Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [6] Core View - The report focuses on multiple aspects including Sino-US economic and trade consultations, global trade policy games, US monetary policy, and commodity market trends. It emphasizes short - term attention on economic fact verification and long - term consideration of stagflation allocation [2][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On May 7, "One Bank, One Administration, One Commission" introduced a package of financial policies to boost the economy. The central bank launched ten monetary policy measures in three categories, including a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 0.1 - percentage - point policy interest rate cut. The financial regulatory authority will introduce eight incremental policies, and the CSRC aims to "continuously stabilize and activate the capital market" [2] - In April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 21% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN increased by 20.8% year - on - year. Labor - intensive product exports were significantly impacted [2] - From May 14, 2025, 12:01, the tariff rate on imported US goods was reduced from 34% to 10%, and an additional 24% tariff was suspended for 90 days [2] - On May 8, the UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade terms, with a "tax rate + volume" restriction approach. The US warned that tariff negotiations with Japan and South Korea would take time, and India countered US tariff policies [3] - The US May FOMC meeting kept the target interest rate unchanged. The April CPI data was lower than expected, but the impact of tariffs on the consumer side was not fully transmitted [4] Commodity Market - From the 2018 tariff review, the impact of tariff hikes on commodities first affects demand and then inflation. Agricultural products are more likely to have price increases due to tariffs, while energy products face a supply - loose situation in the medium - term [5] - China has stopped purchasing US soybeans and corn since mid - January and increased imports from Brazil. The IEA lowered the oil demand forecast, and OPEC + will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June [5] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [6] To - do News - On May 15, the Ministry of Commerce adjusted counter - tariff measures against the US in response to the US revocation of additional tariffs on China. China is open to the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism [8] - Trump mentioned progress in negotiations with Iran and an "almost zero - tariff" agreement intention with India. The APEC estimated that the GDP growth rate of the Asia - Pacific region in 2025 is 2.6%, lower than the previous 3.3% [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term, maintain a cautious long position for the four major stock index futures (IH/IF/IC/IM) in A - shares; maintain a cautious wait - and - see attitude for commodities and government bonds. The ranking is: stock index > government bonds > commodities. Among commodities, the ranking is: precious metals > non - ferrous metals > energy > black metals [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, in April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, far exceeding expectations, and the trade surplus was 96.81 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 34%. China and the US will hold trade talks, and the central bank has unexpectedly cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% and interest rates by 10BP, which will boost domestic risk appetite in the short term. Internationally, the US economic activities are still expanding steadily, the US - UK has reached a limited trade agreement, and the US - China trade negotiation has made progress. The Fed maintains the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5%, and the dollar rebounds in the short term, leading to an overall increase in global risk appetite [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Important News and Events - On May 5th, the US President announced to impose a 100% tariff on all foreign - made movies entering the US and will announce tariff measures on pharmaceutical products in the next two weeks. On May 6th, the US March trade deficit widened to a record 140.5 billion US dollars, and the US refused to cancel some tariffs on Japan. On May 7th, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and the US and the EU are in trade negotiations. On May 8th, the UK and the US reached a tariff trade agreement, and the EU announced a retaliatory list of 95 billion euros of US goods. On May 9th, the US President said that the US and China will conduct substantial trade negotiations this weekend, and the current 145% tariff on China will be lowered [3][4][5][6][10] 3.2 This Week's Important Events and Economic Data Reminders - From May 12th to May 16th, there will be a series of industrial data releases, including electrolytic aluminum inventory, iron ore shipping and arrival volume, etc., as well as important economic data such as the US CPI, PPI, and GDP data of various countries [11] 3.3 Global Asset Price Trends - Stock markets: Different stock indices in various countries have different price trends and changes. Bond markets: Yields of 10 - year bonds in different countries have different fluctuations. Commodity markets: Prices of various commodities such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and energy have different changes. Exchange rate markets: Exchange rates of major currencies have different degrees of fluctuations [12] 3.4 Domestic High - Frequency Macroeconomic Data - Upstream: Includes data on commodity price indices, energy prices, coal inventories, and iron ore prices. Mid - stream: Covers data on steel prices, production, and inventory, non - ferrous metal prices and inventory, building material prices and inventory, and chemical product prices and inventory. Downstream: Involves data on real estate transaction area, automobile sales, and agricultural product prices [13][42][71] 3.5 Domestic and Foreign Liquidity - Global liquidity: Shown by the US Treasury yield curve. Domestic liquidity: Reflected by central bank open - market operations, inter - bank lending rates, and bond yields [82][84] 3.6 Global Financial Calendar - From May 13th to May 16th, there are important economic data releases in the EU, the US, Germany, Japan, etc., including CPI, PPI, GDP, and other data [105]

Group 1 - The Geneva talks between China and the US have made substantial progress, with both sides agreeing to establish a trade negotiation mechanism, and a joint statement is expected to be released on Monday [2][8] - The US stock market showed mixed results, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices nearly flat as investors awaited clarity on US-China tariff negotiations [3] - The US Treasury yields remained stable, and trading volume decreased compared to usual levels, reflecting market uncertainty [3] Group 2 - The Trump administration has identified around 20 key trading partners for initial negotiations, including Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam, with Japan's Prime Minister aiming for a trade agreement before the July Senate elections [5] - The Federal Reserve officials have expressed concerns that tariffs could lead to rising inflation and unemployment, complicating monetary policy decisions [5] - The Chinese CPI data for April indicates that tariffs have caused deflation for the third consecutive month, prompting the People's Bank of China to focus on promoting reasonable price recovery in its monetary policy [8]

止损，永远是对的，错了也对！ 死扛，永远是错的，对了也错！ 横批：止损无条件！ 如果没有交易原则，那么，一切技术等于零！ 凌晨美联储年内第三次维持利率不变，美联储主席鲍威尔继续硬钢特朗普，对黄金而言构成利空！不过，美联储利率决议期间，黄金波动有限，主要因为特 朗普重返白宫后开启的全球"关税大战"成了市场的焦点，同时全球地缘局势云波诡谲，使得美联储影响力大打折扣！ 经过昨天欧美盘折腾后，今天先看区间，重点3360区域支撑，上方重点3400区域压制。向下破位，行情进一步走空，关注回撤3325--3300大关；向上突破， 则看涨3420--3440，甚至冲击历史新高！操作上，3360-3400区间内高抛低吸不追单，打破区间则顺势跟进一波！ 白银，窄幅波动，方向跟着黄金；昨天冲高33.3后大跌，接下来继续关注高空，短线32.2-32区域支撑先看反弹！ 昨天央妈降息降准，以应对当前市场不确定性，似乎影响并不大。当前，市场不缺钱，缺的是信心！消费贷款助力经济也就罢了，连养老都需要贷款了，也 是没法说。 基本面上，地缘局势依然是焦点，印巴冲突牵动全球的神经；俄乌和谈难以达成，冲突随时进一步加剧；美伊谈判各有各的底线，也是死 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in risk appetite following China's interest rate cuts and confirmation of trade talks with the U.S., leading to a rise in Asian stock markets and commodity prices [1][5][6] - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point cut in the policy interest rate, bringing it down from 1.5% to 1.4% [1] - The upcoming visit of China's Vice Premier He Lifeng to Switzerland for trade talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is expected to further influence market sentiment [1] Group 2 - Asian markets showed positive performance, with MSCI Emerging Markets up by 0.4%, and notable increases in indices such as the South Korean Composite Index and the MSCI Vietnam Index [5][6] - Commodity prices, including iron ore and steel futures, experienced upward trends, with significant gains in agricultural products like soybeans, corn, and wheat, all rising over 1% [6][7] - International oil prices continued to rebound, with WTI crude oil rising over 0.63% and Brent crude oil increasing by 0.50% [7][8]

五一假期，全球金融市场风险事件扎堆，日本央行一如预期维持利率不变，调降经济增长预估；美国4月 非农报告表现强劲，推后美联储降息预期；OPEC 同意6月石油产量增加41.1万桶/日，OPEC 料将进一步 加快增产步伐。 美国第一季度经济三年来首次萎缩，关税生效前企业大力囤货导致进口创纪录；美国4月制造业进一步萎 缩，关税挤压供应链令投入价格居高不下；美国初请失业金人数升至两个月最高，高于市场预期。 美国股市节节攀升，三大指数纷纷创出逾一个月高位，聚焦美联储政策前景；日本股市连续第七个交易 日上涨，创下2023年8月以来最长连涨纪录；香港恒生指数创近一个月新高，贸易紧张有缓和迹象；美元 指数从三周高位回落，就业数据良好且贸易局势缓和；离岸人民币对美元汇率升破7.20关口，为去年11月 以来首次。 大宗商品方面，CBOT大豆探底回升，一度跌至两周低点，受贸易战情绪影响；伦铜5月持续反弹，寄希 望于贸易紧张局势缓和；金价从两周低位回升，强劲的就业报告令金价承压；油价继续探底，因OPEC 将 加速增产引发供应增加担忧。 **美国股市连续第二周上涨** 美国股市在五一假期涨势明显，周线连续第二周上涨，三大股指创出逾一个月 ...

当特朗普宣誓就任美国第47任总统时，他宣称一个新的"黄金时代"已经来临。 在特朗普执政百日之际，那些从字面意义上相信他的话并买入贵金属的投资者获得了丰厚的回报。而那些认真对 待他的承诺并大量购入美国股票和美元的投资者却被辜负了。美国国债的买家也是如此，他们甚至看到美国国债 的避险地位都受到了质疑。 特朗普上任头100天各资产的回报 以下是对特朗普执政头100天各资产表现的具体分析： 股市 尽管近期有所企稳，但标普500指数自特朗普就职以来已下跌约8%，并有望创下半个世纪以来最差的总统任期开 局。 在连续两年实现超过20%的涨幅以及原本预期特朗普会推行促进增长的议程之后，华尔街几乎没有人预见到这种 情况的发生。相反，由于特朗普基本上对与美国公司开展业务的每个国家都加征了关税，随后又反复无常地调整 政策后，市场大幅波动。 新政府并没有通过一系列的减税措施和放松监管来激发美国经济和市场的主导地位，反而是大量的关税举措和地 缘政治的不确定性，引发了近年来历史上最为极端的一些市场波动。 美国股市在特朗普第二任期开始时接近历史高点，如今正朝着自1974年杰拉尔德・福特（Gerald Ford）以来总统 任期的最差百日表现 ...

Group 1: Rothschild Family - The Rothschild family is known for their historical financial maneuvers, such as Nathan Rothschild's strategic selling of British bonds during the Waterloo battle, which allowed them to profit significantly from the ensuing market panic [4][5] - The family maintains a low profile in modern times, engaging in substantial investments like the $27 billion restructuring of an energy giant, while adhering to traditional practices [5][7] Group 2: Rockefeller Family - The Rockefeller family, originally from the oil industry, successfully diversified their wealth after the breakup of Standard Oil, with descendants now managing significant real estate and investments [8][10] - Recently, the family has taken unconventional steps, such as insuring lunar assets in anticipation of space tourism, showcasing their continued influence and wealth [12] Group 3: DuPont Family - The DuPont family has a legacy that began with explosives and has evolved into a diverse conglomerate, producing everything from ammunition to beauty products [14][16] - Their unique approach to maintaining family lineage includes strict marriage rules, resulting in a notable focus on preserving their wealth and influence [18] Group 4: Bei Family - The Bei family, with roots in traditional Chinese medicine, has a rich history dating back to the Ming Dynasty, emphasizing cultural heritage and craftsmanship [19][21] - Their contributions to architecture, particularly through the work of architect I.M. Pei, reflect a blend of modernity and tradition, encapsulating their family's legacy [23] Group 5: Wealth Preservation Strategies - These elite families utilize advanced information networks, educational rigor, and a facade of modesty to maintain their wealth across generations [24][25] - The Rothschilds, Rockefellers, and Beis have all demonstrated unique methods of wealth management that intertwine cultural significance with financial acumen [24][25]

Group 1: U.S. Economic Policy Changes - The U.S. tariff policy has undergone dramatic reversals since the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2, with tariffs on Chinese goods raised to 125% and a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on most trade partners[3] - The Federal Reserve's March meeting minutes highlighted economic uncertainty due to tariff policies, leading to a cautious stance from the Fed[5] - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a budget plan to raise the debt ceiling by $5 trillion over the next decade, despite concerns about fiscal sustainability[7] Group 2: Inflation and Consumer Confidence - U.S. March CPI and PPI inflation rates exceeded expectations, with core CPI rising 2.8%, the lowest growth rate in four years[8] - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell to 50.8, the second-lowest level in history, with one-year inflation expectations reaching 6.7%, the highest since 1981[10] - The GDPNow model predicts a Q1 GDP annualized rate of -2.4%, indicating potential economic contraction[11] Group 3: Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets showed volatility, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq rising 5.7%, 5.0%, and 7.3% respectively for the week, but still down 5.4%, 4.8%, and 5.0% since April 2[14] - U.S. Treasury yields surged, with the 2-year yield rising 28 basis points to 3.96% and the 10-year yield up 47 basis points to 4.48%[18] - The dollar index fell 3.06% to 99.77, marking its first drop below 100 since July 2023, with the Swiss franc and euro gaining the most among non-U.S. currencies[22]

Economic Policy - The US has imposed a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum, effective March 12, with threats of additional tariffs on Canadian imports and a 200% tariff on EU wine[6] - February CPI and core CPI in the US recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, both below expectations, with core CPI year-on-year at 3.1%, the lowest since April 2021[10] - The US PPI rose 3.2% year-on-year in February, also below expectations, marking the smallest increase since July of the previous year[11] Market Trends - The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices fell by 2.3%, 3.1%, and 2.4% respectively over the week, reflecting ongoing concerns about government shutdown risks and tariff threats[22] - The US 2-year Treasury yield increased by 3 basis points to 4.02%, while the 10-year yield decreased by 1 basis point to 4.31%[26] - Gold prices rose by 1.6% to $2978 per ounce, with spot gold reaching $3000 per ounce on March 14, driven by market uncertainty and tariff policies[29] Consumer Confidence - The US consumer confidence index for March dropped to 57.9, significantly below the expected 63.1, marking the lowest level since November 2022[14] - One-year inflation expectations among consumers rose from 4.3% in February to 4.9% in March, indicating growing concerns about future economic conditions[14] Global Economic Outlook - The European Central Bank (ECB) is considering pausing interest rate cuts if data supports it, amid ongoing inflation risks[19] - Japan's central bank governor indicated that potential inflation is expected to accelerate as the economy continues to recover, with companies committing to a 5.46% wage increase[21]