Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and commodity futures. It assesses market trends, key factors influencing prices, and offers corresponding investment suggestions based on different market conditions. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market showed an upward trend, with cyclical sectors rising. The four major stock index futures contracts also increased, and the basis of the main contracts was seasonally repaired. With the market breaking through the annual high, it is recommended to gradually take profits on the long positions of IM futures and switch to a small amount of short positions in the MO put options with an exercise price of 6000 for the 08 contract, reducing the position and maintaining a moderately bullish stance [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The risk appetite has recovered, causing the bond market to decline across the board. Although the current fundamentals are still in a weak stabilization state, which is generally favorable for the bond market, the macro situation is complex in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, pay attention to the capital situation and incremental policies, and consider appropriately betting on a steeper yield curve [5][6]. Precious Metals - The trade friction between the US and the EU and concerns about the US fiscal deficit have intensified, leading to a decline in the US dollar and a continuous rise in precious metals. Gold has a long - term bullish trend, and silver has further upward potential above $38 in the short term. It is recommended to hold long positions in silver [7][9][11]. Shipping Futures (Container Shipping) - The EC main contract fluctuated. The spot price increase drove the rise of the 08 contract, but the cancellation of the high - price quotes by CMA may impact the near - month contracts. It is expected that the near - month contracts will fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to short the 08 contract or short the 10 contract on rallies [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Driven by the anti - involution policy, the copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly. Although the demand weakens during the off - season, the domestic macro - policy support and low inventory provide a bottom for the copper price. The main contract is expected to trade between 78,500 and 81,000 [14][17]. - **Alumina**: Affected by the expected capacity elimination and the increasing risk of a short squeeze, the price is expected to be strong in the short term and trade above 3100 yuan. In the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies due to the potential oversupply [17][19]. - **Aluminum**: The market sentiment is bullish, but the off - season inventory accumulation expectation is strong. The price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, with the main contract trading between 20,200 and 21,000 [20][22]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In the off - season, the terminal consumption is weak, and the social inventory in the main consumption areas is close to full capacity. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract trading between 19,400 and 20,200 [22][24]. - **Zinc**: The inventory has decreased both at home and abroad, and the macro sentiment has boosted the price. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract trading between 22,000 and 23,500 [25][28]. - **Tin**: The market sentiment is strong, but the supply is expected to recover, and the demand is expected to be weak. It is recommended to avoid short positions for now and short on rallies after the sentiment stabilizes [28][31]. - **Nickel**: The macro sentiment has boosted the price, but the industrial overcapacity still restricts the upside. The price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract trading between 118,000 and 126,000 [31][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price fluctuates strongly, but the demand is still weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract trading between 12,600 and 13,200 [35][37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by the strong macro sentiment, the price continues to rise, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The price is expected to trade strongly in the short term, with the main contract trading between 68,000 and 74,000. It is recommended to wait and see [38][42]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The anti - involution expectation has strengthened, driving up the steel price. The profit of steel mills has increased, and the production enthusiasm has recovered. It is recommended to hold long positions and avoid short positions, with potential resistance at 3250 for rebar and 3400 for hot - rolled coils [43][46]. - **Iron Ore**: The market sentiment has improved, and the increase in molten iron production and steel mill replenishment support the price. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to hold long positions and consider going long on dips for the 2509 contract [47][48]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction flow - rate has decreased, and the coal mine复产 progress is lower than expected. The spot price is strong, and the demand for downstream replenishment is increasing. It is recommended to hold long positions and consider going long on dips for the 09 contract [49][52]. - **Coke**: The second round of price increases has been initiated by mainstream coking plants. The price is expected to continue to rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions and consider going long on dips for the 09 contract [53][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: The US soybeans have strong support at the bottom, and the import cost supports the domestic meal price. It is recommended to operate cautiously with a bullish bias [56][58]. - **Pigs**: Policy support benefits the pig futures, but the spot price fluctuates. The short - term sentiment is still strong, but there is pressure above 14,500 for the 09 contract [59][61]. - **Corn**: The market sentiment is basically stable, and the price rebounds and fluctuates. In the short term, the supply is tight, and the demand has resilience. It is recommended to focus on short - term trading and pay attention to subsequent policy auctions [62][63].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the macro - financial sector, the stock index may have opportunities for style conversion, and the bond market is expected to have a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term. In the commodity market, different metals and energy - chemical products have different supply - demand and price trends, and the agricultural product market also presents diverse price and supply - demand situations [3][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial Category Stock Index - Macro news includes the release of the "Housing Rental Regulations", the plan to boost the stock market in Hong Kong, the A - share equity distribution of BYD, and the tense situation of US - EU trade negotiations [2]. - The basis ratios of stock index futures are provided. The trading logic suggests paying attention to the impact of US tariffs overseas and the expectations of the "Central Political Bureau Meeting" in July domestically. It is recommended to go long on IF stock index futures on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. There are important international events such as the upcoming visit of EU leaders to China and the change in the result of the Japanese Senate election. The central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [4]. - The economic data in the second quarter is resilient, and the export continues to grow. However, the export - rushing effect may weaken. The central bank's actions show its attitude of protecting funds, and the bond market is expected to have a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term. It is recommended to enter the market on dips [5][6]. Precious Metals - The prices of Shanghai gold and silver rose, while COMEX silver fell slightly. The independence of the Fed is being interfered with, and the prices of precious metals are strong. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on precious metals [7][8]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - The price of copper rose. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory also decreased. The import was in a loss, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased. The price is expected to have limited rebound due to factors such as the approaching US copper tariff execution time [10]. Aluminum - The price of aluminum increased. The domestic inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly, and the overseas inventory also increased. The price is expected to continue to rise in the short - term but may follow the market due to factors such as the off - season and weak export demand [11]. Zinc - The price of zinc increased. The domestic zinc ore supply is still abundant, and the zinc ingot supply is expected to increase. In the short - term, the price may be strong due to factors such as the dovish Fed atmosphere, but it is bearish in the long - term [12][13]. Lead - The price of lead rose. The supply of lead ingots is relatively abundant, and the demand is affected by the anti - dumping tariff in the Middle East. The price is expected to be weak [14]. Nickel - The price of nickel was strong. The price of nickel ore is expected to decline, and the price of nickel iron is under pressure. The demand for refined nickel is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [15]. Tin - The price of tin fluctuated upwards. The supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but the domestic smelters are facing raw material supply pressure. The demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [16][17]. Carbonate Lithium - The price of carbonate lithium rose. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, and the market sentiment is positive. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [18]. Alumina - The price of alumina increased. The spot price in different regions rose, and the import window was closed. The futures price is expected to be strong in the short - term, but the over - capacity pattern may remain in the long - term. It is recommended to wait and see [19]. Stainless Steel - The price of stainless steel increased. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the price is expected to rise slightly in the short - term due to policy support [20]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The price of casting aluminum alloy increased. The downstream is in the off - season, and the supply and demand are both weak. The price may rise further but has difficulty in continuous increase [21]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased. The supply side may eliminate over - capacity, and the demand side is supported by large - scale infrastructure. The inventory is at a low level, and the price is expected to continue to rise. The market needs to pay attention to policy signals and terminal demand [23][24]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore increased. The supply of overseas iron ore is recovering, and the demand is strong. The port inventory increased slightly, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - The price of glass increased. The market sentiment is positive, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to rise strongly in the short - term [27]. - The price of soda ash increased. The demand is still weak, and the supply is relatively loose. The price may be strong in the short - term but has limited upside in the long - term [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon increased. The industry has an over - capacity pattern, and the demand is expected to weaken. The price is affected by market sentiment in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [30][31]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon increased. The supply is in excess, and the demand is insufficient. The price is affected by market sentiment in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Category Rubber - The prices of NR and RU rose. The market has different views on the rise and fall of rubber prices. The tire enterprise开工率 increased, and the inventory situation is complex. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on rubber prices and be cautious in the short - term [38][39][42]. Crude Oil - The price of WTI crude oil fell slightly, and the price of INE crude oil rose. The fundamental market is healthy, but the seasonal demand in August may limit the upside. It is recommended to go long on dips and take profits [43]. Methanol - The price of methanol increased. The upstream开工率 decreased, and the demand is weak. The price is affected by market sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - allocate in the sector [44]. Urea - The price of urea increased. The domestic开工率 decreased slightly, and the demand is supported by compound fertilizer production and exports. The price has support below but limited upside. It is recommended to pay attention to long - allocation opportunities on dips [45]. Styrene - The price of styrene increased. The cost side supply is abundant, and the supply side开工率 increased. The inventory increased, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to follow the cost side [46][47]. PVC - The price of PVC increased. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The cost support is weakening, and the price is expected to be under pressure in the long - term [48]. Ethylene Glycol - The price of ethylene glycol increased. The supply side开工率 decreased, and the demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, but the de - stocking is expected to slow down. The price is expected to turn weak in the long - term [49]. PTA - The price of PTA increased. The supply side is expected to accumulate inventory, and the demand is in the off - season. The processing fee has limited repair space, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities following PX on dips [50]. p - Xylene - The price of p - xylene increased. The检修 season is over, and the downstream demand is high. The inventory is low, and the price is expected to continue to de - stock. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities following crude oil on dips [51]. Polyethylene PE - The price of polyethylene increased. The EU's sanctions on Russia may affect the price. The demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to fluctuate downward [52]. Polypropylene PP - The price of polypropylene increased. The supply side开工率 may increase, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be bearish in July, and it is recommended to wait and see [53]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - The price of live pigs fluctuated. The supply is expected to increase slightly in the short - term, and the demand is weak. The price may rise again in August but is difficult to reach a new high. It is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips and short - sell the far - month contracts after rebounds [55]. Eggs - The price of eggs was mostly stable. The supply pressure is relieved, and the market sentiment is positive. The short - term price may fluctuate, and it is recommended to short - sell the 09 and later contracts after rebounds [56]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The price of US soybeans fluctuated. The domestic soybean meal price increased slightly. The supply is high in the short - term, and the demand is strong. The price is affected by factors such as Sino - US trade relations, and it is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to supply - side changes [57][58]. Oils and Fats - The price of palm oil rose. The export and production data of palm oil in Malaysia are complex. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level. The price is expected to be volatile due to factors such as the US biodiesel policy and the annual - level production increase [59][60][61]. Sugar - The price of sugar fluctuated. The domestic import of sugar increased in June. The price is expected to decline if the international price does not rebound significantly [62][63]. Cotton - The price of cotton fell slightly. The downstream consumption is average, and the market expects the issuance of import quotas, which is a potential negative factor for the price [64][65].

文字早评 2025/07/21 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 宏观消息面： 1、李强出席雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工仪式 并宣布工程开工，工程主要采取截弯取直、隧洞引水 的开发方式，建设 5 座梯级电站，总投资约 1.2 万亿元； 行情方面：周五，TL 主力合约下跌 0.22%，收于 120.46；T 主力合约下跌 0.08%，收于 108.790；TF 主 力合约下跌 0.05%，收于 105.990；TS 主力合约下跌 0.00%，收于 102.434。 消息方面：1、中国人民银行研究起草了《中国人民银行关于修改部分规章的决定（征求意见稿）》， 现向社会公开征求意见。《决定》主要包括以下内容：一是明确上海清算所是债券登记托管结算机构的 法定地位。二是为便于公开市场买卖国债等货币政策操作和促进债券市场高水平对外开放，取消对债券 回购的质押券进行冻结的规定。三是根据现行实践，修改金融债券信息披露管理的有关规定。2、美国 7 月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值 61.8，预期 61.5，6 月终值 60.7。 流动性：央行周五进行 1875 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率为 1.4%。因当日有 847 亿元逆回购到期 ...

锡周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年7月20日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锡：佤邦发放许可证 强弱分析：偏弱 价格区间：260000-265000元/吨 本周冶炼厂开工率明显回升 本周社会库存基本持平 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 01-03 01-13 01-26 02-10 02-23 03-04 03-15 03-25 04-07 04-18 04-28 05-10 05-20 05-31 06-13 06-24 07-05 07-15 07-28 08-11 08-25 09-08 09-22 10-11 10-25 11-08 11-19 12-01 12-10 12-22 12-31 % 精炼锡_两省合计开工率 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 01-03 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The 50% tariff on copper imports announced by the US may not fully price in the CL spread in the short - term, and the low inventories in China and LME may rebound in Q3 [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand, and reverse spreads between distant months and inside - outside spreads can be considered under the low - inventory pattern [1]. - Zinc maintains a short - allocation idea, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended; long inside - outside spreads can be held, and attention can be paid to positive spreads between months [2]. - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are average, and opportunities for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [6]. - Stainless steel is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to weak fundamentals [10]. - Lead is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week, and attention should be paid to the terminal consumption destocking strength [12]. - Tin is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and short - term observation is recommended [14]. - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate if the start - up does not recover significantly in the short term [16]. - Carbonate lithium is expected to oscillate, and a downward inflection point requires significant accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot [18]. Summary by Metals Copper - Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports, and COMEX copper rose 16%. The US has imported over 860,000 tons of copper in 2025, filling the rigid import gap, so the 50% tariff may not be fully priced in the short - term. Attention should be paid to exemption situations. After the tariff is implemented, the low inventories in China and LME may rebound in Q3 [1]. Aluminum - Supply increased slightly from January to May. In July, demand is expected to weaken seasonally, and supply and demand are expected to be balanced. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and reverse spreads [1]. Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply is expected to increase by over 5,000 tons in July. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is also weak. There is a risk of a short squeeze when LME inventory is below 100,000 tons. Short - allocation, long inside - outside spreads, and positive spreads between months are recommended [2]. Nickel - Pure nickel production remains high, and nickel bean imports increased in May. Demand is weak, and LME premium strengthened slightly. Overseas nickel plate inventory is stable, and domestic inventory decreased slightly. The worry about ore - end disturbances has eased, and attention can be paid to the contraction opportunity of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6]. Stainless Steel - Supply has been reduced passively since late May. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. Costs are stable. Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [10]. Lead - Lead prices declined slightly this week. Supply from scrap is weak, and demand from batteries is also weak. It is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week, and attention should be paid to terminal consumption destocking [12]. Tin - Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply may decline slightly in July - August due to low processing fees and upcoming maintenance. Demand from soldering tin is limited, and the growth of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to slow down. It is recommended to observe in the short term [14]. Industrial Silicon - The start - up changed little this week. Output is expected to decline in July and subsequent months, and the market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to destocking. It is expected to oscillate if the start - up does not recover significantly [16]. Carbonate Lithium - The futures price of carbonate lithium rebounded from a low level. Supply and demand are both strong in the short term, and inventory pressure is gradually accumulating. It is expected to oscillate, and a downward inflection point requires significant accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot [18].

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运欧线 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 2025 年 7 月 18 日星期五 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors in the futures market, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity futures. It provides market conditions, news, capital flows, and operational suggestions for each sector, aiming to offer investors insights into market trends and potential investment opportunities [1]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A-share market showed a decline with volume contraction, and structural themes were active. Four major stock index futures contracts had mixed performance. Amid new US trade policy negotiation windows, it's advisable to adopt a wait-and-see approach [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market was in a narrow - range oscillation. With the central bank's increased open - market operations, the bond market sentiment improved. A range - bound operation strategy is recommended, and one can consider a curve - steepening strategy [5][6][7]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Rumors of Trump dismissing the Fed chairman affected market sentiment, causing precious metals to rise. Gold has a long - term upward trend, but currently lacks a clear driver. Silver may have further upward potential, and it's recommended to buy on dips [8][10][11]. Container Shipping (European Routes) - **Container Shipping Futures**: The futures market oscillated downward. The 08 contract is expected to be strong, and it's advisable to be bullish on it [13][14]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: US tariffs will change the supply pattern, and the market will focus on Sino - US tariff negotiations. The short - term view is a weakening oscillation [15][16][19]. - **Alumina**: Spot supply is temporarily tight, but the medium - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. It's recommended to short on rallies [19][20][21]. - **Aluminum**: High - level prices are under pressure. The short - term view is a wide - range oscillation [21][22][23]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The market is in a weak state during the off - season, with a weakening oscillation expected [24][25]. - **Zinc**: Inventories are increasing, and demand is expected to be weak. The short - term view is an oscillation [26][28][29]. - **Tin**: Supply is expected to recover, and it's recommended to hold short positions [30][31][32]. - **Nickel**: The market oscillates strongly, but industrial overcapacity restricts upward movement. The short - term view is an interval adjustment [32][33][35]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market oscillates, with the short - term view being an interval operation [36][37][38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is strong due to news, but fundamental pressure remains. The short - term view is a strong - range oscillation [39][40][42]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Valuation is being repaired, and the market may enter an oscillating phase [43][45]. - **Iron Ore**: The market is oscillating strongly. It's recommended to go long on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread operation [46][47]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices are strong, and it's recommended to go long on dips and conduct a long - iron - ore short - coking - coal spread operation [49][50][51]. - **Coke**: The price is expected to rebound. It's recommended to go long on dips and conduct a long - iron - ore short - coke spread operation [52][55][57]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: US soybeans have strong bottom support, and domestic meal prices are supported by rising import costs. It's advisable to be cautiously bullish [58][59][60]. - **Pigs**: There is potential supply pressure, and it's recommended to go short on rallies [61][62]. - **Corn**: The market sentiment is weak, and the market is oscillating and correcting [63].

国投安信期货表示，近期氧化铝现货上涨趋势缓和，国内氧化铝运行产能回升至历史高位进入过剩状 态，几内亚矿企存在复产预期，但上期所仓单库存依然仅两万余吨，期货暂难深跌，关注现货成交价格 变化。 7月17日，国内期市有色金属板块多数飘绿。其中，氧化铝期货主力合约开盘报3100.0元/吨，今日盘中 低位震荡运行；截至午间收盘，氧化铝主力最高触及3123.0元，下方探低3055.0元，跌幅达2.39%。 目前来看，氧化铝行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于氧化铝后市行情将如何运行，相关机构 观点汇总如下： 南华期货（603093）指出，有消息表示顺达矿业将于8月复产，矿端报价有所下调。基本面方面，随着 氧化铝利润修复，企业持续复产陆续发生，氧化铝运行产能持续增加，预计累库将继续。目前考虑到7 月将有进口氧化铝到港且当前氧化铝仍有生产利润复产与新投产还在继续，同时随着新疆发运问题解决 各地向新疆交仓增加，氧化铝挤仓风险降低。总的来说，氧化铝供应过剩预期暂时还未改变，随着期现 价差拉平，上行动力有所减弱短期或维持高位震荡，推荐逢高沽空远月合约。 铜冠金源期货分析称，暂时氧化铝基于仍较为可控的有限现货流动量和向上惯性，现 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The decline in absolute prices has not stimulated downstream continuous restocking, and the spot premium has further declined slightly. The import concentrate TC is still rising, and the domestic smelting profit is still substantial. The expectation of supply surplus in the second half of the year remains unchanged. Although the downstream consumption shows some resilience, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side. The social inventory is showing a trend of accumulation, and it is expected that this trend will continue in the second half of the year. The continuous increase in overseas inventory and rapid accumulation of social inventory will put pressure on zinc prices. [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$9.95 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 100 yuan/ton to 22,050 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, with the premium unchanged at 30 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 110 yuan/ton to 21,970 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to -50 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin zinc spot price dropped by 110 yuan/ton to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to -20 yuan/ton. [1] - **Futures**: On July 16, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,040 yuan/ton and closed at 22,045 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 89,469 lots, a decrease of 29,569 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 78,311 lots, a decrease of 5,993 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 22,065 yuan/ton and a low of 21,965 yuan/ton. [1] - **Inventory**: As of July 14, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 93,100 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared to the previous week. As of July 16, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 121,350 tons, an increase of 2,750 tons from the previous trading day. [2] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The decline in absolute prices has not stimulated downstream continuous restocking. The downstream raw material inventory is relatively sufficient, and the spot premium has further declined slightly. [3] - **Cost Side**: The import concentrate TC is still rising. Vedanta's Q2 report shows a 7% year-on-year increase in zinc concentrate production. The domestic smelting profit is still substantial, and the expectation of supply surplus in the second half of the year remains unchanged. The smelter's raw material inventory has increased to 29.7 days, with sufficient raw material reserves, and the enthusiasm for purchasing from the concentrate side is not high. [3] - **Consumption Side**: The downstream operating rate shows relative resilience, and the overall consumption is not bad. However, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side, and the social inventory is showing a trend of accumulation. [3]

Group 1 - China's refined copper production in June reached 1.302 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.2% [1] - China's lead production in June totaled 660,000 tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [1] - China's zinc production in June amounted to 628,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year rise of 5.4% [1]