭行业占比31.02%，新 能源发电行业占比7.58%，煤电电热力行业占比5.54%。 每经AI快讯，电投能源（SZ 002128，最新价：27.71元）12月29日午间发布公告称，公司2025年第十五 次董事会临时会议于2025年12月28日以现场与视频结合方式召开。会议审议了《关于公司经理层成员 2024-2027岗位聘任和任期经营业绩指标分解原则的议案》等文件。 （记者 王瀚黎） ...

12月26日，吉利百矿百色厂区内，铝锭、轮毂等产品不断从生产线下线，货运车辆进进出出，生产 繁忙有序。 "要是没得到专业的维权指导，我们可能蒙受巨额损失，企业品牌形象也会受重创。"吉利百矿集团 法务合规部部长罗治海回想起知识产权纠纷的化解过程，仍难掩感激之情。 从精准维权的"及时雨"到规范执法的"暖心策"，广西法治服务的覆盖面不断拓宽，触角持续延伸至 经营主体发展的各个场景： 崇左爱店口岸的"零点警务"24小时值守，第一时间调解夜间边贸纠纷，让跨境客商安心经营； 南宁市13个园区公共法律服务工作室精准服务7.39万家企业，将专业法治服务送到企业"家门口"； 北海海事法院高效化解涉外海事纠纷，赢得境外企业点赞；中国—东盟商事仲裁协作中心等平台相 继落地，让跨境纠纷解决更高效。 这起维权案例，正是广西以法治赋能营商环境、护航民营企业发展的生动写照。 企业的"急难愁盼"，就是法治服务的着力点。当时，接到吉利百矿的求助后，百色市市场监管局立 即组织专业力量对接，为企业量身定制维权解决方案。"我们建议企业在原使用范围内标注字号，可以 基于在先使用进行抗辩侵权指控；同时指导企业搜集证据，申请撤销区外某公司连续3年未实际使 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market sentiment is positive, with various sectors showing different trends. The stock index futures still have the potential to break through at the end of the year, while the bond market is supported by the loose capital situation. In the agricultural products sector, there are different trends in various varieties, such as the overall shock in the protein meal market and the strong domestic sugar price. In the black metal sector, steel prices are in a range - bound shock, and the double - coke shows a wide - range shock. In the non - ferrous metal sector, the prices of gold, silver, and copper are strong. In the energy and chemical sector, the oil price is weak, and the asphalt is in a narrow - range shock [21][23][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market continued to rise last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising steadily after breaking through 3900 points. The short - term shock near 4000 points increased. Before the New Year's Day, there are only three trading days, and the negative factors are limited. The index has broken through the suppression of the 60 - day moving average, and the moving average system is arranged in a long position. The futures discount has continued to converge this week. The trading strategy is to go long on dips in a shock - upward trend, wait for the discount to widen for IM/IC long 2603 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use bull spreads for options [21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The loose market capital situation at the end of the year continues to support the bond market. The bond futures market closed up last week. However, the central bank's regular meeting did not release much incremental information, and the probability of a central bank interest rate cut in the short term is not high. The trading strategy is to try to go short on TS and TF contracts at high levels and wait and see for arbitrage [23]. 3.2 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indexes declined. In Brazil, the abundant rainfall is beneficial to the soybean crop, and the expected output is increased. The domestic soybean meal crushing profit is still significantly in the red, and the supply is uncertain. The trading strategy is to lay out a small number of long orders, narrow the MRM spread for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [25][26]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price fluctuated slightly downward, while the domestic sugar price remained strong. The Brazilian sugar is gradually entering the harvest stage, and the market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. The domestic sugar price is at a low level, with high processing costs and the upward trend of the external market providing support. The trading strategy is to expect the international sugar price to fluctuate slightly upward at the bottom in the short term and the domestic sugar price to maintain an upward trend. Wait and see for arbitrage and sell put options [28][31][33]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The domestic soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing, and the rapeseed oil is still affected by policies. The overall oil price has rebounded, but factors such as the postponement of the US biodiesel final plan and the high inventory of Malaysian palm oil may suppress the upward space. The trading strategy is to consider going long on palm oil after a stable stop - fall, but the upward height may be limited. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [34][35][36]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The US corn price is weak, and the domestic corn spot price is stable in the short term, with pressure in the later stage. The trading strategy is to go long on the 03 and 07 corn contracts on dips and wait and see for arbitrage and options [38][39]. - **Hogs**: The hog price has shown a phased upward trend, but the overall supply pressure still exists. The trading strategy is to consider short - selling at high points, wait and see for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [40][41][42]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates in a narrow range. The trading strategy is that the 05 peanut contract fluctuates at the bottom, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [43][44][46]. - **Eggs**: The egg price has declined slightly. In the short term, the near - month contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the long term, the price is expected to strengthen after the Spring Festival, but the increase may be limited. The trading strategy is to go long on the far - month contract on dips, wait and see for arbitrage and options [47][48][50]. - **Apples**: The apple demand is average, and the price is mainly stable. This year's apple production has decreased, and the effective inventory is expected to be low. The trading strategy is to expect short - term range - bound fluctuations, use the strategy of long 1 and short 10 for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [52][54][55]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The new cotton sales are good, and the cotton price fluctuates strongly. The Xinjiang cotton planting area is expected to be compressed in 2026, and the sales progress is fast. The trading strategy is that the US cotton is expected to fluctuate in a range, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly, with a possible short - term correction risk. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [56][57][59]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Steel**: The black metal sector showed a shock - strong trend last night. The five major steel products continued to reduce production, and the inventory continued to decline. The steel price is supported by costs, and the steel mills have restocking expectations, but the resumption of iron - making at the end of the month may suppress the upward space. The trading strategy is to maintain a shock - strong short - term trend, short the coil - coal ratio at high points for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [61][62]. - **Double - Coke**: The market is in a large - scale game, and there is no main trading logic. The coking coal auction in Shanxi has shown signs of stabilization, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased. The trading strategy is to expect a wide - range shock and wait and see [65][66]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price fluctuated last Friday night. The supply is in a loose pattern, and the domestic terminal steel demand has declined. The trading strategy is to expect the price to fluctuate and wait and see for arbitrage and options [68][69]. - **Ferroalloys**: The commodity market sentiment is strong, and ferroalloys follow the short - term rebound. However, the upward space is limited by demand. The trading strategy is to follow the short - term rebound, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [70][71][72]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The prices of gold and silver rose sharply last Friday. The CME raised the margin of silver futures contracts, and the market sentiment is high. The trading strategy is to consider taking partial profits on long gold and silver orders before the New Year's Day holiday, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy put options to protect the remaining long positions [74][75][78]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The platinum and palladium markets are in a wide - range shock period of capital game. The macro - environment is relatively loose, and the demand prospects are boosted by news. The trading strategy is to go long on dips based on the MA5 daily line, choose the opportunity to go long on platinum and short on palladium for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [78][79][82]. - **Copper**: The copper price hit a new high last Friday night. The macro - environment provides liquidity, and the supply is tight. The trading strategy is to control positions in the short term and go long on dips in the long term. Pay attention to the opportunity of calendar spread arbitrage and wait and see for options [83][84][85]. - **Alumina**: The policy expectation promotes the price increase, which resonates with the expectation of basis convergence. The trading strategy is to be cautious about chasing the rise, wait and see for arbitrage and options [86][87]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The aluminum price is strong along with the sector. The global shortage pattern remains, and the domestic downstream demand has resilience. The trading strategy is to expect the price to be strong along with the sector, wait and see for arbitrage and options [88][90][91]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and the aluminum alloy price runs at a high level along with the aluminum price. The trading strategy is to expect high - level fluctuations, wait and see for arbitrage and options [92][93][95]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price is strong along with the non - ferrous sector, but the fundamentals are under pressure. The trading strategy is to expect wide - range fluctuations, wait and see for arbitrage and options [97][98][99]. - **Lead**: The lead price is strong due to low inventory and the influence of the macro and capital aspects. The fundamentals are weak in supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a range. The trading strategy is to take partial profits on long orders, wait and see for arbitrage and options [99][100][102]. - **Nickel**: Nickel is a weak variety in the strong sector and has a supplementary increase. The Indonesian policy is undetermined, and the demand lacks growth points. The trading strategy is to pay attention to the sustainability of the upward trend, wait and see for arbitrage and options [103][105][106]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel price is strong along with the nickel price. The social inventory is decreasing, and the price is supported, but the upward space is limited. The trading strategy is to pay attention to the sustainability of the nickel price increase, wait and see for arbitrage and options [107][108]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon is in a short - term rebound, and the demand in the first quarter of 2026 is pessimistic. The trading strategy is to sell short on rallies in the medium term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [109]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon is expected to be strong in the long term, but pay attention to risk management in the short term. The trading strategy is to buy on dips, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon for arbitrage, and sell put options [110][112]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price runs at a high level. The trading strategy is to control positions and be cautious in operation, wait and see for arbitrage and options [113][114][115]. 3.5 Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate has different views on the high point in January, and the short - term is expected to maintain a shock. The demand is expected to improve from December to January, and the supply has little change. The trading strategy is to take most profits on long EC2602 contracts at high points and hold a small position lightly. The far - month contracts may be suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations. Wait and see for arbitrage [116][117]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The cease - fire agreement is advancing, and the oil price is running weakly. The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. The trading strategy is to expect a weak shock, the domestic gasoline is neutral, the diesel is weak, and the oil price calendar spread is weak. Wait and see for options [119][120]. - **Asphalt**: The cost support is limited, and the asphalt price fluctuates in a narrow range. The trading strategy is to expect a shock, and the BU2602 contract refers to the range of 2900 - 3050. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [121][123]. - **Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be in a weak shock before the end of January. The trading strategy is to be bearish, the low - sulfur cracking spread and the high - sulfur cracking spread are weak, and wait and see for options [125][126]. - **Natural Gas**: The LNG is in a low - level shock, and the HH is rebounding. The trading strategy is to continue to hold long HH2602 contracts, wait and see for arbitrage and options [127][128]. - **LPG**: The LPG spot price is weakening, and the futures are consolidating. The trading strategy is to go short on the far - month contracts on rallies, use the 03 - 04 reverse spread for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [130][131]. - **PX&PTA**: The PX and PTA prices have fallen from high levels due to polyester filament production cuts and cost weakening. The trading strategy is to expect high - level fluctuations, use the PX&PTA 3 and 5 contracts for calendar spread arbitrage, and wait and see for options [131][132][134]. - **BZ&EB**: The pure - benzene port inventory continues to rise, and the unexpected maintenance of styrene boosts sentiment. The trading strategy is to expect a shock - strong trend, go short on pure benzene and long on styrene for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [134][137][138]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Some devices boost market buying sentiment due to production cuts or shutdowns. The trading strategy is to expect short - term wide - range fluctuations and medium - term weak shocks. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [139][140]. - **Short - Fiber**: The raw material price is strong, and the processing fee is under pressure. The trading strategy is to expect the price to fluctuate strongly, wait and see for arbitrage and options [141][142]. - **Bottle - Chip**: The bottle - chip price fluctuates with the cost side, and the supply - demand situation is relatively loose. The trading strategy is to expect the price to fluctuate strongly, wait and see for arbitrage and options [143][144][145]. - **Propylene**: The propylene supply pressure increases. The trading strategy is to expect wide - range fluctuations, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell straddle options [146][147]. - **Plastic PP**: The PP warehouse receipts have returned to the level in mid - December. The trading strategy is to try to go long on the L 2605 contract in a small amount, set a stop - loss at 6320 points; wait and see for the PP 2605 contract. Try to go long on the SPC L2605&PP2605 spread in a small amount and set a stop - loss at +118 points. Sell the PP2605 - put - 6100 contract at an opportunity and set a stop - loss at 137.0 points [148][149][150]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda price fluctuates. The trading strategy is to expect a shock, wait and see for arbitrage and options [151][153][154]. - **PVC**: The PVC rebound is weak. The trading strategy is to expect a continuous rebound, wait and see for arbitrage and options [155][156][157]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda - ash price is expected to fluctuate weakly this week. The trading strategy is to expect a weak price this week, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options at high points on the far - month contracts [157][158][159]. - **Glass**: The glass futures price fluctuates. The trading strategy is to expect the price to continue to decline this week, wait and see for arbitrage and options [160][161]. - **Methanol**: The methanol continues to fluctuate. The trading strategy is to go long on the 05 contract at low levels without chasing the rise, pay attention to the 5 - 9 calendar spread arbitrage, and sell put options on pullbacks [162][163]. - **Urea**: The urea shows signs of fatigue. The trading strategy is to expect a short - term correction, pay attention to the phosphate fertilizer control policy, wait and see for arbitrage and options [164][165]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: The tires are accumulating inventory. The trading strategy is to go short in the short term without chasing the short, wait and see for arbitrage and options [166][167][168]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The tires are accumulating inventory. The trading strategy is to try to go long on the BR 02 contract at an opportunity and set a stop - loss at 11450 points; hold the BR2603 - NR2603 spread (2 lots vs 1 lot) and set a stop - loss at - 1240 points. Wait and see for options [171][172][173].

文字早评 2025/12/29 星期一 宏观金融类 【行情资讯】 1、央行报告：着力健全有利于"长钱长投"的制度政策环境，显著提高各类中长期资金实际投资 A 股 的规模和比例； 2、商业火箭企业适用科创板第五套上市标准细化规则发布，对于承担国家任务、参与国家工程项目的 商业火箭企业，予以优先支持； 3、中国首批 L3 级自动驾驶汽车开启规模化上路运行； 4、国际金银续创新高。COMEX 黄金期货、现货黄金涨超 1%，本周累涨约 4%；COMEX 白银期货、现货白 银均涨超 10%，本周累涨约 18%。现货钯金收涨超 14%，本周累涨超 12%；现货铂金收涨超 10%，本周累 涨超 24%。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.01%/-0.33%/-0.40%/-1.42%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.03%/-0.58%/-0.95%/-3.41%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.14%/-0.99%/-1.75%/-4.88%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.09%/0.06%/0.20%/-0.07%。 【策略观点】 年底部分资金兑现收益，市场面临一定的不确定性。但从 ...